The Nuts and Bet Sizing: How to Make Your Opponents Pay
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- Опубликовано: 11 июл 2024
- Bart discusses how he would have chosen a different size in this scenario to get paid off from field callers and how bet sizing may differ if it was instead a situation against the preflop raiser.
0:00 - Intro
1:33 - Preflop
3:46 - Flop
6:39 - Turn
11:57 - River
12:54 - Hero Decision
17:11 - Reveal
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I like a 33% river bet here. Get crying calls from weakish holdings (maybe 2 calls) and possibly induce bluffs from missed draws. It may also get value raises from sets.
Small river bet looks just as strong as a big river bet. But you’re right. Bad players won’t recognize this and will call. Just gotta know your opponent.
I think when you get to the river in a bloated pot vs loose passive players the bet size in dollars is more important to them than the % of pot. I think $1100 only gets called by hands they are unlikely to have. I like betting something like $500 that I think weaker players are more likely to bluff catch against. I also think if a set is present (unlikely) they might still raise vs this sizing. Leading 3 streets into multiple players I don’t even think a passive fish is paying off w KsQs for $1100.
To my mind you either go small, 25-35% pot to induce a bluff, or you jam. The 80% pot bet screams value...screams please call! it is a weird case where the larger bet is more suspicious - I think you get more bluff catches by jamming!
This flop looks like Christmas for our hero... at first glance. The thing is that when we try & extract value from this texture in a 5 way hand; clean run-outs become hard to come by.
It turns out that hero actually gets perfect turn & river cards here. But the way the action went, did hero really want to hit a flush? Did he want the board to pair? Did he want a 5 or 7 to come? How happy is he with a queen?
I'm going large on flop & turn, with the idea I'll have to check by the river. With the actual run-out we get to hero's big question for Bart, but I suspect the caller already knew the answer. Yes, he went way too large on this perfect run-out. Especially with the nuts. And yes, he does have the nuts. Not only is T7 going to raise by the turn, but if we are up against T7 we are simply destined to lose most or all of our stack. Meaning hero's hand *should* be played as the nuts.
I'd have gone $125 on flop. If I get the same 2 callers, I'm going $400 on turn. I'm then checking most rivers. If the board stayed clean like this one did, I'd probably go like $500.
Because this is Texas, I actually think jamming 1600 into 1300 on river gets hero called more frequently by KsXs or better. 1100 comes off as a bit more value, which can get some folds from 2 pair and even lower sets. Kind of an inverse of instincts.
I still don't hate the river bet in this case; Vs just likely had missed draws.
If you're jamming here, for value, would you also be jamming as a bluff? If so, that seems like a spew, if the larger sizing is more likely to get called. If not, then you're playing unbalanced, and your opponents can exploit you.
If ur bluffing multiway in this fashion its just a massive punt no matter what size you use
I'd want to have seen more strength before even betting 1/2 pot, so my starting point would be 1/3 pot, $450. But if the first one calls, the second one is really unlikely to then raise. In fact, neither is likely to raise. I want a bet size which looks like a block bet, and also tempts the one in position to bluff raise (or mistakenly raise for value) after a call. $350 might induce a call or two, but still isn't small enough to induce a raise unless someone has 99, 88, or KK, or is willing to bluff raise. $325 is too close to a calculated 1/4 pot, so I bet $300 and hope for a call and a shove, a fold and a crying call, a fold and a minraise, a fold and a shove, a call and a fold, or a call and an aftercall.
Give two people 5 or 6 ways to fall into the trap of picking an amount of money they're OK with putting in..
Getting max value doesn't always mean getting all the money in, or close to it. Often it means getting SOMETHING in and called, with enough deception to let them make mistakes and put in even more. Who isn't calling $300 there when it might be a sign hero is giving up on a busted draw or pair/draw, and just hoping to get folds often enough to pay for a bluff? Who doesn't consider raising $300 if they have a value hand and want more than $300 themselves?
Betting $1100 is not handing them any rope, and definitely triggers their "That is a lot of money, even if it's less than pot" reaction. It is more value-ish feeling than a shove. Hero let them figure it out. Of course if he got a caller, he'd look like a genius.
With all the missed draws out there, I think I'd take block-bet sizing, like 40% pot, $550-ish, to get value from sets/two-pair/top-pair type hands, and possibly induce a raise from a V who thinks the smaller sizing looks weak.
I always thought block bet meant something like 5%-20% pot. isn't going 40% just value? correct me if im wrong not sure
@@dawsonlipman6241A small-size value bet would be 2/3-75% pot, so 1/3 to half pot could be considered a block bet. I usually split the difference and bet 40%, whether I'm betting for value or bluffing.
We can go smaller with block bet sizing sometimes, but we don't want our river bet to be less than our turn bet of $300. We want to size up, at least a little. When we take block bet sizing here, we're still betting for value, but hoping to get called by weaker hands, or induce a bluff from opponents who interpret the smaller sizing as weakness.
Our opponents' likely flush draws bricked out, so we're targeting 1P/2P and sets for value. Those hands aren't likely to call a 2/3 pot or bigger bet on the river when we go bet-bet-bet. They may call a smaller bet, but it'll look suspicious if we bet $75 (1/3 pot) on flop, size up huge to $300 (70% pot) on turn, and then size down to bet less than 1/3 pot on river. Even betting 40% pot is going to look very value-heavy to any decent opponent, but our opponents will be getting very good pot odds on a call, over 3:1.
When our opponents haven't shown any aggression on prior streets, it's unlikely they'll call with those weaker hands when we take traditional value-bet sizing of 2/3 pot or more. They'll probably fold their weakest holdings, even to a smaller size, which is why we can take that sizing for value or as a bluff. We're only getting called by Kx, 9x, K9, K8, 98, 86, and perhaps some slow-played 99/88/66.
@@dawsonlipman624140% pot is not block sizing. Block sizing tops out at 33% or so.
- what sets?
- Somebody would river a pair of K?
Maybe a bit large on the river bet, but the hero still won a good pot. I think I would have accidentally showed the 7s when I sent the cards back, that may have prompted a player to comment on their hand.
I think you should also consider how much you bet if were bluffing here. This is an opportunity to be polarizing and might make people more likely to bluff catch
What would they be bluff-catching with? Any 9x or 8x holding is going to fold to a big bet when the K comes on the river. Any Kx holding probably isn't getting to the river, unless it was a KsXs flush draw. If we bet big, we're really just targeting Kx hands for value, but if we bet small, we can get looked up by 9x or even 8x, and definitely K9/K8/98/86. If we want to bluff this river, we don't need to bet huge, after taking the lead on the flop and betting 70% pot on turn. Going bet-bet-bet, with any size, is a very strong line. If we'd be betting smaller for value, our bluffs would also be smaller. Polarizing would make more sense if we made our hand on the turn or river, but not when we flop it and get this run-out.
There was zero discussion as to what the hero’s image was at the table, and what the other opponent’s image was. This (especially the former) can have a huge effect on how the villains interpret his river bet.
The question about the correct river bet needs to go beyond “well $550 gets calls from hands that $1100 folds out.”
It’s like, yeah, obviously. The question is at what frequency are the opponents folding more to the 1100? If they call half as often, then it’s a wash. If they call less than half, then 550 is more profitable. If they call over 50%, then 1100 is more optimal.
I think if we do a deep dive then we would find that 1100’folds out more than 50% of what 550 does, but this is the question to be asking.
100% with his playing i might bet large on turn $400 or 70% river.
i wouldnt bother targeting weak hands in this multiway pot on the river. Id just jam and target the slowplayed sets. Much better than trying to get crying calls with a small bet. The fact that you bet is strenght enough. I dont think you will be getting called by a 9 on 33% pot bet as often as you think. Also jamming is also always pretty sus by itself. You never know when villain wanna decide that he had enough. Also the more you jam the better :D. Getting that aggressive imagine is so valuable.
Just my humble take
It's hard for me to imagine that sets, and two pair, folding to that bet sizing on and such an uncoordinated board. Therefore, I believe the villains were on large missed draws and would not have called a river bet of any size.
They might have raised as a bluff with their busted draws if hero bet smaller, or they might have called with 1P/2P holdings. It's unlikely either opponent flopped a set, or even two pair, the way this was played. Hero was in the straddle, so his range is pretty wide, and this board smashes it. If we're trying to get value from opponents who are pretty capped at 1P/2P, we should bet smaller.
@@1vailchris I completely agree 👍
@@Williy_Nilly I do think it's possible that either V could have K9 or K8, especially Ks8s. It's not impossible that either V has 98/96/86 and folded. More likely, the V's had busted draws or 1P hands. I don't think it would be that hard for either V to fold 2P, given the line hero took in this hand. He donk-led flop into four opponents, including the PFR, then went bet-bet-bet with increasingly larger sizing. He really doesn't have any bluffs with that line, so it's pretty easy to get away from 2P.
@1vailchris Still, his preflop action is at besr AA. How does the board runout beat a set or two pairs? Given the pot odds, that's a call all day.
@@Williy_Nilly Whose pre-flop action? The PFR's or hero's? I don't think hero is flatting pre-flop from the straddle with AA, after UTG1 raises and gets three callers. When anyone bets into four opponents on the flop, that's pretty strong, and usually isn't a bluff. If anyone is going to bluff there, it'll be the PFR who c-bets as a bluff, or if the PFR checks, one of the two V's behind him might stab at it as a bluff. When hero donk-leads into the PFR and three other opponents, that's SUPER strong. He's repping top set or a flopped straight. When he gets two callers, and then bets the turn again, that's even MORE strong. Either opponent might be calling turn with 9x or Ks8s, or even 98/86, but 1P hands like 9x and 8x are folding when the K comes on the river. Even 98 is now losing to K9/K8, in addition to hero's flopped sets and straights. They really can't call a huge bet with just middle two pair, even getting a little better than 2:1. The way hero played this, 98/86 are just pure folds, and even K9 is a somewhat loose call. Certainly not an insta-call, when hero takes this absurdly strong line.
Damn I like a river check here… villains sets and two pairs are going to value bet and all missed draws as well. I don’t think those hands check back the river so you don’t miss value. You miss value from bluffs by betting any size on this river.
Not a mistake IMO. At this point the caller is representing ONLY a set or better. Given it's multiway you can even say he is representing only 99 or better. A 98 type of hand never bets river, only check calls. So from V's perspective, it doesnt matter the bet, if you have anything worse than a set (or even with a low set) you are just bluff catching. And, in this run out, where there are 2 very obvious draws that missed (JT and spades) you want to be as polar as possible, because if your opponent has 98, he thinks: "I block top set. Is a lot more likely that he has a missed draw than specifically 10-7s or 5-7s". I think caller played this perfect and his opponents probably just didnt have a hand. Given all the missed draws you want to be polar because any 2 pair or better hand should be calling.
If hero had a set, he'd likely slow down after getting two callers, either of which could have T7 or 75. He's repping a straight. Since his line looks so strong, he should size down on the river, to get value from sets, two pair, and random KsXs hands that ran into top pair. No way any of those hands can call a huge river bet.
The caller could have missed draws in his hand. So you can get calls from a single pair for a smaller sizing that ultimately may fold for and all in. You may also induce a bluff here from a missed draw that know they can only win this pot with an all in bet themselves.
@@1vailchrisAny 2 pair or set should be calling any size here. There is no point in playing turn and folding river when every draw misses. And your argument for Hero makes no sense, because we want the Villain's to put us on a bluff, no one is gonna bluff small into 2 people when every draw missed so you have to bet big.
@@pedro.gandra What 2P or sets does either V have when they just flat call the flop on this wet board? Every 2P or set is going to want to raise there. The more likely 2P combo would be K9 or Ks8s, but that's not that many combos. Hero donk-led flop into four opponents, including the PFR, then barreled turn, and bet river. That's an incredibly strong line with few if any bluffs. 2P is not a strong enough hand to call any size here. This is a spot where we need to size down if we want to get value, and even our bluffs don't need to be huge, when neither opponent looks like they have a very strong hand on this runout.
If you don’t have spades but do have the straight is a check to induce a spade bluff a better play?
Better to bet our hand than to risk it getting checked through. We can bet smaller, like 1/3-1/2 pot, and get called by a lot of 1P/2P type holdings, possibly even raised by some busted flush draws.
Turn is an overbet to make it look like you're making a play at them with a pure flush draw while sitting on the nuts. If the river bricks out then, blast. River as played is a pure jam to make it look like a missed flush. Caller has exactly my way of thinking here : you having two spades makes it less likely for them to have spades, which makes it more likely that they think you have spades (which you even do). Only problem for them is your spades make a straight. So it's a shove. Anything below that is too value-y
How many players are donk-leading into four opponents (including the PFR) on the flop, with just a flush draw, on this super-wet board that smashes all the pre-flop callers' ranges? His donk-lead on the flop is super-strong. He's got almost no bluffs in his range with this line. He's repping top set at a minimum, but more likely a straight. They're not calling a turn over-bet with 1P or a draw, and probably not even 2P. When he donk-leads flop and gets two callers, then he follows that up with an over-bet on the turn, he's probably folding out everything but T7, which beats him, and will probably come over the top with a raise, putting him an awful spot with his specific hand.
What about QsTs, QsJs, A2ss, A3ss, A4ss, a8s, A10s, 10s8s, 16 combos of JTo, possibly even A7o 12 combos, i think there are a more potential missed draws especially in a loose texas game, we can check and induce bluff vs all these hands and the hands that would have called our bet will bet for value themselves and we can raise all in
Also sets and 2 pair are raising earlier at a high frequency so what are we really hoping to get called by?
Never played in TX. Are they really going to bluff the river if hero checks, after hero donk-led flop into four opponents, including the PFR? What story is he telling if he checks the river? "I was on a flush draw that missed"? If so, then he can't call if either V bets, so they can just check back with all their 1P and 2P holdings. If they were also on a draw that missed, a lot of those AsXs holdings are going to win in a show-down, so they don't need to bluff. And a lot of those other bluffs might be afraid he's planning to check-call with KsXs. After hero donks flop and bets turn, there's no reason to think they're going to stab at the pot if he checks river. He should just bet small for value and hope to get called by 1P/2P.
nice
Can you fix boards in background where they are the same height
Shush, or he'll go back to the fake bookshelves background.
I jam the river trying to cooler one of the two players that have already shown some interest in the hand. I don’t think anything folds to $1600 that calls $1100. I am also never bluffing any river into two players. I don’t even understand the question of needing to ask “well what are you bluffing with here” with this hand. This is a live game against passive bad players. What am I missing?
I like 600-700 river bet to get 2 callers vs 1100 to get one caller.
a missed draw won't call a single $ bet. The other one had a top pair (99), so, he is not calling a K river either. Nobody calls anything on this river. The true value lies in Turn bet...should be 100%: $430.
@@pot_kivach160 all kings with flush draw would call small river bets being last to act. All sets will call as well. So let’s say we get $600 $700 twice that’s 1200-1400. That’s more profit than 1 caller at 1100-1200. Of course all missed draws will fold anyways.
@@mattfox5933 what sets? No set would arrive on river this way. KXs is most likely beat on the river bet. (H must have two pairs or better, as pair of QQ/JJ not supposed to bet this river).
Did any of them tank/fold? It’s likely both had draws or pair + draws that weren’t calling any river bet. Knowing the women was passive and could have a set I like betting big on the river.
I think the caller sized it correctly on the river. His line looks very strong whether he bets 1100 or 600.
The difference is that if he bets $600, his opponents will be getting >3:1 pot odds on a call, and they might even get spicy and raise. The V's look capped at 1P or 2P at best, the way this was played. They're not paying off an 80% pot bet, but they might pay off a 40%-1/2 pot bet.
@@1vailchris that's right. (1 opp has a draw, the other opp top pair/draw). K on river might killed any action, as a turn top pair (99) now is the underpair facing a K!! No possible bluff on river: It's hard to believe one would 3-barreled into 2 opponents. Even 30% river bet might've gone non actioned.
I don't really love hero's donk-lead on the flop into four opponents, including the PFR. He probably lost some value by not checking in flow, to let the UTG1 PFR c-bet. UTG1 probably would have c-bet for a similar amount, and gotten called by the MP and BTN, plus maybe even the SB. He probably lost $150 or more by donk-leading here.
Hero's line of donk-lead flop into four opponents, followed by a 70% pot size bet on turn, and an 80% pot size bed on river is insanely strong. He has few if any bluffs when he bets into four opponents including the PFR on the flop, and almost no bluffs on the river, after two V's call flop and turn. Neither V is likely to have a set here when they just flat call flop and turn in a multi-way pot. The V's are most likely capped at 1P or 2P at best. If he wants to get value on the river, he really needs to bet smaller, like $500-$600, laying his opponents >3:1 pot odds on a call.
UTG1 would not c-bet flop.
Hero just got greedy with a dream run-out. If he just duplicates his $300 Turn-bet on the River, that would have signaled "weakness". He might have got 1 caller for sure...and maybe a bluff-raise.
He essentially jizzed his pants when gf started unbuttonning her top.
I agree. Betting duplicate amounts in small/mid stakes signals a medium strength hand
lol on the cheese whiz 💦
Despite Bart saying the "same bet" sizing is a tell indicating a weak hand, from what I've seen at low stakes, it's more likely to be a value bet from a bad rec who doesn't know how to card read or get max value by sizing up. They basically think, "well, my $300 bet got called, so they should also call this next $300 bet."
120 bb bet on river signals weakness??
Yeah this deep I'm 3 betting here with all the money in the pot.
Of course YOU do!
@@relaxationmeditationsleep2934
I was thinking $450-$600 on the river.
I would’ve definitely bet more on the turn. Maybe shoved or check shoved because it might look like a draw. This sounds like a bunch of chasers in this game
In all the discussion of what you are targeting with your bet sizing, there's no discussion of your own balance. In this case I think about what I would bet with 8s 7s, which I would have played exactly the same on the flop and turn as hero did with this effective-nuts hand (and I would have, as well). I wouldn't want to make a block sizing with my missed combo draw turned bluff, so I don't want to do so with this hand, either.
If you use a smaller bet size, hoping T9 will make a hero call, then aren't you making yourself exploitable where he can start making hero calls on your bigger bets and fold the smaller ones?
Would you really bet 8s7s on the river, when the K comes out? You're now losing to Kx, in addition to all the 9x, better 8x, 2P and sets in your opponents' range, and blocking their missed draws, making it more likely they have some thin value. I'd think most 1P + missed draw hands would just check river and hope it checks through. It's unlikely our opponents are going to turn a worse hand into a bluff on this run-out, and many may not even bet all their better hands for value. Most Kx, 9x, and 8x hands are going to just check-back. Even 98/86 might check back, the way this was played. If we're going to bluff, we don't necessarily need to go huge, if we're trying to get folds from the hands that would just check-back. With neither opponent showing any aggression, a bet of 40% pot should be enough to take it down.
@@1vailchris I agree with your analysis that their most likely hand is thin value. That's exactly the time to bluff.
@@stevezagieboylo9172 Just because V most likely has thin value doesn't necessarily mean he's going to fold to a bet. He's probably not folding any 2P, probably not folding a rivered top pair, and may get sticky with 9x. If we're going to bluff the river here, we don't want two spades. We want our opponent to have hands like 8s7s. It's one of the worst hands to barrel the river, after getting called on flop and turn.
I'm skeptical about playing 8s7s the way hero played this. Are you really going to donk-lead the flop, into four opponents, including the pre-flop raiser, with just middle pair and a combo draw, then barrel turn, and then bluff huge on the river? I could see the donk-lead on flop, but not the triple barrel when we get called by two opponents.
@@1vailchris You can't expect every bluff to work. If you are bluffing between half pot to pot, and only half of them work, you're making money.
So, yes, I would frequently bet the river if my combo draw missed. However, I wouldn't want to make a blocking bet size (which I consider to be about a quarter pot). The whole point of the blocking bet there is to allow his very thin value bets to call. Of course, if I'm bluffing, I don't want his thin value bets to call, I want them to fold. So I think that I should also be betting bigger when I have value, as well, to have a balanced range.
I know at least two people whom I regularly play against for whom a smallish bet on the river is always a strong hand and a very big bet is always bluff. Guess who makes a lot of money from those two players.
@@stevezagieboylo9172 no, we can't expect every bluff to work, but we certainly don't want to bluff when it's least likely to work, and we don't need to dust off a ton of money bluffing huge when a smaller size will work just as well.
Lead pot on flop
the thumbnail 💀
so was it TCH??
not that the opponnents are really thinking about this but this river sizing is really awkward because ur left with such a small amount behind. decent players prob think this is significant but these opp's maybe not
with passive players i'm jamming the river. 2p and set hands won't fold.
What sets do the V's have here, when they flat call flop and turn? I'd think sets would raise flop or turn. Some V's may raise flop or turn with a flopped 2P. The most likely 2P combo would be Ks8s, which is just one combo.
Why call it a straddle when it’s mechanically just a identical to raising to that amount anyways?
Because they aren't mechanically identical. A straddle can re-open the action (raise) if it gets back to him with calls whereas a raise cannot re-open action if it goes back to them with calls.
Caller said the female villain would just call down with sets. Did u miss that part?!?!
All Kings will call 25%-30% pot bet. All two pairs will call. Bottom sets will call. I’d go for two callers instead of one caller. They will fold out big bets though.
You’re alright. Anybody with any value would call you
Neither had a real hand. Nothing you bet gets called. Just gotta go big. If I had 89 or a set I’m calling you all day. It is what it is
And neither can bluff here. Middle dude can’t bluff with a guy behind and the last to act jamming would look insane. You played it correctly to get paid when it’s possible to get paid
No reason to bet so much. Most likely they have nothing. You want to allow them the call with weak hands or bluff with missed draws
It's nothing but a jam on the river!
true.
@relaxationmeditationsleep2934 Why more than likely a hand strong enough to call all in would have raised you on flop or turn. The way the opponent played the hand it more than likely a draw or a one pair holding at best. Give them a price they may have to make a crying call or if the player is more advanced see your bet as weakness and try to put pressure on you.
He’s doesn’t want to say as he plays there a lot. Then very next thing he says indicates where he was
I hate the lead for 75. I would have gone for 250! EVERY str8 is perfect for an overbet because you are unblocking all sets, all 2pairs, all overpairs and pairs!!!
You're going to over-bet pot on the flop? You're folding out all the flush draws and two over-card type hands that would call a small flop bet, and only getting value from 2P/sets, and maybe some over-pairs.
@@1vailchris And therefore the overbet gets way more value!
Don't forget that we are double blocking the FD.
@@relaxationmeditationsleep2934 Don't forget hero was in the straddle, so he has the widest range. If anyone can have a straight here, it's him. He donk-led into four opponents, including the pre-flop UTG raiser. His line is already insanely strong, when he does that. He's never bluffing, and almost never betting a weak hand for value. If we want max value, the last thing we'd want to do is over-bet when we donk lead here.
In this case, his donk-lead gets an immediate fold from the PFR and the SB, so he probably lost value. If hero checked, UTG might have c-bet a similar amount, and if he had, MP and the BTN would still have called. Even SB might have called. His 1/3 pot bet sizing is fine, if he wants to donk-lead, because he can get looked up by more hands in his opponents' ranges, hands that are just going to insta-fold to an over-bet. It's hard to flop one pair, much less 2P or a set, so there's no reason to think any of his opponents are going to call if he bets huge. They're certainly not calling with their draws.
unblocking something (all sets, 2 pairs, overpass) that does not exist??
It’s crazy that this guy can call in and talk about his donk frequencies and ranges, but doesn’t know that the “effective stack” means how much the player with the lowest stack has… not what his stack might be. It’s only relevant what the lowest stacks are because that’s all you can put it the pot. Weird