I feel bad for Rice to be honest. They are the only school from the original SWC still not in a P4 conference. I hope they have football success in the future so that they can be reunited with their old conference foes.
Rice has half the students of an already small prive school like TCU. U of H is big and Texas A&M has a strong presence being an hour away. theres 120k students in both those schools alone
@@samelmudirTCU is private not public. But everything else is pretty accurate. But they deserve (Rice) to be in a Power Conference moreso than other schools and definitely moreover than WazzU and OzzU of the PAC2.
Rice seems to be content with where they are now. They are a private academic school after all, and I think for most of them it's mostly too late to push for better athletics, unless they were already at a high level of performance, like Duke or Stanford. Maybe if Tulane is able to prove me wrong though, then I could see it.
To defend your methodology, if Harvard or Yale decided to ditch academic requirements and put money into football they would be instantly admitted to the Big10 in my opinion because every university wants to be associated with them and their money would make them competitive
The problem with that would be the Ivy League schools not giving their athletes scholarships. They would also have to change that aspect to be competitive
@@itsjohnnyr8560Keep in mind, though, what makes the Ivy League the Ivy League is simply the athletic conference structure those schools find themselves in. Otherwise, Stanford would also be in the Ivy League. If they really wanted to gain more money thru football (as if they didn’t have enough) they could simply leave the Ivy League, go through a transitional period to fill the teams up with scholarships, and join the B1G or SEC with next to no issue
@@mrclean30 But that doesn't make the methodology bad or the idea they're valuable wrong. We all know they'd never leave or give scholarships. But on the crazy hypothetical they decided they'd want to....both the Big Ten and ACC would be tripping over themselves trying to add them, and the schools are rich enough and have enough name recognition to get ANY good, smart athlete they want. They're highly valuable candidates....they just have no desire to ever pursue it.
As a new middle school math teacher about to start this fall, your methodology uses what's called "Inductive Reasoning" which is when broad statements are made from some data to create conjectures. Inductive reasoning can be helpful for some cases, such as extrapolating from carefully designed trials. For example, if a random sample of a specific population shows a correlation in improved health with a new drug, it can be induced that the drugs will probably be helpful for others if the study only consists of that specific population. In this case when most people acknowledge for obvious reasons that San Diego St or USF aren't less valuable than Harvard or Yale in this context despite what the numbers say, then there is definitely some truth to your methodology.
@@lukeontheplains Thanks! That means a lot. Also sorry for the "UCF has more nattys than KSU" comment a while back. My new job is in Houston and I'm becoming a Houston fan, so I wanted to do some AAC vs Big 12 trolling :)
To be fair the last time Louisville was a G5 team was in 2004-05 when they were in CUSA. People forget the first year the AAC existed in name it was still had 1 year left on their tv contract and BCS auto bid. Both them and Rutgers were still power conference teams that year.
@deanzaZZR I think more like the AAC had to suffer having Rutgers. Let's not act like they were some power in sports. They had a couple of good years in the big east. Louisville leavjng hurt the AAC. Nobody cared about Rutgers. I'm sure they're laughing all the way to the bank, but sports wise, they were not a big loss.
As a TCU fan, I still remember the days when winning 3-4 games was an accomplishment. This really puts into perspective how far that program has come, getting back to its glory days.
@@29Texan I remember when TCU was in CUSA. They are a good case in why it's OK to promote worthy programs to the P4. If given an opportunity, many programs could shine imo.
I think ever since they have that stud LaDainian Tomlinson along with stud coach gary patterson in the late 1990s, TCU has been very good in most years.
Gotta be Memphis. In the last 6 years, they have made the Cotton Bowl, mulitple 10 win seasons, had 2 #1 recruiting classes in basketball, and have a great womens soccer team, just in case that matters. These are good things for even a power conference.
There has to be something bigger going on behind the scenes for Memphis to keep getting passed over. It just doesn't make any sense why SMU got the nod over Memphis in the ACC. Or why they weren't chosen to join the Big 12 along Cincinnati and Houston.
@kizitokatende412 Women's soccer yeah I understand that part. The a c has incredible women's soccer, so I figured it wouldn't hurt to throw that in. They are by far the best G5 program and a top 15 program now. You gotta brag on the things you have sometimes lol. For the sake of this guy study, yes, the basketball doesn't matter, but it still shows the potential they have in basketball. Now granted, if UConn can't get in, then yes it doesn't matter. But not many group of five programs have the number one class in anything, much less the #2 sport. It also shows they are head and shoulders above the other schools in basketball. They need to do better with the talent they've gotten though. Their tournament runs have been disappointing.
@ReinSouls I agree. Not many people probably realize this, but Memphis won more games in football than any other AAC team. That includes the three that went to the big twelve and SMU. They only parlayed one NY6 out of all that however, missing an FG to win the game On the last play of the game against un defeated UCF in 2017, Blowing a second half double digit lead in 2018 in the AAC Championship game against another undefeated UCF team, and the. Jake elliott missed a FG against Houston in 2015 To win the game and make the championship game. That was a game they easily would have won. All of those field goals missed were by Kickers, who played in the n f l last year, so it makes it even harder to take for Memphis fans. I asked some big twelve fans, and UCF fans in particular were shocked Memphis wasn't invited. I heard two things.. 1) Memphis is the only university that doesn't happen on campus football stadium or basketball arena. Because of the layout of the city, It is virtually impossible for that to happen. The football stadium is not very far away, though, Maybe a mile or two, But it's not on campus. 2) crime. I heard over and over that they think Memphis is a cesspool of crime, and they don't want to go there. I don't know how much factor this could actually play, And I don't know how true it is. I've been to memphis many times and never had any issues, and Always had fun there. It's much prettier than its reputation, Once you get past certain areas. I was a big fan of the AAC, and Other teams had up and down years. ucf would be good for 2 years and then fall back into mediocrity...same with Cincinnati and Houston. The one constant was Memphis. Always really good but struggled to win it all. Sorry for the long response lol.
The biggest omission here is potential. While Rice has the cash, a school like Memphis has the "want to", as in they want to be good in athletics. Schools with a combination of potential market and potential recruiting grounds, while unproven, may be better long-term bets than schools who may have more money or better academics, but have proven to be generally bad at sports..Just my opinion. Great video
@@JB-tl8rjPretty easy. Which teams are winning more. Which universities spend more equivocally on sports to their endowment. Which universities spend more on facilities. Obviously things low TV markets matter more than anything else but the universities have to be committed to sports.
cool concept for the formula! even if it didn't turn out like you wanted/expected, it's a fun thought exercise when so many people will confidently assert that only one or two factors matter why a school will/won't be moving up soon. i also feel obligated to mention as an oregonian that "ozzu" isn't a thing people call osu like they do for wazzu. nice work overall, as always!
You could use a multiplier for whether a School is the state flagship. Also some way to score things based on what the school would do for other teams in the conference, not what they do for themselves.
Hey Cedric, lucky for you I did the math for every other G5 not featured in the video, here's what UAB, UTSA and FAU all scored: UAB: 102.2 UTSA: 72.77 FAU: 66.86
My favorite outcome from the new wave of realignment was the Big Ten disolving divisions, which does benefit my favorite team and my dad's favorite team.
I need more of this kind of content. It's probably weird but I really love nerding out over college football conference histories, the behind the scenes stories of what really happens, the team histories.. all of it is great. Make more, please! Every other day, no breaks allowed! Lol kidding
Honestly USF is a dark horse pick for this imo, they’re getting an on campus stadium soon, they have been in a power conference before, they’re in a large media market, they have a rival in UCF in the Big 12 already. And they are a massive school in terms of size and alumni, most of whom stay close to home. I think so long as the team starts to find consistent success they’ll be one of the hotter commodities
Great Video! Some other categories to consider- - Amount of athletic teams at each school - Athletic department total budget and revenue - Type of University (SEC and BIG TEN are mainly flagship public institutions or public or national private research institutions.) (Smaller conferences mostly have land and space grant-funded institutions. (IE: mountain west)
As a tech fan, it pains me to see that we don’t get to play A&M UT anymore. It just sucks that the southwest conference had to die and we’re stuck from the outside looking in essentially just like the rest of big 12 watching rivalries die
Great video, you explained things very well and clearly did a lot of research. Rice's revenue was almost more than the other schools on this list put together. If you take out Tulane, Rice is outspent by the other schools by only 24 million. There are a few schools other Non-Power 4 teams I would be interested in finding out about: Appalachian State, Liberty, Fresno State, UTSA, James Madison, and the military schools (Army, Navy, and Air Force). I'd also be curious to see what North Dakota State and South Dakota State's rankings would be, especially in comparison to some smaller Power 4 teams. If you were interested in doing this conference by conference, seeing which school was the most valuable and least valuable would be fascinating. I realize that is a lot of work, and kind of misses the point of the video.
As a USF fan, I agree. It does seem (after what the pac tried to do recently) that USF, Memphis, Tulane and UTSA may move as a package. All four making the “joint statement” that we were committed to aac over pac-2, to me, read as: show us the right money and all four of us are yours to have
@@kyleberryhill7627 it works best for everyone. We bring 4 big markets which is attractive to conferences. Memphis, USF and Tulane have all had some decent football success in recent memory (albeit that past couple years Usf struggled w Jeff Scott). All four have appropriate stadium venues for Power football. And Tulane and USF have been in power conferences before My guess is the ACC but probably only after the big teams leave, which makes me wonder if it’s worth joining a non-power acc
Would you ever consider doing a video where you predict conference realignment up to a certain year, year by year, not for the purpose of it having any chance of it being anywhere near right but because it is always interesting looking at past predictions for the present that were way off, and you can’t have those kind of predictions without having had present predictions for the future at some point
The sad part is that football success is dependent on the realignment process itself. I fully admit I’m biased as a Southern Miss fan, but we had a long run as a “giant killer” and some called us “Boise State before Boise State”. We had 17 consecutive winning seasons between 1995-2011. Look at all those move ups…. How many of them were in conference with Southern Miss? Louisville, Cincinnati, TCU, Houston, SMU, UCF….. and on your potential list, Memphis, USF, Rice, Tulane, ECU…. We watched all those teams leave us behind because we are in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, and TV market was paramount in the realignments of the early 2000s. Then, as recruits saw us “falling” in status, along with a disaster of a coaching hire in 2012, we fell off the map in football success. Now, in any argument of “what have you done for me lately?” we not only have a bad TV market, but also pretty mediocre football success. Southern Miss will never have a chance at a Power 4 conference slot. I have to accept this, and just keep supporting my team as a G5 who might one day have a chance to play in the G5’s slot in the playoff.
Dont really get the "Boise State before Boise State" if your listing 1995-2011. Contrary to popular belief but Boise State's rise started well before 2006. Boise State joined FBS Division 1 in 1996. They have had a winning season every single year since 1997 and had their first 10 win season in 1999. They had 2 undefeated seasons prior to 2006 in 02 and 04, and in the 5 years prior to 2006 they went a combined 53-12. Additionally, there really is no team as consistent in winning as Boise State. As crazy as their 28 consecutive winning season streak is, since 1946 Boise State has had a grand total of 4 losing seasons ever in 78 years (95% successful season record). Chris Petersen doesnt even rank in the top 3 coaches all time at BSU for winning percentage. In fact BSU's own consecutive winning season record is actually 37 years which spans their time from Division 3 to Division 2 to Division 1 AA and includes 4 national title teams in these divisions.
@@MattBuild4 we ended Bear Bryant’s home winning streak in 1980. We have been division 1-A/FBS since 1959, and were doing what you guys did to Oklahoma year in and year out…. Ole Miss and Mississippi State stopped playing us because we beat them so many times. Nothing against Boise State, but no one looked at you as “Giant Killers” until the Fiesta Bowl game.
@@myislander Ehh ok, I mean my intention is not to take anything away from Southern Miss, but Boise State beating P5 teams was never really about being "giant killers", the reason they scheduled P5 teams is because they realized that Division 1 FBS would constantly screw over undefeated teams and unlike every other division of college football had a garbage post season that wouldnt allow undefeated teams to make the post season. So they thought if they beat P5 teams they would get recognition to make titles...... but this hasnt really happened - did lead to some pretty astronomical lawsuits though, which imo directly led to the creation of the CFP..
@@MattBuild4 fair enough. I think we are both looking at the same issue from different perspectives. In any fair system, both Boise State and Southern Miss would have the same opportunity to play for a championship as everyone else. Why should we have to be in a special conference just to get fair access to the championship?
I love dynasty mode in cf25 cause of the custom conferences. Making the Pac-12 a Conference again and putting Fresno State in the Big 12 is a blast. That would have been a dream come true if that happened. But it looks like we are stuck in the Mountain West making pennies. Anyway, great video.
Interested to know what Liberty would’ve scored here. Growing alumni base and lots of money (even if it’s not in the endowment). They’ve proven they can beat teams like VT, Arkansas, and Baylor already. Would be a good fit in the ACC with lots of rivalry game opportunities!
I imagine it’d be interesting. They have a decent endowment and large alumni base, but academics are below the bottom of the barrel and football success is all super recent. They also have the X-factor of being a pariah amongst a lot of schools. I think the ACC would rather implode than take an ultra-religious school with bad academics. They’re like the Pac-12 in that regard
I don't think they would be good fit at they just dont have the academic .I'm a uva fan i asume you think us and va tech would be there rival i dought that.
@@batraptor4 my thinking on rivals would be UVA and maybe Wake Forest. If the ACC expands it’s because they’ve lost teams - perhaps VT and UNC. The proximity factor would be a better fit than having UVA play Washington St.
@@adamjacquez9495 Maybe, but Liberty takes it to a whole other level of bad academics. Also, that X Factor will always be important because perception and, by extension, keeping potential viewers is very important. Besides, after that horrific Fiesta Bowl, I’m not sure any P4 conference views Liberty as a serious school in academics or athletics. If they were having more success in a better conference, then I think a more serious conversation could be had
I think a big issue for this is the use of endowment - I’m not fully well versed on the exact definitions but it’s not actually the entire pool of a school’s budget and it tends to be a significantly higher portion for all private universities, even ones that functionally have less resources than some big state schools that have lower listed endowments
Some FBS schools need to move down to FCS. I am wondering if the P4 conferences will start shedding the bottom dwelling schools, as they contribute little to the conference other than taking money that the powerhouses could have.
Capacity of the football stadium- and the ability to fill it consistently- seems like it's one of the two most important factors. Either that, or it tends to map consistently to a couple of other factors that are equally important. So keep an eye on who's making upgrades to their facilities, I guess. Getting yourself into the top 50 is not an absolute requirement but it sure does seem to help a lot.
I smiled a little bit when you mentioned Toledo and Buffalo. More importantly Buffalo. I participated in a Mock Draft with The Big Mountain Podcast where we chose schools to make up our own new conferences. I picked Buffalo as one of my conference's schools. I got bashed so much for that pick. When you watch this video and see how well Buffalo performs in ratings (albeit flawed?), it should make you think twice about my pick of Buffalo. It's not crazy to think down the road Buffalo could be a "sleeping giant" kind of college football market.
It's changed it in a big time way but they've tried thru so many numbskull ideas & policies to kill NCAA Football but cannot. It's THE Greatest Game on Earth (& I'm a fan of all the European/South American soccer leagues and their wondrous pageantry,but NCAA Football is THE s**t) & will forever be. It's different and it will take time to get used to that but it will survive & thrive. #YouCannotKillNCAAFootball #ItsAlwaysFootballSeasonInHeaven 🐕🏈
Temple got snubbed IMO, almost a billion-dollar endowment, 4th best media market in the country, and a comparably large alumni base. It's a shame the AD has made poor coaching hires since Matt Rhule left, because if Temple was able to maintain even a fraction of Rhule's success (i.e. making bowl games every year or two), they would definitely be in the discussion for a P4 move.
Awesome video. More numbers and more teams please! Analyze all current P4 teams (conference by conference) to see who would get left out if their conference imploded. Potentially very interesting videos stemming from this equation 🤔
The one thing I have to say about conference realignment is…well, nothing about conference realignment makes sense. Except it’s all about money. $$$.💰💵💴 And even then, it STILL doesn’t make sense. I don’t have any complaints about Lukas’s methodology for this video. I’m just happy to be a fan of Lukas, and that I love his videos. 👍👍
would love for this to become a series examining other G5 schools! I am fascinated what the scores would be for Air Force, Liberty, James Madison, App State, Fresno State, & UTSA. I would love if u could potentially do FCS schools as I am fascinated what the other Ivy League schools scores would be with how insane Harvard & Yale scores were.
Hello randomnerd2332, I did the math for all the other G5 teams following Dalukes's methodology in like a separate spreadsheet and put it in a different comment you can find if you like scroll far enough. Here's the scores for all the G5 schools you were interested in. Air Force: 76.08 App State: 101 Fresno State: 113.2 JMU: 26.9 Liberty: 100.5 UTSA: 72.77
UH's endowment is a little over 1 billion and is getting an additional 1.3 billion from the state because of a recent prop that was passed last year. Just thought I'd throw that out there.
That background music either needs to be turned way the hell down or switched to something less shrill. Preferably both as it’s so bad that you can hardly be heard and are just drowned out. Distracting af.
The methodology isn't too bad, but I decided to crunch the numbers on the Akron Zips since they're not exactly the cream of the crop even in the MAC. They'd get a score of 83.44 which isn't promotion-level but better than a few options while in the realm of Boise and Ozzu. I think this largely comes down to having a pretty respectable endowment and being in the same market as Cleveland to end up 19th in that category. But at the same time, they've appeared in 2 bowl games (with 1 win) since 2010 and managed a negative score in academics. All this to say, if Akron can get its academics and football program turned around for an extended time, look out for them to quietly enter the conversation as a Power conference candidate.
What you (we) need is a couple of TV execs who actually have their fingers on the "eyeballs" data. It comes down to that, right? How many "eyeballs" a school can garner, and not just in boom times but in down times too.
I always loved moving Buffalo to the ACC or American/Big East in my NCAA dynasties, interesting to see they're actually a pretty good candidate in the real world!
I think the endowments are certainly one way of analyzing the relative alumni support, but the athletic budget may be more important to conference realignment.
I liked it better when conferences was based on geographical rivalries. It also helped to have two-tier conferences... Big Ten - MAC, PAC - Mt West, SEC - Sun Belt, ACC (Big East) - C-USA. The new alignments make absolutely ZERO sense, but having every major university in California scrambling to join a conference outside of California is totally expected in context of Newsom.
Memphis should be at the top of the list. Recent success at football and basketball, and centrally located to join any conference. Tulane has been good on the football field lately, is a good academic school and is also centrally located. UTSA is in a good sized city (San Antonio) and has had recent success at football. San Diego State hasn't been as competitive, but has a nice new stadium and a good TV market. UNLV brings the Las Vegas excitement to any league that wants them. After that group, Boise State and Fresno State traditionally field competitive football teams but don't bring much else to the table. Air Force has been good at football lately and is good academically. USF is in a big market on the East Coast but hasn't done much on the field recently.
I used to live in San Diego and can tell you that no one in the metro area gives a crap about SDSU sports. Just because it’s a big city with potential viewers, doesn’t mean anyone will watch.
I think the pure mathematics is what is making it flawed. Instead of every rank being a pure number - instead if you had each factor say on a scale of 1 - 10 (whole numbers only) then for instance the endowment for Harvard, Yale, Rice, TCU, SMU, BYU would all be capped at a 10 while Rutgers would get a 9. Once an endowment is "big enough" - anything beyond that is pretty irrelevant.
If somebody hasn’t already suggested it, I would try making a general linear model with the data from the “new” P4 schools and then applying that formula to the potential P4 schools
On what planet is UTEP considered a possible power 4 team and not UTSA. It’s has a huge market, recent football success with more certain to come in the future and probably a fast growing alumni base. I seriously would put them in a PAC-12 2.0 or some kind of “Misfit Toys” conference if somehow the current conference system collapses under its own weight.
Hey Dalukes, could you possibly use this formula with current power 4 teams Think it would be a fun comparison and we could be maybe see team who might get left out if super conference get bigger.
What about tv time slots availability? That should help western teams... I'm not sure but I think the majority of espn's 10 pm eastern games are now only Big 12 Mountain time teams(5) or Stanford and Cal.
One thing that is weirdly important that wasn’t in the formula is location. As we see with the current realignment location didn’t seem to matter much. But for some reason location mattered much more than expected st least maybe only for the pac 12. I guess there weren’t many other options but some of the new additions got in bc of where they’re located
An interesting comparative would be to run this formula against the top 25 P4 schools as a baseline to see how valuable they are in the to know what these theoretical expansion teams are up against upon entry
OU did not go to the SEC to be a middle of the pack team, they went because they wanted to compete for better players and more money equals better facilities, equipment, and NIL deals
I would think football viewership is an important factor. Though it certainly can't be the only one or North Carolina (11th in football viewership in the ACC) wouldn't be as highly sought after. The top four schools in the ACC in this category are Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Louisville.
The only way to make your formula better would be to calculate scores for the P5 and see what makes them better. Or what could be added to the formula.
Definitely Oregon State and Wazzu. The Oregonian mentioned that both schools said they are currently in talks with multiple conferences, some of those being Power 4 conferences
Yes please. As the years go by, and the conference realignment crap gets worse, the more I start to love the MAC and Sun Belt and their desire for regionality.
7:22 TCU’s alumni count seemed so low to me. I had no idea TCU was as small as it is from an attendance perspective. I was thinking it was a 30k student kinda school not a 10k student kinda school
I think a factor here you're not looking at ( and this strengthens buffalo and SDSU even more and UTEP)is that both tv markets are much bigger when you consider both are super close to the borders and they do air in Canada for buffalo and a parts of Mexico for utep and sdsu. I live on the Canadian side of Niagara falls and have gotten local news from Buffalo tv stations since i was born
I think a metric that could be useful would be geographic proximity to a major media market, top 25 let’s say. As a JMU alum we are 2-3 hours away from the DC market. This enabled ~70% of the student population being apart of that market, so when they graduate there is a built in tv viewership in the #5 media market. Also, look at the last five to ten years in average application and admittance rate. Case in point with JMU my class, 2021, had about 3-5k and 15k applied. The school recently had over 30k apply after we got to the Sunbelt and our Football and Basketball success. So an additional metric measuring Basketball success would be effect for schools with continual success in the tournaments and weed out the “once in a lifetime” moments.
Would be interested in Temple as they’re the Philly school market. Delaware was brought up to FBS because they’re in the Philly market along with football success
I'm gonna calculate the scores for every G5 team brb EDIT: Here is every other G5 Team not featured in the video, use this information for your own purposes since this is a flawed system Air Force: 76.08 Akron: 52.09 App State: 101 Arkansas State: 47.83 Army: 68.22 Ball State: 63.55 Bowling Green: 66.55 Central Michigan: 64.66 Charlotte: 61.34 Costal Carolina: 37.77 Delaware: 57.7 (Yes, I know they aren't in the FBS right now, but they will be and they score above a 50 with their Football Prestige value set at 0) Eastern Michigan: 69.84 FIU: 74.22 Fresno State: 113.2 Georgia Southern: 74.22 Georgia State: 94.3 (Atlanta carrying here) Hawaii: 87.4 Jacksonville State: 26.54 James Madison: 26.9 Kennesaw State: 30.7 (Atlanta carrying here as well) Kent State: 74.61 Liberty: 100.5 (They have a 2 BILLION Dollar endowment which coupled with their large "alumni" size and decent Football performance, puts them at 100 despite having a negative academic score) UL Lafayette: 65.42 UL Monroe: 17.13 UMass: 34.47 Marshall: 107.61 (They win all the Bowl Games they get from their middling seasons which ballooned their Football Prestige to 80) Miami Ohio: 97.86 MTSU: 75.48 Missouri State: 9.23 (Yes, not in the FBS yet, but they score worse than every other G5 team) Navy: 64.35 Nevada: 83.98 New Mexico State: 60.43 Northern Illinois: 80.8 North Texas: 110.1 Ohio: 131.04 (The Bobcats score incredibly well with a combo of good endowment, the Columbus Market, winning Bowl Games, having surprisingly good academic rankings and a sizeable alumni base) Old Dominion: 32.85 Sam Houston: 43.02 San Jose State: 74.6 South Alabama: 53.47 Southern Miss: 59.03 Temple: 120.48 (The school that got kicked out of the Big East for being terrible scored incredibly well despite their Football Prestige score only being 30) Texas State: 61.09 Troy: 75.12 Tulsa: 93.7 (I could not find their total Alumni numbers so I had to guess. If they had better Football they'd likely score in the 100s) UAB: 102.2 Utah State: 90.49 (They score 90 with a Market Score of ZERO) UTSA: 72.77 Western Kentucky: 107.19 (Similar case to Marshall, they get buoyed by Dalukes heavily weighting Bowl Game wins) Western Michigan: 82.8 Wyoming: 88.56 Overall some interesting if not flawed and somewhat performative results.
@@lukeontheplains you did :( Don't worry I did the math and Wyo got an 85, not bad all things considered. That being said my main gripe with this video (everyone does it so its nothing personal) is that CSU was given the denver tv market. I get that neilsen groups them together, but god damn you would have a hard time finding CSU anything in the north metro area, much less the further south you go. Fort Collins isn't considered part of the denver metro like boulder is, and Denver is most definitely CU territory. I know that you can't seperate them but that's what is carrying CSU in this expirement.
@@lukeontheplains How do you feel about Ohio University technically being the 4th/5th best G5 Team for Power Conference addition based on your methodology, any thoughts on this development?
@@jupitervideos7702 maybe there needs to be a seperate scoring system that factors in Basketball Excellence. Regardless I'm mot someone who would have expected WKU to be in the 100s but they win enough Bowl Games to do so
Cincinnati and Toledo are not comparable. Cincinnati has two basketball championships, Oscar Robertson, another final four appearance, a recent CFP appearance, multiple NY6 bowl appearances, membership in the big east, historic rivalries with Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, Xavier, etc. UC’s endowment is 3-4x Toledo, same with the number of students. UC didn’t just luck their way into the Big 12, they were a founding member of C-USA which was a very strong conference at the time and competitive in the big east.
I saw an interesting idea the other day, and as a fellow Big 12 guy (Go Cyclones), I'd like to hear some input. You brought up in this video that SMU more or less bought their ticket into the P4. My question is "Could Wazzu and Ozzu do the same?" They settled for a ton of money from the PAC Exodus, so could they use that money to entice say the Big 12? Could the Big 12 even benefit from that money? And if so, would that money be used to lure teams from the ACC away and out of their nightmare of a GOR?
No they can't, because the ~$250 million they got isn't lump sum, its broken up over the next few years. On top of that, the leadership of both schools have pretty much already stated that most of that money has been designated for mainting operating costs, so they can't really use any of it as "fuck you" money. SMU's money doesn't necessarily come from the school itself or the fans, it comes from a fuckload of rich alumni who have been giving that school insane amounts of money for decades.
Surprised not to see Liberty on here. Massive endowment and pretty successful football program for years. Bad academics but still an undeniable rising star.
The fact that San Diego State, Boise State, and Fresno State are sitting in a larger PAC 12 just makes me scratch my head still. TV companies ruining those types of hopes.
Bring in a bunch of G5 teams and labeling them as the new PAC? does not make them a competitive or viable conference. It just makes them the MW with a new name.
I don't think South Carolina's downfall was from adding two conference teams. We had one of the greatest college football coaches retire after spending more time developing the existing roster than recruiting new talent for his last 2-3 years, then his replacement drove the program further into the ground. Also at the same time, UGA and Clemson, our two biggest rivals, became elite programs and were far more desirable to local recruits.
As a B12 fan, that recently added west schools, I think it would be important for the B12 to add schools in important markets that being FB and or BB to the conference. SDSU and get into CA. Plus I would add UConn to add NYC and NE area. Having lived in Houston, Rice is a great university but it’s too small to be a P4 candidate.
At this point, I am completely done with conference realignment. This is honestly getting to a point where I just recommend watching FCS or any of the lower level divisions because they actually know how to make an organized playoff.
@@lukeontheplains I like it. And honestly, they probably do fit. Rutgers has a G5 level football program that weighs them down. Louisville lacks in both market and academics. So they were interesting adds. I've always said for a long time, maybe being biased living in NW Ohio and being a Toledo fan, that Toledo is being MASSIVELY overlooked. I've never considered them for P4 conferences, but when the AAC was expanding and especially when they lost Cincinnati and people would bring up NIU, Ohio, Buffalo, etc. as longshot candidates, I never understand why Toledo didn't more looks. Toledo itself is a fairly small market, but only being an hour from Detroit, 2 or so from Cleveland, being in a talent rich recruiting state, having the best all around football program in the MAC, and playing some good basketball too, I always wondered why they didn't at least get mentioned. In the end I think the MAC is happy being what they are considering they're all similar schools with small budgets and close travel, but I do think if they day comes that there's a massive split and the lower end of the FBS gets left behind....Toledo is one of the MAC schools that likely tries to stay FBS. That also makes me realize one more thing that could maybe be considered here, but might not matter or be too had to add.....athletic budget. I'd imagine that's where the schools like Toledo, Buffalo, maybe even Rice that scored well end up losing out, but then again maybe it doesn't matter because if they got a call up they'd probably spend way more to try to keep up too. I don't know. Definitely an interesting video and I like your work. Even if I don't always agree, it makes me think and I've even learned some things watching your videos.
The realignment was mostly about being able to compete more than money. Oklahoma and Texas didn't want to have their key games at noon. They wanted primetime. Recruiting is the biggest key to realignment.
I’d have added athletic/football budget as a field as well. Buffalo (Football and Basketball) feels like a school that should be too big for the MAC, but also content where it is
Law in your methodology if you leave out natural arrivals, I understand SMU doesn’t have one in the ACC, but that’s where the pocketbook comes in to play
SDSU alum here I really don't think we'll ever get into a Power 4 conference. There was a vote on the table to let us into the Pac-12 after Colorado left.
I really like what you did making this formula. I think the only "flaw" was not factoring in regular season wins in some manner if I understood your explanation right. Since it only takes six wins to make a bowl (Minnesota made a bowl with 5 wins) teams that make a bowl with nine or ten wins are punished in comparison to the teams that made a bowl with six. Regular season wins should definitely be added somehow and maybe give more weight to the postseason. Maybe give them 1 point as you did with bowl wins. And give more weight to the level of bowl the teams play in like how you gave more weight to BCS/CFP. So based on your formula it would look like this, and I'm sure you could come up with something better than what I'm coming up with off the top of my head: Bowl Appearance: 0.5 Bowl Appearance vs P5 : 1 (would not get the 0.5 credit on top of this, but that would be up to you) Bowl Win: 1 Bowl win vs P5: 1.5 BCS/NY6 Appearance: 2 CFP Appearance: 4 (probably less going forward due to CFP expansion) Again that's just me brainstorming because I like these kinds of ideas. Thanks for the video.
I originally had them in there, but their market share as California's 6th or 7th most prominent team and a couple of other factors had them as a less worthy candidate than ECU, so I decided to cut them based on that. Again, the methodology is flawed, but they didn't seem like that good of an addition based on the numbers
Exactly. With the expanded playoffs, they had the perfect opportunity to make all the FBS (Div 1A) teams compete on a level playing field. Go to 16 teams, take all 9 conference champs, and 7 at-large teams. Assuming the bottom 4 G5 champs don't make the field of 12, you would still end up with the same top 11 teams as the 12-team playoff (four P4 champs and 7 at-large teams), but every team would have a chance to play their way in, committee or no committee.
I feel bad for Rice to be honest. They are the only school from the original SWC still not in a P4 conference. I hope they have football success in the future so that they can be reunited with their old conference foes.
Rice has half the students of an already small prive school like TCU. U of H is big and Texas A&M has a strong presence being an hour away. theres 120k students in both those schools alone
@@samelmudirTCU is private not public. But everything else is pretty accurate. But they deserve (Rice) to be in a Power Conference moreso than other schools and definitely moreover than WazzU and OzzU of the PAC2.
@@michaelwall3393 my mind was thinking private but typed public 😅
Rice seems to be content with where they are now. They are a private academic school after all, and I think for most of them it's mostly too late to push for better athletics, unless they were already at a high level of performance, like Duke or Stanford. Maybe if Tulane is able to prove me wrong though, then I could see it.
Rice doesn’t really care about athletics because they’re making bank on their academics. Tbh they’d prolly be better off just not having sports.
To defend your methodology, if Harvard or Yale decided to ditch academic requirements and put money into football they would be instantly admitted to the Big10 in my opinion because every university wants to be associated with them and their money would make them competitive
The problem with that would be the Ivy League schools not giving their athletes scholarships. They would also have to change that aspect to be competitive
@@itsjohnnyr8560Keep in mind, though, what makes the Ivy League the Ivy League is simply the athletic conference structure those schools find themselves in. Otherwise, Stanford would also be in the Ivy League. If they really wanted to gain more money thru football (as if they didn’t have enough) they could simply leave the Ivy League, go through a transitional period to fill the teams up with scholarships, and join the B1G or SEC with next to no issue
there is LITERALLY zero chance they leave the ivy league 😂😂
@@mrclean30 But that doesn't make the methodology bad or the idea they're valuable wrong. We all know they'd never leave or give scholarships. But on the crazy hypothetical they decided they'd want to....both the Big Ten and ACC would be tripping over themselves trying to add them, and the schools are rich enough and have enough name recognition to get ANY good, smart athlete they want.
They're highly valuable candidates....they just have no desire to ever pursue it.
Football is literally one of the few sports where they don’t compete in post season. Lacrosse, and Basketball they compete
As a new middle school math teacher about to start this fall, your methodology uses what's called "Inductive Reasoning" which is when broad statements are made from some data to create conjectures.
Inductive reasoning can be helpful for some cases, such as extrapolating from carefully designed trials. For example, if a random sample of a specific population shows a correlation in improved health with a new drug, it can be induced that the drugs will probably be helpful for others if the study only consists of that specific population.
In this case when most people acknowledge for obvious reasons that San Diego St or USF aren't less valuable than Harvard or Yale in this context despite what the numbers say, then there is definitely some truth to your methodology.
My dad is a math teacher! Good luck with your career!
@@lukeontheplains Thanks! That means a lot. Also sorry for the "UCF has more nattys than KSU" comment a while back. My new job is in Houston and I'm becoming a Houston fan, so I wanted to do some AAC vs Big 12 trolling :)
all good!
To be fair the last time Louisville was a G5 team was in 2004-05 when they were in CUSA. People forget the first year the AAC existed in name it was still had 1 year left on their tv contract and BCS auto bid. Both them and Rutgers were still power conference teams that year.
Both Rutgers and Louisville had to suffer through 1 season in AAC before getting their conference upgrades.
@deanzaZZR I think more like the AAC had to suffer having Rutgers. Let's not act like they were some power in sports. They had a couple of good years in the big east. Louisville leavjng hurt the AAC. Nobody cared about Rutgers. I'm sure they're laughing all the way to the bank, but sports wise, they were not a big loss.
Ya Rutgers and Louisville left a power conference for another power conference
kennesaw state and sam houston state to the sec
With sec recruiting they will be better than vandy
Sewanee and Maryville College to the SEC!
@@pascho1057Vandy may not be strong in fb, but they're usually an annual leader in baseball. Not to mention they're an original member.
To the SEC? Try again. 😉
Tulane and Sewanee (the college of the South) used to be in the SEC at one point
As a TCU fan, I still remember the days when winning 3-4 games was an accomplishment.
This really puts into perspective how far that program has come, getting back to its glory days.
Shoutout to Gary Patterson
TCU really benefited from going to the big 12. Y’all went to the national championship before the horns or the Sooners with y’all!
@@29Texan I remember when TCU was in CUSA. They are a good case in why it's OK to promote worthy programs to the P4. If given an opportunity, many programs could shine imo.
I think ever since they have that stud LaDainian Tomlinson along with stud coach gary patterson in the late 1990s, TCU has been very good in most years.
@@treydrew4021yeah Patterson was huge for that university
Tulane mentioned in another Dalukes banger. You love to see it 😎
Yo it's mvos
Gators video was fire
Gotta be Memphis. In the last 6 years, they have made the Cotton Bowl, mulitple 10 win seasons, had 2 #1 recruiting classes in basketball, and have a great womens soccer team, just in case that matters. These are good things for even a power conference.
There has to be something bigger going on behind the scenes for Memphis to keep getting passed over. It just doesn't make any sense why SMU got the nod over Memphis in the ACC. Or why they weren't chosen to join the Big 12 along Cincinnati and Houston.
You could've left the Women's soccer success and recruiting class part out of it. That will have nothing to do with whether they make a p4 or not
@kizitokatende412 Women's soccer yeah I understand that part. The a c has incredible women's soccer, so I figured it wouldn't hurt to throw that in. They are by far the best G5 program and a top 15 program now. You gotta brag on the things you have sometimes lol. For the sake of this guy study, yes, the basketball doesn't matter, but it still shows the potential they have in basketball. Now granted, if UConn can't get in, then yes it doesn't matter. But not many group of five programs have the number one class in anything, much less the #2 sport. It also shows they are head and shoulders above the other schools in basketball. They need to do better with the talent they've gotten though. Their tournament runs have been disappointing.
@ReinSouls I agree. Not many people probably realize this, but Memphis won more games in football than any other AAC team. That includes the three that went to the big twelve and SMU. They only parlayed one NY6 out of all that however, missing an FG to win the game On the last play of the game against un defeated UCF in 2017, Blowing a second half double digit lead in 2018 in the AAC Championship game against another undefeated UCF team, and the. Jake elliott missed a FG against Houston in 2015 To win the game and make the championship game. That was a game they easily would have won. All of those field goals missed were by Kickers, who played in the n f l last year, so it makes it even harder to take for Memphis fans. I asked some big twelve fans, and UCF fans in particular were shocked Memphis wasn't invited. I heard two things.. 1) Memphis is the only university that doesn't happen on campus football stadium or basketball arena. Because of the layout of the city, It is virtually impossible for that to happen. The football stadium is not very far away, though, Maybe a mile or two, But it's not on campus. 2) crime. I heard over and over that they think Memphis is a cesspool of crime, and they don't want to go there. I don't know how much factor this could actually play, And I don't know how true it is. I've been to memphis many times and never had any issues, and Always had fun there. It's much prettier than its reputation, Once you get past certain areas.
I was a big fan of the AAC, and Other teams had up and down years. ucf would be good for 2 years and then fall back into mediocrity...same with Cincinnati and Houston. The one constant was Memphis. Always really good but struggled to win it all. Sorry for the long response lol.
Memphis is borderline based on this video, if one or two more things swung in their direction, they'll be a good candidate
Rice, San Diego St and USF r all legit p-4 candidates, esp. when accounting for several major factors beyond 'fb prestige.' Excellent cfb content.
USF has been on rather hard times lately. I’m not sure they are P4 material.
Great video man! I’m glad I fell in love with your channel through your conference history videos.
If the ACC gets raided, they should get UConn, USF, Tulane, SDSU, Oregon State, and Washington State.
that would be such an interesting conference. not sure how much higher or lower the media payouts would be, but certainly higher than AAC currently
It would have to be football only for UConn. Their boosters had more than enough of being without the Big East basketball for almost a decade.
I think they could pick up Memphis, Tulane, UTSA and be far better off.
@@Alan-lv9rw You gotta add Memphis to that
How the heck acc gets raided?? SEC has 16 teams, BIG 18 teams, they don't need more teams. Big 12 has 12 teams...ACC > Big 12..
The biggest omission here is potential. While Rice has the cash, a school like Memphis has the "want to", as in they want to be good in athletics. Schools with a combination of potential market and potential recruiting grounds, while unproven, may be better long-term bets than schools who may have more money or better academics, but have proven to be generally bad at sports..Just my opinion. Great video
Memphis’ crumbling facility fits right into the city. It’s part of the charm. I love it. Hope they make it.
Keep an eye on North Texas then. Big market (Dallas) and rich recruiting area.
How do you quantify that as a stastical quantity?
@@JB-tl8rjPretty easy. Which teams are winning more. Which universities spend more equivocally on sports to their endowment. Which universities spend more on facilities. Obviously things low TV markets matter more than anything else but the universities have to be committed to sports.
Power 4 sounds so weird it is sad 😢
litterlay
I'm A Washington state grad and I thiǹk the move to the MWC might be the best thing possible in terms of winning games
cool concept for the formula! even if it didn't turn out like you wanted/expected, it's a fun thought exercise when so many people will confidently assert that only one or two factors matter why a school will/won't be moving up soon. i also feel obligated to mention as an oregonian that "ozzu" isn't a thing people call osu like they do for wazzu. nice work overall, as always!
Had to separate them from Oklahoma State somehow!
Memphis, USF, Tulane
@@brandonh5360 manifesting them to be the next additions to the ACC, after Oregon State and Wazzu
And San Diego St
You could use a multiplier for whether a School is the state flagship. Also some way to score things based on what the school would do for other teams in the conference, not what they do for themselves.
UAB, UTSA, and FAU would be interesting in this formula. I’d like to see where those schools would be.
Those 3 are just too far down the list to be picked up
Also Liberty
@@nevan6815Liberty is barely a school
Hey Cedric, lucky for you I did the math for every other G5 not featured in the video, here's what UAB, UTSA and FAU all scored:
UAB: 102.2
UTSA: 72.77
FAU: 66.86
@@nevan6815Liberty: 100.5
My favorite outcome from the new wave of realignment was the Big Ten disolving divisions, which does benefit my favorite team and my dad's favorite team.
@@JB-tl8rj Penn State?
@@justingoodman9352 Maryland (and Rutgers)
I need more of this kind of content. It's probably weird but I really love nerding out over college football conference histories, the behind the scenes stories of what really happens, the team histories.. all of it is great.
Make more, please! Every other day, no breaks allowed! Lol kidding
Honestly USF is a dark horse pick for this imo, they’re getting an on campus stadium soon, they have been in a power conference before, they’re in a large media market, they have a rival in UCF in the Big 12 already. And they are a massive school in terms of size and alumni, most of whom stay close to home. I think so long as the team starts to find consistent success they’ll be one of the hotter commodities
I hardly watch any sports anymore… but I watch every DaLukes video as soon as I see it uploaded 😂 keep at it!
Great Video!
Some other categories to consider-
- Amount of athletic teams at each school
- Athletic department total budget and revenue
- Type of University (SEC and BIG TEN are mainly flagship public institutions or public or national private research institutions.)
(Smaller conferences mostly have land and space grant-funded institutions. (IE: mountain west)
As a tech fan, it pains me to see that we don’t get to play A&M UT anymore. It just sucks that the southwest conference had to die and we’re stuck from the outside looking in essentially just like the rest of big 12 watching rivalries die
Great video, you explained things very well and clearly did a lot of research. Rice's revenue was almost more than the other schools on this list put together. If you take out Tulane, Rice is outspent by the other schools by only 24 million.
There are a few schools other Non-Power 4 teams I would be interested in finding out about: Appalachian State, Liberty, Fresno State, UTSA, James Madison, and the military schools (Army, Navy, and Air Force). I'd also be curious to see what North Dakota State and South Dakota State's rankings would be, especially in comparison to some smaller Power 4 teams.
If you were interested in doing this conference by conference, seeing which school was the most valuable and least valuable would be fascinating. I realize that is a lot of work, and kind of misses the point of the video.
As a Memphis fan, it makes me sick to my stomach that UCF, Cincinnati, and SMU were all chosen over us.
As a USF fan, I agree. It does seem (after what the pac tried to do recently) that USF, Memphis, Tulane and UTSA may move as a package.
All four making the “joint statement” that we were committed to aac over pac-2, to me, read as: show us the right money and all four of us are yours to have
@ I agree. We do seem like a package deal which isn’t the worst case in the world.
@@kyleberryhill7627 it works best for everyone. We bring 4 big markets which is attractive to conferences. Memphis, USF and Tulane have all had some decent football success in recent memory (albeit that past couple years Usf struggled w Jeff Scott). All four have appropriate stadium venues for Power football. And Tulane and USF have been in power conferences before
My guess is the ACC but probably only after the big teams leave, which makes me wonder if it’s worth joining a non-power acc
Would you ever consider doing a video where you predict conference realignment up to a certain year, year by year, not for the purpose of it having any chance of it being anywhere near right but because it is always interesting looking at past predictions for the present that were way off, and you can’t have those kind of predictions without having had present predictions for the future at some point
The sad part is that football success is dependent on the realignment process itself.
I fully admit I’m biased as a Southern Miss fan, but we had a long run as a “giant killer” and some called us “Boise State before Boise State”. We had 17 consecutive winning seasons between 1995-2011.
Look at all those move ups…. How many of them were in conference with Southern Miss? Louisville, Cincinnati, TCU, Houston, SMU, UCF….. and on your potential list, Memphis, USF, Rice, Tulane, ECU….
We watched all those teams leave us behind because we are in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, and TV market was paramount in the realignments of the early 2000s.
Then, as recruits saw us “falling” in status, along with a disaster of a coaching hire in 2012, we fell off the map in football success. Now, in any argument of “what have you done for me lately?” we not only have a bad TV market, but also pretty mediocre football success.
Southern Miss will never have a chance at a Power 4 conference slot. I have to accept this, and just keep supporting my team as a G5 who might one day have a chance to play in the G5’s slot in the playoff.
Dont really get the "Boise State before Boise State" if your listing 1995-2011. Contrary to popular belief but Boise State's rise started well before 2006. Boise State joined FBS Division 1 in 1996. They have had a winning season every single year since 1997 and had their first 10 win season in 1999. They had 2 undefeated seasons prior to 2006 in 02 and 04, and in the 5 years prior to 2006 they went a combined 53-12.
Additionally, there really is no team as consistent in winning as Boise State. As crazy as their 28 consecutive winning season streak is, since 1946 Boise State has had a grand total of 4 losing seasons ever in 78 years (95% successful season record). Chris Petersen doesnt even rank in the top 3 coaches all time at BSU for winning percentage. In fact BSU's own consecutive winning season record is actually 37 years which spans their time from Division 3 to Division 2 to Division 1 AA and includes 4 national title teams in these divisions.
@@MattBuild4 we ended Bear Bryant’s home winning streak in 1980. We have been division 1-A/FBS since 1959, and were doing what you guys did to Oklahoma year in and year out…. Ole Miss and Mississippi State stopped playing us because we beat them so many times. Nothing against Boise State, but no one looked at you as “Giant Killers” until the Fiesta Bowl game.
@@myislander Ehh ok, I mean my intention is not to take anything away from Southern Miss, but Boise State beating P5 teams was never really about being "giant killers", the reason they scheduled P5 teams is because they realized that Division 1 FBS would constantly screw over undefeated teams and unlike every other division of college football had a garbage post season that wouldnt allow undefeated teams to make the post season. So they thought if they beat P5 teams they would get recognition to make titles...... but this hasnt really happened - did lead to some pretty astronomical lawsuits though, which imo directly led to the creation of the CFP..
@@MattBuild4 fair enough. I think we are both looking at the same issue from different perspectives.
In any fair system, both Boise State and Southern Miss would have the same opportunity to play for a championship as everyone else. Why should we have to be in a special conference just to get fair access to the championship?
I love dynasty mode in cf25 cause of the custom conferences. Making the Pac-12 a Conference again and putting Fresno State in the Big 12 is a blast. That would have been a dream come true if that happened. But it looks like we are stuck in the Mountain West making pennies. Anyway, great video.
Interested to know what Liberty would’ve scored here. Growing alumni base and lots of money (even if it’s not in the endowment). They’ve proven they can beat teams like VT, Arkansas, and Baylor already. Would be a good fit in the ACC with lots of rivalry game opportunities!
I imagine it’d be interesting. They have a decent endowment and large alumni base, but academics are below the bottom of the barrel and football success is all super recent. They also have the X-factor of being a pariah amongst a lot of schools.
I think the ACC would rather implode than take an ultra-religious school with bad academics. They’re like the Pac-12 in that regard
I don't think they would be good fit at they just dont have the academic .I'm a uva fan i asume you think us and va tech would be there rival i dought that.
@@TigerWave01 I’m assuming that academics matter less in the future - especially for a conference trying to survive after losing FSU/Clemson.
@@batraptor4 my thinking on rivals would be UVA and maybe Wake Forest. If the ACC expands it’s because they’ve lost teams - perhaps VT and UNC. The proximity factor would be a better fit than having UVA play Washington St.
@@adamjacquez9495 Maybe, but Liberty takes it to a whole other level of bad academics. Also, that X Factor will always be important because perception and, by extension, keeping potential viewers is very important. Besides, after that horrific Fiesta Bowl, I’m not sure any P4 conference views Liberty as a serious school in academics or athletics. If they were having more success in a better conference, then I think a more serious conversation could be had
I think a big issue for this is the use of endowment - I’m not fully well versed on the exact definitions but it’s not actually the entire pool of a school’s budget and it tends to be a significantly higher portion for all private universities, even ones that functionally have less resources than some big state schools that have lower listed endowments
Wonder if you could use this math for schools going FCS to FBS as well
Some FBS schools need to move down to FCS.
I am wondering if the P4 conferences will start shedding the bottom dwelling schools, as they contribute little to the conference other than taking money that the powerhouses could have.
Very interesting and intriguing video. Thank you for sharing your methodology and part of your algorithm. Keep up the great work.
Capacity of the football stadium- and the ability to fill it consistently- seems like it's one of the two most important factors. Either that, or it tends to map consistently to a couple of other factors that are equally important.
So keep an eye on who's making upgrades to their facilities, I guess. Getting yourself into the top 50 is not an absolute requirement but it sure does seem to help a lot.
I smiled a little bit when you mentioned Toledo and Buffalo. More importantly Buffalo. I participated in a Mock Draft with The Big Mountain Podcast where we chose schools to make up our own new conferences. I picked Buffalo as one of my conference's schools. I got bashed so much for that pick. When you watch this video and see how well Buffalo performs in ratings (albeit flawed?), it should make you think twice about my pick of Buffalo. It's not crazy to think down the road Buffalo could be a "sleeping giant" kind of college football market.
Realignment has ruined college football
It's changed it in a big time way but they've tried thru so many numbskull ideas & policies to kill NCAA Football but cannot. It's THE Greatest Game on Earth (& I'm a fan of all the European/South American soccer leagues and their wondrous pageantry,but NCAA Football is THE s**t) & will forever be.
It's different and it will take time to get used to that but it will survive & thrive.
#YouCannotKillNCAAFootball
#ItsAlwaysFootballSeasonInHeaven
🐕🏈
lol which time? The sport is constantly changing you’re just getting old and get upset at change
I think we need to include Basketball in the methodology because of how much more money they bring in just in recent years.
~01:20 WVU didn't make the original P5 cut, so it was also elevated.
Bring back the Big 8, SWC, and 20 independent teams.
Love you’re content especially the niche of college football history keep up the good work
Temple got snubbed IMO, almost a billion-dollar endowment, 4th best media market in the country, and a comparably large alumni base. It's a shame the AD has made poor coaching hires since Matt Rhule left, because if Temple was able to maintain even a fraction of Rhule's success (i.e. making bowl games every year or two), they would definitely be in the discussion for a P4 move.
Under the model in the video, Temple has a score of 192.7
Awesome video. More numbers and more teams please! Analyze all current P4 teams (conference by conference) to see who would get left out if their conference imploded. Potentially very interesting videos stemming from this equation 🤔
This video is a data scientists worst nightmare but I love the effort and transparency
The one thing I have to say about conference realignment is…well, nothing about conference realignment makes sense. Except it’s all about money. $$$.💰💵💴 And even then, it STILL doesn’t make sense. I don’t have any complaints about Lukas’s methodology for this video. I’m just happy to be a fan of Lukas, and that I love his videos. 👍👍
would love for this to become a series examining other G5 schools! I am fascinated what the scores would be for Air Force, Liberty, James Madison, App State, Fresno State, & UTSA. I would love if u could potentially do FCS schools as I am fascinated what the other Ivy League schools scores would be with how insane Harvard & Yale scores were.
Hello randomnerd2332, I did the math for all the other G5 teams following Dalukes's methodology in like a separate spreadsheet and put it in a different comment you can find if you like scroll far enough. Here's the scores for all the G5 schools you were interested in.
Air Force: 76.08
App State: 101
Fresno State: 113.2
JMU: 26.9
Liberty: 100.5
UTSA: 72.77
You should post a video of how these scores compare to current P4 Team scores. I'm curious to see how all of them fair.
Only question is will it be 6 20-team or 5 24-team super conferences.
UH's endowment is a little over 1 billion and is getting an additional 1.3 billion from the state because of a recent prop that was passed last year. Just thought I'd throw that out there.
Great video, love a little green wave love!
That background music either needs to be turned way the hell down or switched to something less shrill. Preferably both as it’s so bad that you can hardly be heard and are just drowned out. Distracting af.
I disagree
Why no app state or ccu?
Conferences want to add teams they can beat. App State is no joke.
Honestly, academics
The methodology isn't too bad, but I decided to crunch the numbers on the Akron Zips since they're not exactly the cream of the crop even in the MAC. They'd get a score of 83.44 which isn't promotion-level but better than a few options while in the realm of Boise and Ozzu. I think this largely comes down to having a pretty respectable endowment and being in the same market as Cleveland to end up 19th in that category. But at the same time, they've appeared in 2 bowl games (with 1 win) since 2010 and managed a negative score in academics. All this to say, if Akron can get its academics and football program turned around for an extended time, look out for them to quietly enter the conversation as a Power conference candidate.
What you (we) need is a couple of TV execs who actually have their fingers on the "eyeballs" data. It comes down to that, right? How many "eyeballs" a school can garner, and not just in boom times but in down times too.
I always loved moving Buffalo to the ACC or American/Big East in my NCAA dynasties, interesting to see they're actually a pretty good candidate in the real world!
Big Ten would actually make more sense geographically for UB but in the ACC at least they'd be more competitive lol
@@s98247Buffalo…? They could never handle a P4 conference!
Great video!
Also, I agree with your analysis - especially on USF and Tulane.
Both of those should be in the ACC (instead of SMU).
I think the endowments are certainly one way of analyzing the relative alumni support, but the athletic budget may be more important to conference realignment.
I liked it better when conferences was based on geographical rivalries. It also helped to have two-tier conferences... Big Ten - MAC, PAC - Mt West, SEC - Sun Belt, ACC (Big East) - C-USA.
The new alignments make absolutely ZERO sense, but having every major university in California scrambling to join a conference outside of California is totally expected in context of Newsom.
Memphis should be at the top of the list. Recent success at football and basketball, and centrally located to join any conference. Tulane has been good on the football field lately, is a good academic school and is also centrally located. UTSA is in a good sized city (San Antonio) and has had recent success at football. San Diego State hasn't been as competitive, but has a nice new stadium and a good TV market. UNLV brings the Las Vegas excitement to any league that wants them.
After that group, Boise State and Fresno State traditionally field competitive football teams but don't bring much else to the table. Air Force has been good at football lately and is good academically. USF is in a big market on the East Coast but hasn't done much on the field recently.
I used to live in San Diego and can tell you that no one in the metro area gives a crap about SDSU sports. Just because it’s a big city with potential viewers, doesn’t mean anyone will watch.
I think the pure mathematics is what is making it flawed. Instead of every rank being a pure number - instead if you had each factor say on a scale of 1 - 10 (whole numbers only) then for instance the endowment for Harvard, Yale, Rice, TCU, SMU, BYU would all be capped at a 10 while Rutgers would get a 9. Once an endowment is "big enough" - anything beyond that is pretty irrelevant.
If somebody hasn’t already suggested it, I would try making a general linear model with the data from the “new” P4 schools and then applying that formula to the potential P4 schools
Tulane has a chance to get back up to big time status. New Orleans market, great academics, great mascot 😁 - lot to like about the Green Wave!
On what planet is UTEP considered a possible power 4 team and not UTSA. It’s has a huge market, recent football success with more certain to come in the future and probably a fast growing alumni base. I seriously would put them in a PAC-12 2.0 or some kind of “Misfit Toys” conference if somehow the current conference system collapses under its own weight.
In one where I did more NCAA14 dynasties with UTEP than UTSA
utep is a mistake of a school and so is new mexico state
@@lukeontheplains That’s like your opinion. Personally UTSA is a much more interesting program.
The entire video is my opinion lol
Hey Dalukes, could you possibly use this formula with current power 4 teams Think it would be a fun comparison and we could be maybe see team who might get left out if super conference get bigger.
What about tv time slots availability? That should help western teams... I'm not sure but I think the majority of espn's 10 pm eastern games are now only Big 12 Mountain time teams(5) or Stanford and Cal.
One thing that is weirdly important that wasn’t in the formula is location. As we see with the current realignment location didn’t seem to matter much. But for some reason location mattered much more than expected st least maybe only for the pac 12. I guess there weren’t many other options but some of the new additions got in bc of where they’re located
I’d like to see your numbers applied to like the sec or current power conference members
An interesting comparative would be to run this formula against the top 25 P4 schools as a baseline to see how valuable they are in the to know what these theoretical expansion teams are up against upon entry
OU did not go to the SEC to be a middle of the pack team, they went because they wanted to compete for better players and more money equals better facilities, equipment, and NIL deals
I would think football viewership is an important factor. Though it certainly can't be the only one or North Carolina (11th in football viewership in the ACC) wouldn't be as highly sought after. The top four schools in the ACC in this category are Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Louisville.
The only way to make your formula better would be to calculate scores for the P5 and see what makes them better. Or what could be added to the formula.
Definitely Oregon State and Wazzu. The Oregonian mentioned that both schools said they are currently in talks with multiple conferences, some of those being Power 4 conferences
Y'all keep sleeping on the MAC, leave us and the Sun Belt alone. We believe in Regionality!
Yes please. As the years go by, and the conference realignment crap gets worse, the more I start to love the MAC and Sun Belt and their desire for regionality.
you should do a history on the SoCon going from the original SEC basically to an FCS conference with occasional runs in the basketball tournament
7:22 TCU’s alumni count seemed so low to me. I had no idea TCU was as small as it is from an attendance perspective. I was thinking it was a 30k student kinda school not a 10k student kinda school
I think a factor here you're not looking at ( and this strengthens buffalo and SDSU even more and UTEP)is that both tv markets are much bigger when you consider both are super close to the borders and they do air in Canada for buffalo and a parts of Mexico for utep and sdsu. I live on the Canadian side of Niagara falls and have gotten local news from Buffalo tv stations since i was born
UAB UNT FAU and UTSA would be interesting on this list
I think a metric that could be useful would be geographic proximity to a major media market, top 25 let’s say. As a JMU alum we are 2-3 hours away from the DC market. This enabled ~70% of the student population being apart of that market, so when they graduate there is a built in tv viewership in the #5 media market. Also, look at the last five to ten years in average application and admittance rate. Case in point with JMU my class, 2021, had about 3-5k and 15k applied. The school recently had over 30k apply after we got to the Sunbelt and our Football and Basketball success. So an additional metric measuring Basketball success would be effect for schools with continual success in the tournaments and weed out the “once in a lifetime” moments.
Media markets don’t mean anything if the team isn’t competitive, and causing people to want to watch.
Would be interested in Temple as they’re the Philly school market. Delaware was brought up to FBS because they’re in the Philly market along with football success
I ran the numbers and Temple scores a 192.7
I'm gonna calculate the scores for every G5 team brb
EDIT: Here is every other G5 Team not featured in the video, use this information for your own purposes since this is a flawed system
Air Force: 76.08
Akron: 52.09
App State: 101
Arkansas State: 47.83
Army: 68.22
Ball State: 63.55
Bowling Green: 66.55
Central Michigan: 64.66
Charlotte: 61.34
Costal Carolina: 37.77
Delaware: 57.7 (Yes, I know they aren't in the FBS right now, but they will be and they score above a 50 with their Football Prestige value set at 0)
Eastern Michigan: 69.84
FIU: 74.22
Fresno State: 113.2
Georgia Southern: 74.22
Georgia State: 94.3 (Atlanta carrying here)
Hawaii: 87.4
Jacksonville State: 26.54
James Madison: 26.9
Kennesaw State: 30.7 (Atlanta carrying here as well)
Kent State: 74.61
Liberty: 100.5 (They have a 2 BILLION Dollar endowment which coupled with their large "alumni" size and decent Football performance, puts them at 100 despite having a negative academic score)
UL Lafayette: 65.42
UL Monroe: 17.13
UMass: 34.47
Marshall: 107.61 (They win all the Bowl Games they get from their middling seasons which ballooned their Football Prestige to 80)
Miami Ohio: 97.86
MTSU: 75.48
Missouri State: 9.23 (Yes, not in the FBS yet, but they score worse than every other G5 team)
Navy: 64.35
Nevada: 83.98
New Mexico State: 60.43
Northern Illinois: 80.8
North Texas: 110.1
Ohio: 131.04 (The Bobcats score incredibly well with a combo of good endowment, the Columbus Market, winning Bowl Games, having surprisingly good academic rankings and a sizeable alumni base)
Old Dominion: 32.85
Sam Houston: 43.02
San Jose State: 74.6
South Alabama: 53.47
Southern Miss: 59.03
Temple: 120.48 (The school that got kicked out of the Big East for being terrible scored incredibly well despite their Football Prestige score only being 30)
Texas State: 61.09
Troy: 75.12
Tulsa: 93.7 (I could not find their total Alumni numbers so I had to guess. If they had better Football they'd likely score in the 100s)
UAB: 102.2
Utah State: 90.49 (They score 90 with a Market Score of ZERO)
UTSA: 72.77
Western Kentucky: 107.19 (Similar case to Marshall, they get buoyed by Dalukes heavily weighting Bowl Game wins)
Western Michigan: 82.8
Wyoming: 88.56
Overall some interesting if not flawed and somewhat performative results.
I FORGOT WYOMING
@@lukeontheplains you did :(
Don't worry I did the math and Wyo got an 85, not bad all things considered.
That being said my main gripe with this video (everyone does it so its nothing personal) is that CSU was given the denver tv market. I get that neilsen groups them together, but god damn you would have a hard time finding CSU anything in the north metro area, much less the further south you go. Fort Collins isn't considered part of the denver metro like boulder is, and Denver is most definitely CU territory. I know that you can't seperate them but that's what is carrying CSU in this expirement.
Western Kentucky would be great for basketball
@@lukeontheplains How do you feel about Ohio University technically being the 4th/5th best G5 Team for Power Conference addition based on your methodology, any thoughts on this development?
@@jupitervideos7702 maybe there needs to be a seperate scoring system that factors in Basketball Excellence. Regardless I'm mot someone who would have expected WKU to be in the 100s but they win enough Bowl Games to do so
Cincinnati and Toledo are not comparable. Cincinnati has two basketball championships, Oscar Robertson, another final four appearance, a recent CFP appearance, multiple NY6 bowl appearances, membership in the big east, historic rivalries with Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, Xavier, etc. UC’s endowment is 3-4x Toledo, same with the number of students. UC didn’t just luck their way into the Big 12, they were a founding member of C-USA which was a very strong conference at the time and competitive in the big east.
Ohio cities go brrrrr
Memphis, Rice and USF make the most sense to me, maybe gonzaga as an affiliate
Tulane too^ and obv pretty much all the MWC teams considering the PAC-12 situation
Memphis USF Tulane will all be joining the power 4 soon
The MAC that you need to run this on is Miami OH. Strong academics, Cincinnati market, on and off football success. Ohio is decent too
You should do this for potential additions to the P2 👍
I saw an interesting idea the other day, and as a fellow Big 12 guy (Go Cyclones), I'd like to hear some input. You brought up in this video that SMU more or less bought their ticket into the P4. My question is "Could Wazzu and Ozzu do the same?" They settled for a ton of money from the PAC Exodus, so could they use that money to entice say the Big 12? Could the Big 12 even benefit from that money? And if so, would that money be used to lure teams from the ACC away and out of their nightmare of a GOR?
Go clones 🌪️
smu bought their way because they have "fuck you" money, which wazzu and osu do not. SMU isn't getting any money from the ACC.
No they can't, because the ~$250 million they got isn't lump sum, its broken up over the next few years. On top of that, the leadership of both schools have pretty much already stated that most of that money has been designated for mainting operating costs, so they can't really use any of it as "fuck you" money.
SMU's money doesn't necessarily come from the school itself or the fans, it comes from a fuckload of rich alumni who have been giving that school insane amounts of money for decades.
Maybe the ACC added SMU as a DFW layover destination between California and the Eastern time zone.
@@jonm4501 yeah and that’s fucking stupid
Surprised not to see Liberty on here. Massive endowment and pretty successful football program for years. Bad academics but still an undeniable rising star.
their political background makes them a tough add for a lot of power conferences
@@lukeontheplains you could say the same about byu but I understand your point.
The fact that San Diego State, Boise State, and Fresno State are sitting in a larger PAC 12 just makes me scratch my head still. TV companies ruining those types of hopes.
Bring in a bunch of G5 teams and labeling them as the new PAC? does not make them a competitive or viable conference. It just makes them the MW with a new name.
I can see USF getting out of the G5 which, while I hate them as a school, I would to have our rivalry with them again
Exactly. Having such a great and natural rivalry in the heart of the Florida market is a huge draw
The War on I-4 was great and could be great again. Hey UCF, get us in the Big12.
USF has to become a good team again for that to happen.
@@theusfwizard1739I live in Florida, and it’s owned by the Gators and Seminoles.
@@jonm4501 I wish we could but not sure how much say we have lol, just keep winning
I don't think South Carolina's downfall was from adding two conference teams. We had one of the greatest college football coaches retire after spending more time developing the existing roster than recruiting new talent for his last 2-3 years, then his replacement drove the program further into the ground. Also at the same time, UGA and Clemson, our two biggest rivals, became elite programs and were far more desirable to local recruits.
As a B12 fan, that recently added west schools, I think it would be important for the B12 to add schools in important markets that being FB and or BB to the conference. SDSU and get into CA. Plus I would add UConn to add NYC and NE area. Having lived in Houston, Rice is a great university but it’s too small to be a P4 candidate.
At this point, I am completely done with conference realignment. This is honestly getting to a point where I just recommend watching FCS or any of the lower level divisions because they actually know how to make an organized playoff.
Rutgers and Louisville shouldn't be included. The Big East/American was a power conference up until 2014. It only dropped once those 2 left.
I agree. Primary reason for including them though was to provide a larger sample size from which to play around with the numbers
@@lukeontheplains I like it. And honestly, they probably do fit. Rutgers has a G5 level football program that weighs them down. Louisville lacks in both market and academics. So they were interesting adds.
I've always said for a long time, maybe being biased living in NW Ohio and being a Toledo fan, that Toledo is being MASSIVELY overlooked. I've never considered them for P4 conferences, but when the AAC was expanding and especially when they lost Cincinnati and people would bring up NIU, Ohio, Buffalo, etc. as longshot candidates, I never understand why Toledo didn't more looks. Toledo itself is a fairly small market, but only being an hour from Detroit, 2 or so from Cleveland, being in a talent rich recruiting state, having the best all around football program in the MAC, and playing some good basketball too, I always wondered why they didn't at least get mentioned. In the end I think the MAC is happy being what they are considering they're all similar schools with small budgets and close travel, but I do think if they day comes that there's a massive split and the lower end of the FBS gets left behind....Toledo is one of the MAC schools that likely tries to stay FBS.
That also makes me realize one more thing that could maybe be considered here, but might not matter or be too had to add.....athletic budget. I'd imagine that's where the schools like Toledo, Buffalo, maybe even Rice that scored well end up losing out, but then again maybe it doesn't matter because if they got a call up they'd probably spend way more to try to keep up too. I don't know. Definitely an interesting video and I like your work. Even if I don't always agree, it makes me think and I've even learned some things watching your videos.
The realignment was mostly about being able to compete more than money. Oklahoma and Texas didn't want to have their key games at noon. They wanted primetime. Recruiting is the biggest key to realignment.
I’d have added athletic/football budget as a field as well. Buffalo (Football and Basketball) feels like a school that should be too big for the MAC, but also content where it is
USF is an obvious add. SDSU is as well. Tulane could be the 3rd add after that I think
Law in your methodology if you leave out natural arrivals, I understand SMU doesn’t have one in the ACC, but that’s where the pocketbook comes in to play
SDSU alum here I really don't think we'll ever get into a Power 4 conference. There was a vote on the table to let us into the Pac-12 after Colorado left.
Oregon State and Washington State will rebuild the Pac, and rank somewhere between the P4 and the G5. San Diego State will be at the top of the list.
I really like what you did making this formula. I think the only "flaw" was not factoring in regular season wins in some manner if I understood your explanation right. Since it only takes six wins to make a bowl (Minnesota made a bowl with 5 wins) teams that make a bowl with nine or ten wins are punished in comparison to the teams that made a bowl with six. Regular season wins should definitely be added somehow and maybe give more weight to the postseason. Maybe give them 1 point as you did with bowl wins. And give more weight to the level of bowl the teams play in like how you gave more weight to BCS/CFP. So based on your formula it would look like this, and I'm sure you could come up with something better than what I'm coming up with off the top of my head:
Bowl Appearance: 0.5
Bowl Appearance vs P5 : 1 (would not get the 0.5 credit on top of this, but that would be up to you)
Bowl Win: 1
Bowl win vs P5: 1.5
BCS/NY6 Appearance: 2
CFP Appearance: 4 (probably less going forward due to CFP expansion)
Again that's just me brainstorming because I like these kinds of ideas. Thanks for the video.
Georgia State! Very underrated
Why did you exclude Fresno State? They are more qualified than most of these schools, especially in terms of football success.
I originally had them in there, but their market share as California's 6th or 7th most prominent team and a couple of other factors had them as a less worthy candidate than ECU, so I decided to cut them based on that. Again, the methodology is flawed, but they didn't seem like that good of an addition based on the numbers
I've always hated the "power 5/group of 5" split. why even have 10 conferences if only 5 matter
Exactly. With the expanded playoffs, they had the perfect opportunity to make all the FBS (Div 1A) teams compete on a level playing field. Go to 16 teams, take all 9 conference champs, and 7 at-large teams. Assuming the bottom 4 G5 champs don't make the field of 12, you would still end up with the same top 11 teams as the 12-team playoff (four P4 champs and 7 at-large teams), but every team would have a chance to play their way in, committee or no committee.
All fbs teams need to be in the same conferences with power 4 just do divisions like NFL
@@s98247 would hate that. we don't need a 2nd NFL