...99.8% Winrate?
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
- In this video, Colin examines a trending video “How to Win at Blackjack with 99.8% Win Rate,” which has over 200k views. Is this truly the "ULTIMATE STRATEGY" to beat blackjack, or just a sneaky ploy to lure players into a trap? Colin provides a detailed breakdown to reveal the truth.
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I've lost ~18 hands in a row, and won maybe 10 hands in a row. In the short term anything can and will happen, and with sampling bias you could just about prove anything. You will lose on a 20. You will win on a 12. What matters is the long term and math proves that the only winning "strategy" is card counting. Thanks Colin for this excellent video!
Agreed. RC4 is the best card counting system for fast gains in any blackjack game.
This video is SO well done! Great work guys!
Thanks Mr Bridges! Much love from across the pond.
Agreed! It's crazy how people will lie to make a buck.
please post more steven
steven whens your next video
@@Blackjackapprenticeship can you please do a video on double deck virtual blackjack? There is one on draft kings that has an advertised house edge of only 0.21%. The minimum bet is $100 and of course shuffled after each hand. I think I already know what you’ll say but I want to hear it from you anyways lol
I've watched so many Blackjack channels. This is the only one I've seen that doesn't feed bs to its viewers. Appreciate the hell out of that.
that's because he's not a gambler. he's a mathematician
Martingale, lol.....As soon as you hear that you know it's silliness......
This!
You're editing and storytelling on these recent videos has become far superior! Congrats and keep the math coming
The best part is the long-haul math callouts. anyone claiming to offer that high of a win rate is an automatic charlatan. The fact that he's suggesting Martigale betting is the icing. It's such a horrendous betting strategy that it doesn't even warrant you mentioning it because it's so bad it may soil even YOUR reputation! lol. Thanks for the video!
I just went to that scam RUclips page, and in the comments hit them with both barrels about it being a scam, and posted a link to the video here by Colin.
I wonder how long before my comments are removed!
He isn't wrong. You can structure a martingale with a 99.999% win rate. The problem is you'll eventually lose and when you do it will bankrupt you
Colin...the look on your face right after you put the mask on to "run across the road" is hilarious!!...I couldn't stop laughing....Maybe a career in acting is in your future ;). This is by far the best video you've produced to date! Keep 'em coming.
Thankyou for shining a light on these bums. I was silly enough to follow their "99.8%" strategy and ended up losing my entire deposit. Luckily I cashed some out before it happened because I felt like it was too good to be true. But I feel cheated. I will stay away from them moving forward. You got my sub.
Is there anything I can do since they basically lied?
Realize you're not that smart if you thought there was a 99.8% winning strategy in blackjack in the first place. You aren't smart. Realizing that would be the best thing you can do for yourself.
I’m not sure if anything is able to be done about what already happened, however try to be more careful online in the future. Fact check things, and make sure there’s not a scam behind whatever you’re reading; nowadays there’s a lot of fake information out there.
No. You learned an expensive but hopefully valuable lesson. I will also say, if you’re punting your full roll on a 98.8% edge promise then you probably shouldn’t be gambling.
It's always good to try something even if it's fake so you can add that to your memory... Download a offline blackjack game and apply them there and see then go to the casino when the minimum lose 100$ then go home and learn again
@@generalwasteman I should have said my entire deposit, not bankroll. Deposited a couple hundred to try it out and it didn’t go as planned. But I agree, lesson learned
The editing has REALLY improved. Well done BJA gang
Congrats for making 7/8 beyond the arc with unlimited tries
As always, it's a great video on exposing the lies of systems that do not work! Thanks BJA .
Russian roulette and running across the street are great metaphors. There's another metaphor that I learned, called picking up pennies on the train track. You will win and gain a little most of the time, but it just takes that one time for the train to hit for you to lose all your winnings and then some.
Well, the Martingale obviously never works. You're expected to bust once very 7 hours with some certain table limits (source: another BJA video). They obviously never mention this.
Overall this video is just awesome. This is the first time I saw some fun real-life examples out of your videos. Great work Colin!
Im starting practicing basic strategy ..then i will try my best at counting+true count and finally the deviations..its not going to be a walk in the park since i got ADHD...but i will try
Colin is also a hooper?? Love to see it!
Haha. I wouldn't call myself a hooper. It's just the illustration that came to mind. And my editor asked me to film b-roll of me shooting hoops.
@@Blackjackapprenticeship had me fooled! Great illustration.
"Hey bro I have a new system, it's foolproof"
Me: "Is it the martingale?"
"Nah Bro Check this out"
..... it's the Martingale
The production has gone up so much in this video. I love this. No one understands the basic fundamentals of statistics. Keep it up Colin!
Thanks, we had a lot of fun making this one!
I think it's funny you just now got around to that guy's channel, he is a good Blackjack player, he does it for a career but mostly just RUclips now for the $ like the rest of us who were the best at the casino games we chose as youngsters to make our fame and back then Martingale was and sort of STILL IS the only betting system that you need to win just once to get all your money back + profit.
Love the cut aways, they make your explanations very engaging and fun!
Colin, this is your BEST video ever! I laughed so hard with the “crossing the road” segment.
This video is awesome, every new video there is improvement of the quality. Thanks Collin and team. Saludos desde Costa Rica!
Colin,
So glad you mentioned "sampling bias". It's an easy way to fool people who aren't thinking. I've been guilty of it several times in the past.
Recently, I came across a plethora of videos of quasi-celebrities playing blackjack at high limit tables and winning (most of the time). And as far as I know, they're not counting. But viewers are eating up their content. Is there an off-camera deal between the streamer and the casino to play a fake game with big money? To me it would make sense as it would give the steamer more views, and the casino free advertising and the idea that they have a the best blackjack tables in town, drawing more people to their games.
Have you commented on RUclips and Twitch streamers blackjack videos before? Maybe on another video or a podcast?
We're just focused on doing our thing and bringing some education to anyone who wants to hang out and listen. We don't spend much time on other people's content unless its brought to our attention. For people are are gambling all the time, even the worst will havre winning sessions they can share and pretend those are the norm.
That's probably the most I've laughed watching one your videos. That's was nicely broken down.
Glad you liked it, we had a lot of fun with this one
Love all your videos. This is really well produced.
Martingale works. Can’t stay too long as you will hit a bad streak. It seems every time I first get to a table .. I win some hands.
I'm enjoying your videos, confirms all of the things I picked up from independent studying, old school casino veritas software simulations, and of course from anecdotal experiences. Perhaps I missed it but I'm not seeing a video where you go into detail about your counting strategy. I tried several but landed on hi opt II with an ASC against 3s and 6s. I used to side count 7s as well but found the scenarios in high counts vs dealer big cards and my 12-14 don't come up nearly enough to make it worthwhile, can still somewhat mentally assess those situations without doing a formal side count. I leverage about 20-30 indices, namely the illustrious 18. I use a 1 to 8 spread and I basically play anywhere except near the black jack hall of fame or MGM properties because the security is too good. Double deck min bet $25 or $50 with 2 hands at any given moment. I have done this for about 10 years and probably only lose 1 in 4 or 5 sessions. At one point I thought I could do this full time but then started getting backed off/flat betted/frequent shoe drops/etc. I guess working as a software engineer is more stable anyway lol
LOL I liked how you took a deep breath before putting on the blindfold 😂
Reset part 😅 next level sarcasm 😂 this is eye opening video. Thank you brother ❤️
Anyone who believes that 99.8% bum is either desperate or a fool. There’s a reason casinos exist and part of that is the bullshit this guy spreads. Any bloke who wants a crack at winning, you either need a decent betting strategy or commit the time to learn what this guy is gifting you.
Personally, I count cards until I drink enough that I can’t maintain accuracy and then I go to a d’Alambert system. Being blackjack is an infrequent pastime that I’d rather profit from but don’t depend on, this works for me.
Love your stuff, brother, and I respect you and your team’s talent! Keep up the good content!
Awww but I was so excited to risk $640 to try to win $5.
😂😂😂
Martingales not the best idea but does work with bankroll management and a achievable goal. Learning to accept the lost and walk away to play another day. No one can win every time they walk in but if you limit yourself and lose 5 out of 30 days isnt bad.
It does not work, unless you have an imaginary infinite bankroll, and we explain it here: ruclips.net/video/shD7Smejn1c/видео.html
Off topic: I'm curious if you have seen the online videos from Mikki Mase you and what you think of the claims he has made concerning money he's won at BlackJack, casinos cheating at BlackJack and his claims to being banned by casinos.
I love how every Martingale promoter acts like they’re the first one to discover the scroll of truth.
Amazing vid. There should be a compilation of the drivers in their car when they saw you put the blindfold on about to walk across 🤣🤣🤣🤣
The reason martingale is so popular is you win more often than you lose. The problem is you win very small amounts and when you eventually lose you get wiped out.
Nope try again Mike
@@gochillessmith4137 That's exactly correct. Your in frequency is higher with martingale, but the times that you lose more than wipe out the gains. I don't need to try again. It's literally math. Maybe you should revisit.
@@rhpmikeyep a martingale comes down to how long you can play and who has the bigger bankroll, and unless you're elon musk you dont have the bigger bankroll than MGM
@@rhpmikethis is related to an interesting paradox... in the paradox it makes it seem like the one play is optimal and not only is the median player a winner, like the 95th percentile player is a winner; and even if you play a lot of simulations you might win. But you're EV is a loss, and the losses are huge, sometimes billions or trillions of dollars even with a reasonable like thousands of simulations
To illustrate how bankroll matters take the paradox flip a coin, win you triple up tails you lose everything. Its optimal to play infinitely and the EV is infinity but probability of losing everything approaches 0
Very informative video. Love it!
I don't trust his channel, i saw a strategy of baccarat 99% winning and from 100$ to +1000$, i went to try the strategy in the same slot and doing the same thing, i won a couple hands until i lost all my bankroll. As u said he gets paid when people lose.
Is it worth it to count 6 decks when they burn 6 cards? Also no you can't see the cards. Or am I better off playing 2 decks with 2 burns. Yes I know deck pen is most important. Thoughts guys?
It looks like the comments on that video were paid for as well.
lol
I would love to see Colin grow a mustache
That video has 250k views. What type of awful human being would make a video like that?
I feel fortunate that I have a basic understanding of mathematics, and that I found this channel before I did that one! Colin, you are a legend sir
Wait what! You make 7/8 3 pointers? Awesome 👍👍😎😎😎
Good to see someone giving the facts about these gambling systems. But surely $200 in ten mins is $1200an hour.
They were playing in euros and we were quoting in $$$ which made it confusing.
How long is long run? 1 year 5 hours a day is considered long run already?
Is it a good idea to play two spots at the table? I see it all the time. It seems kind of rude at a full table, and I don’t think one could win more money that way
I’ve lost 20 blackjack hands in a row twice. One time included 2 blackjack blackjack ties. I started one session with 14 consecutive losses. Oddly enough, that ended up being a winning session.
Colin and team, you guys are the best! Thanks!
I don't understand.. you say cards don't have memory, yet cars do? Surely everytime j run across the road it's still a 2.8% chance of being hit?
Step 1 - Be a Nepo Baby
Step 2 - Be a Nepo Baby
I appreciate your videos man and everything I’ve learned from them
Good to see you active on You Tube Colin
Online Dealer here. I had someone get fully restricted after getting so pissed that their 98% win rate strat won them 0 games in 10 rounds. They were basically snapping at anyone and everyone in player chat that said that doesn't exist otherwise casinos wouldn't run standard blackjack. (table rules were hit s17, 3:2 bj, on spilt on initial 2 cards for anyone curious)
edit: I'm an idiot, Colin is right. He used 2.8% chance not 3%. I was confused and wrong.
I don't know if I can trust your apprenticeship when the odds at 5:30 are all wrong.
With a 3% chance of getting struck the odds of getting struck doing it twice is 1-(97^2/100^2)= .0591 or 5.91%. The odds of getting struck if you did it ten times is 1-(97^10/100^10)= .2625 or 26.25%. I can't even begin to understand how you arrived at your numbers.
To determine the odds of dying when running across the road twice, given that the probability of dying each time is 3% (or 0.03), we need to consider the probability of surviving both attempts and then use that to find the probability of dying at least once.
1. **Probability of Surviving Once**:
The probability of not dying (surviving) each time is \(1 - 0.03 = 0.97\).
2. **Probability of Surviving Twice**:
Assuming the events are independent, the probability of surviving both attempts is:
\[
0.97 \times 0.97 = 0.9409
\]
3. **Probability of Dying at Least Once**:
The probability of dying at least once is the complement of surviving both times:
\[
1 - 0.9409 = 0.0591
\]
So, the probability of dying when you run across the road twice, given a 3% chance each time, is 0.0591, or 5.91%
The $200 in ten mins into $1400 per hour got me 😂
@@DynamicGracer Yes but how did Colin arrive at his incorrect numbers? I can't even fathom how to get to his numbers...
@@generalwastemani think you mean euros
well considering it was being calculated for 2.8%, not 3%, I dont know how much i trust your opinion ;)
Thanks, Colin. I appreciate you calling out the bs.
All good and everything. But what is the point of counting cards if all casino's are using automatic shufflers. In my little country the few casino's we have use them. So there goes my goal/ dream to be an AP. Correct me if I'm wrong... ( and I do hope so very much)
On the other hand I saw the series of Steven Bridges going to the States to counting cards. So there must be some land based casino's with enough deck penatration. Right?
Most casinos in the US don't use CSMs and are beatable. Some games in touristy areas have worse rules (like 6:5) or use CSMs for lower limit tables that make them a waste of time, but there is a lot of opportunity to play the States with good beatable games. The rest of the world can be very hit or miss with decent games.
@@Blackjackapprenticeship yes!
There is hope.
thank you so much for your reply!
So , in order for this technique to work, shall i wait till the summary is positive, or shall i play low till the numbers go positive and then multiply my bet?
a chart and martingale and they make money?....ok 29.99 I'll sell you a chart and Fibonacci.....also you just have to find 1 min, 10 million max table...you cant lose 22 times in a row...lol
Nobody can do what i did online for real money one time. I turned 250 into 8k in a week through pure grit and determination. Started with 1 dollar bets. 3 handed. Surrendered 15s and 16s. Never doubled 9s. Never doubled 10 against 10. Never hit 12 vs a dealer 2. I grinded that stratedgy for a week slowly increasing my bets as the bankroll got bigger. Thousands of hands. Was averaging 100 an hour return. I put in the hours. It was real work. I got greedy. Lost it all.
My question then is, if you aren't card counting, how do you vary your bet sizes at the table if only playing basic strategy...just randomly or keep bets the same
You cannot correctly vary your bets without counting.
Martingale always be like "Just risk $5000 to win $2, bro, c'mon!"
I really appreciate this vide and your research your a legend for this ❤️👊🏻 thank you for potentially saving lots of people potentially life changing losses ❤️ absolute legends
2:28...that sounds like just gambling addiction
Brilliant video!!!
I have 10+ loss in a row sequences what feels like several times a session and certainly at least once a session. Martingale definitely does NOT work.
Requesting a button add to the BJA pro app. Please consider adding dealer push on 22 to simulate free bet shenanigans.
Years ago, my ex was playing the Martingale method, while I played basic strategy. It went as well as y'all would expect, she lost her buy in, and I eked out a small profit. The table stakes were $5-500, it seems to me.
Yeah the only way Martingale works is with an infinite bankroll and no table limit
I don’t play martingale. I do have a somewhat unique style of playing. Knock on wood, don’t care if you don’t believe me, I haven’t lost in a session since 2016. I play about 5x per year
How’s the strategy work
Colin, do auto shufflers affect the EV for a casual player?
That's a great question. I reckon yes.
It will just lead to more rounds per hour. So if you're playing a negative expectation game, you'll lose a little faster.
I wish you uploaded this a week ago, take this as a testimony i watched that video and lost my entire deposit, that 2.8% caught up to me fast
Guys question because you are the best in BJ.
If you are playing by a casino and they offer you cash out option. I have 16 vs 10 dealer.
Best way is to cash out on long term or hit?
Stand is no option in my opinion.
Also their is a variant where where all the dubbles and splits are free but 22 bank is a push!
I know you don't like variants but is this a bad deal?
So 9 10 11 are free Dubble and all pairs split are free also. Only card is 2 problem when they get 10 and 10 for 22 it's a push.
I wonder your opinion in this matter thanks already. 😊
Has anyone else noticed more 21 combinations lately??
Seems like I have been seeing more lately? Maybe its the shufflers working overtime?
The shufflers know when they are missing a card so is it possible that the shuffler stages the card sequence?
Martingale doesn’t work, trying to make 100 per day and quitting ahead doesn’t work either. On the 7th day what do you do if you are in a hole from the start? Those two systems I tried destroyed my bank roll
Another Martingale death trap. Thanks for the video Frogger Jones.
I'm gonna go outside and play some running across the street.
Lol. That's even less recommended than Martingale betting.
Lmao if you were to be paid out 1 M dollars for surviving that just once, are you in?😅
Pretty cool bro. Thx 4 all the good info.
Can the martingale system work in a very small deck game, like 1 deck? The rationale being that due to the finite set of cards, the odds of losing every hand in a single deck is low. E.g., if you lose on the first 3/4 of the deck chance are the count is really high on the last segment of the deck.
It never works long run, we discuss it more here: ruclips.net/video/shD7Smejn1c/видео.html
@@Blackjackapprenticeship I love how one of your friends got nicknamed Loud & Often! What is the story behind it? Did he become so obnoxious that he got you guys backed off?
Colin is like the white Larry Bird from beyond the arc… 😂👏🏻
Thanks for this video and for knowledge of other people i lost 18 hand in row .😅
Just lose 7 hands in a row. Somehow still made a little profit thanks to your video
House limits crushed any Martingale success years ago.
I attempted to point this out in their comments before and was automatically deleted upon posting. They deserve legal action against them
6:57 is a little misleading. With an infinite bankroll, you would never technically lose money on average
I used this strategy and won $3,800 on a cruise ship last week. Got off the cruise in Mexico and immediately lost $200 (in pesos).
An absolute safe way to have a losing rate of 0,0 % is to not play casino games like blackjack that are designed to make the casinos rich
Yo! Y'all ever try advantage playing slots? I'm guessing yes
Not sure about US but all Asian casino blackjack table will put back the used card to the shuffle machine. Card counting doesn’t work in this setup right?
They're uncommon to find in the US
@@Blackjackapprenticeship 🥲jealous
Just watched his video and right after that this video...i was sure what he was saying is not possible as gambler. Any thing possible when playing online blackjack
If you're counting and the count is getting higher would the logic on the martingale change in hopes for a blackjack or action hand? At least until the count dropped? Also taking into consideration heat from the casino. If they see you do that wouldn't they assume youre not an advantage player?
The problem is that it would massively increase risk and variance, which would likely crush your bankroll.
@@Blackjackapprenticeship the number of times I've had someone ask me to sit out so they could martingale without interference 🤣🤣 i don't count at all, just play for fun. Half the fun is watching the superstitious do their thing. Thanks for takin the time to reply 🤘🤘
Love the presentation.
colin,
When you srarted card counting do you remember how your nerves were? Would you say you were nervous or confident? I remember going to a casino for my 23rd birthday not to count but just to experience blackjack and idk why i couldn't bring myself to sit at the table. Sorry if that sounds silly.
Nerves are super common at the beginning! It's a new environment, the best way to combat that is to spend some time in them, even if you're not playing, you can adapt to the noise, vibe, interactions.
That form though
This is a good video to just teach basic statistics in general
Variance alone isn't winning, basic strategy and counting create the winnings
The probability of an individual event remains the same every time. It's not that if I got heads on a coin the next time it's more likely that I will get tails. So every time I play a hand of blackjack the probability of me hitting a loss after 5 wins in a row is 2,8% and it doesn't increase if I win more hands. This is the gambler's mindset when playing Roulette for example: "Oh I got red 5 times! Now it's more likely that I'll get black", which is absolutely false.
What Colin says is, that you always have to look at the grand scheme, you have to look at an infinite number of events. In the long run this 2,8% probabilty of losing after 5 wins in a row will show up inevitably.
Well said. Ty
lol nice let em know my man!
It’s literally a casino trying to say you can win with the ‘strategy’ which is Outrageous
Where in Washington did you film you walking across the rosd?
Wouldn’t surprise me if that virtual table was rigged in some way
I love how you use maths to blow his points out of the water
Is the basic strategy for Pontoon different than blackjack?
As I understand it, Pontoon is another name for Spanish 21 and it does have a vastly different basic strategy chart from normal blackjack.