So....What do you guys think? Is he a first rounder? If not, where is he? As always, I'd love to know what you thought coming into the video and if this video did or didn't change your mind. Let's talk ball! Also, check out my second channel here :) www.youtube.com/@TheMoreJumboPackage
I think this is a great breakdown, I would have loved a mention of the texas game tho. He flashed some real playmaking ability imo. Dodging sacks and making tight window throws, even doing qb runs where he looked reasonably athletic, it shows his real ceiling even if was just a flash.
Very good point! He definitely looked more mobile than expected in that Texas game and I should have mentioned it during the breakdown. Although I've watched the broadcast footage, I wasn't able to get any all-22 of that specific game so I'd be really interested to know how that game would change my overall evaluation, if at all. But I do agree with you that he was surprisingly elusive in that game and flashed some playmaking ability. I think Penix's flashes are why he is such an intriguing prospect - he's not just one of these late round fliers with tools, but has put himself a step above many of those types of prospects with flashes of elite play here and there.
@@TheJumboPackage I agree, I would love for you to make longer content on these things cuz I think you do a great job of brining nuance to the table! Keep up the great vids!
Although I stand by my opinion, I hope he proves you right and proves me wrong. I've only heard good things about him as a person and he seems like an excellent individual so I'd love to see him succeed!
Every time I watch him, I end up thinking that he's a taller Russell Wilson who needs some more polish. I think, if he can stay healthy, he'll be more mobile than advertised right now.
Yesssss this video is exactly what I’ve been saying this whole time and everyone just thinks I’m crazy. He’s so wildly inconsistent and just relies on YOLO balls wayyy too much. My Raiders have been linked to him and I’ll be pretty skeptical and frustrated if they draft him. Because I don’t see him getting better in some of these areas. It’s very rare for a QB who struggles with pressure to get better when the defense is now bigger and faster. His adjusted comp % while under pressure is one of the lowest in this draft and is even lower than Zach Wilson. That usually always translates in the NFL negatively. Thank you for the video breakdown and glad I’m not the only one who sees him this way.
Thank you for commenting, really glad you enjoyed the video! I’m in a similar spot where my team, the Jets, have been linked to him a lot too. I’d definitely be concerned with him being the pick. I could see a world in which he improves his issues, but I also just don’t love making a pick where he has that much to improve. Hopefully he proves me wrong!
I think of all the things about Penix that aren't ideal, I can overlook all of them but the long delivery. That's the one thing that's hard to get away with at the next level. The ceiling is sky high if he can figure that out. But I think it's what gives him the highest bust chance of the canon top 6 quarterbacks in this draft.
I think NFl coaching will help depending on who his coach is but idk nit a professional scout. Hopefully a NFL coach will help his become better ..but if he sits im sure he can work on this
Every QB I have ever watched film on often didn't throw to the perceived open WR and on a lot of the negative throws guys weren't open either. I'm not saying he's risk free but after the top 3 QBs he looks more like a pro QB and I would even say he translates in some ways better than Maye if he was 22 and didn't have an injury history he would be a lock to go early in rd1.
Well, when you start out by calling him Michael Penis it doesn’t sound like you’re being very neutral. But I do think you make some good criticisms. But I think all college QBs and some pros have the same issues. I noticed about a third of the way through the season when Penix had a few interceptions in the red zone it seemed like the coaches might have shut him down over the middle. But the guy has skills and I think with a good NFL QB coach and a couple of years behind the starter he could learn to layer throws and find his second receiver. The long ball that he has is one thing most NFL QBs don’t have. So if he can learn to make those short and intermediate throws the guy is a hall of famer.
First, I think that's a fair criticism of the video- Admittedly it was just a joke, but for scouting prospects, especially ones I'm not high on, it can definitely give off the perception that I'm being biased. I approached his film with an open mind and only wrote that joke in after the rest of the script and his evaluation was done, but I would tend to agree that it gives off the perception that I'm not giving him a fair shake. I think he's a high-level deep thrower and agree he has to work on the short and intermediate throws. Unfortunately for him, he's coming into an age of the NFL where defenses are playing very conservative-type defenses that limit the long ball at all costs and put a premium on allowing throws to the middle of the field / short underneath throws and then coming up to tackle. I am not saying he can't adjust his game to become better in all areas, but his film makes it a concern for me. As I said in the video, I wish him the best - I hope he proves my evaluation wrong!
Whoever passes on Penix Jr won't have a job for long. Yes injury concern is valid but hadn't been hurt for last 2 seasons. Best gunslinger this side of the Mississippi
Injury history is his only downfall.. He had a lot of nfl throws.. tight windows.. tya on the other hand had top recievers and top oline at Alabama.. Tua recievers always had at least 1 1/2 yards of separation.. in the texas game penix recievers we're covered and he was fitting passes in tight windows.. a little more research and film
It kind of looks like your'e cherry picking with some of the bad throws/decisions there are a ton of good/great throws/decisions for every poor one. I think in a draft that's not as strong in the QB position he would easily be a top ten pick and if he had no injury history he would also be a top ten pick. I think on injury history holds him back a bit but he should go in the top 20 picks or so. He has a lot of transferable skills to the NFL and I could easily see him being a good/great pro. One thing I noticed which I was not aware of until watching some film, is how well he moves around inside the pocket he had much better feet than I thought. He was unlucky coming out in this years draft but that may help him in the long run because he probably won't be drafted by a bad team and I could see him being a good fit for a team with some weapons like the Raiders an added bonus is their defense should be great and he won't be playing from behind and throwing 40+ times in obvious passing situations.
To be fair, It'd be impossible for me to refute a cherry picking allegation unless I show every single clip of him that I watched and that would make the video take forever. I actually addressed that very point in this video. I could see a world in which he becomes a great pro, and I certainly hope he reaches that potential because I love to see players succeed. However, my tape watch of him didn't give me a great feeling that he'd reach that potential. But hopefully you're right and I'm wrong because I'll be rooting for him to turn into a high level QB!
Correct and I do understand that what I meant is you showed a ton of negative plays in situations where sometimes he had nowhere to throw and I didn't see nearly as many positive plays in a year where the guy had a huge amount of them. I'm not trying to say he's a bonafide future star or anything but he has a shot to be a good pro. .@@TheJumboPackage
So....What do you guys think? Is he a first rounder? If not, where is he? As always, I'd love to know what you thought coming into the video and if this video did or didn't change your mind. Let's talk ball!
Also, check out my second channel here :) www.youtube.com/@TheMoreJumboPackage
I think this is a great breakdown, I would have loved a mention of the texas game tho. He flashed some real playmaking ability imo. Dodging sacks and making tight window throws, even doing qb runs where he looked reasonably athletic, it shows his real ceiling even if was just a flash.
Very good point! He definitely looked more mobile than expected in that Texas game and I should have mentioned it during the breakdown. Although I've watched the broadcast footage, I wasn't able to get any all-22 of that specific game so I'd be really interested to know how that game would change my overall evaluation, if at all. But I do agree with you that he was surprisingly elusive in that game and flashed some playmaking ability. I think Penix's flashes are why he is such an intriguing prospect - he's not just one of these late round fliers with tools, but has put himself a step above many of those types of prospects with flashes of elite play here and there.
@@TheJumboPackage I agree, I would love for you to make longer content on these things cuz I think you do a great job of brining nuance to the table! Keep up the great vids!
@@andrewvalencia9012 Thank you, I really appreciate that - it means a lot!!
Great Video! Hard to find such well thought out football content on youtube
Thank you, I really appreciate that!
Easily the best passer in the draft. The disrespect he's been given by the media has been absurd..
did you actually watch the video?
Although I stand by my opinion, I hope he proves you right and proves me wrong. I've only heard good things about him as a person and he seems like an excellent individual so I'd love to see him succeed!
Hope he becomes a Raider
I'd like that fit!
Every time I watch him, I end up thinking that he's a taller Russell Wilson who needs some more polish. I think, if he can stay healthy, he'll be more mobile than advertised right now.
I think that's a great comp! I could definitely see that outside of Russ's advantage in mobility.
Yesssss this video is exactly what I’ve been saying this whole time and everyone just thinks I’m crazy. He’s so wildly inconsistent and just relies on YOLO balls wayyy too much. My Raiders have been linked to him and I’ll be pretty skeptical and frustrated if they draft him. Because I don’t see him getting better in some of these areas. It’s very rare for a QB who struggles with pressure to get better when the defense is now bigger and faster. His adjusted comp % while under pressure is one of the lowest in this draft and is even lower than Zach Wilson. That usually always translates in the NFL negatively. Thank you for the video breakdown and glad I’m not the only one who sees him this way.
Thank you for commenting, really glad you enjoyed the video! I’m in a similar spot where my team, the Jets, have been linked to him a lot too. I’d definitely be concerned with him being the pick. I could see a world in which he improves his issues, but I also just don’t love making a pick where he has that much to improve. Hopefully he proves me wrong!
I think of all the things about Penix that aren't ideal, I can overlook all of them but the long delivery. That's the one thing that's hard to get away with at the next level. The ceiling is sky high if he can figure that out. But I think it's what gives him the highest bust chance of the canon top 6 quarterbacks in this draft.
Interesting! I wouldn't say that's my largest qualm with his game, but I'd agree it is somewhat of a problem.
I think NFl coaching will help depending on who his coach is but idk nit a professional scout. Hopefully a NFL coach will help his become better ..but if he sits im sure he can work on this
Definitely- I don’t doubt he can improve!
Every QB I have ever watched film on often didn't throw to the perceived open WR and on a lot of the negative throws guys weren't open either. I'm not saying he's risk free but after the top 3 QBs he looks more like a pro QB and I would even say he translates in some ways better than Maye if he was 22 and didn't have an injury history he would be a lock to go early in rd1.
Well, when you start out by calling him Michael Penis it doesn’t sound like you’re being very neutral. But I do think you make some good criticisms. But I think all college QBs and some pros have the same issues. I noticed about a third of the way through the season when Penix had a few interceptions in the red zone it seemed like the coaches might have shut him down over the middle. But the guy has skills and I think with a good NFL QB coach and a couple of years behind the starter he could learn to layer throws and find his second receiver. The long ball that he has is one thing most NFL QBs don’t have. So if he can learn to make those short and intermediate throws the guy is a hall of famer.
First, I think that's a fair criticism of the video- Admittedly it was just a joke, but for scouting prospects, especially ones I'm not high on, it can definitely give off the perception that I'm being biased. I approached his film with an open mind and only wrote that joke in after the rest of the script and his evaluation was done, but I would tend to agree that it gives off the perception that I'm not giving him a fair shake. I think he's a high-level deep thrower and agree he has to work on the short and intermediate throws. Unfortunately for him, he's coming into an age of the NFL where defenses are playing very conservative-type defenses that limit the long ball at all costs and put a premium on allowing throws to the middle of the field / short underneath throws and then coming up to tackle. I am not saying he can't adjust his game to become better in all areas, but his film makes it a concern for me. As I said in the video, I wish him the best - I hope he proves my evaluation wrong!
I see q Matthew Stafford goff tua type somewhere in between that?he needs to work on his short passes.
Jets probably draft rattler or Travis would be good to sit and develop
I could see it!
Pretty please cover Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy
Working on it!
Out now- Let me know what you think!
Whoever passes on Penix Jr won't have a job for long. Yes injury concern is valid but hadn't been hurt for last 2 seasons. Best gunslinger this side of the Mississippi
His WR doesn't break strides when catching his balls.
Injury history is his only downfall.. He had a lot of nfl throws.. tight windows.. tya on the other hand had top recievers and top oline at Alabama.. Tua recievers always had at least 1 1/2 yards of separation.. in the texas game penix recievers we're covered and he was fitting passes in tight windows.. a little more research and film
ruclips.net/video/azLaNDNpx_M/видео.htmlsi=HjuX9iKEEeI_l7k_
I also like that he ran an offense that at least resembles an NFL one guys like Nix scare me one read and throw that's not happening in the NFL.
It kind of looks like your'e cherry picking with some of the bad throws/decisions there are a ton of good/great throws/decisions for every poor one. I think in a draft that's not as strong in the QB position he would easily be a top ten pick and if he had no injury history he would also be a top ten pick. I think on injury history holds him back a bit but he should go in the top 20 picks or so. He has a lot of transferable skills to the NFL and I could easily see him being a good/great pro. One thing I noticed which I was not aware of until watching some film, is how well he moves around inside the pocket he had much better feet than I thought. He was unlucky coming out in this years draft but that may help him in the long run because he probably won't be drafted by a bad team and I could see him being a good fit for a team with some weapons like the Raiders an added bonus is their defense should be great and he won't be playing from behind and throwing 40+ times in obvious passing situations.
To be fair, It'd be impossible for me to refute a cherry picking allegation unless I show every single clip of him that I watched and that would make the video take forever. I actually addressed that very point in this video. I could see a world in which he becomes a great pro, and I certainly hope he reaches that potential because I love to see players succeed. However, my tape watch of him didn't give me a great feeling that he'd reach that potential. But hopefully you're right and I'm wrong because I'll be rooting for him to turn into a high level QB!
Correct and I do understand that what I meant is you showed a ton of negative plays in situations where sometimes he had nowhere to throw and I didn't see nearly as many positive plays in a year where the guy had a huge amount of them. I'm not trying to say he's a bonafide future star or anything but he has a shot to be a good pro. .@@TheJumboPackage
Late 3rd round for giants i hope
That'd be interesting! Could see him becoming an excellent QB with Brian Daboll!
I disagree with your opinion but good video
Thank you, I appreciate that! Hopefully he'll prove you right and prove me wrong!