Biggest Debt Bubble Of All Time: What Happens When It Implodes? | David Hay & Grant Williams
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- Опубликовано: 7 авг 2024
- David Hay, Co-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal and Grant Williams, Host of The Grant Williams Podcast, discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors in 2024.
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*This video was recorded on December 8, 2023
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0:00 - Intro
3:48 - Investment themes
5:38 - Taking profits?
8:28 - Small vs large cap stocks
10:00 - Banks and tech stocks
13:30 - Bonds
17:43 - Bubble 3.0
25:10 - Investing during a recession
28:41 - Will the Fed save the economy?
32:30 - Inflation
34:45 - Best and worst assets in 2024
42:00 - Debt bubble
#economy #investing #stocks
Ride the momentum in stocks or take profits now? What would you do before the year-end? Comment below and don't forget to "like" this video and subscribe!
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Melt up in progress. +41.3% in our flagship portfolio thanks (in part) to JPowell !
KITCO got hacked 😱
Play the credit swap in the options market.
I’ve had majority of my holdings in tech stocks and irrespective of market changes, I’ve done pretty well especially with apple’s P/E(price to earnings ratio) gaining over 30% this past decade, now my questions is what stocks do you think will be the next apple in terms of growth for the next decade.
It might be difficult finding the next apple within the tech stock sector, apple has performed way better than the others, maybe look outside of tech stocks.
well things are different now, same market strategies applied over last decade wouldn’t apply to the current market, so to actually figure out how to outperform the market and stay afloat for the next decade, you should reach out to a financial advisor, that’s how I’ve managed to gain over $450k in profit this past couple years
@@maryHenokNft How can i reach her, because I’m seeking for a more effective investment approach on my saving.
Do your homework and choose one that has strategies to help your portfolio grow consistently and steadily. *Camille Alicia Garcia* is responsible for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she possesses the qualifications and expertise to meet your goals.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Ive had the feeling BTC would be going to 40k as well. Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and AMZ650K only, maybe a little BNB.
How can I buy these? Do you have a telegram channel I can chat on?
I really appreciated this video, as a medium-term AMZ650K holder. I know you commented on not many people paying attention to this, but it was very relevant for holders such as myself. After watching your thoughts, I willbuy more. I also remember your ear
Scammer be warned
Bot please go to sleep
About 1/3 of new jobs are government jobs.
In Canada it’s 100 percent
Yes when the economy slows down like it is now the Government share rises but that is just technical as the economy speeds up again the Government share will fall dramatically. It is important to remember that the Role of the Government is like a Shock Absorber they dampen bad economic times or the down cycle so this is just natural force which is the same in all countries
Or people taking on second or third jobs to keep up.
The reason the great depression of the 1930s, lasted so long was that president FDR created huge numbers of government jobs. When Coolidge was president and the stock market crashed more than 50% , Coolidge lowered taxes and reduced the government workforce.
@@drscopeify I disagree and so does Amity Shlaes author of The Forgotten man
David Your videos are compulsory viewing. I appreciate all your work and well done, 2023 has been a hell of a good year for you. 2024 promises to be even better for you - its all so well deserved! Keep going! 💪🏻
I may have finished my BA but my education continues because of channels like yours, David. Thanks…this feeds my yearning for intellectual discourse.
This was a great use of my time .excellent interviewer and great guests . Thank you very much!
David, today the Fed was dovish out of fear of the Stock Market crashing before their next meeting on January 30th 2024...With rebound inflation on the horizon the DOW should have been down 3000 points ...
Not with oil soon going sub $70 it isn't!
The double guest model is genius David! You are the best economist/ financial market host in the game brother. Big Daddy Lin putting in work! Thanks brother! Excellent show!
I literally cannot wait until it all comes apart. I'm so tired of it all.
Working hard David! Take care of yourself!
Grant's smile @42:24 followed up with 'Stiff Drink Time"!😂 Thank you Grant.
Yesterday, JP indicated that the FED might cut rates independent of any economic crises. This will ignite an unprecedented and almost unstoppable equity stampede into Q1. Instead of breaking hard after seeing the concrete wall in front of us, we will speed up our vehicle to supersonic speed and produce a gigantic crash as a consequence. When? Hard to tell.
What would cause that crash?
No one knows, we can only speculate (dubiously), that's why we call them black swan events.@@drscopeify
If JP told THE TRUTH the markets would crash..He had to say that.
Thank you for the interview
Blue-Chip, David. Thanks for your work. It's so important at the precipitous times in the global markets. 🤝🏻
great review. wish you asked about property market thx David.
Great show David! Always value David Hays opinion and impressed by Grant too. Keep it up man!
I loved how Powell said today that we are probably in a resession now and that they could happen any time, subtly extinguishing the fear. Has he made such a statement previously? I thought he was being cleverly shrewd. 😮😅
I thought I was going crazy, and that I was the only one that heard that. lol I literally started laughing.. 😂 hilarious
Great interview David!
Great... good interview
Great video
Thanks guys
Very nice and timely interviews! 👍
Keep it up David love the videos!
really enjoying your videos and guests. you seem to be getting many videos out which is also good. Thanks for this and please keep the vids coming.
Guest nailed it, both buying and selling 3-5% of postion at a time has improved my account value drastically
Great discussion
Great depression
Excellent interview, but but a good example, how mercilessly fast things are moving today. In the perspective of yesterdays FED meeting, some of the messages appear a bit ‘outdated’.
David you know your stuff and you're a really super interviewer 👍 TY
Hes so happy about the Recession coming in, like hes super excited to be witnessing it.
He is in deep shit
I really enjoyed these guys.
Happy holidays David 🥰
Its a paradox: the market goes up on hopes that interest rates will get cut, but interest rates will only get cut if the economy falls into recession.
They will cut rates 3 times to Goose economy to claim Bidenomics works? It doesnt
Just want to say that I appreciate your picks for who you promote on your channel for sponsored videos and such. Nice and professional stuff and no spammy or shady things. It's refreshing. :)
Your 2 guests are brilliant....as well as you
If I had listened to all these predictions of the last decades, I would have never owned stocks in my lifetime. Yes, bad things happen, but not when they want.
The clicking jingo at the end is great. Got to listen to the whole segment so I get to hear it.
Nobody knows. All they're doing is guessing.
Great info! Inverse etf webs is the tip of the day.
Everyone seems to have that crystal ball they used to say they didn't have 🤣
Like Lobo Tigre says: When everyone realizes that everyone realizes they're only making choices on what everyone else thinks, and the crystal ball comes out--Look Out Below!
I recently looked at the Dow and national debt charts overlayed. 1980-2000 saw the Dow rise about 11x and the debt about 5.5x, and from 2000 to present the Dow rose about 4x and the debt 6x.
Money? Gold and silver from the US Treasury. IOUs are not MONEY. IOUs are debt, a promissory note with counter risk. IOUs are not money. Debt is not money. Pixels and digits are not money. People are VERY CONFUSED about what money is. Promises are not money. Please stop calling IOUs, "money". Only gold and silver is an honest measure, money. Don't measure reality with IOU fantasies, debt.
Money is what people will accept in payment.
Great discussion, at least in between the EXCESSIVE commercials…
These men are top notch!
Kickiing the can (debt).down the road
Best hair on the internet
Two Titans!! 🙏🏼
Regarding Student debt - why don't they allow Student debt to be forgiven in bankruptcy - currently unallowable.
Hair is Wild!
bring up that TLT history chart please and match it with the amount of consumer debt history
What about the buyer of Macy's taking it private. Are they confident that the economy will be returning to normal? It's hard to imagine that MMT will work out as expected.
I think what they are saying...and I would really appreciate feedback, but the message seems clear: "Keep some dry powder at the ready"... Nes't-ce pas?
Good interview spoilt by mindnumbingly frequent RUclips ads. If the ads don't reduce I would end up switching to watching something else!
I realized that because of my viewing time of RUclips, I pay for RUclips Premium, and never looked back. It's the only monthly recurring payment worth paying. No commercials.
Me thinketh thanks again David., another....... great podcast!@!?😉
WHEN??????
DAVID!!!😊
An excellent interview from start to finish! David, your questions are always insightful and move your guest, along and away that listeners benefit from. Thank you! Great guests
He is a rock star🌟
I always thought Grant Williams named it after the song “things that make you go hmm” (since he’s around my age😅)
An ounce of gold is ALWAYS an ounce of gold. An IOU changes in price and value from hour to hour reflected in the stocks, bonds, and prices. Dow was $360 in 1929 and $36,000 in 2022 BUT 18 ounces of gold in and same price, ounces of gold in 2022.
Gold is negative 40% vs M2 money supply since 2011. It is being eroded by inflation. Thus BITCOIN! Destroying inflation since 2009.
Agree but remember Teddy stole American's gold. If folks didn't turn it in they got a huge fine and or jail time.
Fractional reserve lending creates dept, the whole system is dept based. So as a Lehman why does dept truly matter?
this is power duo
We need Peter Schiff vs Steve Hanke debate on inflation in 2024
When will any of these experts address the massive decline in productivity.
We were interrupted during this wonderful commentary was like 6 ??
BUY PHYSICAL SILVER !
The most undervalued and underrated commodity on earth !
And is the most manipulated too. That’s the problem…..
Also the poorest performing asset of all time.
I always short it when it gets high. Yes I do buy physical as well.
You won’t be so negative once it takes off and is decoupled from the paper crap .
@@rudeawakening3833 Sorry but probs will never happen.
David is future Fed Chair
When does reality sink in?
Market open January 2, 2024
Im DCAing in AMZ650K as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. Im taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!
Google is killing you on incessant commercials. Extremely annoying
Hay maker
I would argue more people dont stake AMZ650K because you can do more with AMZ650K , and staking is harder to do so users do nothing or use liquid staking
Why will deficits matter? Why at $35 Trillion and not $25 Trillion? Why not $100 Trillion? The dollar has been losing value since 1913. I don't get what will trigger a situation where sovereign debt "matters?"
When you see the likes of Buffett selling, it's time to jump ship. Why hang on for an extra few %
Damn. Too many ads David!
39:50
Bubble bubble coldrum and trouble, bubble bubble knees toes and stubble, bubble bubble were in big trouble, buy silver and gold and look at the hubble, the sky is the place where you'll see the price silver and gold isn't it nice!
Not 33 Trillion ... closer to 34 trillion ! We will hit that before the year ends.
On AMZ650K Go long when the sell pressure reduce. As short on the opposite.
The FED has started easing again if you add in the repo drawdown - precisely matching the timing of the recent equity price increases.
Repo market will dry up by Feb or March of 2024. Then things might get really intersting.
@@bpb5541can you pls expand more? Do you see gold going off the roof?
You cannot look as sovereign debt in the same light as a company or household, especially when that Sovereign is the Global Reserve. Sovereigns always break in the end, but it will be the population that will work out the distribution of real resources when that break occurs. So called wealth accumulates in the hands of the few. When it does break, then the few will be facing revolt from the many. USA does possess many resources. It will be interesting indeed.
What side are you on as AMZ650K divides the wealthy from the poor?
My largest holding is Amazons AMZ650K. Glad it came out to be this. I’m a fanboy and I like jeff. He reminds me of Steve Jobs when he speaks.
Let's go Bidon😂.
$= for the museum..
Great video. Im a huge AMZ650K fan and love your videos on it.
I heard tjis over the last 1 year and the share market is bouncing back up.
David is predicting recession; wants to buy oil and avoid TLT...🤔
Look at 10 yr charts 15 yr charts of semiconductors lam research monolithic power look at meta and so many more, how can we not be in for a day of reckoning soon? Scarey
there is no confusion , stocks doing what they do, go higher.
Until they don't like say 2000 and 2008.
Good luck. Nothing is going up forever.
Too many ads make it impossible to get into the conversation.
AMZ650K and Ebay signed a partnership. It will blow up once it hits mainstream..
There will be buyers for US Debt. I am not concerned about that
I am so glad to hear you say that. I am however very concerned especially with yields dropping. At some point the Treasury interest rates on bonds will be too low to attract buyers to take on that risk. Then yeilds surge and bonds/stock market crash. This is the real risk IMO. Especially at these bubble levels and huge debt levels. Could get interesting we will see in Feb or March of 2024 what happens after the Repo market runs out of money.
@@bpb5541Treasuries will be the asset that investors hold durimg a recession or a crisis. Look at the past crises. They all play out the same way. Smart money pours into US Treasuries. Why? Its the world reserve currency. There isn't any currency to challenge the $USD. Per debt, the US has the cleanest shirt. Comparative.to other currencies, it is more sensible to hold $USD.
Nothing will happen , the FED will buy any debt that put a stress on the system! Unlimited power by a stroke of a key on the keyboard :-)
Unfunded liabilities dwarf the nominal national debt. With a down turning economy the amount they must print, which is the amount they must inflate, is truly unprecedented! Invest accordingly and wait. I will leave the dashing out for pennies in front of this steamroller to the day traders.
🙏
There's too much confusion, I can't get no relief.
However, two riders are approaching, so relax.
there is no bullish case for gold until the whole world is shorting it above 2k....
I used to think it was a problem until I realized it isn't a problem. Just put the debt in a different column. Done.
I am glad you mentioned current market cap and possible future market cap of AMZ650K . Don’t freak out people, it’s just a freaking bet.