OMG. Thanks. Lately, between TWiVs, I feel like I'm losing my tenuous grip on reality. Our government takes me to never-never land and TWiV brings me back to sanity. Really. You guys are doing more than making virology accessible. Thanks again. ☺️🙏
This podcast needs to go viral. Michael Mina has a pandemic - breaking approach. Cheap daily home testing. Can isolate before anyone infected. It is phenomenal ...A spit test! Safe way to open schools, colleges, bars, wherever. Needs big policy change, investment, development. Get those test strips manufactured. Trying to spread the word. These guys & gals just brilliant.
Dr. Mina needs to book some time on all the late night talk shows like Colbert. I find it hard to believe they would say no. They have audiences in the millions.
After listening to this and Med Cram covering Dr. Mina, I began advocating for rapid antigen testing at my facility (subacute rehab). Today we started rapid antigen testing! I am so thankful for what I have learned via your work. My son is proudly wearing his TWiV hoodie on his Zoom classroom events (senior in High School).
This is one of the most important ideas for the world right now, including the economy, assuming it's not a radical idea by one or a small minority of people. Not only schools can benefit, but businesses, hospitals, too, and very importantly elder care facilities. This is yet another extremely good show making it worthwhile to watch whether a lay person like myself or in the field. Thanks!
@@Cubannerd I sent the info to the Premier of Ontario. It will be included with all the compalints from the teachers union asking for more money for PPE supplies along with more of everything else.
Would it be at all possible to get a few minute clips for some of these really important points to get to the public? I noticed you are on twitter but I think if you posted, for example, a snip of the conversation about using the 1$ tests everyday for school kids that would absolutely go (excuse my pun) viral and get the public behind it.
Its 14 deg C in this part of Australia. I think that means all the fish have migrated north. My bird hides in the trees. Your podcast is welcome at lunch time on a day of miserable weather
What a brilliant mind blowing concept this young amazing gentleman is explaining. We really are picking up way too many people who may not be infectious at all. God how do we get this out to everyone
Thank you, Michael! For two weeks I have been ranting that we need this for air travel, schools and business. After TWiV 639, hearing saliva is equal to, or better than, nasal pharyngeal, I got really frustrated! Just because we got slammed and went with what existed doesn’t mean we remain dependent upon “old” methods. (🤣) (I have so many other questions I need to send into you all, but I’m afraid I’ll use improper vocabulary. I’m just a former action sports publicist and freelance researcher.)
Yup, especially for Hawaii, one test before getting on plane to he cleared to fly. One more test on arrival after a 5 hr flight to Hawaii to confirm still cleared to deplane.
We need this bullshit corona virus agenda to end, this is not a virus it's an engineered nano particle, the shame is most of you are blind to what's going on in your own environment. A Nation of sheep begets wolves and they not just in the government, they're on this video.
I appreciate you guys and gals. You talk about the science, you talk about the politics, you talk about the virus, you talk sometimes about the hopelessness, I have not heard you talk about MATH+. Do you believe in this non-elegant solution to the cytokine storm? Real doc on front line saving lives every day. I will post the link.
I hope you can “ think through and challenge good and bad what this critical docs is doing. ruclips.net/video/xZJixjgu3tk/видео.html I have no agenda except stopping severe morbidity and mortality.
I'm going to say (as someone who organizes political action type things for a living) that this idea of $1 instant tests is one that we not only need to support, and to contact our own particular elected & appointed officials about, but really one that we need to build a real national movement around and make happen. I've seen so many occasions where organized, nationwide, grass-roots action has been able to move mountains that no amount of experts or even powerful politicians have been able to get done. When political leaders from *all across the country* are starting to hear the same message from constituents, things suddenly become possible that previously seemed impossible. Along the same lines, I am kind of astounded that no popular grassroots type political organization has sprung up to support a rational, scientific, well proven approach to this whole pandemic. We've seen nuts organize on the opposing side, and we've seen have a few organized nuts managed to move the debate 85 yards into opposing territory. But we haven't really seen the opposition to that grow up at all--the organized "silent majority" that just wants a normal, reasonable, rational, well executed response to this situation. (And I will say--maybe this has happened and I just don't know about it and we don't need to *organize it* per se but just join an already established organization working on it. If so, PLEASE let all of us in onto what this secret grassroots covid-killing organization is, and I'm sure a bunch of us will be all over it.) But if we want to organize and actually get something done on this issue on a national level, instead of just grousing about how nothing is happening, here is why I think this almost the ideal issue to organize around on the national level: #1. This really is an effective solution that will really help. It is one simple thing, easily explained, that would, ALONE, make a huge difference. #2. It is doable. With political will and a (relatively) little bit of federal funding, this is something that could become a reality and make a real difference, within a short period of time. #3. Unlike other solutions that are potentially good but sooo difficult politically in our current environment, this is such an *American* solution to this problem. Like, it's technology, it's cutting edge, it's depending on American know-how and the free market system, it's gee whiz, it's something rest of the world isn't doing successfully yet, it's not going to be controversial in the way mask wearing or closing jobs/public places is (though it's a test, it's one you can do privately at home, you don't have to share it with any agency, there is no centralized database, lab, government interference, or generally much to raise people's suspicions or distrust of the government about), it's American, it's freedom, it's the Red-White-and-Blue, it's inexpensive, it has a massively positive benefit/cost ratio, it would make all U.S. political parties and sides look smart, etc etc etc. Also because it's kind of been poo-pooed by certain experts it has that kind of counter cultural edge to it that appeals to a lot of people. "We're going to show all the big-shot 'experts' wrong by using good old American know-how and ingenuity to make a simple easy thing that anybody could have thought of, but the experts thought would fail, and it's going to solve the whole thing." It just has *all* the upsides. And a relatively easy sell. And--not to take it too far--but it *also* and *importantly* strikes me as *exactly* the type of thing the Trump is likely to jump all over, if someone could present this to him in the right way. He loves exactly this kind of U.S., innovative, slightly off the beaten track type thing. So for once he could latch onto something good and useful, instead of bizarre and wrong, and ride that one good thing to it's logical conclusion like he has all of the bizarro things. And if he does jump on it, just a little, and then it starts to take off and pan out even a little bit as an early win, I think he would totally be all over it in the sense of, let's turn this little early nice promising little thing into 'yuuge' win. And did I mention--simple & easy to explain? Like, just the level of complexity certain minds can really grasp. Not just the one you're thinking of, but really a lot of people. Also the fact that a guy like Fauci said on today's podcast that, yeah, this is exactly the type of thing we need and that would really make a difference. That's an indication there is a real amount of latent high-level support for this kind of thing already going on, but it hasn't quite coalesced yet into a viable plan that everyone is behind and that has real political support and federal $$$ behind in a big way. So, that coalescing of support is right there, just waiting to come together. As such things go, it's an easy, almost inevitable win. You're pushing the boulder 10 feet over and off the cliff, not all the way up the mountainside from the valley, then all the way across the rock plain, then up another mountain and THEN over the cliff. Just 10 feet over, and off the cliff. Anyway, that's my pitch. Who is going to jump all over this an do some national organizing and pull in a few logical allied organizations and a bunch of grassroots political outreach (more heavily oriented towards Red States if possible) and get this thing done? It's a pre-packaged winning national campaign that could make a huge positive difference for the future of America. Want to make your name & reputation as an effective grassroots organizer on the national level, here's your chance.
And I'll say, probably TWIV doesn't want to be a political action committee running campaigns like this, but let's say some other group takes the project under it's wing (or just maybe an informal group gets together to start to work together on it), if TWIV would feel OK with just *mentioning* this outside effort regularly for a while, and suggesting a couple of simple things people could do that would make a difference--things like, 'hey there is this web page now where you can go & contact your members of Congress to ask them to support this $1 testing thing, here is the URL"--that might be enough to get some momentum going on it in a pretty quick order. Another potential factor weighing pretty strongly in favor the success of a campaign working on this.
@@bhugh I've reached out to Chris Said, who recently brought up rapidtests.org and is in touch with Michael Mina, and am working to help. Please contact me at jonfrankle@gmail.com; I'd love input from someone with experience organizing political action!
Excellent discussion with Michael Mina. Many thanks for the links to some of his relevant papers. Michael's webpage at Harvard lists many of his other interesting and relevant papers. Regarding the teaching of critical thinking, mentioned at the conclusion of the discussion, a few comments follow. Having taught college chemistry and also having had considerable experience dealing with irrational people, I've reflected considerably on the prevalence of illogical thinking in our society. [After graduate school, I went to law school and worked for law firms focusing on politics and on patent law. So, I've had experience teaching and working with serious scientists and dealing with political people. ] I agree with Vincent. The lack of critical thinking is a big problem. I believe it should be taught in the high school curriculum to better inoculate the public from irrationality. I have long advocated for a core required course on critical thinking skills, and focusing on mathematical, logical, and visual techniques for identifying issues, visualizing issues, analyzing and resolving issues. And for the inclusion of some thermodynamics concepts - things neglected often tend to disorder and once a decision is made, it might not be possible to undo. Contemporary mathematical techniques such as network (graph) theory, game theory, etc., and the powerful technique of proof by contradiction, or showing an obvious absurdity within a selected concept are also powerful skills. These are powerful techniques not widely known or appreciated. Another insight, the problem is not with the bio- and physical science students at the college level, but often with the social science students (especially political science and business students). The effect of not training political science and business students in critical thinking skills is apparent with the ineptitude and foolishness seen in governance these days. The late, great George Abell (UCLA) designed a course years ago that debunked selected foolish and illogical belief systems such as astrology, but I feel his approach was akin to swatting flies, rather than teaching the skills to debunk the countless insanely foolish ideas and conspiracy theories out there. Einstein is said to have proclaimed that there are two infinities. The infinite extent of the universe and infinitude of human stupidity, but he stated that he wasn't sure about the first infinity. It seems obvious that we also have a pandemic of foolishness in society, and the teaching of critical thinking skills is the best inoculation for that pandemic.
@@susanmcdonald9088 Thank you for your comment. I might add a couple of points: Yes, astrology gave birth to early astronomy. And calculating gambling odds, gave birth to early probability and statistics. And ballistics gave birth to some advances in differential equations. Also note that I did not include Humanities and Literature majors with Political Science and Business majors, as being more of a problem in being susceptible to naive beliefs and conspiracy theories. I can give an example. For many years, I sent out April Fool's Day prank papers and jpegs. In the past they included jpegs of spiders the size of cats, flying saucer news headlines, and nonsensical, but seemingly very advanced and abstract mathematical papers purporting to be co-authored by Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. This past April, I felt it wasn't appropriate to send out my April Fool's Day pranks. But I did send out a preprint where a team of physicists proposed spraying ethanol deep into the lungs, to kill the SARS-CoV-2 virus. I jokingly proposed they add a choice of flavoring to the penetrating ethanol mist. The paper and said proposal was taken seriously by most everyone. Those non-scientists that caught the joke were an Indologist, and some musicians and literary people. I was shocked that so many thought it a serious and newsworthy proposal. By the way, the prank mathematical papers purported to be by Trump and Kim were about to be published, and I had to call a newspaper publisher's office to explain that it was an April Fool's Day prank. I am informed that the cat-sized spider jpeg was published in a Japanese magazine, and was about to be published in a U.S. business journal until I called an editor to inform them it was an April Fools Day prank. I have no way of posting these on RUclips, but if Vincent or Brianne are interested, I'd be happy to send them via email.
I just came over from intro to Episode 164, at 57 minutes, now after this i have to go to last weeks episode to hear the scoop! i have some thoughts about ppl in charge too!
AZ needs these inexpensive, fast tests now. My Mom's assisted care home has three positive cases, now hospitalized. But test results are taking over a week. Completely useless in controlling an outbreak
So sorry about your mom's facility. I share your pain. My mom's in a locked down facility, not letting anyone visit. If we had these quick C-19 tests, we could go in and be with her!
This is amazing information. Unfortunately for the US, the administration doesn't seem to be interested anymore in the pandemic. The daily testing would be a great benefit. The pooled testing would be a total game changer for schools and colleges, etc. Just a note that to test 330 million people for 21 days with the 1 dollar test is 6.9 Billion dollars for the tests. Add in some transport and distribution, call it 9 billion dollars. That is a pittance in the great scheme of things for a country as big as the USA.
Re: aversion by politicians to say, “I was wrong:” most of them are lawyers and to a lawyer--in my assessment as an outsider, so I could be wrong here also--saying you are wrong is tantamount to saying, “please sue me.” In the medical field, in the old days we were taught to never say, “I made a mistake,” to patient or family because it would be inviting a lawsuit. Yet, in the last decade or so, we have learned to admit our errors and actually ask the patient’s forgiveness when needed (still resisted by many surgeons ).
Wonderful information (though I always learn amazing things!). I’m just a science educator but I will be looking into any way to get Michael’s information out to anyone who will listen. I don’t have many “powerful” connections, just some just scientists and just educators at the k-12 and post-secondary level. Any suggestions on how I can best help?
Just a former elem science educator here --listening to TWiV these days makes me v glad for all the long hours of prep and effort I put into making inquiry-based science classes exciting for my learners. Scientific understanding begins with engaging curious learners.
M Barnard absolutely. Sadly, I think that much of the “anti-science” and especially in cases like anti-vaxxers, these folks did not receive proper science education. Science is more than baking soda volcanoes- but unfortunately that’s about as good as most kids will get. I think it’s essential that teachers understand the basics on the nature of science and that is then made a significant part of the curriculum. As an educator, I want every student to leave my class knowing the fundamentals of the scientific process (I’m not really talking about the outdated “scientific method”) but the actual nature of what makes science... science. Also- how to evaluate the quality of science information when reported in the main steam media . This is my ultimate goal and I think teaching the nature of science should be woven into almost everything I teach and all student labs.
Very encouraging! Suggestion for Michael: Change your mass-murderer parable to: I roasted a wonderful chicken and sat down for a fantastic meal When I was done a group of microbiologists came in and were definitely able to tell me THIS IS A CHICKEN. However it does not mean the chicken will fly again.
One way this could happen is to get a benefactor to do a trial run of this system in a hotspot, and prove it's worth. Just an idea. A company that starts this up of their own volition could make billions on it, for example. The government isn't working right now. This is real hope to turn around the world economy faster than 2 years.
Interestingly, Michael Mina is changing his original view on involving the private sector. I totally agree with him. How refreshing it is to see scientists expressing changing their minds without fear. That’s what science is about! I quote his Tweet from today, 7/15/2020 (link is below): “I am changing my view. The feds should not just push for cheap paper #COVID19 test strips that everyone can use daily. They should be the ones to make them. The technology exists. The money exists. There is little reason not to do it. These could end the outbreak quickly.” twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1283621437056651264
Sounds like a good idea, certainly worth a large scale trial. If you are having difficulty getting government sponsorship, try approaching other countries.
I'm curious if anyone knows, is it possible to do air testing for a virus in an enclosed space? Maybe to get an idea of if, say, a classroom has a viral load above a certain threshold? Combine daily testing with classroom, (or restaurant, etc) air testing seems like it would be a great combo.
I think that one of the implications (correct me if I am wrong or did not grasp your question correctly) of Michael Mina's assertion is that in a world of $1-10 minute testing you would not need to track anybody. You would always know when you are transmissible.
@@mikekonieczny7588 I agree. But I assume rabidsamfan's point is if you had an infection, got better, tested negative on the strips, continued to test and then later tested positive again. Suggesting if not an actual reinfection then at least a resurgence. Not that it's necessary to prevent spread, but to understand the alleged phenom better.
On testing... dense situations like NYC need a daily. Small, rural towns mail seven tests to everyone , one every other day. The 14 day isolation tracking transitions to quarantine ... Travel? To board an aircraft..
Racan-yelling is a good one. Did I also hear Ranting-iello earlier? And on a very bad day maybe, Vincent 'Ranting-and-Yelling' Racaniello? Watch your blood pressure, Professor, please. All good in Boston and Cambridge where it is a sunny 35C. Continued health and sanity to all. Thank you.
Couple this with wastewater detection. It would save lots of funds and know where to direct even this cheaper testing. If it is built right it could be used in future outbreaks and environmental contaminants. Thanks for the enlightening discussion.
I think it’s important to emphasize that this is only a strategy for asymptomatic or presymptomatic patients, as even the gold standard RT-PCR has a significant false negative rate. Patients with a high clinical suspicion of disease need to continue to treated as positive until definitely determined to be non infectious. Hospital outbreaks have been associated with dependence on the ID NOW test to allow patients into non-COVID wards.
I wonder if poor countries use a divide and conquer approach to figure out where the infected person is. You could sample everyone in a household, combine the samples, keep half and send half up to the next level. Then when you find an infected group sample, you test the samples below, see which one is infected. Then just keep drilling down to the exact house.
How and where can we buy these cheap test strips? Or will the FDA not allow it because it is cost effective and will help to actually stop the spread of the virus.
I hope to be the change I want to see by teaching middle school science. A larger movement in the country is “anti-science” and “anti-intellect.” We been to start with heavily supporting elementary and middle school teachers to help teach basic science inquiry and critical thinking skills --> continuing on through high school. Many teachers need better training whether in service or pre service, given classroom support and then should then be payed to reflect their higher education, and continued learning.
This may be naive but why can't cities decide to use the paper test? I understand that it doesn't have approval. That isn''t a stumbling block really if there are no formal promises. It can be sold with a description that makes that clear. How about using it in one beleaguered city as a community project?
Science: Please apply the simple Covid test once per day and stay home if positive. Half of America: I ain't doin' no such damn thing. You're crappin' on my freedoms.
Ha! Yes! I first heard the "any discipline with science in it's name isn't one" meme from the great electrical engineer Nick Tredennick 25 years ago. It's, sadly, mostly true. 😑 And I, too, am a computer scientist. 😏
Good morning, a beautiful 78f deg here in Baltimore this morning...28c in "twiv" speak. Can you delve into the value of supplements with regard to Covid-19? Things like Elderberry, vitamin D & C, etc. Do they help to stop transmission of the virus or in mitigating the severity once infected? Thank you for giving us such a great podcast !!
Next question: I have three (yes, anecdotal) friends who were very sick in March. 2 took PCR test late in illness. All 3 took antibody tests. All tests were negative. Of course, they might have had flu. However, they all have severe long haul issues. The one thing I know they have in common is Lyme. They all needed Western Blot for their Lyme diagnoses. Having been sick 40-100+ days, they are all very concerned about reinfection. I wondered if Dr Griffin had considered something like this as we begin to see some reinfection in the Northeast. Perhaps a Lyme disease specialist might consider a study of non-Elisa Lyme patients and their severity and serology with respect to SARS2. (Hope I phrased that properly) 😉
Dr. Mina is right on. Cheap, rapid tests could totally change our current situation. Totally! Any interaction involving personal contact which now are to be avoided, could be made possible once again, with minimal risk. Think how this could effect schools, and so many aspects of our economy! I could get a haircut, and take Uber like the good old days.....
The true infection fatality rate is probably much less than 0.5% (measured in antbody test studies) because not every infected makes antibodies and antibody level is decreasing with time. Did you already think of that?
if you are fat or old, over 75, be afraid and hide. The rest, the risk is far less. Unfortunately, most americans are fat and have high blood glucose, glycated complement system. The gov is in bed with food processing. Plus, healthcare industry makes a ton of money off diabetes.
Learning broadly? Yes! What a great idea! You might even think of learning liberally.... Maybe learn the art of different disciplines.... Hey! Maybe a liberal arts curriculum.... A liberal arts education! Where reading and writing are emphasized.... Nah. That could never work. 😑
There is no law preventing these people from talking to their state and city governments to enact some of these measures. The federal government might be incapable of doing this because of leadership, so why are they focusing so much energy on shouting at something that won't listen rather than taking action that might actually lead to results. I'm sure there are countless governors and mayors that would love to take credit for crushing covid to further their political careers.
Here in Manitoba, Canada (just north of ND and MN), by far the major source of covid cases is international truck drivers. Together with water, sewer and electrical workers, truckers are our most essential workers in winter -- we'd all be dead in 2 weeks without them. They're encouraged to go for free tests after they enter Canada, but it would be much better if they could be tested at the border, and then given 14 of these test strips to check themselves for the next 14 days. If these tests can retail for less than $3 a day, or if governments will deliver them free to parents, taxi drivers, bus drivers, store clerks, and restaurant staff, that would really help in giving us a return to normality.
Love this podcast. Great ideas from Dr. Mina. Sadly, I've seen some cranks misusing this information. Someone cited what he had to say on cycles in pcr testing as proof that there are lots of false positives.
Why is not this on the news worldwide, thats my question. Why I haven't seen this on the news as a possible breakout of coronavirus. This should be there, we should try this to solve the Corona virus pandemy
Time to end run the government, and find a university that is willing to employ this concept of consistent, rapid testing for its returning students. Once word gets out how it's easy and helpful it will gain traction.
I have the right to not wear a mask? This smacks of the same outrage expressed about seatbelt and motorcycle helmet LAWS. Guess what? People wear helmets and seatbelts where required by law. Masks would be no different.
The idea sounds good but not realistic. Imagine if each people can self-testing everyday with quick-test so how many tests they need to buy? How they discard the test after using especially when they have a positive result? If the accuracy just about 80%, how could we trust it?
Take it three times over 24 hours and that composite will get you in the range that should satisfy your OCD.. Plus you'll have spent less than you do a Starbucks.
LOL. Professor Emeritus Rich Condit who volunteers his expertise, wisdom, and time to this valuable program should worry about how he looks as he drinks from a cup on camera? Umm, not to worry. He found and married his lovely 'Ms. Right' years ago.
OMG. Thanks. Lately, between TWiVs, I feel like I'm losing my tenuous grip on reality. Our government takes me to never-never land and TWiV brings me back to sanity. Really. You guys are doing more than making virology accessible. Thanks again. ☺️🙏
This podcast needs to go viral. Michael Mina has a pandemic - breaking approach. Cheap daily home testing. Can isolate before anyone infected. It is phenomenal ...A spit test! Safe way to open schools, colleges, bars, wherever. Needs big policy change, investment, development. Get those test strips manufactured. Trying to spread the word. These guys & gals just brilliant.
Dr. Mina needs to book some time on all the late night talk shows like Colbert. I find it hard to believe they would say no. They have audiences in the millions.
After listening to this and Med Cram covering Dr. Mina, I began advocating for rapid antigen testing at my facility (subacute rehab). Today we started rapid antigen testing!
I am so thankful for what I have learned via your work.
My son is proudly wearing his TWiV hoodie on his Zoom classroom events (senior in High School).
WOW, so exciting what Michael Mina lays out on testing! Let's all storm FDA and others to get on this idea!
This is one of the most important ideas for the world right now, including the economy, assuming it's not a radical idea by one or a small minority of people. Not only schools can benefit, but businesses, hospitals, too, and very importantly elder care facilities.
This is yet another extremely good show making it worthwhile to watch whether a lay person like myself or in the field. Thanks!
OMG OMG OMG. How do we band together to help get those tests produced? We could save our country.... Can we start a petition?
@Brian Case let's all share and YES! Keep me posted, if there is a petition I will share it!
@@silviopina_111 shared :)
I just wrote emails to the governor of my state the two senators and my representative. I doubt it will do anything but it's the least I can do.
@@Cubannerd I sent the info to the Premier of Ontario. It will be included with all the compalints from the teachers union asking for more money for PPE supplies along with more of everything else.
We need these types of tests now.. we start school August 4th on Oahu .
Would it be at all possible to get a few minute clips for some of these really important points to get to the public? I noticed you are on twitter but I think if you posted, for example, a snip of the conversation about using the 1$ tests everyday for school kids that would absolutely go (excuse my pun) viral and get the public behind it.
would make my life easier.... endless timestamps are not good clickbait!!
Any use? ruclips.net/video/AZWuyvBAWWQ/видео.html
This would be such a relief for the entire country. Some billionaires should fund this test and just do it.
The billionaires are set to make fortunes from vaccines there’s no way they want this solution
Its 14 deg C in this part of Australia. I think that means all the fish have migrated north. My bird hides in the trees.
Your podcast is welcome at lunch time on a day of miserable weather
What a brilliant mind blowing concept this young amazing gentleman is explaining. We really are picking up way too many people who may not be infectious at all. God how do we get this out to everyone
If our government can't help us through this pandemic, private business and academia may fill in the gaping lack of leadership.
@@angelaurban8812 you watch too much main stream media and believe liars.
thank you so much. that interview with Michael Mina was incredible.
We're listening. Thank god for busy scientists! Thank you for the information and passion.
This was a great episode. I just wrote to Senator Ed Markey asking him to reach out to Dr. Mina about the paper testing platform.
Gavin newsom ca
That's way I like listening to you folk. 'Cos you chat. Cos is relaxed and informal. I hope you can do that in a pub soon. Stay healthy.
Thank you, Michael! For two weeks I have been ranting that we need this for air travel, schools and business. After TWiV 639, hearing saliva is equal to, or better than, nasal pharyngeal, I got really frustrated!
Just because we got slammed and went with what existed doesn’t mean we remain dependent upon “old” methods. (🤣)
(I have so many other questions I need to send into you all, but I’m afraid I’ll use improper vocabulary. I’m just a former action sports publicist and freelance researcher.)
Yup, especially for Hawaii, one test before getting on plane to he cleared to fly. One more test on arrival after a 5 hr flight to Hawaii to confirm still cleared to deplane.
We need this bullshit corona virus agenda to end, this is not a virus it's an engineered nano particle, the shame is most of you are blind to what's going on
in your own environment. A Nation of sheep begets wolves and they not just in the government, they're on this video.
Fascinating discussion and makes so much sense, thank you for these informative podcasts!
The RUclips algorithm brought you to my list. So glad.
that was the best idea I've heard in a long time.. awesome ideas..
I appreciate you guys and gals. You talk about the science, you talk about the politics, you talk about the virus, you talk sometimes about the hopelessness, I have not heard you talk about MATH+. Do you believe in this non-elegant solution to the cytokine storm? Real doc on front line saving lives every day. I will post the link.
I hope you can “ think through and challenge good and bad what this critical docs is doing. ruclips.net/video/xZJixjgu3tk/видео.html I have no agenda except stopping severe morbidity and mortality.
Such a great episode, thanks so much. The emails on this episode were stellar.
It makes a lot of sense. The test turnaround time in areas of high infection rates is really a problem. Hopefully authorities will listen.
This won't be implemented till after the election. Anyone want to bet me?
This is great news! Definitely please make a summary that could be available to the public.
I'm going to say (as someone who organizes political action type things for a living) that this idea of $1 instant tests is one that we not only need to support, and to contact our own particular elected & appointed officials about, but really one that we need to build a real national movement around and make happen.
I've seen so many occasions where organized, nationwide, grass-roots action has been able to move mountains that no amount of experts or even powerful politicians have been able to get done.
When political leaders from *all across the country* are starting to hear the same message from constituents, things suddenly become possible that previously seemed impossible.
Along the same lines, I am kind of astounded that no popular grassroots type political organization has sprung up to support a rational, scientific, well proven approach to this whole pandemic. We've seen nuts organize on the opposing side, and we've seen have a few organized nuts managed to move the debate 85 yards into opposing territory.
But we haven't really seen the opposition to that grow up at all--the organized "silent majority" that just wants a normal, reasonable, rational, well executed response to this situation. (And I will say--maybe this has happened and I just don't know about it and we don't need to *organize it* per se but just join an already established organization working on it. If so, PLEASE let all of us in onto what this secret grassroots covid-killing organization is, and I'm sure a bunch of us will be all over it.)
But if we want to organize and actually get something done on this issue on a national level, instead of just grousing about how nothing is happening, here is why I think this almost the ideal issue to organize around on the national level:
#1. This really is an effective solution that will really help. It is one simple thing, easily explained, that would, ALONE, make a huge difference.
#2. It is doable. With political will and a (relatively) little bit of federal funding, this is something that could become a reality and make a real difference, within a short period of time.
#3. Unlike other solutions that are potentially good but sooo difficult politically in our current environment, this is such an *American* solution to this problem. Like, it's technology, it's cutting edge, it's depending on American know-how and the free market system, it's gee whiz, it's something rest of the world isn't doing successfully yet, it's not going to be controversial in the way mask wearing or closing jobs/public places is (though it's a test, it's one you can do privately at home, you don't have to share it with any agency, there is no centralized database, lab, government interference, or generally much to raise people's suspicions or distrust of the government about), it's American, it's freedom, it's the Red-White-and-Blue, it's inexpensive, it has a massively positive benefit/cost ratio, it would make all U.S. political parties and sides look smart, etc etc etc.
Also because it's kind of been poo-pooed by certain experts it has that kind of counter cultural edge to it that appeals to a lot of people. "We're going to show all the big-shot 'experts' wrong by using good old American know-how and ingenuity to make a simple easy thing that anybody could have thought of, but the experts thought would fail, and it's going to solve the whole thing."
It just has *all* the upsides. And a relatively easy sell.
And--not to take it too far--but it *also* and *importantly* strikes me as *exactly* the type of thing the Trump is likely to jump all over, if someone could present this to him in the right way. He loves exactly this kind of U.S., innovative, slightly off the beaten track type thing. So for once he could latch onto something good and useful, instead of bizarre and wrong, and ride that one good thing to it's logical conclusion like he has all of the bizarro things. And if he does jump on it, just a little, and then it starts to take off and pan out even a little bit as an early win, I think he would totally be all over it in the sense of, let's turn this little early nice promising little thing into 'yuuge' win.
And did I mention--simple & easy to explain? Like, just the level of complexity certain minds can really grasp. Not just the one you're thinking of, but really a lot of people.
Also the fact that a guy like Fauci said on today's podcast that, yeah, this is exactly the type of thing we need and that would really make a difference. That's an indication there is a real amount of latent high-level support for this kind of thing already going on, but it hasn't quite coalesced yet into a viable plan that everyone is behind and that has real political support and federal $$$ behind in a big way.
So, that coalescing of support is right there, just waiting to come together. As such things go, it's an easy, almost inevitable win. You're pushing the boulder 10 feet over and off the cliff, not all the way up the mountainside from the valley, then all the way across the rock plain, then up another mountain and THEN over the cliff. Just 10 feet over, and off the cliff.
Anyway, that's my pitch. Who is going to jump all over this an do some national organizing and pull in a few logical allied organizations and a bunch of grassroots political outreach (more heavily oriented towards Red States if possible) and get this thing done?
It's a pre-packaged winning national campaign that could make a huge positive difference for the future of America.
Want to make your name & reputation as an effective grassroots organizer on the national level, here's your chance.
And I'll say, probably TWIV doesn't want to be a political action committee running campaigns like this, but let's say some other group takes the project under it's wing (or just maybe an informal group gets together to start to work together on it), if TWIV would feel OK with just *mentioning* this outside effort regularly for a while, and suggesting a couple of simple things people could do that would make a difference--things like, 'hey there is this web page now where you can go & contact your members of Congress to ask them to support this $1 testing thing, here is the URL"--that might be enough to get some momentum going on it in a pretty quick order.
Another potential factor weighing pretty strongly in favor the success of a campaign working on this.
@@bhugh I've reached out to Chris Said, who recently brought up rapidtests.org and is in touch with Michael Mina, and am working to help. Please contact me at jonfrankle@gmail.com; I'd love input from someone with experience organizing political action!
I’m ready to jump on the support bandwagon. Tell me the next action items and I’m there.
Thank you. I've been following via audio mostly but watched this YT.
We just did an interview with Dr. Michael Mina to follow up on rapid at-home tests here: ruclips.net/video/CjphzlV5DYo/видео.html
Excellent discussion with Michael Mina. Many thanks for the links to some of his relevant papers. Michael's webpage at Harvard lists many of his other interesting and relevant papers.
Regarding the teaching of critical thinking, mentioned at the conclusion of the discussion, a few comments follow. Having taught college chemistry and also having had considerable experience dealing with irrational people, I've reflected considerably on the prevalence of illogical thinking in our society. [After graduate school, I went to law school and worked for law firms focusing on politics and on patent law. So, I've had experience teaching and working with serious scientists and dealing with political people. ] I agree with Vincent. The lack of critical thinking is a big problem. I believe it should be taught in the high school curriculum to better inoculate the public from irrationality. I have long advocated for a core required course on critical thinking skills, and focusing on mathematical, logical, and visual techniques for identifying issues, visualizing issues, analyzing and resolving issues. And for the inclusion of some thermodynamics concepts - things neglected often tend to disorder and once a decision is made, it might not be possible to undo. Contemporary mathematical techniques such as network (graph) theory, game theory, etc., and the powerful technique of proof by contradiction, or showing an obvious absurdity within a selected concept are also powerful skills. These are powerful techniques not widely known or appreciated. Another insight, the problem is not with the bio- and physical science students at the college level, but often with the social science students (especially political science and business students). The effect of not training political science and business students in critical thinking skills is apparent with the ineptitude and foolishness seen in governance these days. The late, great George Abell (UCLA) designed a course years ago that debunked selected foolish and illogical belief systems such as astrology, but I feel his approach was akin to swatting flies, rather than teaching the skills to debunk the countless insanely foolish ideas and conspiracy theories out there. Einstein is said to have proclaimed that there are two infinities. The infinite extent of the universe and infinitude of human stupidity, but he stated that he wasn't sure about the first infinity.
It seems obvious that we also have a pandemic of foolishness in society, and the teaching of critical thinking skills is the best inoculation for that pandemic.
@@susanmcdonald9088 Thank you for your comment. I might add a couple of points:
Yes, astrology gave birth to early astronomy. And calculating gambling odds, gave birth to early probability and statistics. And ballistics gave birth to some advances in differential equations.
Also note that I did not include Humanities and Literature majors with Political Science and Business majors, as being more of a problem in being susceptible to naive beliefs and conspiracy theories. I can give an example. For many years, I sent out April Fool's Day prank papers and jpegs. In the past they included jpegs of spiders the size of cats, flying saucer news headlines, and nonsensical, but seemingly very advanced and abstract mathematical papers purporting to be co-authored by Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. This past April, I felt it wasn't appropriate to send out my April Fool's Day pranks. But I did send out a preprint where a team of physicists proposed spraying ethanol deep into the lungs, to kill the SARS-CoV-2 virus. I jokingly proposed they add a choice of flavoring to the penetrating ethanol mist. The paper and said proposal was taken seriously by most everyone. Those non-scientists that caught the joke were an Indologist, and some musicians and literary people. I was shocked that so many thought it a serious and newsworthy proposal. By the way, the prank mathematical papers purported to be by Trump and Kim were about to be published, and I had to call a newspaper publisher's office to explain that it was an April Fool's Day prank. I am informed that the cat-sized spider jpeg was published in a Japanese magazine, and was about to be published in a U.S. business journal until I called an editor to inform them it was an April Fools Day prank. I have no way of posting these on RUclips, but if Vincent or Brianne are interested, I'd be happy to send them via email.
Wow. This totally changed my mind on testing! Thanks, Dr. Mina!
Another great episode
It would help to apply more of an engineering mindset (rather than a scientist mindset) to the problem. That's what Michael is doing in my book.
He’s definitely applying a public health angle to his suggestions. So grateful for this type of thinking. It gives hope.
"We" just surpassed the 2K mark in views! GO @TWiV!!!
Thanks guys
This is top thanks for this once again
Very informative!! We need to get this testing on market sooner
I just came over from intro to Episode 164, at 57 minutes, now after this i have to go to last weeks episode to hear the scoop! i have some thoughts about ppl in charge too!
Fantastic information.
AZ needs these inexpensive, fast tests now. My Mom's assisted care home has three positive cases, now hospitalized. But test results are taking over a week. Completely useless in controlling an outbreak
So sorry about your mom's facility. I share your pain. My mom's in a locked down facility, not letting anyone visit. If we had these quick C-19 tests, we could go in and be with her!
This is amazing information. Unfortunately for the US, the administration doesn't seem to be interested anymore in the pandemic. The daily testing would be a great benefit. The pooled testing would be a total game changer for schools and colleges, etc. Just a note that to test 330 million people for 21 days with the 1 dollar test is 6.9 Billion dollars for the tests. Add in some transport and distribution, call it 9 billion dollars. That is a pittance in the great scheme of things for a country as big as the USA.
Re: aversion by politicians to say, “I was wrong:” most of them are lawyers and to a lawyer--in my assessment as an outsider, so I could be wrong here also--saying you are wrong is tantamount to saying, “please sue me.” In the medical field, in the old days we were taught to never say, “I made a mistake,” to patient or family because it would be inviting a lawsuit. Yet, in the last decade or so, we have learned to admit our errors and actually ask the patient’s forgiveness when needed (still resisted by many surgeons ).
BRILLIANT! How can we obtain these cheap tests?
Let's see:
Incubation period: 2-5 days.
Home test strip: with sensitivity ct
Wonderful information (though I always learn amazing things!). I’m just a science educator but I will be looking into any way to get Michael’s information out to anyone who will listen. I don’t have many “powerful” connections, just some just scientists and just educators at the k-12 and post-secondary level. Any suggestions on how I can best help?
Just a former elem science educator here --listening to TWiV these days makes me v glad for all the long hours of prep and effort I put into making inquiry-based science classes exciting for my learners. Scientific understanding begins with engaging curious learners.
M Barnard absolutely. Sadly, I think that much of the “anti-science” and especially in cases like anti-vaxxers, these folks did not receive proper science education. Science is more than baking soda volcanoes- but unfortunately that’s about as good as most kids will get. I think it’s essential that teachers understand the basics on the nature of science and that is then made a significant part of the curriculum. As an educator, I want every student to leave my class knowing the fundamentals of the scientific process (I’m not really talking about the outdated “scientific method”) but the actual nature of what makes science... science. Also- how to evaluate the quality of science information when reported in the main steam media . This is my ultimate goal and I think teaching the nature of science should be woven into almost everything I teach and all student labs.
Agree with Benjamin, if this information can get to the schools chancelors.
Very encouraging! Suggestion for Michael: Change your mass-murderer parable to: I roasted a wonderful chicken and sat down for a fantastic meal When I was done a group of microbiologists came in and were definitely able to tell me THIS IS A CHICKEN. However it does not mean the chicken will fly again.
Haha! I kind of like the murderer one. Always go for the most "impact" when crafting metaphors ;-)
Intriguing! Re quick testing strategy, seems to me (roughly) analogous to DNA sequencing where fidelity of red-out is compensated by deep coverage.
Can we get the at home SARS-Cov-2 paper test SOON please!
One way this could happen is to get a benefactor to do a trial run of this system in a hotspot, and prove it's worth. Just an idea. A company that starts this up of their own volition could make billions on it, for example. The government isn't working right now. This is real hope to turn around the world economy faster than 2 years.
Interestingly, Michael Mina is changing his original view on involving the private sector. I totally agree with him. How refreshing it is to see scientists expressing changing their minds without fear. That’s what science is about!
I quote his Tweet from today, 7/15/2020 (link is below):
“I am changing my view. The feds should not just push for cheap paper #COVID19 test strips that everyone can use daily.
They should be the ones to make them.
The technology exists. The money exists. There is little reason not to do it. These could end the outbreak quickly.”
twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1283621437056651264
It would be perfect for a university to try
Excellent.
Wonderful!
Where can you get these?😊🙏
Sounds like a good idea, certainly worth a large scale trial. If you are having difficulty getting government sponsorship, try approaching other countries.
I'm curious if anyone knows, is it possible to do air testing for a virus in an enclosed space? Maybe to get an idea of if, say, a classroom has a viral load above a certain threshold? Combine daily testing with classroom, (or restaurant, etc) air testing seems like it would be a great combo.
I'd be curious about how this could be used to track people to find out about reinfections.
I think that one of the implications (correct me if I am wrong or did not grasp your question correctly) of Michael Mina's assertion is that in a world of $1-10 minute testing you would not need to track anybody. You would always know when you are transmissible.
@@mikekonieczny7588 I agree. But I assume rabidsamfan's point is if you had an infection, got better, tested negative on the strips, continued to test and then later tested positive again. Suggesting if not an actual reinfection then at least a resurgence. Not that it's necessary to prevent spread, but to understand the alleged phenom better.
What about False Negative PCRs. around 20%. Were they Tested too late?
On testing... dense situations like NYC need a daily. Small, rural towns mail seven tests to everyone , one every other day. The 14 day isolation tracking transitions to quarantine ... Travel? To board an aircraft..
Racan-yelling is a good one. Did I also hear Ranting-iello earlier? And on a very bad day maybe, Vincent 'Ranting-and-Yelling' Racaniello? Watch your blood pressure, Professor, please.
All good in Boston and Cambridge where it is a sunny 35C. Continued health and sanity to all. Thank you.
Couple this with wastewater detection. It would save lots of funds and know where to direct even this cheaper testing. If it is built right it could be used in future outbreaks and environmental contaminants. Thanks for the enlightening discussion.
I think it’s important to emphasize that this is only a strategy for asymptomatic or presymptomatic patients, as even the gold standard RT-PCR has a significant false negative rate. Patients with a high clinical suspicion of disease need to continue to treated as positive until definitely determined to be non infectious. Hospital outbreaks have been associated with dependence on the ID NOW test to allow patients into non-COVID wards.
very nice video, i like
I wonder if poor countries use a divide and conquer approach to figure out where the infected person is. You could sample everyone in a household, combine the samples, keep half and send half up to the next level. Then when you find an infected group sample, you test the samples below, see which one is infected. Then just keep drilling down to the exact house.
How and where can we buy these cheap test strips? Or will the FDA not allow it because it is cost effective and will help to actually stop the spread of the virus.
I hope to be the change I want to see by teaching middle school science. A larger movement in the country is “anti-science” and “anti-intellect.” We been to start with heavily supporting elementary and middle school teachers to help teach basic science inquiry and critical thinking skills --> continuing on through high school. Many teachers need better training whether in service or pre service, given classroom support and then should then be payed to reflect their higher education, and continued learning.
This may be naive but why can't cities decide to use the paper test? I understand that it doesn't have approval. That isn''t a stumbling block really if there are no formal promises. It can be sold with a description that makes that clear. How about using it in one beleaguered city as a community project?
Science: Please apply the simple Covid test once per day and stay home if positive.
Half of America: I ain't doin' no such damn thing. You're crappin' on my freedoms.
Ha! Yes! I first heard the "any discipline with science in it's name isn't one" meme from the great electrical engineer Nick Tredennick 25 years ago. It's, sadly, mostly true. 😑 And I, too, am a computer scientist. 😏
Good morning, a beautiful 78f deg here in Baltimore this morning...28c in "twiv" speak.
Can you delve into the value of supplements with regard to Covid-19? Things like Elderberry, vitamin D & C, etc. Do they help to stop transmission of the virus or in mitigating the severity once infected?
Thank you for giving us such a great podcast !!
If people take notes where are,who, times and keep receipts... might help.
Dr. Seheult sent me here
Next question: I have three (yes, anecdotal) friends who were very sick in March. 2 took PCR test late in illness. All 3 took antibody tests. All tests were negative. Of course, they might have had flu. However, they all have severe long haul issues.
The one thing I know they have in common is Lyme. They all needed Western Blot for their Lyme diagnoses. Having been sick 40-100+ days, they are all very concerned about reinfection.
I wondered if Dr Griffin had considered something like this as we begin to see some reinfection in the Northeast.
Perhaps a Lyme disease specialist might consider a study of non-Elisa Lyme patients and their severity and serology with respect to SARS2. (Hope I phrased that properly) 😉
My daughter too with Lyme history and long hauler symptoms .
Make people responsible 😊
Dr. Mina is right on. Cheap, rapid tests could totally change our current situation. Totally! Any interaction involving personal contact which now are to be avoided, could be made possible once again, with minimal risk. Think how this could effect schools, and so many aspects of our economy! I could get a haircut, and take Uber like the good old days.....
Medcram just update test covid 19 and they talk about this episode
Yes, here is the MedCram episode: ruclips.net/video/h7Sv_pS8MgQ/видео.html
Tests are not cases. Tests are not regulated. So what’s the point?
Your a `case` when you are in hospital, tests tell you when to stay at home.
The $1 test strategy solves a lot AND it is inexpensive to validate. Mixed tactical and strategic thinking is needed.
The true infection fatality rate is probably much less than 0.5% (measured in antbody test studies) because not every infected makes antibodies and antibody level is decreasing with time. Did you already think of that?
if you are fat or old, over 75, be afraid and hide. The rest, the risk is far less. Unfortunately, most americans are fat and have high blood glucose, glycated complement system. The gov is in bed with food processing. Plus, healthcare industry makes a ton of money off diabetes.
Learning broadly? Yes! What a great idea! You might even think of learning liberally.... Maybe learn the art of different disciplines.... Hey! Maybe a liberal arts curriculum.... A liberal arts education! Where reading and writing are emphasized.... Nah. That could never work. 😑
Yes! What a great idea! Oh, the Humanities!!
There is no law preventing these people from talking to their state and city governments to enact some of these measures. The federal government might be incapable of doing this because of leadership, so why are they focusing so much energy on shouting at something that won't listen rather than taking action that might actually lead to results. I'm sure there are countless governors and mayors that would love to take credit for crushing covid to further their political careers.
So Make sure the FDA doesn’t get in the way of this type of testing!,
It's so satisfying to see the machinery click together.
Let's hope Fauci makes this $1 test happen :)
Admit they learned something and have a better answer.
Thank you. I thought that there had never been a vaccine for a Coronavirus but glad that that is possible. I'm learning so much. thank you.
Here in Manitoba, Canada (just north of ND and MN), by far the major source of covid cases is international truck drivers. Together with water, sewer and electrical workers, truckers are our most essential workers in winter -- we'd all be dead in 2 weeks without them. They're encouraged to go for free tests after they enter Canada, but it would be much better if they could be tested at the border, and then given 14 of these test strips to check themselves for the next 14 days. If these tests can retail for less than $3 a day, or if governments will deliver them free to parents, taxi drivers, bus drivers, store clerks, and restaurant staff, that would really help in giving us a return to normality.
It's not the administration. They'd do this if someone got through to them.
Talk to the people at the White House like Fauci....to fix this..
Love this podcast. Great ideas from Dr. Mina.
Sadly, I've seen some cranks misusing this information. Someone cited what he had to say on cycles in pcr testing as proof that there are lots of false positives.
This is a real EUREKA moment in the covid-19 pandemic.
I am afraid cheap tests would be like cheap therapeutics. No one to promote or do trials.
Why is not this on the news worldwide, thats my question. Why I haven't seen this on the news as a possible breakout of coronavirus. This should be there, we should try this to solve the Corona virus pandemy
Time to end run the government, and find a university that is willing to employ this concept of consistent, rapid testing for its returning students. Once word gets out how it's easy and helpful it will gain traction.
I have the right to not wear a mask? This smacks of the same outrage expressed about seatbelt and motorcycle helmet LAWS. Guess what? People wear helmets and seatbelts where required by law. Masks would be no different.
Dude, is Fauci aware of this?
Fauci has talked about pool testing.
Not sure if he looks at medicine through the eyes of corporation or not?
Yes, wow.
He's lying. Austin just got over a streak of 108 degree days. Sounds like he hasn't been out of his house in weeks.
The idea sounds good but not realistic. Imagine if each people can self-testing everyday with quick-test so how many tests they need to buy? How they discard the test after using especially when they have a positive result? If the accuracy just about 80%, how could we trust it?
Take it three times over 24 hours and that composite will get you in the range that should satisfy your OCD.. Plus you'll have spent less than you do a Starbucks.
Microwave, oven, bleach, lysol, alcohol , quat, soap.
The gentleman lower right should watch what he looks like drinking from his cup every few minutes on screen.... unpleasant to watch.
sorry lower left
LOL. Professor Emeritus Rich Condit who volunteers his expertise, wisdom, and time to this valuable program should worry about how he looks as he drinks from a cup on camera? Umm, not to worry. He found and married his lovely 'Ms. Right' years ago.
Someone drank water from a cup!? The horror . . .
Alot of "i think" in this talk. Where my 'i think' is better than your 'i think' no thanks
Why such an obsession with testing when corona has been coexisting with us forever? Shouldn't we be treating corona as family instead of enemy?