When China plugs BRI loans as strategy & 138 nations tot up $385 Bn debt off balance sheets
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- Опубликовано: 27 сен 2024
- #CutTheClutter #ChinaBRI
A startling new research report, 'Banking on the Belt and Road', gives out alarming ‘off balance sheet’ debt figures owed by the poorest countries to China. Shekhar Gupta digs into world's hidden loans worth $385 Billion to China as debt turns into a strategic weapon, and highlights other important points from this comprehensive report. Episode 848 of CutTheClutter.
Additional Research by Sukriti Vats and Amogh Rohmetra
Brought to you by @KiaInd
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Same innocent farmers lynched people. Its normal for farzi farmers to lynch. 🦟
Considering that both the World Bank & International Monetary Fund have accused CCP of Currency Manipulation; I don't believe anything related to China is going to be doing well, because they are refusing to allow for an audit
....meaning sanctions are likely, and further devaluation of the RMB.
It's one of many reasons Companies like Foxconn and H&M are Divesting and moving manufacturing elsewhere.
7
Lol china debt is 57trillion us dollar more than america debt at 45trillion us dollar, not even imf, world bank, adb, eu central bank combine can bail out china if that happened🤣🤣😂😂
@@mrblue3946 ⁰⁰⁰
cracked me up :D - "don't compare average borrowing cost of countries with what HDFC is charging you for housing loan"
😂
Also "Two slap" Theory😊
Hdfc looted me
@@janvysatya6595 kya hogya hamne bhi HDFC ka house loan liya hai
@@nandi7772 if you miss emi they will put too many charges
I have a feeling that next CTC might be on Pandora papers.
Really looking forward to it! There is a lot of clutter in that story that needs to be cut.
Yup, correct!
It would have been if modi name came in it.
@@mrblue3946 -- keep 😴
Lol china debt is 57trillion us dollar more than america debt at 45trillion us dollar, not even imf, world bank, adb, eu central bank combine can bail out china if that happened🤣🤣😂😂
China lend without any condition, only higher interest rate and collateral required. That helps in politicians in siphoning off the money. Clever ploy by Chinese to let the leaders sell their countries to China.
So much resemblance to Pawn brokers and people who lend to village farmers. They suck blood along with debt
China's interest much lower than western Paris club and much less condition than imf and world bank
@@babublue69 yes that is why they leased Hambanthota and Baluchistan for many years. Hopefully india also lease kerala to China.
BRI is a Weapon.
....make no mistake.
Lord Nest
You've uncovered the essential secret in the deal. Yet several million others should also discover it. Modi was shrewd enough to find it out. In fact his attention was to pick a bone of contention with PRC & this served as a tool. However in the 2017 first OBOR (Oh Bore) conference India chose to turn down (the only invitee country to do it) the invitation & turn down the US$ 81 billion loan offer as part of it (again, the only invitee country to do that & the highest amount offered for a country). It losened an important bolt form the OBOR structure or edifice that now stands shaky & might collapse even. This act hasn't been appreciated for its potential, by most. Modi who did that administered a reverse slap by taking a Japanese loan & help to build Mumbai-Ahemdabad express railway (partly under sea) that put paid the Ch. boast & gloating over its hyper-claims in regard to infarstructure engineering. India needs to maintain the stance as well as develop her own talent & capability in infarstructure engineering. India does it already & is about to show-case her prowess in building the tallest railway bridge (over a big river) in the world and also the highest railway track (& station) in the world. India can feel justifiably proud of it with her engineering practice, can show to the world what is 'Relaibility'. It is a pity that other smaller South Asian countries have succumbed to Ch. baits & allurements.
'Loan shark' is the word/phrase you are searching for.
Considering how corrupt many of the states are the political elites has probably filled their pockets. Leaving the debt to the countries to fix... It really is colonialism 2.0
@@FRIPPE_THE_GREAT
Well a simple question. Why don't Western countries give loans to developing countries on the same huge level as China, especially for large infrastructure projects. They could cut out China by offering lower interest rates especially to countries with weak credit ratings and an unstable environment. In return they could also secure future deliveries of raw materials. Why don't they do that....
If I have 5 Trillion dollars , who the fuck cares what world calls me 😂😂😂 lone shark or no lone shark😂
Haha....runs close. Thanks for watching Premjit and writing in. Take care -Shekhar
@@aosaeanor
Well if that actually is a concern for Western/developed countries are sincere, they could buy of/ re-finance these loans at lower interest rates which would reduce the burden of these developing and also curtail China's leverage. But sure then the Western/developed countries would have the risks of these big loans in there books. Bottom line is what commitment countries show in walking the TALK.
Gambino reference was perfect. Reminded me of the Pandora papers leak
It is the most enthusiastic builder around the world, and those who need loans for this get it from China at very favorable rates. Please check with African countries.
This is why I love sg sir's analysis really interesting, engaging and something that not all newspapers cover. Sadly I'm still just a student and can't afford the membership. Hope you keep this good journalism everytime.
Omp
Time for your pocket money going to SG
We don't like secular people.
Can't afford a membership? You might want to save elsewhere and invest here. This is value adding.
Lol china debt is 57trillion us dollar more than america debt at 45trillion us dollar, not even imf, world bank, adb, eu central bank combine can bail out china if that happened🤣🤣😂😂
And Indian people are made to believe that we will become a VISHWAGURU 😂😂
Hota h kabhi Kabhi... Actually bohot baar
Haha...tnx for watching Devesh. Stay tuned for more...keep well. -Shekhar
Very well articulated and easy to comprehend.
Awesome 🔥
7:10 Sovereign Debt Obligations
Part of Afrika's biggest problem is that too many of the so-called leader can't recognize that their mineral resources is not the key to development.
I very happy to watching you video that bring to us. You vocabulary is very fluent and Sharp I watch your videos to enhance my English vocabulary. Thank you SG to your efforts for real journalism.
Now I don't see a permanent seat for us on the Security Council coming anytime soon. 😔✊
Did you see us getting a permanent seat earlier ? 😂
We will never be a permanent member !
UN is a sham. Just a body with no arms, legs and a head.🤣
Okay Kalpesh, thanks for writing in your suggestion. I will try to take this up in the nearest possibility...stay tuned. -Shekhar
@@SV-wu2my they themselves shut the plants down. It was voluntary thing
It wont budge the Chinese economy at all. The power outage happened in first place cause too much demand for chinese products. Just search up any media bout how their exports increased historically months ago
Lol china debt is 57trillion us dollar more than america debt at 45trillion us dollar, not even imf, world bank, adb, eu central bank combine can bail out china if that happened🤣🤣😂😂
All this explanation comes down to 2 single words, The Great "Chinese Loan Sharking" Business. There I said it.
R. I. P. English & Maths
@@myvideos4789 Lol. Mirchi
If I have 5 Trillion dollars , who the fuck cares what world calls me 😂😂😂 lone shark or no lone shark😂
Nothing wrong to that. If you sit on top of a huge pile of money with nowhere to spend, lend out to other countries in exchange for their commodities.
@@kokovin6808 yeah like what East India companies of different countries did right? If you don't understand what's wrong with your statement then, you won't understand geopolitics or consequences of Chinese actions are.
A highly complex subject .Yet presented by Shekhar in such ‘an easy to understand’ way.
Hats off
Most of the loans are made at interest rate b/w 0% to 3% with repayment period ranging from 20 to 30 years. Hundreds have being forgiven and existing loans have being renegotiated well over 80 times.
Deborah Brautigam did a very good coverage of this in The Atlantic titled "The Chinese ‘Debt Trap’ Is a Myth
The narrative wrongfully portrays both Beijing and the developing countries it deals with."
Next ctc on crimes and police reforms. Please
Excellent analysis which even common people can understand. Kudos to you Sir...
China is not bad. It's smart. This is the definition of smartness.
Very well made videos. 👏 informative and entertaining. Compliments from Portugal 🇵🇹
SG..
Need to clutter Pandora papers specially Kiran Mazumder Shaw Sachin & Anil Ambani
Very nice simple explanation by SG.. 👌👍
Wow Sg ! man ...it was worth listening ...perhaps the best to understand geo politics and geo economics
Excellent elaboration, thanks shekhar.
Napoleon once said China is sleeping when she wakes up she will shake the world
Thank you SG sir
Novel Chinese Economics
Need to learn for secured future
Very well researched article. 🙏
A few questions, Sir:
1. Who funded this research by Aid data for 18 years? How much is the funding?
2. You mentioned Venezuela being sanctioned and high% of off balance sheet due to this? Would you explain the reason Venezuela being sanctioned? What sins they have do the world?
3. Given Venezuela is sanctioned, poor, what alternatives do they have?
4. Given China loan interest is 3-4 times compared to OECD, why countries want to take China loan?
Would be great to hear explanation behind it. Everything takes two to tango :)
Thanks
A story from 2016-17, China was interested to lend to urban local bodies/ municipal corporations in India just with a state government guarantee. Few Indian state governments were considering the proposal. However, thanks to strong institutions and processes in India; states did not proceed with such a guarantee without approval from central government. While China invested a lot of funds in getting those projects moving ahead, DEA, Govt. of India did not agree.
Thanks Anurav for watching and sharing this with all of us. Pls do keep watching and writing in. -Shekhar
BRI dwarfs the Marshall Plan.
@ 21:50 Guptaji let the cat out of the bag. “I don’t read serious books, I read only funny books”. Not to worry Guptaji, some of us who don’t take your rants seriously already knew this😀. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure that out! I remember you had recommended seeing a Netflix show about the affairs in Iraq with the ISIS suggesting that it’s a documentary while it was a work of fiction wah wah 🙏🏼🙏🏼. Yet, day in and day out you come out and give your “beautiful” assessment of things varied from cricket to geo strategic affairs. Really must admire you for it 👏👏👏
China also owns a lot of US debt.. a disturbing amount. Why isn't that in the last. That has been a concern for at least 7 yrs now
They're probably betting on USA to deliver the promised returns and it probably makes the biggest share of their lending portfolio ...... much like you would put less money in stocks and even lesser in crypto and a significant amount in safer debt instruments.
Beautifully explained what is known as “Sugar daddy Diplomacy “.
Thank God Modi Govt did not join BRI. You can imagine what would have happened , had any other Govt been in power. They give kick backs in private bank accounts. No BJP ministers name has come in Pandora papers so far.
Great video as always! :D
Now we know from where the previous FM of Kerala got the KIIFB idea. Credit rating of Govt is bad, so KIIFB takes loan from various sources and the Govt is guarantor
Did I miss Malaysia!?? Im surprised Malaysia not in the list..what a sigh of Relieved!! ☺️
I love your journalism sir. Though I disagree on many points, but you present them beautifully.
Thanks!
Thank you for your support!
Thanks for book suggestion sir ji
Too interesting and frightening.
Good explanation 👍
Simply , A Super Economic Narrative.
Indeed! Thanks Vasudevan for watching and writing in. Pls stay tuned for more and keep supporting the channel. -Shekhar
Really impressive sir.... 👍👍👍
Very nice
China's motto should be "Hum dubege aur saath main puri duniya ko le dubege"🤣
Shekhar seems to be a simple God fearing guy!! If Chinese are smart, what makes Shekhar think that these so called poor countries like Pakistan or Laos are not smarter? Sovereign obligations can always be repudiated in future. China can do whatever it wants and nothing will happen. After a few years, we will this spectacle in Pakistan!! Will Chinese take over CPEC road and run it? Will they run the power plants build by them in Pakistan? Who will mine say copper and ship it out of any country?
In due course, a country defaulting to China will have its rating upgraded by one notch!!!
So long as everything is going fine, it looks fine. So let us not bother too much; these loans will be finally written off or reworked or simply turned into grants!!
WHO CARREEEE
CHINA MONEY STRONGER AND STRONGER
USA MONEY WEAKER AND WEAKER
It is true that being Indian it is normal to bash China. But no one talks about USD 28 Trillion debt of US. It is not if but when US Dollar collapses is the question.
"137" countries with $323 debt. Pak stan alone with $62 billion debt 😂😂
wait, didn't he say that Pakistan somewhere has around 8% of its GDP as a debt owed to Chinese, which means $300 billion(pak GDP) * 8% ~ $24-25 billion ? Or am I missing something
You can laugh all you want. But Pakistan will have much better infrastructure at the end. And it will be the major hub that connects China, Central Asia and Middle East.
@@jkuang Yes, great for Pakistan. Pakistan will become an economic superpower with all that infrastructure.
The Stan of all Loans ;)
@@jkuang and Indians will have one more item to be jealous about.
Excellent ctc, very clear
I enjoyed P.J.O Rourkes books to 👍
Excellent conclusion
Great dissertation 👍🏼❤
Extremely informative.
So, China is running a parallel shadow economy and the collateral is a basket of most sought after commodities.
And even if that fails to work out they can always assume the ownership of the asset as they have done now in Sri Lanka.
Do they actually want these countries to fail to repay, since they are charging them so high interest? Is it the resources and assets which they are actually after? Is this a strategic move which is looking decades into the future?
Food for thought and Pretty good idea for next James Bond or Jack Ryan Movie. 🍿
China will have to pay very high price for this .if any govt change in Africa it will refuse to pay true to their character.
@@sulemancharania7027 Then the Chinese will come with happy faces and take mountains and Plateaus to dig it for uranium, silicon and Copper until whenever they like with the politicians realizing the reverse uno very late !
@Gagan Sagar LOOL why isn't it if you owe them 10-13%...
You are in no position to even negotiate...
Remember Sri lanka!!
Haha does make for a good movie script....keep watching for more to come. Tnx for being there. -Shekhar
Lol china debt is 57trillion us dollar more than america debt at 45trillion us dollar, not even imf, world bank, adb, eu central bank combine can bail out china if that happened🤣🤣😂😂
Japanese lend us at 0.1% but because they dont have inflation so its still good deal for them.
Well a simple question. Why don't Western countries give loans to developing countries on the same huge level as China, especially for large infrastructure projects. They could cut out China by offering lower interest rates especially to countries with weak credit ratings and an unstable environment. In return they could also secure future deliveries of raw materials. Why don't they do that....
China is the "Sukhi Lala" of international market... LOL!
😝😝
10:34 - New DP For Guptaji
what a person shekhar i have to say
Dhoom me rajnigandha kadmo me duniya
please also discuss how much India lends vis-a-vis China to developing countries
Correction: OECD was founded in 1961, not 1948.
Mast.. superbly explained.... 👏👏
They've been buying our neighbours and encircling us for quite some time. Pakistan is their maid, Sri Lanka is also on it's way to become one. Bangladesh will be the third.
Hopefully, Real estate and demographic bubble will finally topple the never-toppling economy.
If as a borrower I am paying higher interest rate with respect to my income, then I am doing business for my lender 😆
Most of the loans are made at interest rate b/w 0% to 3% with repayment period ranging from 20 to 30 years. Hundreds have being forgiven and existing loans have being renegotiated well over 80 times.
Deborah Brautigam did a very good coverage of this in The Atlantic titled "The Chinese ‘Debt Trap’ Is a Myth
The narrative wrongfully portrays both Beijing and the developing countries it deals with."
You have Missed A Big Point ie Not only Loan at [ 1) High Sovereign Rate & 2) Future Colateral ) BUT Export of Material ( Railway Line , Cement etc ) & Even Man Power .
Nice explanation
Hey Print In description you have written 385 million please correct it to 385 BIllion.
Maldives in our region is at 40% ... This is shockingly worrying.
Very true, indeed the situation raises some flags....tnx for watching and writing in. -Shekhar
Great opportunity for india to shine from here, the reason why FIIs are continuously investing here ✌️
Since when The Print has diverted it's attention from Narendra Modi to China?
Average World Bank interest rate is 3.15%.
So whats the problem? No one is putting a gun to these countries to take on loans. And a country can’t grow their GDP without an influx of cash to improve their economies.
What's status of Indian corporate borrowing money from China currently
Tnx
Thanks , good video 👍
Shared with friends 👍
Hi Rheema, glad to note you are an avid follower of #CutTheClutter. Do keep tuning in.
So why Shekhar Gupta is not doing a cut the clutter episode on Pandora Papers. Is it because Kiran Mazumdar Shaw's husband name also came up in the investigation and she is one the investor.
I don't trust al Jazeera
What shekhar is not telling Indians is that the western nations do the EXACT same thing without making the news. Check India’s debts to all nations its touching 500 billion dollars!
That is less than Indian foreign reserves. Nope, no other country does that.
chinese loans r basically like unauthorised private loans taken from a greedy money lender
Don’t forget the $1Billion personal guarantee given to Chinese state-owned ICBC by our very own Anil Dhirajlal Ambani 👏🏽
@sonu singh ji of course
It is like balance sheet of NDTV😀😀😀
Chinese seem to be well ahead in shrewdness than Brits were two centuries back.
I think SG sir has left massive 25 years BRI SINO IRANIAN 400 BILLION US$ much greater than pak Chinese investment
I don't understand your surprise the USA does that same thing since the WW2 and Marshal Plan and also when the dollar fell from being a Fiat currency. And don't has its value in gold. You say that because you hate China. Now do your subscribers a favor and tell the truth please! Greetings from PORTUGAL
Good one. Shekhar ji, can we have a CTC on Indian debt, aren't we doing a big disservice by borrowing (issuing bonds) from the future and, from a moral point of view, aren't the newborns, kids and next generation saddled with debt which is humungous
It is my belief that debt has to be measured as a ratio of government tax collection (and putting it as % of GDP by the e
Economists itself is deliberate and misleading). Again if a country can borrow endlessly why cannot any individual be allowed to do so. Huge questions in my mind (and many others of the next gen)
CTC please
Can you please do analysis on whether the boycott India initiative ( By Turkey, Pak and Qatar) is worth anything or can it cause harm to India ?
Or whether this is a case of "thota chana baaje ghaana" ?
@P Pierre Lol....you've clearly been living under a rock then
@P Pierre I am not sure. That is why requesting more information about it. I hope this is case of empty vessels making louder noise.
AidData research concluded the BRI was "not a grand scheme to build alliances", as is sometimes portrayed by Beijing, but rather China "hunting for the most profitable project.
LOL What is new in that, everyone is stating the obvious for such a long time now.
That is too sweet use of language. What it is hunting is the chance to buy the country with resources. It's British Imperialism 2.0 without the East India Company!
@@shahuni No. BRI was and is a bad business scheme. It is a hugely failed project. Basically, no poor country has any intention of repaying the loans. As a result 10 of the 12 largest Chinese banks that loaned the overseas money are in deep trouble. Bottom line: China is not going to get her loan money back.
High interest rates, unnecessary roads & developments, economically not viable projects that will not be profitable even in a Century - all doomed BRI. Those politicians who first approved it (examples Pakistan & Lanka) took big bribes and looted & embezzled much of the loan money. Then they left power. New sets of politicians who came to power are now left with repayment of all the loans but no sweetener bribe - and they are not going to pay the loans back. They all are crying for 'debt forgiveness'.
@@nakshatraroy7442 But as SG said, China knows that the counties will not be able to pay back these loans and then they know to extract value out of this situation. They either take over strategic resources or just declare themselves the owners of the place. Most African countries are going to become colonies of China and it seems unfortunately no one can stop them.
@@shahuni No. Local politics in those poor countries will never ever allow that. All China could get is some of their votes at UN or some cheap commodities or may be access to some of their markets like 5G. Nothing more than that and certainly not worth a Trillion. Taking over a country is so complicated that it is beyond the capacity of any country in today's world.
Where is India? Economically on debit situation of 115 lakh crore
Why do you drag Russia into this ? Russian finances are in decent shape. Foreign exchange reserves are in excess of $600 billon . Chinese lent some money to Russian oil companies back in 2014 as Western banks were forbidden to finance Russian oil/gas industry by US govt. The loan went to exploring new oil/gas fields and building pipeline infrastructure. Future oil/gas supplies are collateral. It is a win-win.
Does Maldives show 40% in the AIDDATA report?
China has all plans to become kanhaiya Lal... the infamous sahukar of old Bollywood movies. 😄
An excellent overview. Initially, the US just watched China buying up rights to natural resources and the US could not do anything about it. Then the US came upon a strategy. They started doing “ungli” that resulted in countries either reneging their commitment to paying back the debt or obstructing the projects causing delays. Since these are “off book” loans, a country can just default and it won’t hurt their “credit” rating since it is already in the mud. Unlike a thug that can come after you, China has limited options. They can get a lease like they got from Sri Lanka and “own” a port that is more or less idle or make threats that amount to very little. Russia surrendering to China on this matter is interesting. It must hurt their pride a lot. They have just abdicated their role of being a consequential international player.
Well a simple question. Why don't Western countries give loans to developing countries on the same huge level as China, especially for large infrastructure projects. They could cut out China by offering lower interest rates especially to countries with weak credit ratings and an unstable environment. In return they could also secure future deliveries of raw materials. Why don't they do that....
@@user-rh5jp2sh4s Western countries have established World Bank and other financial institutions to loan money to countries based on the institutions criteria and guidelines. Unlike China these financial institutions and the Developed Countries are bound by their guidelines. China is engaging in predatory lending to countries that are a credit risk because it makes up its own criteria. And if the borrower defaults they go about extracting their “pound of flesh”. Western countries give aid. Both China’s loans and Western countries aid come with strings attached in that the beneficiary has to buy goods and services from whom they get their money from. Even so, there are exceptions. For instance the US spent over a Trillion Dollars on Afghanistan and got nothing in return.
@@rshas3
Well sorry that wasn't the question. You describe practices of China etc.. As to adherence to guidelines that might so, but the critical questions is what thresholds of risk, interest rates and other binding terms are laid out those Guidelines. These are decisions which are decided by the financiers of these institutions. So again..
Why don't Western/developed countries give loans to developing countries on the same huge scale as China, especially for large infrastructure projects. They could cut out China by offering lower interest rates, soften other terms. Especially to countries with weak credit ratings and an unstable environment. In return they could also secure future deliveries of raw materials. Why don't they do that....
@@user-rh5jp2sh4s Sorry, I have no answer for the why. As you noted governments of Western Countries don’t get involved directly in loans to other countries or get involved in projects in other countries. Unlike China, Russia and Bharat.
China is outperforming all superpowers by far by their aggressive policies without any hint of any backfiring. How do they do it?
Capitalism
Yes its greedy capitalism to core. US fell down due to its wars and british empire fell because of its incompetency unlike ww2 germany.
Centuries ago bussiness was done with resources. Same thing china is doing
Sir pls do a video on coal crisis global / China and then if any links to the Indian crisis
Is there data on which countries where protests have broken out are mapped out?
Simple stuff but too much elongation makes it boring....
Most of the BRI loans are at interest rate between 0% and 3%, however, money doesn't cross hands. It goes directly from Chinese banks to Chinese construction companies.
Usually terms of repayment ranges from 20 to 30 years with generous grace period before first repayment has to be made.
On top of that, for African countries, China has forgiven hundreds of loans and also, renegotiated terms over 80 times.
Deborah Brautigam did a very good article covering this in The Atlantic early this year titled "The Chinese ‘Debt Trap’ Is a Myth
The narrative wrongfully portrays both Beijing and the developing countries it deals with."
Even if countries were to default on BRI loans, money is owed to Chinese banks, funded by Chinese savings. Which means it can be rolled over indefinitely into future unlike the case with Lehman Brothers were owed globally, ranging from Japan to Hong Kong to Europe.
Am i the only one who got the gambino family ref. Without the explanation?😅