"Extremely Profitable" Hoffman Retracement Trading Strategy TESTED 500,000+ TIMES
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- Опубликовано: 12 окт 2022
- I fully backtest this strategy presented by Trade Pro in February 2022, see the link to source video below. If you are thinking about using this strategy, you really really need to see these results. The strategy uses "Hoffman Retracement Candles" basically the strategy looks to identify a pullback in a strong trend for scalping or swing trading depending on your timeframe.
Source Video:
• This Award Winning Tra...
You have definitely gained a new sub just because you test truthfully and you test more than 100 trades
Love your content! Thanks for sharing
Thanks!
I just wanted to add that this is NOT Rob Hoffman’s strategy. Instead this is a review of a RUclips interpretation of his strategy. In that video the presenter defaults to a 1 : 1.5 Risk Reward Ratio where Rob uses a 4 stage method of taking profits. Next Rob also uses multiple timeframes and additional indicators. Rob has won many international trading competitions and to dismiss this RUclips video interpretation of his actual strategy is ridiculous and I think it might bring disrepute to your channel. I would therefore suggest you rename the video that I tested a RUclips version of the Hoffman retracement strategy for clarity.
International Trading Championship - 1st Place (1997): Rob Hoffman
US Investing Championship - 1st Place (1999): In 1999, Rob Hoffman
World Cup Championship of Futures Trading - 1st Place (2008): Rob Hoffman
TraderPlanet Star Awards - Best Trading Course (2014, 2015, 2016): Rob Hoffman
25-time domestic and international trading champion
Clearly your backtesting skills don’t reflect the real world results of this man. BY THE WAY I don’t know the man and have no association with him but I know this information is not correctly associated to him.
What are some good resources for learning the strategy properly?
Well done. I have watched many of the Hoffman Strategy tests. This is the only one that alters the 45 degree slope. Thus making it infinitely more workable. Subcribed. Cheers
New sub!! Way more thorough than any other backtesting channel out there. AND the massive number of trades you put these "profitable systems" through
thank you bro, very helpful
Thank you for this interesting content
Keep going bro. Love your video.
Appreciate it!
wow great test here!
I've seen several of these hoffman videos and it seems no one actually watches _his_ video. I don't know who started the single two ema indiciator, but that isn't all he uses and he also has a pretty aggressive trailing stop strategy that no one takes into account. All the videos also say "take the red for long, green for short" but if you listen to him, he sometimes uses either one for either direction, and the entry rule is slightly different depending on risk tolerance. Some videos put the initial SL at one of the two emas and some use the bottom of the candle (which I believe is correct).
I don't think 1:1.5 RR is a solid rule either if I recall, he just talks about "the target" and in other cases he refers to S&R levels and that sort of thing, so I think the 1.5 was something one tester picked out of thin air. Another uses 1:2.
Thank you ! I was wondering when someone would finally comment on this! Other channels have tested this and they all omit some of Rob's rules. It's like people can't do any research or actually listen to the original author they just copy and paste.
Good to know!!
Really like these styles of videos, with a good amoutn of backtests, instead of the casual 100 a lot of the youtubers do.
Would love to see a video, where you show a guide on how to do the backtests and such.
Thanks! Actually I'm planning just that, as several have requested
Nice video bro! I do agree with a lot of the comments though. I have watched Rob’s original vid on his strategy, actually have it saved. Although I like Trade Pro, his version of it eliminates key elements that make it VERY successful and profitable. Leaving out his trailing stop method completely changes it overall. It allows the trade room to breathe, but helps you to eliminate senseless losses. He even says he doesn’t understand having a trade almost hit TP only to turn and come all the way down and get stopped out. Thus his trailing stop. I’ve backtested it as well doing this. It takes longer because you can’t automate it really. But its wins at about 80% on a 30M, and what losses there are are very minimal. He said you can use a fixed TP method, such as in the vid, or like a did, use areas of value or levels.
As far as the MAs, I use a 9 and 15EMAs just to get an idea of trend and possible reversals.
Love how you break things down though because it helps to look at things on a deeper level and see if something is really worth it. Keep up the good work!
thank god i found your channel
awesome work ! Make a video with a good scalping strategy for futures like the NQ and ES. thanks
I saw the same video, and had the same conclusion you did. So funny running across this with someone else.
I believe there is a trading view indicator to calculate the slope of the bar (Takes into account the geometry) MZ Sama or search for "slope", there are 2 or 3 other of these strategy that seem to depend on the slope of the moving average, to me some sort of ADX is probably a good way to view that though.
As a follow on to this one, it would seem given the random pick results you could actually increase the win by using those retracement candles, but instead of triggering on the break of that candle, take the opening of the next candle after the retracement candle. then target the highs. Theory would be you're taking a mini retracement so you're buying at a discount in an uptrend.
This methodology needs to filter out entering trades when the instrument is recently overextended, and focuses more on those high velocity bars (bigger bars than average) that appear out of nowhere on much larger than recent average volume. I'd also loosen that stop-loss to under the high velocity bar before the Hoffman bar, and then raise it up as support starts appearing.
You are showing indicators and entry rules in code snapshot, can you please show the take profit and stop loss code conditions as well?
I was curious when you defined the trading strategy as my inner voice was already sending warning signals - well, it seems that it got it right and the result is really "extreme" just on the other side of the bar. It's not easy to find good trading systems and even harder those that work in practice. The search for the Holy Grail lives on forever when it comes to trading systems.
Great work 👍, I keep saying that trading and investing is very profitable and safe with the right help and guidance
That's why I trade with Theresa she's the best
Yes, I have recovered All my losses and made more profits from her
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The problem is you're using 15 min time frame, where you needed to use the 5 min time frame to trade on, with 20 ema from the 15 min, and the 80 period from the 15
I'm starting to think after 12 months of trying different systems that there's no way of making a profit from trading other than to buy stock and sit and hold and hope the value of stock goes up after years of holding. I enjoy your channel and the content you make mate.
Good video. I do backtesting with python as well. You need to include commissions. They have the most significant impact on the results.
How much commission would you use? What about slippage?
Have you considered using the same conditions except trading opposite to the signals suggestions?
You should try 10 in 1 indicator…you can use 10 moving averages of any type
Any chance to send you a video for backtesting?
I would love to see the strategy inverted since it's such a highly consistent loss.
I’m really loving your videos. Quick question and I can see a couple of other people have already asked this, what happens if you switch long and short (and reverse the take profit/stop loss)? Is the outcome not the opposite and amazingly good rather than woeful
😂 That was my first thought too
My opinion is that the Ema spread code does not replicate the 45 deg angle. Isn't there some trend line angle code?
Where do you get the scripts from the indicators from tradingview. Do you write them yourself or is a way to see the scripts of the indicators. I want to backtest some strategies myself. Inspired by these videos :)
Great question! For some common indicators like EMA or RSI and such I use a library for python/pandas here: github.com/peerchemist/finta , and for others I code them myself.... i don't code in tradingview's pine language, but I can understand the code well enough to look at the code translate it into python
Can you backtest a strategy that is not on RUclips? I am looking to refine something that I am working on
Can you backtest a strategy with true 50%+ winrate?
the trading channel we need but don't deserve
please continue good sir
would be interesting to see if the winner from the strategy (or any other strategy) is using trailing stop loss for example trailing the wins to that 20 EMA
Thanks! I agree with you that I suspect as a general rule that trend following strategies that can ride a trend all the way rather than using a fixed profit target will be superior. I’m fact I’m working on a strategy now like that which I hope to have out next week
@@seriousbacktester I look forward to it
Backtesting Excellence.
You earned this like and sub partner.
Thank you my friend!
Statistically significant loss in all timetframe, does it mean when we reverse long and short, it will become statistically significant profitable in all timeframe?
So what is Rob Hoffman doing right? He won a trading contest with it.
If it loses consistently, then why not flip the strategy? In that case it will win consistently!?
I know right! I actually ran those tests and i should have included them in the video but i thought it was getting too long. Unfortunately the testing was also not profitable... i think the reason is, in the end, the stop loss is so tight that for any entry point, whether long or short, normal price action noise will just trigger the stop way too often
@@seriousbacktester Yeah. The stop is too tight for this strategy. How about you backtest MACD strategy by Trading Rush channel(The first video on their channel)? Would love to watch that. Thanks. 🙂
So what about invert the signal to the oppositte? I mean it's constantly going bad right? Take the other way and see!
I would take that and flip it so the sell signals resulted in buying and vice-versa.
So if we use opposite this str w'll win 95 of time?
Where can i this code which you write to test this strategy
Wasn't it the very next candle had to break the high/low, not any candle?
what would happen if you long instead of short? (trading against the strategy) if the strat is s reliable lossing strategy would be crazy trade against it? I always had that doubt
By the way I found this channel today and I would like to congratulate you because you are doing something incredible sharing this type of content, keep going!
Thanks that means a lot! You and I think alike; When I saw the initial results I said, well lets just switch switch the long and short conditions, as logically that makes sense. The video was getting too long so I didn't include that, but I did run those tests and alas it didn't result in a profitable strategy
@@seriousbacktester well it can't be that easy hehe, I would like to recommend you to check an strategy with 4 period RSI, ADX and 200 period EMA (something like that), I got outstanding results untill I added slippage and commissions, I'm sure it worths to refine because I didn't try to add it any risk management system and it stills a little profitable some stocks, cryptos and Forex pairs in 30m charts
@@baya2399 can you talk more about your strategy and the types of risk management systems that you have applied?
with some strategies, i can actually turn it from non-profitable to hugely profitable with a little trick
you cant reverse the strategy because it's 1 to 1:1.5 risk reward
if it was 1:1 then what you said is true and can be revered, but that would also depend on the stoploss placement
because the price difference from the same entry to stoploss could be a lot different for long and short if you place your stoploss according to ATR or price swings
@@donyxd3365 I was just entering and exiting the trades using the RSI with 4 periods, I never tried to use ATR, a fixed pip size Orr things like that, I was 4 o 5 months in algo trading and that was my last attempt, recently I was very busy but now that I had time again I would give it another try
Hi bro! Is there any video where you explain your validation method in detail?
Great question! Not yet but several have asked so I am in planning stages…for those to be high yield I’m recommending familiarity with python programming language and pandas data manipulation tool, which are the main tools I use
What if you did the opposite of that strategy? :)
Great video! Where did you get all the data from?
I use Td ameritrade’s api and I use yfinamce library which downloads from yahoo finance. Every week or two I update all the price data
Love the huge sample size. I have no skin in the game, but ignoring the 45 degree rule seems like a HUGE mistake. To me, it's like finding out the MLB baseball players have 3rd strike fastballs more common than any other pitch. So I think I can throw my 60 mph "fastball" to a MLB player and strike them out. Ignoring the speed of the pitch is a huge mistake, just like ignoring the 45 degree angle.
If the 20 Fast EMA is above the 20 Slow EMA in a consolidation period, but moving slightly upwards, won't the code still execute the trade? If the market is in trending market, that means 70% of these results could be wrong. I understand why this won't work for a bot, but does that mean it's a bad strategy? IDK. Just curious. I appreciate all the work you put into this.
Great comments! for clarity i have no objection to the 45 degree criterium, and I would be happy to test it, but my point is the same price action would be >45 degrees on one person's computer screen and
@@seriousbacktester Great timing, I'm currently finishing up watching all vids on your channel and love it!! Great job. IDK if this would work for a bot, but you can lock the ratio of the screen and do 45 degrees based on the ratio. Clearly the issue is the subjectiveness of the ratio, but at least it's a starting point to eliminate consolidating markets.
I also love that you're testing against random now. I trade Forex, but often wonder how much of all this is just BS. Love your vids, I'm subd
@@aznomads1579 I love this comment and discussion. I have been following Rob and this strategy for a while. Talking about an angle won't work just like Serious Backtester says. I agree with that point. In the hours of Rob Hoffman I have watched, he as also said it's a percentage. Is the high and low of the following candle 45% higher or lower for 20 candles? That' is how you can do it. But when I tried it, I found so many tickers that were out of steam at that time, so it's a losing trade. Rob did win those contest, but he used Apple. I think you have to put this with additional understanding of certain tickers you're trading. Also, I dove very deeply into Rob Hoffman. He lost a bunch of money in one week from violating his own rules. Do some searching to find it. There are a lot of people not happy with him. Yet, I still think this could be a strategy if you look at what he actually DID to win the competitions, not what he SAYS and not what he's selling now. Just my 2 cents.
Try cpr strategy backtesting written in the book the secret of pivot boss by Frank ochao
are you going to sell your backtesting software or how can we be able to use it for ourselves it would be a huge help!
I'm not the guy, but it looks like he's using a Python "notebook" and coding in Python directly.
The Jupyter Notebook is a good option
The entry requirement looks wrong. I trade a similar strategy and you wouldn't be looking to long the green arrows. It's the red arrows in the up trend and green arrows in the downtrend that will work better. That's what my strategy says. So that first entry would have been the next red arrow candle close to the ema.
Not going to blindly stick up for Hoffman but there's a whole lot more that he explains in his than what you shared here. Can't take half of his method and back test it and say the whole thing doesn't work.
SO bad you could build a contrarian system around this one?
If a strategy consistently loses as you say, then you can simply reverse the long and short orders and make it reliably win. How about you try that?
So we just need to counter trade it? Hha
I know right? I really should do a follow up video because I had that thought exactly and I actually did the backtesting on that. Unfortunately, it was also not profitable. What’s happening is the stop loss is so tight that it almost always gets triggered no matter what direction you’re trading.
I would challenge this. If you look at Hoffman's credentials he's won some of the most trading awards of any trader using this strategy. Also, I think there can be inaccuracy in the coding and it does not account for higher time frame context as Hoffman talks about. Just an idea.
you should only test these strategies during ideal market trading hours. Im sure your results would look alot different.
Have you tried to reverse the logic? Go long when this wonderful strategy tells you to short?
Interesting to see your test confirm what I had with an automated bot forward testing (which takes *ages* of course, compared to your great brute force approach). So many of these strategies promise the moon but turn out to be just clickbait. 100 tests is of near-to-damnit zero statistical value.
I also code in python all strategies I learn in from videos and there is nothing that can work for a long time or different markets.
Hoffman uses an overlay set. And there are like 7 total lines. And they determine the angle. He did not explain this properly at all. He didn't even use the minute time frame either.
Great testing but video title is a click bait. NOT good!
There is no Holy Grail trading method.
Yet many are greed-driven and searching for the secret magic strategy for instant easy money without the requisite intelligence, knowledge, experience and dedication. It makes for great entertainment, though, and the winners require those losers in this zero-sum game!
I see in the comments that the opposite trades didn't end up with a profitable strategy
looks like unknowingly I was using this strategy for years. :(
just flip the buys into sells and sells into buys then
Is there any working one?
It seams no. :(
Hang wtih me... i'm working on a video for my own strategy now; i think i'll have it out the week after next and its finally some good news
@@seriousbacktester Well, let's see it.
Fact of the matter is some of the Tubers making ridiculous claims to losing strategies. They just post garbage and its largely clickbait. This is one of the best trading channels on the Tube.
Shouldn’t we trade the exact opposite of this strategy? Wouldn’t that be a winner!??!
I watch several RUclips videos on how to trade in the stock market but haven't made any head start because they are either talking some gibberish or sharing their story of how they made it and I do not want to make mistakes by taking risks in my own hands
I think the issue is you used too many different stocks. Pick like only 10 or such and then take each trade it signals on those pairs. Just picking random pairs may make it pick a bad trade on one pair, then it picks another pair and picks a bad one again so you miss the good ones sort of. If I undrstood how you did the testing.
Good point. It should be fairly doable to select the best performing Symbol and then do the random historgram using only this symbol. In other words, one slice horizontal (different symbols) and one slice vertical (one symbol)
So reverse it 😂
I agree!!!😂 hhahahhahah
Perfect just trade opposite lol
You really just put two random ema’s and the retracement arrows and called that the hoffman strategy 😂
Well, the way you did the strategy is incorrect.
Thats not the strategy at all. you can look up the correct strategy on youtube.
how can you do a backtest on a strategy that you haven't studied at all and you don't understand it, and then you post a video that it's not profitable? you're funny!
Bottom line, this video is completely useless. Well, it is also great to know what NOT to do.
Why not make a video about a million other strategies that do not work as well? See the conundrum?
Otherwise great work..
Just reverse the strategy and its a winner
I just happened to backtest this and it kicks ass i sunno wha you did wrong but his strategy works fine even better if you take the first opposing retracement bar from the direction you want to enter i used the rob hoffman overlay and his retracement bars your whole test is just goofy. also works with a regular 20 period ema with a slight amount of non retard trading