I'm really glad you made a video on TPL! I'm a huge fan of this company and started a small position last year. It seems a lot of its income is reliant on the price and production of oil in the Permian Basin. While that can mean volatility in the short-term, viewed from the lens of decades, the price of oil goes up and the Permian Basin isn't drying up anytime soon. Also, Occidental is a major player in the area where TPL's land is located, and Buffett's been an eager buyer of OXY in the last few years. There's a lot to like here! My primary concern is the recent lawsuit where Murray Stahl tried to block the stock-split, and ultimately failed. If the member of the board who is buying shares daily disagrees with a decision made by the company, I'm led to think the rationale behind the stock-split may not be in the shareholders' best interest. Nevertheless, TPL looks like a company that can be run by an idiot and still grow. Ultimately, I'm waiting for a margin of safety to appear before I add to my position.
Murray Stahl said he gets along with the board members on many issues just a few minor disagreements. In the end he was fine with the stock split, I don't think agrees with issuing more shares unless there good reason to do it. If I heard him correctly on his quarterly meetings he personally has never sold a share of TPL and has been purchasing it maybe 40 years. Its his largest holding and said that you concentrate investing in your biggest winners and said most people forgot that strategy of investing and get too diversified on lower performing stocks. Hope I summarized his view correctly from listening to the meetings.
@Baldinvestor like your shows and investment advice been learning from it. TPL is my largest holding and purchased it last year after listening to Murray Stahl and Horizon Kinetics talk about it all the time. One metric I used at the time incorrectly was 22 x FCF to value TPL and bought it around $1295/3= $431.67 so no too bad but incorrect way to value it. Right now I'm trying to use EV/EBITDA to figure out when a stock is cheap or expensive. When I bought TPL last year it was around 17, average seems to vary around 23-28. I would want to buy under 20. Be interested to hear if you think this is one good metric to evaluate cheap or expensive stocks. S&P 500 think the average is around EV/EBITDA around 16. From what I can see is you need to check the history of each stock over time to see whats normal or not.
I personally don't use (or use very seldom) any sort of Comparable Company Analysis, so unfortunately I won't be of great help here. However, that doesn't mean it is a bad way of finding the right companies to invest in. I just feel that predicting future growth through Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is closer to my way of thinking about companies and fits my character better.
@@BaldInvestor appreciate the response and I'm trying a variety of tools to see what works best for me as I learn. Trying to focus on high compounding stocks that you hold for a long time. Tired of trying to always find the next undervalued instead of evaluating and finding with lots of room for growth and great run company. Keep up the good work.
but i still don't understand: is it a REIT or an Oil company (because it's in the oil sector on most analyzing sites)?! and if it's only lending, why is it set in the Oil sector? do they also drill or explore those lands underneath - or to they only receive royalties? in which case is more a REIT than an OIl company...
TPL is neither a REIT nor a traditional oil company. So while it is classified in the oil and gas sector due to its significant oil and gas royalty interests, it is not an operating oil company engaged in exploration or production. Its primary business model is managing its massive land and mineral rights holdings.
Thank you for the video! Did you ever think of adding P/E and Forward P/E as part of the analysis in your videos? And also - what are the analysts' estimates of future earnings on the company?
Hi, I did use p/e ratio at the beginning of the channel, and made some calculations with it. Maybe one day I will come back to it. Considering TPL on Yahoo Finance there is only one analyst covering the stock.
The data I used in this case comes from Simply Wall Street. If you have other reliable sources that point otherwise I would be very interested to take a look at them.
@@BaldInvestor Tikr shows Horizon Kinetics 16.43% as of 5/14/24 and Simply Wallstreet shows Horizon Kinetics owns 4.72% as 5/9/24. Yahoo Finance says 16.43% as of 3/9/24. Interesting about Simply WallStreet it seems like its off.
I'm really glad you made a video on TPL!
I'm a huge fan of this company and started a small position last year. It seems a lot of its income is reliant on the price and production of oil in the Permian Basin. While that can mean volatility in the short-term, viewed from the lens of decades, the price of oil goes up and the Permian Basin isn't drying up anytime soon. Also, Occidental is a major player in the area where TPL's land is located, and Buffett's been an eager buyer of OXY in the last few years. There's a lot to like here!
My primary concern is the recent lawsuit where Murray Stahl tried to block the stock-split, and ultimately failed. If the member of the board who is buying shares daily disagrees with a decision made by the company, I'm led to think the rationale behind the stock-split may not be in the shareholders' best interest. Nevertheless, TPL looks like a company that can be run by an idiot and still grow. Ultimately, I'm waiting for a margin of safety to appear before I add to my position.
Thank you very much for sharing that. And good luck 🤞
Murray Stahl said he gets along with the board members on many issues just a few minor disagreements. In the end he was fine with the stock split, I don't think agrees with issuing more shares unless there good reason to do it. If I heard him correctly on his quarterly meetings he personally has never sold a share of TPL and has been purchasing it maybe 40 years. Its his largest holding and said that you concentrate investing in your biggest winners and said most people forgot that strategy of investing and get too diversified on lower performing stocks. Hope I summarized his view correctly from listening to the meetings.
@Baldinvestor like your shows and investment advice been learning from it. TPL is my largest holding and purchased it last year after listening to Murray Stahl and Horizon Kinetics talk about it all the time. One metric I used at the time incorrectly was 22 x FCF to value TPL and bought it around $1295/3= $431.67 so no too bad but incorrect way to value it. Right now I'm trying to use EV/EBITDA to figure out when a stock is cheap or expensive. When I bought TPL last year it was around 17, average seems to vary around 23-28. I would want to buy under 20. Be interested to hear if you think this is one good metric to evaluate cheap or expensive stocks. S&P 500 think the average is around EV/EBITDA around 16. From what I can see is you need to check the history of each stock over time to see whats normal or not.
I personally don't use (or use very seldom) any sort of Comparable Company Analysis, so unfortunately I won't be of great help here. However, that doesn't mean it is a bad way of finding the right companies to invest in. I just feel that predicting future growth through Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is closer to my way of thinking about companies and fits my character better.
@@BaldInvestor appreciate the response and I'm trying a variety of tools to see what works best for me as I learn. Trying to focus on high compounding stocks that you hold for a long time. Tired of trying to always find the next undervalued instead of evaluating and finding with lots of room for growth and great run company. Keep up the good work.
In Seeking Alpha, I like to see companies with a FCF yield (TTM) above 5%...
... with the FCF yield (FY1) greater than the TTM one 😊
So happy that you made this video about TPL after a good time since the first video! Where did you buy the TPL stock certificate that is in your wall?
I found the graphic on the internet, and made a print copy on some nice paper. Thank you for watching 🙏
but i still don't understand: is it a REIT or an Oil company (because it's in the oil sector on most analyzing sites)?!
and if it's only lending, why is it set in the Oil sector? do they also drill or explore those lands underneath - or to they only receive royalties? in which case is more a REIT than an OIl company...
TPL is neither a REIT nor a traditional oil company. So while it is classified in the oil and gas sector due to its significant oil and gas royalty interests, it is not an operating oil company engaged in exploration or production. Its primary business model is managing its massive land and mineral rights holdings.
Wow! TPL becomes more and more popular stock. Probably I need to buy a few more shares. Good look!
in 2019 their share count diluted tripled.
TPL was finally added to S&P 500 yesterday and went up 25 percent in a single day yesterday!
Thank you for the video! Did you ever think of adding P/E and Forward P/E as part of the analysis in your videos? And also - what are the analysts' estimates of future earnings on the company?
Hi, I did use p/e ratio at the beginning of the channel, and made some calculations with it. Maybe one day I will come back to it. Considering TPL on Yahoo Finance there is only one analyst covering the stock.
Very useful video. Thank you!
Glad it was helpful. Thank you.
You are incorrect non Horizon Kinetics ownership. Very incorrect.
Looks like they own over 16% of outstanding shares.
The data I used in this case comes from Simply Wall Street. If you have other reliable sources that point otherwise I would be very interested to take a look at them.
@@BaldInvestor Tikr shows Horizon Kinetics 16.43% as of 5/14/24 and Simply Wallstreet shows Horizon Kinetics owns 4.72% as 5/9/24. Yahoo Finance says 16.43% as of 3/9/24. Interesting about Simply WallStreet it seems like its off.
Thanks for sharing that. I think you are right, it does look like it is actually 16%. Thanks for clarifying it. And sorry for the mistake.
@@BaldInvestor another shows 18+% . It’s convoluted, but it’s still high and Stahl will keep buying.