I don't think asking whether a company in a secular growth industry is "cheap" is the right question. This is how people miss fantastic companies. What is far more important is whether it is a fantastic secular growth business, with an indefinite moat and great management. With secular growers, it is far more important to be correct on the business, then for the stock to be cheap.
@@msaw504 Im not personally invested enough in this stock so I haven’t done the DD to be confident. But for most growth stocks the bulls vs bears battle ultimately is decided by the durability of growth. Bears project growth tapers off. Bulls project ongoing or accelerating growth. Typically the outcome of this debate has far greater impact on stock price than the current price.
For your base case scenario, if SHOP grows at 17.5%, why would you only give the company a 30x multiple? The SP500 on average grows about 5-10% but its currently trading at 25 PE. IF SHOP grows 2x faster than the SP500, it should deserve at least a 40PE, right? Did I miss something here?
Just because the stock price drops, doesn't mean it's cheap. However, if lots of retail investors think the drop means it's a sale, and if traders are going to take advantage of the volatility, the price will go up in the short term. My metrics show I should consider it at $45. If you really believe in the company, I don't think it's a bad opportunity.
as always, high quality info. I've been a paying member for about a year. VERY happy with the guidance/analysis that Daniel provides
Thank you! It's the paying members of the UNRIVALED NATION that keeps this channel going!
I don't think asking whether a company in a secular growth industry is "cheap" is the right question. This is how people miss fantastic companies. What is far more important is whether it is a fantastic secular growth business, with an indefinite moat and great management. With secular growers, it is far more important to be correct on the business, then for the stock to be cheap.
Do you think Shopify could be a secular grower in the future based on its business model and challenges it faces?
@@msaw504 Im not personally invested enough in this stock so I haven’t done the DD to be confident. But for most growth stocks the bulls vs bears battle ultimately is decided by the durability of growth. Bears project growth tapers off. Bulls project ongoing or accelerating growth. Typically the outcome of this debate has far greater impact on stock price than the current price.
Shopify has no moat.
@@opencase9903what?! Literally no other company does what Shopify does!
I’m DCA’ing in heavily now. Should see huge growth as more and more brands shift over to their platform.
9:20 cash flow chart 12:20 SHOP still not cheap
For your base case scenario, if SHOP grows at 17.5%, why would you only give the company a 30x multiple? The SP500 on average grows about 5-10% but its currently trading at 25 PE. IF SHOP grows 2x faster than the SP500, it should deserve at least a 40PE, right? Did I miss something here?
Is it possible to get a hold of your valuation model spreadsheet?
Excellent video.
Thank-you for your channel!
Perfect coverage, exactly what I needed :)
Can you make one for CLS? Thanks
Hi Daniel. Just a thought, why not bundle AI ticker chat as part of your premium services?
I love the new thumb nails!🔥
What would your buy price be for this stock then?
when Daniel posts youtube video, I am sure stock is expensive and NOT a buy, in advance :D
I'm picky! ruclips.net/video/nsxGizwLTd8/видео.html
Because he usually has a very similar but better stock behind the paywall
@@joey-r5cdont be silly, no 100 Daniels will pump a stock with billions of market cap
Just because the stock price drops, doesn't mean it's cheap. However, if lots of retail investors think the drop means it's a sale, and if traders are going to take advantage of the volatility, the price will go up in the short term. My metrics show I should consider it at $45. If you really believe in the company, I don't think it's a bad opportunity.
Shopify is a great product but the stock is still very EXPENSIVE!
With this growth it will not get much cheaper. Shopify is probably one of the best companies to dca into in this moment.
More than half of their FCF is stock based compensation ...
At 35 BN I'll start to think about it.
Buy and Hold this one. I see no end in my lifetime to the growth of this secular play.
smart money is different
I have 1000 shares
I have $12k invested at an average of $25..... Just can't but at current price
Don’t get price anchored my G
Second!!
Why touch SHOP when you have likes of BABA
They completely uncomparable, Chinese vs Can, light assets vs heavy assets, growth vs decline
Because everyone’s scared to buy it. That’s why
Yea but why SHOP when WMT?
Thats like comparing tesla and Nio
Because one is Chinese the other isn’t