El-Erian: ‘It’s uncomfortably possible’ that the Fed will push the economy into a recession
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- #El-Erian #FederalReserve #YahooFinance
Queens College Cambridge President Mohamed El-Erian joins Yahoo Finance Live anchors Julie Hyman and Brad Luck to discuss recessionary risks, inflation, volatility, energy futures, supply chain woes, and the outlook for Fed policy.
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El Erian is not only knowledgable, he also has a lovely nature. I appreciate his insights.
He's very pleasant to hear speak, isn't he. I'm like a bull in a china shop. It's all going to hell and we can't change it.
@@EK10241024 Hello. I think knowledge, educating oneself, helps to pre-empt, protect , and minimize the effects of the unfolding circumstances we find ourselves in, globally. Just like preparing for changes in the weather☔ Each person will make choices, which will either increase, or hopefully decrease their exposure/risks to challenging times. The sky will not fall, i have confidence most will navigate through these times, and be better equipped from the experience, when future events take place. Kind regards
Possible that the Fed pushes us into recession? No, it is a certainty that higher rates cause recession, because the Fed has so fucked up the economy that we are dependent on artificially low rates.
did you know his firm committed fraud? and paid a massive fine a month ago? nobody knows this?
@@Henry-oo8op Point me in the direction of this information please.
First it was transitory inflation, then it was a correction, now its an obvious bear market.
Now they're saying recession chances rising, then mild recession possible... I think we know the reality that comes next.
July 29th when second quarter advance estimates of GDP come out, we should have a better feel for whether or not we are already in recession. 2 quarters negative gdp. one down, one to go. I'm betting with my wallet that we're in it and its going to go very very deep and long.
Powell was wrong, but he wasn't wrong before and who knows what will happen in the future.
Depression
@@ThePerimeters , Depression is negative thinking, I don't see it. Things don't stay the same, life keeps changing, sometimes good sometimes not so good. I am positive and patience.
I’m done with crypto currency and stocks trading volatility. Heard NFTs are the new Money Tree. Any idea?
I bumped into a podcast sometime ago. The huge profits those NFT traders make are incredibly too good to be true. Only the greedy will go for it. I would rather put my money into something perpetual. NFTs won’t last long, I predict.
Personally, as one who invested all my inheritance into Real Estate and as someone who has also experimented a couple of other things including crypto currency, I can authoritatively say that NFTs are the best investment option at the moment. I made almost a million last year and even this year too from NFTs, through the help of a pro though. Just imagining what my situation would have been given the vagaries of the Real Estate market if I had solely banked on it.
Pragmatic! I have been into all of these for some time now and though I won’t say I lost a fortune because I gained so much too. Can you say more about this NFTs? Do you mind recommending the Pro you you worked with? I anticipate your response…
@@kathleenstoner.n7499 Something perpetual like what exactly? Till now, I still reap from NFTs. And please stop discouraging people and bad-mouthing people’s biz. After all, I have a couple of NFTs up for Grab
@@vaughnhebron30 Funny! I owe no one any further explanations about this. Believe me or not, NFTs is the new money tree. It takes a level of discipline and decisiveness to go into NFTs. If I’m permitted to drop it here, I work with *Nancy .L. Lewis* Was in the news so much in 2019. You may look out for her on the Web.
The FED is not in the business of saving the economy, they're a private corporation with the interests of Wall Street at heart. Main street is just a minor nuisance for the FED.
Yes you are correct.
Mrs. Warren is right on the money! The Federal Reserve Bank is a criminal organization and the brain-child of the evil JP Morgan. Read a book called "The Creature from Jekyll Island" for full 100 year history of THE EVIL FED
To END THE FED we need a bank holiday and have the government convert all FED DEBT NOTES into US TRESURY REAL MONEY NOTES and tell them to stick their interest rates and FAKE DEBIT where the sun don't shine! End of story!
The Fed caused the supply chain bottlenecks by buying $7 trillion in new govt debt that the Treasury sent out to individuals and businesses. That was a massive increase in artificial demand.
Well said! I am also here to learn how to invest after listening to a lady on tv talk about the importance of investing and how she made 7 figure in 3 month, somehow the video taught me nothing and left me even more confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas on how to invest for retirement
@@ericalorraine7943lookup Priscilla Dearmin-Turner, this is her name online, she's the real investment prodigy since the crash and have help me recovered my loses
There are no anti lock brakes on this car. The brakes are being applied, the road is icy and we are about to slide. My opinion.
Slides don't always result in crashes.
This guy is really good. Honest, not afraid to say when he does not know.
ATL FED and NY FED revised down showing us essentially already in a recession. The question should be how bad and how long is the recession going to be.
bad you cant just fix this issue easily. the problem is due to money printing and how they handled covid. muhammed here is not teling the truth , he knows very well why inflatoin is here. our liberal politicans locked down the countyr, the world followed, because we didnt want to sacrifice the minority to protect hte majority. now that the majority was sacrified, this is what happens.
Real question for the Fed is how far they're willing to go to stifle consumption .....it's not that complicated ....if everybody continues spending money like a bunch of cowboys on payday , it'll be hard to keep a lid on prices and wage inflation . Our productivity is falling , wages are increasing and everyone is standing by price increases pointing at someone else and saying " I didn't want to bump my prices , he made me do it " , while pointing at someone further along in the supply chain. The Fed is going to give everyone a spanking ...they just don't want to acknowledge it .
Chairman El-Erian: "I certainly cannot figure out the fair value of cryptocurrency"
Stoned gamer on Tik-Tok : "I got it NAILED brah"
Once your unemployment pay is depleted you fall off the books. Meaning, the stats no longer include those people who either no longer get or ineligible for unemployment.
You cant
Yes but the uncomfortable truth about this is that a recession is a best-case scenario. What is the alternative?. The Fed pivots and gives up on inflation ... then it's all bets are off and hyperinflation here we come....followed by a global reset.
President Mohamed El-Erian is amazong
very very nice clivage
We enter the hibernation stage to conserve and be efficient when energy and supply chain are stopped.
Is also nice that Mohamed can talk about this and he doesn't have to pull the trigger. He is an outside observer commenting on what he would do, but he doesn't make the decision - easy position for him to be in. I think we all need to see and wait. I think it will all work out well, but I'm not an expert, just a hopeful guy.
It's a fact that additional interest hike will put us in "R".
We all know it.
This is the kind of world we've made for ourselves and our children, better have no enemies when the light goes out, due to the economic criss, wars and rate of unemployment I think now is the best time to invest and make more money for the future.
I m from Ukraine investing now will be a very wise choice to secure a better future for my family God help us.
Investing today is priceless because tomorrow isn't promised, trading Bitcoin gold, stock, Forex, sliver and crypto to secure a better tomorrow.
Its nice for people to talk about investment because it always beats cash..
Problem is with logistics and supply
Warren attacking Powell when it is her team that gave out all the free money last year and sent unemployment to zero, emptied all the store shelves, and prices to the moon. Powell is only able to do one thing to try to help, and that one thing won't be perfect, but if home investors ( and homeowners ) feel "less rich", they will be less inclined to waste money on stupid things like mosquito spraying and power washing. Once that stops, those people will have to find other work; they can go stock shelves at the grocery store, and the price of eggs will come down. They will also have to put their new Camaro up for sale, and there we will get a price break on cars. It trickles down from Powell to the Eggs and Bacon section.
Only 17% of that money went to the lowest earners. 83% went to the wealthiest. The fed balance sheet went from $5.5 trillion in may 2020, today that number is over $7.5 trillion. The airlines spent $50 billion on stock buybacks then got a forgivable loan for $50 billion. The list goes on and on.
Let's keep proping up the too big to fail and crushing our middle class. Best and fastest way to catastrophic failure.
Everyone loses except the rich who use their wealth from the injections to buy up everything and cement their monopolies.
Terrible assessment of the situation, hope you are not in charge of anything more than your keyboard.
@@judaspriestchild Right back at ya my friend.
The middle class has lost roughly 1/3 of its wealth between 1970 and 2020. Total wealth controlled by the middle and lower incomes in 1970 was 71%. 62% to the middle and 9% to the lowest earners. The upper had 29%. In 2020 the middle controlled 42% a 20% drop and almost 1/3 of total. The lowest lost 1% putting them at 8% total. The upper gained 21% putting them in control of 50%.
Consumerism makes up 70% of our GDP. We need people spending money to grow our economy. Our GDP shrunk and my guess is it will continue to shrink because the middle class has lost its buying power. If that trend continues we are f**ked.
I don't care how we do it but the middle class has to recover the buying power lost to the top earners. The top cannot survive without a healthy middle. Shareholder supremacy isn't working.
If my facts are wrong please comment.
Also include an empire that survived without a robust middle class.
Yeah if Warren was in charge of monetary policy inflation would be 25%. Absolutely insane to call for not raising interest rates when inflation is 8.6%, and the real Fed Funds rate is -700 basis points.
During the lockdowns, my neighbors bought: new fence ($10,000+), solar panels, new sod yard, new paver stone walkway, 3 tree removals, new interior remodeling, mosquito spraying, power washing, new vehicles, and the whole neighborhood got remade, while supposedly the kids couldn't go to school, parents could not go to the office. It was a Democrat money flood, that needs to get dammed up. Once it does, some buying will recede. Not to mention all the home buying that is not possible w/o work from home. People are going to have to get dressed and go to work, and then we'll see who orders Uber eats 5 days a week. People in my area with license plates from 8 states away, just speculating like crazy and not working any job.
Why is the media not mentioning raising corporate taxes as a way to un-stimulate the economy? They are very quick to do the opposite whenever possible. Oh, right, for the corporations, by the corporations.
The Fed can take action much more quickly than the legislative process. It can take years for legislation to pass, and by the time the legislation passes, the action may no longer be needed.
@@MB-yn5iu They were very quick to pass legislation handing out trillions for covid. We gave a way for people to consume while not producing anything... here we are a few years later paying for it.
@@thmphll Yes, it had bipartisan support and the economy was in a very tough spot. Unfortunately, tax increases on corporations would never garner such wide ranging support among politicians.
your ignorance of the cause of inflation is showing. it's a monetary phenomenon always
Why put a burden on production with corporate taxes? The Fed created the inflation by buying $7 trlion in new Treasuries in 2020-'21. It can "un-stimulate" the economy by selling bonds and extinguishing the dollars it receives from those bond sales.
When the hell has there ever been a soft landing with this level of inflation?
I'm liken' this.
He seems honest, thank you, that's rare.
Max was here
The moment gas went up in 2001 is the moment this started. Arguably before that..
Just received an economy lesson in 12 minutes lol
Jerry will go down in history as MR TRANSITORY 2022
LOL! Economics is a social science. The Laws of Physics and thermodynamics always win in the end, and like it or not; consumption, mobility, and production will realign with the resources that are available in this biosphere. Better get those fusion reactors online ASAP.
:36 play a little sound? You mean sound bite
where in the Federal Reserve's mandate does the words forward guidance exist🤔 full employment, stable prices and low inflation.
That suit! Waw.
make El Erian the next FED chair?
I notice avocado prices are dropping....sure sign inflation has peaked...100% accurate inflation indicator.
😅
10+
We are already in a recession… what are people talking about?!
ok, yeah if you say so
Who has put world into this situation????
If labor markets are truly strong then a recession will cancel inflation the enough time before oil and gas supplies to balance out in EU. Question is how will long covid cause large number of people to not be able to work which could result in no economic growth since we do not have the work force to make it happen?
Bakit vah
'Great Reset' - new chapter. CBDC incoming - governed by equity and social credit algorithms.
FED can do a controlled recession by lengthening the rate hike duration
They really cant. The longer this goes the more psychologically entrenched it becomes...and then there will be 1970s which would be very difficult.
Inflation running so high for long would destroy lower and lower-middle class.
His answers sound honest, especially admitting his lack of knowledge on crypto predictions.
Sleeping in a tent is uncomfortable...
The only way I can see it going up in the near future is QE
That suit.
Please tell Dr. El-Erian that he needs to stop using a wifi connection, but a wired Ethernet connection. His data bits are arriving out of order, a bit scrambled.
Fair value for bitcoin? Zero. It's amazing listing to an intelligent man talk *sheisse*
Most people purchase a house in CASH? there is some wrong happen?
I luv the FED. Can't wait for Central Bank Digital Currency.
I always wondered how the Hell a € be worth more than $ 😆😆 magic
yahoooo talk about the synthetic shorts
Babba Booey is smarter than I thought.
Free Newton's pair
El-Erian is always criticizing the FED on "hindsight"... wonder how he will fare if he is the Chairman... lol
I agree, "everything is obvious in hindsight", at the time the FED was hailed a hero by everyone for saving the economy and stock market - the meme of Powel as the god of the stock market was a thing for a reason, now it's easy to look back and say there were flaws but I wonder who had the stomach to lead the change back then.
That’s what I’ve been saying too! No one ever asks him what he would do if he was the chair
Not really. El Erian has been spot on when it comes to predicting the fed's next move. Since middle of last year he has been calling for tightening, and had guessed, rightly, that the fed will please markets
I disagree, he already said that the Fed was too late a year ago. However, would he have the guts to tighten back then? That is an important question.
@@abdulrahmanmian3734 You are right indeed.....he did mention earlier but there are other risks too if Fed tightened too early. Question is if he was in JP's position, what would he have done at what point of time and at what magnitude... with better outcome?
IT WILL BE FINE. In any other normal year where everything is status quo, employment is normal, ect...ect... rate hikes or cyclical cycles can make for a recession. We are running red hot, like 150%...you take measures to knock it down 50% and we're still at 100.
Translation....We are screwed.
MEE is the economist version of Jordan Peterson. We are lucky to have him share his perspective.
Peterson is a pseudo intellectual and druggie who has little to offer smart people
I have been 100% agreement with Mr. El-Erian over the last 2 years, with one exception.... cryptocurrencies. I am convinced that non-fiat crypto is a valueless "asset" destined for a very ugly ending.
I think you're right on Crypto
Yall are both wrong 🤣
@@BrandonClark-StocksPassports explain.
Not everyday is a Sunday, don't you know. 🙄
Liz might be wrong about the Administrations efforts to make gas available?
But the US Economy seems to face 30 trillion in bills with a GDP that seems to be diminishing.....
I"t could be bad." ............Troy Tschuti
possible? I thought we already in one
There might be an economical turmoil but there is no doubt that this is still the best time to invest.
Best time to invest? thats funny though because in the last four months I have lost more than $47,900 in stock market which is the biggest I have loss since I ventured into stock investment.
you could be right or wrong . i once had similar problem but now its a different ball game for me because I was lucky to have met TERESA JENSEN WHITE, a financial manager and stock expert, I have made more than $165,000 in 6 weeks under her supervisions
Really? people are cashing in from the stock market and frankly speaking its comforting seeing someone admit to the fact that they actually seek help from professionals. please how can i reach TERESA ?
search her name on the internet to reach her
thanks for the info. Found her website and it really impressive
The letter R
So fixed income is dead and inflation 20 percent, the Fed has no choice in this matter at all.
To be honest, it will be a mild recession. Some sectors have bottomed.
OH WHO KNEW printing $$$ like Zimbabwe could lead to Hyper Inflation???!!!! Certainly not Mr Powell !!!
You mean print money give it to your bankster freinds to buy propperty stocks when you lockdown the economy, than raise rates and bankrupt more small biz and make millions of financial slaves for the next 100 years, its mobster inc what do you expect
Deymon strategy works hence my result, he provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on., He got interviewed on CNBC Television.
Well guess what we just had FTX crashing and now we have the new giant. Just few hours ago VRI TOKEN asset hit the roads. I think they have a better chance to run these things since their funds are pretty much unlimited?
Mr Sam Deymon is a good trader, he is my portfolio manager.
samfmtradeacademy >>>>TE LEG RAM
@samsfmtradeacademy THAT IS SAMDEYMON USER NAME
Comparing crypto to the invention of the steam engine is a stretch. Steam engines are assets that perform work. They transformed our world. Cryptocurrencies are much more comparable to a series of gambling websites. They are excellent tools for speculation. They often pose as technologies with real-world implications (e.g., supply chain visibility) but in reality ten years and tens of billions of dollars in venture capital investment have not produced any meaningful products. No work is produced, and there are no dividends from positive cash flows. As a speculative tool, they are interesting for people with early access and proprietary information (e.g., VCs and celebrities).
Let's just go through with the collapse.
It's necessary to start with a clean, new system; new world reserve currency, and everything else.
@@enriquetasaldivar No, a world government and world reserve currency would be terrible.
Who knew printing trillions of dollars and taking 2 years off work would lead to a recession???
but it seemed like a great idea! liz warren has giant balls. such a dimwit
in mobster inc the government has to borrow its own money from the bankster and pay interest
Just accept it, it's coming.
We're already in a recession 🙄🤦. Next GDP will confirm that 😝
June 26th is the date we will find out
@@AF-xi8ly we will, but I've already calculated it
@@ESODaily exactly. Go to gas stations and see that most people are not filling up their cars. When the economy is doing well folks fill their tanks.
@@AF-xi8lyJune 26th?
@@dragonprince7 I believe that is when the gdp data comes out. Maybe I’m wrong. If we go negative again then it’s official. but again I heard nothing today and must of got it wrong since it is the 27th
At this point, recession is inevitable and this could be worse than 2008. The global markets are down. The world and the markets are alike in that everything goes in cycles, and we should be heading into a large correction. I just hope it's a short term correction and not a multi-year stuff. Folks, make the best out of what you have. Don't leave it sitting in the banks. I'm just gonna stick with stock diversification using the copytrading system. I'm up 18% for this quarter. It's a much better deal than letting it sit in savings or checking earning near 0-1% interest.
I feel the same way. I fear this one may be worse simply because we have so many head winds. How does the copytrading work? My portfolio is drifting terribly far from safe waters lately. Really looking for a lifeline.
@@theexpendables3152 My funds are pretty much diversified. You should probably try algorithmic trading; copy the gurus, more so one with experience of the past bear markets. I copy a chartered financial analyst Josephine Guevara Laporte. Been quite consistent. My portfolio returned approximately $120k in the last quarter.
Hi I'm already in retirement and have like $400k in a CD account with a very low interest. I only need $10k for liquidity purposes(emergency fund) and plan on growing the bulk to over a million. I found Josephine Laporte's official website after looking up her name. Quite impressed at her portfolio and I want to schedule a call with her. What's the fee structure?
@@ramseyb1573 Since it's an algo trading based model, it's very much transparent because you can actually see what assets you have and how much growth your portfolio has achieved. Josephine takes 10% of only the profits, no hidden fees.
@@virgilhall6866 I find it better to pay a little bit more for peace of mind than worry about market trends and still get burned. I just dropped a message via the website. Thank you
As sson as Warren started talking, you should have dubbed the native American mouth clapping holler.
Literally no one will take a chance on the Jets
Geeeee, no kidding.
If prices were to come down the retailer will get burned
JPow thinking "let's go Brandon"
I am rooting for a recession, and interest rates at 25%
Why?
No your not 😂😂
25% interest rate will be great because i will buy 25% interest low risk government bonds which is better than the higher risk equities and hope equities will make 25% which are not a sure thing.
@@vchanpe1 This guy get it.
@@vchanpe1 you only think of yourself. 25% interest rate would kill anyone with the mortage, line of credit, credot card debt. Don’t you have anyone in situation like that?
He keeps buying into the narrative that the labor market is strong. Simply, IT ISN'T. The jobless rate metric has been intentionally softened to make it all look better for the obvious political reason.
1) Underemployment is not counted. IT NEEDS TO BE.
2) People unemployed for longer than six months aren't counted anymore. THEY NEED TO BE.
Hosts... don't mean to nitpick, but your choices of clothing should be both appropriate and coordinated... your show Producer has failed on both counts.
Soft landing, hard landing and then there’s Messiah’s sledge hammer
EL - Erian want's Hyper inflation .
First, we squeeze then we fucking sue !!!
It is not Fed! Unable to see deeply
The fed did not have any credit, to begin with.
Dawg, that suit is not were its at.
Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation
recession recession recession...oh wait...recession recession..try writing it many times and see the spelling mistakes that happen.
👍💐
There will 100% be a recession, and the peak numbers are next week. But El-Erian has been predicting doom for 25 years. Good DEI interviewer.
magically
DOH!!! they need inflation to wipe out their balance sheet
Sadly, we still have a long way down. Once the crypto gurus get out of YT and nobody will have the attitude of buying a dip, then we are finally at the bottom.
Why did the Fed lower rates over the past years which only facilitated and encouraged more debt and spending. Normal business practice would be to raise rates as risk exposure increases.
There wasn't a care in the world when the fed was dumping money on the market
The moment the Fed decided to put the interest to "0". There was no going back. Raising interest rate is a big mistake. Worse than inflation.
So according to you, you think that keeping interest rates at 0 will somehow combat inflation?
You do understand that the reason we got inflation is because of printing all that money and because of lowering interest rates.
When money becomes so easily available everyone is buying and that makes low supply and hi demand, wich creates inflation
you say going to zero was a mistake but you imply raising is also a mistake?
Every time I listen to Elizabeth Warren I lose an IQ point
Stocks are 50-80% down and still were not in a recession? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
defund 800 bases to save the economy
That suit is whack