Michael Pizzolla's 2023 Preakness Stakes ValueCapping™ Rant
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- Опубликовано: 5 окт 2024
- In this video, noted thoroughbred handicapping author, teacher, and expert Michael Pizzolla presents a value approach to the 2023 Preakness Stakes to be run at Pimlico on Saturday, May 20, 2023. Michael gives an introduction to the basic premise of ValueCapping™ and then takes you through the races through the lens of the ValueCapping approach and his ValueCapper Software.
For more information, please visit:
www.PostTimeDaily.com and
www.ValueCapper.com
For Michael’s video “Stop Betting Slow Horses” on the Fulcrum Horse:
• Stop Betting Slow Hors...
Great video again and we appreciate your hard work. Aaron from Red Rock casino
Aaron! So good to hear from you, and thanks so much for the kind words and support. Good luck on Preakness Day and always!
Good information on the Derby Michael!
I used your data and won in the Derby.
Another Great video Michael !!
Love the fact that you tell it like it is !!!
No sugar coating !!!!
Thanks, Paul, really appreciate your watching, and your support, my friend!
Fantastic video Michael!👍🏾
Thanks, DJ, really appreciate your watching, your kind words, and your support!
Although not a great value bet, I'm going to make a small win bet on National Treasure, and a small exacta box with Blazing Sevens.
great again, TALK ABOUT TWO SITUATIONS....fast pace vs slow vs normal pace, but we dont know how it plays
Always great information! I think most players have one general mantra..
"Don't confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up."
Thanks for taking the time and doing these videos.
Thanks, Kyle, for watching and your spot-on comment!
why was Mage not the fulcrum. He had the best second call time and was within 2 1/4 lenghts at the second call and finished first
Hi Geo, Thanks for watching and your keen eye. So, Mage was, as you say, within the lengths criteria for both the second call and finish in the Derby, but the cutoff distance for races to use for the Fulcrum is 9.5 furlongs-the software won't use races longer than that. It may seem a bit arbitrary, but in our research, we found that numbers taken from 10 furlong and up races were a bit weaker. Thanks again!
Nice video Michael, was good to see the practical application of the software with supporting details. I will take everything under advisement and publish my final Preakness pics on Saturday at about 7:03 PM. :)
Thanks Jason, for watching, for your kind words, and most of all, giving me a good hearty laugh this afternoon! Yes, we will all most certainly be geniuses at about that time on Saturday!
@@valuetechinc I just realized Michael passed today as I returned for the Derby rant. RIP my friend, this year's selection prep will not be the same.
Appreciate the "woulda, coulda, shoulda" conversation...
Thanks, Brad. I know it's not a popular message, but it's one that I feel is very important. Many thanks for watching and your kind words.
I have been a supporter MP's for years. The scratch of Forte changed the outcome of Valuecapper's prediction in terms of algorithm pace. I know it is numbers but you really had to have Two Phil's ranked hire than Kingsbarn, not sure but Pizzola Fractions and PBS did not match up Two Phil's and I am sorry it kicked out KIngsbarn in top two..never in a million would I have used him in the pace scenario..it was 6 horses with E speeds. TapitTrice, was playing with fire as a horse since the TB Derby because the little tangibles in horse racing have to be paid attn too. i.e. bad out of the gate and hard races like the TB Derby with bad field and a small field in the Blue Grass Kingsbarn crawled in the Louisisana Derby and who did Prat choose to ride??? VC does thousands of races a week, MP is right..enjoy the derby recrecreationally or study it carefully otherwise a computer kick out will not give you the answer..The Two Phils' was ready to run huge Pace up front and trained like and Mage got a magical trip, a great gate position and Pace to run at which a computer can not predict.. The Two Phils ended up third on the line and Mage 4-5 I believe. Two Phils was my box bet with Angel of Empire Mage because that was the value and the two on top as far as I was concerned did not belong there, Only Tapit Trice turned up in my top 5 complete analysis and Disarm did not. Good Job
P.S. Slow fractions on Kingsbarn compared to others, Tapeta is starting to prove that it's speed can transfer to dirt i.e. Two Phil's and Strike it Rich. You see how many horse fields Turfway Park gets and you will see the popularity of top horses going to the Jeff Ruby...in the coming years if the trend continues. Also, as far as today's Preakness, Pace software will and did kill Blazing Sevens in terms of on the line above the Line but these races are about following connections, Irad Ortiz on him/Chad Brown connections, one bad race and the horse is smaller, Chad let him grow and mature more and he if had the physical stature of National Treasure, perhaps he wins.. He wins not only because of his speed and his fulcrum speed but rested and the only real front end speed and the herd mentality kicked and young horses are just not savy enough to change their running styles.
My value priced horse to hit the board is RR1, based on his mph speeds.
Good luck at the Preakness!
I used the GPS data for stride length and mph for the colts' previous outs for the derby and Mage had the fastest midway mph in the FL. Derby (even faster than Forte for the 3/4). He slowed down considerably at the end of that race and the KY derby, but I assume they must slow down some for that long of a race? Anyway, we're on the same page. I love your videos. Thanks so much.
Thanks, Silver Charm. The truth is that with very few exceptions, horses decelerate at the end of the race, even if they are passing horses. Thanks for your perceptive comments and for watching!
Liking National Treasure. Derby has become a crap shoot. Top trainer of our generation will be back next year..
Good luck at the Preakness!
Thank You Michael, you were animated had me laughing.
Thanks, Polar-you're so right, I do get worked up sometimes talking about this game we enjoy so much. Really appreciate your watching and glad you had a laugh!
When will your software be updated to include more recent versions of windows?
Hi Bart, In the video, I'm running ValueCapper under Windows 11. I'm not aware of a more recent (non-beta) version. Thanks very much for watching!
Michael, you were Suberd, you were making Calls better than a Top Nascar Crew Chief, you adjusted faster than a NFL head Coach .
You ere on top of it like Tiger woods Caddie Before the Blondes .
Great job, plus you dress nice. Is that Lauren or Gaucci ?
Hi John, I'll take that as high praise. Thanks so much for watching and for your kind words!
@@valuetechinc you're welcome! Out of All the Talking Heads who never Mucked a stall,
Put on a Halter.
You made Real time adjustments ,
Where I confident in my Desicion and had a positive R.O.I. . God Bless
well take your coffe with chris & good luck with that
Good luck at the Preakness!
Ha! With the bet of the #4 you do get an asset after your losing win ticket....You get to keep the coffee