Thanks a lot for mentioning Return Stacking. I think that's exactly what I would like to have too. I have also added the Flirting with Models Podcast to my list, but it probably takes a while until I get to it. I have to keep up with Many Happy Returns and The Rational Reminder and I've started listening to a fitness podcast (diversification is important). By the time I am up to date with that one I probably wonder why I added a PUA podcast. But so far this actually reinforced the issues that I see with it. The managed future strategies go long and short to maximize the carry and they are in fact short long government bonds, which makes sense to me. The baseline return of the asset is just one part of the equation. The current SONIA rate is 4.7%, but I can't just lever that up 10x to get 47%. I have to subtract the cost of carry. And in the current yield environment that should result in negative yields for the bond futures or am I wrong?
Hi @bultvidxxxix9973 in theory you could lever up the SONIA rate. The question is always how much you pay for the leverage and now that borrowing rates are higher this becomes less profitable. If you lever up the risk-free rate it's unlikely you can borrow at less than the risk-free rate so I doubt this would be a good idea. The problem with return stacking is that it could be volatile and if stocks and bonds fall together you could suffer a fairly large fall in value. It depends on the managed futures and whether they switch from long to short quickly enough. Thanks, Ramin.
Thanks for breaking down the FTSE equity income fund. It’s one of these funds that I’m considering sequencing towards when I reach retirement in the next 20 years. I’ll still contribute towards the fund
It's certain that this year will bring more challenging challenges. Looking back, I realized that I spent the entire previous year making expensive financial blunders because I was so consumed with worrying about my portfolio. I was forced to decide between raising my investments and purchasing a home. I discovered that the property I had bought needed more work than I had anticipated after deciding to sell my investments. It's becoming more difficult to determine how much longer I can take this.
Didn't realise that the FTSE UK income index excludes REITs and investment trusts as well as any stock without forecast dividends - that's interesting.
Hi Ramin, happy new year! It seems it is going to be a year with all the political changes in US. The year started with the news on Steel. Do you think it may be a good time to invest in X?
Ive also own an electric mg4 xpower because its exceleration in a straight line from 0-60 is 3.8secs, faster than many petrol cars that are 3times more expensive. It has the advantage that a full battery charge is under £10
The innaguration date is set by the Constitution. It used to be March 4th, but that was deemed too long of a wait. You'll be happy to know I finally sold Tesla...for an indecent profit. My wife is doubly happy as she despised Musk.
You said you would keep 5 years money so that you don't need to take money out of your investments.... but what happens after a year? You only have 4 years left of cash now, do you continue to take money out as long as markets have gone up, and then don't take it out if markets are down and hope it goes up again before you run out of money?
Hi @kygo the low risk investments are there so I don't crystallise a loss in equity if it crashes. Instead I'd sell my low risk investments to give equity the time to recover. If equities have not recovered by the time my safe investments run out then I'd start selling equities. Once equities recover I would start to build up my safe investments again for the next equity fall. Under normal conditions I'd sell equities. Thanks, Ramin
Hi Ramin, I’d love to be a member, but £5.70 just to view your videos early doesn’t make sense. I’d absolutely love to be a premium member but almost £20 a month just isn’t possible for me. I think adding some of the other features such as beginner bundle and member only videos would make it much more worth while and justifiable for people like myself who are just starting off.
Hi @eirenwhelan3312 The beginner bundle and lots of members only videos are part of the Premium member package. If you want to try it you only have to subscribe for one month and then if it's not for you it's easy to cancel. Thank Ramin
If the US expands oil and gas production, what companies benefit the most. Fertilizer, chemicals. Anything less economically dependent. Maybe data centers supporting AI that use a lot of nat gas 😊
Also shipping wins. Transportation overhead is already accounted for in their well to pump models. If it makes them money, they will pump, and that means more demand for transportation whether that means shipping, bulk freight or pipeline. Conversely, cheaper gas is one of the biggest overheads for transportation, so cheap gas is a double win. Pair that with the fact that most pipeline and bulk shippers are way down compared to market due to everyone's fear that Trump will make all trade just randomly evaporate. It won't. In general AI and crypto are not as heavily influenced by the power bill as you might assume. Yes, it affects their bottom line, but their profit margin is built on the end product, not on cheap production. I would be wary of AI and quantum around these valuations which are way way too high. The chip suppliers will continue to profit, but be very picky about a company's product and promises. AI gets lots of promises, but not a lot of actual value getting delivered in most companies. Watch the revenue before you drink the koolaid
@@ShorlanTanzo thanks for the reply. The data center comment was more of a joke, but maybe AI could find the company with nat gas as highest input that is less tied to economic growth.
Hi @BILLY-O-1982 "Trump and dump" was in our weekly market roundup two months ago pensioncraft.kit.com/posts/weekly-market-roundup-stock-markets-embrace-the-trump-trade?_gl=1*11cpaz2*_gcl_au*NDM0NTE0Mzc2LjE3MzU5Mjg0OTc. but I doubt we were the first to coin it! Thanks, Ramin
Hi Ramin. Would really like to get more of an understanding regarding individual inflation linked gilts (including how to calculate return and portfolio weighting). Any chance of a deep dive video on the subject sometime? 🙂
Hi @barredrock21 we've got two very detailed videos for our members "Practical Guide To Inflation Linked Bonds" pensioncraft.com/patreon-post/inflation-linked-bonds-2/ "My Inflation Linked Bond Experience" pensioncraft.com/patreon-post/inflation-linked-bond/ In the second one I show how difficult it is to take breakeven inflation into account and show what went (a bit) wrong when I bought an inflation linked gilt. Thanks, Ramin.
Thanks for the analysis! Could you help me with something unrelated: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?
Constantly hearing this overvalued talk of the big seven by analysts and experts. As 1998 turned to 1999 many said the same as the previous four years had seen +20% annual gains of the index. The S&P 500 ended up returning a fifth successive year of +20% gains, returning +21% in 1999. Nobody can predict. Even the so called experts.
@ Exactly. You could just as easily make an argument for the S&P 500 to return +30% this year - between 1980-2000 this was achieved six times. Since 2000 only twice thus far, so well overdue… or not.
So you are saying someone who went all-in on the S&P 500 in 1999 had a good return over the next, let's say, 3 years? There's a pretty telling image by JP Morgan with S&P valuations on the x-axis and returns in the next year on the y-axis, and the points were all over the place. Then there was a second chart with same x-axis but returns in the next 10 years, and this time it was basically a straight line. The higher the valuations, the worse are the returns in the next 10 years, but it's unpredictable in the short term.
@@VoiceOfThe Why are you stopping there? 2002 -22.10% 2001 -11.89% 2000 -9.10% The image I was referring to is from Guide to Markets - Europe, page 53, by the way.
You lost me at "not a great start to 2024" Lost a month of return, and you don't even know what year it is... how am I supposed to follow you after That? Also, your sound is still too quiet. Got the volume turned all the way up, can barely hear your whispering little voice, speak up mate
Why are you so negative? If you have nothing positive to say it’s better to say nothing. I think he’s very good. The market was down in December, however the global market was up approximately 20% overall last year.
Hi Ramin! Happy New Year! Thank you for once again producing some of the best financial content and analysis out there in the space 😀
Hi @alexanderzagajewski7921 thank you very much and a Happy New Year to you too! Thanks, Ramin
Just all around informative, interesting and relaxing session. Thanks. 👍
Glad you enjoyed it @thetjt
Thanks!
Thank you @billbodge3879 that's very kind of you! Ramin
Thanks a lot for mentioning Return Stacking. I think that's exactly what I would like to have too.
I have also added the Flirting with Models Podcast to my list, but it probably takes a while until I get to it. I have to keep up with Many Happy Returns and The Rational Reminder and I've started listening to a fitness podcast (diversification is important). By the time I am up to date with that one I probably wonder why I added a PUA podcast.
But so far this actually reinforced the issues that I see with it. The managed future strategies go long and short to maximize the carry and they are in fact short long government bonds, which makes sense to me. The baseline return of the asset is just one part of the equation. The current SONIA rate is 4.7%, but I can't just lever that up 10x to get 47%. I have to subtract the cost of carry. And in the current yield environment that should result in negative yields for the bond futures or am I wrong?
Hi @bultvidxxxix9973 in theory you could lever up the SONIA rate. The question is always how much you pay for the leverage and now that borrowing rates are higher this becomes less profitable. If you lever up the risk-free rate it's unlikely you can borrow at less than the risk-free rate so I doubt this would be a good idea. The problem with return stacking is that it could be volatile and if stocks and bonds fall together you could suffer a fairly large fall in value. It depends on the managed futures and whether they switch from long to short quickly enough. Thanks, Ramin.
Thanks for breaking down the FTSE equity income fund.
It’s one of these funds that I’m considering sequencing towards when I reach retirement in the next 20 years. I’ll still contribute towards the fund
Hi @Abdul_Rahman86 my pleasure! Thanks, Ramin
Thanks you and happy new year
Happy New Year @Lenny-nr4yv
Heading towards 7T on the sideline waiting to buy the dip. Won’t be down for long. 👍
Happy new year 👍
Happy new year @PhillCurtis
Cheers Ramin, happy new year 🎊
Happy new year @brownfox3180
It's certain that this year will bring more challenging challenges. Looking back, I realized that I spent the entire previous year making expensive financial blunders because I was so consumed with worrying about my portfolio. I was forced to decide between raising my investments and purchasing a home. I discovered that the property I had bought needed more work than I had anticipated after deciding to sell my investments. It's becoming more difficult to determine how much longer I can take this.
Take things easy, we've all made mistakes
The house comes first in my opinion, so you did the right thing, you cannot set up home in share certificates!
Didn't realise that the FTSE UK income index excludes REITs and investment trusts as well as any stock without forecast dividends - that's interesting.
Hi @adamlang7361 that's interesting I didn't know about those exclusions. Excluding (forecast) non-dividend payers makes sense. Thanks, Ramin
Hi Ramin, happy new year! It seems it is going to be a year with all the political changes in US. The year started with the news on Steel. Do you think it may be a good time to invest in X?
Hi @pablob618 I believe X is private so you can't invest in it. Thanks, Ramin.
Ive also own an electric mg4 xpower because its exceleration in a straight line from 0-60 is 3.8secs, faster than many petrol cars that are 3times more expensive. It has the advantage that a full battery charge is under £10
😂😂😂
Most of this was way over me Ramin. I think i need to go back to the basic courses and the join the Pc community asap. I have a long way to go 😢
The community is really good and heartily recommended
Hi @chrisyates2591 you're always welcome back! Thanks, Ramin.
Thank you. It is helpful and motivating to have these supportive comments.
Trump's inauguration is January 20th
Hi @thomascrew8268 my brain popped January 6th off the stack for obvious reasons 8-( Thanks, Ramin.
The innaguration date is set by the Constitution. It used to be March 4th, but that was deemed too long of a wait. You'll be happy to know I finally sold Tesla...for an indecent profit. My wife is doubly happy as she despised Musk.
You said you would keep 5 years money so that you don't need to take money out of your investments.... but what happens after a year? You only have 4 years left of cash now, do you continue to take money out as long as markets have gone up, and then don't take it out if markets are down and hope it goes up again before you run out of money?
Hi @kygo the low risk investments are there so I don't crystallise a loss in equity if it crashes. Instead I'd sell my low risk investments to give equity the time to recover. If equities have not recovered by the time my safe investments run out then I'd start selling equities. Once equities recover I would start to build up my safe investments again for the next equity fall. Under normal conditions I'd sell equities. Thanks, Ramin
"Return stacking" looks like a brilliant scheme to attract people to leveraging🤣
Hi Ramin, I’d love to be a member, but £5.70 just to view your videos early doesn’t make sense. I’d absolutely love to be a premium member but almost £20 a month just isn’t possible for me. I think adding some of the other features such as beginner bundle and member only videos would make it much more worth while and justifiable for people like myself who are just starting off.
Hi @eirenwhelan3312 The beginner bundle and lots of members only videos are part of the Premium member package. If you want to try it you only have to subscribe for one month and then if it's not for you it's easy to cancel. Thank Ramin
If the US expands oil and gas production, what companies benefit the most. Fertilizer, chemicals. Anything less economically dependent. Maybe data centers supporting AI that use a lot of nat gas 😊
Also shipping wins. Transportation overhead is already accounted for in their well to pump models. If it makes them money, they will pump, and that means more demand for transportation whether that means shipping, bulk freight or pipeline. Conversely, cheaper gas is one of the biggest overheads for transportation, so cheap gas is a double win.
Pair that with the fact that most pipeline and bulk shippers are way down compared to market due to everyone's fear that Trump will make all trade just randomly evaporate. It won't.
In general AI and crypto are not as heavily influenced by the power bill as you might assume. Yes, it affects their bottom line, but their profit margin is built on the end product, not on cheap production. I would be wary of AI and quantum around these valuations which are way way too high. The chip suppliers will continue to profit, but be very picky about a company's product and promises. AI gets lots of promises, but not a lot of actual value getting delivered in most companies. Watch the revenue before you drink the koolaid
@@ShorlanTanzo thanks for the reply. The data center comment was more of a joke, but maybe AI could find the company with nat gas as highest input that is less tied to economic growth.
Are we coining the phrase Trump and dump?
Hi @BILLY-O-1982 "Trump and dump" was in our weekly market roundup two months ago pensioncraft.kit.com/posts/weekly-market-roundup-stock-markets-embrace-the-trump-trade?_gl=1*11cpaz2*_gcl_au*NDM0NTE0Mzc2LjE3MzU5Mjg0OTc. but I doubt we were the first to coin it! Thanks, Ramin
@Pensioncraft I must have stole it from you. 😆😆
Hi Ramin. Would really like to get more of an understanding regarding individual inflation linked gilts (including how to calculate return and portfolio weighting). Any chance of a deep dive video on the subject sometime? 🙂
Hi @barredrock21 we've got two very detailed videos for our members
"Practical Guide To Inflation Linked Bonds" pensioncraft.com/patreon-post/inflation-linked-bonds-2/
"My Inflation Linked Bond Experience" pensioncraft.com/patreon-post/inflation-linked-bond/
In the second one I show how difficult it is to take breakeven inflation into account and show what went (a bit) wrong when I bought an inflation linked gilt.
Thanks, Ramin.
“Very accusing look …” hilarious
Thanks for the analysis! Could you help me with something unrelated: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?
Call , 666.
Adverts 😩
Constantly hearing this overvalued talk of the big seven by analysts and experts.
As 1998 turned to 1999 many said the same as the previous four years had seen +20% annual gains of the index.
The S&P 500 ended up returning a fifth successive year of +20% gains, returning +21% in 1999.
Nobody can predict. Even the so called experts.
@@VoiceOfThe no real investor believes anybody can predict the stock market.
@
Exactly.
You could just as easily make an argument for the S&P 500 to return +30% this year - between 1980-2000 this was achieved six times.
Since 2000 only twice thus far, so well overdue… or not.
So you are saying someone who went all-in on the S&P 500 in 1999 had a good return over the next, let's say, 3 years?
There's a pretty telling image by JP Morgan with S&P valuations on the x-axis and returns in the next year on the y-axis, and the points were all over the place. Then there was a second chart with same x-axis but returns in the next 10 years, and this time it was basically a straight line. The higher the valuations, the worse are the returns in the next 10 years, but it's unpredictable in the short term.
@@VoiceOfThe Why are you stopping there?
2002 -22.10%
2001 -11.89%
2000 -9.10%
The image I was referring to is from Guide to Markets - Europe, page 53, by the way.
@@bultvidxxxix9973
Keep replying but Ramin or RUclips deleting
You lost me at "not a great start to 2024"
Lost a month of return, and you don't even know what year it is... how am I supposed to follow you after That?
Also, your sound is still too quiet.
Got the volume turned all the way up, can barely hear your whispering little voice, speak up mate
Must be deaf, I can hear him fine. Should have that seen to mate.
Why are you so negative? If you have nothing positive to say it’s better to say nothing. I think he’s very good. The market was down in December, however the global market was up approximately 20% overall last year.
get a hearing aid mate
Most people take a few months to update it to a new year, if you are going to discount everything he say for this you should go somewhere else
What an incredibly weird thing to complain about.
Teddy looking upset.