Note that in the 1970s and '80s many people had defined benefit pension, and the flow of cash going into the stock market was much less. Now the situation is very different - billions are pumping into the US stock market every day from private pension funds.
@@muffemod Any evidence of this? Withdrawals are gradual - retirees typically don't withdraw hundreds of thousands at once! And the US stock market is invested in by people worldwide, not just the US.
@@muffemod It's always been that way. There were only 4 investments the pension plans invested in, Equities, Bonds, Real Estate (whether direct, REIT's, or mortgages), and Treasuries. The pensions were never just "free money". They were generally separately managed liabilities handled by different companies, whether it was outsourced or in house. So nothing really changed anyways. The only difference is that instead of the money being put into pensions, which would then be invested into the market and other investments, they are now being put into 401K's and then being put into managed funds by the big 3 (vanguard, fidelity, schwab). So essentially there is no difference, except that companies now pay less for retiree benefits.
I seriously doubt that S&P 500 will plunge 26%, Reason? There is an equal market chance associated with each crash or collapse. I have seen people accumulate up to $1 million during a crisis, and even make it work in a strong economy if they are prepared and well-informed. Without a doubt, the bubble/collapse is making someone wealthy.
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, Financial Consultants are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst the covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded massively in ROI, summing up to 7-figures as of today.
There are tons of benefits to having a financial advisor, but here’s one example: My advisor based a small part of my portfolio on Nancy Pelosi’s investments, which is completely legal. That portion has gone up 71% in just six months-take that info as you will.
Sophia Irene Powell is the licensed advisor I use and im just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
Even with a global equity fund we're something like 50% in the S&P. The concentration risk certainly concerns me but I'm also concerned about the risk of having to made allocation choices myself. I think I'll retain the global equity fund with the concentration risk (in the S&P) as the lesser of two evils.
Great insight. When S&P 500 is running so hot, it's always a good time to think about de-risking. I'll till more towards equal weight S&P 500 index (RSP), small cap value (AVUV), developed world ex-US (VEA) and 10-year treasury is about 4.5% and it's getting interesting to add some (TLT).
This is so interesting and helpful. I’ve been wondering why your main portfolio is a total stock market fund and I guess this is why. Your research determined that even with your investing background you decided you couldn’t outperform the market by picking stocks!
I don’t invest in the S&P500 because of past performance. I invest in the S&P500 because 1)it’s better than leaving it to erode due to inflation. 2) leaving it in my bank account where I’ll be tempted to spend it. 3) All the top companies are listed on the US
Great video as usual! The only thing missing, and maybe it would make a very long video so it's understandable, it would be the context on why some periods are better in some regions. In my opinion, the top US stocks are no longer 'US' stocks. The world has changed and most top US companies get around 30-50% of their revenue from overseas. Some of these companies have, at present, competitive advantages due to large investments made in the past so it's hard to see how the next Microsoft will come from Europe or Asia in the near term. This could change in the long term but I think it's safe to say that American enterprises will still dominate in the medium-short term. If an investor, follows the current trends and stays informed, shouldn'tt need to have a portfolio for 'every scenario'. Again this is just my opinion.
Can’t remember which investment bank it was who said it, but they said that their most successful investors were the ones who had died and the bank wasn’t informed. The dead investors stayed invested and didn’t tinker around with their investments.
That's a lot of green in this video for some reason...I was just in Westminster Abbey and their seasonal altar hanging - or whatever it is - color is also green for the moment... Hmmm
What a great video. I sometimes worry that, if there was a big crash in the S&P 500 (above 20%), would the other stock markets worldwide follow suit? It will also be interesting to see what happens with UK stock markets, given the proposed pension fund changes. We live in interesting times.
Most likely yes - in 2007 crash for example American took the world's equities down with it. Same in the 2000 crash. But this makes total sense because US equities are like 70% of global equities. So when they get hit every global fund takes a sh*t as well.
Thanks Ramin, great video as always! How does this non-significant difference between countries stack up with market cap weighted portfolios? Would this not indicate you should have an equal weighted global portfolio divided equally between how many markets you include?
There's a long way to go from the bottom to the top, Vs already being at the top and needing to go further. Indonesia could build a dozen bullet trains but Japan already has bullet trains and equivalent transformation in speed is no longer really possible or at least easy.
Hello sir, i have so many of my company stocks from options, espp offers. Do you have a video or strategy on how to get out of single stock concentration situation? Thank you for your videos.
I am 50/50 Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500. Doing well, but thinking of going 100 % Nasdaq 100. Most progressive and innovative companies seem to only.want to list on that Index these.days.
Workplace pensions often have limited options. Best I could find with a low ish fee is a World Ex UK one but that’s 70% US and a large and mega cap one. There’s a small cap option which isn’t as cheap I could go into for a bit at some point.
Me too, the best historical performer with my provider is the Shariah Compliant Dow Jones Titans 100, it’s quite concentrated and not the cheapest but it’s the only one I can find that invests entirely in quality US stocks with excellent past performance.
I’m not sure how analysis of countries the way you suggested helps going forward. For eg VHVG has 6.4% Japan, France 2.6%, Switzerland 2.4% Germany 2.2%… so if any of these countries outperforms the SP500, this isn’t going to be reflected in the fund performance over 10 years, given the small percentages allocated to other countries.
You can argue that companies in S and P are already global companies and they not operate only in USA ..in that terms you can say that S&P is global fund even that is based in USA ??
Sure but there is a risk that rest of the world might not always be happy with US tech companies bleeding their economies China doesn't allow Google Facebook Microsoft etc What if Europe or other blocks did the same
is it meaningful to analyze funds over many (10) years? different holdings. different fiscal and monetary policies every 4 years. increasing national debt. fund managers retire and are replaced with new managers. its not just the yields that change, but everything about the fund turns over every few years. comparing a fund today with the "same" fund 10 years ago is like comparing apples and oranges. the basic definition of the data has changed. the only thing that doesn't change is the fund's trading symbol.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. US small cap had its glorious days in the past century but have been loosing a lot in the past 20 years.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear that you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small Investment, thank you Jihan Wu you're such a life saver
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Jihan Wu is also my trade analyst, he has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I just switched up my Roth IRA to 50% SCHD, 25% SCHX, 25% SCHG, and my Roth 401k is 70% vanguard S&P 500 index, 20% vanguard growth index, and 10% vanguard international index. Seeking best possible ways to grow $350k into $1m+ before retirement in 3 years.
For me its Do I have a cash fund to tide me over on the drops? Are the drops buying opportinities? and it will always come back so dont panic . So its a hard sell to promote other funds . for my money
Your cash fund that tides you over on the drops may have to last quite a few years. See minute 2:20 (6 year drop) or the drop between the early 70's and 1988. Would your cash fund last 15 years? I suspect most people's cash fund would last 1-4 years max.
@@grantedwards7357 i think 3 years is enough to outlast all but the worst of the worst if the fund is big enough in retirment i wouldnt crystallise everything just what i need after 3 years to get by for a year or so rinse/ repeat wait for the sun it will come back
One thing that also attracts people (specially in EU/UK) to SNP500 funds is relatively lower fees compared to e.g. diversified "World" and especially "All World" indices. Did your analysis include total returns (minus the fees)?
As a US investor I think US outperformance is mostly related to reserve currency status , personally I go total world small cap value ,as that currency premium is likely to wane. Lol , our days are numbered.
I have vanguard s and p vhyl and veve which overlap quite a bit so I’m heavy on mag 7 as I have Tesla apple and nvidia individually so maybe I should switch to the s and p weighted
I'm in the global MSCI. I'm betting on big successful companies continuing to be successful. That more than half are US is irrelevant to me. If the US slowly loses its dominant position then a few US companies will drop out and be replaced by companies from somewhere else. Self correcting.
@@dan-jh4mz look at CALF. It weeds out the debt riddled companies that don't have good free cash flow. It's US centric so maybe get some non US ETFs and compensate for sector allocation as many EMs are less tech heavy and geared more toward consumer and finance. Also look at beaten up sectors. Miners are hated despite record gold prices. Canada has many on the venture exchange, but only allocate very small amounts as the chance of some of them going zero is probably similar to the chance of some of them 10x'ing over the next decade.
@@AlexisMoore-nx6wf I would be careful, lots of non performancing companies in the Russell. You might want to look at subsets of the Russell like the CALF ETF that focus on profitable value small caps.
6:21 doesn't the thing you just said before about being accurate on the date ranges you're comparing apply here too? if you're comparing a sliding 10 year window but snapping each of them to the start of the year aren't you over biasing towards those dates?
I don't quite understand why I should look at a 10 year period? I probably won't hold any ETFs for more than a year or two. Inside an ISA or SIPP I can switch to different ETFs with no tax penalties. So why not just (for instance) have a core portfolio of S&P500 or Nasdaq now, and then if that starts to look more uncertain, switch to a global or quality or value or emerging market core or whatever? For instance, why would anyone well under retirement age be investing in UK or gilts, etc. when USA, Tech, AI, Crypto, Finance has shown such good performance and is likely to continue for at least the next 6 months or more? I can always switch into something else and an ETF with lots of holdings is not going to crash (except in the case of crypto!)? I can understand a more cautious approach if a person is in retirement and drawing on the portfolio, but you can always switch to more stable, lower return funds at any time. e.g. IITU Tech ETF has performed well over last 5 years. Even if IITU crashes 50% after 5 years, I would still be better off than MSCI World SWDA and x4 better off then a UK ETF such as IUKD.
Because you will misjudge the low points, miss the recovery and end up chasing media trends. If an ETF crashes 50%, that just means a 50% price reduction on your next share purchase.
Solid analysis as always. The S&P is massively overbrought, and has insane valuations but it'll probably keep pumping longer than expected because of the mechanisms/flows of passive investing. Mike Green has done a great deep dive on this with Blockworks Macro. An era of monetary inflation might change the dynamics that have been in play since 2008 that you talk about.
There is a lot of wild exuberance at the moment especially in crypto but also in tech, in general. It all feeds off each other and tech especially has helped pump up money flows into the whole S&P. Something could easily trigger a pullback to more sane valuations. A crypto crash, for example could cause a contagion problem because of leverage. Insane bets are being made in the belief the US will back the dollar with BTC.
@@nighttrain1236 crypto for the most part doesn't have issues because it's the nearest thing to a free market, and beyond speculation, it's not used for much. The nature/mechanisms of the perpetual futures market means crypto self corrects, albeit violently and without regulation. I'm more worried about government bonds in the west because we have huge debt to GDP ratios and we've designed a financial system where these bonds are the 'risk free' collateral that act as the foundation for transactions further up. Gold will probably have it hey day again (might still be a decade off, but it seems to be on par with S&P performance) because this will be the one thing that has no counterparty risk. There's a reason why Central Banks have shifted this way over holding fiat
@@chris-3 for now. I think we'll notice companies like Apple will lose traction as their total addressable is saturated. The problem with large US stocks is who will provide the exit liquidity when the trend reverses? Central banks will be forced to intervene if not careful
I've had a well diversified portfolio for decades. I live in the US and I admit it's focused heavily on US stocks. But I've got a fair chunk spread across several international funds as well. They've all done well for me. Though I admit the S&P has been on a tear these last few years. I didn't start out with an oversized investment in it, but I ended up with one. Though as part of rebalancing now that I'm retired I've pulled some of that money out of equities across the board and into good old boring bonds. I'd have rebalanced and taken some of that money out of the S&P in any case though. These days the S&P 500 is really the S&P 7 and while the returns have been great it's also volatile as you point out.
That's very interesting and useful. Your videos have been important for my understanding. The statistics that you use assume independence but are likely to be related - in periods when one is up others are likely to be up to. So, your graphs will underestimate the likelihood of differences in performance.
No you should not, unless you take the time to pick individual stocks, as obviously some companies are the future of the S&P like Palatir and Tesla especially.
Surely the S&P will do well for another 4 years with Trump!? I also have the US Mid-cap (IUSF)- which is doing better than the S&P and it contains 400+companies!
Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires, thanks Charlotte Miller
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommended Charlotte Miller, I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
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I've been in VHVG for a while and no regrets.
This was the investment video I didn't know that I needed.
Thank you, Ramin.
MSCI World is 68% US so it’s mainly S&P 500 anyway.
@george6977 you just don't gain as much when the S&P500 gains. You will feel the loss, though, because the US basically owns the stock market.
Note that in the 1970s and '80s many people had defined benefit pension, and the flow of cash going into the stock market was much less. Now the situation is very different - billions are pumping into the US stock market every day from private pension funds.
And simultaneously being withdrawn from those funds from retirees. Eventually the withdrawals will outpace the deposits driving the return down.
@@muffemod Any evidence of this? Withdrawals are gradual - retirees typically don't withdraw hundreds of thousands at once! And the US stock market is invested in by people worldwide, not just the US.
Indeed DB was prevalent, but the trustees of those schemes had to invest in equities too…
@@muffemod It's always been that way. There were only 4 investments the pension plans invested in, Equities, Bonds, Real Estate (whether direct, REIT's, or mortgages), and Treasuries.
The pensions were never just "free money". They were generally separately managed liabilities handled by different companies, whether it was outsourced or in house.
So nothing really changed anyways. The only difference is that instead of the money being put into pensions, which would then be invested into the market and other investments, they are now being put into 401K's and then being put into managed funds by the big 3 (vanguard, fidelity, schwab).
So essentially there is no difference, except that companies now pay less for retiree benefits.
@@tancreddehauteville764 Yes there is. It's been documented.
I seriously doubt that S&P 500 will plunge 26%, Reason? There is an equal market chance associated with each crash or collapse. I have seen people accumulate up to $1 million during a crisis, and even make it work in a strong economy if they are prepared and well-informed. Without a doubt, the bubble/collapse is making someone wealthy.
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, Financial Consultants are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst the covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded massively in ROI, summing up to 7-figures as of today.
There are tons of benefits to having a financial advisor, but here’s one example: My advisor based a small part of my portfolio on Nancy Pelosi’s investments, which is completely legal. That portion has gone up 71% in just six months-take that info as you will.
Oh I've heard similar things about hiring an advisor. It's hard to choose one that's very good though. Could you make some useful recommendations?
Sophia Irene Powell is the licensed advisor I use and im just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
It's hard not to continue with the S&P 500, when the largest companies in the world are contained within it.
A world index contains about 60% S&P500 companies
@kaya051285 all the upside from the all world fund is basically from the US anyway. So if that market goes down, so does the world fund.
Reflected in the buy price though.
@@kaya051285yep exactly that 👍🏼
Have you considered the whole US market, like the US Equity Index Fund? How would that compare?
Even with a global equity fund we're something like 50% in the S&P. The concentration risk certainly concerns me but I'm also concerned about the risk of having to made allocation choices myself. I think I'll retain the global equity fund with the concentration risk (in the S&P) as the lesser of two evils.
Another great episode with unmatched uniqueness
Good analysis. Well presented. Food for thought.
Another brilliant, insightful video. Thank you 🙏
Great insight. When S&P 500 is running so hot, it's always a good time to think about de-risking. I'll till more towards equal weight S&P 500 index (RSP), small cap value (AVUV), developed world ex-US (VEA) and 10-year treasury is about 4.5% and it's getting interesting to add some (TLT).
This is so interesting and helpful. I’ve been wondering why your main portfolio is a total stock market fund and I guess this is why. Your research determined that even with your investing background you decided you couldn’t outperform the market by picking stocks!
I don’t invest in the S&P500 because of past performance.
I invest in the S&P500 because 1)it’s better than leaving it to erode due to inflation.
2) leaving it in my bank account where I’ll be tempted to spend it.
3) All the top companies are listed on the US
looking forward to the sp500 Xmas rally. FTSE, not so much.
Great video as usual!
The only thing missing, and maybe it would make a very long video so it's understandable, it would be the context on why some periods are better in some regions. In my opinion, the top US stocks are no longer 'US' stocks. The world has changed and most top US companies get around 30-50% of their revenue from overseas. Some of these companies have, at present, competitive advantages due to large investments made in the past so it's hard to see how the next Microsoft will come from Europe or Asia in the near term. This could change in the long term but I think it's safe to say that American enterprises will still dominate in the medium-short term.
If an investor, follows the current trends and stays informed, shouldn'tt need to have a portfolio for 'every scenario'. Again this is just my opinion.
“Dry powder” on standby - I want a market crash and 6% interest rates. I like markets ticking up but it’s getting silly now.
The time you’ll wait for that crash to come you will miss out on returns.
It’s never a good idea to try to time the market. Time in the market is key.
Can’t remember which investment bank it was who said it, but they said that their most successful investors were the ones who had died and the bank wasn’t informed. The dead investors stayed invested and didn’t tinker around with their investments.
Just not double down during the drop period
That's a lot of green in this video for some reason...I was just in Westminster Abbey and their seasonal altar hanging - or whatever it is - color is also green for the moment... Hmmm
@ramin, transparent exposition of useful contents, as always. Sincere congratulations!
I've gone with VNRG which is basically S&P500 + Canada.
That's a very interesting metric upon which to review performance.
What a great video. I sometimes worry that, if there was a big crash in the S&P 500 (above 20%), would the other stock markets worldwide follow suit? It will also be interesting to see what happens with UK stock markets, given the proposed pension fund changes. We live in interesting times.
Most likely yes - in 2007 crash for example American took the world's equities down with it. Same in the 2000 crash. But this makes total sense because US equities are like 70% of global equities. So when they get hit every global fund takes a sh*t as well.
They all tend to follow.
“When America sneezes the world catches a cold.”
The US is king. S&p and QQQ. Don't bother with anything else.
Correct
The Ben Graham/Warren Buffet value investing strategy seems to be the best. I try to buy stock when they're cheap and pay a good dividend.
Great video as always. many thanks !! 😀🙂
Quick question… where specifically can we find the tool where for fund comparisons. Great video as always! Thanks for the advice
Thanks Ramin, great video as always!
How does this non-significant difference between countries stack up with market cap weighted portfolios? Would this not indicate you should have an equal weighted global portfolio divided equally between how many markets you include?
This is a great approach. I wish there was an app for this? I would like to do this with individual ETFs. It will take me forever to do in Excel.
Surprised with how well emerging markets have performed in comparsion over the long term
There's a long way to go from the bottom to the top, Vs already being at the top and needing to go further. Indonesia could build a dozen bullet trains but Japan already has bullet trains and equivalent transformation in speed is no longer really possible or at least easy.
Hello sir, i have so many of my company stocks from options, espp offers. Do you have a video or strategy on how to get out of single stock concentration situation? Thank you for your videos.
+1. Pretty please!
Great analysis.
I am 50/50 Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500. Doing well, but thinking of going 100 % Nasdaq 100. Most progressive and innovative companies seem to only.want to list on that Index these.days.
Workplace pensions often have limited options. Best I could find with a low ish fee is a World Ex UK one but that’s 70% US and a large and mega cap one. There’s a small cap option which isn’t as cheap I could go into for a bit at some point.
Me too, the best historical performer with my provider is the Shariah Compliant Dow Jones Titans 100, it’s quite concentrated and not the cheapest but it’s the only one I can find that invests entirely in quality US stocks with excellent past performance.
Great video!
I’m not sure how analysis of countries the way you suggested helps going forward. For eg VHVG has 6.4% Japan, France 2.6%, Switzerland 2.4% Germany 2.2%… so if any of these countries outperforms the SP500, this isn’t going to be reflected in the fund performance over 10 years, given the small percentages allocated to other countries.
You can argue that companies in S and P are already global companies and they not operate only in USA ..in that terms you can say that S&P is global fund even that is based in USA ??
Sure but there is a risk that rest of the world might not always be happy with US tech companies bleeding their economies
China doesn't allow Google Facebook Microsoft etc
What if Europe or other blocks did the same
Yep
is it meaningful to analyze funds over many (10) years? different holdings. different fiscal and monetary policies every 4 years. increasing national debt. fund managers retire and are replaced with new managers. its not just the yields that change, but everything about the fund turns over every few years. comparing a fund today with the "same" fund 10 years ago is like comparing apples and oranges. the basic definition of the data has changed. the only thing that doesn't change is the fund's trading symbol.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. US small cap had its glorious days in the past century but have been loosing a lot in the past 20 years.
Hit 240k today. Appreciate you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 24k in September 2024.,….
10 x your money in less than 2 months?
I would really love to know how much work you did put in to get to this stage
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear that you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small Investment, thank you Jihan Wu you're such a life saver
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Jihan Wu is also my trade analyst, he has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
Jihan who?
I just switched up my Roth IRA to 50% SCHD, 25% SCHX, 25% SCHG, and my Roth 401k is 70% vanguard S&P 500 index, 20% vanguard growth index, and 10% vanguard international index. Seeking best possible ways to grow $350k into $1m+ before retirement in 3 years.
For me its Do I have a cash fund to tide me over on the drops? Are the drops buying opportinities? and it will always come back so dont panic . So its a hard sell to promote other funds . for my money
Your cash fund that tides you over on the drops may have to last quite a few years. See minute 2:20 (6 year drop) or the drop between the early 70's and 1988. Would your cash fund last 15 years? I suspect most people's cash fund would last 1-4 years max.
@@grantedwards7357 i think 3 years is enough to outlast all but the worst of the worst if the fund is big enough in retirment i wouldnt crystallise everything just what i need after 3 years to get by for a year or so rinse/ repeat wait for the sun it will come back
One thing that also attracts people (specially in EU/UK) to SNP500 funds is relatively lower fees compared to e.g. diversified "World" and especially "All World" indices. Did your analysis include total returns (minus the fees)?
hi, what is the market code for your type of S&P500?
Past performance is not a guarantee for future returns!
Completely different times and companies in the 70s, 80s, 90s and so on...
Even in a well diversified global fund, over three quarters are dominated by the USA?!?
So basically buy a cheap global index fund, and pepper on top a bit of US small cap value.
As a US investor I think US outperformance is mostly related to reserve currency status , personally I go total world small cap value ,as that currency premium is likely to wane. Lol , our days are numbered.
I have vanguard s and p vhyl and veve which overlap quite a bit so I’m heavy on mag 7 as I have Tesla apple and nvidia individually so maybe I should switch to the s and p weighted
I'm in the global MSCI. I'm betting on big successful companies continuing to be successful. That more than half are US is irrelevant to me. If the US slowly loses its dominant position then a few US companies will drop out and be replaced by companies from somewhere else. Self correcting.
What are some small cap value etfs? I take it the Vanguard all world small cap fund is not small cap value?
@@dan-jh4mz look at CALF. It weeds out the debt riddled companies that don't have good free cash flow. It's US centric so maybe get some non US ETFs and compensate for sector allocation as many EMs are less tech heavy and geared more toward consumer and finance. Also look at beaten up sectors. Miners are hated despite record gold prices. Canada has many on the venture exchange, but only allocate very small amounts as the chance of some of them going zero is probably similar to the chance of some of them 10x'ing over the next decade.
How the weird portfolio is made?
Got it. All in on US small caps.
@@AlexisMoore-nx6wf I would be careful, lots of non performancing companies in the Russell. You might want to look at subsets of the Russell like the CALF ETF that focus on profitable value small caps.
6:21 doesn't the thing you just said before about being accurate on the date ranges you're comparing apply here too?
if you're comparing a sliding 10 year window but snapping each of them to the start of the year aren't you over biasing towards those dates?
no
I don't quite understand why I should look at a 10 year period? I probably won't hold any ETFs for more than a year or two. Inside an ISA or SIPP I can switch to different ETFs with no tax penalties. So why not just (for instance) have a core portfolio of S&P500 or Nasdaq now, and then if that starts to look more uncertain, switch to a global or quality or value or emerging market core or whatever? For instance, why would anyone well under retirement age be investing in UK or gilts, etc. when USA, Tech, AI, Crypto, Finance has shown such good performance and is likely to continue for at least the next 6 months or more? I can always switch into something else and an ETF with lots of holdings is not going to crash (except in the case of crypto!)? I can understand a more cautious approach if a person is in retirement and drawing on the portfolio, but you can always switch to more stable, lower return funds at any time. e.g. IITU Tech ETF has performed well over last 5 years. Even if IITU crashes 50% after 5 years, I would still be better off than MSCI World SWDA and x4 better off then a UK ETF such as IUKD.
Hindsight investment is really easy
I hope your crystal ball works well so that you know when to sell one fund and buy another. Chances are you will end up buying high and selling low
The question to ask is: why do so many smart institutional investors hold stocks other than US, or US tech? They can also see the recent returns.
@@rezwhapNote the word core in my comment
Because you will misjudge the low points, miss the recovery and end up chasing media trends. If an ETF crashes 50%, that just means a 50% price reduction on your next share purchase.
Solid analysis as always. The S&P is massively overbrought, and has insane valuations but it'll probably keep pumping longer than expected because of the mechanisms/flows of passive investing. Mike Green has done a great deep dive on this with Blockworks Macro. An era of monetary inflation might change the dynamics that have been in play since 2008 that you talk about.
There is a lot of wild exuberance at the moment especially in crypto but also in tech, in general. It all feeds off each other and tech especially has helped pump up money flows into the whole S&P. Something could easily trigger a pullback to more sane valuations. A crypto crash, for example could cause a contagion problem because of leverage. Insane bets are being made in the belief the US will back the dollar with BTC.
Yes, but the US companies keep increasing their revenues and profits. So the valuations seem to be justified, at least for now.
@@nighttrain1236 crypto for the most part doesn't have issues because it's the nearest thing to a free market, and beyond speculation, it's not used for much. The nature/mechanisms of the perpetual futures market means crypto self corrects, albeit violently and without regulation. I'm more worried about government bonds in the west because we have huge debt to GDP ratios and we've designed a financial system where these bonds are the 'risk free' collateral that act as the foundation for transactions further up. Gold will probably have it hey day again (might still be a decade off, but it seems to be on par with S&P performance) because this will be the one thing that has no counterparty risk. There's a reason why Central Banks have shifted this way over holding fiat
@@chris-3 for now. I think we'll notice companies like Apple will lose traction as their total addressable is saturated. The problem with large US stocks is who will provide the exit liquidity when the trend reverses? Central banks will be forced to intervene if not careful
I've had a well diversified portfolio for decades. I live in the US and I admit it's focused heavily on US stocks. But I've got a fair chunk spread across several international funds as well. They've all done well for me. Though I admit the S&P has been on a tear these last few years. I didn't start out with an oversized investment in it, but I ended up with one. Though as part of rebalancing now that I'm retired I've pulled some of that money out of equities across the board and into good old boring bonds. I'd have rebalanced and taken some of that money out of the S&P in any case though. These days the S&P 500 is really the S&P 7 and while the returns have been great it's also volatile as you point out.
Nasdaq 100 is actually more global than the S&P 500 in terms of revenues
So VHVG then...
Should listen to MHR this week.
Keep Buying
That's very interesting and useful. Your videos have been important for my understanding. The statistics that you use assume independence but are likely to be related - in periods when one is up others are likely to be up to. So, your graphs will underestimate the likelihood of differences in performance.
3x S&P 500 Fund. SPXL 👍
Terrible idea - the House always wins with leveraged funds because the drawdowns are mathematically going to wipe you out.
I put 80k into VUSA, and now I have £110k.
It would have been £120k but for the pound strengthening. I hadn’t considered the forex variable.
No you should not, unless you take the time to pick individual stocks, as obviously some companies are the future of the S&P like Palatir and Tesla especially.
Surely the S&P will do well for another 4 years with Trump!? I also have the US Mid-cap (IUSF)- which is doing better than the S&P and it contains 400+companies!
18 minutes is too long. Can someone give me a one sentence summary?
Buy low sell high.
Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires, thanks Charlotte Miller
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
The very first time we tried, we invested $1400 and after a week, we received $5230. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommended Charlotte Miller, I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
Just buy Bitcoin
I like bitcoin but I don't like the spam.
That bitcoin relies upon people like you promoting it like an MLM, like a crowd-sourced pump & dump, tells me to stay away.
I have some but best not to put one's entire portfolio into it
High volatility and it's only for speculative positions.