Hello you beauties. Access all episodes 10 hours earlier than RUclips by Subscribing on Spotify - spoti.fi/2LSimPn or Apple Podcasts - apple.co/2MNqIgw. Here’s the timestamps: 00:00 Are There Patterns to History? 08:51 If History Can’t Be Repeated, is it Just BS? 17:54 Why You Shouldn’t Compare Great Historical Empires 23:10 How To Learn from History More Effectively 30:18 How the Printing Press Created the Information Revolution 36:58 Areas of History We Don’t Know Enough About 48:00 Niall’s Thoughts on the 2024 Presidential Election 57:32 Where to Find Niall Ferguson
I've seen his docu's about money and it was very interesting, not entirely true though, as he leaves out much like that banks were not an Italian city states invention, it was a re-invention of the temple's financial function from the ancient Greeks and Romans. He then contributes the French Orient Company's stock crisis to John Lock, which isn't exactly true. The problem was the big influx of international money into the stocks and then financial mismanagement by the French King. Similar his notion that the printing of money was cause of the Weimar inflation is wrong. It was not the money printing that caused the hyperinflation, it was the communist revolution or rather it's decisions to first default on the debt taking out international borrowing and then confiscating 10% of every citizen's assets that destroyed confidence in government and the rest is just a consequence from that. Subsequently he got the Great Depression wrong. The Great Depression started not from the '29 wall street crash, that was just a typical market correction of 60% that we see roughly once every decade..... it was the bond investors that pulled out of the bond markets that started in Austria in '31, leading all developed nation governments to issue bankruptcy like domino bricks as they couldn't kick the fan down the road, a very similar situation we find our own governments in today and it's a guarantee that this monetary system is gonna fail in the same way, the only question is when, not if. And seeing the amount of social decay in the west which usually happens 10-15 year before the fall, I'd say we'd have another 10 years max. So I wouldn't necessarily take financial advice from a journalist; even one of the old stamp that actually does a little bit of research, contrary to the political activists we call journalists today.
it's not that simple it's that the incentives are the same so there's no reason to change the behaviour even if you know the "final" outcome is "bad"' (and still what does bad mean? bad for who bad for how long) there's usualy a lot of parties that are invested in a system (more than you would think) change is hard and VERY unpredictable let's say you know the outcome is bad so you change your action how long will your system endure "bad" for a "good" outcome? (what you realisticly need is to try some stuff and see what happens and when you finily figured out something the surcumstances have changed and it's no longer viable) will you lose power? wilkl you even be able to finish the proces?
@@stijnvdv2 I don't really understand how financial stuff like that works. Pretend you were elected tomorrow...What would you do to try to prevent an economic disaster, or lessen the blow, if possible?
@@serpentines6356 it's not possible to prevent what is coming. We 've crossed the Rubicon on that years ago. The problem we face here is sovereign debt. Governments are broke everywhere and just kick the can down the road by issuing new devt to pay the old ones, similar to how you'd use one creditcard to pay off the other. The bom will go off great depression style when the bond investor is gonna pull back and stop buying new bonds. That has already happened in the EU and Japan, they only extended that by letting the central banks take over the function of bond investors, but that too willbe final as interests are rising and the balance sheet of the ECB as well as other banks like that of Japan to blow up in the politician's faces. You can only extent the rubberband so much bedore it snaps. It won't happen tomorrow, but in roughly the time span of the next 10 years. Poloticians know this, hence their mentall illness and obsession about the 'green new mcommunist misery' aganda 2030.
100s of thousands of illegal uncertifiable ghost votes in the AZ audit and constitution broken all over the country. keep denying reality in front of your face as you defen authoritarians and pretend to be impartial and objective on these issues...
0:00: 📚 History is unpredictable and non-linear, and we should learn lessons from it accordingly. 9:06: 🔄 History does not repeat itself in a cyclical manner due to the unpredictable nature of technological innovation and random disasters. 13:22: 📚 The idea that history repeats itself or follows a predictable cycle is comforting but not accurate, as demonstrated by economists' failed predictions and the flawed models used to project future outcomes. 19:30: 📚 History is a valuable tool for understanding the future, but drawing analogies from past empires is hazardous and there is no sure way to predict the decline and fall of an empire. 25:38: 📚 The 17th century and the printing press can provide more insights into our time than the mid-20th century and World War II. 31:40: 📚 The printing press had unintended consequences, such as the spread of both religious reform and witchcraft hysteria. 38:35: 📚 The lack of worldliness and historical knowledge in America contributes to myopia in conversations, and time travel through reading history is the closest thing we have to time machines. 44:28: ⏳ The speaker discusses the limitations of time travel and the impact of lost historical knowledge, using examples of Afghanistan and Scotland. 51:12: 🔮 The speaker predicts that if Biden becomes the nominee and Trump is re-elected, the left will refuse to acknowledge the result, leading to political instability in the United States. 56:34: 📚 The speaker suggests that arguments about double standards will have a greater impact than arguments about the 2020 election being stolen, and explains why Biden could be a weak candidate for re-election and Trump could get reelected. Recap by Tammy AI
History of which the relevant part is 'story' seems to be tales of what is called the past, and you seem to struggle with tenses and language generally. It is axiomatic or a definitional impossibility that none can" predict" the past "
Leaders, generals and admirals would be nothing if there were not a huge mob of people who would follow and support them or just obey orders and do as everybody else and kill and be killed by the millions. The problem in history has always been the mob of ignorant followers, or 'the people' as i think they are called today.
There is a ellipsis here which misleads. The 'history of human behaviour' teaches us about human behaviour. The 'history of mathematics', for example, doesn't (much).
But do we actually know how to properly identify the despots? In this day and age, it seems rather unlikely, if not impossible. But here's a hint for you: All despots emerge from the Left or Far Right. Trump is on the Right. Democrats are on the Left, and they employ tactics which are common among both the Far Left and the Far Right. The edges are extremists, and the Democrats have one foot on the patio of extremism. The Far Right are Antifa - NOT Trump.
...except for all the political leaders, despots, generals and admirals who behaved in completely different ways. History only teaches us about human behaviour in the most shallow and impractical way.
It is really amazing how the world has remembered historians the last two years. And it is really a pity such people were not "mainstream" a few years ago. We enjoyed every minute of this one!
@@wolfgang-franzkranek6146 i agree hes a TV book deal personality like Douglas Murray .anybody after examining the history behind the Ukraine debacle that comes up with the Russians are the evil ones with rusting weapons is not an historian that i would take seriously
Anyone that sees my post here should read any books by David McCullough. Every one of his books is interesting and brings out the humanity of the people he talks about.
Indeed, he is just another propagandist of Chatham House. One of the a*holes we have to thank for the Ukraine war and other conflicts. Niall Ferguson: In Syria, as elsewhere, US military might is the best available means of preventing crimes against humanity. 🤣
I know, he is such an overstimated historian. He started as a good expert of economic transformations in 19th century but he lost his way when he went into things he knows nothing.
Chris, great interview! Niall, very educational! During the Cuban missile crisis, we all owed the avoidance of WWIII to a very honorable heroic Russian officer who refused to fire a nuclear torpedo at American destroyers who were depth charging his submarine. The man was punished by his government, GOD BLESS HIM!
Who told you about "heroic Russian officer,,," and why do you believe hem? When studying men (human beings) it quickly becomes apparent that the accept without question or believe, passively mechanically faute de mieux and to believe what they*want* to believe. Their predisposition to believe and to be passive are probably their greatest weakness both severally and jointly; if A tells them something and B and C tell them the same thing the will swear blind that it is true and cannot be otherwise although they could not possibly have verified it for themselves - they default to belief or passive acceptance without question, and perhaps most astonishing of all they will believe because they suppose others so believe or suppose there to be a democracy of truth known as the falacy argumentum ad populum, which are the hallmarks of the halfwit. "Oh but *most people*.....," they bleat
@@Doxsein To what is at is it relevant that the story about the Russian officer is documented? Naively charming though you Elsies' faith in documents may be , you plainly cannot understand that hearsay in writing or documents is still hearsay. It is utterly irrelevant to the truth or falsity of a story that it appears in a document which is not some sort of white man's magic imparting truthfulness to what is otherwise no more than a story and hearsay, although it is one of the hallmarks of the lower classes(Elsies) that they suppose there to be a democracy of truth aka the fallacy argumentum ad populum, which is a fallacy of relevance and suppose writing or documents to be a form of magic.
NO, because that key chronological point would force folk to think about the actual narrative.@@seanmoran2743 Whether it be the the Soviet Union or modern day Russia, the "west" is consistent in its behaviour, and hasn't changed much at all.
What a thrill to hear this discussion with Ferguson. I have followed his work for years. So fresh, pertinent and informative. He makes you think intelligently. Thank- you
He is just another shill and propagandist of Chatham House. One of the a*holes we have to thank for the Ukraine war and other conflicts. Niall Ferguson: In Syria, as elsewhere, US military might is the best available means of preventing crimes against humanity. 🤣
Fascinating Niall Ferguson interview, as always, and I feel like you brought the best out of him. It would be interesting to ask him about the World Economic Forum if you have him on again, as he seems like a trustworthy and down-to-earth person with some insight into an often-mistrusted organisation.
Great session. Agree or disagree with Mr. Ferguson, you cannot but be impressed with his erudition and depth of thoughtfulness. He is undoubtedly a conservative but at least he is honest. Well done Chris.
not really 'lucky' - these guys are doing the thinking of what we would expect from Journalists who are no longer at the NYT, WP, Fox, BBC, ABC, CDE etc.
God, what a refreshing conversation. I read quite a bit of history, but I'm realizing that I've been looking at the past through a pinhole. My perspective is suddenly shifting and I'm almost giddy. More please!
You hit the nail on the head there, that’s quite an epiphany, what happened to us listening to expert opinion and at what point were we forced to listen to irrelevant presenters with very little knowledge giving us their opinions, what’s more giving their opinions as if it was the facts and nothing else should be considered
Wow, you got Niall Ferguson. Love the conversation. Please get Warren Farrell and Christina Hoff Summers to dive into what is happening in our society with educating young men and boys and feminism gone off track. Thank you. Love your videos, you really put a lot of effort into them. Much appreciated! 🙏☕️👌
I do hope Niall really does his EMPIRES as next big project. We had a teacher that finished our grade 9 curriculum on the Nazis 1 week early just so she could squeeze in the horrors of Communism on her own volition. It did wonders for us, expanding our understanding and built up our resistance against utopian ideas, so easily fallen into by young minds. Learning about all the other empires would do the same for the ages of conquest.
@@metgirl5429 That's true... I had 3x terrible, grumpy, short-fused math teachers in a row in my last three years of school and I never qualified for engineering at a tertiary institute. In spite of getting B's in physics, I could never constantly hit C's in math... those teachers were worth their weight in concrete boots.
@@schalkvandermerwe3838From your name, I think you grew up in the same country as I. I was at school in the 70s and also had fantastic history teachers. As you say, I also had a well rounded history on all the forms of totalitarianism by engaged and interesting teachers, therefore developing resistance against utopianism and a love of learning about all history and how it has shaped the world. But also two terrible maths teachers in early high school who were instrumental in it becoming a struggle all the way to matric and then something to be avoided in later life. A great loss.
@@freebird7017 - oh wow, yes math teachers. Same story. So sad. Had a great teacher with a lot of patience in grade 10, who had to move 1/2 way through the year to give business economics, because they could find another math teacher, but not business ec. Grade 10.5 was a mess. 11-12 were short tempered aggressive teachers. I never recovered even though I loved math.
Ferguson’s interpretation of history and how it coheres with modern events is well explained and makes a lot of sense. Similarities exist in history, but there are just too many factors in any particular event that may just turn the tides. I don’t know about Ferguson before this interview but now I am going to follow this bright historian
I think one of the biggest assumptions that our forebears made at the end of The Great War and the The Second World War was that people would inherently understand the evils of how fascism and communism had sept their way into causing the rise of the Nazis, and later the USSR although its seeds were prevalent in those times. And in fact, the educational establishments at the higher end were being subsumed by communism, and the lower end of school was looking to reform education. Eventually, we ended up with an education across The West which lightly touched on the dangers of those ways of thinking, without really explaining it to the students, and so modern people know that the Nazis and the Soviets were "the bad guys," but recognising how they come about and how they act in society isn't understood. And so, in turn, we end up inadvertently repeating history. Western education sorely needs reform, and this is a precise example of why, along with other issues.
Departments of education and all levels of education have been overrun by leftists and liberals. Not credibly debatable. Unfortunately, these people want to tell others what to do, but are practical fools themselves. Must teach oneself, do not surrender reason at the door.
Thanks Chris. I've been reading and listening to this man for twenty years, he brings such value to my understanding of the world. Thank you so much for getting him on and engaging him in such a rewarding interview.
What an absolutely cracking interview between a genuinely inquisitive canny Geordie lad, and a Goodfellow of global renown. The depth and scope of his responses reflects the respect he had for your erudite and probing questions. Well done lads; the best hour of listening I've had for a while. Mick the Hick in sunny Northumberland.😋
This is good, but surely history DOES tend to repeat itself if you forget its lessons? I see so many similarities in what is happening today and in recent decades, with things that have happened previously in history, and seemingly on mulitple instances! The same problems occur due to the adoption of same types of policies designed to tackle the same types of original problems, again and again throughout history. At the least, there are striking similarities.
One of the best videos on one of the best channels. Ferguson is one of my favourite historians. His emphasis on the possible and the contingent leads to some brilliant insights.
Looking forward to listening. I've always enjoy his talks and intereviews. Perhaps the Missus will be next up? She is an absolute powerhouse and has so much to teach and share.
Great episode. My favorite part is at 17:55, when chris says "give me two examples..." while subconsciously squeezing 2 imaginary bazoongas for 5 seconds straight
Peter Turchin provides the most scientific approach to evaluating history. While we can’t “predict” the future, we can read history scientifically no different than the way we study any other living thing.
This channel is one of the top contributors in my perosnal and intellectual growth. I adore Chris' curiousity and his brilliant guests! Thank you so much buddy! God bless.
There's a beautiful channel ran by a PhD in military history called Schwerpunkt that delves into such political and social topis at length. Admittedly the content is not for everyone but it's mind-blowing to say the least
Amazing to hear so many words and sentences spoken so eloquently, yet saying nothing of substance. This proves that historians would make great politicians.
Great interview. Not only do too many people read history as a novel, there are too many people who think they can write the future as a novel! If more people understood the ‘forking paths’ in history then they might better understand the need to make well informed decisions now. Or, to put it another way, maybe the fact that most people don’t understand the ‘forking paths’ of history explains why most people don’t see the need to make well informed decisions now.
I found this video very interesting but not as you might expect. As a kid I didn’t enjoy history at school and dropped the subject as quickly as I could. As an adult I love learning about history - warts and all. I was in school from the late 60’s to the early 80’s and teaching was very different. This struck me a good few years ago when I went to a parent’s evening at my daughter’s school. I was struck by how dedicated and devoted the teachers were, something I only remember from a handful of my teachers. I think more is understood about the mechanisms of learning today than when I was at school ( autism wasn’t even fully accepted as a credible diagnosis back then!). However, teachers are now more restricted in what they are expected to teach, particularly in history. So we now have great teachers but a poor curriculum which seems crazy to me. I am so glad that my daughter has inherited my enquiring mind and has been taught to learn properly by her teachers ( she is now 25 and on a wonderful career path). I have always taught her to accept nothing and test everything - great video.
It is like finding that missing piece of the jigsaw puzzle, how intriguing to discover by the suggestion that we overlook the obvious by omission of the obvious. Thank you Niall Ferguson for reminding me that history is the sum of all parts and not just the few that gain popularity. Such a real and admirable fellow. Well presented Chris I will subscribe to your feed.
Something repeating over time doesn't inherently imply that it is somehow exactly predictable. Can you really deny that humans repeatedly make the same kind of mistakes over and over again over the course of history?
I think it's the essence of human nature that means we keep on doing the same thing, unsuccessfully. In that case the repeatability is real and is understandable. The result of the American lead regime change in Libya was entirely predictable, well it didn't surprise me. It has been no more successful than the removal of the Saddam Hussein regime.
Morning Chris - hope you are well. Long time listener, first time commenting. I enjoy your show it makes great background for the gym, driving and studying. I really appreciate you introducing me to Niall through this podcast. What a fascinating conversation. That's actually why I've decided to comment. I've realised this might be useful feedback: The episodes I love most are the ones that make me feel like part of the conversation even though I haven't said anything. If that's helpful let me know and I'll try and break down what I mean in more detail. If not - no worries. Please get Niall back as soon as it's convenient to you both. I'd love to hear you both discuss aspects of history that your both passionate and interested in.
Naill has been commenting in a credible and very listenable way for a long time, I particulary liked his thesis that China was rampant and the history of the world was inevitably heading east and the west was in terminal decline ... funny how an alternate history translates into an alternate reality - sometimes you're the pigeon and sometimes you're the statue 😉
Great topic, it's nice to hear about something different than the gender issues. For this topic I can add that: We look at the past, through the eyes of the present. And that the story changes every time it's repeated, just like the chilhood parlor game, where you line up the children, and make them wisper a word to the kid next to them, and then pass it on to the next, and that word will be completely different that the original word, every time. We used to call it the telephone game or the rumors game. I call that historical distortion, as in the story changes, every time it's repeated.
We called it purple monkey dishwasher and it’s imo a very important game to play with kids maybe it plays a part in critical thinking development? 🤔 just spitballing here
I agree with your statement about the repeat, in that, events may not repeat. However given certain circumstances, people respond in very predictable actions. Therefore, it is not the event that repeats itself; it is the population that repeats itself following similar events.
Just thinking back to my history lessons I realise that about the only history I never learnt about at school was 1935 onwards. Junior school gave me an overview from neanderthal man to 19th century. I learnt industrial revolution at 16 and Tudors and Stuarts at 18. I was taught the many of the facts of slavery. I am so grateful to my teachers who could range though the past and encouraged discussion. Note I am 66. My general education throughout all subjects was general rather than in depth so showed me lots of doors that I could go through to study in depth.
I’m in the US and was in high school in the 80s…..and we never would get past WWII….June would come, the school year end. I finally asked after my junior year if we were going to discuss after WWII, Vietnam, etc…..and was told there was just too much history, not enough time, etc. In college took US History 1945 to present, which helped me understand what happened after WWII, how we went from being allies with Russia during the war to enemies, etc. Of course today with the access of the internet, you can easily learn about whatever you want.
In junior primary school we learnt about the age of exploration, Vascoda Gama, Columbus etc, and the empires of South America. Upper primary school we learntabout Australian history, and how it was influenced by British and American history. Junior highschool we did the Middle Ages, renaissance, the reformation and the English civil war, and the American and French Revolution, and the unification of nations following the Napoleonic wars. We spent one term on the twentieth century. In senior highschool history was broken into ancient and modern history and were not compulsory though I did both. By the time my kids went to school history had been replaced with Aboriginal studies and universities warned there was no point studying history as now that it would never again be taught in schools it had limited work prospects. So now we've had thirty years of no history being taught in schools or universities.
History will repeat, to the extent that Human nature is bound by it's own Limitiations : Ego, Vision, Innovation, Power struggles, Fears, Love, mommy complex etc. Oh and also, that there are Ruling Elites that Love to repeat the cycles of history, that which transferred the wealth of the masses, back to them.
What is happening today is completely unique. The fall of the West is comparable to the mouse utopia experiment in the sense that a cabal of communist mice have actively encouraged the mouse population to embrace destructive and degenerate behaviour. This cabal of Cultural Marxist mice have also swung open the cage door, and encouraged mice from all of the other cages in the lab [failed cages] to pour into the one and only high-functioning mouse society that existed. 1/
The systematic deconstruction and annihilation of 'white Christian mouse hegemonic oppression' was helped in part by a small group of Marxist mice in the corner of the cage who were screeching about the societal decline being a product of nihilism, hedonism, decadence, and overabundance. 2/
The fall of the West is also comparable to the fall of the Roman Empire in the sense that the Roman Senate inexplicably began overthrowing all of Roman hegemonic oppression. All Roman-controlled regions were to be viewed as hostile to 'POC'. The whole Roman nation-state was ordered to throw open its gates, and allow 'minority' populations to gain intersectional and ethnic dominance. And all Christians were to be purged. The Roman Empire was full on cancelling itself from existence [just like the West is today]. 3/
This cancellation of the West is fueled by the incredible success of Western civilization. The more high-functioning and wealthy that the West became, the more that communists [Cultural Marxists] were driven to destroy. No other civilization in history has experience this type of internal attack. 4/
An good counterpoint & compliment to this guest would be Professor Joseph Tainter author of ‘The Collapse of Complex societies’ he’s an archaeologist so he tends to deal in longer runs of time than the average historian.He also goes into details of how you can tell when an Empire is on the skids.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" does not mean "history repeats itself." I don't know why he treated it like they meant the same things.
Here is how lex fridman would conduct this interview: "What is history?" (He gives a great answer) ”is that good?" (He gives a great answer) "If history was an object, what shape would it be" (He gives a great answer) "Is that good or bad?"
I've pretty much always thought to myself that it would be interesting if someone made a TV series about historic events going differently, alternative histories, and so on. Like the timelines shift, events change, people who died young/early live longer and people who lived to old age die young, the victors of wars and battles become the losers and vice versa, etc. Like Kennedy/Lincoln live to old age, Rome never collapses, Gandhi was never born, Charlemagne died as a child, Carthage defeats Rome, the Axis powers win WW2, Homo sapiens are eradicated by Neanderthal, Slavery was abolished without a civil war and on and on. That sort of stuff. I guess maybe kind of like Quantum Leap meets Twilight Zone meets Man in the High Castle, etc.
@@dumdum8880 Ah, yeah. I'm a subscriber. I love that channel. And that's how I first discovered it a few years ago - I was probably thinking about this exact thought and I wondered if there were any channels, videos or series like that on RUclips and Whatifalthist was the first result. I remember thinking it was cool how it pretty much perfectly meshed with that thought - like, at the time, I thought it was sort of a semi-unique thought lol. But yeah I mean, that kind of scratches that itch - like in an educational/documentary form - which is cool, I love that kind of stuff. But it would also be super cool if they'd make a scripted series like that. Maybe each season could be like a specific era or just multiple episodes depicting different versions of the same event or person's life or whatever - or, maybe each episode skips around randomly on topics/subjects. I don't know - I've just always thought that could be cool. That seems to be similar to a fairly popular sub-genre - like Twilight Zone or Black Mirror or something where each episode is like a short standalone movie or, maybe kind of like American Horror Story - where each episode of the season is connected but each season is a new story.
It might not be a TV series, but Ferguson wrote a book with about 11 other historians on different 'what might have been' scenarios, called Virtual History, if that might be of interest?
Trying to get to a better understanding is worth the effort. If we don't care enough to pursue the understanding without bias freedom will be taken from us.
Oh, FFS. Anybody who still believes that the reason we invaded Iraq has ANYTHING to do with "spreading democracy" should IMMEDIATELY be treated with contempt.
He has a certain way of going from rational to strange assumptions that certainly make him popular but to a historian he is a pop culture icon not to be very influential to the specialists.
I have never heard of this man before but I was really pleased with the discussion. He offers a very clear picture while trying to be objective and not very political. Well spoken, sir!!
Fun fact: with the exception of The Very Hungry Caterpillar, Nialls book about the British empire is the only book I've read cover to cover more than once.
Niall Ferguson has the most extraordinary memory recall I've ever witnessed, he has an incredible mind. The greatest historian of our generation. I recommend watching the debates he took part of, from the Annual Meeting of Yalta European Strategy (Victor Pinchuk Foundation).
Disrupting the peaceful transfer of power, and trying to install a candidate that lost an election, all involving violence and coercion is equivalent to an insurrection in my book.
What is happening today is completely unique. The fall of the West is comparable to the mouse utopia experiment in the sense that a cabal of communist mice have actively encouraged the mouse population to embrace destructive and degenerate behaviour. This cabal of Cultural Marxist mice have also swung open the cage door, and encouraged mice from all of the other cages in the lab [failed cages] to pour into the one and only high-functioning mouse society that existed. 1/
The systematic deconstruction and annihilation of 'white Christian mouse hegemonic oppression' was helped in part by a small group of Marxist mice in the corner of the cage who were screeching about the societal decline being a product of nihilism, hedonism, decadence, and overabundance. 2/
The fall of the West is also comparable to the fall of the Roman Empire in the sense that the Roman Senate inexplicably began overthrowing all of Roman hegemonic oppression. All Roman-controlled regions were to be viewed as hostile to 'POC'. The whole Roman nation-state was ordered to throw open its gates, and allow 'minority' populations to gain intersectional and ethnic dominance. And all Christians were to be purged. The Roman Empire was full on cancelling itself from existence [just like the West is today]. 3/
This cancellation of the West is fueled by the incredible success of Western civilization. The more high-functioning and wealthy that the West became, the more that communists [Cultural Marxists] were driven to destroy. No other civilization in history has experience this type of internal attack. 4/
Fun term; "momentum of Retro perspective" Your perspective generates momentum in a certain direction. One can only predict actions based on an understanding of perspective. "The only real choice you have is the angle in which you see a thing." Changing that will inevitably change how you act/interact. So future and historical predictions and patterns can only be predicted on a personal level to which cannot be done with those that are no longer among the living.
I've watched/read a lot of Niall's work over the years. But I can't believe he can state that people only lived to 20 years - he MUST know that this is not true, therefore his anti-BS sure wasn't working at this point. Simple examples - Marcus Aurelius died at 59 due to the plague [therefore could've lived a lot longer], Socrates was 71 when he died - due to drinking poison [so again, could've lived another 10-15yrs]. Aristotle got to 62 [natural causes] and Plato died at age 80 [natural causes]. If you take out childhood mortality [majority of children died under 5] then the human lifespan hasn't changed in millennia. There's evidence that hunter-gatherers were far more healthy than us [from analysis of bones/teeth] and that they could live long lives too. Childhood mortality dropped mainly as a result of increases in sanitation [not advances in medicine] . For some history of that have a read about the tragic story of Ignaz Semmelweis. Instead of increased lifespan in our current time, we're experiencing the opposite. Lifespan is declining. Part of that is 'deaths of despair' but the majority of the decline is due to 'diseases of civilisation'. In particular, the drastic changes to our diet over the last 50-odd years. Big pharma wants us to think that lifespan is increasing - due to popping their pills of course - but that's total BS. Surprised that Niall would make such a statement about people living to 20.
He actually said (around 10:35) "in the twenties", which it mostly was on average. Of course the average included many dying in childhood, and very few living to advanced age. He never said or implied that people died at exactly 20.
History is thematic and if there is any rhyme to it...I think it falls primarily on themes related to the human condition and our constant struggle with virtue, vice, order and chaos. I'm reading Lewis Lapham's "The Wish for Kings" where just 10 pages in, he drops enormous clarity into the US Political System, beautifully illustrating the chronic abuse of our democracy by those in power using the 1992 Presidential election as an example. Brilliant writing!
The Left accusing the Right of cheating didn't start in 2016, though, I am very glad you corrected Neil on the point of what happens when one Party does that. One Party did. The Dems, also, did it in 2000 with Al Gore in the Presidential election. Then, there's Stacy Abrams who insisted for years that she won the Governor's race. Wonderful interview. I learned things and found it most enjoyable, too.
I’ve always thought of history as cyclical, but not so precise so that you can predict the next 10 years. For example empires are founded, grow strong, expand, overextend, become degenerate, then collapse. You can’t say whether that will happen of 50 years or 1000 years. On the larger timescale, technological capabilities expand, there’s a massive civilization collapse, and portions of the technology are lost for very long periods of time. You can’t say whether will happen over a few thousand years or 10,000+ years. With economists, the ones that win awards and get published, etc. are the ones who push narratives the governing regime wants to hear. To the extent there are accurate/honest ones working for private high-stakes gambling syndicates, they’d never be allowed to make their predictions public, because that would ruin their employer’s advantage.
As an admirer and apologist of Henry Kissinger, Mr.Ferguson seems he would like for history to repeat itself.Kissinger replaced democracies and replaced them with dictatorships.
I'm so amazed that this highly intelligent man, Niall Fergusson, whom I've always admired so much... 1) believes Russia is a pile of rusty military equipment that is trying to regain its empire. when a) border disputes, however fair or unfair or wrong-headed, have nothing to do with empire building. Whereas, for the US and UK to invade a country across an ocean divide (like Iraq) most definitely is empire building. Wanting to convert people on the other side of the world to Christianity and your idea of governance as in centuries gone by is empire building. b) the Russian economy went from third world basket case (under the drunken Yeltsin) to a first-world country,. having doubled the GDP again and again and is the only country that doesn't run a deficit. This fact alone makes the currrent Russian elader the greatest leader the world has ever seen.
Thank you. Great interview. I recently discovered your channel and find your style of interviewing to be informative and your guests quite thought provoking.
The guy is a Stanford (IIRC) professor, a best-selling author and a prominent public speaker and commentator. What makes you think you'd never see him on a mainstream podcast?
I can listen to Niall for hours and hours and often do. I have a celebrity crush on him and wish that we somehow could develop a political system that appealed to and incentivized folks like him to enter politics.
what were the particular lessons you had in mind? wwII was not the defining moment for the generations to come. yes nuclear mutual annihilation being possible was one outcome. but most of history prior to wwII shaped our lives far more (e.g. industrialization, workers rights hard fought for, the power of the scientific method and the technological advances that came from it and increased real power. the ideas of freedom of speech that preclude censorship (censorship of all forms, we can't have our cake and eat it)
@@elcapitan6126 the shock and horror of the murder of the prisoners that the Germans killed was not downplayed in any way. I watched documentaries about the concentration camps as a child. We never hushed it up. They showed the white emaciated dead bodies dumped into holes in the ground. Anyone with any sense thought this would never happen again.
That makes sense. When the old guard dies off, new generations that never experienced an event will not use it as a learning point. Our personal experiences are most powerful in shaping worldview.
the point is if you focus on one aspect of one time period you won't learn anything either and will repeat other mistakes even more tragic (e.g. nuclear arms race, runaway capitalism, ignoring productive economic activities in favor of profit seeking, return to feudalism and the ingredients that lead to harsh revolutions.
@kathyorourke9273 did you also recall the burning alive of a city nearing the end of WWII? did you think about the millions of men that died at the hands of statesmen in their board rooms across the world?
Hello you beauties. Access all episodes 10 hours earlier than RUclips by Subscribing on Spotify - spoti.fi/2LSimPn or Apple Podcasts - apple.co/2MNqIgw. Here’s the timestamps:
00:00 Are There Patterns to History?
08:51 If History Can’t Be Repeated, is it Just BS?
17:54 Why You Shouldn’t Compare Great Historical Empires
23:10 How To Learn from History More Effectively
30:18 How the Printing Press Created the Information Revolution
36:58 Areas of History We Don’t Know Enough About
48:00 Niall’s Thoughts on the 2024 Presidential Election
57:32 Where to Find Niall Ferguson
I've seen his docu's about money and it was very interesting, not entirely true though, as he leaves out much like that banks were not an Italian city states invention, it was a re-invention of the temple's financial function from the ancient Greeks and Romans. He then contributes the French Orient Company's stock crisis to John Lock, which isn't exactly true. The problem was the big influx of international money into the stocks and then financial mismanagement by the French King. Similar his notion that the printing of money was cause of the Weimar inflation is wrong.
It was not the money printing that caused the hyperinflation, it was the communist revolution or rather it's decisions to first default on the debt taking out international borrowing and then confiscating 10% of every citizen's assets that destroyed confidence in government and the rest is just a consequence from that. Subsequently he got the Great Depression wrong.
The Great Depression started not from the '29 wall street crash, that was just a typical market correction of 60% that we see roughly once every decade..... it was the bond investors that pulled out of the bond markets that started in Austria in '31, leading all developed nation governments to issue bankruptcy like domino bricks as they couldn't kick the fan down the road, a very similar situation we find our own governments in today and it's a guarantee that this monetary system is gonna fail in the same way, the only question is when, not if.
And seeing the amount of social decay in the west which usually happens 10-15 year before the fall, I'd say we'd have another 10 years max. So I wouldn't necessarily take financial advice from a journalist; even one of the old stamp that actually does a little bit of research, contrary to the political activists we call journalists today.
it's not that simple
it's that the incentives are the same so there's no reason to change the behaviour even if you know the "final" outcome is "bad"'
(and still what does bad mean? bad for who bad for how long)
there's usualy a lot of parties that are invested in a system (more than you would think)
change is hard and VERY unpredictable
let's say you know the outcome is bad so you change your action how long will your system endure "bad" for a "good" outcome? (what you realisticly need is to try some stuff and see what happens and when you finily figured out something the surcumstances have changed and it's no longer viable)
will you lose power?
wilkl you even be able to finish the proces?
@@stijnvdv2 I don't really understand how financial stuff like that works.
Pretend you were elected tomorrow...What would you do to try to prevent an economic disaster, or lessen the blow, if possible?
@@serpentines6356 it's not possible to prevent what is coming. We 've crossed the Rubicon on that years ago. The problem we face here is sovereign debt. Governments are broke everywhere and just kick the can down the road by issuing new devt to pay the old ones, similar to how you'd use one creditcard to pay off the other. The bom will go off great depression style when the bond investor is gonna pull back and stop buying new bonds. That has already happened in the EU and Japan, they only extended that by letting the central banks take over the function of bond investors, but that too willbe final as interests are rising and the balance sheet of the ECB as well as other banks like that of Japan to blow up in the politician's faces. You can only extent the rubberband so much bedore it snaps. It won't happen tomorrow, but in roughly the time span of the next 10 years. Poloticians know this, hence their mentall illness and obsession about the 'green new mcommunist misery' aganda 2030.
100s of thousands of illegal uncertifiable ghost votes in the AZ audit and constitution broken all over the country.
keep denying reality in front of your face as you defen authoritarians and pretend to be impartial and objective on these issues...
“The most effective way to destroy people, is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.” George Orwell
"A country that forgets its history has no future " Sir Winston Churchill
Haha 🤡
Humans are weak, scared, and stupid. They were made to be subjects
Or just take away food for a few days..
as this guy keeps denying reality in front of your face as you defen authoritarians and pretend to be impartial and objective on these issues...
0:00: 📚 History is unpredictable and non-linear, and we should learn lessons from it accordingly.
9:06: 🔄 History does not repeat itself in a cyclical manner due to the unpredictable nature of technological innovation and random disasters.
13:22: 📚 The idea that history repeats itself or follows a predictable cycle is comforting but not accurate, as demonstrated by economists' failed predictions and the flawed models used to project future outcomes.
19:30: 📚 History is a valuable tool for understanding the future, but drawing analogies from past empires is hazardous and there is no sure way to predict the decline and fall of an empire.
25:38: 📚 The 17th century and the printing press can provide more insights into our time than the mid-20th century and World War II.
31:40: 📚 The printing press had unintended consequences, such as the spread of both religious reform and witchcraft hysteria.
38:35: 📚 The lack of worldliness and historical knowledge in America contributes to myopia in conversations, and time travel through reading history is the closest thing we have to time machines.
44:28: ⏳ The speaker discusses the limitations of time travel and the impact of lost historical knowledge, using examples of Afghanistan and Scotland.
51:12: 🔮 The speaker predicts that if Biden becomes the nominee and Trump is re-elected, the left will refuse to acknowledge the result, leading to political instability in the United States.
56:34: 📚 The speaker suggests that arguments about double standards will have a greater impact than arguments about the 2020 election being stolen, and explains why Biden could be a weak candidate for re-election and Trump could get reelected.
Recap by Tammy AI
Just what time-starved folks like me need. Thank you Tammy AI!
History of which the relevant part is 'story' seems to be tales of what is called the past, and you seem to struggle with tenses and language generally. It is axiomatic or a definitional impossibility that none can" predict" the past
"
In Hebrew, 'Biden' (בידן) & 'Harris' (הריס) added together mean:
הריסבידן
"In their hand - destruction"
do you think we are all idiots?
History does teach us about human behaviour. In particular it teaches us about the behaviours of political leaders, despots, generals and admirals.
Yes. History prepares us to manage our affairs, not to forecast the future.
Leaders, generals and admirals would be nothing if there were not a huge mob of people who would follow and support them or just obey orders and do as everybody else and kill and be killed by the millions. The problem in history has always been the mob of ignorant followers, or 'the people' as i think they are called today.
There is a ellipsis here which misleads. The 'history of human behaviour' teaches us about human behaviour. The 'history of mathematics', for example, doesn't (much).
But do we actually know how to properly identify the despots?
In this day and age, it seems rather unlikely, if not impossible.
But here's a hint for you: All despots emerge from the Left or Far Right.
Trump is on the Right. Democrats are on the Left, and they employ tactics which are common among both the Far Left and the Far Right.
The edges are extremists, and the Democrats have one foot on the patio of extremism. The Far Right are Antifa - NOT Trump.
...except for all the political leaders, despots, generals and admirals who behaved in completely different ways. History only teaches us about human behaviour in the most shallow and impractical way.
Niall Ferguson is utterly brilliant. I can listen to him all day without a break. Thank you for this. Excellent.
Voltaire said, "History never repeats itself. Man always does." Nothing more need be said.
Haha good one
It is really amazing how the world has remembered historians the last two years. And it is really a pity such people were not "mainstream" a few years ago. We enjoyed every minute of this one!
He is a sell out.
@@wolfgang-franzkranek6146 So many do!
as this guy keeps denying reality in front of your face as you defen authoritarians and pretend to be impartial and objective on these issues...
@@wolfgang-franzkranek6146 i agree hes a TV book deal personality like Douglas Murray .anybody after examining the history behind the Ukraine debacle that comes up with the Russians are the evil ones with rusting weapons is not an historian that i would take seriously
Anyone that sees my post here should read any books by David McCullough. Every one of his books is interesting and brings out the humanity of the people he talks about.
if you grab the “white fragility” book and replace the ethnicity of the main subject, you got that 1930’s book we can’t talk about.
Dammnnnnnn you’re truly in the big leagues now Chris. Ferguson is no bullshit. He’s one of the true intellectuals.
Niall Ferguson, just another shill of Chatham House.
😂😂
One of my favorite current historians
Indeed, he is just another propagandist of Chatham House.
One of the a*holes we have to thank for the Ukraine war and other conflicts.
Niall Ferguson: In Syria, as elsewhere, US military might is the best available means of preventing crimes against humanity. 🤣
@@Astugait was but they didn’t have the appetite to start a war with Russia. Who else would take the peacekeeper role? China?
Oh my god! You got Ferguson!
And Weinstein! I just love the balance & dare I say it? Advocating free speech…
Evan?
I wish Chris invited Sir Alex Ferguson
I was so happy to see this video recommended, but I had visitors arrive.
I know, he is such an overstimated historian. He started as a good expert of economic transformations in 19th century but he lost his way when he went into things he knows nothing.
Chris, great interview! Niall, very educational! During the Cuban missile crisis, we all owed the avoidance of WWIII to a very honorable heroic Russian officer who refused to fire a nuclear torpedo at American destroyers who were depth charging his submarine. The man was punished by his government, GOD BLESS HIM!
Who told you about "heroic Russian officer,,," and why do you believe hem?
When studying men (human beings) it quickly becomes apparent that the accept without question or believe, passively mechanically faute de mieux and to believe what they*want* to believe. Their predisposition to believe and to be passive are probably their greatest weakness both severally and jointly; if A tells them something and B and C tell them the same thing the will swear blind that it is true and cannot be otherwise although they could not possibly have verified it for themselves - they default to belief or passive acceptance without question, and perhaps most astonishing of all they will believe because they suppose others so believe or suppose there to be a democracy of truth known as the falacy argumentum ad populum, which are the hallmarks of the halfwit. "Oh but *most people*.....," they bleat
Did Niall mention that America had put nuclear missiles in Turkey first
@@vhawk1951kltrue but also relax, the story about the Russian officer is documented
@@Doxsein To what is at is it relevant that the story about the Russian officer is documented? Naively charming though you Elsies' faith in documents may be , you plainly cannot understand that hearsay in writing or documents is still hearsay. It is utterly irrelevant to the truth or falsity of a story that it appears in a document which is not some sort of white man's magic imparting truthfulness to what is otherwise no more than a story and hearsay, although it is one of the hallmarks of the lower classes(Elsies) that they suppose there to be a democracy of truth aka the fallacy argumentum ad populum, which is a fallacy of relevance and suppose writing or documents to be a form of magic.
NO, because that key chronological point would force folk to think about the actual narrative.@@seanmoran2743 Whether it be the the Soviet Union or modern day Russia, the "west" is consistent in its behaviour, and hasn't changed much at all.
I am a fan of Niall Ferguson. Thanks for inviting him on your show!
Haha I’m sure he’d have to do just a bit more than merely invite him. Niall is in high demand
as this guy keeps denying reality in front of your face as you defen authoritarians and pretend to be impartial and objective on these issues..
What a thrill to hear this discussion with Ferguson. I have followed his work for years. So fresh, pertinent and informative. He makes you think intelligently. Thank- you
He is just another shill and propagandist of Chatham House.
One of the a*holes we have to thank for the Ukraine war and other conflicts.
Niall Ferguson: In Syria, as elsewhere, US military might is the best available means of preventing crimes against humanity. 🤣
,q.
Fascinating Niall Ferguson interview, as always, and I feel like you brought the best out of him.
It would be interesting to ask him about the World Economic Forum if you have him on again, as he seems like a trustworthy and down-to-earth person with some insight into an often-mistrusted organisation.
Are you serious ? the WEF wants you to own nothing and be happy .wants a world government and ferguson is probably a member
Great session. Agree or disagree with Mr. Ferguson, you cannot but be impressed with his erudition and depth of thoughtfulness. He is undoubtedly a conservative but at least he is honest. Well done Chris.
That was an outstanding episode. Really compelling discussion. Ferguson is so listenable. The perfect foil for Chris' interviewing style
Niall Ferguson's Empire is worth a read.
I'd go further than that. Perhaps essential reading. Also Larry Siedentop's 'Inventing the Individual'.
brilliant, brilliant book
You didn't enjoy his propaganda book for the Rothschild family
Conversations like this make me love technology. How lucky are we to be able to listen to stuff like this? Love your work ❤
not really 'lucky' - these guys are doing the thinking of what we would expect from Journalists who are no longer at the NYT, WP, Fox, BBC, ABC, CDE etc.
God, what a refreshing conversation. I read quite a bit of history, but I'm realizing that I've been looking at the past through a pinhole. My perspective is suddenly shifting and I'm almost giddy. More please!
Why is TV no longer able to provide this type of long format discussion where the presenter is humble enough to learn from an expert
because all the really good historians have been cancelled
Because the purpose of TV is to maximize profit for the media corporations and this wouldn't be as profitable.
You hit the nail on the head there, that’s quite an epiphany, what happened to us listening to expert opinion and at what point were we forced to listen to irrelevant presenters with very little knowledge giving us their opinions, what’s more giving their opinions as if it was the facts and nothing else should be considered
Both Niall and Chris seem like really likeable genuine blokes
Wow, you got Niall Ferguson. Love the conversation. Please get Warren Farrell and Christina Hoff Summers to dive into what is happening in our society with educating young men and boys and feminism gone off track.
Thank you. Love your videos, you really put a lot of effort into them. Much appreciated! 🙏☕️👌
I second that. What a great guest to have on your channel
While you are at it, try and get Camille Paglia and or Janice Fiamengo, they are also excellent on these issues.
If the economic forecasters are consistently wrong, isn’t that a pattern??
Definitely
I do hope Niall really does his EMPIRES as next big project.
We had a teacher that finished our grade 9 curriculum on the Nazis 1 week early just so she could squeeze in the horrors of Communism on her own volition. It did wonders for us, expanding our understanding and built up our resistance against utopian ideas, so easily fallen into by young minds. Learning about all the other empires would do the same for the ages of conquest.
Too bad she didn't tell you how Hitler really came to power and who funded him. there are books written about that.
Yes good teachers are worth their weight in gold 🕊
@@metgirl5429 That's true... I had 3x terrible, grumpy, short-fused math teachers in a row in my last three years of school and I never qualified for engineering at a tertiary institute. In spite of getting B's in physics, I could never constantly hit C's in math... those teachers were worth their weight in concrete boots.
@@schalkvandermerwe3838From your name, I think you grew up in the same country as I. I was at school in the 70s and also had fantastic history teachers. As you say, I also had a well rounded history on all the forms of totalitarianism by engaged and interesting teachers, therefore developing resistance against utopianism and a love of learning about all history and how it has shaped the world. But also two terrible maths teachers in early high school who were instrumental in it becoming a struggle all the way to matric and then something to be avoided in later life. A great loss.
@@freebird7017 - oh wow, yes math teachers. Same story. So sad. Had a great teacher with a lot of patience in grade 10, who had to move 1/2 way through the year to give business economics, because they could find another math teacher, but not business ec. Grade 10.5 was a mess. 11-12 were short tempered aggressive teachers. I never recovered even though I loved math.
Mark Twain also said, "I have discovered that that there are many things which I've said which I never said."
This is one of the things I’ve watched online where I didn’t feel a little bit bad for wasting my time. Well done Chris.
well you coudnt have watched too many pod casts then ,try Victor Davis Hanson for history much better than this guy
@@walshbouchard Yes, Mr. Hanson is very good. Podcasts and writing of his is good stuff.
Niall Ferguson is always great to listen to. His knowledge is outstanding. Great Interview, thankyou.
Ferguson’s interpretation of history and how it coheres with modern events is well explained and makes a lot of sense.
Similarities exist in history, but there are just too many factors in any particular event that may just turn the tides.
I don’t know about Ferguson before this interview but now I am going to follow this bright historian
Nice try Niall
as this guy keeps denying reality in front of your face as you defen authoritarians and pretend to be impartial and objective on these issues...
Niall Ferguson is a treasure. Thank you.
I think one of the biggest assumptions that our forebears made at the end of The Great War and the The Second World War was that people would inherently understand the evils of how fascism and communism had sept their way into causing the rise of the Nazis, and later the USSR although its seeds were prevalent in those times. And in fact, the educational establishments at the higher end were being subsumed by communism, and the lower end of school was looking to reform education. Eventually, we ended up with an education across The West which lightly touched on the dangers of those ways of thinking, without really explaining it to the students, and so modern people know that the Nazis and the Soviets were "the bad guys," but recognising how they come about and how they act in society isn't understood. And so, in turn, we end up inadvertently repeating history. Western education sorely needs reform, and this is a precise example of why, along with other issues.
Departments of education and all levels of education have been overrun by leftists and liberals. Not credibly debatable. Unfortunately, these people want to tell others what to do, but are practical fools themselves. Must teach oneself, do not surrender reason at the door.
1914 ruined Europe
Well said, Jimmy
Thanks Chris. I've been reading and listening to this man for twenty years, he brings such value to my understanding of the world. Thank you so much for getting him on and engaging him in such a rewarding interview.
Such a distinguished guest! Thanks for all your work on this channel.
lol another smooth brain
What an absolutely cracking interview between a genuinely inquisitive canny Geordie lad, and a Goodfellow of global renown. The depth and scope of his responses reflects the respect he had for your erudite and probing questions. Well done lads; the best hour of listening I've had for a while. Mick the Hick in sunny Northumberland.😋
I like how you talk
Totally agree. Ya' see. There's some good stuff on social media.
His book on WWI, The Pity of War, is a masterpiece. Beautifully written.
This is good, but surely history DOES tend to repeat itself if you forget its lessons? I see so many similarities in what is happening today and in recent decades, with things that have happened previously in history, and seemingly on mulitple instances! The same problems occur due to the adoption of same types of policies designed to tackle the same types of original problems, again and again throughout history. At the least, there are striking similarities.
I dont comment on RUclips very often... But this was an absolutely amazing discussion. Brilliant back and forth. Thank you.
One of the best videos on one of the best channels. Ferguson is one of my favourite historians. His emphasis on the possible and the contingent leads to some brilliant insights.
Looking forward to listening. I've always enjoy his talks and intereviews. Perhaps the Missus will be next up? She is an absolute powerhouse and has so much to teach and share.
Great episode. My favorite part is at 17:55, when chris says "give me two examples..." while subconsciously squeezing 2 imaginary bazoongas for 5 seconds straight
😂
Peter Turchin provides the most scientific approach to evaluating history. While we can’t “predict” the future, we can read history scientifically no different than the way we study any other living thing.
Great conversation, it's always insightful to hear Niall's thoughts and balanced perspectives.
Niall Ferguson is one of the most fascinating people to listen to, definitely in my top ten.
This channel is one of the top contributors in my perosnal and intellectual growth. I adore Chris' curiousity and his brilliant guests! Thank you so much buddy! God bless.
History repeats itself because no one listens
Anyone who wants an easy intro to Niall Ferguson, find The Ascent of Money docu series. Really opens your eyes up to the "reality" we all exist in
"History is a series of forking paths."Just when you think your forking them they're forking you.
There's a beautiful channel ran by a PhD in military history called Schwerpunkt that delves into such political and social topis at length. Admittedly the content is not for everyone but it's mind-blowing to say the least
Niall Ferguson got his authoritative camera angle game on point today.
Amazing to hear so many words and sentences spoken so eloquently, yet saying nothing of substance. This proves that historians would make great politicians.
He is a sell out.
Great interview. Not only do too many people read history as a novel, there are too many people who think they can write the future as a novel!
If more people understood the ‘forking paths’ in history then they might better understand the need to make well informed decisions now. Or, to put it another way, maybe the fact that most people don’t understand the ‘forking paths’ of history explains why most people don’t see the need to make well informed decisions now.
I found this video very interesting but not as you might expect. As a kid I didn’t enjoy history at school and dropped the subject as quickly as I could. As an adult I love learning about history - warts and all. I was in school from the late 60’s to the early 80’s and teaching was very different. This struck me a good few years ago when I went to a parent’s evening at my daughter’s school. I was struck by how dedicated and devoted the teachers were, something I only remember from a handful of my teachers. I think more is understood about the mechanisms of learning today than when I was at school ( autism wasn’t even fully accepted as a credible diagnosis back then!). However, teachers are now more restricted in what they are expected to teach, particularly in history. So we now have great teachers but a poor curriculum which seems crazy to me. I am so glad that my daughter has inherited my enquiring mind and has been taught to learn properly by her teachers ( she is now 25 and on a wonderful career path). I have always taught her to accept nothing and test everything - great video.
Where do you live that has great teachers?
It is like finding that missing piece of the jigsaw puzzle, how intriguing to discover by the suggestion that we overlook the obvious by omission of the obvious. Thank you Niall Ferguson for reminding me that history is the sum of all parts and not just the few that gain popularity. Such a real and admirable fellow. Well presented Chris I will subscribe to your feed.
Something repeating over time doesn't inherently imply that it is somehow exactly predictable. Can you really deny that humans repeatedly make the same kind of mistakes over and over again over the course of history?
I think it's the essence of human nature that means we keep on doing the same thing, unsuccessfully. In that case the repeatability is real and is understandable. The result of the American lead regime change in Libya was entirely predictable, well it didn't surprise me. It has been no more successful than the removal of the Saddam Hussein regime.
History repeats itself simply because, to quote Napoleon, " the winner always writes history..." ..rr Normandy, France
Morning Chris - hope you are well. Long time listener, first time commenting. I enjoy your show it makes great background for the gym, driving and studying. I really appreciate you introducing me to Niall through this podcast. What a fascinating conversation. That's actually why I've decided to comment. I've realised this might be useful feedback: The episodes I love most are the ones that make me feel like part of the conversation even though I haven't said anything. If that's helpful let me know and I'll try and break down what I mean in more detail. If not - no worries. Please get Niall back as soon as it's convenient to you both. I'd love to hear you both discuss aspects of history that your both passionate and interested in.
Naill has been commenting in a credible and very listenable way for a long time, I particulary liked his thesis that China was rampant and the history of the world was inevitably heading east and the west was in terminal decline ... funny how an alternate history translates into an alternate reality - sometimes you're the pigeon and sometimes you're the statue 😉
Finally, my wife's insistence on me watching Outlander comes in handy.
Great topic, it's nice to hear about something different than the gender issues.
For this topic I can add that: We look at the past, through the eyes of the present.
And that the story changes every time it's repeated, just like the chilhood parlor game, where you line up the children, and make them wisper a word to the kid next to them, and then pass it on to the next, and that word will be completely different that the original word, every time. We used to call it the telephone game or the rumors game. I call that historical distortion, as in the story changes, every time it's repeated.
We called it purple monkey dishwasher and it’s imo a very important game to play with kids maybe it plays a part in critical thinking development? 🤔 just spitballing here
I agree with your statement about the repeat, in that, events may not repeat. However given certain circumstances, people respond in very predictable actions. Therefore, it is not the event that repeats itself; it is the population that repeats itself following similar events.
Just thinking back to my history lessons I realise that about the only history I never learnt about at school was 1935 onwards. Junior school gave me an overview from neanderthal man to 19th century. I learnt industrial revolution at 16 and Tudors and Stuarts at 18. I was taught the many of the facts of slavery. I am so grateful to my teachers who could range though the past and encouraged discussion. Note I am 66. My general education throughout all subjects was general rather than in depth so showed me lots of doors that I could go through to study in depth.
I’m in the US and was in high school in the 80s…..and we never would get past WWII….June would come, the school year end. I finally asked after my junior year if we were going to discuss after WWII, Vietnam, etc…..and was told there was just too much history, not enough time, etc. In college took US History 1945 to present, which helped me understand what happened after WWII, how we went from being allies with Russia during the war to enemies, etc. Of course today with the access of the internet, you can easily learn about whatever you want.
In junior primary school we learnt about the age of exploration, Vascoda Gama, Columbus etc, and the empires of South America. Upper primary school we learntabout Australian history, and how it was influenced by British and American history.
Junior highschool we did the Middle Ages, renaissance, the reformation and the English civil war, and the American and French Revolution, and the unification of nations following the Napoleonic wars. We spent one term on the twentieth century. In senior highschool history was broken into ancient and modern history and were not compulsory though I did both.
By the time my kids went to school history had been replaced with Aboriginal studies and universities warned there was no point studying history as now that it would never again be taught in schools it had limited work prospects. So now we've had thirty years of no history being taught in schools or universities.
@@grannyannie2948oh how awful. Is that true ( about history no longer being taught)?
@@mauvegreenwisteria3645 As far as I know. It hasn't been taught in the state I'd lived in for over a generation.
@@grannyannie2948 Scary
I have always liked the line "History does not repeat itself, historians just repeat each other".😜
How is 'history doesn't repeat itself' doubly inaccurate if it is inaccurate 'because history doesn't repeat itself'?
The only thing that people learn from history is that people don’t learn from history 🤷🏼♂️🙏🏼
History will repeat, to the extent that Human nature is bound by it's own Limitiations : Ego, Vision, Innovation, Power struggles, Fears, Love, mommy complex etc. Oh and also, that there are Ruling Elites that Love to repeat the cycles of history, that which transferred the wealth of the masses, back to them.
What is happening today is completely unique. The fall of the West is comparable to the mouse utopia experiment in the sense that a cabal of communist mice have actively encouraged the mouse population to embrace destructive and degenerate behaviour. This cabal of Cultural Marxist mice have also swung open the cage door, and encouraged mice from all of the other cages in the lab [failed cages] to pour into the one and only high-functioning mouse society that existed. 1/
The systematic deconstruction and annihilation of 'white Christian mouse hegemonic oppression' was helped in part by a small group of Marxist mice in the corner of the cage who were screeching about the societal decline being a product of nihilism, hedonism, decadence, and overabundance. 2/
The fall of the West is also comparable to the fall of the Roman Empire in the sense that the Roman Senate inexplicably began overthrowing all of Roman hegemonic oppression. All Roman-controlled regions were to be viewed as hostile to 'POC'. The whole Roman nation-state was ordered to throw open its gates, and allow 'minority' populations to gain intersectional and ethnic dominance. And all Christians were to be purged. The Roman Empire was full on cancelling itself from existence [just like the West is today]. 3/
This cancellation of the West is fueled by the incredible success of Western civilization. The more high-functioning and wealthy that the West became, the more that communists [Cultural Marxists] were driven to destroy. No other civilization in history has experience this type of internal attack. 4/
An good counterpoint & compliment to this guest would be Professor Joseph Tainter author of ‘The Collapse of Complex societies’ he’s an archaeologist so he tends to deal in longer runs of time than the average historian.He also goes into details of how you can tell when an Empire is on the skids.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" does not mean "history repeats itself." I don't know why he treated it like they meant the same things.
Here is how lex fridman would conduct this interview:
"What is history?"
(He gives a great answer)
”is that good?"
(He gives a great answer)
"If history was an object, what shape would it be"
(He gives a great answer)
"Is that good or bad?"
I've pretty much always thought to myself that it would be interesting if someone made a TV series about historic events going differently, alternative histories, and so on. Like the timelines shift, events change, people who died young/early live longer and people who lived to old age die young, the victors of wars and battles become the losers and vice versa, etc. Like Kennedy/Lincoln live to old age, Rome never collapses, Gandhi was never born, Charlemagne died as a child, Carthage defeats Rome, the Axis powers win WW2, Homo sapiens are eradicated by Neanderthal, Slavery was abolished without a civil war and on and on. That sort of stuff. I guess maybe kind of like Quantum Leap meets Twilight Zone meets Man in the High Castle, etc.
Some stuff similar to this on Whatifalthist 's channel. Particularly his older stuff.
@@dumdum8880 Ah, yeah. I'm a subscriber. I love that channel. And that's how I first discovered it a few years ago - I was probably thinking about this exact thought and I wondered if there were any channels, videos or series like that on RUclips and Whatifalthist was the first result. I remember thinking it was cool how it pretty much perfectly meshed with that thought - like, at the time, I thought it was sort of a semi-unique thought lol. But yeah I mean, that kind of scratches that itch - like in an educational/documentary form - which is cool, I love that kind of stuff.
But it would also be super cool if they'd make a scripted series like that. Maybe each season could be like a specific era or just multiple episodes depicting different versions of the same event or person's life or whatever - or, maybe each episode skips around randomly on topics/subjects. I don't know - I've just always thought that could be cool. That seems to be similar to a fairly popular sub-genre - like Twilight Zone or Black Mirror or something where each episode is like a short standalone movie or, maybe kind of like American Horror Story - where each episode of the season is connected but each season is a new story.
There is enough real information to gather without cluttering our minds with excessive WHAT IF?
It might not be a TV series, but Ferguson wrote a book with about 11 other historians on different 'what might have been' scenarios, called Virtual History, if that might be of interest?
@@pineapplesandthegovernment6522 I wrote that down.
Wonderful conversation, gents - ta very muchly...
☝️😎
Seems to be rhyming pretty hard at the moment. Guess I'm watching a different movie.
Trying to get to a better understanding is worth the effort. If we don't care enough to pursue the understanding without bias freedom will be taken from us.
Even as a layman, we could tell the Iraq adventure was going to be disaster and an unnecessary one that had no strategic significance.
Oh, FFS.
Anybody who still believes that the reason we invaded Iraq has ANYTHING to do with "spreading democracy" should IMMEDIATELY be treated with contempt.
We didn't even get the oil. We invaded to make George Bush and his friends rich. Perpetual war economy to make military contractors wealthy.!
I love Niall, a thoughtful human.
History doesn’t repeat itself, human nature does.
He has a certain way of going from rational to strange assumptions that certainly make him popular but to a historian he is a pop culture icon not to be very influential to the specialists.
I have never heard of this man before but I was really pleased with the discussion. He offers a very clear picture while trying to be objective and not very political. Well spoken, sir!!
Check out Ferguson's Ascent of Money if you like his style.
@@Rawdiswar will do. Thanks!
Fun fact: with the exception of The Very Hungry Caterpillar, Nialls book about the British empire is the only book I've read cover to cover more than once.
Nial Ferguson is the shit. Thanks for having him on the show. I have read several of his books.
This was great! I was really hoping Chris would ask Niall about the 4th turning theory
The better quote is; « those who forget history are condemned to repeat it ».
Niall Ferguson has the most extraordinary memory recall I've ever witnessed, he has an incredible mind. The greatest historian of our generation. I recommend watching the debates he took part of, from the Annual Meeting of Yalta European Strategy (Victor Pinchuk Foundation).
Yes, he's good, but there's no need to put him on a pedestal. There are other historians worth reading.
Ferguson is the most articulate man in the English language.
Hold on. A demonstration is not an insurrection.
Yes, the both-sideism implied by that analogy is a bit stunning.
They still totally don't understand Trump
Defacating in Congress and fighting the police and trying to kill Pence is. Policemen were terribly hurt and died. You are delusional.
Disrupting the peaceful transfer of power, and trying to install a candidate that lost an election, all involving violence and coercion is equivalent to an insurrection in my book.
History is definitely destined to repeat itself, honestly, just in different ways.
What is happening today is completely unique. The fall of the West is comparable to the mouse utopia experiment in the sense that a cabal of communist mice have actively encouraged the mouse population to embrace destructive and degenerate behaviour. This cabal of Cultural Marxist mice have also swung open the cage door, and encouraged mice from all of the other cages in the lab [failed cages] to pour into the one and only high-functioning mouse society that existed. 1/
The systematic deconstruction and annihilation of 'white Christian mouse hegemonic oppression' was helped in part by a small group of Marxist mice in the corner of the cage who were screeching about the societal decline being a product of nihilism, hedonism, decadence, and overabundance. 2/
The fall of the West is also comparable to the fall of the Roman Empire in the sense that the Roman Senate inexplicably began overthrowing all of Roman hegemonic oppression. All Roman-controlled regions were to be viewed as hostile to 'POC'. The whole Roman nation-state was ordered to throw open its gates, and allow 'minority' populations to gain intersectional and ethnic dominance. And all Christians were to be purged. The Roman Empire was full on cancelling itself from existence [just like the West is today]. 3/
This cancellation of the West is fueled by the incredible success of Western civilization. The more high-functioning and wealthy that the West became, the more that communists [Cultural Marxists] were driven to destroy. No other civilization in history has experience this type of internal attack. 4/
I don't believe in destiny, but yeah, I do think it is repeatable; but in different ways.
Fun term; "momentum of Retro perspective" Your perspective generates momentum in a certain direction. One can only predict actions based on an understanding of perspective. "The only real choice you have is the angle in which you see a thing." Changing that will inevitably change how you act/interact. So future and historical predictions and patterns can only be predicted on a personal level to which cannot be done with those that are no longer among the living.
I've watched/read a lot of Niall's work over the years. But I can't believe he can state that people only lived to 20 years - he MUST know that this is not true, therefore his anti-BS sure wasn't working at this point.
Simple examples - Marcus Aurelius died at 59 due to the plague [therefore could've lived a lot longer], Socrates was 71 when he died - due to drinking poison [so again, could've lived another 10-15yrs]. Aristotle got to 62 [natural causes] and Plato died at age 80 [natural causes].
If you take out childhood mortality [majority of children died under 5] then the human lifespan hasn't changed in millennia. There's evidence that hunter-gatherers were far more healthy than us [from analysis of bones/teeth] and that they could live long lives too.
Childhood mortality dropped mainly as a result of increases in sanitation [not advances in medicine] . For some history of that have a read about the tragic story of Ignaz Semmelweis.
Instead of increased lifespan in our current time, we're experiencing the opposite. Lifespan is declining. Part of that is 'deaths of despair' but the majority of the decline is due to 'diseases of civilisation'. In particular, the drastic changes to our diet over the last 50-odd years.
Big pharma wants us to think that lifespan is increasing - due to popping their pills of course - but that's total BS. Surprised that Niall would make such a statement about people living to 20.
He actually said (around 10:35) "in the twenties", which it mostly was on average. Of course the average included many dying in childhood, and very few living to advanced age. He never said or implied that people died at exactly 20.
As you imply/state, lifespan has NOT increased; rather average life expectancy has increased significantly. Ferguson making the latter point.
Psalms 90 verse 10… the days of our years are three score and ten. Best think on this if you plan to make good use of your time.
History is thematic and if there is any rhyme to it...I think it falls primarily on themes related to the human condition and our constant struggle with virtue, vice, order and chaos. I'm reading Lewis Lapham's "The Wish for Kings" where just 10 pages in, he drops enormous clarity into the US Political System, beautifully illustrating the chronic abuse of our democracy by those in power using the 1992 Presidential election as an example. Brilliant writing!
“You pick the historical analogy that suits your journalistic purpose and away you go” - he’s one of the history boys for sure! 😂
Start with the conclusion and always hit the mark...
Excellent interview thank you.
Very interesting guest.
He's been invited twice to the Bilderberg Conference which raises a few questions about his integrity though.
The WEF as well.
The Left accusing the Right of cheating didn't start in 2016, though, I am very glad you corrected Neil on the point of what happens when one Party does that. One Party did. The Dems, also, did it in 2000 with Al Gore in the Presidential election. Then, there's Stacy Abrams who insisted for years that she won the Governor's race.
Wonderful interview. I learned things and found it most enjoyable, too.
I’ve always thought of history as cyclical, but not so precise so that you can predict the next 10 years. For example empires are founded, grow strong, expand, overextend, become degenerate, then collapse. You can’t say whether that will happen of 50 years or 1000 years. On the larger timescale, technological capabilities expand, there’s a massive civilization collapse, and portions of the technology are lost for very long periods of time. You can’t say whether will happen over a few thousand years or 10,000+ years.
With economists, the ones that win awards and get published, etc. are the ones who push narratives the governing regime wants to hear. To the extent there are accurate/honest ones working for private high-stakes gambling syndicates, they’d never be allowed to make their predictions public, because that would ruin their employer’s advantage.
As an admirer and apologist of Henry Kissinger, Mr.Ferguson seems he would like for history to repeat itself.Kissinger replaced democracies and replaced them with dictatorships.
Great insights, love the perspective on history, more like this please.
I'm so amazed that this highly intelligent man, Niall Fergusson, whom I've always admired so much...
1) believes Russia is a pile of rusty military equipment that is trying to regain its empire.
when
a) border disputes, however fair or unfair or wrong-headed, have nothing to do with empire building. Whereas, for the US and UK to invade a country across an ocean divide (like Iraq) most definitely is empire building. Wanting to convert people on the other side of the world to Christianity and your idea of governance as in centuries gone by is empire building.
b) the Russian economy went from third world basket case (under the drunken Yeltsin) to a first-world country,. having doubled the GDP again and again and is the only country that doesn't run a deficit. This fact alone makes the currrent Russian elader the greatest leader the world has ever seen.
It is sad to see Fergusson reduced to just another flunky of the trendy.
@@annatanneberger1 That's because Fergusson is a neo con shill type of historian.
Niall is brilliant!!
Thank you. Great interview. I recently discovered your channel and find your style of interviewing to be informative and your guests quite thought provoking.
He's great on Goodfellows, never thought I'd see him on a mainstream podcast though. Chris is doing a good job finding guests.
The guy is a Stanford (IIRC) professor, a best-selling author and a prominent public speaker and commentator. What makes you think you'd never see him on a mainstream podcast?
I can listen to Niall for hours and hours and often do. I have a celebrity crush on him and wish that we somehow could develop a political system that appealed to and incentivized folks like him to enter politics.
I thought that the world had learned a lesson after WWII. But I think a lesson only lasts a generation or so.
what were the particular lessons you had in mind? wwII was not the defining moment for the generations to come. yes nuclear mutual annihilation being possible was one outcome. but most of history prior to wwII shaped our lives far more (e.g. industrialization, workers rights hard fought for, the power of the scientific method and the technological advances that came from it and increased real power. the ideas of freedom of speech that preclude censorship (censorship of all forms, we can't have our cake and eat it)
@@elcapitan6126 the shock and horror of the murder of the prisoners that the Germans killed was not downplayed in any way. I watched documentaries about the concentration camps as a child. We never hushed it up. They showed the white emaciated dead bodies dumped into holes in the ground. Anyone with any sense thought this would never happen again.
That makes sense. When the old guard dies off, new generations that never experienced an event will not use it as a learning point. Our personal experiences are most powerful in shaping worldview.
the point is if you focus on one aspect of one time period you won't learn anything either and will repeat other mistakes even more tragic (e.g. nuclear arms race, runaway capitalism, ignoring productive economic activities in favor of profit seeking, return to feudalism and the ingredients that lead to harsh revolutions.
@kathyorourke9273 did you also recall the burning alive of a city nearing the end of WWII? did you think about the millions of men that died at the hands of statesmen in their board rooms across the world?