I read somewhere that there’s an interview process for the producers to choose who they want on the show. There’s questions like “what would a million dollars mean for you” and “how much would you and your family need” to gauge who are actually desperate enough to play with their emotions on the show to try and go for the highest amount they can possibly get. Logical and calculating people were not chosen for the show.
You can look at it like that; or that they’re choosing people who really need it so of course it’s going to be emotional. Bill Gates could go on the show and be logical, but that’s because he needs the money much less than people actually going on the show.
Too bad the calculating crowd didn’t calculate how to get on the show with a facade and then walk away with the highest amount of money they could make without taking the chance of losing it all
Idc what I might have in my case. As soon as they offer me $200k or more I’m taking it and going home. Gimme my money y’all stay and play this stupid shit. Good day work and a free hotel for the week 😅
The banker algorithm was literally built to reward them for going deeper in the game (although weirdly they made it a negative value play to risk it and go for the million)
@@flyingchimp12 the risk was the draw of the show, do you take an easy out and walk away with life changing money or do you go out on top and win the whole show Granted I wish more people went with the banker deal instead of risking it all but like Howie said, greed > reality
He’s not right. It’s a game show. Key word game 😂. Anyone plays any game to win for the most part. Most people don’t just join to have fun. Games are meant to be won. That’s not greed.
Your all wrong. The secret to deal or no deal is to trade your case. The first case you pick is 1/26 but then you get asked to change your case after already getting rid of a certain amount of cases. Let's say 13 cases are gone. And they ask you to switch. You immediately just changed ur 1/26 odds to 1/13 so when they ask you to change your case at the end when there's only 2 or 3 cases left you just changed ur 1/26 odd to 2/3. Basic math
you don’t have a 1/26 chance because there’s opportunities to pull out or pick another case, so it has to be someone who rides it out AND had a million in their case
It's not guaranteed you'll get $32K on your first offer, since the offers are a root mean square of the cases still in play. But yeah, I get it. However, this is the opportunity of a lifetime. And you also want to keep a good amount, after taxes.
@@giantsr1eva they have an audition process to weed out any possible weak or submissive contestants. You won't make on the show if you're spineless and gutless. But humans have an inherent need to gamble. People only tend to be conservative with money when it's their own. I can't tell you how many people have told me stories about how they had the opportunity to invest in [insert well known fortune 500 company here] at the ground floor, way before they blew up, and they would now be a millionaire had they did. But when you're playing with the house's money, most people aren't gonna stop at the first deal. How many people go to a free buffet, and only get one small plate of food? I can tell you that almost nobody would take a deal for $12K when they have a chance at a million.
My stepmom was on this shows first season when I was a kid. My whole family including me was in the audience it was really cool! She left with 85k or 86k and the case she chose had $50 in it! I wish I could say it changed our lives but the most it did for our family of 9 at the time was a new car. Crazy experience that I’ll never forget!
Nah, the true alpha move is to go 2 or 3 rounds and then bail, or if you're crazy, you go down to the last and bail, or for crack heads the case you didn't pick has a 25/26 chance of being the one
@@joeybaseball7352 I think the maths works out differently though, because you're not guaranteed 1 good option and two bad ones, there may be three decent options, 1 bad option and two good ones, all bad. Also, Monty Hall works because you receive information by having one of the bad options revealed to you, without it, it's a 1/3 no matter what you do.
@@anthonyewell3470after 3 rounds the offer would’ve been a comfortable $80k if you played it well, I would go one more good round and walk away with 6 figures
@@blest5132 are you kidding me no it's not not even close. well maybe a little close In some circumstances but a quick Google search says tax on gifts range from eighteen to forty percent I know it's not 50% because there is no tax that taxes you 50%😂. Why answer something like this when you have no idea what you're talkin about😂. And I highly doubt anyone gets taxed the 40%. I imagine most people would get tax closer to 18% than 40
I watched an episode where a guy who was a preacher had amassed 133,000 dollars. He could have took it and walked, greed took over. He lost it all, left empty handed. That show revealed a bit about human nature. PS, Meaghan Markel was one of the briefcase models on that show.
When people apply to be on the show they do alot of background checks. They choose people that have no idea of gambling statistics . They pick people that believe in luck.
It didn't work that way i don't think. They'd make offer & then open cases revealing money that's off the table. You want high money cases on the board
These people go after desperate people or greedy people. If they used normal people the show wouldn't be interesting because we would all take a deal once it hit 100k
Nah it's just a psychological thing for anyone that doesn't get game theory. You actually form an almost irrational attachment to the case you have, and the difference between winning 50k vs 500k makes people want to gamble.
I was never into this show because I would just do the math and accept the first offer that exceeds the expected value of the game. From a mathematical standpoint, it's a VERY simple game: Add up all the prizes remaining, divide by the number of cases remaining. That's the expected value of the game. If you played to the last case a thousand times from this point, that's how much the outcomes would average out to. You're being offered a sum to STOP playing. If the sum you're being offered exceeds the expected value of the game, then accept it. Sure, you MIGHT end up with more if you keep playing, but it's statistically unlikely. How unlikely? You can calculate that, too. Take the number of cases ABOVE that expected value and divide by the total number of cases remaining. That's your probability of exceeding the expected value. And given how the case values are distributed, it was always quite low.
For the record, according to Wikipedia: "The Banker's offer is typically a percentage of the average of the values still in play at the end of each round. This percentage is small in the early rounds, but increases as the game continues and can even exceed 100% in very late rounds." which suggests that it's almost always smarter to wait for a better offer even if the current offer is higher than the average
"Peoples greed out weighs reality" if that were true people would win 1 million once every 26 episodes. The fact that they didnt proves they are willing to take less than whats in their box.
That's not the way probability works. Each show the probability of winning 1 mil is 1/26. So the next show the odds are still 1/26 not 2/26 cause it's the 2nd show 😂
@@jessicadunford7629 First you have to have the assumption that no one ever takes a deal because, as Howie said, "peoples greed out weights reality", which is simply not true because most people who would have won the mill did infact take a deal before they got to that point. But if no one did take deals then you have an expected value of winning at 1/26. And though each constant has the same odds of winning you can expect a convergence in distribution. In the same way that if you flip a fair coin 10 times you "might" end up with 8 heads and 2 tails, but if you continue to flip that coin 1000 times you will begin to regress to the mean of 500 and 500 within a margin. And so, if you look at Deal or No Deal given they had over 300 episodes and some episodes had multiple contestants you're looking at 400 to 500 total constants, meaning you'd expect 15 to 20 people to win. Though they only had 4 winners, however I'd bet they had closer to 15 to 20 people actually pick the million dollar case, most of those people just took deals. This is infact how probability works. 👍
It’s all based on like the endowment effect and a couple other things, like they use reverse psychology and what not, but what interest me most is why no one just didn’t take the 50k, it’s like you’re guaranteed a a good amount of money or a chance At life changing money. Idk maybe it’s just me but the 50k seems good to me
If I remember correctly, no one wins 1 million US on Deal or No Deal in standard configuration, lots of them pick a million case but dealt before that. 2 winners come from "Million Dollar Mission" with more than one-million-dollar case in a game.
Thank you Howie, "people's greed..." It always amazes me on that show or like that Wayne Brady show how greedy people are. But it's still hard to watch when people lose shit is heart wrenching.
Yes. On May 12, 2023, it was announced that Deal or No Deal would be revived and retitled as Deal or No Deal Island and is said to be a mix of, "the original long-running format and Survivor". The new series is set to air on NBC, which aired the original series from 2005 to 2009.
“Broke” most of those people were likely middle class And he’s right, you know. A lot of people got offered money that was upwards of $1 million and still tried to take the risk of going for the million If people are on there for money, why not take the most you can get with the least amount of risk?
@@cyanidegrapes Bro that makes no sense you just said “‘Most of those people got offered upwards of 1 million to take the risk of going for a million”. If 1 million is the maximum prize why would they offer over 1 million and then the person choose to LOSE money to win 1 million. You trying to act smart and you just dropped the dumbest advice ever
One of my best mates won it on the original (as always) British version and it was all spent within 2 years now he lives in a council house (projects).
@@firefly9838 like people are really ignorant when they say that. Cause literally the first offer could be 5 bucks 😂😂. It’s literally not about greed cause if they say no deal and keep going. How can u call him greedy. The point of the game is to win the mill. The point of any game is to win correct lmfao.
I wouldn’t always say greed, some may have done it for the pure fact that they came there with nothing and leaving with nothing is equal to the enjoyment of just participating in the production.
The only episode I'll never forget was a guy picking 18 because of Peyton Manning. He made it all the way to the end and chose not to take what was in his case, and dammit he had that million in case number 18
I use to watch this show and seeing people pass up on hundreds of thousands of dollars just for a chance at a few extra hundred thousand showed me how privileged and how stupid some people are, and yes, it was always satisfying watching those people walk home with $1 when they couldn't had hundreds of thousands.
They definitely weren’t privileged. Howie would talk about how some contestants are drowning in debt / paycheque to paycheque. Just greed and not logical
That logic makes no sense. 1 out of 26 people should have won but taking the deal early would mean that only 1 out of 26 people who went all the way would win. Howie isn’t that smart.
I’ve watched and researched a lot of deal or no deal, that is absolutely not what happens lol. Idk how Howie of all people could butcher this so badly but the first offer was always around 10k or so, which is like 10% of what you would be expected to win if you play the game to the end (~$135,000) - so no, taking that would literally be the absolute worst move possible lol. The game is structured so that the last offer (sometimes last two), is better than risking and going for the million. For example, if you have 500k and 1mil left, the banker might offer 850k which you should always accept because if you risk it you’re going to get an average of 750k instead, that’s a big factor for lack of million dollar winners The game is actually quite simple from a strategy standpoint - you play as deep as you can because the longer you play the higher the amounts the banker will offer relative to your expected winnings, at the same time you should be managing risk and accepting the offer when you only have one high amount left so you’re not walking away with the low amounts and playing for$100
yeah dude, because the producers hand picked people who were likely to make bad decisions. Howie probably left that show with a manufactured complex that everyone on his show was an idiot.
For almost every game show, I would always go for the biggest prize. You only have something to win and nothing to lose, so I would always go for the grand prize, and if I dont get it, then O well, I go back to living my life.
@Red in a game show, I definitely would because there is nothing to lose. 1 dollar or a million dollars, you are winning something for free, so i would always try and go for the biggest prize. Other aspects of life no, but it is a game show not selling a company.
I always said that the second I get my first offer. I would say deal. Not like you're going to lose anything. The chance to win more or lose it all. I would rather go home ahead
The first offer is literally 10% of the average and expected winnings, you’re an idiot. The way the game is structured you can pick the top 2 values in the first round and the next offer will still go up, you’re an idiot
"It took 3 years to give away the first million" and then it's either edited or his incorrect logic says "because people's greed.." The only way to win a million dollars in the game is to select the million dollar case. The banker in the game will never offer you $1 million...
I think he just meant that everyone in the show relied on luck and didn't pick the good offers including whoever got the Million dollars who won it out of luck or the will of the producers.
The odds were about 75% to pick a case with less than $100,000 in it. Unless you can manage to stay ahead of the odds, you need to get out before it turns against you.
And now those people are struggling with $50,000 of debt and if they would’ve just taken the $50,000, they could’ve been living their best life with all their bills paid off😂 but they were just too greedy to be happy. He dug the hole, and now they live in it.
thats 50k before taxes and gameshows are taxed notoriously high there was a guy who won 30k on wheel of fortune and came out with 6k dollars after taxes
Keep in mind, the IRS gets 1/3 just for your hard work and winning. So that million? Only 666k after taxes. 200k? Nope more like 140 after taxes… The house/government always wins.
Its absolutely ridiculous they do this. The government is just like the mafia. "Oh you won a prize? Oh ok where is my prize? You gotta kick up I gotta to get a taste, get my beak wet" You won, the government had nothing to do with it
Oh no the government took some free money from me and all i got in return are roads, an education system, libraries, science grants, social services, etc etc. Want to not contribute financially to society? Go live alone in a remote area, or start working towards an organized no property anti capitalism anarchy.
my aide is like that, I bought the home version of the game with the money cards that go into the mini cases, we always put them facedown then shuffle them then I usually randomly grab a card and randomly decide which case to put it in. I usually act as the Host and Banker when she plays as the contestant and somehow she almost always finds the 1 million as her final case usually it's the 1 that she picked.
As a kid, I always remember thinking that I would leave regardless on the very first bank number revealed. Guess I would have beat the system. The amount they are almost given almost always beats the amount they receive in the end.
The average of the 26 cases is 136k$. Declining 50k$ is not really the worst decision. You are more likely to make over 50k$ on the average game of deal or no deal. With the worst possible outcome from the first 6 cases you still have a value of 13k$ average. Id say trying to get around 80k$+ is very resonable strategy. Its all luck but you gotta play the maths if they are in your favor. Now getting the actual million is greed😂
Median is better to use here because of the skew that the million and 500k bring to the average. The median case is between $750 and, $1000, so $875. Makes $50k seem like an amazing deal
The first offer was never even 50k! It was like 10% of your expected value, so around 10k. And yea the second offer would be like 30% expected value then 50% then 70%, then 90%. People in the comments bragging about not playing when they promise to make you better offers the longer you play, you just have to make sure you keep at least 1 of the high values and you’ll make at least 50k no matter what. Bunch of fools here fr
God damn these people are nuts. Just play it mathematically sound and let the results be the results! If I got an offer of like 30k I might take it IF it's the right move. But that's cause I'm brokeeee
sadly that's part of the game since you want it to be entertaining, not too embarrassing and not too quick because if your show isn't entertaining then they have no reason to pay you since generally that only goes out once your show airs.
wouldn't be possible to do that since you only control what to choose, the Producers tell everyone else to slow things down with opening the cases if things are going too fast.
Id be happy with whats left of 50k after taxes man. The pressure from being on the spot has got to be otherworldly though.. a crowd yelling at you... intense
then odds are you're not getting the money since the money generally only comes if the show airs. Also, that's not how the show works, the cases you're opening during the game are the values that are removed from the game.
Translation: Just like the bank, the lottery and even your job what you put in ain’t always what you gon get out. The more you move up in a job the more you get payed right but that’s more they take out your check. The lottery you’ve got 2 choices a large lump some or you can get a percentage every month until it’s all distributed out then they take taxes from it. And the bank always claim they’ve misplaced your money.
I love how he talks down on people about “greed” while he sits there with $500 shades and hosts a game show about money where he’s the middle man that makes “deals” with a dark figure who flaunts money in front of you..
The problem is they had all these high middle class AHoles and 50k is not really enough for them try putting average people. Insurance companies often close big liability claims for like 20k making a killing with their risk management for people who are really hurt but need the momey.
Ill never forget a lady was supposedly a die hard new york jets fan, she got offered like 200k plus a huge amount of Jets memorabilia including an entire year of season tickets. She ended up settling for a 5 figure deal, so not nothing, but i couldnt believe that. She was probably just role playing the part of being a fan
what howie doesnt understand is when poor people are getting a chance to win a million if they leave with $5 they are in no worse a spot than they were when they came on. being poor is a strength sometimes
It sounds profound, but what he is describes is just how the game works. It isn't about picking the best case to begin with and going home with it, it's about beating the banker by leveraging your potential. But most people just decide to gamble and hope they end up with more than the bank is offering.
Развлечения
I watched an episode where the guy had 1mil, $100, $5,$1 left. Bank offer was $645,000. How could you not take that? Anyways he won $5
That physically hurt to read.
Guy should of jumped at a 250k offer 645k you're dumb as shit lol
Ouch
Nonsense
😢
I read somewhere that there’s an interview process for the producers to choose who they want on the show. There’s questions like “what would a million dollars mean for you” and “how much would you and your family need” to gauge who are actually desperate enough to play with their emotions on the show to try and go for the highest amount they can possibly get. Logical and calculating people were not chosen for the show.
Thanks for the tip
You can look at it like that; or that they’re choosing people who really need it so of course it’s going to be emotional. Bill Gates could go on the show and be logical, but that’s because he needs the money much less than people actually going on the show.
Nah I don’t believe it, the banker offers way too much for that to be the case
Yes because for shows purposes they don’t someone that’s going to take a deal they rather have someone that would take the risk.
Too bad the calculating crowd didn’t calculate how to get on the show with a facade and then walk away with the highest amount of money they could make without taking the chance of losing it all
Idc what I might have in my case. As soon as they offer me $200k or more I’m taking it and going home. Gimme my money y’all stay and play this stupid shit. Good day work and a free hotel for the week 😅
Shit id take 50k and call it a day
10k and im walking
5k ham sammich
200k and ur first thought is a hotel for a week 😂
@@TheSchnozGobbler fr WTF 😂
They purposely pick contestants that they know will go all the way.
How could they possibly know
@@AmericanBadassPodcast someone else said that the producers asked every contestant questions that would show how desperate they were for the money
The same way I pick my dates
whos fault is that for letting money control YOUR mind.
@@AmericanBadassPodcast all game shows have to do risk assessments and vet players. They always know whos an easier target.
Well he’s right but the show was also built on those type of people otherwise the producers would have canned the show lol
The banker algorithm was literally built to reward them for going deeper in the game (although weirdly they made it a negative value play to risk it and go for the million)
@@flyingchimp12 the risk was the draw of the show, do you take an easy out and walk away with life changing money or do you go out on top and win the whole show
Granted I wish more people went with the banker deal instead of risking it all but like Howie said, greed > reality
He’s not right. It’s a game show. Key word game 😂. Anyone plays any game to win for the most part. Most people don’t just join to have fun. Games are meant to be won. That’s not greed.
500+ episodes with 1/26 chance to win a million dollars
“what’s the most someone’s won”
Going all the way to the very end is actually a terrible strategy. The odds are HEAVILY against the contestant.
Your all wrong. The secret to deal or no deal is to trade your case. The first case you pick is 1/26 but then you get asked to change your case after already getting rid of a certain amount of cases. Let's say 13 cases are gone. And they ask you to switch. You immediately just changed ur 1/26 odds to 1/13 so when they ask you to change your case at the end when there's only 2 or 3 cases left you just changed ur 1/26 odd to 2/3. Basic math
@@TheWalkThrewer at no point do they offer for you to change cases.
@@TheWalkThrewernoooo
you don’t have a 1/26 chance because there’s opportunities to pull out or pick another case, so it has to be someone who rides it out AND had a million in their case
Let me reach $200k, I’d be like I’m good.
Like he said, I’m good with 50k lmao. 50k richer than before, plus greed gets ya no where hahah
Shiiiit 50or 100k cuz ima invest in realestate
@@chris-cy5edthat’s what they all say when they don’t have it
@@MohamedAhmed0912 lmao what does that even mean? if they had it they wouldn't? bros needlessly angry from getting bullied or abused is my guess
@@JoeG71299wow thanks for reiterating the exact point of the video
I always felt that I’d be no fun on that show. The first offer of $32,000 I’m hitting the deal button and making my victory lap around the studio.
It's not guaranteed you'll get $32K on your first offer, since the offers are a root mean square of the cases still in play. But yeah, I get it. However, this is the opportunity of a lifetime. And you also want to keep a good amount, after taxes.
@@joeybaseball7352
Would the show have gotten on the air if every contestant accepted the first offer?
@@giantsr1eva they have an audition process to weed out any possible weak or submissive contestants. You won't make on the show if you're spineless and gutless. But humans have an inherent need to gamble. People only tend to be conservative with money when it's their own. I can't tell you how many people have told me stories about how they had the opportunity to invest in [insert well known fortune 500 company here] at the ground floor, way before they blew up, and they would now be a millionaire had they did. But when you're playing with the house's money, most people aren't gonna stop at the first deal. How many people go to a free buffet, and only get one small plate of food? I can tell you that almost nobody would take a deal for $12K when they have a chance at a million.
Also that million dollar prize after taxes would be around 400k
My stepmom was on this shows first season when I was a kid. My whole family including me was in the audience it was really cool! She left with 85k or 86k and the case she chose had $50 in it! I wish I could say it changed our lives but the most it did for our family of 9 at the time was a new car. Crazy experience that I’ll never forget!
woulda settled for the 50k and went tf home 😭
Nah, the true alpha move is to go 2 or 3 rounds and then bail, or if you're crazy, you go down to the last and bail, or for crack heads the case you didn't pick has a 25/26 chance of being the one
@@anthonyewell3470 you have the option of switching cases if you go all the way to the end. And based on the Monty Hall Problem, it's best to switch.
@@joeybaseball7352 I think the maths works out differently though, because you're not guaranteed 1 good option and two bad ones, there may be three decent options, 1 bad option and two good ones, all bad.
Also, Monty Hall works because you receive information by having one of the bad options revealed to you, without it, it's a 1/3 no matter what you do.
@@anthonyewell3470after 3 rounds the offer would’ve been a comfortable $80k if you played it well, I would go one more good round and walk away with 6 figures
Anything over 250,000 I’m taking immediately anything under that but over 75,000 ima have to think for a bit 😂
remember that taxes on "gifts" (which is what "winnings" are classified as) is 50%
@@blest5132 are you kidding me no it's not not even close. well maybe a little close In some circumstances but a quick Google search says tax on gifts range from eighteen to forty percent I know it's not 50% because there is no tax that taxes you 50%😂. Why answer something like this when you have no idea what you're talkin about😂. And I highly doubt anyone gets taxed the 40%. I imagine most people would get tax closer to 18% than 40
@@blest5132 I'd still take the 35k. no problem
I'm taking 75k too 😂😂😂
@@SteezLouise forreal lol this comment is exactly what the video is explaining. I’d fucking walk away with $5,000 are you kidding me?
You offer me $50,000 and I'm OUTTIE. That would change my life.
They pick idiots on purpose I'm sure. Its more entertaining then a smart person showing up and taking the first offer.
I don't think so
I watched an episode where a guy who was a preacher had amassed 133,000 dollars. He could have took it and walked, greed took over. He lost it all, left empty handed. That show revealed a bit about human nature. PS, Meaghan Markel was one of the briefcase models on that show.
That pastor should’ve know greed is a sin. So who ever goes to his church is stupid
@@joemontes4658 His church?
Going to church at all is the stupid part
@@NotASeriousMooseJesus Christ is the way, the truth, and the life!
@@NotASeriousMoose Jesus loves you 😊🙏❤️✝️🤗
When people apply to be on the show they do alot of background checks. They choose people that have no idea of gambling statistics . They pick people that believe in luck.
They also choose needy people, which I always like. People making $15K a year, and this could actually change their life.
facts, if I opened a briefcase for 50K I'm not even hesitating I'm taking that shit and dipping
Yes
It didn't work that way i don't think. They'd make offer & then open cases revealing money that's off the table. You want high money cases on the board
@@LM-ys8kr that's correct basically during the game you start picking cases and those values are revealed because they're out of the game
These people go after desperate people or greedy people. If they used normal people the show wouldn't be interesting because we would all take a deal once it hit 100k
Nah it's just a psychological thing for anyone that doesn't get game theory. You actually form an almost irrational attachment to the case you have, and the difference between winning 50k vs 500k makes people want to gamble.
@@nuyabuisness7526 can say it right now you don't understand game theory.
“what’s the most anyone ever won” is really one of those questions you should be asking google _before_ you have this guest on haha
I’m taking the first deal over $5000
That's nothing.
I wanna go on there and take the first deal.
It was like $10,000 when the average winnings was 100k+, Howie was high here
I was never into this show because I would just do the math and accept the first offer that exceeds the expected value of the game.
From a mathematical standpoint, it's a VERY simple game:
Add up all the prizes remaining, divide by the number of cases remaining. That's the expected value of the game. If you played to the last case a thousand times from this point, that's how much the outcomes would average out to.
You're being offered a sum to STOP playing. If the sum you're being offered exceeds the expected value of the game, then accept it. Sure, you MIGHT end up with more if you keep playing, but it's statistically unlikely. How unlikely? You can calculate that, too.
Take the number of cases ABOVE that expected value and divide by the total number of cases remaining. That's your probability of exceeding the expected value. And given how the case values are distributed, it was always quite low.
Thanks for taking the time to type this, very insightful.
That’s what the dealer does brother
For the record, according to Wikipedia:
"The Banker's offer is typically a percentage of the average of the values still in play at the end of each round. This percentage is small in the early rounds, but increases as the game continues and can even exceed 100% in very late rounds."
which suggests that it's almost always smarter to wait for a better offer even if the current offer is higher than the average
"Peoples greed out weighs reality" if that were true people would win 1 million once every 26 episodes. The fact that they didnt proves they are willing to take less than whats in their box.
I was looking for someone to say this.
That's not the way probability works. Each show the probability of winning 1 mil is 1/26. So the next show the odds are still 1/26 not 2/26 cause it's the 2nd show 😂
@@jessicadunford7629 First you have to have the assumption that no one ever takes a deal because, as Howie said, "peoples greed out weights reality", which is simply not true because most people who would have won the mill did infact take a deal before they got to that point.
But if no one did take deals then you have an expected value of winning at 1/26. And though each constant has the same odds of winning you can expect a convergence in distribution. In the same way that if you flip a fair coin 10 times you "might" end up with 8 heads and 2 tails, but if you continue to flip that coin 1000 times you will begin to regress to the mean of 500 and 500 within a margin.
And so, if you look at Deal or No Deal given they had over 300 episodes and some episodes had multiple contestants you're looking at 400 to 500 total constants, meaning you'd expect 15 to 20 people to win. Though they only had 4 winners, however I'd bet they had closer to 15 to 20 people actually pick the million dollar case, most of those people just took deals.
This is infact how probability works. 👍
The IRS always won that show
Fam if he called and said 10k I’d be outttt
Howie “The Prolapse King” Mandel will always be FAMILY.
Bro if they offer me 100 bucks I’d probably take it hahahaha
It’s all based on like the endowment effect and a couple other things, like they use reverse psychology and what not, but what interest me most is why no one just didn’t take the 50k, it’s like you’re guaranteed a a good amount of money or a chance
At life changing money. Idk maybe it’s just me but the 50k seems good to me
Always watched the show and thought damn that first $10k offer I'm jumping on it lol
If I remember correctly, no one wins 1 million US on Deal or No Deal in standard configuration, lots of them pick a million case but dealt before that. 2 winners come from "Million Dollar Mission" with more than one-million-dollar case in a game.
yup that's correct
Thank you Howie, "people's greed..." It always amazes me on that show or like that Wayne Brady show how greedy people are. But it's still hard to watch when people lose shit is heart wrenching.
I wouldn't hesitate to just keep the 50k as soon as asked.
Bragging about leaving +EV money on the table is odd
If the show still going on , how do I get on 😂😂
Yes. On May 12, 2023, it was announced that Deal or No Deal would be revived and retitled as Deal or No Deal Island and is said to be a mix of, "the original long-running format and Survivor". The new series is set to air on NBC, which aired the original series from 2005 to 2009.
If most people took the first deal, there wouldn't be a show.
Shit if I got 3000 I’m taking it lol
My family friend was on the show, great watch party
It's easy for a millionaire to talk about broke peoples greed.
This doesn’t ruin his point, still speaks the truth, if the banker offers you $375,000 when there’s 4 cases left why wouldn’t you take that? Greed.
“Broke” most of those people were likely middle class
And he’s right, you know. A lot of people got offered money that was upwards of $1 million and still tried to take the risk of going for the million
If people are on there for money, why not take the most you can get with the least amount of risk?
broke losers will always complain about rich people.
He’s not talking about broke people. It’s legit jsut the horrible way the human brain processes probability sometimes
@@cyanidegrapes Bro that makes no sense you just said “‘Most of those people got offered upwards of 1 million to take the risk of going for a million”.
If 1 million is the maximum prize why would they offer over 1 million and then the person choose to LOSE money to win 1 million.
You trying to act smart and you just dropped the dumbest advice ever
If they’d chosen anyone who had a basic understanding of probability…
One of my best mates won it on the original (as always) British version and it was all spent within 2 years now he lives in a council house (projects).
What he spend it on
1st offer I get I’m cashing out 😂😂
$5
@@firefly9838 like people are really ignorant when they say that. Cause literally the first offer could be 5 bucks 😂😂. It’s literally not about greed cause if they say no deal and keep going. How can u call him greedy. The point of the game is to win the mill. The point of any game is to win correct lmfao.
It either go big or go home. It was greed, just people having fun with the game🤷🏿♂️
That’s literal greed my dude.
@@calebblack1420no it’s not
@twm yeah it is.
And it is also STUPIDITY 🤣
I wouldn’t always say greed, some may have done it for the pure fact that they came there with nothing and leaving with nothing is equal to the enjoyment of just participating in the production.
Makes for good content though lol. I'd always watch that show with my mom when I was little.
The only episode I'll never forget was a guy picking 18 because of Peyton Manning. He made it all the way to the end and chose not to take what was in his case, and dammit he had that million in case number 18
Good thing it was on TV I’m sure Peyton Manning reached out 💰
Yea im not taking 50,000 after 6 cases either tbh
The contestants arent random. They screen and specifically pick out these people.
2 people won the million dollar cash prize on DOND! It was Jessica Robinson and Tomorrow Rodriguez.
Legends.
Well they knew the risk..
I came in with no money. I’m fine leaving with no money.
But u missed out on a half a hundred thousand or a couple hundred thousand cause you were too dumb
Coulda left with LOTS of money tho
Naw you’ll be sick to your stomach if you had the opportunity to win six figures lol
Stupid, you don’t get to be on the show a million times
It’s not greed. I’ve always said I’d go until the end because I have nothing to lose
Does anyone remember the episode were a contestant was given an offer for like a lifetime supply of root beer? 😂
Yummm...
Brooks Leach.
The first deal was always horrible… nobody should ever take it
I use to watch this show and seeing people pass up on hundreds of thousands of dollars just for a chance at a few extra hundred thousand showed me how privileged and how stupid some people are, and yes, it was always satisfying watching those people walk home with $1 when they couldn't had hundreds of thousands.
Making stupid financial decisions doesn't make you privileged, it almost always makes you poor.
I don't think you know what the word privileged means.
They definitely weren’t privileged. Howie would talk about how some contestants are drowning in debt / paycheque to paycheque. Just greed and not logical
The fact that he thinks giving up a guaranteed 50k$ is greed, boggles my mind. What disconnect.
It is greed wym? You can walk out of there with a guaranteed 50k or walk out with nothing
That logic makes no sense. 1 out of 26 people should have won but taking the deal early would mean that only 1 out of 26 people who went all the way would win.
Howie isn’t that smart.
He’s doing a cover version of Noel edmunds the man that came up with mr blobby.
😂
I’ve watched and researched a lot of deal or no deal, that is absolutely not what happens lol. Idk how Howie of all people could butcher this so badly but the first offer was always around 10k or so, which is like 10% of what you would be expected to win if you play the game to the end (~$135,000) - so no, taking that would literally be the absolute worst move possible lol.
The game is structured so that the last offer (sometimes last two), is better than risking and going for the million. For example, if you have 500k and 1mil left, the banker might offer 850k which you should always accept because if you risk it you’re going to get an average of 750k instead, that’s a big factor for lack of million dollar winners
The game is actually quite simple from a strategy standpoint - you play as deep as you can because the longer you play the higher the amounts the banker will offer relative to your expected winnings, at the same time you should be managing risk and accepting the offer when you only have one high amount left so you’re not walking away with the low amounts and playing for$100
You’re acting like a genius when you just explained the most basic obvious shit about deal or no deal
@@iamrolfie3755 he's giving a good explanation for smooth brains like me. I appreciate his comment and id appreciate it you would go play in traffic
Thanks for this. People in these comments are just blowing air
yeah dude, because the producers hand picked people who were likely to make bad decisions. Howie probably left that show with a manufactured complex that everyone on his show was an idiot.
50 grand to me is a million dollars lol
Once u get it you’ll realise 50k is nothing 😢 trust me
For almost every game show, I would always go for the biggest prize. You only have something to win and nothing to lose, so I would always go for the grand prize, and if I dont get it, then O well, I go back to living my life.
No you wouldnt otherwise youd be living that lifestyle and rich or dead already 😂
If u had an offer for 645k and there were still 6 cases left 1 with a million what would u do?
@Red in a game show, I definitely would because there is nothing to lose. 1 dollar or a million dollars, you are winning something for free, so i would always try and go for the biggest prize. Other aspects of life no, but it is a game show not selling a company.
@Noodle go for the million. Even if I ended up winning a dollar, i would rather have the chance to win 1 million.
I always said that the second I get my first offer. I would say deal. Not like you're going to lose anything. The chance to win more or lose it all. I would rather go home ahead
The first offer is literally 10% of the average and expected winnings, you’re an idiot. The way the game is structured you can pick the top 2 values in the first round and the next offer will still go up, you’re an idiot
"It took 3 years to give away the first million" and then it's either edited or his incorrect logic says "because people's greed.." The only way to win a million dollars in the game is to select the million dollar case. The banker in the game will never offer you $1 million...
I think he just meant that everyone in the show relied on luck and didn't pick the good offers including whoever got the Million dollars who won it out of luck or the will of the producers.
He meant a combined $1mil. He was talking about how many people left with nothing because they greeded for the 1mil
Shit I was taking the fisrt 100,000 that’s said.
I would enjoy $250,000.00.
Can't complain with that.
The odds were about 75% to pick a case with less than $100,000 in it. Unless you can manage to stay ahead of the odds, you need to get out before it turns against you.
It’s not so much greed as a failure to understand the probability.
And now those people are struggling with $50,000 of debt and if they would’ve just taken the $50,000, they could’ve been living their best life with all their bills paid off😂 but they were just too greedy to be happy. He dug the hole, and now they live in it.
Or... they would have spent that 50k on stupid shit and still be 50k in debt.
50k after taxes lol prob come with with 9-12k lol
thats 50k before taxes and gameshows are taxed notoriously high there was a guy who won 30k on wheel of fortune and came out with 6k dollars after taxes
It’s a tv show.
Keep in mind, the IRS gets 1/3 just for your hard work and winning. So that million? Only 666k after taxes. 200k? Nope more like 140 after taxes…
The house/government always wins.
Yeah I don’t think anyone is gonna bitch too much about 666k for playing a game
A penny? Naw they split a third off that penny 😂
Its absolutely ridiculous they do this. The government is just like the mafia. "Oh you won a prize? Oh ok where is my prize? You gotta kick up I gotta to get a taste, get my beak wet" You won, the government had nothing to do with it
Oh no the government took some free money from me and all i got in return are roads, an education system, libraries, science grants, social services, etc etc.
Want to not contribute financially to society? Go live alone in a remote area, or start working towards an organized no property anti capitalism anarchy.
My wife loved this show, the thing is she played on the Wii and Dave Buster has won a million every time. She could guess the case every time!
my aide is like that, I bought the home version of the game with the money cards that go into the mini cases, we always put them facedown then shuffle them then I usually randomly grab a card and randomly decide which case to put it in.
I usually act as the Host and Banker when she plays as the contestant and somehow she almost always finds the 1 million as her final case usually it's the 1 that she picked.
As a kid, I always remember thinking that I would leave regardless on the very first bank number revealed. Guess I would have beat the system. The amount they are almost given almost always beats the amount they receive in the end.
The average of the 26 cases is 136k$. Declining 50k$ is not really the worst decision. You are more likely to make over 50k$ on the average game of deal or no deal. With the worst possible outcome from the first 6 cases you still have a value of 13k$ average. Id say trying to get around 80k$+ is very resonable strategy. Its all luck but you gotta play the maths if they are in your favor. Now getting the actual million is greed😂
Median is better to use here because of the skew that the million and 500k bring to the average. The median case is between $750 and, $1000, so $875. Makes $50k seem like an amazing deal
@@paullarson5644 that’s not how the banker works median is not relevant until you have to pick the same or more number of “high” cases there are
The first offer was never even 50k! It was like 10% of your expected value, so around 10k. And yea the second offer would be like 30% expected value then 50% then 70%, then 90%. People in the comments bragging about not playing when they promise to make you better offers the longer you play, you just have to make sure you keep at least 1 of the high values and you’ll make at least 50k no matter what. Bunch of fools here fr
It’s not rigged, it’s just called statistics.
Its more so the banker giving out low ball offers, so there's little incentive to take the deal
It's a game and they have nothing to loose. Rich people will never understand. Money really doesn't matter.
Wouldn’t have a show if they took the first offer every time
true and odds are your show isn't going to be on TV if it's not a good enough show.
God damn these people are nuts. Just play it mathematically sound and let the results be the results! If I got an offer of like 30k I might take it IF it's the right move. But that's cause I'm brokeeee
sadly that's part of the game since you want it to be entertaining, not too embarrassing and not too quick because if your show isn't entertaining then they have no reason to pay you since generally that only goes out once your show airs.
"Because of peoples' greed, they would go 'no deal, no deal'
The only way to win the million is to go no deal on the way
American education + American healthcare = endless supply of 🤦 contestants
“Hey! That’s five dollars more than me!” -someone’s dad in the audience
What got me is NO ONE EVER SWAPPED CASES AT THE END! You dramatically increase your odds if you swap.
No you dont
50k is about two annual paychecks for me. I’d happily take that deal
keep in mind that it'd be taxed so you wouldn't be getting 50k.
I pick case 1 - open every case in record time and leave with 1
wouldn't be possible to do that since you only control what to choose, the Producers tell everyone else to slow things down with opening the cases if things are going too fast.
You can’t accept the first offer. Now, the second off is in play if the offer is high enough.
Id be happy with whats left of 50k after taxes man. The pressure from being on the spot has got to be otherworldly though.. a crowd yelling at you... intense
He’s rich so he will never get WANTING a million dollars lol
I look like howie..when I would ask my dealer for a front..he would say deal if it was a go..and if he didn't want to...he would say no deal!!!😂😂
My dad would always get mad.... take the money!!! Lol!
I used to always say, if a case said 20k i woulda took my 20k & went tf home off the 1st case
then odds are you're not getting the money since the money generally only comes if the show airs. Also, that's not how the show works, the cases you're opening during the game are the values that are removed from the game.
Translation: Just like the bank, the lottery and even your job what you put in ain’t always what you gon get out. The more you move up in a job the more you get payed right but that’s more they take out your check. The lottery you’ve got 2 choices a large lump some or you can get a percentage every month until it’s all distributed out then they take taxes from it. And the bank always claim they’ve misplaced your money.
I love how he talks down on people about “greed” while he sits there with $500 shades and hosts a game show about money where he’s the middle man that makes “deals” with a dark figure who flaunts money in front of you..
The problem is they had all these high middle class AHoles and 50k is not really enough for them try putting average people. Insurance companies often close big liability claims for like 20k making a killing with their risk management for people who are really hurt but need the momey.
Ill never forget a lady was supposedly a die hard new york jets fan, she got offered like 200k plus a huge amount of Jets memorabilia including an entire year of season tickets. She ended up settling for a 5 figure deal, so not nothing, but i couldnt believe that. She was probably just role playing the part of being a fan
Its a game of math and fluctuating probability.
Howie dressed like a high school teenager is so great
anything over $50k, I'm walking.
Tell me you're gonna give me a life changing chunk of money, DEAL I'm out.
what howie doesnt understand is when poor people are getting a chance to win a million if they leave with $5 they are in no worse a spot than they were when they came on. being poor is a strength sometimes
If they didn’t do that you wouldn’t have a show, it’s also peer pressure
Indeed.
What he said made no sense.
The *only* way to get $1m is to go all the way, and he said people kept rejecting deals.
It sounds profound, but what he is describes is just how the game works. It isn't about picking the best case to begin with and going home with it, it's about beating the banker by leveraging your potential. But most people just decide to gamble and hope they end up with more than the bank is offering.