I disagree with Vaclav on fossil fuels. Peak oil doesn`t mean we are running out of oil. There will be always resources in the ground but at what price. Analyzing how much is left is meaningless. Who cares for 300 billion barrels from tar sands in Canada when the economy can`t function at that price. We have rising production but from unprofitable sources like shale oil from US which accounts for 90% incrase in global supply. Only reason America is increasing the production is because of quantitative easing, easy credit and record low interest rates. Show me where are those cheap sources of fuel Vaclav. The era of cheap and easy to access oil is over and maximum production of conventional sources was in 2005. We have about one trillion more relatively cheap barrels to consume and thats it.
Smil’s solution for the future of low carbon is a wide scale social change to use less energy by making energy expensive again as it was in the 60s. That’s feasible, but a very heavy lift with all kinds of regressive problems for instance (recall in the 60s it was only the ‘beautiful’ people that flew), and it probably never gets any traction in the places where it matters like China. Yet he admits that nuclear power technically and economically works in Asia, is built on time etc ( and has worked for several decades in high nuclear share countries like France). Therefore we know the impediment for nuclear in the West is not technical, not economic, but social-political. I suggest the social lift required for nuclear is far lighter than the low energy solution Smil proposes, in which we all squish into the back of his Honda on the way to sleep in his basement.
Hehe, well said! Mr Smil's ingenious capitalist "solution" is to further impoverish the poor while leaving the so-called "elites" (like himself) free to continue their jet-setting lifestyles plus incessant promotion of insanely wasteful wars for Empire. The optimal solution of course is a thorough-going revolution to remove the warcriminal capitalist mafia from power, install Socialism and world peace, then open-source all knowledge to collaboratively build society globally for the betterment of the vast majority, i.e. the workers who actually produce all the wealth these capitalist parasites specialise in stealing & hoarding for themselves.
@@foobarrel9046 Before installing “socialism” as a solution for the environment, you might look at the record of the USSR, who had by far the worst environmental disasters of all time. Good grief, the Soviets destroyed an entire inland sea, the Aral. It’s just gone. Imagine Lake Michigan just simply vanished, to bring about the socialist utopia.
@@Nill757 Stalinism was not Socialism, my friend. And Lake Mead has just about dried up with only capitalist mismanagement of the environment, so it's not like the Soviets had a patent on creating such disasters.
15:10 I would say we had those low energy prices for polluting electricity, because we offset the price to nature. The world chose to produce this cheap energy while ofsetting the costs to the environment. In other words, for decades, we have been paying too little for electricity.
For decades, we have been mining for the manufacture of completely frivolous and ridiculous consumer products, and yes, cars cars and more cars... and now we have painted ourselves into a corner, that we will never get out of. SIXTH MASS EXTINCTION, ANYONE?
What about the vanadium batteries for utility scale? I know it will take 100 yrs but hopefully we switch away from fossil fuels before we run out of affordable supplies. I agree we need to use a lot less energy. It would be nice if life was more like th 1970s when we were poor and happy. We had no a/c or heat in the house and just used a box fan (in 110 degree weather). Windows down when we drove anywhere which was rare. Our home was a trailer with similar layout to Tiny Homes I am glad to see becoming trendy! The McMansions always creeped me out. Stay home, relax, and consume less. Life doesn't have to be so rushed.
I wrote down some notes and key takeaways from this presentation and posted them on my website: sundaynewsletter.com/february-video-summaries/vaclav-smil-lecture-on-energy-transitions/
Hon sir a note I mean a whole subject of climate change was revised by myself the causes effects and solutions to German govt this was in co incident to their call to write on this subject a major problem faced now a letter was email to me but carona crisis arises and I could not deepen the activity nice on hearing your speech hon smil sir pleased and feel proud of you thnx
While I enjoy Vaclav Smil's talks and books - just trying to fact check the claim that the US reduced 12% more than Germany over the same period 1990-2017. The first link shows epa greenhouse gas emissions www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks seems to be about the same amount of emissions while there is a rise and then a fall in 2008 (due to the economic slowdown) Germany's emissions are down 27.5% from 1990 according to this link www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-climate-targets. Unless it's linked to GDP or something. IN SHORT: US 1990 5.035 billion tonnes 2017 5.131 billion tonnes Germany 1990 1.251 Billion tonnes 2017 907 Billion tonnes.
"The claim that the US reduced 12% more than Germany over the same period 1990-2017" was never made. They've reduced about the same rate (12% vs 11%) but by using natural gas instead of less effective and significantly more expensive renewables.
Burning kerosine instead of powering a 65W laptop should be considered a crime against humanity, don't you think? :D Václav, please lead us by example not only of triple glass windows, but attending and promoting virtual conferences. Thank you!
So good indeed. Laws come and go, using bureaucrats and influencing politicians to change the law so that they will fit your agenda is akin to breaking the law in the first place. Ethics and Morals are the main victims of the 21st century Western's civilization
Yes! A new Vaclav Smil video! Thank you!
Would love to have more, and also a broad Q&A opportunity if you don’t have Bill Gates money to fly him in for a few days of private discussion
I disagree with Vaclav on fossil fuels. Peak oil doesn`t mean we are running out of oil. There will be always resources in the ground but at what price. Analyzing how much is left is meaningless. Who cares for 300 billion barrels from tar sands in Canada when the economy can`t function at that price. We have rising production but from unprofitable sources like shale oil from US which accounts for 90% incrase in global supply. Only reason America is increasing the production is because of quantitative easing, easy credit and record low interest rates. Show me where are those cheap sources of fuel Vaclav. The era of cheap and easy to access oil is over and maximum production of conventional sources was in 2005. We have about one trillion more relatively cheap barrels to consume and thats it.
Thank you.
So good. He has the best metrics and amazing memory of all of them.
Smil’s solution for the future of low carbon is a wide scale social change to use less energy by making energy expensive again as it was in the 60s. That’s feasible, but a very heavy lift with all kinds of regressive problems for instance (recall in the 60s it was only the ‘beautiful’ people that flew), and it probably never gets any traction in the places where it matters like China.
Yet he admits that nuclear power technically and economically works in Asia, is built on time etc ( and has worked for several decades in high nuclear share countries like France). Therefore we know the impediment for nuclear in the West is not technical, not economic, but social-political. I suggest the social lift required for nuclear is far lighter than the low energy solution Smil proposes, in which we all squish into the back of his Honda on the way to sleep in his basement.
I am about to read hist book "energy and civilisation, a history". looks like going to be a rollercoaster ride
Who said you have to squish into the back of his honda and sleep in his basement... you did..what a load of rubbish...not relevant.
Hehe, well said!
Mr Smil's ingenious capitalist "solution" is to further impoverish the poor while leaving the so-called "elites" (like himself) free to continue their jet-setting lifestyles plus incessant promotion of insanely wasteful wars for Empire. The optimal solution of course is a thorough-going revolution to remove the warcriminal capitalist mafia from power, install Socialism and world peace, then open-source all knowledge to collaboratively build society globally for the betterment of the vast majority, i.e. the workers who actually produce all the wealth these capitalist parasites specialise in stealing & hoarding for themselves.
@@foobarrel9046 Before installing “socialism” as a solution for the environment, you might look at the record of the USSR, who had by far the worst environmental disasters of all time. Good grief, the Soviets destroyed an entire inland sea, the Aral. It’s just gone. Imagine Lake Michigan just simply vanished, to bring about the socialist utopia.
@@Nill757 Stalinism was not Socialism, my friend. And Lake Mead has just about dried up with only capitalist mismanagement of the environment, so it's not like the Soviets had a patent on creating such disasters.
Great scientist from Czechia.
15:10 I would say we had those low energy prices for polluting electricity, because we offset the price to nature. The world chose to produce this cheap energy while ofsetting the costs to the environment. In other words, for decades, we have been paying too little for electricity.
For decades, we have been mining for the manufacture of completely frivolous and ridiculous consumer products, and yes, cars cars and more cars... and now we have painted ourselves into a corner, that we will never get out of. SIXTH MASS EXTINCTION, ANYONE?
That EV segment was a huge oof
WHAT A GUY!!!
Thank you for sharing this. Is there a way to get the slides for this?
I see it is listed as "not available" on the website.
just read his books... you will find it.
AHH vaclav looks mumbling so much that most of the time i cant catch what the hell hes saying
What about the vanadium batteries for utility scale? I know it will take 100 yrs but hopefully we switch away from fossil fuels before we run out of affordable supplies. I agree we need to use a lot less energy. It would be nice if life was more like th 1970s when we were poor and happy. We had no a/c or heat in the house and just used a box fan (in 110 degree weather). Windows down when we drove anywhere which was rare. Our home was a trailer with similar layout to Tiny Homes I am glad to see becoming trendy! The McMansions always creeped me out. Stay home, relax, and consume less. Life doesn't have to be so rushed.
BINGO.
batteries = 27:23
He’s a Data hawk of the highest order
If energy ministers around the world, all met with Vaclav for a few days, we could almost go toward solving the energy crisis
Possible to get his slides somewhere?
WHAT A FUCKING GUY!!!
I wrote down some notes and key takeaways from this presentation and posted them on my website: sundaynewsletter.com/february-video-summaries/vaclav-smil-lecture-on-energy-transitions/
Thanks for this.
@@Redexn For sure!
Thank you! I will look it up.
@@yangxiao3925 Absolutely!
Very interesting, but I really need the subtitles because the speaker is speaking too quick and is not so clearly understoot; which is a real pity.
Hon sir a note I mean a whole subject of climate change was revised by myself the causes effects and solutions to German govt this was in co incident to their call to write on this subject a major problem faced now a letter was email to me but carona crisis arises and I could not deepen the activity nice on hearing your speech hon smil sir pleased and feel proud of you thnx
hydrogen with heppolt wind will change ad the fastest time first constant 1.5 GW 24/7/360 base load
Brilliant. Is there a transcript of this lecture anywhere?
No wonder he is called the 'Bullshit Slayer'.
Peak oil is not an issue?
Great!
Awesome!
If only Extinction Rebellion listened to this and realized social mobilization is only melodrama.
While I enjoy Vaclav Smil's talks and books - just trying to fact check the claim that the US reduced 12% more than Germany over the same period 1990-2017. The first link shows epa greenhouse gas emissions www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks seems to be about the same amount of emissions while there is a rise and then a fall in 2008 (due to the economic slowdown) Germany's emissions are down 27.5% from 1990 according to this link www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-climate-targets. Unless it's linked to GDP or something. IN SHORT: US 1990 5.035 billion tonnes 2017 5.131 billion tonnes Germany 1990 1.251 Billion tonnes 2017 907 Billion tonnes.
You are talking about the entire country's emissions, he is talking about the electricity sector alone.
"The claim that the US reduced 12% more than Germany over the same period 1990-2017" was never made. They've reduced about the same rate (12% vs 11%) but by using natural gas instead of less effective and significantly more expensive renewables.
Burning kerosine instead of powering a 65W laptop should be considered a crime against humanity, don't you think? :D
Václav, please lead us by example not only of triple glass windows, but attending and promoting virtual conferences. Thank you!
Tell me the difference between someone who breaks te law, and someone who uses bureaucrats to use the laws in their advantage and I'll shut up
Breaking the law is a crime (by definition), the other option is not.
So good indeed. Laws come and go, using bureaucrats and influencing politicians to change the law so that they will fit your agenda is akin to breaking the law in the first place. Ethics and Morals are the main victims of the 21st century Western's civilization