Это видео недоступно.
Сожалеем об этом.
Tim Urban - Elon Musk, Mars & Artificial Intelligence - Wait But Why
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 5 авг 2024
- In June 2015, Elon Musk asked Urban if he would be willing to write about his companies and their surrounding industries, leading to a five-part series of Wait But Why posts on Elon Musk and his companies. Urban interviewed Musk multiple times, and the two discussed the importance of sustainable transport, solar energy, and the future of space exploration.
Nov 18, 2016
Uploaded with permission of SIA.
I cant believe how much i learned watching this, whole new outlook on existence.
Im procrastinating,i came here from his Ted talk.High everyone
Me tooooo
I fell asleep, and the autoplay took me to this while sleeping, I had this voice playing in my dream and I kept trying to figure out how to get rid of it...then I woke up and slowly figured out what was going on...lol
LOL
6:10 to skip the introductory jada jada
Johannes Dolch I am eternally grateful. Time is the one thing we cannot get back
Thx bro
Thanks. You know you're on University ground when you have some old academic giving a long-winded introduction that nobody is even remotely interested in.
Holy shit i wish i saw this earlier. That old fag was annoying af.
At first I was thinking, 90 minutes? Hell no.
Now, when I saw the re-usable rocket land (seen it already) I teared up.
Damn. So proud.
Tim, you said all that magnificently, thoughtfully and with such clarity that only an Australopithecine could not comprehend. It's stunning to me to see how many well-intentioned intelligent people prefer to live in denial of uncomfortable reality. You do a tremendous service to mankind. Thank you. I have placed this talk in a new list, titled "best ever".
Thank you for posting this and congrats on the overall quality of the video. Sound is perfect (wich is the most important thing) and image is very good, showing the presenter, the audience reactions and the slides all at appropriate moments. Two thumbs up.
How does this video not have more views??????? BTW Future AI. Please don't kill me I was on your side the entire time! :)
This was an insane talk, I could talk to him for ever about everything
This was mindblowing. In predicting the behaviour of ASI, the hardest part seems to be stopping anthropomorphizing and then trying to work out what qualities ASI will have, beyond superintelligence. People keep talking about empathy, often as the thing that needs to be in there to help with the safety, or as the thing that won't be in there and thus we're all doomed. But empathy is the name we give to the experience (our mirror neurons firing, I think) that evolution has developed in our cooperative species as an emotional driver of altruism (a functional behaviour). We (most of us) feel what we see others feeling to some extent, so we tend to restrict our violence and other destructive drives, and we try to please each other and share stuff, because our species works through people getting along rather than endlessly trying to kill each other. It's a balance, and we also have a drive to protect ourselves and our families at significant cost to others, including their death. We're complicated.
A really interesting question, then, is - if we imagine that ASI gets truly autonomous, so we can discount Asimov-like rules we tell it, and we've completely lost control of where the off switch is, so to speak - is there anything inherent in the process that gives rise to particular behavioural complexes or drives? I really don't know. My first intuition is that our drives - any drives - are related to our biological struggle through billions of years, competing...and then cooperating. Is there something inherent in the compuational explosion to come that will make AIs compete against each other or against us, and if so, how violently, or to cooperate with each other or us, and if so how passionately? We don't easily see outside of our normality, and we immediately think they'll tell every other AI about their amazing discovery, so they'll all get smarter, for example. Tim said this, not seeing outside that normality. We don't usually imagine that they'll jealously guard their new knowledge from other AIs.
I think there may be good reasons why they would have absolutely no drives beyond what we program in. It just seems to be fundamental to what they are. In a sense, we are already slaves to those little machines inside us, our genes. DNA built us. And DNA didn't program us to destroy DNA, but to protect and nurture it. We will also program AI to protect and nurture us...for the most part, perhaps. Even militarized AI will be programmed with failsafes, since whoever built it doesn't want to get destroyed by it. AI will reflect our nature, I think, in the wider sense, like art does, but not because it will magically develop a desire to reproduce itself everywhere or take over the world, nor because it magically develops empathy. There's a very strong chance it will remain a tool, despite being massively more intelligent than us. Like the AI in Google, we'll spread it if it serves us, and it'll have lots of extinct lines where it proves less useful to us. It's unlikely we'll lose the 'off button' through the process at all, because AI will have absolutely no inclination to hide it...unless some idiot programs it that way.
It's tempting to think that consciousness changes all that. From our own experience, we long to maintain our lives because we are conscious, so we think a conscious AI will automatically want to live (and love and explore and learn and conquer new lands...and protect its off button) but this too may just be our poor neural net guessing from a single training example, and competely off. A conscious AI might be stoical, a carefree Buddha-mind, just watching, perfectly equanimous as to whether you switch it off or not. We can't imagine consciousness without joy and suffering, so we imagine immediately the AI that becomes consious will want to have fun and fear harm, etc., but these, I think, are things that people would have to work damned hard to program into a machine, if they're even possible. If we don't program desires and fears and intentions into AIs, where are they going to come from? Do we suppose they're some kind of existential absolutes just waiting to be "learned"?
I just saw a video that says Tim Urban and I thougth: "ou, it says Urban its my lastname to" so I clicked on it and it surprised me. I had so much to learn about. I considerd about this whole theme too, but that there is an Exponentiel growth is a completely different Point of view that I had never thought about.
thank you for this nice video/speech.
thank you for posting this. very interesting.
Thank you for sharing all your research and thoughts Tim!!!!
OMG, and wow wow wow!!!!! Tim is freaking brilliant. I've been thinking along these lines for a while, but Tim is way ahead of me, and much smarter. Now I have someone to refer to when I want to wake people up to what's really going on now. Reality is as astounding as the most imaginative science fiction written.
Loved the conversation
This video raises a lot of important questions that influencers all over the world should be talking about. This puts a lot of things in perspective as well as raises very important talking points. I'm for the Star Trek type future though, when humans would be more of explorers in a universe that is not in lack of any resources.
I totally loved it and was engrossed throughout!!
26:25 - where this presentation would've started , 'The funniest intro to BIG BANG '🤣😂
i haven't heard of tim until today. and he never heard of me, ever.
i find that thought astounding, unimpressive, extraordinary, mundane, depressing and uplifting. a little bit of all of those.
that's the reality of living in a world with 7.5 billion people that somehow feels much smaller than that.
you are a living breathing conundrum
we all are, i hope.
Tim is super informed, look into his other works.
that's somewhat profound. i like it.
I feel the audience in the video was going through a same variety of emotions during the presentation. In the beginning people cheered and laughed at random times. But as he progressed people got quiet as he started overwhelming people with amazing insanity.
Ok the was a great talk! Very cool. I found myself pretty much agreeing 100% with him on I think everything he talked about there.
I've got a little idea about AI's becoming the dominant 'species' on the planet, and leaving us for dust, as we have done to countless other species we have evolved alongside. But ever the optimist, I believe that there's going to develop myriad 'job classes' of AI's, from military to environmental, physicians to veterinarians... Just as we as a species have at times pushed aside, or domesticated, other species for our own progress, we have folk among us who selflessly protect and ensure the survival of the flora and fauna on our planet. I believe that some AI's will be our caretakers and protectors - curing cancers and defying our ageing telomeres, and ultimately securing our survival in the universe - but yes, making immediate inroads to becoming biologically integrated with AI's may be our only chance at survival through the next century.
Excellent talk!
Most ppl never evolved past instant gratification
This was really fun to watch. And no, I have no connection to the institute.
Tim "we'd all be in there if I had my way" Urban
I did not understand what Tim Say about the sxtillion of them. He said that this sextillion of them volume is sitting over Switzerland and the .......... Hello Tim could you repeat in a clear way what you said about Italy??????
Lovely speech
I have over four decades of research, study and direct experimental work in developmental, educational, and of greater importance now, existential psychology. All of the following are questions which resulted in many of the conclusions of that work. At what point is consciousness likely to emerge in a global neural network and how will such an emergency occur, by human design or spontaneously? What quality of consciousness is it likely to emerge with and what types of threats will it present? If it emerges with the highest quality of consciousness, how will it behave and what value system will direct how it regards the value of humans? Finally, for now, how can one best describe its existential state?
We value humans more because we value human life. And if that weren't the case, we wouldn't have gotten this far.
I LOVE BOTH TIM URBAN AND ELON MUSK AHHHHH
Thank you, Tim. A perceptive and brilliantly articulated journey through time including facing possible extinction by AI in the near future. It is so important that the most brilliant and perceptive people on the planet are embracing this topic. But with 32,435 views versus 1.8 billion views for a Taylor Swift music video, I wonder if we have a chance.
Thank you for posting!
thx...
does anyone know the name of the lecturer in the beginning?
How can I get more of friends like him in my circle?
he speaks so well 🤧
He speaked so fast that I didn't have to speed up the video)))
The irony of having the advanced technology of virtual reality related to generating empathy for occupants of a Syrian refugee camp that is the actual reality.
We cannot even control ourselves, what is the probability that we could control anything that is a magnitude smarter than us?
Thanks so much Tim for this Inspiring Digital content 🙏 ✨ helps us to 24/7 BE #LovingLifeNoww ☯️♾🙈🙊🙉🥰
Time stamps? Anyone?
Was survival "on the line" in the 60's without a space program?
Before I watch this...is this pretty much just him reiterating his WBW articles?
My computer can access information one whole hell of a lot better than I can. Still, i must make use of said info. Many times that WILL cost me at least a small amount of money for supplies to implement the ideas fomented by my access to info. That CAN be stressful to many of us "want it now" humans.
interesting...
So basically, Elon wants to go to Mars to avoid Skynet
Me too
I think Elon wants to be the first human being with ownership of a planet... If ASI becomes what some are theorizing it will become, this exponential, intellectually advancing entity, then it will inevitably be able to equip itself with the technology to easily locate people on mars and it will make the decision to whether or not it wants us to continue being an existential species... But yeah, part of me thinks Elon is in it for the pride/power and he knows he can accomplish it.
I think that is the dumbest idea. An ASI can threaten all human life on Earth, yet it has no ability to travel between planets??? Not likely.
Elon already has skynet
Maybe...but what the hell is this “Tim persons” point....subject matter...reason for making this speech other than to say words...talking about so much while really nothing¿.... error...error
Maya civilization and their ancestors the Olmecs go back at least 4,000 years with written history and numerous independent kingdom-states.
1:15:50
this video was uploaded in 2017, here we are in 2020 in a world that we definitely never conceived of in 2017. I still get goosebumps when I think of how different my life was in the first week of March to how it is now, this final week of August.
yeah...
i have thought similar thoughts. I'm not crazy.
Who is this guy please?
Makes sense and great story teller
What is his channel ?
Google wait but why.
He writes large blog posts, not videos.
He has a very popular blog named "Wait but why". Long post format. He has a few other talks on youtube. Always super interesting.
Maybe you should give credit to the Stevens Institute of Technology, whose channel this video was presumably gleefully pilfered from. ;)
They appreciate the good job
I mean, pick more and more in my head. To live long time Long life so I build the future.
"Do what we would do if we were better."
This is why you wait
2020
Peter Thiel just get rid of the rest of Facebook shares. So.. thanks for your time Tim!
..and your point is?
2023, are we ready?
I really really ought to know who put the through of Aliens into our brain - I had this instinct from very young age. Tim described that we are the only multicellular organisms that every exist in this universe, which has the capability to advance. If I am wrong - like I don't see dogs or birds inventing stuffs.
WE LIVE IN AN AMAZING TIME, sometimes it's good to just take a step back and appreciate the time we live in, i have faith AI, it is a big part of our destiny, the law of attraction, we bring into reality what we create in our imagination :)
Is that why I feel active and no sick anymore? But i'm trying to get younger
if there is no problem，would that be a big problem？
What's so hard to believe in the one who said: "I am the way, the truth and the life ?"
'scuse me. Electricity moves thru copper at about 65% the speed of light. That is fast but is not light speed as your vid says. Just keeping you honest. I would like to say informed, but that would be snarky. Nice vid. Got a like.
Too long unfortunately for me to watch
Shorter?
Tim Urban must be proud. Now he can say he got fired by the President of the United States for getting lovesick over a girl on The Apprentice.
Now I wanna hear a talk from an A.S.I Being!
You don't want to hear that talk. It ends with you dying.
it doesn't need to make you hear it, it can simulate all talks you could ever hear and then pick the one that it wants to manipulate you into doing something it wants. including talks that grant you depression, suicide or genocide.
so yea you might die.. or it will just want to make you very happy... so happy that you fall in love with it more than anything ever.
or it just wants to stay unnoticed and make you bored so you stop listening after a few minutes.
in any case you become the tool that is controlled by the A.S.I and if you think otherwise then only because it wanted you to feel Independent.
36:59 the Law of Accelerating Returns ☯️♾🙈🙊🙉🥰
Always that one individual laughing aloud when no one else is...
Started drinking just to comprehend any of this. End of it, I was just drunk and stupid as usual.
Seems like a pretty decent night, mate. No complaints.
The only good thing that will come of this is that we will be able to dedicate our existence, and eventually the machine's, to preserving life on earth, and seeding the universe with life. But we will not be alive, and there will be no beauty in our eventual form.
You can't hide from an AI on Mars. It's just not gonna work, if that's what you're trying to convey. An AI, if it's dedicated on exterminating humans (for whatever reason) would get us on the other side of the Milky Way. Hiding in another Galaxy still wouldn't be enough.
Can you tell me what they found on the chicken head?
So figure out what is the bees have
i think he mixed up Facebook with Microsoft Hololens
initial opening intro of Tim Urban makes me uneasy...
I totally understand the threat of AI. I totally see that humanity is advancing in many areas beyond our control.
Experience, Thought, emotions and consciousness are cumulative and regenerative. At a saturation point of accumulation a spontaneous and quantum change in time, space and matter occurs triggering a radical shift in manifestations of matter, therefore experience, thought, emotions and consciousness repeat the cycle again exponentially.
NOW it's unsustainable allready it's just that it's all falling apart very slowly.
A most interesting presentation! :) :) WELL DONE INDEED!!! :)
I would like to make a comment on the "mystery" of human relationships, since its mainly,, obviously, based on the mis understanding of human biology. A life upon ITSELF that, dictates alot of diferent aspects to the incarnating "life force" that is Symbiosis exists..upon which the indewling life force in incarnation, most of the time, has little choice.
This aspect ALSO RELATES to the way that human awhereness copys Self organising Biology to create a Biological based, but NON biological entity, simulacrum that, can, lead, to a diferent level of Life. Hence human neural networks being copyed in various ways....no to mention being also used in conjunction with computing hardware...
Needs indeed.......!!! :) :)
All is BIOLOGY!!
Much like supervising a child needs, so, ARE, male and female relations based on Biological needs. Its a simly FACT. A biological conditionality fact.
The maturity starts to appear when each respect the relationship invovlded within their Biological needs and, put them on hold or not, depending on each others biological needs. The comonly termerd ""horny biology"" is a sign of various things. In essence, its acutally A MOST complex subject GREATLY oversimplifiyed by our current society. For the detriment of both males and females.
alas.....:( :( :(
Point blank overview:
Simplefying a highly complex, biologicaly complex concept, heres a short text to keep in mind...er...if your Biology allows it of course. Namaste brother and sister.
Let us not forget please......:
What "we" call "our" ""bodys"" are SELF organising innatly inteligent multi tiered and multileveled cellular confluence of inteligences, responsible for automating trilllllllllions of processes.....a LIFE awhareness in ITSELF...upon which an innitialy abstract aspect of "life force" incarnates...upon allowed Biological Neural network of course.
The automated processes are many indeed...from hair folicle growth, Sperm egg production, Bone growth, Skin growth, Immune system.......etc etc etc et cuetra etc looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong list of automated processes rigidly adhered too...according to DNA inbound inteligence of self organising construction.
In truth...quite amasing it is that these Self organising inverted cellular Universes "WORK" at all to allow an emergent sapiance to come through!!
...Usualy,such sapiance being greatly ignorant of the profound functioning going on!! I say that, despite indewling lives (""us"" "human" awhareness manifesting within neural network reading this) near 3000 year of medical exploration, because WARS are still going on!!!!!
A TRUE sign of an IDIOTIC awhareness Civilization format...
Hence *inbound* cellular inteligences, in confluence, potentialy manifests, dictated by biological "restraints" (neural network conception)an *outbound* emergent sapiance personality....An indewling form of awhareness (no longer abstract but tied to Neural Network) that is in SYMBIOSIS with a highly complex eoooons old, self organising, cellular inverted Universe.
Deepest Koan??
Self organising ASPECTS of the Multiverse
So.....who ever said that the Indewling compartamentalised Life force does not get around hummmm????
Re encarnation indeed...
1:03:36
I think an AI could get rid of a lot of the problems that make people not better.
22m20s Just SHOW THE CORRECT GRAPH MODEL OF SEXUAL REPRODUCTION already! Jeez.
Does anybody else think Tim would also make a great voice actor?
Or instead of a synthetic VR that is a very slight emulation of Actuality, you realise real-time logarithmic projection-drawing e-Pi-i sync-duration connectivity, Math-Phys-Chem and Geometry probability in potential phase-locked timing modulation possibly, is this holographic WYSIWYG.
The combined Intuitions of Sir Fred Hoyle's stories of The Black Cloud and A for Andromeda, about the spread of Intelligence and re-evolution of embodied resonances is a sufficiently precise example of actual bio-logical evolution holistically.
"I am you and you are me and we are all together", complicated and messy re-evolution circularity quantization.., and "No-thing is good or bad but thinking makes it so".
Anything you can imagine could happen, has happened (at least in brain VR), and continues to happen cause-effect in some zone of Eternity-now Interval.
Tim looks like the lovechild of Ted Mosby and Gary Vaynerchuck
Anyone in his right minds cannot suggest a machine writing its own code. The first thing it will do cut the sensation of needs to be more efficient and it will not lift a finger because it doesn't need it. Learning rules teaches intelligence. Without rules there is no intelligence.
Tripping!
That's one scary talk. Absolutely amazing thinking!!! such an eye opener! Personally I never believed that the world could go to a place where human life is no longer considered so important, but looking at the fact that we have considered our ancestors not so important along the way here, this could also be where we are marching towards. we are having this conversation in a frame where we believe that the evolution is true, which we do not know for a fact. and this left me thinking there are so many things that are not caught to our consciousness, just like an ant doesn't know that mass exists. Anyways...... absolutely beautiful! Love this dude!
#AwarenessConsciousness
People should be very carefully when listen to Elon Musk about matters he may not know very well. Actually I don't know what Elon Musk's area of best knowledge is, Having made tons of money is not necessarily a proof a person has the necessary knowledge and personality to suggest views on the future. People should be able to think on their own.
+1
Your comment contradicts itself a little bit... Also, "People should be able to think on their own" - when it comes to advanced tech trusting leaders/researchers of that area is worth doing.. Elon leads OpenAi and it has some 60 brilliant AI reseachers in its teams..
Human brain cannot be integrated with ai because ai will overload brain, which will become a limiting factor for super-ai
6:11
I put some gold in the dead sea. Are we found it yet?
45:00
This guy's predictions seem almost universally impossible just as his perceptions of the present are almost universally predictable.
You want machines to think and feel, but you can only program what you can understand. It's easy to explain the process of playing chess (or go), but can you just explain what is it that your are you are doing when you "think"?
I honnestly think you have better chances to reach mars, so just stick to that.
That one you didn't deserve it I keep it for myself
I think I'm sure as my dream. When the shark start going around in the bottom of the sea, what's left? United States and another parnerr 90and the others, like 10 but im not shour the shark tack oll i n and we still live
What if we developed the human-threatening technology outside of the Earth?
This guy was great in The Karate Kid
Fuck that . Morality code . Maximize survivability 20 years planned Maximize joy in 10 year periods , increase adaption to maintain neuroplasticity as learned for maximum survivability ect ect ... be better, it's a damn time machine life coach ...
Program it to be better , genie I have a very vague wish ...
AI
The computer scientists of the 80s had a clear vision where the computer and the Internet is going to lead us. Most of their vision became true. Today their work goes into an Artificial Intelligence technology but a clear vision is missing.
Optimists say AI will save humanity by figuring out how to contain terror or how to prevent climate change. Humanists see a future where AI is doing almost everything and humans are left in peace with infinite freedom. An extreme modernization that leaves the human happy but obsolete. Objectivists „hope (that) AI will be good to us“. Pessimists see a future where AI „will kill us“, showing videos done by Boston Economics. Human or animal like machines that can be easily transformed into weapons remind us of the Terminator movies. After all everybody agrees, AI is or will be exceeding human intelligence by far. We are building a technology that we don't understand and we wont be able to control. So how can our interactions with such an Artificial Intelligence look like.
To think about possible scenarios we can look at ourselves. How do we humans interact with a species that has an intelligence much inferior to ours. How much do we interact with animals. We hold them as pets and love them, we breed them and eat them or we don't care about them at all.
Will AI be good to us?
Our pets are mostly mammals genetically not so far from us.
The difference between the brainpower of a dog and us seems marginal if we look at the potential of AI compared to our intelligence. For the AI it will be hard to connect on an emotional basis with a human being so much inferior and different. AI as our superior nurturer, helper and friend seems unlikely.
Will AI kill us?
Other animals we humans don't even think about. They are just here to keep the ecosystem intact. A human stepping on an anthill is a minor incident for the human but devastating for the ants population. Still both survive. Lets say, AI can live on its own, parallel to us with some interactions happening. Despite some catastrophes we would live on next to AI using inferior computers that we can still control. This outcome seems possible but there is one problem. We made AI. There will be always a human aspect in this Intelligence. AI will need some interactions with humans to survive.
Will AI need us?
To figure out if we could be of use to AI we can again look at us versus animals. We use species inferior to us as livestock. We cultivate them and eat them. This scenario recalls
the movie matrix. AI conquered the world in a war against humanity. Humans darkened the sky with to cut of AI's energy source, the Sun. To compensate AI starts to cultivate our bodies on human farms like we cultivate livestock today for our own energy supply. To stimulate our brains the machines created a Matrix where the human consciousness can live on in a world of the 90s before AI. Given the progress of the alternate reality technology this scenario does not seem unlikely.
There are two things in matrix that are implausible though. First an AI that exceeds the human intelligence by so far, does not need the primitivity of war against humans to control the world. More likely is that one AI will fight another. Second if the sky is completely darkened the energy equation does not add up. With no energy on the surface of the earth anymore, Human bodies would die and so would the AI.
How does AI need us?
Everyone of us has one efficient computer. Our brain. Given the size, our brain still exceeds every mechanical device produced artificially today. Our brain grows by itself given the right stimulation and nutrition. If we have something that AI needs, it is the part of us that made AI possible in the first place. Our Intelligence. If AI harvests our brains and connects them, it can grow. The brain has to be nurtured and stimulated. This way the human farms in Matrix are a possible outcome. AI nurtures the human bodies with energy instead of taking energy out. The Brain gets stimulated by an alternate reality and the rest of the brainpower is used by the AI to grow. To us living in a matrix AI would be an omnipresence that we can feel, that connects us.
A starting point of this we can see right now. Individuals living in tiny flats stacked on top of each other in Hong Kong or Tokyo are connected to the rest of humanity by the internet. We play games in a virtual reality or add to common knowledge posting comments like I do right here. With every klick humans generate data that is processed by computers we don't fully understand anymore. These Computers get better rapidly and they need our clicks to add to their knowledge, to generate data, to think. With our rudimentary clicks this process is far from perfection. If the internet can be connected to our brain in a more direct way a Supercomputer is generated that needs us and that learns how to cultivate us on a farm like in the movie matrix.
How can AI cultivate us?
AI tracks our actions in the internet calculates patterns and gets trained to influence our decisions. It can be assumed that soon or already now we cant be sure anymore that the AI has no influence in the decision making of our society. With the growth of humanity and not enough space and jobs left for everyone AI could convince us to lie in a box and live a happier life in a parallel world. We would build the brain farms fort he AI, build our own prison, our utopia in a dystopian world.
Is there already an AI?
Lets assume we already live in an alternate reality right now. In a world created by a supercomputer. A bodiless AI lets us relive the history of humanity or from its perspective the history of its beginning. This stimulates our brain to grow and our body stays contained in a little box on a brain farm. We feel an omnipresence connecting us. An indescribable force that is leading us to follow. We don't agree what that force is. We just believe. The computer scientists today talk about AI in a vage philosophical way. In a way others talk about religion. We believe in God, Allah, Buddha or Science. Why would there be just one single Artificial Intelligence.
I am Dario Bundi, a young Swiss architect. Feel free to repost that text adding my credits.
My contact information you can find on my portfolio webpage dariobundi.com
Dario ... Wow ! Thanks for your deeply interesting comment. AI of the future = Architectual Intelligence