Wow! I was surprised to hear my name mentioned directly Chuck. Thank you for the video, insight and lesson. Glad to hear my suspicions were accurate. Fastgraphs helps to recognize stock overvaluation with simple illustration for non-pundits like myself. Glad to be a subscriber!
Wow, most semi stocks that're covered here indeed seemed priced for perfection mainly due to AI hype. Thanks Chuck for being the voice of reason, as always!
I have 25% in cash and I am happy seeing the market trade down, but I also realize that it could turn around fast and keep going up but I can’t help but get a little bit excited after seeing them drop like this
Dear Chuck, it would be nice to have a follow up video and tell us in which companies you have reinvested the profit from Broadcom or atleast considering investing. Thank you, Mr. Valuation, for the most comprehensive valuation videos on youtube! ❤
It would really depend on the investment objectives, risk tolerances, and needs of the individual. In other words, different strokes for different folks.
I suggest the following strategy to do a video about: dividend growth investing from a perspective of a young man 30 years old who does not need the dividend income for atleast 20 years from now and strives to build an income of aproximately 2000 dollars per month in 20 years or more. Ps. I also have Broadcom with 200%+ profit but as Peter Linch said it is better not to cut the flowers and water the weeds. Fastgraphs is truly awesome and it does my job much easier.
Peter Lynch also said that companies above earnings lines tend to be poor performers and crash or go sideways until EPS grows into share price. I doubt he mean flowers companies which delivered most returns by PE expansion while their EPS is collapsing like Texas Instruments.
Those calling the trading pattern a bloodbath aren't considering the long run. The companies themselves have not changed, it's the Market that changed. Steady as she goes, and we'll regroup in about 10 years!
I have considered trimming my semiconductor ETF positions, but with earnings for these companies coming up in a month and a half or so I think it might gain some upward momentum into earnings. I'm HODL-ing for now, and will buy more if there's more decreases in the future weeks.
@@FASTgraphs That must be a typo. FV if I look on FG is around 129 USD. And then there is also the chinese war risk in the room. Especially when Trum gets president. What I´m missing here? Thanks a lot for the always highly appreciated great videoS!
I would still consider it significantly overvalued and an earnings yield of only 1.33%. I would be interested in the mid-80s but not before. It is going in the right direction but has a long ways to go in my humble opinion.
AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take any other recommendations you make.
Mr. Carnevale would you consider a video on these Cdn stocks: CLS-TCelestica Inc Sv CSU-T Constellation Software Inc DSG-T Descartes Sys SHOP-T Shopify Inc Thank you
A hole in this thinking / investment way is that it discards the pe expension due to geniune nature of the bussines development. Semiconductors are now and will be in future more crucial to humanity hence the historical pe ratios wont matter
Cars are more crucial than ever to humanity and yet it does not mean than PE ratios should be affected by it. Stock market is only about one thing and that is profits and growth of these profits not about how crucial something is.
@@rocketman99 Cars are getting better all the time. From safety to advanced technology in them. Than EVs are so much better than ICE cars. Cars produce returns to people. Ask people who use cars for their work. Semicondocturos will be more crucial so there will be a lot of supply and than pressure margins. Look how internet was crucial in past few decades and yet PE ratios stayed the same. SPY average PE is the same last 40 years.
For starters, one year is not the long run. Taking my advice you would've messed taking on an enormous amount of risk. Be careful of being a genius in a bull market. Regards, Chuck
Due to the power of compounding a really fast-growing company will make you money if you hold it long enough. I have used Starbucks as an example. If you purchased it in April or May 2006 and held it until today you would average approximately 9% year annualized rate of return. However, from May 2006 until April 2009 you would be down over 65% with an annualized loss of over 30%.
It means there was no time in history where you could overpay for Microsoft and not make money or Visa, Mastercard or any other double digit grower. Company growing 20% annualy will cut PE in half every 4 years or so, so you basically cannot lose money on it as long as it grows and cut PE in half every 4 years for example. If you bought MSFT at the top of the internet buble in 2000, you would still 8x your money. Im actually surprised that nobody use PE on cost while yield on cost is famous. If you bought Visa during IPO year, your PE on cost would be 1 in 2025 as EPS is getting close to 2009 share price.
Wow! I was surprised to hear my name mentioned directly Chuck. Thank you for the video, insight and lesson. Glad to hear my suspicions were accurate. Fastgraphs helps to recognize stock overvaluation with simple illustration for non-pundits like myself. Glad to be a subscriber!
You really are Mr. Valuation. Nobody does better videos on how to value a stock (that I’ve seen).
Thank you I am humbled
Wow, most semi stocks that're covered here indeed seemed priced for perfection mainly due to AI hype. Thanks Chuck for being the voice of reason, as always!
I have 25% in cash and I am happy seeing the market trade down, but I also realize that it could turn around fast and keep going up but I can’t help but get a little bit excited after seeing them drop like this
Chuck, lots of lessons to be learned….excellent presentation
Excellent video as always sir. You've helped my portfolio massively. Thank you
Dear Chuck, it would be nice to have a follow up video and tell us in which companies you have reinvested the profit from Broadcom or atleast considering investing. Thank you, Mr. Valuation, for the most comprehensive valuation videos on youtube! ❤
It would really depend on the investment objectives, risk tolerances, and needs of the individual. In other words, different strokes for different folks.
I suggest the following strategy to do a video about: dividend growth investing from a perspective of a young man 30 years old who does not need the dividend income for atleast 20 years from now and strives to build an income of aproximately 2000 dollars per month in 20 years or more. Ps. I also have Broadcom with 200%+ profit but as Peter Linch said it is better not to cut the flowers and water the weeds. Fastgraphs is truly awesome and it does my job much easier.
Peter Lynch also said that companies above earnings lines tend to be poor performers and crash or go sideways until EPS grows into share price.
I doubt he mean flowers companies which delivered most returns by PE expansion while their EPS is collapsing like Texas Instruments.
Thanks, Chuck. Very helpful..Larry
Thank you for the two EDMP definitions that was great.
Excellent video Chuck like always, thank you.
very good presentation most of the tech stocks are overvalued at this point maybe a bit cheaper might make sense
Those calling the trading pattern a bloodbath aren't considering the long run. The companies themselves have not changed, it's the Market that changed. Steady as she goes, and we'll regroup in about 10 years!
taking profits with such an overvalued market is the thing to do
Tsmc market cap 26.33T?
The good news is the liquidity, the bad news is they’re liquid 😂 thanks for the video, Iong SWKS
Outstanding video thanks Chuck !
Thank you. This really helped me. I wasn't really knowing how to handle this drop.
You would wait until most things drop more ( unless they go up)?
YES I think they are still overvalued
I have considered trimming my semiconductor ETF positions, but with earnings for these companies coming up in a month and a half or so I think it might gain some upward momentum into earnings. I'm HODL-ing for now, and will buy more if there's more decreases in the future weeks.
Great video Chuck I would have liked to hear your comments on tsm. It appears close to fair value.
I agree it is close
@@FASTgraphs That must be a typo. FV if I look on FG is around 129 USD. And then there is also the chinese war risk in the room. Especially when Trum gets president. What I´m missing here? Thanks a lot for the always highly appreciated great videoS!
It is close but to 2025 estimated EPS, so zero upside from 2025 EPS growth left. Its fully priced in.
Generally every sell of is a great buy. Good luck ❤❤
Great report 👍🏼
Can you do a video on PM and Altria?
So should I bye Invidia now ?
I am new in investing now , 21 years old
Only if you're willing to hold it for a long time and willing to add money if the price drops dramatically from here.
Great video, what about Micron ? It also dropped about 15%
It wasn't on the Yahoo list of losers for the day, therefore it was not covered. Regards, Chuck
CRWD has declined ~30% in past few days due to global IT shortage affecting windows systems... a buy or sell?
I would still consider it significantly overvalued and an earnings yield of only 1.33%. I would be interested in the mid-80s but not before. It is going in the right direction but has a long ways to go in my humble opinion.
So, what is the best semi stock to buy on Monday?)
So
, what stock to buy now?
AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take any other recommendations you make.
genius
No way! Not at price to sale > 30 🥸
What happened to TSMC?
Intc?
The stable genius trade
Somehow semiconductor firms are priced as they are high tech. Semiconductor is not high tech. Huge correction is coming
ASML is the highest tech which exists. Their machines are incredibly complex and nobody else can manufacture them so far.
Mr. Carnevale would you consider a video on these Cdn stocks: CLS-TCelestica Inc Sv
CSU-T Constellation Software Inc
DSG-T Descartes Sys
SHOP-T Shopify Inc
Thank you
Thanks for the suggestion I will take a look
TSM? I missed it.
😊Lq😊 9:58
Why didn’t you cover Micron?
I covered the biggest losers for the day from Yahoo TSM wasn't on that list
A hole in this thinking / investment way is that it discards the pe expension due to geniune nature of the bussines development. Semiconductors are now and will be in future more crucial to humanity hence the historical pe ratios wont matter
Cars are more crucial than ever to humanity and yet it does not mean than PE ratios should be affected by it.
Stock market is only about one thing and that is profits and growth of these profits not about how crucial something is.
@@Cap_management cars are not getting any better. Cars dont produce returns for the people buying them
@@rocketman99 Cars are getting better all the time. From safety to advanced technology in them. Than EVs are so much better than ICE cars.
Cars produce returns to people. Ask people who use cars for their work. Semicondocturos will be more crucial so there will be a lot of supply and than pressure margins. Look how internet was crucial in past few decades and yet PE ratios stayed the same. SPY average PE is the same last 40 years.
A year ago you were saying all these stocks were too high . . . . Taking your advice you would have missed out on tremendous % increases.
For starters, one year is not the long run. Taking my advice you would've messed taking on an enormous amount of risk. Be careful of being a genius in a bull market. Regards, Chuck
A year ago AMAT was below orange line so not too high. I smell made up story.
@@Cap_management Made up by who?
What do you mean you can't overpay for growth stocks? 😮🧐
Due to the power of compounding a really fast-growing company will make you money if you hold it long enough. I have used Starbucks as an example. If you purchased it in April or May 2006 and held it until today you would average approximately 9% year annualized rate of return. However, from May 2006 until April 2009 you would be down over 65% with an annualized loss of over 30%.
It means there was no time in history where you could overpay for Microsoft and not make money or Visa, Mastercard or any other double digit grower. Company growing 20% annualy will cut PE in half every 4 years or so, so you basically cannot lose money on it as long as it grows and cut PE in half every 4 years for example. If you bought MSFT at the top of the internet buble in 2000, you would still 8x your money.
Im actually surprised that nobody use PE on cost while yield on cost is famous. If you bought Visa during IPO year, your PE on cost would be 1 in 2025 as EPS is getting close to 2009 share price.
ACM RESEARCH #ACMR?
Tsmc?
It was not on Yahoo's biggest losers for the day list.
never forget this guy was bullish on MPW..
@fallen0509 Not bullish but as an income investment and still am