The 10 Biggest Steals and 10 Biggest Reaches of the 2023 NHL Draft
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- Опубликовано: 1 июл 2023
- Using the NHL trade value chart, I managed to calculate which picks were the biggest steal and the biggest reaches of the 2023 draft. The question is, which GMs deserve to get flamed for going off the board with their draft picks.
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these videos are always funny to watch 10 years later
I think one thing won't change, Benson is going to be considered a draft steal for his whole career. No ifs, ands, or Daniil Buts
I watched this whole video waiting to see Quentin Musty as a steal at #26 (elite prospects had him listed at #12). Luca Cagnoni was also expected to go early 2nd round (mid 30s) and ended up going in the 4th at #122. If he wasn’t a short king defenseman he’s probably a 1st rounder.
Mike Grier killed it at the draft though I was hoping for Heidt or Cristal with the second round pick. There were some high upside 1st round talent forwards available at that point. I'm not familiar with the guy they took instead.
@@nathanbaca5131 yeah, I think they were drafting on need in the 2nd round. Haltunnen projects to be a middle 6 power forward. He’s been playing in Liiga as a 17-year old and team captain for Finland world juniors. Not quite a steal but seems pretty solid.
the problem with these hypotheticals about trading back is the "probably would be there" If your scouts are high on a player and he's there at the pick they're going to take the sure thing instead of the risk of losing him over a few spots.
I honestly feel like the Blackhawks won the draft. Obviously Bedard was a no brainer but getting Moore at #19 a top tier goalie prospect and Nick Lardis at #67?! Dude looks like a first round talent since getting traded to Brantford. Add those prospects to Frank Nazar, Korchinski and Colton Dach and you got yourself an incredible young core. Couldn’t be more excited about the hawks future, god knows they’re currently hard to watch.
Quentin Musty was a pretty good steal at 26!
I still cannot believe benson slid to 13
I'm happy my Caps took Ryan Leonard but MAN I was really hoping they would take Benson. Dude's gonna be really good.
Reinbacher would have been taken 6th by Arizona. Nashville wanted Reinbacher at number 5, they offered Montreal a trade for the 5th pick. There was a lot of interest for Reinbacher because the scouts watched him play every night so they know what reinbacher can do…against men in the Swiss National League.
Reinbacher will be great defenceman, montreal did good job
He provides a solid floor and hes the perfect compliment to Hutson down the line- hes a great pick... just not at 5. If Arizona takes reinbacher you take simashev and you're in roughly the same spot. Its not a horrible pick but I bet Philly would have paid out the Ying yang to move up for michkov if that was on the table...
I'm not sold Arizona passes on simashev but if they did you take simashev and whatever Philly was going to throw at you to move up and you come out way ahead.
This is what I find interesting, every one and their mother online says Reinbacher is sub par. But as you said Arizona and Nashville wanted him. Recently we know (or at least, think he know) that the Flyers wanted to trade Gauthier for the pick at the draft, they wanted to pick to take Reinbacher. It looks like the GM's and the guys who are paid to know this stuff, are all really high on him. But the 18 year old's in college who make RUclips videos say, "Nah, he's not that good." lol
i've heard the preds offered askarov and 15. i'd have taken it. we could still have picked wood (who they took), moore, or barlow (who i'd have taken).
I have a question for you. Would any of the top three picked defenseman go before the top four defensive prospects in next years draft? All I heard leading up to the draft was how weak the defenseman class was.
I really like the idea to use pick value to figure out value of a pick, great vid
its just nhl23 teams dont do it like he said thats bs
Thanks!
Danielson played on a garbage team and was quoted by Connor Bedard as the hardest player to play against, if you flip the DRW picks and put ASP at 9 and Nate at 17 it’s still a home run. Love the pick.
Fantastic video
Appreciate the kind words!
As a Rangers fan i was curious as to why Gaber Perrault fell as much as he did.
Also, your whole formula is based on the premise that teams could trade their picks just because they want to. This year more than ever that wasn't true. There wasn't 1 trade in the first round. At the top of the draft the teams didn't want to trade down, then after 5, nobody want to trade up because of the depth.
I love how underrated David Reinbacher is 💪🏼
Most of these pre-draft rankings are done before the playoffs or the player is under scouted, which why you may have late draft risers (ala Erik Karlsson). The only lists that matter are the team's list not the publicly available ones. To evaluate whether the pick was a steal or reach, you would need the lists from all 32 teams.
They’re also done by people who aren’t actually team scouts or GMs.
As a Canucks fan, I like Willander (we desperately need defenseman) but the clear best player available was Benson. I wish we had picked him. Kinda pissed Chicago also got Moore. Best skater in the draft. Willander was one of the top d-men in the draft. I have high hopes for him. I just want him to be a bonafide NHL regular. Praying he doesn't bust like Juolevi or flame out like Virtanen- both those guys had substantially better players on the board in their draft and every fan knew it at the time. I also remember ranking high Boldy and Caufield- I like Podkolzin but he wasn't my first choice and wish we'd picked one of those guys instead.
Michkov is 100% the biggest steal of the draft, he’s the best Russian prospect since Oveckin and Malkin, it’s not even close
You wouldn't happen to be Russian would you?
Russian prospect***
@@yaboyharry I meant that, ya. Fixed it
@@cmz5847 I agree tho, unfortunately I’m a pens fan. So Philly is gunna be right there with Michkov
Yeah there's no doubt about Michkov being the biggest steal in this draft. I agree with you on that and once he's comming over to NHL he will be a monster.
so basically you are saying that public rankings are more important than actual rankings of NHL teams? thats hilarious
he also said nhl teams use trade value charts lol hes clueless
I will give the boy some mercy, with his sweet , delicant voice .. I don't think his balls have dropped.
As a Sabres fan, I was super happy everyone passed on Benson. What a grab!!!
He's gonna be a good one.
Confused as to how averaging consensus draft rankings provides any real insight into player value. Has that valuation method indicated success in past drafts? Wondering what convinced you to make a video using this theory.
it's an interesting video if anything but yeah my guy is reaching himself making claims that he "proved" wether a pick is a reach or steal
I think a curated list weighing each source's historical accuracy would help. Bob Mackenzie's list is basically a survey of scouts, very useful. Craig Button shouldn't carry the same value, he always makes some off the board choices
Did not expect us to get benson lmaooo
Pretty surprised you didn’t have Perreault on this list. Pretty sure most rankings had him going anywhere from 8-15 and he didn’t get picked till 23rd. I’m assuming it didn’t meet your formulas standards or you just hate the Rangers lol
Just look back at the draft in 5 years. There are so many players that are picked that never make it to NHL, even in first round. Predraft rankings mean nothing. Look at Patrick Nolan.
Congratulations to Philadelphia, for having the balls to take a chance on Michkov. He WILL turn out to be a generational cornerstone of their team. So, so silly for six teams to pass…
Michkov wasn’t ranked 2 by everyone because they knew he would fall due to commitment concerns. But teams like Arizona and Montreal are foolish not to take him.
@@markstaud He made it clear to Arizona he wouldn't have signed had he been drafted there.
Nice video and format 👍
Trading down doesn’t make sense man clearly teams go off the board so you can’t just trade down like teams won’t take the guy your team wants even if he’s projected later
grabbing the top defenseman in a draft is rarely a mistake.
5th overall was a tough spot. just glad we arnt taking on the mitchkov drama. got enough already
Cristall was the player I wanted my Kraken to pick. Definitely a steal for the Caps!
Edit: Jebaited by the thumbnail was hoping to see something about the Kraken 😢
Same! I was FURIOUS the Kraken chose to pick Sale with their first round pick over Cristall. Like, What did see in Sale that didn't see in Cristall?
Quinten Musty is not on this list is a crime
Interesting video. A couple of things. I would call it a reach if the team had a later pick they could have taken the guy at up to the average position. Saying a team could have traded back a few spots to take a guy at his average draft ranking assumes that you can make any trade you want and if I'm remembering correctly there wasn't one trade in the first round this year. Also the projected range on those rankings for most of the players have quite a difference from the high point and low point. I notice that quite a few of the reaches matched up fairly close to where Craig Button was ranking the player. Ultimately only time will tell which were reaches and which were steals, but it was an interesting exercise.
do u even do any scouting simashev is the top dman ii the draft
I get what you mean by reach or steal here because it’s based off of mock drafts. Just seems like a silly exercise when these guys have not played yet. I remember when Filip Zadina was an “absolute steal” at #6OA…
I don't understand the hate towards Danielson. He very well could be one of the players to make the team quicker than the rest. He plays a complete, reliable game and had decent offensive numbers along with outstanding defensive numbers on a very terrible Wheat Kings team. After all everyone knows he is going to play in the NHL at some point, there is no denying that.
I love data-driven insights! 🎉
Ngl, I was kind of expecting Milic going in the 5th round to be on here. That kid was insane in the juniors and just won the cup in the WHL with great stats. I get that goalies are dicey, but his stats show nothing but good things
Michkov's rank is based on garbage speculation like "he will never play in the NHL." And that no one could scout him live save a few teams with scouts in Russia. He cooked Bedard when they met, Michkov might end up being the best player in the draft and that's not a crazy prediction a week removed from the picks, it was the biggest steal by a mile.
The draft experts that had Patrick Stephan and Nail Yakapov first overall?
Heh. Imagine thinking Reinbacher and Simashev are bigger reaches than Cowan. Also have to turn my nose up at any methodology that uses Craig Button and Chris Peters. For the most part, the "reaches" are going to be far better players than the "steals".
This is an interesting concept but flawed.
You cant knock teams for not trading down because its not all up to them. If a team trades down then other teams could get the player they want and for trading down you need another team that wants to trade with you and wants to give you good value for your pick.
So putting a value on a pick isn't as easy as looking at trade chart.
I think teams can get lazer focused on specific players. It's like they underscout players projected higher than their pick then stick with the original target even if top picks are still available
Quentin Musty exists
I almost thought you would not pick Benson 👍
simashev is the best dman in the draft, love the pick for arizona
You're wrong
@@stackula99 great analysis
Reinbacher is , which is why montreal couldnt trade down as arizona would've taken him.
@@giovannisicondolfi7373 disagree
in fairness, arizona was absolutely taking reinbacher had he fallen to 6. but yeah, i'd have liked michkov or leonard. oh well. reinbacher will be useful.
Michkov was NOT available to the Habs. He intentionally gave them doubts about his arrival in the NHL. Selecting him would have created a mess, they would have likely had to trade his rights for pennies on the dollar. They opted instead to fill a need with a very good (albeit not great) player because by pick five there were no more game-changers available (aside from Michkov but we addressed that already).
You're splitting hairs and I'm talking as an Eric Lindros fan with his signed biography beside me as I type this. Michkov WAS available. Would he have played for the Habs? Likely not, but he would have been a trade asset - like the Big E was for Quebec in '91.
So if he is, as you say, a "tradable asset" why would they pick him?
They have a particular culture, and style they want in the locker room. I like the pick they made, and think it makes sense long term.
Michkov picked which teams he would talk too, and where he wanted to go.
lets go caps
I yes, just what i needed! Another teenager that did not watch 99% of these prospects but knows better than pro scouts!
Context is important and youre completely ignoring it. I agree with some of these, but youre reasoning is weak
You really need to check your biases on the Michkov bit
You a caps fan?!🔥
Indeed I am
For the record... Danielson outperformed Bedard head to head and his leadership at 17 is why Yzerman took him. He has much better talent than scouts give him credit for. Performed better in high quality games. Just saying.
People are sleeping on Danielson. he is one of the most talented players in the draft and he not being talked about at all.
@halion50100 Absolutely!!! He's also very intelligent and a natural leader. I could see him being an Assistant captain at the very least.
Zona was gonna take Reinbacher at 6 so how is it a reach
Reach for the Habs.
Best player available, all these dmen were a reach.
The level of ignorance about David Rienbacher is staggering
@@dbrownss1480 not really if u have common sense
While no one knows how most of theses picks will pan out in the end, this is a great video evaluating statistical draft value for this year. 😊
Absolutely! Reinbacher might turn into the next Lidstrom for all I know! No one has a crystal ball so if you’re a Habs fan it’s not just doom and gloom
@@DaRinkRat Can’t say I’m a Habs fan, but I wish them good luck with the pick. LOL I live in southern Maine but grew up near Pittsburgh. So the Bruins and Pens are the teams I pull for, but I route for the Pens when they play the Bruins. I grew up during the Lemieux Stanley Cups era after all! They’re my childhood team. 😊
I was hoping toronto would take brindley but Cowan is the better pick
Simashev is big and can skate it is why he go så high, reinbacher was not taken to early he was de best d man in the draft
But why did ASP fall? I think there's a good chance he ends up the best dman in the class
What? Musty is an absolute steal at 26. And Cagnoni is a steal in the 4th round
I don't know how you call somebody who went top 10, and was mocked 1-3 slots ahead of where he was picked, a "steal". Doesn't seem like it's even in the same category as the rest of these, and it'd be more interesting to see other similar ones. Also, give more for why they're a steal than just qualifying by mock drafts of, let's be honest, imperfect analysts. Tell us who nobody's talking about now but is gonna be a name down the line, not the arguably 2nd best prospect who went 3rd lol
Hi, I like your analysis and great work. But, there is 1 thing that I must disagree. In my opinion, if a team really like a player, his ranking is not important. If you want a player so bad then you take him. In the case of Reinbacher, he is a right handed Dman and those are not easy to find. I also believe that not many teams were ready to trade up by giving 2-3 draft picks in return. What is great about the draft is that all 32 teams went home after the draft thinking that they made great picks and steals!!
Not to much expected from me for this one unlucky duck.
Cowan will be a stud lmao
I got news for you Reinbacher should have gone minimum 3rd overall.
No
I guess Dvorský at 10 isn't a steal😅
Consensus had him as the 10th ranked prospect and he went 10th. So no not a steal, he went right where most expected him to go
No way, especially with Moore and Benson on the board
Reinbacher wasn't a "reach", he was by averaged expert opinion the best projected defenseman available. What is more questionable was selecting defense over forward talent. The need for Montreal might have been more at center or a winger like Leonard. Michkov with Caulfield already there wouldn't balance the needed forward depth.
fantili isnt a steal he fell into their lap he wuldve went 4th if they didnt ick him its not a steal 3rd overall ye a seal lol u must think leo sucks
Hughes made mistake 2 years consecutive in draft. Habs need a better draft scouts.
purely statistical, danielson does nothing wrong when he plays, also most of the reach are d man but there wasnt so many in the draft wich should increase their value.. i don't like how you analysed it. b
you also consider dobber rankings wich are purely fantasy wise.. not so serious work
He looked amazing in the Detroit 3 on 3 tourney. Quick,scrappy, shoots from anywhere.
I can see why Yzerman liked him so much
@@davidfillion9931 he also said nhl teams use trade value chartas and percentages like its nhl23
Where is Gabe Perrault
Flawed methodology. Every NHL team has a scouting department that is almost certainly bigger and better than those you use for the ranking-pick differential.
Reinbacher would not have made it past 6
Informative and interesting video. The level of ignorance about David Rienbacher is staggering. I noticed the quality and maturity of Reinbacher's game several months ago and since then he hasn't ceased to impress me as much defensively as his ability to orchestrate excellent outings from zones and his effective game in PP. At 17 was confortable in a very good league. It reminds me, to a lesser extent, of the discussions about Kayden Guhle when drafted.
Thank you and the point is not to say that Reinbacher won’t be a good player or won’t end up justifying his draft position. It’s more that Montreal very likely could have traded back, acquired assets, and still gotten their guy
@@DaRinkRat It look like Arizona had an eye on him. Trading back would mean 7th or 8th and Hughes lose Reinbacher. He was pretty high on Hughe's list. Lebrun also said that Nashville were ready to trade Askarov for the 5th pick to get Reinbacher. 3 teams had a very high hope for the Austrian RD.
@@DaRinkRat Thanks for your response but the option to move back and still get Reinbacher turned out to be wrong since observers who seem to be knowledgeable believe Arizona wanted him at 6th. Despite my very hight opinion of Will Smith, I even believe that Reinbacher could've been drafted 4th. Building a very strong defensive squad from the draft is invaluable if you want to reach the top. This principle is still valid in the NHL.
@@thailakhampo I think we pretty much agree 👌🏼
Whether Reinbacher will make enough of a good impact on the Habs is TBD. Quite a few top-10 draftees have been busts while Doug Gilmour and Connor Hellebuyck played like 1st-rounders despite having been selected well outside the 1st round of their relevant draft years.
Saying Danielson is a reach is in itself a reach. Danielson had a phenomenal record against Bedard.
Not just bedard he did against alot of other great players too. His stats don't show or tell you everything that goes on when he playing in games. If you take a deeper look into his play this kid I think can be amazing nhl player in the future and look back be like damn how Yzerman get Danielson and Sandiin-pellika.
Benson going to Buffalo.
Still subjective being no one really knows how these players develop.
If you want the best ranked defenseman in the draft and you trade down from 5th to even 6th and 6th wants a d man guess what? you shot yourself in the foot. And guess what? 6th took a d am oh my! No subscribing sorry
if u actually had any knowledge u would know that Reinbacher isnt at all a reach
If you had any knowledge, you'd know it was a consensus he'd be a reach, even though he was predicted to go top 10. He's a teens talent. All the dman were a reach outside of ASP.
@@dbrownss1480yeah he has no clue what he's talking about, let him live in fantasyland
The level of ignorance about David Rienbacher is staggering.
@danielmontreal007 if you know so much, on Kloten, what was his average ice time and how many of Reinbachers assists were primary? Really hope you don't need to look those up if you seemingly know so much
@danielmontreal007 don't get me wrong, DR will be a good player and had a pretty high floor. I just don't think he was a top 5 talent. All the scouting I read said as much. A team would draft for need though and DR fit that bill.
Whole idea how to rank the prospect in thhis video is nonsense
I like Tom Hollander's personality (check out his interviews), but I'm so sick of my Canucks always going for bunt instead of a home run. There is no term my long-suffering team's scouts love more than "High floor, low ceiling".
Barkey??
So much habs copium in here.
You really should learn how to pronounce the guys names.
why should anyone watch u over grav he acually does scouting does his own rankings based off his scouting and not others u dont fact check your audio qaulity is horrible it may soundd fine on headphones but oon speakers i have to turn it way up because of how muddy your vocals are work on your game and try again
Michkov
Heidt
Cristall
Morin
Dragicevic
Fowler
Were my picks for steals.
u should really study the material u make videos on you shooouldnt be talking abooout prospectss u dont spend your time scoouting nor are u good at it u just copy others and spew out misinformation
Thanks for the constructive feedback! I hope you’ll check out more of my content soon!