The Russia-Ukraine War and a Study in Analytic Failure

Please join the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday, September 24, at 3:00 p.m. ET for an in-person launch of the report: The Russia-Ukraine War: A Study in Analytic Failure.
In the report, Dr. Eliot A. Cohen, the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, and Dr. Phillips O’Brien, CSIS senior associate and professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, discuss the analytical failures surrounding the assessment of Russian and Ukrainian military balance before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, its policy implications, and the future of military analysis. Dr. Kimberly Kagan, founder and president of the Institute for the Study of War, will moderate a panel discussion between Dr. Cohen, Dr. O'Brien, and Gian Gentile, associate director of the RAND Arroyo Center.
More than two years into the Russia-Ukraine war, it is evident that the expert community grossly overestimated Russian military capabilities while dismissing Ukraine's chances of effective resistance. This report explores the widespread consensus among analysts that predicted a swift Russian victory, contrasting these predictions with the actual events that unfolded. The study not only highlights the errors in pre-war assessments but also investigates the underlying reasons for these misjudgments.
To prevent analytic failures in the future, this report offers recommendations for improving future military analysis.
This event is made possible through general support to CSIS.
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