The Ugly Truth About Risk To Reward Ratio (95% Of Traders Get It Wrong)
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- Опубликовано: 22 май 2024
- In today's episode, you'll discover the ugly truth about risk to reward ratio (95% of traders get this wrong).
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I just focus on 1:2, 1:3 max now. I learned my lesson. In & out ‼️
Learning mine now after getting 2 R several times and not taking it but kept waiting for 4-5R
You're the man Rayner !! At last someone addressing this issue. I had to find out the hard way, so many winning trades turn losers just waiting to reach this 2 to 1 W/L ratio.
As soon as I stopped this nonsense, I started seeing profits in my account. Pocket any 1 to 1 winner and live to trade another day. Great video.
What is the best RR? I don’t understand it so much, because my English is not so good. What is the best strategy
1:2? Or 1:1
Why is a high RR at a high win-rate nonsensical, simply because you lack the ability to archive it?
It’s definitely not nonsense, nor impossible.
My current winrate at an average RR of 1:7 is 58ish %. Not far off to from achieving 1:10 with a slighty lower winrate, not only 5%.
What Rayner is talking about is just hypothetical examples, based on his own inability.
@@moe490 yeah sure bro, its easy to say in comments on how great of a trader you are. Rayner's audience were newbie trader and he's a teacher. Bro if you start a youtube channel and teach with that 1:10 rrr, most of your followers will never win
My trades turn winning, then losing ,then winning again, then losing but is slowly on a trajectory towards a trend. Days can go by and it just spinning the wheels like that. You could try to enter and exit those and rack up small wins. But you need a fingertipfeel for that, I got my fingers burned doing that too many times. Like when I sell and keeps going up, then I feel like an idiot and just lost money anyways, now I got to renter at higher price, then it goes against you, oh my god, the emotions, You feel that.😲 Its higher risk. I'll just wait 10 days and see what happens, plus its lot less emotions and thinking involved siting on my hands. Maybe you lack patience to wait for a 2R, you want the feel of action. Thats okay , everyone has their own style of trading.
Hey hey ... great vid Rayner my friend. Love what you put out and explain. :)
Thanks for sharing Ryan 👍🏼 couldn’t agree more than this
it would be really nice if you could do a live trade so we can learn directly and implement when to use this and that.
Weiss man agree with u
Yeaahhh..
Yup
Agreed! Even if its a demo
The closest you can get ruclips.net/video/AbArcSLC014/видео.html
It is a pleasure listening to you 👍👍👍
Hi rayner i wandered here coz i thought your videos are for btc traders. But I do have a lot of learning in trading forex and stock market now. Thanks to you :)
Hey can I use these techniques in trading btc?
Great videos, your vision is well explained 👏 thanks
We appreciate you so much!!!
I love this guy, great content Ryner!
That's the answer I needed! Thanks for vid!
I’m new in trading stocks just 2 days and I’m glad I have landed on this content thanks a lot
Meanwhile I made my very first $2 profit 😀😀
Good analysis, as always!
thank you so much i have more than 16 years in forex and completely agree with you.
Make sense!
There's a lot of potential trades that I end up not taking. The candle stick patterns is right. The trend is right. The price respect the MA and bounce like a rabbit on a riddim. But... the target price has too much obstacles! Either it has a strong resistance levels nearby or it only go up for so much at each bounces.
Thanks! From Quebec, Canada!
Great presentation...Thank you
Hey Rayner. Could you do a video explaining what happens when the fed rate remains unchanged
Thank you so much Rayner
Excellent video, one of the few that tell things the way they are! Risk/Reward Ratio is used wrong by many traders. Everybody wants to risk low and win high, neglecting the other statistic tools. Thanks Teo for this video!
Thankyou rayner for sharing with this .
Now it's clear, thanks a lot Rayner! 🙏
You are the real thing. Big Kudos
Good day Sir, I really need the book on Candle stick chart and Price action. Thanks
Appreciate the help bro God bless you
@@jasonpizzino6356 These bots be going crazy these days lmao have a nice day imposter God bless you too
Amazing stuff bro
You inspire me daily..I'll become a great trader soon✌. Keep doing the good work.
great video bro keep it up
correct bro!!!
if you only look at the trade spreads it's most of the times even difficult to jump the spread between buy and sell
And i thought 3:1 means, risk 3 to get 1 reward and i was wrong to understand
i learned now i was correct through this video.
Great video 💙
Your right my brother i have loss alot just because i try to maintain 1:2
I trade what I see, if my next zone is less than a 1:1 RR I still target it, if my next zone is 3:1 away I take it because more often than not those zones are going to hit.
Nice advice
You did it again Rayner! you exposed the truth! I believe in you.
Very good tips 👍🏻👌🏻
I wait for bullish market sentiments and specific news.....Mergers, aquisitions , fda , fast track, and make sure variables are in place ...Low short intrest , undervied, avg volume vs volume inflow and then take a that trade. Market sentiment direction alomg with specific news works best for me. I wait for the right plays to show up and bet big ....every other day is a raiy day and I dont trade.
Good Information - Thanks
Exceptionally correct!
Rayner you're amazing. Blessings!!!
U a great dude, god bless 🙏
How would you combine your risk to reward market stats with your winrate market stats to produce a overall risk score? I'm trying to find a way of producing a risk score for a market based on those two factors. What I want to do is produce risk categories for the markets. Low, Medium and High risk. Is their a formula to produce an overall risk score by combining risk/reward with winrate?
look up profit factor hope it helps answer your question
hey great video, I'm new to trading just been prating on paper trading for awhile but I'm a little bit confused on how do you find those 2:1 risk ratio stocks, I just figured it was always a 1:1 ratio
I liked this video.makes sense
Who discovered
Risk to reward ratio as 1:2, 1:3 ?
It's like Duckworth Luis Rule in Cricket cricket match. No one understand.
brilliant mate!
you make videos i like. conditional probabilities
Good morning Rayner
How do break even trades fit in to the equation?
wrong maths. Every time you win or loose its % of your capital. So if you loose 95 times in a row (1%+95*0,01%) the time that you win, your capital it will be x% less. so the profit will be 10% of your almost half capital.
this video made me realize that this is somewhat similar to the lottery, there is the possibility of turning one dollar into a trillion but you have a 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of that happening, and we might as well save our money.
Right. What a calculation bro! 🤣🤣😂How many zeros are there?
I want 1 in starting and the money in my bank account
your perception of trading and lottery are similar but in actuality the only similarity between trading and lottery is uncertainty
Asess if can do 1:2 for that trade, or just take what you can. A profit is a profit.
1:1 is going to be king then😅
Because it gives me aproxx 76% of winning rate according to the market structure
very correct !!
Rayner do you think it's possible to have a fix Risk to reward
Risk to reward....you actually have to win the right percentage of trades. Most just lose all trades and go broke.
One thing that gets swept under the rug is that if you do margin trading with a very small account, and you may hit 2-3% gains quite easily, is that the fees can eat up your gains.
taker and maker fees aprox. 0,075%.. so with 2% u are nicely in profit...
You saved me again from this risk to reward trash, I knew it but confused but now its totally clear
Thanks
dont be deceived risk to reward is as important as a stoploss when it comes to your system and its ability for it to keep you profitable, most beginner traders focus on high winrate and struggle to maintain a very high win rate time after time as they learn that extremely high win rates are not sustainable and trades outcomes are more random than consistent, the advantage of having a SYSTEM that has a high rr is that you dont need to be right 70% or 80% of the time to make consistently profits, whatever method you choose high winrate low rr or high rr low win rate find your sweet spot and try to be somewhere inbetween both for long term consistency
Hello, I’m going on a long deployment soon and my stock portfolio is 65% divided stocks and the rest are a mix of penny stocks and reliable brand name stocks. I was curious if I could get some advice of how I could set up my portfolio for when I’m not able to look at it for months in end
$cciv
Should I also include the spreads, Commissions, and swap costs in my risks before setting a reward goal?
I usually don't. But if those are a significant amount for you, then you should.
You my friend have this trading knowledge down
How can we know our wining rate
so pleased I watched this. all i see on trading is risk reward and i watched so many vids trying to make sure i understand it. thanks
I would some what have to agree risk, reward is based upon one trading style, and stragety. A trader may have a stragety that will give them 1.5R 64% of there trades, but with so much emphases on 3:1, or better that same trader will lose in the long run, and wonder why. I feel strongly that risk, reward is based on stragety, and trading style, and most traders don't know that and wonder why the they barely scratching the profit surface.
Welcome back my friend, your price action book was a blessing 🙏🏽
Exactly it's a bitter truth bro
Counting the RRR is not the point.
You should know how to set certain trade with certain RRR.
A good trading will give you high net profit per Risk ratio.
Net profit(gross profit - gross loss) per risk means, net profit per average loss(gross loss per loss trade).
Use whichever trading method that gives you high rate of that ratio
Literally a week after I started watching Rayner's video's my trading performance improved dramatically. Thanks again for all the amazing content you put out there. Much love from Canada
Which is the best RR ? 1:1? ?
1 million subs LFG!!!
Let's talk transaction cost as well-
you win a dollar, you pay transaction cost of 10c (total win-90c)
you lose a dollar, you pay transaction cost of 10c, (total loss- 110c)
Hello I ordered the book but never receive my digital copy ? Please help me
Hey Savage, please reach out to support@tradingwithraner.com and we'll assist you.
@@tradingwithrayner Thank you I received it I sent them an email. I’m already on page 50 right now can’t wait for my real copy
Dude, i always, always, ALWAYS make sure my target is 6R and my win rate ranges from 44 to 60% each month
that sounds amazing i guess u trade smc yeah ?
I dont know smc.
Using simple trend lines, dont matter which ones just as long as they follow the trend nicely, at the moment i have 15-20-25 SMA. As long as they dont cross and all 3 moves nicely in the same direction im good. But most important is how price moves, when price moves very clearly in a down trend: previous highs should always be - green green green green then first red should be the top. Not green red green red.
Short at first red, SL above highest point of last 2 candles, TP last low. Its so simple, just have to wait for market to move nicely.
@@martinaasen8440 Cool! Sounds like you're describing orderflow/re-alignment. Imma test this!
Well this is actually a thing in my mind, someone just said u should have 1 to 2 risk reward ration, but what they dont know, to go to pass that 1:1 is another risk it self, as it can go to yours 1:1 and pull back to the price you entry and suddently go to your stoploss
it depends on the setup they're using. if your setup has a really high win rate yes 1:1 or less than 1:1 can work. if not you need a high reward compared to what you're risking
that is a normal uncertainty common to trading even in a 1:1 rr it could still move 0.5 and come back and hit your stoploss, you are risking 1% either ways the question is would you rather hit a 1:3 1:5 for that same risk or settle for a 1:1 note provided you have the skills {system,straregy} to realise this .
Upon trade entry, if your R:R is 1:2 (25% win rate), the counterparty has a 1:0.5 R:R (75% win rate). They take those profits to promote R-multiples as a must via Websites/Online courses. That way your broker/market maker always has a win rate above 50%. If Oanda is giving you trading advice, its in their favor.. look at who sponsors Babypips, ForexFactory.
@@KingJT80 Volatility and spread aside, a 1:1 RR will yield 50% win rate. Anything above 50% quantifies as an edge. Anything below is a negatively skewed strategy. As long as the win & loss distribution is even, positioning will control profits. ie; if I win 33% of the time, but its L-L-W-L-L-W consistently, just increase position size until the W in achieved.
Truth behind risk reward ratio...☝️👍👍
Buy red stocks or green stocks?
Hi bro. Thank you for making this video. I learned a great deal from your videos. But I have a question with regards Risk to reward ratio. 1:10 is giving me about 9.09 win rate. Can you check and let me know please. Thanks.
RR is mostly used to know how much your willing to risk without RR how r you know the amount Ur Risking
Nice
I always thought about it and you cleared it out finally. Thank you Rayner.
1:2 or 1:3 is key. Negative RR is for wealthy ppl trading 50 lots per trade.
It's all about the profit factor.
What if u only risk 1 cent basically the sec ur down ur out
True... IF the 1:10r success rate was actually only 5%- that's just math. How was this supposed 5% win rate calculated? Just curious. Thanks!
basically if he took 100 trades he would win only 5 time, same applies to 10 trades would win 0.5 times
If 1:1 is 50%, then a 1:10 is 10 times harder to achieve. Take the 50%, divide by 10 and you'll get the 5% win rate. Brokers love to promote traders that hit a 1:10 R:R ratio. It's profit to them 95% of the time.
precision and money/ trade management are key and very few traders can over come the complexities and intricacies of these two combined
@Rayner Teo AH? SORRY, THATS A REPLY TO MY COMMENT, RAYNER? A SUGGESTION FOR A SIGNASL SERVICE? STRANGE COMING FROM THIS CHANNEL
on a lighter note imagine Rayner changing his T shirt for the videos only... 😁❤️
The ugly truth about risk to reward ratio is... it's actually "Reward to Risk" ratio 😜
Right
hahaha
That’s hard to speak
Right bro 😂🤣
does your money will get liquidated if you didn't met the risk reward ratio? or it's still meaningless???
I'm new with this, and I'm trying to understand something. A risk-reward ratio of 1-2 would mean you trybto make 2 dollar with an investment of 1 dollar (or 20 with 10 etcetera). But that would mean a profit of 100%. Thats not realistic. What am i understading wrong.
I'm new to trading, but I think I've got this one right. I've found that the way people refer to it is misleading. Your "risk to reward" ratio is used, but really they should say "reward to risk" ratio. 2:1 ("two to one") means the point that you want to sell for profit is twice the percentage away as the point that you'll sell to stop your losses if it goes against the direction you expected it to. The general idea here seeming to be that if, when you win, it's 2x as much as when you lose, then you'd only have to be right 1/3 of the time to break even.
@@aodhanloki This helps a lot, thanks!
I trade Risk 1 reward 0.25 and I like it very much!!
Thanks Rayner... myth of RR is the king of everything is busted..
very wise
Love from India!!!
In theory you are correct, that the Risk/Reward ratio in itself is meaningless, however this video is also a bit (maybe more than a bit) misleading.
So what is a winning rate? Nothing but the ratio of the times one gets profits over losses. In other words, the rate you exited a position at the reward level instead of the stop loss level. So the winning rate is in itself an implied R/R.
Hence, a strategy + r/r = win rate,
You gotta optimize you ratio to your strategy. That’s why many folks here say that “the x:y ratio works best for me”.
Another option is to optimize you strategy if you rather stick with a given ratio.
Use a simulator to test which ratio maximizes you profits for a given strategy, or vice versa.
Nothing in the markets is simple. Or it is complicated.
Hope this helps y’all’s.
The math works for all entries at all times in an efficient market. If SL is away from daily volatility and spread is 1% or less of SL.
What’s the win rate of 1:3 rr? My strategy is 80% accurate. I’m interested to see the WR of 1:3 RR.
What is the best strategy 1:3? I don’t understand
There is no exact answer and trading is never an exact science. The risk to reward ratio should be determined by where you enter, where is your stoploss and target, the equity you're trading, as well as how the current market structure is doing at the particular time of your trade.
Win % of a 1:3 is 3 times harder than a 1:1. If 1:1 is 50%, then divided by 3, your win rate will be around 17%.
How are you doing
Mi ratio....8 loss 1 win, 1 in break even! Can be worst? Jaja. Waiting to improve my knowledge in trading,,,!
I am not totally agree with that winning rate statement from the great trader Mr Rayner who i respect at lot . I think the most important thing is how much are you making at the end compared to how much are you loosing. You can have a winning rate of 70% but at the end the total money you lost is more than what you won , but with a rr of 1:3 or more it's possible to have a low winning rate and still be profitable at the end of the month.
Knew it
I will never get tired of hearing these intros.
Love from Pakistan!
how can I know the win rate?
do a backtest on tradingview
trade your setups and see what your win rate is.
agree..
@@jasonpizzino6356 fakyu SCAMERS
@@wildan21 Good spot!
We have now regulated and removed sam comments in this section
Solid stuff Rayner!