I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.
Annette Marie Holt is the coach that guides me, you probably might have come across her before I found her through a Newsweek report. She's quite known in her field, look-her up.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
Jack is the best host on youtube. Did the guest say "When Shanghai was a cow pasteur?" - Sir, Shanghai has been an international metropolitan city for hundreds of years... Regarding Chinese real estate, sounds to me like what's happening there is no different than what's happening in U.S. stock market. Both were/are ponzis, exept theirs have burst, ours have yet to pop. They overbuilt real estate, and we're over building capital/market prices. The U.S. has the reserve currency, thus we can export inflation/fiat for far longer than China can. China is less concerned about the stock market 🙏
Pudong which is across the river from the Bund ins Shanghai was undeveloped in the 1950s. Shanghai has been a major city for hundreds of years but was much smaller in area and population.
Most of Chinese debt is internal debt. Which they have stuck on their Local Governments and corporations, which they can sweep under the table The USA has even more internal debt than China has, and yes they can sweep that internal debt under the table. But the USA has shown a history of taking that internal debt and turning it into an external Sovereign debt. Which is basically sticking much of that debt, onto the American people In the end China can pay off its external Sovereign debt. The USA can’t pay off their external Sovereign debt it stuck onto its people
@@DW-op7lyI don’t know about whether they can sweep it under the table. Certainly they are getting better at rolling it over. I don’t think USA and China have similar debt risks, external debt denominated in your own currency is manageable
China's Creative Accounting: How It Buried Its Debt and Forged Ahead with Stimulus What is China's secret? According to financial commentator Jim Jubak, it may just be "creative accounting" -- the sort of accounting for which Wall Street is notorious, in which debts are swept off the books and turned into "assets." China is able to pull this off because it does not owe its debts to foreign creditors. The banks doing the funding are state-owned, and the state can write off its own debts. Jubak observes: China has a history of taking debt off its books and burying it, which should prompt us to poke and prod its numbers. If we go back to the last time China cooked the national books big time, during the Asian currency crisis of 1997, we can get an idea of where its debt might be hidden now. The majority of bank loans, says Jubak, went to state-owned companies -- about 70% of the total. The collapse of China's export trade following the crisis meant that its banks were suddenly sitting on billions in debts that were clearly never going to be paid. But that was when China's largest banks were trying to raise capital by selling stock in Hong Kong and New York, and no bank could go public with that much bad debt on its books. The creative solution? The Beijing government set up special-purpose asset management companies for the four largest state-owned banks, the equivalent of the "special purpose vehicles" designed by Wall Street to funnel real estate loans off U.S. bank books. The Chinese entities ultimately bought $287 billion in bad loans from state-owned banks. To pay for the loans, they issued bonds to the banks, on which they paid interest. The state-owned banks thus got $287 billion in toxic debt off their books and turned the bad loans into an income stream from the bonds. Sound familiar? Wall Street did the same thing in the 2008 bailout, with the U.S. government underwriting the deal. The difference was that China's largest banks were owned by the government, so the government rather than a private banking cartel got the benefit of the arrangement. According to British economist Samah El-Shahat, writing in Al Jazeera in August 2009: China hasn't allowed its banking sector to become so powerful, so influential, and so big that it can call the shots or highjack the bailout. In simple terms, the government preferred to answer to its people and put their interests first before that of any vested interest or group. And that is why Chinese banks are lending to the people and their businesses in record numbers. In the US and UK, by contrast: banks have captured all the money from the taxpayers and the cheap money from quantitative easing from central banks. They are using it to shore up, and clean up their balance sheets rather than lend it to the people. The money has been hijacked by the banks, and our governments are doing absolutely nothing about that. In fact, they have been complicit in allowing this to happen. Huffington Post
Thank you. This is extremely good. This is the best in-depth analysis that takes the right viewpoint in my opinion, which is that the CCP economy has to be analyzed completely differently from western economies. This guy may not be right in all respects with respect to what is going to happen in the future, but at least he’s hitting the nail on the head, in analyzing the CCP economy in his own unique fashion.
I've worked in construction across Asia, mainly Japan and China. The decision on when to pick an advisor is a very personal one. I take guidance from ‘ Monica Mary Strigle ‘ who shorted the Chinese index . she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Shorting the Chinese index is a bold move, is this a continuous strategy or just a one time thing and who is this Monica if I may and how did you make such a turn over?
Xi Jinping is nothing if not pragmatic in the worst sense. The "restructuring" of China will be brutal and may cost half the population. But that in Xi's mind is a low price to retain power. China as a prospective challenger to the US is finished, but to Xi that's not the only game in town.
After buying TSLA shares for 10 years, I'm struggling to make gains presently. How can I adjust or revamp a million dollar portfolio to make profits steadily, or do I consider defensive investments despite market high?
dollar cost average into the stock. when the price goes down, buy puts and reinvest to bring your average down, or better still seek professional guidance to avoid any fiasco
The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped for a crash. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly $1m, since covid outbreak to date.
good gains! how can I get such guidance if you dont mind me asking? i am 34 and new to investing, my ultimate goal is to set myself up for financial success so I can retire early and comfortable
Can't divulge much, I take guidance from *Whitney Kay Stacy* ' a renowned figure in her industry with over two decades of work experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.
thankfully came across the consulting page of melissa Maureen Ward just after inputting her full name on the web, i'm super impressed with her qualifications and it was easy to schedule a call session with her
I would like to hear more on the host’s statement that in the 19th century the US engaged in IP theft (in lieu of innovation) comparable to what China has carried out in the last 75 years. Which presidents/Congresses directed such mass theft? And in what sectors did this program of theft-not-innovation did this occur? Fill me in.
An apartment (extreme example) in Shenzen/Beijing is about 46 times the average household income. Besides, ALOT of ppl are getting laid off or have their salaries reduced by 30%. This will take a decade at least to sort out.
@@FRIPPE_THE_GREATNo this will probably sort out in 1-2 years because most economist of China doesn’t look at geopolitics. China overtook Japan as the biggest car exporter in 2023. As of end 2023 Huawei’s sales of smartphones in China has risen to number 2 an increase of 59% yoy and Xiaomi has risen about 10% whereas Apple sales has dropped 10%. So innovation will be in China’s favor as car brands inJapan and Korea are destroyed by Chinese cars. Whereas once Huawei starts exporting smartphones Apple’s shares will decline significantly.
@skydragon23101979 you have to be economic illiterate if you think that smartphone export is going to solve these problems unless your market is the milkyway. Besides, exports are actually shrinking...
The overbuild in housing in the US in the 2008 crisis was, I have seen reported, 2-4%. In China it may be as high as 100%. Even if the number were 25% that is at least an order of magnitude larger. The number of mortgages that are underwater is large and growing. People are willing to "give away" their properties. The idea here is that the new owner would just take over the mortgage. The original buyer would lose their downpayment and any other equity they have paid in but would be out of the mortgage. The option of personal bankruptcy in China does not exist. The government has actually been advertising, on electronic billboards, the names and ID information of over 8M defaulters, many of them homeowners. These people are restricted from using public transport in many cases, among other things. On top of all of this there is the demographic crisis. Where is demand going to come from? The number of births is now lower than at time since the CCP took over. It is down 53% from the takeover. As for the financial institutions, by western standards they would be insolvent. Several in their "shadow banking" sector, some of the biggest, have already failed. A big portion of the assets on their books is real estate. Disregard the official statistics. Housing stock in the used market is massive and prices are down somewhere between 25% and 50% depending on the location. Even in commercial office space, some of the biggest, richest cities are seeing 20% vacancy rates with no relief in sight. Don't forget the belt and road projects. The numbers I have seen show that 60% of those loans are at risk or non-performing. By the way, while the counterparty risk was the big issue in 2008, the origin of the issue was government intervention in the housing market.
@@TR-xr4ut It only makes sense. You don't actually own the land, the state does. It is also a brilliant way to keep your construction buddies in business, constantly repairing and replacing. The construction industry is a good solid source of graft for the officials. So, everyone is happy, no?
@@louisgiokas2206 No, it costs money to build them, money that home buyers paid with their life savings and retirement funds, they throw everything into that apartment.
How could you get Peter Zeihan and Brian McKarthy together for a conversation that overlays economics, demographics, geography, and history? I’d pay to watch /listen to that
Just think what is going to happen in America when folks realize the same thing has happened over here but not just in Real Estate but with everything. The actual value of assets in the US are half of what people think they are.
Besides the economic downturn in real estate, the unused occupancy, in addition to the volume of unsafe, unusable tofu-dregs that will collapse, is untenable.
24:50 While I agree with Brian on whole hose of things, I don't agree with Chinese GDP being fake. Yes China does have a property glut peoblem and its not trivial, I think Chinese wealth in general has increased dramatically to the extent that I would seriously considered living in their third Tier cities than places like LA with lack of infrastructure, parks, affordable transportation systen and safety. If anything, Chinese wealth are undercount if you consider the ownership of home, availability of affortable and fresh food the convinace of their advanced transport system. Yes consider an average worker in a third tier City might not buy much in America, but they certainly buy much better things than the majority of Americans in America.
Japanification is not a bad final outcome for China. Japan is a prosperous, peaceful and quite egalitarian society. So China will take that option. Not every country want to be like the US
China supports business with a government bank, which is bottomless. Economic "equilibrium" may not mean what it means here where banks are private. In other words, banks here pocket the profit they make from interest fees and trading vs. banks there whose profit accrues to the government. That said, I would love to know what filter these men are using. Either they are using high-end makeup artists or they have a filter way beyond what Kari Lake uses.
So many negative news about China economy while Germany knocked Japan economy out that goes unnoticed. Yeh it's that bad 😅 Japan just lost its crown as the world’s third-largest economy Japan’s economy has contracted unexpectedly because of weak domestic consumption, pushing the country into recession and causing it to lose its position as the world’s third largest economy to Germany. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the last three months of 2023, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday, after having contracted by an annualized 3.3% in the previous quarter. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
China's economic relationship with Russia has huge growth potential. Pipelines for Oil Gas and water can bring all that used to go to Europe. Highways tunnels and railroads to Russia Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the next huge infrastructure projects. New mines and raw materials from existing mines can all go to China. Food can relieve hunger and gold and uranium are also wanted in China. Russia can also export jet engine technology which would make Chinese jetliners saleable in the third world. Russia needs chips for war products China has lots of cheap consumers merchandise to fill Russian stores now that western companies pulled out. Now that Russia is on a wartime economy, it will give those working in the weapons factories, something to spend their rubles on. China and Russia never had a good relationship. But since they are being forced together, they may find a lot of upside to the situation.
So you are basically saying that China is in big trouble because the government who controls the banks is running a Ponzi scheme. What about the US where the banks who control the government are running a Ponzi scheme? Which system would be better?
China got no debts to defaults at all??.. it is usa that actually defaults on 31.4 trillions usa dollars very very hugh financial debts troubles now???...
I have noticed a very common pattern. If you talk or write in English about bad things happening in China, then there will be many comments saying that the same, if not worse, things happen in the US too. If you do it in Mandarin, then the comments are they happen in Taiwan too.🤣
China hires Chinese students to defend the country. Those English writers studied outside so give example of us and those local students know only taiwan. They are hired and paid by government. 😂😂
As a South Korean, I know how hard it is to shift from a government-driven investment-led model to a market-driven one. South Korea (the model of Deung's Open Policy) used to a typical investment-led model. The model the late President Park designed is a mixture of Lenin's 'unequal' development and Imperial Japan's Manchuria development, appied to a totally new context, the GATT regime coupled with a set of generous US policies toward South Korea. Of course, entrepreneurship has been amazing as Peter Drucker said. This model got into a deep crisis in the 1970s. The Yom Kippur War and the first Oil Shock almost killed the economy. The Second Oil Shock following the Iranian Revolution was even worse. But the Value Added Tax system began to work in 1978, which gave transparency and checked moral hazard. (South Korea is one of the earliest adopters). And finally, the late President Park, in Jan. 1979, nine months before being assassinated, decided to shift to the market-driven model. They called it ‘the stabilization model’. (They called the investment-led ‘the growth-centered model’)... From Oct. 1979 to May 1980, a political turmoil. Then a military ‘junta’ came in. The junta gave full power to the civil bureaucrat elites, who had a firm belief in the market-driven model. By 1988, South Korea had got into a track toward a developed economy. An authoritarian ruler (the late President Park) chose the VAT system for transparency and gave up the government initiative (for the shift to a market-driven economy). The junta gave full power to the civil bureaucrats. This type of reform is not at all a common phenomena. The per capita GDP of South Korea in 1979 was just above that of China in 1990. China had done the opposite for the last 33 years. … Too strong ‘connections’ have developed between political power(the CCP), business men and the military(the PLA). No way back… This worries me since we South Koreans live next to China and are facing its puppet(North Korea).
Thank you for info on S Korea..... Half of the lesson is have market, and have stability, and let modern technology and methods work to boost output. It's hard to mess up the boost from cell phones, they save 1 hour a day by letting people connect faster and move data easier.. it's hard to mess up boost from stable electricity unlike old eratic power. Hard to mess up boost of reliable transport...... Hard to mess up boost of modern medicine but must drop all the stupidly of "Traditional Asian Medicine" and prayers....... Hard to mess up mega boost of letting female half of population work in all jobs..... Modern and safe banking .... modern water and sewer, , , , . We in West are impressed by S Korea, for using these modern tools so well....
South Korea use to have trade surpluses year over year with China Now? 👇 South Korea, caught between the two superpowers, reported a trade deficit of US$18 billion with China in 2023 - its first such deficit since they established diplomatic relations in 1992, according to data from the South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE).Jan 16, 2024 Analysts suggest South Korea’s trade deficit with China will persist as Beijing reduces dependence on foreign chips SCMP
There was only2 dollars in the begining,now there are trillions,it's a much dreaded syndrome of over population of dollars.who is going to stop it before they take over and polute the whole earth,I think we are doomed.😅😊😮
you understand your economics, for china to become consumer driven they would need to use the yuan as reserve currency and open their markets do you think they will try that, or try same model they have now?
"They could build nothing for ten years and still have enough houses." Unless you factor in that millions of those empty appartments are not actually complete to a habitable level, and those that are ready for habitation are such poor quality that many of them may be condemned if they don't collapse first. Add in the fact that many of them are built in ghost cities where nobody wants to live because there are no jobs in those locations and no community / family support network.
@@ManwithNoName-t1o it's worse than that, corruption is rampant, to save money the concrete has more sand than cement and the rebar is made of pot metal.
My thoughts exactly. Besides, no further penny will spend to make them habitable even if they are not a death trap as you already suggested. I did rarely witness an abandoned project to be continued later, especially in housing and construction business..., even if the conditions are most favorable.
Americans should also built more homes.. this will lower inflation without increasing rates. Making living expenses cheaper is a better tactics than increasing rates. This will reduce homeless issues in America too. We can learn a lot from the Chinese.
I’m an equity manager based in Hong Kong. I’ve invested in China for 20 years but not interested in allocating capital to China markets anymore. HK/China markets will most likely be a value trap for years to come.
The Chinese and Russian and EU markets peaked in 2008 and with US banking help, EU has hobbled along slightly improving. But China and Russia never recovered. The past 16 years of your investment has been a loss. All the Chinese GDP numbers since that event are just made up as China has declined. Now the end of the bell curve and huge drop off you just noticed? You didn't notice when China installed Dollar export capital controls in 2015?
And how China needs to more loans to keep the Ponzi scheme alive. Sure sounds like the same basic workings of the Ponzi scheme that were being advertised.
@@christopherelliot4964China never let US investors own anything but chinese equities which have ALREADY crashed. The pain is transitioning supply chains out of China which is why Mexico and Vietnam are booming.
Nah, they just need to buy up all commercial real estate in NYC & convert them to residential all with US tax money & move there. Many of them have US citizenship like Blinken so it would be a very quick solution.
With all due respect, thousands of years of murder and hatred. I think space between BOTH nations is a much better alternative that current arrangements. Maby the kidds of the next generation dont even need to be taught to hate at all and practice democracy.
@aaronb8698 hasn't been thousands of years. The area was Canaanite in the bronze age. It was isrealite for most of the Iron Age and it was Roman for about 700 years after that until 600 something A.D. And it was strongly controlled property of the Ottoman Empire through the 1917. It didn't really start getting violent until around 1900 when the Muslims in the area began having pogroms against the jews those combined with the Holocaust led to the establishment of both States
Too much debt. Over priced RE. Govt reckless spending. Liabilities piling up. Interest rates artificially low. Insane borrowing. "Now they are stuck". Is this China? Europe? or the US?
China has problems but does have super hardworking population who will work for $10000/yr and not expect any welfare or health benefits. This is better than France or UK or US. But yeah China has been dumb financially.....
@@karylhogan5758 .... By definition there is always work, even if lower paid and grunt work. It's the genius of market forces... one might even say the West with Unions and Welfare and MUCH HIGHER TAXES is worse at choking off the desire to work... China has great labor policy but awful corrupt leaders.
I know it seems impossible, but the CCP has started a new initiative to build housing in rural communities. Yes, they are doubling-down on building more housing in China.
Because they still have tons of poor people in rural area living in terrible housing. It is a country of a 1.4bn people. The last time I was there a few years ago, even the middle class still live in small and substandard houses--you just need to be a guest to find that out. They have not overbuilt. They just need to make poor people more productive, so they afford better housing. In a way, hiring poor people to build housing is like Ford paying $5, so his workers can eventually afford his cars.
@@tannhaeuserx464 By every metric they have overbuilt and that over construction becomes more absurd because China will never be as politically suicidal as to try a western immigration system and will try to deal with a shrinking population in a rational manner. The problem is so much of it is built in a centralized manner meaning a lot of it is impractiable for use. Building concrete shells while ignoring rural towns and villages still living in 1910 serf conditions because the CCP has some weird issue with being disgusted by old chinese villages next to their modern buildings. So instead of upgrading the towns they just try to build a city in a random field like 100 miles away and try to push all those surronding townspeople into it
@@TheRiiiight Have you been to China and see how people there live? I have been quite some time and over and been to many places. Pudong district was developed, Milton Friedman called it a Potemkin village. I think you have less clue than he did.
@@tannhaeuserx464 I never said China is all underdeveloped for whatever shadows it is your trying to box with. Chinese cities are amazing and better than the dumpster fire trash heaps that passes for cities in modern America where they can't even sell commercial real estate or skyscrapers because they're literally fucking worthless. But rural china and rural america are not at all in the same ballpark when it comes to modern development.
China has a different economy than Western capitalist countries. In the West, at least 70% of the wealth is in private hands. When there is a bubble followed by a stock market shock, for example in 1929, then private capital collapses. The economy remains in the doldrums for up to half a decade until growing consumption needs slowly drags it back to normality. In China's case, 70% of the wealth is in the hands of the government in LGI's, SOE's, Central government corporations, and so on. The approximately remaining 30% is private holdings, which have severely collapsed. Large China banks are recycling government debt. The government owns the banks, which loan to the government which pay off the debt to the banks that the government owns ad neuseum. Small privately owned China banks have already collapsed. Meanwhile there is NO private holding liquidity in China. Even large corporations, like Alibaba where the founder is Jack Ma, has lost 78% of it's value. Finally, the CCP are going after foreign commercial law firms and accounting companies in China (to start with). This is the manifestation of the CCP's fiat Foreign Anti Espionage Law in which a SUSPICION of espionage by Western and other non-Chinese Asian individuals and their foreign firms can land them in a Chinese jail for an indetermined period of time (the is no Habeas Corpus in China) with trading indefinitely frozen for that company. Foreign companies are leaving China in ever increasing droves, including large Western banks like Bank of America. When banks leave, you know investment is at a dead end. The future of China also looks very bleak, so for the eternal hopefuls out there, go invest instead in India or Indonesia. Your investment risk is now lower than China's with potentially higher returns, like in the early days of China, as these very large countries economies are still largely under developed with a young dynamic demographic. However, In terms of demographics of China, it is literally in terms of growth at a terminal end thanks to the One Child Policy. China's median population age is now higher than the United States. Old people are not heavy consumers. This failing demographic for China is unrecoverable for the next 40 years. Go elsewhere.
It wasn't One Child Policy, they didn't build enough hospitals, daycares, schools, and police who would stop 1m kidnappings. With this situation from 1990 to 2020 avg Chinese mom said ok zero or 1 kid for me. Only exception is the 10% rich and 20% very small villages. The commies chose this by having a sucky country. US sucks in other ways ... India and Indonesia at the least dont have massive child kidnapping the police ignore...
Chinese population structure is: 16 grandparents. 8 uncles and aunts. 4 children. So, the total population 16+8+4=28 20 years later, 16 grandparents passed away. ❤ 2 new children will be born. The total population becomes 8+4+2=14. China’s population will be halved from 28 to 14 in one generation. Imagine how bad the domestic consumption and investment could be. plus the decoupling, China’s export could be worse and worse.
What if china is trying to get int'ntnl credibility for yuan? Global south trading partners r willing 2 use cny as trading currency but not hold it as a reserve currency bc they think it will devalue. Thus Ccp is holding the line. Waiting till US fed pivots n prints more $$$. So that CNY can replace USD as a stable asset. Note that 10 yr chinese govt bonds interest rates r 2% while US r 4%
It takes MAJOR shift to replace world currency. US Dollar replaced UK pound after 2 world wars and when US was 60% of world economy in 1948. China at 15% is less than US 20%, and US has EU and Japan as friends so add some of that 30%. And US military sorta adds a bit, the US will get angry if any nation shifts to Yuan so if Saudis do it US will bomb or withdraw and laugh as region collapses. China needs not 1 aircraft carrier but 30 and then Saudis will see a new partner to rely on, China is decades from 30...... China at 15% world GDP has peaked, heading towards 10%... China in 1930 with 20% of world population has great opportunity but then till 1990 they let west have decades of building headstart.....
In China you can buy gold, but every purchase is registered so the gold can be easily confiscated. And it is illegal to take gold out of China. They will stop and confiscate gold at the airport.
You cannot buy gold in china using unguarantee usa dollars???... so usa dollars is consider useless inside China??...all due to usa not dare to assure and guarantee its usa dollars notes???... so if usa dont guarantee it dollars for hold??. Then china also ban usa dollars for buying gold in china also???..
The CCPs move further into authoritarian governance and laws should have investors realizing they cant expect China to follow the same moves the US Fed/banks would to resolve these issues. The CCP pulls tge strings mentioned to stay in power. They have to. There ia no leader next in line. There is no other party to switch to if this one fails for 4 or 8 years. I love China and its people. The CCP is a different story.
Brics isn't even a thing, it's literally a marketing term made up by Goldman Sachs. The organisation is essentially just a forum for discussion and has no power
What is he talking about. He keeps repeating the same thing Buzz words over and over. Mal investment, waste of resources, massive, mis- allocation of resources. How about a few examples of what you're talking about.
War and economics experts believes that mighty china property troubles are commercial business failure not national troubles??.. So just let the failure go bankruptcy so simple??.. but the troubles will become banker and finances and foreigner investors who will has to losses all their investments?? ... so just bad luck for the investors who will has zero returns at all???.. We are actually worried about usa defaults on 31.4 trillions usa dollars very very hugh financial debts troubles now??...so usa actually is a bankruptcy nation now soon automatic collapse??... 2.. usa overprinted its usa cheap 0.002cents a piece usa 100dollars face value dollars 💸 notes??.. and cost to mass print each piece of 100dollars face value dollars is actually cost only 0.002cents a piece??.. and usa overprinted its usa dollars to so many times to 500 trillions very very hugh financial debts troubles now??...and usa dare to overprinted BUT not dare to assure and guarantee its overprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now??... like we all can very easily exchange for 1ozs of pure solid gold coins?. For how much usa dollars anymore now??... why ??.. wh😊y usa not dare to assure and guarantee its overprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now???...why is it really usa got no more solid gold to assure and guarantee its overprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now???.... So usa not dare to be responsible for usa overprinted dollars 💸??... has motivated all nations to ditch usa overprinted dollars ???... and all dont want to trade in unguarantee usa overprinted dollars anymore??... so we believes that all nations will not accept usa unguarantee dollars into their banks anymore???... and usa 😮will only be use inside usa only??.. and not acceptable outside usa anymore soon????.. all due to usa unguarantee its dollars anymore???... So we all are worried that very soon usa dollars will becomes worthless and useless currency soon???... all because usa not dare to assure and guarantee its overprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now???.... so we suspect usa dollars will becomes worthless and useless currency soon???....as usa no😊t dare to guarantee pure dollaoverprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now?...like we all can very easily exchange for 1ozs of pure solid gold coins for how much usa dollars anymore???... so we all worry that usa dollars will becomes worthless and useless currency soon and no more worth holding anymore???...why usa not dare to guarantee???... something fishy 🐟???...
Such a good podcast, contains everything you need to know about the most important macro-economic elements in China on a national level and in global context.
The Ponzi -Fiat system used world wide, you can be SURE it will collapse sooner or later. The Romans invented the scheme, because of greed, it collapsed & everyone using it since then collapsed, this great Ponzi system will do also.
These two “ experts “ don’t know what they are talking about I shouldn’t think the Chinese are at all worried about what they have to say. They would be better investigating why the richest country in the world has 187 million people drowning in debt with no money even though some are working 3 jobs. How about that?
It is now illegal for taxi drivers in China to talk to people about sensitive topics. Every conversation in the taxi’s these days are monitored and censored in real time.
If Trump gets re-elected our financial trauma will be much worse than you describe. Think more fundamentally about financial opportunity in a chaos environment. Think the USSR to Russia 90s transition shock. He is unpredictable. He operates on a whim and on grievance. Also the mob is more in control than he is. Another conversation entirely of course just pointing out the benign reference to the potential Trump impact on markets and economies.
FINALLY! I've discovered someone who understands China's economic/banking ILLUSION. Brian, don't forget to explain how the PBOC must maintain (manipulate) the VALUE of the Yuan to continue to engage in foreign trade. The Yuan has been inflated to the point of being worthless from a market perspective, it only has value based on the Chinese "GRAND ILLUSION."
I haven't been to China but from what I have dug up online most parts look like a third world country. They show a city at night with the lights on so it resembles a Western city like New York but the reality is women are choosing sex work in droves and the average worker lives in poverty.
Yep China is identical to Brazil just bigger.. mostly peasants who can't count or read their tough language, and corrupt politicians who demand cut of profits.... I almost feel bad for them..
The interviewer has zero idea on totalitarianism and a culture of deception. He imagined every single communist Han Chinese is just like an honor-bound Anglo-Saxon manager in Bank of England.
😂😂😂a relative works for an American aeronautic manufacturer and was contracted by China to work on their 737 knockoff. They constantly pressured him to show them his Boeing and Airbus manuals. 7 years and counting and still no airplane😂😂😂
China leads in 37 of 44 critical technologies of the future but let’s just focus on where they are behind on right now 🙄. In fact there is a 7 volume 27 book series on what the Chinese invented that says we stole from them Including the invention of the Rocket What happened to China you might ask? China spent the better part of a millennia trading places with India for top economy in the world By the 1430s it was by far the top economy and technological leader in the world . But their emperor at the time started the slow process of closing in on itself closing off its borders their own nationalism Like we are seeing with far right Governments and you Americans these days This lead to 400 years of decline and then an eventual semi colonization of China for 100 more years And They did not run up the external debt like you Americans are running up these days 👇 IP Theft Is What Once Helped Make America Great That was certainly the case for the United States. The practice of grabbing intellectual property was a staple of U.S. economic strategy since the outset of the nation’s founding. The play Hamilton has brought new and deserved respect to the first secretary of the treasury. But his many economic achievements should not blind us to the fact that theft of intellectual property was a linchpin of his manufacturing strategy. RealClearMarkets
919 made in China flying making domestic flights and soon international flights. 929 is under test. At the recent air show in Singapore they received many international orders. There's no need for recipes. Make a trip to China to see for your self.
As a retired CPA/bank examiner/auditor (25 years with the FED), I fully agree with the Ponzi scheme analogy. Brian McCarthy has more clarity on China's "scheme" than I've heard from anyone else. However, the Chinese cultural scheme (with aid from CCP/PBOC) has a different huge wrinkle. The Western analysts' failure to understand Chinese economics is our predisposition to accept their financial statements and financial data as having SOME level of reliability. The Chinese have leveraged their grand illusion to bleed capital from the West and keep the ball rolling. I'm of the opinion that debt/liabilities regularly disappear from financial statements and economic data. "All the risk rolls up to the government, and then it become a question of credibility...and do people want to hold the liabilities of that government?" That is true to a point. Because the Chinese have no respect for Western accounting, the "rolled-up" liabilities cease to exist..."poof"...they'd disappeared. This is what short-circuits all market forces and allows the economic illusion to continue indefinitely.
It is a mafioso mentality. West: you owe me $1 billion dollars in interest on that loan I gave you, CCP. China (while polishing their gun on the table): what are you talking about, I don't owe you any money. Who dis? New phone.
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As an observer of Japan’s post-bubble economy, I see a lot of parallels. Given the power of the central government in China, I don’t think we’re going to see collapses like we’d seen in other economies like Greece or Argentina; rather, a protracted stagnation like we’d seen in Japan similar to Japan’s Lost Decades. In any case, I don’t think China’s nominal GDP will surpass the US for a long time ~ if not ever.
There is 2 things that is in China’s favors that he dismisses one is US lowering interest rates should a recession hit US 2 innovation in China holding up the GDP. China unlikely to go the way of Japan because China has innovation on her side whereas Japan had the plaza accord and the chip restrictions that destroyed Japan’s economy. China has BRI and chip breakthroughs plus innovation. Besides China still has BRICS currency.
@@LanNguyen-vd4zt The plaza accord devalues the dollar and indirectly raises the value of Japanese yen which to an export driven economy is a huge blow.
Or goes and steals it from other countries’ maritime EEZs. as Trade and/or diplomatic ties weaken, these countries will be much less tolerant of these incursions .
They either import it in the legitimate/conventional way, or they simply go into other peoples’ fishing grounds and steal it. < Waves hello from the Republic of the Philippines>
The ICBMs that China has aimed towards the US almost certainly run on American-designed chips. Seems absolutely insane that the US allowed that to happen. Now that the US finally has a Chips Act, it seems masochistic to have left so many wide gaps in it. Makes my blood boil.
The head of the Chinese rocket forces was recently sacked because it was found that a huge proportion of their strategic missiles were non-functioning. As in the fuel tanks were actually filled with water.
You would be surprised to learn that chips that go into space in the modern day still use ancient chips from the early 90’s. Chips act does not solve that.
Microchips are just a commodity now like corn or wood. They have proliferated around the world and can't be regulated away except at the bleeding edge, which aren't needed for ICBMs (we had those in the 60s).
same here. I usually laughed at those ppl cuz it's very easy to realize mot of their thesis are BS if one knows a little about China. This guy's thesis sounds legit and this time could really be different.
I have spent several decades in the institutional investment world in Asia, and Brian’s words resonate completely. Amazing how these ideas are finally consensus.
Basically what i got from this interview is that most of what was said applies to the US to whatever extent as well. Key exception being that China is authoritarian run and the government has no one else to pass the hot potato to in 4 years time and has decided to pop the bubble. And its worth noting that it has actually afford itself to do so. Who else can? On a side note, one funny thing Brian mentioned is that deflation is wealth destruction. But so is inflation, so what’s up with that?
Deflation destroys the wealth of the wealthy by driving capital asset prices lower while inflation drives the wealth and survivability of those without much wealth into poverty. So, he is correct but the question that should be addressed is "Is it better to have credit inflated assets collapse in price, the blameless wealth of the rich or is it better to have a lower cost of living. The caveat to that is that many of those who are not well off will lose their jobs and suffer along with the rich. The short answer is that we actually need a depression and the sooner we have it the better. Too many people who are otherwise sound talk of the hardship as unimaginable that comes with a depression but to quote Brian "that ship has already sailed." We will have hardship regardless and turning a few dials (say, liquidity injection or interest rate reductions) will not solve that conundrum.
@@davisutton1So actually deflation is infinitely worst than hyperinflation? Deflation the wealth of the rich is destroyed but the poor lose their jobs. Inflation the poor moves into poverty but may maintain their jobs while the rich get richer?
deflation is 10 times much worst, it mean your people no longer have the money to buy things and drove the economic downward while inflation means its a healthy economic, just dont inflate like 100%
In the 1930s deflation parts of the country literally tan out of cash. No one was willing to surrender a dollar today for a pair of shoes because those shoes would sell for 90 cents next week. Utah tried to put in place faux currency of sorts so farmers could sell wheat to buy diesel. Deflation is nasty stiff. Read the forgotten man by amity shlales
Beijing government is not going to bail out greedy developers and those buyers indulging in excessive speculation. President Xi has already warned them that houses are for staying in
32:02 Another point I disagree, The world definitely wants and needs Chinese EVs and other cars. For context, China car export was less than 1 millon in 2020, in 2023, 5 millions were exported. I think this trend will continue to grow in the near future. Here in Australia, affordable EVs are finally here and we had a 100% growth in uptake, Thailand had 600% growth. Malaysia, Indonesia and majority of places around the world are taking up EV fast. Chinese EVs are going to sell like hotcakes if their government does not put barriers on it.
Even Russians are complaining about Chinese car quality. They won't compete and shouldn't be allowed in Western markets anyway due to the massive subsidies, tariffs, and price dumping.
Id expect China EVs to be banned in west. Period. It's just too visable and humiliating an export for French or US politicians to allow. US capped Japan ally car imports to keep 60% car making local. Europe will keep 80%. . . .China if smart will not try to sell cars but stick with selling batteries.... Cars also by definition need reliable manufacturer service and wow is Chinese customer service awful, they just laugh if you complain, that doesn't work if complaining about safety defect in family SUV.... Politicians will easily ban China car imports...
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China assembles the smart phones, they don't design them
Seeing the Bitcoin ETF Ad... Hey, china is running a huge ponzi but what about this one?
200 years ago VanEck would have sold snake oil ETF.
@@FalconXE302 You prefer shitcoins like USD? 🤣
Are less new bitcoin produced now that the biggest Chinese dam is not producing electricity at the moment?
@@johnharris1360 No, not the price, the demand or the electricity usage can affect the amount of Bitcoin being produced. That's the beauty of Bitcoin.
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Annette Marie Holt is the coach that guides me, you probably might have come across her before I found her through a Newsweek report. She's quite known in her field, look-her up.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
Amazing analysis. Unlike anything I've found elsewhere, and I've found a lot. Thank you gentlemen. Keep up the good work.
Easily the best analysis Ive seen regarding the current situation in China, thanks guys.
Same, and I've seen many
Jack is the best host on youtube.
Did the guest say "When Shanghai was a cow pasteur?" - Sir, Shanghai has been an international metropolitan city for hundreds of years...
Regarding Chinese real estate, sounds to me like what's happening there is no different than what's happening in U.S. stock market. Both were/are ponzis, exept theirs have burst, ours have yet to pop. They overbuilt real estate, and we're over building capital/market prices.
The U.S. has the reserve currency, thus we can export inflation/fiat for far longer than China can. China is less concerned about the stock market
🙏
Pudong which is across the river from the Bund ins Shanghai was undeveloped in the 1950s. Shanghai has been a major city for hundreds of years but was much smaller in area and population.
If your GDP is debt fueled and low margin, there won’t be enough cash flow to service the ever bigger debt load
Seems to work for USA and Japan. The can gets kicked down the road averting what would seemingly be a pending obvious disaster.
That's the US.
Most of Chinese debt is internal debt. Which they have stuck on their Local Governments and corporations, which they can sweep under the table
The USA has even more internal debt than China has, and yes they can sweep that internal debt under the table. But the USA has shown a history of taking that internal debt and turning it into an external Sovereign debt.
Which is basically sticking much of that debt, onto the American people
In the end China can pay off its external Sovereign debt. The USA can’t pay off their external Sovereign debt it stuck onto its people
@@DW-op7lyI don’t know about whether they can sweep it under the table. Certainly they are getting better at rolling it over. I don’t think USA and China have similar debt risks, external debt denominated in your own currency is manageable
China's Creative Accounting: How It Buried Its Debt and Forged Ahead with Stimulus
What is China's secret? According to financial commentator Jim Jubak, it may just be "creative accounting" -- the sort of accounting for which Wall Street is notorious, in which debts are swept off the books and turned into "assets." China is able to pull this off because it does not owe its debts to foreign creditors. The banks doing the funding are state-owned, and the state can write off its own debts.
Jubak observes:
China has a history of taking debt off its books and burying it, which should prompt us to poke and prod its numbers. If we go back to the last time China cooked the national books big time, during the Asian currency crisis of 1997, we can get an idea of where its debt might be hidden now.
The majority of bank loans, says Jubak, went to state-owned companies -- about 70% of the total. The collapse of China's export trade following the crisis meant that its banks were suddenly sitting on billions in debts that were clearly never going to be paid. But that was when China's largest banks were trying to raise capital by selling stock in Hong Kong and New York, and no bank could go public with that much bad debt on its books.
The creative solution? The Beijing government set up special-purpose asset management companies for the four largest state-owned banks, the equivalent of the "special purpose vehicles" designed by Wall Street to funnel real estate loans off U.S. bank books. The Chinese entities ultimately bought $287 billion in bad loans from state-owned banks. To pay for the loans, they issued bonds to the banks, on which they paid interest. The state-owned banks thus got $287 billion in toxic debt off their books and turned the bad loans into an income stream from the bonds.
Sound familiar? Wall Street did the same thing in the 2008 bailout, with the U.S. government underwriting the deal. The difference was that China's largest banks were owned by the government, so the government rather than a private banking cartel got the benefit of the arrangement. According to British economist Samah El-Shahat, writing in Al Jazeera in August 2009:
China hasn't allowed its banking sector to become so powerful, so influential, and so big that it can call the shots or highjack the bailout. In simple terms, the government preferred to answer to its people and put their interests first before that of any vested interest or group. And that is why Chinese banks are lending to the people and their businesses in record numbers.
In the US and UK, by contrast:
banks have captured all the money from the taxpayers and the cheap money from quantitative easing from central banks. They are using it to shore up, and clean up their balance sheets rather than lend it to the people. The money has been hijacked by the banks, and our governments are doing absolutely nothing about that. In fact, they have been complicit in allowing this to happen.
Huffington Post
Thanks
That's a great report.
Lots of very interesting insights.
Appreciate the overview and words of experience.
🎉🎉🎉
Thank you. This is extremely good. This is the best in-depth analysis that takes the right viewpoint in my opinion, which is that the CCP economy has to be analyzed completely differently from western economies. This guy may not be right in all respects with respect to what is going to happen in the future, but at least he’s hitting the nail on the head, in analyzing the CCP economy in his own unique fashion.
Concerns of a potential debt default in China triggered a market sell-off, impacting both digital and traditional stock markets.
Uncertainty surrounding Evergrande's situation fuels global financial fear as the Chinese haven't clarified their stance.
Japanese companies with operations in China, like Hitachi Construction Machinery, saw market value declines.
A potential Evergrande bailout could cause losses for Beijing banks and bondholders, with minimal global impact.
I've worked in construction across Asia, mainly Japan and China. The decision on when to pick an advisor is a very personal one. I take guidance from ‘ Monica Mary Strigle ‘ who shorted the Chinese index . she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Shorting the Chinese index is a bold move, is this a continuous strategy or just a one time thing and who is this Monica if I may and how did you make such a turn over?
Can we do a follow-up with Brian McCarthy to this? I want to know where China is now financially.
Great qualified guest on Chinese markets...would like to see more of him!
Brilliant analysis.
Always great guests and great insight here. Look forward to more.
Xi Jinping is nothing if not pragmatic in the worst sense. The "restructuring" of China will be brutal and may cost half the population. But that in Xi's mind is a low price to retain power. China as a prospective challenger to the US is finished, but to Xi that's not the only game in town.
Thanks for the guest’s insights. Very helpful. Please invite him back more on China. ❤
First time catching this channel, great interview! Please get a little sun.
After buying TSLA shares for 10 years, I'm struggling to make gains presently. How can I adjust or revamp a million dollar portfolio to make profits steadily, or do I consider defensive investments despite market high?
dollar cost average into the stock. when the price goes down, buy puts and reinvest to bring your average down, or better still seek professional guidance to avoid any fiasco
The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped for a crash. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly $1m, since covid outbreak to date.
good gains! how can I get such guidance if you dont mind me asking? i am 34 and new to investing, my ultimate goal is to set myself up for financial success so I can retire early and comfortable
Can't divulge much, I take guidance from *Whitney Kay Stacy* ' a renowned figure in her industry with over two decades of work experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.
thankfully came across the consulting page of melissa Maureen Ward just after inputting her full name on the web, i'm super impressed with her qualifications and it was easy to schedule a call session with her
Very good guest!!!
Wow, very informative interview guys!
I've always liked Brian, he's a good communicator
I would like to hear more on the host’s statement that in the 19th century the US engaged in IP theft (in lieu of innovation) comparable to what China has carried out in the last 75 years. Which presidents/Congresses directed such mass theft? And in what sectors did this program of theft-not-innovation did this occur? Fill me in.
its the Developers thats under duress. Chinese public still hv 1 of highest savings rate in the world at 40%, something he missed out completely.
An apartment (extreme example) in Shenzen/Beijing is about 46 times the average household income. Besides, ALOT of ppl are getting laid off or have their salaries reduced by 30%. This will take a decade at least to sort out.
@@FRIPPE_THE_GREATNo this will probably sort out in 1-2 years because most economist of China doesn’t look at geopolitics. China overtook Japan as the biggest car exporter in 2023. As of end 2023 Huawei’s sales of smartphones in China has risen to number 2 an increase of 59% yoy and Xiaomi has risen about 10% whereas Apple sales has dropped 10%. So innovation will be in China’s favor as car brands inJapan and Korea are destroyed by Chinese cars. Whereas once Huawei starts exporting smartphones Apple’s shares will decline significantly.
@skydragon23101979 you have to be economic illiterate if you think that smartphone export is going to solve these problems unless your market is the milkyway. Besides, exports are actually shrinking...
@@FRIPPE_THE_GREAT I am not talking about just smartphone exports also car exports, shipbuilding and plane construction.
@@skydragon23101979 and WHO is going to buy those?
And America's deficit is not a problem???
I like the Harold Lloyd look. You're just missing the boater hat ;-)
The overbuild in housing in the US in the 2008 crisis was, I have seen reported, 2-4%. In China it may be as high as 100%. Even if the number were 25% that is at least an order of magnitude larger.
The number of mortgages that are underwater is large and growing. People are willing to "give away" their properties. The idea here is that the new owner would just take over the mortgage. The original buyer would lose their downpayment and any other equity they have paid in but would be out of the mortgage. The option of personal bankruptcy in China does not exist. The government has actually been advertising, on electronic billboards, the names and ID information of over 8M defaulters, many of them homeowners. These people are restricted from using public transport in many cases, among other things.
On top of all of this there is the demographic crisis. Where is demand going to come from? The number of births is now lower than at time since the CCP took over. It is down 53% from the takeover.
As for the financial institutions, by western standards they would be insolvent. Several in their "shadow banking" sector, some of the biggest, have already failed. A big portion of the assets on their books is real estate. Disregard the official statistics. Housing stock in the used market is massive and prices are down somewhere between 25% and 50% depending on the location. Even in commercial office space, some of the biggest, richest cities are seeing 20% vacancy rates with no relief in sight. Don't forget the belt and road projects. The numbers I have seen show that 60% of those loans are at risk or non-performing.
By the way, while the counterparty risk was the big issue in 2008, the origin of the issue was government intervention in the housing market.
Those buildings in China, have you seen them? They might crumble after another 20 years, even without a natural disaster.
@@TR-xr4ut It only makes sense. You don't actually own the land, the state does. It is also a brilliant way to keep your construction buddies in business, constantly repairing and replacing. The construction industry is a good solid source of graft for the officials. So, everyone is happy, no?
@@louisgiokas2206 No, it costs money to build them, money that home buyers paid with their life savings and retirement funds, they throw everything into that apartment.
@@TR-xr4ut I am not sure how your comment is relevant to my comment. "No" what? Please elaborate.
that's brutal
China was pretty smug about the 2008 crisis
No they were stupid. They brought a big pile of crap and ever since they being selling it off for gold.
That's the exact same model that we're doing. We're just rolling over our debt over and over again. It is not sustainable.
Collectivism always ends in tears.
How could you get Peter Zeihan and Brian McKarthy together for a conversation that overlays economics, demographics, geography, and history? I’d pay to watch /listen to that
Three Concepts. "Liquidity has no Price!!!" "Confidence!!!" "Flight to Quality!!!"
If what he says comes to fruition in our lifetime, counterparty risk will be the biggest driver of prices. Period.
2:40 A rolling loan gathers no loss. Nice turn of phrase.
Ask VanEck when their RSX and RSXJ funds are going to resume trading. Or, will they sell them to some vulture like Paul Singer?
When, is the question. But a brilliant analysis.
Just think what is going to happen in America when folks realize the same thing has happened over here but not just in Real Estate but with everything. The actual value of assets in the US are half of what people think they are.
Very insightful thank you for the update.
Riveting. Awesome info.
Besides the economic downturn in real estate, the unused occupancy, in addition to the volume of unsafe, unusable tofu-dregs that will collapse, is untenable.
Very good and honest review.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
US government controls tech companies also, just less open about it.
24:50 While I agree with Brian on whole hose of things, I don't agree with Chinese GDP being fake. Yes China does have a property glut peoblem and its not trivial, I think Chinese wealth in general has increased dramatically to the extent that I would seriously considered living in their third Tier cities than places like LA with lack of infrastructure, parks, affordable transportation systen and safety. If anything, Chinese wealth are undercount if you consider the ownership of home, availability of affortable and fresh food the convinace of their advanced transport system. Yes consider an average worker in a third tier City might not buy much in America, but they certainly buy much better things than the majority of Americans in America.
Why did the host say china is ahead in phone tech? Theyre way ahead on surveillance software, but that's it.
Japanification is not a bad final outcome for China. Japan is a prosperous, peaceful and quite egalitarian society.
So China will take that option. Not every country want to be like the US
China supports business with a government bank, which is bottomless. Economic "equilibrium" may not mean what it means here where banks are private. In other words, banks here pocket the profit they make from interest fees and trading vs. banks there whose profit accrues to the government. That said, I would love to know what filter these men are using. Either they are using high-end makeup artists or they have a filter way beyond what Kari Lake uses.
So many negative news about China economy while Germany knocked Japan economy out that goes unnoticed. Yeh it's that bad 😅
Japan just lost its crown as the world’s third-largest economy
Japan’s economy has contracted unexpectedly because of weak domestic consumption, pushing the country into recession and causing it to lose its position as the world’s third largest economy to Germany.
Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the last three months of 2023, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday, after having contracted by an annualized 3.3% in the previous quarter. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Mmm, wonder if the dollar surges if gold bitcoin and emerging markets may fall … I’m guessing … lol
But they still has one of the largest foreign reserves right ? 🤔
China's economic relationship with Russia has huge growth potential. Pipelines for Oil Gas and water can bring all that used to go to Europe.
Highways tunnels and railroads to Russia Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the next huge infrastructure projects.
New mines and raw materials from existing mines can all go to China. Food can relieve hunger and gold and uranium are also wanted in China.
Russia can also export jet engine technology which would make Chinese jetliners saleable in the third world.
Russia needs chips for war products
China has lots of cheap consumers merchandise to fill Russian stores now that western companies pulled out. Now that Russia is on a wartime economy, it will give those working in the weapons factories, something to spend their rubles on.
China and Russia never had a good relationship. But since they are being forced together, they may find a lot of upside to the situation.
So you are basically saying that China is in big trouble because the government who controls the banks is running a Ponzi scheme. What about the US where the banks who control the government are running a Ponzi scheme? Which system would be better?
China got no debts to defaults at all??.. it is usa that actually defaults on 31.4 trillions usa dollars very very hugh financial debts troubles now???...
I have noticed a very common pattern. If you talk or write in English about bad things happening in China, then there will be many comments saying that the same, if not worse, things happen in the US too. If you do it in Mandarin, then the comments are they happen in Taiwan too.🤣
China hires Chinese students to defend the country. Those English writers studied outside so give example of us and those local students know only taiwan. They are hired and paid by government. 😂😂
@@popghana USA hires Chinese students to demo like thay did in HKG and failed. They are hired and paid by US government. more specifically NED
@@popghanain your wet dream
As a South Korean, I know how hard it is to shift from a government-driven investment-led model to a market-driven one. South Korea (the model of Deung's Open Policy) used to a typical investment-led model. The model the late President Park designed is a mixture of Lenin's 'unequal' development and Imperial Japan's Manchuria development, appied to a totally new context, the GATT regime coupled with a set of generous US policies toward South Korea. Of course, entrepreneurship has been amazing as Peter Drucker said.
This model got into a deep crisis in the 1970s. The Yom Kippur War and the first Oil Shock almost killed the economy. The Second Oil Shock following the Iranian Revolution was even worse. But the Value Added Tax system began to work in 1978, which gave transparency and checked moral hazard. (South Korea is one of the earliest adopters). And finally, the late President Park, in Jan. 1979, nine months before being assassinated, decided to shift to the market-driven model. They called it ‘the stabilization model’. (They called the investment-led ‘the growth-centered model’)... From Oct. 1979 to May 1980, a political turmoil. Then a military ‘junta’ came in. The junta gave full power to the civil bureaucrat elites, who had a firm belief in the market-driven model. By 1988, South Korea had got into a track toward a developed economy.
An authoritarian ruler (the late President Park) chose the VAT system for transparency and gave up the government initiative (for the shift to a market-driven economy). The junta gave full power to the civil bureaucrats. This type of reform is not at all a common phenomena.
The per capita GDP of South Korea in 1979 was just above that of China in 1990. China had done the opposite for the last 33 years. … Too strong ‘connections’ have developed between political power(the CCP), business men and the military(the PLA). No way back… This worries me since we South Koreans live next to China and are facing its puppet(North Korea).
Thank you for your response
Thank you for info on S Korea..... Half of the lesson is have market, and have stability, and let modern technology and methods work to boost output. It's hard to mess up the boost from cell phones, they save 1 hour a day by letting people connect faster and move data easier.. it's hard to mess up boost from stable electricity unlike old eratic power. Hard to mess up boost of reliable transport...... Hard to mess up boost of modern medicine but must drop all the stupidly of "Traditional Asian Medicine" and prayers....... Hard to mess up mega boost of letting female half of population work in all jobs..... Modern and safe banking .... modern water and sewer, , , , . We in West are impressed by S Korea, for using these modern tools so well....
South Korea use to have trade surpluses year over year with China
Now?
👇
South Korea, caught between the two superpowers, reported a trade deficit of US$18 billion with China in 2023 - its first such deficit since they established diplomatic relations in 1992, according to data from the South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE).Jan 16, 2024
Analysts suggest South Korea’s trade deficit with China will persist as Beijing reduces dependence on foreign chips
SCMP
There was only2 dollars in the begining,now there are trillions,it's a much dreaded syndrome of over population of dollars.who is going to stop it before they take over and polute the whole earth,I think we are doomed.😅😊😮
you understand your economics, for china to become consumer driven they would need to use the yuan as reserve currency and open their markets do you think they will try that, or try same model they have now?
"They could build nothing for ten years and still have enough houses." Unless you factor in that millions of those empty appartments are not actually complete to a habitable level, and those that are ready for habitation are such poor quality that many of them may be condemned if they don't collapse first. Add in the fact that many of them are built in ghost cities where nobody wants to live because there are no jobs in those locations and no community / family support network.
yeah they didn't complete them. Now the rain and weather and vegetation is tearing them down
@@ManwithNoName-t1o it's worse than that, corruption is rampant, to save money the concrete has more sand than cement and the rebar is made of pot metal.
My thoughts exactly. Besides, no further penny will spend to make them habitable even if they are not a death trap as you already suggested. I did rarely witness an abandoned project to be continued later, especially in housing and construction business..., even if the conditions are most favorable.
Americans should also built more homes.. this will lower inflation without increasing rates. Making living expenses cheaper is a better tactics than increasing rates. This will reduce homeless issues in America too. We can learn a lot from the Chinese.
Ah, the truth hurts. Big time.
I’m an equity manager based in Hong Kong. I’ve invested in China for 20 years but not interested in allocating capital to China markets anymore. HK/China markets will most likely be a value trap for years to come.
It looks like you would make a lot of money helping companies move out and relocate.
The Chinese and Russian and EU markets peaked in 2008 and with US banking help, EU has hobbled along slightly improving. But China and Russia never recovered. The past 16 years of your investment has been a loss. All the Chinese GDP numbers since that event are just made up as China has declined. Now the end of the bell curve and huge drop off you just noticed? You didn't notice when China installed Dollar export capital controls in 2015?
I am stunned you remain in HK instead of moving to Singapore. You need to see the Chinese factories close in person?
Johnny Guitar with the amazing collection of Tudor and Rolex watches? Big fan
Sir for your own good, you should get yourself a british passport and get out of Hong kong the future is going to be ugly
So, the subject material talks about how the China economy is a huge Ponzi scheme, yet there are ads for crypto durning the interview. 🙄
And how China needs to more loans to keep the Ponzi scheme alive. Sure sounds like the same basic workings of the Ponzi scheme that were being advertised.
Gotta pay the piper
oh the ironing
@@lorenrb80 😆
Crypto isn’t a Ponzi scheme, it is a bunch of people having fun playing a video game. More like gambling than investing.
The Nut: 1:17:36
"Wealth destruction on a scale never seen before."
This conversation is great.
Thank you.
There absolutely NO WAY that this huge fire IS NOT going to BURN US!!!!!
@@christopherelliot4964China never let US investors own anything but chinese equities which have ALREADY crashed. The pain is transitioning supply chains out of China which is why Mexico and Vietnam are booming.
Israel should buy a condo in China for everyone in gaza so they can live in a place were they don't have to fight eachother every day.
Nah, they just need to buy up all commercial real estate in NYC & convert them to residential all with US tax money & move there. Many of them have US citizenship like Blinken so it would be a very quick solution.
you have no moral and a sense of shaming in saying things like this.
With all due respect, thousands of years of murder and hatred. I think space between BOTH nations is a much better alternative that current arrangements. Maby the kidds of the next generation dont even need to be taught to hate at all and practice democracy.
@aaronb8698 hasn't been thousands of years. The area was Canaanite in the bronze age. It was isrealite for most of the Iron Age and it was Roman for about 700 years after that until 600 something A.D.
And it was strongly controlled property of the Ottoman Empire through the 1917.
It didn't really start getting violent until around 1900 when the Muslims in the area began having pogroms against the jews those combined with the Holocaust led to the establishment of both States
They all fight over their one holy hill they really want to have, if it was only about a place to live a solution would have been found long time ago.
Too much debt. Over priced RE. Govt reckless spending. Liabilities piling up. Interest rates artificially low. Insane borrowing. "Now they are stuck".
Is this China? Europe? or the US?
China
China has problems but does have super hardworking population who will work for $10000/yr and not expect any welfare or health benefits. This is better than France or UK or US. But yeah China has been dumb financially.....
@@mostlyguesses8385 there is little work now and wages slashed.
@@karylhogan5758 .... By definition there is always work, even if lower paid and grunt work. It's the genius of market forces... one might even say the West with Unions and Welfare and MUCH HIGHER TAXES is worse at choking off the desire to work... China has great labor policy but awful corrupt leaders.
China. Black box.
Incredible content, and a level of understanding that I haven’t heard before. Thank you.
I know it seems impossible, but the CCP has started a new initiative to build housing in rural communities. Yes, they are doubling-down on building more housing in China.
Maybe the party doesn't have as much control on the city states as we think they do
Because they still have tons of poor people in rural area living in terrible housing. It is a country of a 1.4bn people. The last time I was there a few years ago, even the middle class still live in small and substandard houses--you just need to be a guest to find that out. They have not overbuilt. They just need to make poor people more productive, so they afford better housing. In a way, hiring poor people to build housing is like Ford paying $5, so his workers can eventually afford his cars.
@@tannhaeuserx464 By every metric they have overbuilt and that over construction becomes more absurd because China will never be as politically suicidal as to try a western immigration system and will try to deal with a shrinking population in a rational manner. The problem is so much of it is built in a centralized manner meaning a lot of it is impractiable for use. Building concrete shells while ignoring rural towns and villages still living in 1910 serf conditions because the CCP has some weird issue with being disgusted by old chinese villages next to their modern buildings. So instead of upgrading the towns they just try to build a city in a random field like 100 miles away and try to push all those surronding townspeople into it
@@TheRiiiight Have you been to China and see how people there live? I have been quite some time and over and been to many places. Pudong district was developed, Milton Friedman called it a Potemkin village. I think you have less clue than he did.
@@tannhaeuserx464 I never said China is all underdeveloped for whatever shadows it is your trying to box with. Chinese cities are amazing and better than the dumpster fire trash heaps that passes for cities in modern America where they can't even sell commercial real estate or skyscrapers because they're literally fucking worthless. But rural china and rural america are not at all in the same ballpark when it comes to modern development.
China has a different economy than Western capitalist countries. In the West, at least 70% of the wealth is in private hands. When there is a bubble followed by a stock market shock, for example in 1929, then private capital collapses. The economy remains in the doldrums for up to half a decade until growing consumption needs slowly drags it back to normality. In China's case, 70% of the wealth is in the hands of the government in LGI's, SOE's, Central government corporations, and so on. The approximately remaining 30% is private holdings, which have severely collapsed. Large China banks are recycling government debt. The government owns the banks, which loan to the government which pay off the debt to the banks that the government owns ad neuseum. Small privately owned China banks have already collapsed. Meanwhile there is NO private holding liquidity in China. Even large corporations, like Alibaba where the founder is Jack Ma, has lost 78% of it's value. Finally, the CCP are going after foreign commercial law firms and accounting companies in China (to start with). This is the manifestation of the CCP's fiat Foreign Anti Espionage Law in which a SUSPICION of espionage by Western and other non-Chinese Asian individuals and their foreign firms can land them in a Chinese jail for an indetermined period of time (the is no Habeas Corpus in China) with trading indefinitely frozen for that company. Foreign companies are leaving China in ever increasing droves, including large Western banks like Bank of America. When banks leave, you know investment is at a dead end. The future of China also looks very bleak, so for the eternal hopefuls out there, go invest instead in India or Indonesia. Your investment risk is now lower than China's with potentially higher returns, like in the early days of China, as these very large countries economies are still largely under developed with a young dynamic demographic. However, In terms of demographics of China, it is literally in terms of growth at a terminal end thanks to the One Child Policy. China's median population age is now higher than the United States. Old people are not heavy consumers. This failing demographic for China is unrecoverable for the next 40 years. Go elsewhere.
It wasn't One Child Policy, they didn't build enough hospitals, daycares, schools, and police who would stop 1m kidnappings. With this situation from 1990 to 2020 avg Chinese mom said ok zero or 1 kid for me. Only exception is the 10% rich and 20% very small villages. The commies chose this by having a sucky country. US sucks in other ways ... India and Indonesia at the least dont have massive child kidnapping the police ignore...
Chinese population structure is:
16 grandparents.
8 uncles and aunts.
4 children.
So, the total population 16+8+4=28
20 years later, 16 grandparents passed away. ❤
2 new children will be born.
The total population becomes 8+4+2=14.
China’s population will be halved from 28 to 14 in one generation.
Imagine how bad the domestic consumption and investment could be. plus the decoupling, China’s export could be worse and worse.
@umbrellastudio7481 everyone knows the One Child Policy that killed more than 200 million fetuses.
What if china is trying to get int'ntnl credibility for yuan? Global south trading partners r willing 2 use cny as trading currency but not hold it as a reserve currency bc they think it will devalue. Thus Ccp is holding the line. Waiting till US fed pivots n prints more $$$. So that CNY can replace USD as a stable asset.
Note that 10 yr chinese govt bonds interest rates r 2% while US r 4%
It takes MAJOR shift to replace world currency. US Dollar replaced UK pound after 2 world wars and when US was 60% of world economy in 1948. China at 15% is less than US 20%, and US has EU and Japan as friends so add some of that 30%. And US military sorta adds a bit, the US will get angry if any nation shifts to Yuan so if Saudis do it US will bomb or withdraw and laugh as region collapses. China needs not 1 aircraft carrier but 30 and then Saudis will see a new partner to rely on, China is decades from 30...... China at 15% world GDP has peaked, heading towards 10%... China in 1930 with 20% of world population has great opportunity but then till 1990 they let west have decades of building headstart.....
I got to invite Gordon Chang, the best china expert. LOL
In China you can buy gold, but every purchase is registered so the gold can be easily confiscated. And it is illegal to take gold out of China. They will stop and confiscate gold at the airport.
You cannot buy gold in china using unguarantee usa dollars???... so usa dollars is consider useless inside China??...all due to usa not dare to assure and guarantee its usa dollars notes???... so if usa dont guarantee it dollars for hold??. Then china also ban usa dollars for buying gold in china also???..
China is smart ban gold from bring out of china???...
China is practically dead.
Who does a policy like this help? Is it meant to help anyone or is it retaliatory? @@awjames1121
Just spoke my relatives. They have no problem buying gold bars and gold ornaments.@@awjames1121
The CCPs move further into authoritarian governance and laws should have investors realizing they cant expect China to follow the same moves the US Fed/banks would to resolve these issues.
The CCP pulls tge strings mentioned to stay in power. They have to. There ia no leader next in line. There is no other party to switch to if this one fails for 4 or 8 years. I love China and its people. The CCP is a different story.
Great insights. Is China still the leader of the BRICS?
Brics isn't even a thing, it's literally a marketing term made up by Goldman Sachs. The organisation is essentially just a forum for discussion and has no power
This news is OLD.... maybe 2 years old... And still China Real Estate has not collapse. Buying property in major cities are still expensive!
What is he talking about. He keeps repeating the same thing Buzz words over and over. Mal investment, waste of resources, massive, mis- allocation of resources. How about a few examples of what you're talking about.
Short seller Jim Chanos put out the warning years ago and no one listened.
War and economics experts believes that mighty china property troubles are commercial business failure not national troubles??..
So just let the failure go bankruptcy so simple??.. but the troubles will become banker and finances and foreigner investors who will has to losses all their investments?? ... so just bad luck for the investors who will has zero returns at all???..
We are actually worried about usa defaults on 31.4 trillions usa dollars very very hugh financial debts troubles now??...so usa actually is a bankruptcy nation now soon automatic collapse??...
2.. usa overprinted its usa cheap 0.002cents a piece usa 100dollars face value dollars 💸 notes??.. and cost to mass print each piece of 100dollars face value dollars is actually cost only 0.002cents a piece??.. and usa overprinted its usa dollars to so many times to 500 trillions very very hugh financial debts troubles now??...and usa dare to overprinted BUT not dare to assure and guarantee its overprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now??... like we all can very easily exchange for 1ozs of pure solid gold coins?. For how much usa dollars anymore now??... why ??.. wh😊y usa not dare to assure and guarantee its overprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now???...why is it really usa got no more solid gold to assure and guarantee its overprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now???....
So usa not dare to be responsible for usa overprinted dollars 💸??... has motivated all nations to ditch usa overprinted dollars ???... and all dont want to trade in unguarantee usa overprinted dollars anymore??... so we believes that all nations will not accept usa unguarantee dollars into their banks anymore???... and usa 😮will only be use inside usa only??.. and not acceptable outside usa anymore soon????.. all due to usa unguarantee its dollars anymore???...
So we all are worried that very soon usa dollars will becomes worthless and useless currency soon???... all because usa not dare to assure and guarantee its overprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now???.... so we suspect usa dollars will becomes worthless and useless currency soon???....as usa no😊t dare to guarantee pure dollaoverprinted dollars trustworthy anymore now?...like we all can very easily exchange for 1ozs of pure solid gold coins for how much usa dollars anymore???... so we all worry that usa dollars will becomes worthless and useless currency soon and no more worth holding anymore???...why usa not dare to guarantee???... something fishy 🐟???...
Such a good podcast, contains everything you need to know about the most important macro-economic elements in China on a national level and in global context.
Prince of the yen the book movie. Tells of Japan after world war 2 . Before destructive central banks came around stupid decision
Trouble yes, collapse no… people react to problems and adjust their problem solving technique if the solutions aren’t working
The Ponzi -Fiat system used world wide, you can be SURE it will collapse sooner or later. The Romans invented the scheme, because of greed, it collapsed & everyone using it since then collapsed, this great Ponzi system will do also.
These two “ experts “ don’t know what they are talking about I shouldn’t think the Chinese are at all worried about what they have to say. They would be better investigating why the richest country in the world has 187 million people drowning in debt with no money even though some are working 3 jobs. How about that?
It is now illegal for taxi drivers in China to talk to people about sensitive topics. Every conversation in the taxi’s these days are monitored and censored in real time.
Not true.
If Trump gets re-elected our financial trauma will be much worse than you describe. Think more fundamentally about financial opportunity in a chaos environment. Think the USSR to Russia 90s transition shock. He is unpredictable. He operates on a whim and on grievance. Also the mob is more in control than he is. Another conversation entirely of course just pointing out the benign reference to the potential Trump impact on markets and economies.
FINALLY! I've discovered someone who understands China's economic/banking ILLUSION. Brian, don't forget to explain how the PBOC must maintain (manipulate) the VALUE of the Yuan to continue to engage in foreign trade. The Yuan has been inflated to the point of being worthless from a market perspective, it only has value based on the Chinese "GRAND ILLUSION."
I haven't been to China but from what I have dug up online most parts look like a third world country. They show a city at night with the lights on so it resembles a Western city like New York but the reality is women are choosing sex work in droves and the average worker lives in poverty.
Yep China is identical to Brazil just bigger.. mostly peasants who can't count or read their tough language, and corrupt politicians who demand cut of profits.... I almost feel bad for them..
The best sex workers are from US. Number one!
The interviewer has zero idea on totalitarianism and a culture of deception. He imagined every single communist Han Chinese is just like an honor-bound Anglo-Saxon manager in Bank of England.
😂😂😂a relative works for an American aeronautic manufacturer and was contracted by China to work on their 737 knockoff. They constantly pressured him to show them his Boeing and Airbus manuals. 7 years and counting and still no airplane😂😂😂
China leads in 37 of 44 critical technologies of the future but let’s just focus on where they are behind on right now 🙄.
In fact there is a 7 volume 27 book series on what the Chinese invented that says we stole from them
Including the invention of the Rocket
What happened to China you might ask?
China spent the better part of a millennia trading places with India for top economy in the world
By the 1430s it was by far
the top economy and technological leader in the world .
But their emperor at the time started the slow process of closing in on itself closing off its borders their own nationalism
Like we are seeing with far right Governments and you Americans these days
This lead to 400 years of decline and then an eventual semi colonization of China for 100 more years
And
They did not run up the external debt like you Americans are running up these days
👇
IP Theft Is What Once Helped Make America Great
That was certainly the case for the United States. The practice of grabbing intellectual property was a staple of U.S. economic strategy since the outset of the nation’s founding. The play Hamilton has brought new and deserved respect to the first secretary of the treasury. But his many economic achievements should not blind us to the fact that theft of intellectual property was a linchpin of his manufacturing strategy.
RealClearMarkets
Will never work because they don’t have the secret aether tech from the hidden millennium history
919 made in China flying making domestic flights and soon international flights. 929 is under test. At the recent air show in Singapore they received many international orders. There's no need for recipes. Make a trip to China to see for your self.
Why would they copy the 737 with its problems of crashing?.
It comes down to battle of debt kings,U.S. or China,which one will spend their countries into bankruptcy first? 😮😅😢
As a retired CPA/bank examiner/auditor (25 years with the FED), I fully agree with the Ponzi scheme analogy. Brian McCarthy has more clarity on China's "scheme" than I've heard from anyone else. However, the Chinese cultural scheme (with aid from CCP/PBOC) has a different huge wrinkle. The Western analysts' failure to understand Chinese economics is our predisposition to accept their financial statements and financial data as having SOME level of reliability. The Chinese have leveraged their grand illusion to bleed capital from the West and keep the ball rolling. I'm of the opinion that debt/liabilities regularly disappear from financial statements and economic data. "All the risk rolls up to the government, and then it become a question of credibility...and do people want to hold the liabilities of that government?" That is true to a point. Because the Chinese have no respect for Western accounting, the "rolled-up" liabilities cease to exist..."poof"...they'd disappeared. This is what short-circuits all market forces and allows the economic illusion to continue indefinitely.
It is a mafioso mentality.
West: you owe me $1 billion dollars in interest on that loan I gave you, CCP.
China (while polishing their gun on the table): what are you talking about, I don't owe you any money. Who dis? New phone.
@@dameongeppettoit's an interesting game when you realize there are no rules
Tell that to Arthur Anderson!
Did I understand you correctly? Are you saying that China's system is bad, and the FED is good? I hope I'm wrong.,
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She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@Michellekenner
She’s verified as well.
Nice, I was just hodling before I found Micaela . In my opinion she is the very best out there.
Micaela have been my backbone since last year, she brought me many profits.
As an observer of Japan’s post-bubble economy, I see a lot of parallels. Given the power of the central government in China, I don’t think we’re going to see collapses like we’d seen in other economies like Greece or Argentina; rather, a protracted stagnation like we’d seen in Japan similar to Japan’s Lost Decades.
In any case, I don’t think China’s nominal GDP will surpass the US for a long time ~ if not ever.
There is 2 things that is in China’s favors that he dismisses one is US lowering interest rates should a recession hit US 2 innovation in China holding up the GDP. China unlikely to go the way of Japan because China has innovation on her side whereas Japan had the plaza accord and the chip restrictions that destroyed Japan’s economy. China has BRI and chip breakthroughs plus innovation. Besides China still has BRICS currency.
PPP conversion factor to market exchange rate for Japan is 0.95, and only 0.61 for China. There is a lot more headroom for China.
@@danielch6662 Yup exactly there is plenty of options for China’s growth in the short term.
@@skydragon23101979How did the Plaza accord destroy Japan economy may I asked?
@@LanNguyen-vd4zt The plaza accord devalues the dollar and indirectly raises the value of Japanese yen which to an export driven economy is a huge blow.
Music to my ears
He forgot to mention food. The Chinese import most of their food as well.
Or goes and steals it from other countries’ maritime EEZs.
as Trade and/or diplomatic ties weaken, these countries will be much less tolerant of these incursions .
Not true. Some not most.
they import 60% of food or component to make food like fertilizer
They either import it in the legitimate/conventional way, or they simply go into other peoples’ fishing grounds and steal it.
< Waves hello from the Republic of the Philippines>
Property is distressed in every country. China's property has its chsllenges but unlike America's
The ICBMs that China has aimed towards the US almost certainly run on American-designed chips. Seems absolutely insane that the US allowed that to happen. Now that the US finally has a Chips Act, it seems masochistic to have left so many wide gaps in it. Makes my blood boil.
The corruption of the two-party system is to blame. This is a great point you made.
americans have a back door in the chips... This was stated and why Xi is purging everyone... He knows we know they are defenseless
The head of the Chinese rocket forces was recently sacked because it was found that a huge proportion of their strategic missiles were non-functioning. As in the fuel tanks were actually filled with water.
You would be surprised to learn that chips that go into space in the modern day still use ancient chips from the early 90’s. Chips act does not solve that.
Microchips are just a commodity now like corn or wood. They have proliferated around the world and can't be regulated away except at the bleeding edge, which aren't needed for ICBMs (we had those in the 60s).
So this podcast talking about the China Ponzi scheme is slso advertising a bitcoin Ponzi scheme. Hmm.
I’m usually sceptical of American China doomsayers however he spoke lots of sense. Worrying decade for China coming
same here. I usually laughed at those ppl cuz it's very easy to realize mot of their thesis are BS if one knows a little about China. This guy's thesis sounds legit and this time could really be different.
@@yangliu3224 its not different... This is a chinese civizational collapse cycle... We are seeing absolute failure... Worse than USSR...
So that is why usa has to suffer very very hugh financial debts troubles now????....
I have spent several decades in the institutional investment world in Asia, and Brian’s words resonate completely. Amazing how these ideas are finally consensus.
ugh VAT, NO THANK YOU! sales tax is bad enough!
What you think of Alibaba stock's future?
China's economy is in bad shape but American one might be collapsing. Buy some gold.
Would really like to see you interview Kyle Bass to juxtapose against what is said here and see how it lines up.
Kyle Bass, Brian McCarthy, and Michael Pettis, all sorta agree.
The entire Population of France could move to China. As a German, I have mixed feelings about that.
Basically what i got from this interview is that most of what was said applies to the US to whatever extent as well. Key exception being that China is authoritarian run and the government has no one else to pass the hot potato to in 4 years time and has decided to pop the bubble. And its worth noting that it has actually afford itself to do so. Who else can? On a side note, one funny thing Brian mentioned is that deflation is wealth destruction. But so is inflation, so what’s up with that?
Deflation destroys the wealth of the wealthy by driving capital asset prices lower while inflation drives the wealth and survivability of those without much wealth into poverty. So, he is correct but the question that should be addressed is "Is it better to have credit inflated assets collapse in price, the blameless wealth of the rich or is it better to have a lower cost of living. The caveat to that is that many of those who are not well off will lose their jobs and suffer along with the rich. The short answer is that we actually need a depression and the sooner we have it the better.
Too many people who are otherwise sound talk of the hardship as unimaginable that comes with a depression but to quote Brian "that ship has already sailed." We will have hardship regardless and turning a few dials (say, liquidity injection or interest rate reductions) will not solve that conundrum.
@@davisutton1So actually deflation is infinitely worst than hyperinflation? Deflation the wealth of the rich is destroyed but the poor lose their jobs. Inflation the poor moves into poverty but may maintain their jobs while the rich get richer?
I'm thinking is he describing the way the US works?
deflation is 10 times much worst, it mean your people no longer have the money to buy things and drove the economic downward while inflation means its a healthy economic, just dont inflate like 100%
In the 1930s deflation parts of the country literally tan out of cash. No one was willing to surrender a dollar today for a pair of shoes because those shoes would sell for 90 cents next week. Utah tried to put in place faux currency of sorts so farmers could sell wheat to buy diesel. Deflation is nasty stiff. Read the forgotten man by amity shlales
Beijing government is not going to bail out greedy developers and those buyers indulging in excessive speculation. President Xi has already warned them that houses are for staying in
32:02 Another point I disagree, The world definitely wants and needs Chinese EVs and other cars. For context, China car export was less than 1 millon in 2020, in 2023, 5 millions were exported. I think this trend will continue to grow in the near future. Here in Australia, affordable EVs are finally here and we had a 100% growth in uptake, Thailand had 600% growth. Malaysia, Indonesia and majority of places around the world are taking up EV fast. Chinese EVs are going to sell like hotcakes if their government does not put barriers on it.
Even Russians are complaining about Chinese car quality. They won't compete and shouldn't be allowed in Western markets anyway due to the massive subsidies, tariffs, and price dumping.
Id expect China EVs to be banned in west. Period. It's just too visable and humiliating an export for French or US politicians to allow. US capped Japan ally car imports to keep 60% car making local. Europe will keep 80%. . . .China if smart will not try to sell cars but stick with selling batteries.... Cars also by definition need reliable manufacturer service and wow is Chinese customer service awful, they just laugh if you complain, that doesn't work if complaining about safety defect in family SUV.... Politicians will easily ban China car imports...