Unemployment is an odd concept in an economy where for so many folks it’s necessary to work multiple jobs just to get by. Loose one and you’re counted as employed but suddenly don’t have enough money to live.
The economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
@@Antiquated-EtherThat's bullshit on a stick. Not everyone is born with equal opportunities, and the skew is getting larger every day. For some people, the amount of effort required to get a decent living is truly enormous. For others, it is given at birth, no effort required. That is the reality of life. Pretending that it is all up to individual effort is, kindly out, naive. I have other, not so kind words, for it.
What politicians and economists should really take away from this video is this: lack of industrial policy means you are subject to the industrial policy of another country. It’s such a simple message that’s really not widely broadcast.
Actually regulations on and socialist policies in the west on industry results in the exposure to the freedoms of international companies / manufacturers / R&D shareholders
My take away is the four pillars of the economy are interacting and artificially boosting one (eg. investment) means you are draining another (household consumption).
In other words, don't F with US and the west. They can send your country back 30 decades because there are other options and other friendly nations around the world to partner with
@@jameslawrence2139 what choice do they have when they don't invent anything themselves? They will always be a few steps behind and at the mercy of another country.
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
Even with the right strategies and assets in place, investment returns can still vary between investors. It's important to recognize that experience is a key factor in achieving success. I came to understand this myself and sought the advice of a market analyst, which helped me grow my account to nearly a million. I wisely withdrew my profits just before the market correction and am now capitalizing on new buying opportunities.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
thank you for this tip , I must say Melissa, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
Gotta love all these channels keep making whole videos of. CHINA DOWN FALL. Type shit while their economy has been doing nothing but growing, like last year, remember all those channels keep spamming those videos of china Economy collaps😂. Their gdp grew by 5,2% of 17,89 trillion, while Germany gdp shrunk by 0.3 I don't see them making 20 videos on that, Canada, grew by 1%, France grew by 0.8%. 🤷🤷. Why don't they make videos on that?
@@delanofernandes6471 Bcs the guy is a finance professor. These financial guys do not understand the real economy but only the financial aspect of it.
Yep, and you can measure how spot on he is by the increasing number of pro-Chinese bots and "little pinks" that he attracts! BTW, another part of the 'reluctance' to increase household spending is the fear that rising capitalist-style consumption might also threaten the hold of the CCP... a la "Tiannamen Square".
@@delanofernandes6471cuz china is america's competitor and threat while the others are not. i suspect many of those videos are sponsored by the government.
Well, he made it sound like this is a Chinese mistake. But by design they intended to subsidize manufacturing. And by keeping currency low they intend to export employment to developing world since they don't have high-tech employment to begin with. Now it's difficult for the west to picture a global south living like developed countries with high tech equipment, but the Chinese sees it. The idea to trade fish for solar panels, EV, and AI chips.
@@davidbranch2020in my opinion one of them is Michael Howell. He comes with a very different - yet complementary - perspective to the one of Michael Pettis. Michael Howell sees, with quite compelling arguments, the economy as driven by liquidity cycles and then liquidity as well driven by and driving economic cycles.
Great interview. Maybe I understood about 30 to 40% of Michael’s theory. Sounds like all roads lead back to transferring wealth to households and requiring more consumption. Unless countries are willing to accept a 1930’s style deleveraging event.
My portfolio’s been all over the place since the attempt on the presidential candidate. Combine that with China’s economic crisis, and it feels like everything is falling apart.
I can relate! That's exactly why I made the choice to protect my investments with an expert like Desiree Ruth Hoffman. She's truly made a huge difference in my financial strategy.
Oh, I’ve heard that name a few times now. The most recent was in an interview I watched. Guess I’ll be clearing my schedule to search the internet for her contact.
I've also observed her name gaining prominence across various platforms, highlighting her exceptional ability to navigate through these challenging times.
Despite all of the controls, economists are the last group of people still able to express their views. It's cool that people of the caliber of Pettis are still allowed in universities in Beijing, even though they don't do what he opines about due to political reasons. Will the transfer of wealth move from industry to households? Which sector is going to take the brunt of the rebalancing of debt from property? Will some freedom be given back to the private sector to boost confidence? Will foreign inflows come back up? How much control will they give up as the industry's powers need to give up some of it to help households and the service sector? Will the social safety net increase as the population ages?
@@davidlai399 their legitimacy to rule is based on the economy. You spun it the opposite way. It’s more the fact that they need people like him to come up with solutions.
@@zz3410 It goes both ways. Just because he is needed by the system doesn’t mean he has to stay there, and if the system hasn’t been listening to his advice, he would probably have left long ago. In general the Chinese government operates under a constant sense of crisis, perhaps being aware history and dynastic cycles, and thus is more open minded to feedback than assumed.
@@davidlai399 they’ve made slow, gradual adjustments but of course, political reasons prevent structural changes. Will it be the first country to escape the middle income trap with their structure? Time will tell.
It's not private industry that controls most of wealth in China, it's the Party which dominates the national economic landscape. So, no chance that a rebalancing of national wealth back to individuals could happen because it would mean a transfer of power as well.
@@alexmacchalatte You noticed that, the host tried a lot to brought the politics into the chat, how can the speaker to manage to speak out his theoretical point purely regarding macroeconomics. You can see all his saying was under the atmosphere of geopolitics. If You are saying he made some points from the American perspective under the current geopolitical atmosphere. I'm ok for that. If you are saying he made good points purely from the economics perspective, you are literally lying.
@@andyy9261 My point is that his explanation on how the manipulation of macroeconomic levers between countries affects others and how to balance them out was the best I've ever seen. And while the economist spoke somewhat from an American perspective, his recommendations on how to balance the effects of China's economic policy towards the US was focused solely on economic measures to establish a more "Fair Trade" policy than the naive approach of the past. He also discussed the same about Japan's economic policy. He even provides recommendations on how China could ease its economic challenges. He did not, however, delve into measures using other aspects of national power such as diplomatic, information or military.
This is probably the best economics talk I’ve heard! Normally I get frustrated by the dogma of economists, but the professor’s nuanced view of the world economy was both eye opening and refreshing! thank you for this interview
Watch the YT videos on the title below .China don't care about the stock market- How China Dominates the Global Export Business | Louis Gave Markets: China isn't 'following the script' of the West, investment firm says
More than ten years ago, I enrolled in a university course taught by him that covered complex macroeconomic topics. It was an exceptionally idea-provoking course and remains the best I have ever taken.
As an entrepreneur i always find that Chinese economy is always wrongly read by Western analysts. Chinese leaders don't think of economy in its purest form but also based on cultural and philosophical aspect.
its backpedaling because communism is a disaster. you’ll see it everywhere in china, “oh its because of unrelated move of jupiter influencing fishing tides” or some nonsense.
Exactly. The culture is if your business is too successful you get arrested. The culture is if you evaluate economic sectors and individual firms within those sectors for their credit worthiness and expansion plans your a consulting firm gets shut down. It's a culture all right. It's just not a capitalist culture and if you have some capitalist income you'd be kind of nutty to invest in it.
Yes, the CCP thinks of the economy in a more practical but not particularly philosophical sense, the economy is to serve the interest of the Party, not of the nation, and certainly not individuals. In a way, that's cultural as well because that had been the case for the past 2000 years.
I watched the previous interview and was very happy there was a sequel. Such a great interview to learn macro economics and the dance between economies of the US , China, and the rest of the world
Very enlightening revelation of today global economic problems and challenges. I personally feel that the current GDP growth of China is just right. Firstly they have to arrest the run away housing industry before it is too late. Secondly they have to upscale their manufacturing industries from low tech industries to high tech industries to enable industrial restructuring to ensure sustainable future growth. This industrial restructuring should auger well for other developing countries in the sense that more labour intensive industries will leave China to these countries. However moving up to the value chain in whichever industrial activities will definitely impact negatively on the western world like US.
Agree. If it were still 8%+ I'd be worried for China. I think they could maintain that percentage for a couple of years but it's time to transform China's economy into a more advanced one. 5% sounds like a good number, don't want it lower or higher
I think that Pettis is referring to emerging industries, sometimes referred to as embryonic industries. They definitely need projection until they are mature enough to compete. But protection is recommended when industries can’t compete cost-wise. If Chinese goods are too cheap, other countries have no choice but to implement tariffs.
Gotta love all these channels keep making whole videos of. CHINA DOWN FALL. Type shit while their economy has been doing nothing but growing, like last year, remember all those channels keep spamming those videos of china Economy collaps😂. Their gdp grew by 5,2% of 17,89 trillion, while Germany gdp shrunk by 0.3 I don't see them making 20 videos on that, Canada, grew by 1%, France grew by 0.8%. 🤷🤷. Why don't they make videos on that?
Let's say their economy only has 1% growth, that's still like 8 times more than Canada 1%. 1% of 17,89 trillion is more than 1% of 2 trillion. Yet china is doing bad I guess
No choice? How about improve their processes, innovate on the cost side, implement better economic policies, move into other areas where they CAN compete.
The problem with increasing consumption is that in order for China to do this they have to import certain raw materials and other inputs, and in order to pay for that, they have to keep up exports. I am not saying that they have to grow exports or that, exports can't diminish a little bit and consumption growing despite this, but I am saying that they can't get into massive trade wars with their biggest trading partners and just grow consumption by handing out money= simple solution. What they will get in that case is massive inflation.
Jesus christ!! I had to listen to this 3 times..at 1.5x then at normal speed...The students of this professor will be trail blazers...such lucky Fellows!!
They're still living in a somber mood for losing their entire savings in the collapse of Evergrande. Many experts now said they could take over 20 million units half finished / unfinished properties for a cheap deal of a century.
Retired at 50 few years ago, $1m in the bank. More time with my wife. 3-5 trips to the gym each week that I couldn’t do while working. Way less stress. More time for hobbies. Cycled 5,000 miles my 1st year of retirement. Joined a golf league that work travel had prevented. Actually have seen our net worth INCREASE nearly each year in retirement, thanks to no debt and years of dedicated investing with my FA joanna claire who made me a million after giving her a sum of one hundred and eighty thousand to start. Now i'm able to help my elderly mom more. Way more time spent outdoors with my family. Life is good!
What has not been discussed is most manufacturers are from America produce product in China and sell it back to America. Another issue is that America control items which they want to sell China wants..
1:17:40. Protests were reported outside some of those smaller Chinese banks that went under. Non-guaranteed deposits were deemed “illegal” and therefore ineligible for payouts.
*Your explanations are clear and straight forward It's always a honor to have you here as a mentor, I appreciate you for the time being spent to educate us financially. Regardless of how bad it gets the economy, I still makeover $28K every single week. I truly value Laura, and her helpful guides*
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional.
I know Laura, she has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in the UK as she has been really helpful and changed lots of lives.
Technically, Pettis is an accountant which makes all the difference, he does not allow himself the delusions that most economists entertain (except some of the Austrians).
Why not return the money, paid by homebuyers, who didn't get any homes in return because of the real estate collapse? And confiscate the properties of the real estate company CEOs, who earned undeserved millions ?
I assume you’re referring to housing in China, it the problem is the same generally: where does the money come from to clear the homebuyer’s left holding the bag? At the moment there is a slow running liquidation and government assumption of real-estate assets prioritizing making first time home buyers whole and then other homebuyers. But there’s a dilemma, to raise capital to pay back homebuyers you need to either supply it from tax payers via government accounts or sell some of the assets of these companies (or presumably deliver the promised asset). Government accounts to a large degree relied on the property sector which as it collapses presents a fiscal challenge to covering existing obligations let alone making homebuyers whole. If you sell the excess housing stock to raise capital to pay people back you further depress value by flooding the market when the bubble is already deflating. Finishing construction also acts as a jobs program and seems to be favored overall but it takes time. In principle, you could also wait for the market to bottom out and then have people sell the large excess of investment housing to those waiting for housing. The problem there is geographical allocation doesn’t seem to reflect the market demand. ETA: Professor Pettis walks through the timing argument and reallocation around the 1:25 minute mark. He doesn’t address the heterogeneity of the Chinese housing supply but he spells put much more clearly how this is basically a transfer from those with more assets to those with fewer in such a way that it’s likely better for the economy overall at the cost of more immediate pain.
The US led higher interest rates is a major cause but not many mentioned. Why? Exchange rate of many countries like S Korea Japan Malaysia EU had weak currencies reducing the purchasing power. Specially the countries who holds a lots of US bond and US dollar reserves get effected more. Korean EU and Japanese import had dropped a lot. Interest rate is high and properties sales also drops in general.
I'd suggest taxing money leaving is probably more effective than trying to tax money as it enters. Neither will be easy and both will create imbalances (exactly as the original subsidy created the trade imbalance), but a rapid unrestricted sell-off and export of currency would be immediately self destructive.However, a restricted/taxed sell-off and export would still slow external investment, but only incrementally rather than in total.
Invest in yourself and a network of people with self sufficient capabilities, when the entire ponzi collapses come together to take over the market place.
It is not wealth transfers from households to manufacturing, Chinese households’ savings increased huge. It’s the lack of social security: kids’ education, medical, retirement leads to reluctant spending, and wealth shrink due to property prices decline
Before any Academic can hold a position in advising the government about any economic policies, they should be required to travel, in an RV, ( no planes nor limo's) across the Country, stopping in "Small Towns" all along the way. Lacking contact with the working man's reality, those people will continue to make foolish decisions. We did this 15 years ago - traveling from Phoenix,AZ. to the South West Coast of Florida. An eye opener we will never forget. Walmarts, Home Depo's, Costco's, drive up gas & meals to go had pulled all the $$ from former Small Entrepreneurs . Store after store either boarded over or replaced with ' Potters ville. So sad to see - it broke our hearts. Thank you Mr. Kissinger.
Labour got too powerful, complacent and corrupt for their own good in the 70s. No one could afford anything during hyperinflation environment. Taiwanese, Japanese, and subsequently, Chinese goods brought inflation under control.
fair point. unlike Michael Pettis (the guest) I (Jack Farley, the host) am not an expert but I view BRI as exporting capital as well as exporting some bridge materials, most of which I imagine has to be assembled/built in the local country (not China)
@@BlockworksHQ as far as I know, all BRI projects are exclusively contracted to Chinese construction firms using imported Chinese labor and imported Chinese steel. China expects BRI loans to be paid back, most likely in the form of mineral rights or leased/ceded territory ala British Hong Kong.
Local governments in China have asset, but the declining value of those asset prevent them from selling them, ergo selling them exposes their bankruptcy
China has no end game. It is CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING on its technology and manufacturing process. And it is expanding its export to the world and import from the world. China works with the world for a better tomorrow. That is not an end game. There is no "trap." There is no "domination." You work with China, you grow with prosperity, together. That is FORVER IMPROVEMENT.
@@LowenKM Chinese government asked Google to provide data and store data in China. Google refused and left with all its applications. Same like TikTok that US asked for the data in US and TikTok complied. China did not band Google apps. You don't even know why Google left ... you just make up your mind and think with your what is made up in your mind.
@@LowenKM But does that in conflict with what I said above? What is the big deal of China blocking YT and FB? They have been known to be the platforms of color revolutions. Here is the problem with people like you. When you cannot argument on content, you argue for "freedom or democracy or whatever".
@@LowenKMYes, they haven’t given up on their data sovereignty and have avoided being dominated by US intelligence-collecting big tech. Instead of deflecting the topic to parrot clichés, What’s your counter-argument in response to the above comment?
It's the basic international capital and money cycle... should be long understood by everyone. US$ being the dominant international currency, US has to run a trade deficit no matter what - it's that simple, by design. I will argue, when US no longer runs a trade deficit, US& will cease to be the dominant fiat currency. There's no right or wrong. Each country's role during a period of history is simply different. Also, debt denominated in local currency (US debt in US$, China debt in RMB) is not debt, it's simply a currency tax. It will never be paid back, it will be inflated out.
I've been living in China for almost 15 years, and of course I always pay close attention to anything happens down here, and I have to say that Michael Pettis is one of the very few "real" expert out there about China and Chinese Economy. 99% of the other people you hear talking about China or they aren't in China and they only rely on second hands information or they are what we call over here "white monkey", a tool of propaganda. Pettis has unbiased views on the subject, besides being a great economist.
Point of order: when tariffs are used to fund government expenditure, the effect is a transfer from private consumption to public consumption. Private consumption is highly variable according to the marginal propensity to consume. In english, rich people spend less of their total income than poor people. But the government has a propensity to consume of 100% And even higher. So by having tariffs you will lower the value of wages relative to consumer goods. But you may also create conditions which allow you to expand the production of public goods. It is not immediately obvious that the effect has to be a reduction in total demand. There might be a reduction in total demand during the transition phase between higher private consumption versus higher public consumption. But even that might be mitigated by income effects of higher public consumption.
always a pleasure to hear Michael Pettis. intuitively i always felt something was off with the theory. and oh my! i have finally figured out where it's faulty. taxing capital inflows would be good for America? investment in a new airport in China decreases Chinese consumption? note that China imports drop when Russian oil is bought on the low-low. it's ironic to talk of false growth in China versus the West. also, you can never have too many small banks. regulations force banks to grow, but reality is the village banker will always do a better job for society than the guy at big Bear Stearns.
I think when you work in China, you take great care of what you say. There will be no "run" on banks, because such things are not allowed. There are many reports of banks simply refusing to make withdrawals, resulting in civil protests which are quickly dispersed.
Great video. Love how he steered clear of politics. I'd love to know his thoughts on what developed countries with low productivity can do to increase productivity. Can they step away from free trade and use industrial policy create comparative advantage?
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
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Unemployment is an odd concept in an economy where for so many folks it’s necessary to work multiple jobs just to get by. Loose one and you’re counted as employed but suddenly don’t have enough money to live.
The economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
@SarahJeffy
I’ll hold onto your money for you.
Saying you need to work multiple jobs is non sense ... make better choices in life and if you didn't? Decisions have consequences...
@@Antiquated-EtherThat's bullshit on a stick. Not everyone is born with equal opportunities, and the skew is getting larger every day. For some people, the amount of effort required to get a decent living is truly enormous. For others, it is given at birth, no effort required. That is the reality of life. Pretending that it is all up to individual effort is, kindly out, naive. I have other, not so kind words, for it.
What politicians and economists should really take away from this video is this: lack of industrial policy means you are subject to the industrial policy of another country.
It’s such a simple message that’s really not widely broadcast.
Actually regulations on and socialist policies in the west on industry results in the exposure to the freedoms of international companies / manufacturers / R&D shareholders
My take away is the four pillars of the economy are interacting and artificially boosting one (eg. investment) means you are draining another (household consumption).
In other words, don't F with US and the west. They can send your country back 30 decades because there are other options and other friendly nations around the world to partner with
But isn't what Reagen administration lauded for
@@jameslawrence2139 what choice do they have when they don't invent anything themselves? They will always be a few steps behind and at the mercy of another country.
Jack asks all the right questions from my favorite analyst on China. Shared this with all my friends. Keep up the great work Jack.
Yes keep coping with your other white friends all with superiority complexes. Your ego simply can't handle China's growth
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
Even with the right strategies and assets in place, investment returns can still vary between investors. It's important to recognize that experience is a key factor in achieving success. I came to understand this myself and sought the advice of a market analyst, which helped me grow my account to nearly a million. I wisely withdrew my profits just before the market correction and am now capitalizing on new buying opportunities.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
thank you for this tip , I must say Melissa, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
Pettis is a brilliant, and very underrated, economist.
Gotta love all these channels keep making whole videos of. CHINA DOWN FALL. Type shit while their economy has been doing nothing but growing, like last year, remember all those channels keep spamming those videos of china Economy collaps😂. Their gdp grew by 5,2% of 17,89 trillion, while Germany gdp shrunk by 0.3 I don't see them making 20 videos on that, Canada, grew by 1%, France grew by 0.8%. 🤷🤷. Why don't they make videos on that?
@@delanofernandes6471 Bcs the guy is a finance professor. These financial guys do not understand the real economy but only the financial aspect of it.
Yep, and you can measure how spot on he is by the increasing number of pro-Chinese bots and "little pinks" that he attracts!
BTW, another part of the 'reluctance' to increase household spending is the fear that rising capitalist-style consumption might also threaten the hold of the CCP... a la "Tiannamen Square".
@@delanofernandes6471cuz china is america's competitor and threat while the others are not. i suspect many of those videos are sponsored by the government.
Well, he made it sound like this is a Chinese mistake. But by design they intended to subsidize manufacturing. And by keeping currency low they intend to export employment to developing world since they don't have high-tech employment to begin with. Now it's difficult for the west to picture a global south living like developed countries with high tech equipment, but the Chinese sees it. The idea to trade fish for solar panels, EV, and AI chips.
Michael Pettis is the Econ Professor I never had. He's a walking and talking course on the real world Macroeconomics. Fantastic episode.
I enjoy listen to Prof. P. He effortlessly makes his complicated ideas and theories easy for the most people to understand.
One of the 5 men who "understands money" according to Hugh Hendry.
Who are the other 3?
@@davidbranch2020in my opinion one of them is Michael Howell. He comes with a very different - yet complementary - perspective to the one of Michael Pettis.
Michael Howell sees, with quite compelling arguments, the economy as driven by liquidity cycles and then liquidity as well driven by and driving economic cycles.
hugh doesn't understand money. anyone remember him telling everyone to buy TLT leaps?
@@davidbranch2020 Stanley Druckenmiller is one.
@@taco7043 He said long term. But yeah, that hasn't worked.
I'm not sure Hugh Hendry claims to be one of the 5 though.
Great show! Michael Pettis helps me understand the collective mind of the Globalists. Thank you!
Great interview. Maybe I understood about 30 to 40% of Michael’s theory. Sounds like all roads lead back to transferring wealth to households and requiring more consumption. Unless countries are willing to accept a 1930’s style deleveraging event.
My portfolio’s been all over the place since the attempt on the presidential candidate. Combine that with China’s economic crisis, and it feels like everything is falling apart.
Yeah, it’s insane. Between that and the China economy crisis, I don’t know how anyone feels safe about their investments.
No kidding. The market is so volatile right now. I'm getting really anxious about my funds.
I can relate! That's exactly why I made the choice to protect my investments with an expert like Desiree Ruth Hoffman. She's truly made a huge difference in my financial strategy.
Oh, I’ve heard that name a few times now. The most recent was in an interview I watched. Guess I’ll be clearing my schedule to search the internet for her contact.
I've also observed her name gaining prominence across various platforms, highlighting her exceptional ability to navigate through these challenging times.
This video will teach you more about global trade than any other video out there. Pettis is brilliant.
I agree. And macroeconomics. Pettis is the most clear sighted economist I've heard.
Despite all of the controls, economists are the last group of people still able to express their views. It's cool that people of the caliber of Pettis are still allowed in universities in Beijing, even though they don't do what he opines about due to political reasons.
Will the transfer of wealth move from industry to households? Which sector is going to take the brunt of the rebalancing of debt from property? Will some freedom be given back to the private sector to boost confidence? Will foreign inflows come back up? How much control will they give up as the industry's powers need to give up some of it to help households and the service sector? Will the social safety net increase as the population ages?
The fact that Pettis continues to work and live in China is a vote of confidence
@@davidlai399 their legitimacy to rule is based on the economy. You spun it the opposite way. It’s more the fact that they need people like him to come up with solutions.
@@zz3410 It goes both ways. Just because he is needed by the system doesn’t mean he has to stay there, and if the system hasn’t been listening to his advice, he would probably have left long ago. In general the Chinese government operates under a constant sense of crisis, perhaps being aware history and dynastic cycles, and thus is more open minded to feedback than assumed.
@@davidlai399 they’ve made slow, gradual adjustments but of course, political reasons prevent structural changes. Will it be the first country to escape the middle income trap with their structure? Time will tell.
It's not private industry that controls most of wealth in China, it's the Party which dominates the national economic landscape. So, no chance that a rebalancing of national wealth back to individuals could happen because it would mean a transfer of power as well.
Dr. Pettis approaches economics like physical chemistry ❤
This has got to be the greatest video on macro economics I’ve ever seen.
Hahah, laughable…it was not macroeconomic, it's politics
@@andyy9261 You clearly didn't watch the video. Even when the host tried to bring politics into the discussion, the guest steered away from it.
@@alexmacchalatte You noticed that, the host tried a lot to brought the politics into the chat, how can the speaker to manage to speak out his theoretical point purely regarding macroeconomics. You can see all his saying was under the atmosphere of geopolitics.
If You are saying he made some points from the American perspective under the current geopolitical atmosphere. I'm ok for that.
If you are saying he made good points purely from the economics perspective, you are literally lying.
@@andyy9261 My point is that his explanation on how the manipulation of macroeconomic levers between countries affects others and how to balance them out was the best I've ever seen. And while the economist spoke somewhat from an American perspective, his recommendations on how to balance the effects of China's economic policy towards the US was focused solely on economic measures to establish a more "Fair Trade" policy than the naive approach of the past. He also discussed the same about Japan's economic policy. He even provides recommendations on how China could ease its economic challenges. He did not, however, delve into measures using other aspects of national power such as diplomatic, information or military.
@@andyy9261when the temptation was to use US vs China to explain his points, he deferred to US vs Japan for analytical distance and objective clarity.
Brilliant. Love listening to Pettis.
Maybe an even better way of saying economic ideas are good/bad depending on the conditions, is to say "everything is a tradeoff"!
Tremendous lecture. Enlightening sober explanations when compared to the alarmist and biased views one hears from different quarters.
Hell yeah, glad to see Michael back on the show. There's no one I trust more to give us the scoop and predictions on China.
This video is very educational and answered many questions in my head for a years!! Thanks to Michael!
This is probably the best economics talk I’ve heard! Normally I get frustrated by the dogma of economists, but the professor’s nuanced view of the world economy was both eye opening and refreshing! thank you for this interview
This is one of the best videos I've ever seen on the Chinese economies and I keep coming back to it and sharing it with people who need an overview.
This guy is a no nonsense truth teller. Thanks for having him on.
I learned nothing from this
Ppl literally say Chinese economy collapses this year, and yet it never does 😢. Chinese stock mkt continues to suck, but not any more than usual
Chinese stock market, unlike the US, is really not indicative of their economy.
Lol America will collapse before China. These Western "analysts" are just salty they're not making money in China's stock market
Watch the YT videos on the title below .China don't care about the stock market-
How China Dominates the Global Export Business | Louis Gave
Markets: China isn't 'following the script' of the West, investment firm says
Thé best lecture on economics that I’ve ever had…
Pettis the G O A T. Rock star!
@@labanyu -- How? I followed him for over a decade. He has been right for the last decade. Good try WuMao.
@@kennethli8 “If president Xi pulls off 3-4% growth in his 10 years in office, we should truly be astonished.”
Is he twice as astonished?
@@kennethli8 “If president Xi pulls off 3-4% growth in his 10 years in office, we should truly be astonished”… so Is he twice as astonished?
More than ten years ago, I enrolled in a university course taught by him that covered complex macroeconomic topics. It was an exceptionally idea-provoking course and remains the best I have ever taken.
As an entrepreneur i always find that Chinese economy is always wrongly read by Western analysts. Chinese leaders don't think of economy in its purest form but also based on cultural and philosophical aspect.
its backpedaling because communism is a disaster. you’ll see it everywhere in china, “oh its because of unrelated move of jupiter influencing fishing tides” or some nonsense.
Exactly. The culture is if your business is too successful you get arrested. The culture is if you evaluate economic sectors and individual firms within those sectors for their credit worthiness and expansion plans your a consulting firm gets shut down. It's a culture all right. It's just not a capitalist culture and if you have some capitalist income you'd be kind of nutty to invest in it.
China‘s economic model: mercantilism + capitalism with Chinese (cultural) characteristics = downfall with Chinese characteristics
Yes, the CCP thinks of the economy in a more practical but not particularly philosophical sense, the economy is to serve the interest of the Party, not of the nation, and certainly not individuals. In a way, that's cultural as well because that had been the case for the past 2000 years.
@@my_pronoun_is_your_excellency they dont give a crap about it
I watched the previous interview and was very happy there was a sequel. Such a great interview to learn macro economics and the dance between economies of the US , China, and the rest of the world
Very enlightening revelation of today global economic problems and challenges. I personally feel that the current GDP growth of China is just right. Firstly they have to arrest the run away housing industry before it is too late. Secondly they have to upscale their manufacturing industries from low tech industries to high tech industries to enable industrial restructuring to ensure sustainable future growth.
This industrial restructuring should auger well for other developing countries in the sense that more labour intensive industries will leave China to these countries. However moving up to the value chain in whichever industrial activities will definitely impact negatively on the western world like US.
Agree. If it were still 8%+ I'd be worried for China. I think they could maintain that percentage for a couple of years but it's time to transform China's economy into a more advanced one. 5% sounds like a good number, don't want it lower or higher
I think that Pettis is referring to emerging industries, sometimes referred to as embryonic industries. They definitely need projection until they are mature enough to compete. But protection is recommended when industries can’t compete cost-wise. If Chinese goods are too cheap, other countries have no choice but to implement tariffs.
Gotta love all these channels keep making whole videos of. CHINA DOWN FALL. Type shit while their economy has been doing nothing but growing, like last year, remember all those channels keep spamming those videos of china Economy collaps😂. Their gdp grew by 5,2% of 17,89 trillion, while Germany gdp shrunk by 0.3 I don't see them making 20 videos on that, Canada, grew by 1%, France grew by 0.8%. 🤷🤷. Why don't they make videos on that?
Let's say their economy only has 1% growth, that's still like 8 times more than Canada 1%. 1% of 17,89 trillion is more than 1% of 2 trillion. Yet china is doing bad I guess
No choice? How about improve their processes, innovate on the cost side, implement better economic policies, move into other areas where they CAN compete.
@@delanofernandes6471stop copy & pasting the long-debunked fake CCP stats in every thread, you lame wumao
Love Michael Pettis
So good, so clear! 5 stars
I originally was stunned when I first heard Mr Pettis explain global trade and China-trade. The world is one big balance sheet/income statement!
The problem with increasing consumption is that in order for China to do this they have to import certain raw materials and other inputs, and in order to pay for that, they have to keep up exports. I am not saying that they have to grow exports or that, exports can't diminish a little bit and consumption growing despite this, but I am saying that they can't get into massive trade wars with their biggest trading partners and just grow consumption by handing out money= simple solution. What they will get in that case is massive inflation.
Jesus christ!! I had to listen to this 3 times..at 1.5x then at normal speed...The students of this professor will be trail blazers...such lucky Fellows!!
Very informative interview and guest!❤
2 years ago they announced to increase local consumption..... but as you mention, exports must go down, and china is a net exporter.
So China has tried to boost domestic consumption for the last years but failed so far?
They also have to import most of their needs.
They're still living in a somber mood for losing their entire savings in the collapse of Evergrande. Many experts now said they could take over 20 million units half finished / unfinished properties for a cheap deal of a century.
At 19:30 Pettis makes a prediction that’s apparently coming true. Now please tell me which stocks to buy Michael!😊
Way better speaker than any China hawks. Chinese government can easily start raising salary standards. It is not going to change the cost that much.
Wow. Thank you. It is so deep. Economics 501. Much of this conversation has not been written in the textbooks yet. 🙏
Retired at 50 few years ago, $1m in the bank. More time with my wife. 3-5 trips to the gym each week that I couldn’t do while working. Way less stress. More time for hobbies. Cycled 5,000 miles my 1st year of retirement. Joined a golf league that work travel had prevented. Actually have seen our net worth INCREASE nearly each year in retirement, thanks to no debt and years of dedicated investing with my FA joanna claire who made me a million after giving her a sum of one hundred and eighty thousand to start. Now i'm able to help my elderly mom more. Way more time spent outdoors with my family. Life is good!
The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received $3900. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills
You trade with joanna claire too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family
I’m new at this, how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first until I decided to try. It’s huge returns is awesome! I can’t say much.
she's mostly on Telegrams, with the user name.
37:00 EXACTLY. A very important point for people to understand.
I LOVED you work of "trade wars are class wars"!!!!!
Top shelf. Really top shelf!
Great Video! Thank you
Is the Professor suggesting the "classical western debt based driven growth" is superior and problem free ???
👌👌👌👏👏👏
He wants China follow American's consumption or credit cards economic model.
This has to be the most conservative and truthful economic post.
What has not been discussed is most manufacturers are from America produce product in China and sell it back to America. Another issue is that America control items which they want to sell China wants..
1:17:40. Protests were reported outside some of those smaller Chinese banks that went under. Non-guaranteed deposits were deemed “illegal” and therefore ineligible for payouts.
*Your explanations are clear and straight forward It's always a honor to have you here as a mentor, I appreciate you for the time being spent to educate us financially. Regardless of how bad it gets the economy, I still makeover $28K every single week. I truly value Laura, and her helpful guides*
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional.
I know Laura, she has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in the UK as she has been really helpful and changed lots of lives.
You're right! The very first time I tried, I invested $2000 and after a week, I received $8,400. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Interesting! But I'm new here. How can I get to this person's guidelines??
SHE IS ON TELEGRAMs
Well done, finally some deep thought on these issues.
I've watched this 4 times and I learn something new every time 😂. I watched the last one 9 times
Best single video on RUclips.Amazing quality.
I am glad to hear more economists talking about the need for capital controls. In this age of populism, it just might be possible to get them enacted.
Technically, Pettis is an accountant which makes all the difference, he does not allow himself the delusions that most economists entertain (except some of the Austrians).
Why not return the money, paid by homebuyers, who didn't get any homes in return because of the real estate collapse? And confiscate the properties of the real estate company CEOs, who earned undeserved millions ?
I assume you’re referring to housing in China, it the problem is the same generally: where does the money come from to clear the homebuyer’s left holding the bag? At the moment there is a slow running liquidation and government assumption of real-estate assets prioritizing making first time home buyers whole and then other homebuyers.
But there’s a dilemma, to raise capital to pay back homebuyers you need to either supply it from tax payers via government accounts or sell some of the assets of these companies (or presumably deliver the promised asset). Government accounts to a large degree relied on the property sector which as it collapses presents a fiscal challenge to covering existing obligations let alone making homebuyers whole. If you sell the excess housing stock to raise capital to pay people back you further depress value by flooding the market when the bubble is already deflating. Finishing construction also acts as a jobs program and seems to be favored overall but it takes time. In principle, you could also wait for the market to bottom out and then have people sell the large excess of investment housing to those waiting for housing. The problem there is geographical allocation doesn’t seem to reflect the market demand.
ETA: Professor Pettis walks through the timing argument and reallocation around the 1:25 minute mark. He doesn’t address the heterogeneity of the Chinese housing supply but he spells put much more clearly how this is basically a transfer from those with more assets to those with fewer in such a way that it’s likely better for the economy overall at the cost of more immediate pain.
Every single video with Pettis is a 💎💎💎
The US led higher interest rates is a major cause but not many mentioned. Why? Exchange rate of many countries like S Korea Japan Malaysia EU had weak currencies reducing the purchasing power. Specially the countries who holds a lots of US bond and US dollar reserves get effected more.
Korean EU and Japanese import had dropped a lot. Interest rate is high and properties sales also drops in general.
I'd suggest taxing money leaving is probably more effective than trying to tax money as it enters. Neither will be easy and both will create imbalances (exactly as the original subsidy created the trade imbalance), but a rapid unrestricted sell-off and export of currency would be immediately self destructive.However, a restricted/taxed sell-off and export would still slow external investment, but only incrementally rather than in total.
Love me some Michael Pettis. I’ve read several of his books and they are fascinating!
Great insights from Pettis as usual!
Amazing, fantastic interview. always been a fan of Michael Pettis, logical reasoning and very well explained. Just fantastic, keep up the great work
Really appreciate you having him back on.
Invest in yourself and a network of people with self sufficient capabilities, when the entire ponzi collapses come together to take over the market place.
Or....create new markets in emerging economies away from north Atlantic economies...
Excellent guest.
It is absurd to blame China export as exporting unemployment to other countries. How about your export? Are they the same in nature?
Great episode. Pettis is awesome!!
It is not wealth transfers from households to manufacturing, Chinese households’ savings increased huge. It’s the lack of social security: kids’ education, medical, retirement leads to reluctant spending, and wealth shrink due to property prices decline
great interview and much more insights on China's current issue - also export of employment and deficit opens a new perspective to me
This is fantastic! Thank you ❤
Best guest to date.
Fantastic speaker. Thank you
Before any Academic can hold a position in advising the government about any economic policies, they should be required to travel, in an RV, ( no planes nor limo's) across the Country, stopping in "Small Towns" all along the way. Lacking contact with the working man's reality, those people will continue to make foolish decisions. We did this 15 years ago - traveling from Phoenix,AZ. to the South West Coast of Florida. An eye opener we will never forget. Walmarts, Home Depo's, Costco's, drive up gas & meals to go had pulled all the $$ from former Small Entrepreneurs . Store after store either boarded over or replaced with ' Potters ville. So sad to see - it broke our hearts. Thank you Mr. Kissinger.
Labour got too powerful, complacent and corrupt for their own good in the 70s. No one could afford anything during hyperinflation environment. Taiwanese, Japanese, and subsequently, Chinese goods brought inflation under control.
Most insightful macro seminar I’ve seen this month ❤
1:13:04 "you can't export a building or a bridge..." Isn't that what BRI is?
fair point. unlike Michael Pettis (the guest) I (Jack Farley, the host) am not an expert but I view BRI as exporting capital as well as exporting some bridge materials, most of which I imagine has to be assembled/built in the local country (not China)
@@BlockworksHQ as far as I know, all BRI projects are exclusively contracted to Chinese construction firms using imported Chinese labor and imported Chinese steel. China expects BRI loans to be paid back, most likely in the form of mineral rights or leased/ceded territory ala British Hong Kong.
Local governments in China have asset, but the declining value of those asset prevent them from selling them, ergo selling them exposes their bankruptcy
Great interview and explanation of the real world
China has no end game. It is CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING on its technology and manufacturing process. And it is expanding its export to the world and import from the world. China works with the world for a better tomorrow. That is not an end game. There is no "trap." There is no "domination." You work with China, you grow with prosperity, together. That is FORVER IMPROVEMENT.
Though kinda 'ironic' to be posting your 'truth' on RUclips... an app that's absolutely *_forbidden_* in China?! ;-p
@@LowenKM Chinese government asked Google to provide data and store data in China. Google refused and left with all its applications. Same like TikTok that US asked for the data in US and TikTok complied. China did not band Google apps. You don't even know why Google left ... you just make up your mind and think with your what is made up in your mind.
@@LowenKM But does that in conflict with what I said above? What is the big deal of China blocking YT and FB? They have been known to be the platforms of color revolutions. Here is the problem with people like you. When you cannot argument on content, you argue for "freedom or democracy or whatever".
@@LowenKMYes, they haven’t given up on their data sovereignty and have avoided being dominated by US intelligence-collecting big tech.
Instead of deflecting the topic to parrot clichés, What’s your counter-argument in response to the above comment?
Thanks for this discussion. I learned a lot.
Babe wake up!!!! new Michael Petttis podcast on Blockworks just droped!
I love your amazing logical calm perspective.
It's the basic international capital and money cycle... should be long understood by everyone. US$ being the dominant international currency, US has to run a trade deficit no matter what - it's that simple, by design. I will argue, when US no longer runs a trade deficit, US& will cease to be the dominant fiat currency. There's no right or wrong. Each country's role during a period of history is simply different. Also, debt denominated in local currency (US debt in US$, China debt in RMB) is not debt, it's simply a currency tax. It will never be paid back, it will be inflated out.
Great interview Jack, thanks for
Pettis is really a great ressource on economical knowledge
Amazing input from Pettis
michael pettis has academic charisma.
This is very insightful, I recommend this.
#MichaelPettis!!! BRILLIANT!!! Yup!!! BRILLIANT!!!
Wow! Pettis has a out of the box view.
I've been living in China for almost 15 years, and of course I always pay close attention to anything happens down here, and I have to say that Michael Pettis is one of the very few "real" expert out there about China and Chinese Economy. 99% of the other people you hear talking about China or they aren't in China and they only rely on second hands information or they are what we call over here "white monkey", a tool of propaganda. Pettis has unbiased views on the subject, besides being a great economist.
When America is competitive in manufacturing, tariffs is bad, when others are competitive, economics theories change, tariffs becomes good.
oh wow, very insightful and smart talk!
I have seen through various live streaming there are runs on a few banks in the far east. Or customers are limited to how much they can withdraw.
The state owns the banks, they arent going to run out of money.
@@acgrizzle7530 if you are limited to what you can withdraw, it’s the same result.
Great interview. Thanks guys
What a great interview..
In august 2024 China had a trade surplus of 91 billions, where the whole euro zone was 21 billions...
Point of order: when tariffs are used to fund government expenditure, the effect is a transfer from private consumption to public consumption. Private consumption is highly variable according to the marginal propensity to consume. In english, rich people spend less of their total income than poor people. But the government has a propensity to consume of 100% And even higher. So by having tariffs you will lower the value of wages relative to consumer goods. But you may also create conditions which allow you to expand the production of public goods. It is not immediately obvious that the effect has to be a reduction in total demand. There might be a reduction in total demand during the transition phase between higher private consumption versus higher public consumption. But even that might be mitigated by income effects of higher public consumption.
always a pleasure to hear Michael Pettis. intuitively i always felt something was off with the theory. and oh my! i have finally figured out where it's faulty. taxing capital inflows would be good for America? investment in a new airport in China decreases Chinese consumption? note that China imports drop when Russian oil is bought on the low-low. it's ironic to talk of false growth in China versus the West. also, you can never have too many small banks. regulations force banks to grow, but reality is the village banker will always do a better job for society than the guy at big Bear Stearns.
I think when you work in China, you take great care of what you say. There will be no "run" on banks, because such things are not allowed. There are many reports of banks simply refusing to make withdrawals, resulting in civil protests which are quickly dispersed.
Situation of China is far better than Europe's
I like this guy I'm definitely going to check out his book
Great video. Love how he steered clear of politics.
I'd love to know his thoughts on what developed countries with low productivity can do to increase productivity.
Can they step away from free trade and use industrial policy create comparative advantage?