18:57 I love when the calculator shows up. I swear I learn more about probabilities with Seth than what I could have ever learned in my Statistics class back in highschool.
12:30 they were dead on board if no removal. 7/7 blocks stonecoil is 0 damage, Giant blocks the other sonecoil is 3 damage, last creature chumps lieutenant leaving your last creature for 3 damage. Total is 6.
Yeah. It's tough. I don't think I can make a functional Arena-budget deck every week. If you only have something like 10 rares to work with you're pretty limited in colors (since dual lands are mostly rare). Ideally decks will be cheap everywhere, but at this point I've mostly come to grips that not every Budget Magic episode will be super budget friendly in Arena terms. The economy on Arena just isn't set up to support Budget Magic :(
Yea this how it be on arena. You can built the most expensive decks for as much as the cheap decks, but that means that the cheap decks "cost" as much as the most expensive decks
Seth, you should make some sort of Abzan 12 scale deck in pioneer with Conclave Mentor, Hardened Scales, and Winding Constrictor. It would be sooo sweet! Edit : I feel like scooze should be in main or board of at least non-budget builds.
I love it Seth. I'm playing a very similar deck, but I'm running 4 inscription of abundance main deck because it's so versatile, in it offers life gain, removal and of course, +1 counters. Ty as always
I love GW counters, I built one pre rotation but it seems a ton better after zendikar. Scavenging ooze is an extremely good card to have at least in the sideboard, and running a basri ket or 2 maindeck is super useful as well for sustaining pressure through removal.
For a non-budget version of this deck, consider Winota. The red splash is almost free (8 pathways and a mountain to go with fabled passages), the enablers are there as are the payoffs in basri's lieutenant and, to lesser extent, luminarch aspirant
Really wish there was a WC exchange for arena. The rare drop rate just feels frustrating, more often than not. But great games, Seth and I appreciate the constant content from y'all!
I have a list like this for Gladiator (community-made arena singleton format). it's obviously not as consistent cause of the singleton nature but I really enjoy the gameplay of this style of deck. great vid!
seth, to your question about it being a tier deck in standard, I believe it is. I'm rank #14 mythic with a non-budget version of this deck, and it doesn't really have any bad matchups in the current meta.
I wish Saff wouldn't concede the mana screw game until he drew a land, just to see how crazy the odds really were. Imagine 2 lands out of twenty something draws
Yo Seth, I have a hypergeometric calculation question: You calculated the odds that you would draw 2 lands in the top 18 cards, but since your opener had 2 lands, isn't it more valid to calculate the probability of drawing 0 lands in the top 11 cards? Because you can sort of control the number of lands in your opening hand but you cannot control your draws. It should also be noted that it's technically the top 12 cards because you also scried a nonland to the bottom. It's basically once every 1890 games.
Yep, you're right. This is called bayesian inference: if you have some prior info it is correct to calculate the probability of something happening GIVEN that you already know the given info. He kept the hand knowing he had two lands, so I'd argue it's correct to do as you said
I wonder what a full power version would look like. Basri ket and scavenging ooze seem like 2 obvious upgrades. Historic probably has a monster deck with this archetype
Hey, Seth, what do you think about putting Gnarlid Colony in the place of the spiders? You seemed like you always sideboarded them out a lot and I think Colony can add some evasion to close out the games even faster!
I was trying just a minute ago trying to build mono green counters in standard lol
4 года назад
This makes me miss the Simic Merfolk deck. It was just like this, but it had more tempo to it. It was fun, but ultimately, the Mono Blue deck at the time offered more protection, and there was something special about beating the crap out of the opponent with a singular 1/1
so, it appears that arena's "smooth shuffling" algorithm doesn't count MDFC's as lands and therefore decks with these cards substituting for lands will typically draw fewer lands than those without. This also affects their initial hand selection in that the decks average "land spell mix" will favor spells leading to lower land counts in initial hands.
Is it possible to have a budget series for Arena vs budget paper? You’ve done this before with only a few rares but with the uptick on arena vs. paper because of COVID, there should be more budget videos for low rare decks
I like it. I’m surprised how well it does without card draw. For your next brew please try something with Jace Mirror Mage. He’s gotta be good somewhere?!?
I have been streaming a deck very similar put in winota 1 embercleave set of bonecrushers wifs a bit but usually the damage is so high from the other treats its gg when it hits basri's
If greedy Yorian piles become the Tier 1 then I can see go wide aggro like this being really good. Especially if Yorian decks are relying on white removal like Shatter the Sky ahead of Extinction Event because this seems very sweeper resilient.
The only other change for non-budget that I think might be worth it is replacing Thrashing Brontodon in the sideboard with Gemrazer. I mean, it's cheaper to use Gemrazer as artifact/enchantment removal (1GG to mutate vs. 1GG to cast and 1 to sacrifice), plus it synergizes really well with +1/+1 counter creatures, you put it on a Wildwood Scourge and it gets +4/+4 and trample. And *maybe* some scavenging oozes as graveyard hate that synergizes nicely with the rest of the deck.
A theory on seemingly too frequent low land games - maybe Arena doesn't count the flip lands as "lands" for the purpose of its smoothing algorithm and instead is treating your deck like a 16 land deck...
@seth: I played with a similar deck on arena and paper. In paper I get VERY FEW TIMES mana screwed, on Arena is like one match every 2 (50% times mana screwed).. Dunno why. I have 26 lands
It doesn't do anything against tier 1 deck altough, Bonecrusher giant is a real problem for that deck. Other midrange aggro decks that play 4 Skyclave Apparition also crush the deck. Selesnya Yorion must run over the deck.
I thought is was going to be a Green White counter spell deck. One of my problems with magic is that they use the word counter for 2 totally different things
Honestly this shows a lot of what is wrong with Arena. The frequent once a thousand mana death because of the shuffler ; the opponent conceding on turn two...
Why not run Renata? She combos with Basri’s Lieutenant to make 3/3’s every time one of the 3/3’s die. And if you have two lieutenants then every 3/3 dying creates 2 3/3’s
This is not a 24 land deck per say. It’s a 20 land deck with 4 spells that are also lands. Arena hates that algorithm and that is why you got mana screwed so many times
It's unfortunate the amount of rares this needs... GW counters was a deck i was thinking of playing, but I may just have to do it in paper once paper standard is possible...
If I may, I would point out a quick spelling error? Wean is what you meant, which refers to getting a child off of milk onto solid food. Ween is old English for think or suppose. That’s all. Carry on with your day, this wasn’t important, just something I like to see correct
Not enough removal.. Here is my version if anyone cares : Deck 4 Iridescent Hornbeetle 8 Forest 4 Basri Ket 8 Plains 4 Luminarch Aspirant 4 Swarm Shambler 4 Inscription of Abundance 2 The Great Henge 4 Wildwood Scourge 4 Broken Wings 4 Banishing Light 2 Elspeth Conquers Death 4 Temple of Plenty 4 Branchloft Pathway
Am I literally the only person in the world that doesn't think spider in the main deck JUST for the rogues matchup is worth it? like I would understand if rogues was the best deck in the format, but I almost never play against it.
Every deck should have an escape card. Even if your opponent isn't playing mill you are losing grave value for not playing an escape card. The spider is just the best card for the format anyway and it also synergizes with the +1+1 counter theme. 1 mana 1/2 isn't bad in this deck you can curve out with it and play an aspirant turn2 and give it some counters to make it a threat and attack as early as turn2 so your opponent has to kill it and you escape it back. The graveyard gets full by playing magic. This concept shouldn't be hard to understand
that isn't true. conclave mentor reads "If one or more +1/+1 counters would be put on a creature you control, that many plus one +1/+1 counters are put on that creature instead." When you cast a 0 mana stonecoil serpent (or a 1 mana Hydra), there are no counters being placed on the serpent, so it is essentially the same as playing any creature that doesn't enter with counters on it.
Ive been laddering from gold to platinium 1 wih a mono green counters, it just smashes almost every deck (it removes the mana color screw and makes it more consistent).
There is no point to play a monogreen counter deck, Monogreen aggro and midrange not based on counter are better archetypes. Selesnya counter is the best counter archetype, Luminarch Aspirant, Conclave mentor and Basri lieutenant are the best card for the counter strategy... You're only plat 1 btw, you can hit plat 1 with any tier 3/4 deck, i hit Mythic with Selesnya indestructible and this is not a tier 1 deck. If your deck was that good, it would see play in tournament and would get attentions from pro players but it doesn't, because it's not a good deck that "smashes almost every deck" in reality.
The game where you only hit two lands was Arena wanting you to lose. There is more and more mounting evidence that arena is stacked in favor of a 50% win rate for every deck. To try to help keep people from believing that there is a best deck in standard the problem is it doesn't work I just annoy people
![BLACK BAG - Official Trailer [HD] - Only in Theaters March 14](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Du0Xp8WX_7I/mqdefault.jpg)
Starting my morning with Saff, this is going to be a good day :)
Drinking game: take a shot every time Seth messes up with math
Aren’t you supposed to survive a drinking game?
Don't do it. You'll die!
I can't play that game. I want to LIVE.
I treid it..... as a sesaond alcoholic instrongly advise agaisnt it.
@@MTGGoldfish You know that's not true, we've gone drinking together ;) -Tawnos
18:57 I love when the calculator shows up. I swear I learn more about probabilities with Seth than what I could have ever learned in my Statistics class back in highschool.
It seems that in arena that these "one in a couple thousand" hands happen every 10 games.
12:30 they were dead on board if no removal. 7/7 blocks stonecoil is 0 damage, Giant blocks the other sonecoil is 3 damage, last creature chumps lieutenant leaving your last creature for 3 damage. Total is 6.
Seth was doing what he often does and mixing up power and toughness and thinking the giant soaked up 4. I am 99% sure Seth is dyslexic.
@@zotha That could also explain his difficulty with words, and proper pronunciation.
One of my Favorite arquetype. Great list as always Seth.
Thanks!
Another Budget Magic where paper and Arena disagree strongly on the definition of 'Budget'
Yeah. It's tough. I don't think I can make a functional Arena-budget deck every week. If you only have something like 10 rares to work with you're pretty limited in colors (since dual lands are mostly rare). Ideally decks will be cheap everywhere, but at this point I've mostly come to grips that not every Budget Magic episode will be super budget friendly in Arena terms. The economy on Arena just isn't set up to support Budget Magic :(
@@MTGGoldfish for sure! Thanks for still showing us some super cool Standard decks, even if they might not be budget on Arena.
MTGO also has it for dirt cheap. I built it a week ago and i bought into it in MTGO for 25 tix
Yea this how it be on arena. You can built the most expensive decks for as much as the cheap decks, but that means that the cheap decks "cost" as much as the most expensive decks
I half suspect that wizards has mostly stopped printing good uncommons precisely because of arena
Seth, you should make some sort of Abzan 12 scale deck in pioneer with Conclave Mentor, Hardened Scales, and Winding Constrictor. It would be sooo sweet!
Edit : I feel like scooze should be in main or board of at least non-budget builds.
match 4 game 2 ending was hilarious. well done, SO.
I love it Seth. I'm playing a very similar deck, but I'm running 4 inscription of abundance main deck because it's so versatile, in it offers life gain, removal and of course, +1 counters. Ty as always
I love GW counters, I built one pre rotation but it seems a ton better after zendikar. Scavenging ooze is an extremely good card to have at least in the sideboard, and running a basri ket or 2 maindeck is super useful as well for sustaining pressure through removal.
The ozolith has gone up so much, wild to see it in budget magic
Match 4 was revenge for Seth dissing Kazandu Mammoth all of preview season 😂😂😂
Match 2 was against a deck by mono black magic.
For a non-budget version of this deck, consider Winota. The red splash is almost free (8 pathways and a mountain to go with fabled passages), the enablers are there as are the payoffs in basri's lieutenant and, to lesser extent, luminarch aspirant
Really wish there was a WC exchange for arena. The rare drop rate just feels frustrating, more often than not. But great games, Seth and I appreciate the constant content from y'all!
Abzan has some nice additions the shadowcat thing that draws you cards is good, and i really like the hagra constrictor
I have a list like this for Gladiator (community-made arena singleton format). it's obviously not as consistent cause of the singleton nature but I really enjoy the gameplay of this style of deck. great vid!
Sweet build. Standard has been really great! Got to play boros party and boros warriors.
seth, to your question about it being a tier deck in standard, I believe it is. I'm rank #14 mythic with a non-budget version of this deck, and it doesn't really have any bad matchups in the current meta.
A couple times out of a thousand. Unless you're on MTG Arena, then it's like 8 out of every 10 games.
I feel like the cat that gives trample to creatures with counters might work with this deck. Give it some reach.
Pridemalkin I think
You mean the Beast with Kicker or Pridemalkin?
Yeah, that’d make those Foulmire Knights a lot less annoying.
@@KebbieG both works great
I wish Saff wouldn't concede the mana screw game until he drew a land, just to see how crazy the odds really were. Imagine 2 lands out of twenty something draws
35:28 You know seth, you can attack the face for 12 here, not 4
match 6 game 2 was an insane comeback. wow.
Yo Seth, I have a hypergeometric calculation question:
You calculated the odds that you would draw 2 lands in the top 18 cards, but since your opener had 2 lands, isn't it more valid to calculate the probability of drawing 0 lands in the top 11 cards? Because you can sort of control the number of lands in your opening hand but you cannot control your draws. It should also be noted that it's technically the top 12 cards because you also scried a nonland to the bottom.
It's basically once every 1890 games.
Yep, you're right. This is called bayesian inference: if you have some prior info it is correct to calculate the probability of something happening GIVEN that you already know the given info. He kept the hand knowing he had two lands, so I'd argue it's correct to do as you said
@@SirDerpinmire Jay I smart cookie now
Also thanks for verifying
I'm gonna play this. I think I'm going to change a Harbinger for a Jegantha though. Having that extra body game 1 helps a lot.
So many fair matches!! Standard seems fine. Wow!
This is almost exactly one of the decks on the zendikar rising festival thing on arena this weekend.
This deck seems powerful !
I wonder what a full power version would look like. Basri ket and scavenging ooze seem like 2 obvious upgrades. Historic probably has a monster deck with this archetype
Dang it Seth I was just building this deck and now I’m gonna see it all over the ladder T-T
That black white aristo-wraths seemed like a cool if weird deck.
Hey, Seth, what do you think about putting Gnarlid Colony in the place of the spiders? You seemed like you always sideboarded them out a lot and I think Colony can add some evasion to close out the games even faster!
I was trying just a minute ago trying to build mono green counters in standard lol
This makes me miss the Simic Merfolk deck. It was just like this, but it had more tempo to it. It was fun, but ultimately, the Mono Blue deck at the time offered more protection, and there was something special about beating the crap out of the opponent with a singular 1/1
so, it appears that arena's "smooth shuffling" algorithm doesn't count MDFC's as lands and therefore decks with these cards substituting for lands will typically draw fewer lands than those without. This also affects their initial hand selection in that the decks average "land spell mix" will favor spells leading to lower land counts in initial hands.
hand smoothing is only applied in best of one.
Is it possible to have a budget series for Arena vs budget paper? You’ve done this before with only a few rares but with the uptick on arena vs. paper because of COVID, there should be more budget videos for low rare decks
Deck is sweet. Is there a historic version?
I like it. I’m surprised how well it does without card draw. For your next brew please try something with Jace Mirror Mage. He’s gotta be good somewhere?!?
I have been streaming a deck very similar put in winota 1 embercleave set of bonecrushers wifs a bit but usually the damage is so high from the other treats its gg when it hits basri's
Seth: "don't know what opponents payoff is."
Also Seth: *plays same pay off one week later.
Plants ftw. Awesome 5 color brew Seth!!!
There’s a theros card that at beginning of the upkeep gives all creatures you control a +1/+1
I would be curious to see how you would upgrade this deck when you aren't worried about budget.
Seth with the boognish shirt! My dude
I've been trying to make this deck work in my collection but I just don't have the wildcards.
So we need a spin it to win it montage merch and a hypergeometric calculator merch
Really really surprised at the lack of mained abundance tbh
Turntimber Symbiosis is also a great inclusion on the non budget version. Probably as a 4 of a kind.
If greedy Yorian piles become the Tier 1 then I can see go wide aggro like this being really good. Especially if Yorian decks are relying on white removal like Shatter the Sky ahead of Extinction Event because this seems very sweeper resilient.
Says maindeck spider change to 2 felidar retreat, then add 2 heroic
Sideboard 4 spiders 3 scavenging ooze, 2 great henge, artifact hates and 3 baloth?
Why are you not playing basri ket in this deck?
The only other change for non-budget that I think might be worth it is replacing Thrashing Brontodon in the sideboard with Gemrazer. I mean, it's cheaper to use Gemrazer as artifact/enchantment removal (1GG to mutate vs. 1GG to cast and 1 to sacrifice), plus it synergizes really well with +1/+1 counter creatures, you put it on a Wildwood Scourge and it gets +4/+4 and trample. And *maybe* some scavenging oozes as graveyard hate that synergizes nicely with the rest of the deck.
Do you think this might need a 25th land? 🤔
Extremly similar to my deck, i have two Basri Ket in the MB also, he is great.
Woow! Are going to try a non-budget version? 😁
A theory on seemingly too frequent low land games - maybe Arena doesn't count the flip lands as "lands" for the purpose of its smoothing algorithm and instead is treating your deck like a 16 land deck...
@seth: I played with a similar deck on arena and paper. In paper I get VERY FEW TIMES mana screwed, on Arena is like one match every 2 (50% times mana screwed).. Dunno why. I have 26 lands
The deck list is set to private.
Deliver Retreat, counters for landfall???
Yess, new budget
I only like heroic intervention but not sure what to take out,
The fight as ones. Why play a 2 Mana save 2 when you can play a 2 Mana save all?
This deck does insane stuff on just 2 lands if the opponent’s not interactive, holy heck
It doesn't do anything against tier 1 deck altough, Bonecrusher giant is a real problem for that deck. Other midrange aggro decks that play 4 Skyclave Apparition also crush the deck. Selesnya Yorion must run over the deck.
Magic Odds getting you every time.
Seth please try some deck that turns Ozolith into a creature as it already has counters on it.
Please like so Seth sees.
Been running a version of this since like day 3 . Veen very oppressive
I kind of feel bad for poor Chainweb Aracnir. In every match, the sideboarding amounted to taking Aracnir out and deciding what to replace it with...
I’ve been trying to build an abzan counters deck but haven’t spent the wildcards yet. Anyone having any success?
I thought is was going to be a Green White counter spell deck. One of my problems with magic is that they use the word counter for 2 totally different things
I was hoping this would have Felidar Retreat
Honestly this shows a lot of what is wrong with Arena.
The frequent once a thousand mana death because of the shuffler ; the opponent conceding on turn two...
This looks super fun in paper. But this is most definitely not budget on Arena. A large number of rares.
12:43 They were dead not at 1
Why not run Renata? She combos with Basri’s Lieutenant to make 3/3’s every time one of the 3/3’s die. And if you have two lieutenants then every 3/3 dying creates 2 3/3’s
I find Fertilid with Felidar Retreat fun. Also Basri's Lieutenant with Renata dumb. Lol
Changing my Arena handle to Thrashy Magee.
Second deck looks like Mono Black Magic's self wrath deck.
This is not a 24 land deck per say. It’s a 20 land deck with 4 spells that are also lands. Arena hates that algorithm and that is why you got mana screwed so many times
It's unfortunate the amount of rares this needs... GW counters was a deck i was thinking of playing, but I may just have to do it in paper once paper standard is possible...
OOOHHHH No!!!! I was playing GW Counter
Now everyone's know my plans T.T
hahahahahaha
So what you're saying is that you haven't been weened off of standard yet?
If I may, I would point out a quick spelling error?
Wean is what you meant, which refers to getting a child off of milk onto solid food.
Ween is old English for think or suppose.
That’s all. Carry on with your day, this wasn’t important, just something I like to see correct
@@theyonlycomeoutwhenitsquiet There is another meaning as well en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ween
He is wearing one of that band's t-shirts if I'm not mistaken. That's what I was going for anyway.
Please play more modern! A lot of us don’t play arena. Still appreciate the content regardless. Thank you Seth!
I saw it all over the place before you played it in platinum
At the end of match 1 you would've had exact damage because of trample
uh 35 rares is budget for arena?
seth: GW budget deck for standard!
my wildcard collection: :(
Not enough removal.. Here is my version if anyone cares :
Deck
4 Iridescent Hornbeetle
8 Forest
4 Basri Ket
8 Plains
4 Luminarch Aspirant
4 Swarm Shambler
4 Inscription of Abundance
2 The Great Henge
4 Wildwood Scourge
4 Broken Wings
4 Banishing Light
2 Elspeth Conquers Death
4 Temple of Plenty
4 Branchloft Pathway
i want to build this deck but i'm three rare wildcards short. LOL
Seth: 0.0002 is 1/5000. not a couple times in a thousand, It’s once in a couple thousand times.
Decimals are hard for some people.
Really, once the math gets beyond a thousand it’s not immediately intuitive to many people at all.
Am I literally the only person in the world that doesn't think spider in the main deck JUST for the rogues matchup is worth it? like I would understand if rogues was the best deck in the format, but I almost never play against it.
Every deck should have an escape card. Even if your opponent isn't playing mill you are losing grave value for not playing an escape card. The spider is just the best card for the format anyway and it also synergizes with the +1+1 counter theme. 1 mana 1/2 isn't bad in this deck you can curve out with it and play an aspirant turn2 and give it some counters to make it a threat and attack as early as turn2 so your opponent has to kill it and you escape it back.
The graveyard gets full by playing magic. This concept shouldn't be hard to understand
The Phylest of piles
seth, when you have a mentor on the field, you can cast a 0 mana stonecoil and get a 1/1. also buffs wildwood. you could have won the mana screw game
that isn't true. conclave mentor reads "If one or more +1/+1 counters would be put on a creature you control, that many plus one +1/+1 counters are put on that creature instead." When you cast a 0 mana stonecoil serpent (or a 1 mana Hydra), there are no counters being placed on the serpent, so it is essentially the same as playing any creature that doesn't enter with counters on it.
@@marowakcity3727 my bad, you're right. i was confusing a card from a previous scales deck
Holy shit 35 rares. Yep, no idea why this did well.
Victory's envoy...
Imagine Doubling Season in this deck.
I think playing hydra for 0 would've been good in game one
I'd drop the brontodons for oozes
Ive been laddering from gold to platinium 1 wih a mono green counters, it just smashes almost every deck (it removes the mana color screw and makes it more consistent).
There is no point to play a monogreen counter deck, Monogreen aggro and midrange not based on counter are better archetypes. Selesnya counter is the best counter archetype, Luminarch Aspirant, Conclave mentor and Basri lieutenant are the best card for the counter strategy...
You're only plat 1 btw, you can hit plat 1 with any tier 3/4 deck, i hit Mythic with Selesnya indestructible and this is not a tier 1 deck.
If your deck was that good, it would see play in tournament and would get attentions from pro players but it doesn't, because it's not a good deck that "smashes almost every deck" in reality.
The game where you only hit two lands was Arena wanting you to lose. There is more and more mounting evidence that arena is stacked in favor of a 50% win rate for every deck. To try to help keep people from believing that there is a best deck in standard the problem is it doesn't work I just annoy people
This deck needs fertilid is has counters and pulls out basics