Peter Zeihan - Deglobalization, Depopulation, & What It Means Going Forward
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- Опубликовано: 31 май 2022
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Today’s guest is Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical expert who may be the best person to talk to about the secular changes happening in the world today. His newest book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, will be released on June 14th (Link here: amzn.to/3NMaEGZ)
In today’s episode, Peter talks about the two main themes he sees in the world today: deglobalization and depopulation. He touches on what countries set up to thrive or suffer based on these trends. Peter shares why he’s extremely bearish on China and the implications of this on a possible invasion of Taiwan.
Then we get into the war between Russia and Ukraine and related issues within the energy markets, supply chains and food shortages, all of which he thinks aren’t going away any time soon.
As we wind down, we quickly touch on things like inflation, the shale revolution, nuclear energy, and why he thinks the head of the Russian Central Bank may be the smartest person in the world today.
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Oh boy I never miss a Peter interview.
Pretty jealous you got a book copy early 😤
ruclips.net/video/660baZoWnoQ/видео.html
ruclips.net/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/видео.html OHH Peter
You could play ten of Peter’s interviews together and they would almost track together.
Mr Faber, this is one of or the only interview of Peter Ziehan where you have gone so profound and broad into subject and topics in bringing the bigger picture to the front for everyone. really great dialogues.
Good to hear an up to date interview with Peter.
Very informative. Never heard this podcast. I really learned things I haven’t heard anyone talk about. Thanks!
Great interview! Both interviewer and interviewee are very good communicators. Can't get enough of Peter's knowledge, and Meb Faber was great at keeping the conversation going. I didn't want to switch to something else like I do with most interviewers.
Great interview. Haven’t heard this podcast before and discovered it looking for Peter videos, but love your questions and approach. Keep it up, you’ve got a new follower
once you start chasing PZ videos it's hard to stop!!
@@jameslawrence3666 I agree. Can’t wait for the new book.
@@jameslawrence3666 ruclips.net/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/видео.html OHH Peter
By far the most interesting thing for me when I hear this guy speak (of many interesting things) is his take on China. I feel like he is the ONLY person who's talking about Chinese decline. His argument makes sense logically but flies directly in the face of almost everyone else.
Man this is a peach. My copy of the book shipped tonite. Can't wait to power read through it!!
I love that you aren’t afraid of any topic meb
Peters knowledge is incredible on geopolitics.
Peter's analysis of the Chinese situation beautifully illustrates the strength of democracy where a variety of different points of view can make a contribution, as opposed to autocracy, where dissent ( read: information) is suppressed. USA take note !
As a black man I will look into his audio book ( that I already bought on audible ) to learn stuff and also see how Africa can play a role into that whole unfolding .
In the near term it is going to devastate them. Much of Africa grew their grain because of enormous fertilizer imports from Russia (massive exporter of fertilizer) or just imported the grain itself from Russia or Ukraine.
So you can see the problem. Severe and Widespread famine in Africa has been almost mathematically guaranteed probably no later the 4th quarter of this year, but definitely into 2023.
Whether they can industrialize after their population has been decreased by famine to a manageable number remains to be seen.
All of this has been gone over by Peter Zeihan.
Good plan! From what he's said so far he expects Europe to move toward acquiring all the oil and gas it can from African sources. I would expect a benefit to Africa from that in that the Western oil countries could accelerate their technical assistance on both finding more fields and producing more efficiently. In a word, exactly the opposite to what has happened with the Rus...
ruclips.net/video/660baZoWnoQ/видео.html
@@tulipalll While some African countries may experience famines, countries like Nigeria, South Africa can whether the storm and help their regional countries. Nigeria just opened large fertilizer plants across the country and started exporting to African markets and foreign countries like Brazil and USA.
While some African countries may experience famines, countries like Nigeria, South Africa can whether the storm and help their regional countries. Nigeria just opened large fertilizer plants across the country and started exporting to African markets and foreign countries like Brazil and USA.
When Peter talks about Argentina's policies about subsidizing necessities helping build a healthy demographic, I wonder how much jacked up housing costs have to do with everything. Ever since the 70s single income households for the most part couldn't ever buy their own homes and now today probably can't even afford rent if you have kids.
Policies around the world are designed to jack up house prices, Japan had a property bubble before their decline began, can't help but feel how much that has a role in demographics.
I great deal.
Yeap. Financialization of the advanced economies ruined the middle class. QE and low interest rates transferred wealth from the middle to the top.
Argentina has city suburbs where land and construction is inexpensive. Upper middle and middle class can have more children also because cities are safe and not ruined like US cities.
Great interview. Moderator was as good as his job as Peter Z is at his. Solid interview. Peter has his "rap" down tight. Good stuff.
Don't plants need all three types of nutrients - K, P, N - to grow effectively? You can't replace nitrogen fertilizer with phosphate fertilizer.
Perter is a great Storyteller. Great Storytellers have a Superior ability to Communicate and in Peters Case make technical information easier to understand. As the World goes to Hell in a Handbasket. Don't forget to drop a Dime in the Tip Jar. Storytellers need to Eat too
ruclips.net/video/660baZoWnoQ/видео.html
ruclips.net/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/видео.html OHH Peter
Excellent questions.... thanks so much.
I love hearing Peter speak and am excited to hear his upcoming book.
I feel like Jon Hamm gave up on acting and dedicated himself to geo-political issues.
Yes. I couldn't put my finger on who he sounded like oddly enough I just finished "Mad Men" but still couldn't figure it out lol.
Holy smokes!! Did he just say, in regards to the food shortages, that there is no way we get out of this without losing a billion people? Wow!
And he's totally correct unfortunately. My whole life I hoped for depopulation. Now that it's happening I'm incredibly sad at the thought of a billion people starving to death. Careful what we wish for...
His usual guess is 2 Billion.
When he said or I read originally in Ziehans books that the US in 1945 with Bretton Woods and reconstruction was only created to fight the Russians made so much sense and should be in our history books which of course would be adverse to everything taught about the 20 century
I found that I learned more outside of school than in it.
Holy shit at the end there. I'd expected Reuters or AP News or something, not freakin Al Jazeera. But i remember Polymatter made a video some time back though, of the unexpected insentives that actually makes Al Jazeera one of the most unbiased and accurate news sites (except on Qatar of course). So Zeihan isn't the only one who's saying this.
Guess I should be checking out Al Jazeera and France24 more
Have been watching some France24 on the war, seemed pretty good.
Reuters or AP? Really?
@@alanparsonsfan OMG Peter !!! ruclips.net/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/видео.html
Wow an Isaac Asimov reference! And smart conversation, I’m in.
Excellent show.
OMG Peter !!! ruclips.net/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/видео.html
Why are we not moving fast to get molten salt nuclear into production. Canada has Moltex a low cost plant going through homologation that will literally burn nuclear waste. USA has Elysium with similar functionality. Both are fast spectrum allowing the fuel to be fully burnt leaving a short life waste.
Elon Musk has said the biggest problem down the road is demographic- not enough working age people. Tesla is the most vertically integrated company since Ford 100 years ago. Looks like Elon saw this coming at least 10 years ago.
A lot of people saw it a lot longer than 10 years ago, especially with Japan held up as the example
Pretty sure most demographers saw it coming lol😂 all Elon had to do was read someone else's ideas and present them as his own which coincidentally is his whole career
7:00 Damn, maybe the Mayans were right about the world ending in 2012 after all...
Cannot find his books in kindle
Is that a custom intro song, or what? Would love the band/song name if possible
You guys are very smart. Thanks for a great interview. Please say nuclear the proper way. It is Nuc lear. It isn't nuc el lear, it isn't nucle lear. Why is this hard?
Zeihan intervlew >=======> SUBSCRIBED!
Bro same
He’s all facts no aggressive emotion which is so rare these days
Great interview. Unsure how New Zealand makes the top of Peter's list. Room for families to grow geographically? The country is a tiny island.
pineapple chipotle sweetpotatoes !! How did you know that ? did you get it from a resturant in Austin ? They use rum rasins dates and pecans. I dont use rum and in my version it is crasians, dates and pecans
The issue isn’t just urbanization. The issue is big government and big central banks distorting markets! Look at Japan. It’s expensive for young people that live there. If they’d allow recessions and depressions to happen you’d have more kids.
If the U.S. would allow massive recessions and assets being revalued you’d have more kids. If housing went down 50% a crap ton of millennials in the future would find more affordable houses. If you’re stuck with renting you’re probably going to have less kids. Ya sure if you have a farm kids are free labor. But if you can AFFORD a home you’d be more likely to have more kids. Keeping interest rates low for 20 years screwed a ton of workers and helped out investors.
Brilliantly comprehensive. The only thing missing is the ability to pronounce "nuclear" correctly.
Whoa…”there’s no way we get out of this with losing a billion people”. That’s quite a claim, sir!
Demographically, there is little difference between Australia and New Zealand. Both use education as a key means of migration, capturing young people at the point of entering the workforce. Australia has a 5 year, Costello induced, baby boom entering university now, and it was only this year (or 5 years ago, depending on the information source) that their birth rate dropped below the USA. So I would put Australia in the same category.
A small disclaimer, Al Jazeera is from Qatar. Overall, a great episode! Thank you.
Now we know why BG has bought up all the farm land!
Opportunity to reevaluate what our needs really are and stop wasting resources.
Peter Zeihan best comedy show on earth!
The Japaneses started talking 20 years ago the were running out of workers.
How many times does the interviewer ask the same question?
"how can we fix the thing that can't be fixed as it happened 25 years ago?"
Typical American arrogance that everything just needs money to be thrown at it.
American optimism?
Agree with a lot of things but I think the world's consumption is too much. We need to cut down on making crap stuff mainly from plastic.
We also need to stop expecting to endlessly expand our economy.
We have to manage with what we have.
Rightly feeding ourselves will be a priority soon.
I believe that the US generates sufficient spending to support US production, just not the rest of the world, so as we re-industrialize, and stop outsourcing to China, we should prosper.
Only if consumers have disposable income. If all their money is going into food, energy, and overpriced mortgage/rent the economy will face serious challenges. The way we've built America, the basic necessities of life for the average person require much more petroleum compared to other countries. Heating huge (by global standards), poorly insulated homes and driving SUVs across suburbia to do activities with a low economic value is a waste of scarce petroleum, petroleum that could sell for a lot of money on the global market. And if we think today's petroleum is too expensive, tomorrow's green energy will be just as bad, if not worse. We must get more energy-efficient, but in today's political climate, the responsibility for that will fall 100% on the consumer, and consumers will only learn the hard way.
The general countervailing argument is that rather than having a labor shortage, with the earth's population exploding in the last couple of decades that we will have a labor surplus for the foreseeable future and that automation will completely wipe out any supposed effects of a shortage of workers. There is nothing in recent history that shows that the world will put up with a billion people dying of starvation, given how bat-shit crazy we went over COVID. Population in places that seem incredibly desperate today like Somalia, Yemen, and Afghanistan continue to grow, and at best famines slow down the rates of growth. How that manages to happen, I don't know, but somehow it does.
Immigration will fuel the rise of the neo and finally the real nazis again. Not an easy thing to fix.
We only went batshit crazy over Covid in Western aligned countries with wealth to afford being batshit crazy.
Please, pronounce nu - clear correctly. Try this : “the new clear” physics.
If you're booking a guest, at least get the names of his books right. Preparation is key
OMG Peter !!! ruclips.net/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/видео.html
Will this collapse be similar to the Bronze Age, the failure of a system of systems?
No, because of technology.
Why, then, are housing prices in the U.S. increasing so dramatically? Young workers form households and need individual housing of some sort. Rents and real estate are increasing. Supply is increasing. Demand is increasing faster.
Lots of foreign money coming into the real estate market, which drives up prices. Much of that is on the coastal areas, though. Prices are going up in the midwest, but not nearly at the same level.
Like all of Peter's content. Small correction.... Al Jazeera is out of Qatar, not UAE. But yea, from an American's point of view, it's same diff ...lol!
Is there any chance that young people see better bargaining power and opportunity? The system (propagandistic and expensive education, expensive housing, etc) is very predatory towards its citizens.
Peter is a genius! I can't get enough of his talks, especially the information on China.
I'd hope that even IF China offered him 20,000,000, he'd say no.
ruclips.net/video/660baZoWnoQ/видео.html
China offer him money for what? To cure his stupidness?
Milton friedman’s pencil story Is my favorite way to explain capitalism to my generation and defeat the socialism argument with ease ❤️
Don’t know why he keeps crediting Russia as being the world’s largest potash producer. It is not. Canada is by far the largest producer and exporter in the world. It may not be able to supply and cover Russia’s shortfall to Russia’s customers but the countries that source Canada as a supplier will not suffer.
Good to know that Russia upset German Green Party lady !!!
If they are making clones, somebody should cloone Zeihan and send one version of him to every High School to teach Geoggraphy.
Yep. U.S. need Geography teachers 🙄
The intro is too long
min 04:16 there are two big threads...; min 16:42 russian orphans...; min 18:27 good demographics in the first world is problably a tie between New Zealand, France and the U.S.; min 18:43 developing world... Argentina; min 32:30 just-in-time to just-in-case, so smart!; min 48:12 NUCLEAR; min 53:44 France. ok; min 54:17 Argentina.; min 57:37 SOURCES: Al Jazeera and FRANCE24;
Where does Australia rank in the new world order? I suppose I will need to buy the book to find out? LOL.
They appear to be going back to penal colony status.
Educated population. Modest capital resources. Food. High tech. Indigenous energy and mineral resources. Some manufacturing, or manufacturing with assembly relationships. With Singapore the other Indo-Pacific free nation with a real civil society that controls a real military, plus some mobility and subs. Add in cultural trust with U.K., and more recent trust with U.S. Australia and the U.S. - Geez, they stood together when they were losing.
Australia will be fine. Envied by many.
Now I have this horrible vision of a zeroxed army of Chinese clones, force grown piecemeal, stitched together and educated in the vat, fed on some nutrient slush, and which the Pooh-Emperor throws en mass at the enemies of the state, himself
The zombie-bots would be fed a pork-based slush, programmed to worship Winnie the Flu and repeat mindlessly, "China is the center of the world, Chinese are superior to all races, all must kneel before the Chinese, China..." bla bla bla ad nauseum
No Red Rocks show yet Peter? WTF….
Workers should own and control the means of production. Wage slavery is slavery.
Interesting fella ,this Peter guy. I'd love to hear his thoughts on the advent of bots in replacing humans worldwide. The labor and population shortage will not be as problematic as he suggests. We've seen examples where automation and bots have successfully taken on the jobs in many occupations. Self driving semis, for one, can deliver goods and eliminate untold numbers of driver jobs.
Would huge tax cuts for families help with having more kids?
Stay calm, don't do anything stupid. Everything will be fine including inflation....
China will compensate labour with high-tech automation:) And what about the coming fossil fuel - population - food gap. Depopulation, if done right, will spare the world a lot of deaths when the fuel shortage starts kicking in. Less people also means more wealth and resources per capita:)
Great news on Chinese contracts !! Hope Ukraine gets weapons it needs soon.
OMG Peter !!! ruclips.net/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/видео.html
If population is a concern due to lack of births or costs, bring on the robots!
You are in so far over your head interviewing Peter Ziehan.. By the way, were you stoned when you did this interview?
As usual a fascinating discussion with Zeihan. I am watching this on 8 June and I do have to say, though, that some of his comments on the war in Ukraine haven't aged well. I think the Russians have performed better there than he thinks and the Ukrainians less well than he thinks and we have started to see support from western leaders begin to waver. Boris Johnson had to survive a no confidence vote, which he did in less-than overwhelming fashion and consequently he will probably be gone within a few months. He was probably the most forceful and outspoken western leader in support of Ukraine and he is paying a price. I'm guessing other European leaders are looking over their shoulders (particularly Germany). Another area where I disagree with him is that I think Russia is not as much of a threat as he does. I think the war has shown them that even a war with Ukraine is a hard slog for them and I don't think they are likely to be excessively adventurous. Contrary to the west's depiction of Putin as a dangerous, mad dictator he is actually a relatively moderate and rational leader. I expect them to take Ukraine as far as the Dnieper, which gives them a defensible geographic barrier. Going beyond that is problematic in multiple ways and I think Putin understands that.
I don't think support for Ukraine was a central issue for the no-confidence effort against Boris. From what I understand, most of it comes from his utter failure to carry out any of the ideas or promises that got him picked in the first place.
Even many Soviet leaders were more moderate and rational than he is. Putin is aggressive, has the subtly of an elephant, and is a personalist dictator that seems to be surrounded by yes men. I WOULD say he is a better leader than Yeltsin but after his invasion of Ukraine-I can't really say that anymore. Eating that level of sanctions to keep NATO off your border is stupid. Especially considering the fact that NATO is already on your border and no NATO member is stupid enough to invade Russia by land unless they wanna be drinking uranium from now on. Putin essentially skullfucked the Russian economy and didn't even have enough sense to modernize the military well enough to defeat Ukraine. Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in Europe with a military a fraction of Russia's. They will probably win this war but MAN they made some stupid ass decisions getting here.
So much of Zeihans narrative appears to be based on deep state wishful thinking it's hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. The Ukraine comments, as you so gently point out have not aged well. Nor has his earlier evaluation of Zelinsky as a new Churchill, LMAO. And let's not forget the pure misinformation he spouted about Trump. I have trouble with Zeihans lack of objectivity. It harms his credibility and leaves one always doubting the reliability of his views. It's all fine and well to tell a good story, but at this point in my life l am looking for trustworthy sources not agenda laden nonsense.
Putin yesterday or day before was extolling an adoring audience about reclaiming, justly, territory won 350 years ago by Tsar Peter (the Great☹️). State TV apparatchiks are screaming that Baltic states are next, then Poland. Russians are obsessed with a sense of greatness totally undeserving.
Crops can coast for several years on soil P and K. The problem of the "Haves" vs the "Have Nots" has lingered for a long time. Food shortages or even uncomfortable changes in diet could bring that conflict to action. Historically war was more local and consumed a higher percentage of the population than the last 100 years. Democide has occasionally tried to pick up the difference. Ignoring a widespread failure of civility and intentional slaughter of population is wishful.
Israel has the best demographic balance in the advanced world. Israel is about to sign an economical agreement with Saudi Arabia. This will provide Israel endless energy and Saudi protection by the IDF. This will provide Gulf and Red Sea sailing protection and huge support for globalisation.
Isn't he talking about De-globalization?
It seems to me, depopulation solves the food problem.
What about cloning humans ? Wouldn't that stop the demographic decline ?🤔
Peter is wrong about parental leave will have negative employment rate for females. Sweden, as mentioned has one longest parental leaves, and no it’s not tied to the mother, and it’s a static number of days per child, has less gender employment rate gap than US.
france is not going to be in a good place in the near future. first, due to a large immigration, poor , less educated, extremely religious and costly . the base foundation of tradition and cutlture that made this country great in the 80-90 is disapearing very fast , and being replaced by conflicts , and future internal civil wars . peter zeihan does not know france very well . economy or energy is not the only factor that play a major role in stability and growth . the country is so much in debt and chaos , that the social situation will not stay in place very long . the transpenracy of those facts are being controlled by the gov and the media . so countries outside france know very little what is going on really in france . they only see the things we want them to see .
The Chinese should replicate their success at restoring the Loess Plateau, which also grows food, all over the country. Learn permaculture people!
Terrific. Can you do that in and around the US Great Basin, while you're at it?
The Chinese has destroyed their country through mismanagement . The will to surpass america blinded them to the fact the USA owned the damn system
YES. They need all the help they can get, food-wise. That said, they have had some success fighting desertification south of the Gobi, and that's cool!
that not enough for their population size.
for 200m it’s even barely enough.
Don't forget that the Loess Plateau has a climate like eastern South Dakota, way more than the Great Basin. It gets enough rain to grow trees. Only 25% of the trees China planted in desert areas have survived.
If you don't hook up current events with biblical prophecy you'll miss the whole point. Seems foolhardy and a tragic waste.
Well there should beplenty of new babies in USA.
Love Peter but he never addresses importing 20-30 year olds. Europe's been doing it for a decade. How could that help China?
Who in the hell would they import? Indians? Indonesians?
Yeah, ten to one they will bring in African guest workers, but I bet they won't let them stay in the long run. It will be the century of the African guest worker/immigrant, in general.
What is so wrong with Russia existing?
It is Russian bullying and narcissism among other psychoses that is the problem.
@@carylhalfwassen8555 @ It's not Russia spreading it's "democracy" all over the world, whether they want it or not...
Man! It’s really all about numbers!
I’m saddened to by the absence of humanity.
Women are just the answer to increasing the population for the sake of business and their profits!
Of course, there’s no mention within any of these conversations about women, and how their lives, as human beings are going to be affected!
Oh yes, and all of those Russian children that were dropped into hod knows what! Orphanages?
Really? Have you no humanity?
In this numbers game of markets millions of children are just nothing! It’s just awful!
Anyone know someone as good as zeihan…..most suck
The only way the US comes through this demographic mess in thirty years is if we roll out anti-aging, we extend the worker lifecycle and have three age cohorts popping out enough kids and we automate our way out of labor shortfalls.
Big ifs, but Americans are a phenomenally lucky people
We're not lucky, most of us work hard.
We have a lot of resources and no real enemies close by very lucky indeed.
Americans are people from the world. Not lucky but hard workers and faith in our country
Peter was great as usual. The interviewer...not so much.
China can automate, states with less arable land can vertical farm, and Europe and Asia can accept migrants from Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East. Whether any of this happens is the question.
Vertical farming can help with some produce that will help but it's not ready to be used for grains which are critical for everyone's food supplies.
They can but many don’t think it’s a problem and are still worried about over population.
China's main problem is a lack of water and too few young people. The first can be solved but won't be as the solution isn't politically possible, and the demographic issue isn't solvable by its very nature.
Immigrants from those regions are less amenable to the economic and social prequisites that created the circumstances which attract these immigrants to start with.
@@berserkasaurusrex4233 Pollution of EVERYTHING in China makes it hazardous to live and farm there.
This guy is annoying in that he never talks about the POSITIVE aspects of population reduction, of which there are MANY.
Ugh, the depopulationist cult.
Peter Z. gets an audience due to his extreme predictions and hot takes. I wouldn’t take much of what he says seriously.
He seemed extreme until Russia invaded Ukraine. That vindicated his worldview in many ways. Yes, he embellishes/exaggerates for entertainment value.
Great talk, he didn’t mention America’s march towards autocracy/fascism and political collapse from “minority” rule as seen in the US senate. A fractured US is unavoidable and I’d love to get his take on this.
his take on "great reset" and davos nefarious plans would be interesting to hear schemes.
He has talked a lot about this. Search up "Zeihan American politics" or something. He basically sums it up like that the political landscape in the US is in the process of reshuffeling, with different interest groups moving between the Democratic and Republican Party. For example, the business community, which used to back the Republicans, have gotten scared of Trump and are migrating to the Democrats. All the while the unions are moving the opposite way, attractwe by Trump's new Republican Party.
All in all these reshufflings take place a few times each century. They're loud and uncomfortable, but it's gonna pass in a few years.
If you want an outside view, I very much think Zeihan is right, and your country is not turning into a facist dictatorship, communist hellscape or anarchic shithole. Take it easy. In ten years from now your country will still be the same democratic union of states it is today.
@@EnteiIsDoge We shall see how it goes. from wef videos i have seen and read about central bank digital currency it doesnt seem like that at all :). debt market getting close to blowing up,goverments defaulting on their debts, hyperinflation etc. carbon tax for everyone coming also. its under esg.
@@EnteiIsDoge I think you are right. And I'd like to extend to you an invitation to immigrate to us here in the USA 🇺🇸 if you ever feel you need to! Or at least come visit us. 👍
Best wishes!
@@EnteiIsDoge You nailed it. Peter sees this as a normal American process that the US goes through from time to time and we are in the middle of another shuffle. It's always painful...but will setting in time. He views predictions of the US descending into autocracy and fascism as nonsense because the two party system always reverts to the center in order to maintain power. But the groups in each party will shift.
On example...Black American's, have a lot in common with poor white Americans (such as a terrible education system run by unions that don't care about children and LOCK children into a monopoly..which will always produce bad results) and eventually the two groups should align. Racism is mostly stoked by the media...connected to democrats...which have an interest in keeping as much racial tension as possible...despite never doing anything for the groups they pretend to support.
Zeihan is not a military guy and it shows. The US Is not able to engineer a direct confrontation with Russia nor Is its victory over the Russians assured should it arise.
Pretty sure he consults regularly with US military, fwiw
No offense Maureen but you have no idea what you’re talking about. He attends the warfighter conference at MCCC in fort Benning. Had a speech there earlier this year and many army officers I know like his macro outlooks.
@@erikm7608 Do they attend when there aren't mandatory Pride events? As a former officer, I can tell you the military is becoming a woke joke. This trajectory can't continue.
He's a NATO cheerleader that's what he gets paid to do.
Peter looks smart at first sight, but when you study his "guesstimates" you realize he is mostly wrong about everything. Just check his older videos. Nothing comes to happen. His "predictions" may happen or not. However, what he says would happen soon or in the next 5-10 years, it may happen in 50 years - IF NOTHING CHANGES TODAY. Take his advice with a lot of salt.
Do you have any examples where he made a prediction and gave a time and was wrong? I'm not defending him, just curious?
@@EricThompsonClimber as I said, check his 5-7 years old videos. His ideas and predictions are moving and changing because they aren’t coming to pass. The main one is DEglobalization. The US doesn't have the luxury to live hang on Nafta, UK, and France. It is delusional
From lectures he gave since 2015 he has been prophetic but I find his views on China astounding in the short term.
@@carylhalfwassen8555 Cite 2 prophecies, please.
Peter Ziehan is always interesting, but his American chauvinism sometimes gets in the way of facts. For instance, you don't need to get more than five minutes into this interview to hear him claiming that freedom of navigation on the high sea was an American invention. Not so; it was the sometimes despised British Victorians who made it possible. As David Howarth says in 'Sovereign of the Seas': "Everyone takes it for granted that ships of every nation, in times of peace, can go unmolested on [the sea] wherever they wish. But that is certainly not an ancient freedom. It is only a legacy of the hundred years when Britain controlled the seas, and conceived that this was how things should be".
He doesn’t claim it was an American invention. If you’ve read or followed him for a while you’d know that. He’s said American naval power is like the British Imperial Navy during the height of the British empire. He even still considers the British Navy to be one of the strongest in the world. The US Navy was the largest to survive WWII and is unrivaled even today in power. There are larger ones like China but it is not nearly as capable of long endurance deployments. Peter knows his history. The American Navy also gets many of its customs and traditions from the British Navy.
I sorta disagree the Brits had freedom of the seas. Due to friendship w Dutch they sorta in 1700s didn't fight them in Asia, but did fight the French and Portuguese in India, which I assume included seizing any ships they could bankrupting French and P shippers. In 1700s in general they found ways to interfere with trade if they could. It was sorta crazy how 1700s the Brit Navy would find ways to seize ships or blockage in the Mediterranean, Brits were like pirates... In 1700s the French and Spanish had periods of war w Brits where ships were seized. Then 1800 for 20 years Napoleonic wars disrupted shipping. Ok by 1830 trade got goin again, but most Countries had learned to not invest much in trade since another war shutting down seatrade could occur. . . Post 1830s was Yes fairly safe, but most couldnt know the Brits wouldn't turn on them and blockade them, it was a risk. 1830 to 1916 was rare open seas time. Then ww1 had brits closing seas to German and Italian and Austrian ships, bankrupting their shippers. And Germans sank a few neutral ships by subs. This was repeated in 1940. Before 1950 it was Risky to rely on world trade for income, as this history shows. .... I do think US was Sooooo strong 1950 that countries would rely on US navy to keep world trade sea lanes open, it was a big change.... I could be wrong..... There was also local laws, most of Spanish Americas the Spanish court didn't want foreigners selling stuff, the Brits forced the "asiento" right to sell, but the Swedes or Romanians had no such right. Same with African colonies, the local Brit or French governor kept out foreign ships like Swedish or Romania. India was Brit soon... Asia was Portuguese then Dutch.... China remained more open, but would you trust the Emperor to not decide to bar imports, world trade was risky to design economy towards. I need to read a book on this, ha....
@@kainmitchell898 Listen again at 4.20. I stand by my case.
@@mostlyguesses8385 With the greatest of respect, much of what you say is unhistorical and anyway doesn't contradict my point that it was the Victorian British, not those of the eighteenth century, who developed freedom of trade. AS you say, mostly guesses - and inaccurate ones, at that.
@@ACD54 ... A vague claim that someone else is factually incorrect is lazy, how, what source? Do you even know what spanish "asiento" trade permission was? So, no, I think free trade/safe seatrade was limited pre1950, especially for minor countries. Do you think a business in Bulgaria, Ethiopia, or Thailand could be Sure they could spend to build factories for world markets from Vietnam to Argentina and never be stopped any place for decades? Or would they feel unsure 1700 to 1950 they may find ship seized or blocked or pirated, or imports blocked or suddenly tarriffs jump up 50% say... This is tricky, technically trade could be allowed but many years informal blocks may appear...
I like Peter Zeihan but I think he is a bit too confident of his assertions and too dismissive of countries like Russia and China. China's fate is unknown. They are not transparent about their data but we should resist going too far in the opposite direction and assuming that they are lying about everything. A demographic crisis in China seems likely but not in a decade. They still have a large number of young people to soften the blow until the effects of their disastrous one child policy comes home to roost. And there are ways for countries to anticipate and deal with an aging population. Increased automation, encouraging mass immigration or migrant workers, or pro-natalist policies (i.e. banning abortion, subsidizing births).
I’d argue that China peaked around 2018. They’re not automating like Japan.
Remember when the world thought it needed "Lebensraum" or the "population explosion" would doom us all to Malthusian famines? But all that turned out to be bullshit. Human societies are remarkably adaptive and the reality is demographics are not in fact key drivers of wars UNLESS YOU THINK THEY ARE. It's not that the nazis were forced into wars, that was just a convenient myth. So be careful when making myths about the inevitable doom of America's enemies or the "inevitable" demographically driven American victory.
Perhaps unwittingly, Zeihan is reprising eugenics / lebensraum / population explosion determinism, but from the other side of the equation. I expect it will similarly go bust.
"Whether the rock hits the pitcher or the pitcher hits the rock, it's going to be bad for the pitcher."
False equivalence. Your comment seems to say that "because a century old deterministic prediction was wrong, therefore Peter's analysis is wrong." Yet, you don't address any of Peter's points, which by the way are not a "reverse reprisal" of eugenics, etc.
In the friendliest way, I urge you to take a closer look at Peter's arguments beyond this one brief interview. Plenty of long-form presentations are available on RUclips.
In 1930s the Germans faced Commie army and Stalin who would love to send most Germans to gulags, and after that Turks who still dreamed of empire, and Brits who would cut off sea trade and oil from Iran. It was a dog eat dog world, where enemies would do harmful things, so growing Population and Army was vital, what a dark world...... I admit 2020s war and boycotts are less likely, leaders are wussier. But Putin proved it takes just 1 crazy leader to push most to ugly actions again. We are getting less oil, less food, less fertilizer, less tourism, etc, so in a weird process the world is getting more brutal and less connected. Zeihan seemed crazy to say world was gonna change, but then we get 2021, wow. . Birthrate matters a lot cause we have Pension and Health programs, if goes from 4 workers to 1 retiree goes to 1 to 1, the payroll tax goes from 6% to 20%, so man will the young workers suddenly work harder for less in return. So population growth still matters. It is sorta fair, China has bad daycares, bad healthcare, bad crime including child kidnappings so wifes quit work to safeguard 1 child 10 years, and Chinese leaders stole the money to fix all this so the people decided to have just 1 kid not 2 or 3. . . It's a complex analysis but it all matters a bit... Zeihan is also warning of worse case scenarios which are Good to prep for, even if only 10% likely... Ha.
@@mostlyguesses8385 I think Zeihan is highly intelligent but mistaken on demographic determinism.
He's not forecasting doom. What he is saying that, unless you have geography and demographics on your side, you will be moving into a state that will be rough and unpleasant. And as I see it, it will be rough in the US, Mexico, Argentiana, etc as well, just much less rough.
Demographics is Destiny ONLY if you are using a Capitalist / Free Market economy. Except the elephant in the room is the Capitalist / Free Market economy is at its EOL. Why ? Technology, specifically AI. The need for labor to produce goods and services will evaporate over the next few decades. You wont need a lot of new young people. There certainly will be alot of upheaval but unlike Peter I think it will be worldwide, and not based just on demographics only. The societies that will suffer the most are the ones that are excessively wedded to their current systems and are not willing to accept that Capitalism wont work in the new Technological age.
Not true, demography applies even if you’re authoritarian and not capitalist. AI can help somewhat but imo it’s not being implemented fast enough to make up for the loss of production.
@@libertyprime2013 Controlled economies dont need to rely on market forces as such, they can order whatever they want. Capitalist / Free Market economies cant.
@@elliskaranikolaou2550 bro , no. Evry economy is dependent on agin people fascism communism nazism if you have a 2/3 of population that are 40> your economy army society its fuked period
Peter is really smart, but he has a deep flaw (most of us do). He is too sure of his conclusions. He is basically saying nothing can be done - period. Not true. If something seems impossible - check your assumptions. Russia doesn’t HAVE to keep attacking. They don’t have to take Ukraine and Poland. The could gracefully resign from empire and enjoy their resource bounty to re-educate and develop. Population demographics can be solved by robotics and immigration and making people work longer.
'I wish I could be as certain of anything as he is of everything.'
I guess it's what it takes to hold an audience, but the idea that he could possibly be correct on more than a tiny fraction of all the broad, sweeping predictions he tosses off so effortlessly, on every topic under the geopolitical sun, is laughable.
Of course, the same is true for everyone else, so at least he keeps it interesting, and his innate 'contrarianism' does force people to question the conventional wisdom.
He really, really needs interviewers who are well-informed enough, especially about him, to push back a little more and challenge some of the glibness. I've never seen anyone even attempt to disagree with him. I think his extraordinary knowledge base just overwhelms them.
The part that confuses me is his optimism for japan. I mean they rely entirely on foreign consumers to operate but their cultural aversion to software first products caused their almost all of their tech sector to collapse in the last few decades and that's probably going to repeat itself when cars go through a similar transition. Like outside of cars and cameras people don't actually buy stuff from them.
@@Danny-gg9gs What cultural aversion to software? If anything Japan is imo relying too much on automation in order to bandage their demographics crisis.
Simple, Japan has no backwards culturally incompatible people imported in masses like Europe. George Friedman also predicted Japan to be one of the superpowers of the 21st century, Zeihan is not alone in his predictions here.
This PEter guy is a joke. No wonder we see the US is in such a state of deterioration.
Nah we good. We are in thr most peaceful time in human history. Shit was worst in our countries past
lol what a joke this guy is randomly throwing made up data here and there pretending to be an expert.