I love how almost everyone is cheering on a home crash.. I think this shows that there is a great imbalance of greedy investors and decent people who just want an affordable place to live. The tide is finally turning...
And if you go on the realestate subreddit on Reddit and the FOMO bros are still gonna attack you if you so much as suggest a correction, much less a crash.
Supply and demand. Part of the issue is that even if you refuse to buy at a certain price point, with our current immigration policy, its not hard for wealthy foreigners to swoop in and buy out. The causality of high prices involves way more than just some "greedy investors", its a whole swath of factors which is cranking up the price of just about everything.
A crash would be great for investors. It’s a buying opportunity. The bigger the crash, the bigger the opportunity. The people with access to capital will… capitalize.
Unfortunately it's not a 40% decrease in property asking prices. It's 40% of properties have reduced the price. He doesn't say how much. Austin is still seeing 20% price increases YOY, $500 to $1000 per sq.ft. depending on the location.
@@Tbell550 Watching the listings every day, I am seeing daily cuts..huge cuts...$10K to $20K on a, say, $400,000 house. So yeah, there are many cuts, weekly on some houses less than $500K, at $10K a whack, for5 or 6 weeks in a row.
@@jobiet That is a significant price drop. But, still in the 5-10% range on homes that may be asking 20% over market value. Supply is lagging demand and materials and labor costs are going up due to inflation. Buyer are still waiving inspections with no appraisal because they're paying cash. And, we haven't seen the inflow from all the big tech companies moving in yet.
Homes are affordable until interest rates rise. Then they'll be unaffordable. Thousands of houses are selling every month to average people. Nothing has changed (yet).
@@pauluttermohlen318 But ordinary people have broken the 25% rule to get into homes, leaving them married to their house and stretching. The budget thin
@@bluesbrother2383 people are sucked in by the hype., and getting themselves over extended, we’re not headed for a crash, but a correction is definitely in the future
Something to keep in mind: Home prices for the markets experiencing increases in price cuts are still significantly higher than markets that are experiencing declines in price cuts. In other words. Home prices in markets with decreases in price cuts may NEVER equal the prices in markets with increases in price cuts, no matter how severe the real estate market crash. For example: Prices for homes in Florida will NEVER reach the price levels of homes in California.
Man, you did call this several months ago. It's so cool to watch it turn in real time. I'm in S. FL sitting it out. Your analyses have helped reduce my anxiety to do deals. Thank you. 🙏
In the panhandle of FL and houses are insane right now. No inventory few rentals and the market is way over inflated. Lots of investment buying for vacation and air B&B. I think I’m going to hold off investing on anything till our market levels out. The area is a great rental area especially for 1-2 yr leases or even if you have that costal VBRO!
@@samandress4573 Unless Florida changes its no state income tax policy, the market will continue to be hot and it is definitely not overinflated. Many high income earners that work from home are buying and moving to Florida because of it doesn't have state income tax. That drives the prices up.
As a home owner, a price increase is bad unless you have a loan and can sell to come out ahead (and can move some place!). These inflated prices just mean your taxes will be higher.
And unless you downsize when selling (assuming you’re buying the next hm), the commiserate market appreciation just widens the gap on the premium paid to move. Ex. In searching market, my small 1200sqft hm is worth an extra $40-50k than when bought some time ago. However, the 3000-4000sqft hm’s in area we’re looking at are up $80-100k since covid. Moving would be far more affordable without the appreciation in my area.
So absolutely true. Just before the old bubble I refinanced to a lower rate, but within a year my payment had crept back up again because the house was considered "more valuable" and the taxes went up. It is "paper worth" unless you decide to actually cut and run... but you have to run far because selling in that market means I just need to buy an overpriced house or downsize. OR... sit tight, ride it out, and chuckle as those top priced houses lose 50% value, as does mine, but I am still in the black because I never moved.
@@ReventureConsulting only real estate investors are profiting off this b.s and they’re the ones causing it Maybe we need a law not allowing adults to own more than one pre built home If the investors really wana be moguls they should build new ones instead of making it impossible for normal couples to raise a family
The median sales price of single-family homes in the Boise housing market was $354,900, up 20.31 percent from last year. House prices in Ada County rose 15.33 percent to a record of $363,000. The median sales price of a single-family home made a record-setting of $365,645 in March 2020, a year-over-year increase of 8%. < THIS IS NOT A CRASH. I can see a lot of naive real estate newbies here.
@ChopperPopper nice I would be on the side of buying property to live in. Just want to get the very best bang for my bucks so to speak. Not really interested in over paying for home which isn't even worth the over price sticker stuck to it by those greedy individuals looking to make extra off me. An if I needed to sell n go elsewhere I wouldn't recover what I put into home so I think I have to get my money worth in any property...and the excess would go towards other services etc and home needs...barring the soft commission realtors are entitled potentially..everyone gotta eat not jersey folks round my thoughts lol
It's going to be interesting to see the stubborn sellers thinking they can still command whatever they want. Been watching a few properties that have been on the market for 2 to 3 months now, which means it didn't even sell at the end of July and August which I think was the peak. And they still aren't cutting the price. They are going to be very disappointed too.
@@speedomars yea...im ganna disagree on this one. Seeing prices already dropping more and have been the past couple months or so really does indicate a change. And there are other factors as well. Also just because we are In a sellers market right now doesn't mean the seller can ask and get whatever they want. But to hit a bottom will def take 2 to 3 years
@@speedomars I know so many "seasoned" real estate investors that have made multiple mistakes throughout the years. By the time you get the "broad market" information of 2 years it's all ready too late. The same reason many believe that things will just keep going up, because of the last couple of years information. It's a significant lagging factor. I appreciate you worried about my investments though. No need to worry though my friend. At least not for myself. Cheers and happy hunting!
@ChopperPopper I agree, probably just another realtor or greedy investor hoping to make good profits and unable to face the inevitable. Probably bought high and hoping to sell higher.. Lol
@@speedomars This video is very selective with the data source (Zillow and perceived value) and how it was presented. If you look at Redfin data for SLC and ID Markets Median sale price has not come down at all. SLC shows 488K for median sales price in Aug an all-time high. Bosie shows 480k a all-time high. At the same time it shows price drops on listings at an all-time high but price drops doesn't mean homes are selling for less just that people are listing too high.
Amazing. I was planning to buy in Boise this Spring, graduated from Boise State 4 years ago and have seen the exponential growth. Decided to hold off by the time July/August rolled around because I saw a few videos of yours and looked at prices closely. Things have cooled off DRASTICALLY and about 30% of the houses are up for over a month which was unheard of last year. Price cuts on almost half of the houses. I could see another 20% correction in the next year and will take advantage of the perfect home at that time!
So I left solo to florida 2 weeks ago. I found a house I liked. But after a deep inspection, the home had structural damage. The inspector told me thousands of homes in Florida are pledged with termites, mold and endless home settling not to mention central and northern florida have phosphate mining. I packed my stuff and left back to Colorado. Thanks but no thanks.
I have been a real estate investor for the last 15 plus years. I follow the industry very closely and you nailed everything in this video. Great job man. You got my sub👍
Sold my investment property in July for 467k, the buyer relisted it for 483k and then dropped the price down 2 days ago to 465. Apparently there wasn't as much demands as they thought there would be
I talked to my mortgage broker in Florida yesterday about the hot market, can't find anything to buy... She told me a lot of big companies are buying houses, real estate properties in Florida. Cash offers.. can't compete with them. I also read that those companies buy those properties to keep them some to flip them, but they can't flip them because they can't find any workers to renovate the houses . So it's all in stand by for now
If your a multi family buyer everyday/ anyday is a good time to buy. Know your reasoning. Mine is for cash flow. None of this effects cashflow so you buy today
Austin may be vulnerable because of the notoriously high property tax rates in Texas. No, Texas doesn’t have state income tax but they compensate with property taxes. You gotta look at the total payment, which includes property taxes.
Really I wasn't aware of this thank you. So do think it would be wise to purchase there in the state of Texas ? Not just within Austin area where he states cuts are currently..🤔
You have an excellent point. I don't believe alot of people who bought homes during the crazy times this summer realize just how high property taxes are in Texas.
Prop taxes wouldn't need to be so high if the state actually funded rural schools. Instead the Robin Hood laws in Texas mandate that excess tax money that exceeds local school budgets get sent to the state for redistribution (socialism) to the poorer rural areas. Yes, Texas loves socialism when it comes to punishing city folk.
Nick’s map shows that Portland is about neutral or slightly down on price reductions in the Portland area. I think our timing for selling is good but not perfect. My friend just sold his house in 4 days for $10k above asking price.
Las Vegas \ Henderson MLS has LOTS of $10,000, $50,000 some $100,000 - $200,000 PRICE REDUCTIONS !!! ALL Zillow-owned homes have price reductions and lots of them are listed under Zillows purchase price.
LOCAL LAS VEGAS & HENDERSON MLS!!! If you’re a seller better hurry and list, a buyer better wait because the market has a way to go down…. I predict 3 - 6 months before it’s buy time at discounted prices instead of the overinflated ones now.
@@RubenGarmyn ok but u made it sound like the prices were already going down in ur first post. I'm wanting to buy in vegas but the prices are ridiculous with no sign of going down.
@@ericzee6506 I have a Redrock condo I am contemplating selling and just had a realtor look at it. Was going to sell as is in this market and the realtor said I should put new carpet stainless etc and sell in couple months as market was not softening yet and he thinks my condo zillow offered $255K for will go for $280K, a smaller one next door is listed $265 so we will see. GL!
Nice houses in good areas in Las Vegas/ Henderson are still selling very fast! Reductions are only for those homes that were ridiculously overpriced in the first place or in undesirable conditions.
Been sitting here with 60k in bank and about 30k I'm willing to take out of 401k for first house. This is good to hear and see. I'm still cautious to buy anytime soon.
Was Zillow accurate the first time? Yes many area's have inflated for no reason, but I am curious to know how accurate Zillow could have been initially.
@@kokake and you can find specific properties on Zillow where the zestimate is just incorrect, probably like the 2 he had used as examples. If you list below the zestimate Zillow automatically makes the zestimate closer to the list price.
@@Sam-um2ci any direct MLS portal. Do you want to look at a local MLS site for the best up-to-date local information. You probably know 30 people with a real estate license, have them set you up on a feed to search your desired area
Price cuts alone don’t prove a crash. People were listing at absurd prices. He should show us what things are actually selling for compared to last year.
That’s not exactly a “call”. When everyone knows that Boise had the highest appreciation it’s easy to say Boise will also have or be the first to depreciate. Especially in this way. Same thing happens in the stock market. Ask anyone.
So something sold for $10 last week, that is listed for $13 today, price cut to $11 and sells at $10.50-11 is a crash? This is exactly what we are seeing in my area right now. Lots of sellers asking huge prices, lowering when it doesn’t sell, but selling prices still up overall.
Bingo. Same in my area too. Sales prices are a better indication of market crashes, not price cuts. Home are still selling for ridiculous amounts in the DMV area regardless of a price reduction of a couple thousand dollars.
I’ve noticed that a lot of houses I saved on Zillow have been taken off the market recently, but not because they were sold. I have my suspicions, but what is your opinion about that?
According to the Shiller index, U.S. housing prices peaked in 2006 and kept falling all the way until 2012. If someone wants to buy a home in SoCal to be used as a primary residence, will the buyer potentially have to wait five or six years for prices to bottom out after the next U.S. housing crash starts? Will it better to invest the down payment for the house in the stock market ONLY AFTER stocks crash and bottom out much faster (perhaps within months) and then to buy a home years later when home prices are bottoming out?
Yes, unless people don't mind paying more than the house is worth. If you wait a few years your housing payment would be much lower. I would buy once the prices bottom and start to go up again.
@@angellight5040You would wait maybe five or six years to buy a house, even if you had to pay high rent during the long wait? What would you do with your cash during the wait and high inflation?
Not in my area. North Texas you wont find a house, and if you do, you better come in hot because it will get yanked from you quick. Fastest growing area in the nation. We do not participate in recessions and such.
significant price decreases in the Philly suburbs, and realtors are being sneaky and deleting the entire property from zillow. then they re-list and it has no property history, to mask the price cuts. it's so shady.
When QE ends and mortgage availability/rates deteriorate, you are going to see prices drop like a stone. I Do think the Federal government will offer support for owner occupied homes. Investors that have to sell will be S.O.L.
Wait until they stop printing money and people have to get a job. The low interest rate let's houses inflate 20 to 30 percent. Wait until this fabricated cost increase is not rolled into the loan. When interest rates finally get some normalcy, house prices will drop.
Don't bet on it. There are fewer and fewer people that are qualifying for prime rates. That's what happens when you do not work and overload your credit cards.
I’ve been watching Idaho super close as we want to buy property in Rexburg. A duplex that we offered on a few weeks ago has dropped $110k in value in 2 months and still hasn’t sold. It’s fallen out of contract twice while we’ve been watching it. I’m curious to hear your thoughts on if you think things will return to pre-covid levels or if we are taking a further nose dive. Love your content! Thanks for your hard work!
You def should keep waiting. It’s gone up A TON in the last couple years. I lived in meridian 3 yrs ago and can’t believe my eyes when I see the current prices.
Zestimate is not an accurate picture of value, especially in non-disclosure states like Texas. How much have you factored seasonality into your analysis? I think we are seeing a correction but I think your numbers are a bit ambitious.
Thanks for the comment, Cole! Agreed that the Zestimate isn't perfect. However, that doesn't stop home owners from checking them like their stock portfolio.
Z estimate is complete BS. My home was estimated at 435k, I sold it for 467k and the estimate jumped to 475k. The buyer relisted it with no improvements for 483k and the estimate went to 491k. The price was reduced to 465k and the estimate went down to 469k.
Boise and Spo-CAN may have had huge price increases in housing but look at what companies pay there. Very low wages. Gonna be a very big crash in those two markets when mom and dad's can't pay the mortgage with the $12 an hour job they moved to.
Zillow estimates are not actual value estimates. I'm sure you know that as a real estate investor. Why not show actual closed sales data (the only data that actually matters) before you call the big crash?
@@Minecraft_mast imagine if real estate prices suddenly plunged 50% today which we know is impossible but … imagine the feeding frenzy that would occur. Prices would, again, go through the roof.
Yeah the listing price cuts here only drive more people to see the house and often times the place gets over bid by 30% above asking price. So there's really no discount to be had.
@@savoy6 if prices plunged 50% I would liquidate, leverage everything I could to the hilt and buy, buy, buy!!! But you are right, not happening. Even a 15% drop would bring many out of the woodwork.
Define a housing crash. On the ground in Boise. There are certainly a lot of price decreases but that was inevitable. It’s not so much the amount of price reductions we are seeing that matters given the historical price context. The data that matters more to a “crash” would be price reduction relative to original asking price in $ amounts. Houses are still in very high demand (although admittedly not what it was 9 months ago) but I would argue that Boise is not in the middle of a crash. Also, the historical data cannot take into account the current politics. The covid policies have driven people born and raised in WA, OR, and CA to idaho and other states. Their attitude is that they are never returning to their homeland. Covid was the straw that broke the camels back for many. I don’t see that demand changing based on school/mask policies. Remote working and the changing dynamic is also a big factor that historical data can’t take into account.
a majority of viewers here seem to think "normalization" means a "crash". A lot of people are going to be SOL when prices plateau while rates rise, meaning they're going to be paying higher monthlies anyways but with a lower purchase price. For some reason everyone thinks the latter is a better deal.
@@reptar1 Assuming prices ONLY PLATEAU, even then, that strategy could offer better choice of inventory, better economic outlook, better loan acceptance and that strategy could be wise. maybe that’s because rates can go down again and you can refi the flat or even lower purchase price. But if you already purchase at a high price with historically low prices you will never refi at a lower rate AND your higher price is locked in. This is just another reason the wealthy buy real estate at market price dips, refi or borrows with a HELOC when the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy and then they rinse and repeat. Happened in the 70s, 80s, 01’, 07’ …..
@@boulderghost4457 of course. Valid possibility. But isn’t that what all of this is? Trying to guess which possibility is eventually true? My point is that for most people that are throwing away rent for x number of months/years praying for a dip may never see the right market that they’re looking for. Timing the market (bottom) is a fools game and yet everything believes that singular outcome is what’s going to happen.
Nick is really gaining subscribers , as he should. I have been watching him for a year. And forwarding his videos to people I care about. He works hard and it’s nice to see him grow. I am a 40 year experienced real estate investor in phoenix. Nick is still 400 k subscribers behind “ Bailey the golden retriever “ but more people would like to see a funny feel good video, than real estate. Real estate is work ! Dogs are not mans best friend by accident!
Just sold my house in Nashville ($76k above asking and cash) and moving to Atlanta. I’ve seen quite a few price cuts in ATL. What is the estimated time in ATL before we may see lower home values?
Starting to see price cuts in MD, but sellers were also listing very over the "zestimate". Prices have gone up 20-25% since Feb 2020. Especially the lower parts of MD that are close to DC.
Exactly. Price cuts in that area i am seeing are about 10-25K, but a LOT of these homes are overvalued to begin with or need $80-$100k of work. So a lot of these price cuts, while a good start, are still bullshit!
It's also important to check the condition of the property. If the property is totally renovated, it will be gone within the first week of showings. The price cuts I see are houses in weird lots or need work condition
Agreed - same in my market. And even 45 minutes out of the city in more ruralish areas. Homes are still going very quick especially renovated. Technically my area in NC is still fairly affordable. Below national median average.
We are going to see a huge surge in buyer remorse. Always stupid to buy when real estate prices are rising rapidly - unless you have no other choice and plan on holding for 10years.
As always. Great information. I remember a couple of month ago when you said in a video that Boise, ID is the NO 1 when it comes to a crash. And here we are. Well done.
I have been tracking listings in Riverside Ca and Moreno Valley CA for the last month and active listings have increased roughly 10% and 20% respectively over the past 3 weeks.
Yup me too. I am going to still wait even though you said it went up even higher. My credit can still be improved and I can still continue to save and see what happens by 2022
There were a lot of studies that starting coming out a couple of months ago very publicly which showed that Boise real-estate was way overvalued. That was also around the beginning of the downturn. Your videos give me the motivation to wait even longer for the crash back to Earth to happen!
You called Boise a couple of months ago if I'm not mistaken. Great analysis! There is an Austin realtor that comes up on my feed that uses a bunch of short term info to dispute what is actually happening. Tried to get my wife motivated to sell in Tampa. Looks like there is a bit of time left here...might still win that battle.
Athens is great and working its way into metro Atlanta..vie development in Gwinett and Barrow County..Winder about half way between Atlanata and Athens is expanding like crazy.
Love your videos, so informative and easily understood. We are retirees and thinking of moving to Savannah as Charleston is too expensive. What are your thoughts?
Utah's market is ever growing.. No crash happening here! You have to look at more data than just Zillow price decreases. If you rely on Zillow for your valuations, you're very misinformed.. Inventory is still at record lows as well as interest rates. Buying activity is still very high. I've had multiple homes in the last few weeks that have sold for WAY over asking price! It will be a hot minute before we see any type of decrease, let alone a "crash" here in Utah!
I too am in Utah and agree 100%. I am in Park City which is insane! I wanted to buy a property that was 2.2 million and was bought 12 months ago for 1 million. It's under contract already for 2.2 million!
Quick note: amount of price cuts (quantity of listings that are dropping pricing) is a great metric. However, knowing the average percentage of total list price on average that these houses are dropping by would be more accurate, and informative. If they are pulling more permits, and have overbuilt, there may be a good chance that large developments are being cut down on list price for new builds. Probably tough to grab unless you’re running a scraping service on top of the API data you’re getting from realtor or Zillow. E.g.: 10k average or 2.5% of total list price price cut or are people price cutting $1k to get notifications sent to everyone’s phones that a property they favorited had a cut in price? I’ve seen this tactic used by listing Real estate agents a lot in PHX. Also, I’m curious what effect seasonality has on markets like Boise. In markets that experience winter, if you’re selling your house around that time, not as many buyers usually as kids are in school again, people don’t like moving in the snow. What are the average price changes as a percentage of list price during the fall and winter seasons? Time on market averages? All of these would help give a more solid view compared to spring/summer price jumps.
This is 4 months later and I’m seeing huge price cuts in my area. One example is a house that was listed for $360k in the summer of 2021. It’s now winter 2022 and the house is still sitting. The seller dropped the price several times and it’s now selling for $290k and it’s still sitting. I’m seeing price cuts more frequently.
Deflation is interesting. It's difficult to fight deflation because buyers will delay with the expectation that prices will fall even more. It's why we have these crashes. Obviously the Fed and the banksters are at fault for creating this problem.
Thanks for sharing the data. Live in VA outside DC. Sold in August. Surprised to see prices dip as the area during my lifetime has seemed to stand outside of so many market drops. Sorry for those who are experiencing the pain, happy from the perspective of one who likes to see prices reflect actual income. This area is still ridiculously overpriced for us worker bees.
Good question! Job growth and migration levels tend to be highly correlated, except for in retirement areas (parts of FL/AZ, e.g.) where the migrants don't tend to work.
I'm wondering when "The OC" will crash. It's a bubble of overpriced homes surrounded by crashing counties. Tract homes built in the 50s and 60s are on the market for as much as $1M. Real estate agents are still saying, "Be realistic, buy now. The crash may never happen." Sigh.
Thanks for the comment! It's interesting how LA/OC-area realtors are so confident in the sustainability of the market. 10 out of the last 30 years across the metro home prices have gone down.
The problem with "The OC" is the amount of outside money being pumped into it. I'm definitely one of the causes to that problem because I moved here from out of state to be close to the ocean with lots of great weather. Buying a home in a beach town wasn't too big of an issue for me. It was more than I wanted to spend, but I spent it because I could. Many others in my town are much the same way too. We made money in other cities like Boston, NY, & Philadelphia - got sick of the weather and decided to move to California. You also see that with people from China picking Orange County because of Irvine and the great school system there. So I'm not sure OC will ever truly come crashing down like other counties in southern California unfortunately.
I noticed though the listings in these homes in my area begin ridiculously high almost on purpose and then price cut a week later. Almost trying to fool people
A Question: If one sells their house for a premium in the current market and then buys another during this seller's market...does it not work out "even" in the end. What am I missing?
Zillow themselves are selling houses at a loss. Look at the listings, you'll see Zillow as a buyer and price reductions to a price lower than their buying price.
you know that's a lie, I'm looking at it right now. Like 10-15% of them do. Only 500 total listings up to $600,000. They went from having 5-7 homes with price cuts to now having 75 out of 500 homes. You are a liar and so is this video. Also, the homes are listed 30k over the value. Is 10k off of 30k over the value really a deal? aren't they still getting more than its worth? You big dumb
The median sales price of single-family homes in the Boise housing market was $354,900, up 20.31 percent from last year. House prices in Ada County rose 15.33 percent to a record of $363,000. The median sales price of a single-family home made a record-setting of $365,645 in March 2020, a year-over-year increase of 8%. If you sit on the sidelines you will continue to lose money in this market. Fall and winter are NORMAL stalls in the real estate market due to kids in school and no one wanted to relo.
@@speedomars your figures are off. Boise was over 480k median home price this year and nampa was over 450k. The price reductions aren't quite as big as this video implies, but its a start, at least. I live in Nampa and missed the boat on the housing market here. I've been renting and biding my time for the next crash. I hope this is only the beginning of it.
@@Brandon_Nelson92 You might be waiting for awhile. The flight out of certain states, such as California, especially with the direction the political landscape is going, will ensure certain states and locations have a low supply with high demand. Add desperation into the mix and don't be surprised to see prices going up.
Do you consider ridiculous original asking prices into the price cut analysis? Here in Tampa, FL we’re seeing homes sit on the market for a few months then sellers cut prices and they’re gone. Mainly due to sellers asking way over appraisal value from the jump.
Please use rations when you say the “decline in the number of” Number of price cuts will fluctuate with the number of new listings. I’d be more interested in cuts per listings.
Percent increase in number of listings that have a price cut is basically a garbage statistic on its own. First, as mentioned, it isn’t normalized for total number of listings. Second, it’s a percent increase. If the number of price cuts a year ago was very low, we could see a huge percent increase and still have a very low level. Third, this is based on the comparison to the initial listing price. If listing prices are going up as sellers realize that everything is going for over asking, eventually sellers will start setting listing prices too high. Selling prices might still be going up, but just not as fast as initial listing prices. Lots of better statistics could have been included in this video, but weren’t. It makes me suspect that this is intended to drive prices down more than give honest analysis.
@@samuelrussell5760 fully agree! Statistic is not just to look at the charts, statistic is a science and needs much deeper analyzing to be done. More later. The world circumstances should be involved in the consideration like energy crisis, material prices and shortage going on from China etc. so i would say this analysts would not be considered as full and entirely correct. I am certifies business Consulter and realtor in South Florida. Seems our market is overheated with the prices but actually it is not , inventory is very low and there is not any reason why prices could go down again because no massive new construction of single family houses is going on again because of shortage in materials etc. look whats going on in China and it will and already does effect the entire world.
I can say for Virginia Beach the reason it is so high on this list is the Military froze PCS(moving) last year so there was no inventory from moving sailors. So now there are lots of sailors moving around and its a rush to sell their houses. Same thing is happening in places like San Diego but they are much bigger markets and can suck up that inventory easier.
You are picking one property to represent a large market. You are also making the assumption that Zillow Estimate is accurate. I appreciate the argument. Just not convinced your data supports this.
even Zillow's own chart you can see they INFLATED the price for a 50% just in one year (the one in Salt Lake had an average of 350-400k for years, and suddenly they ask 600k in less than a year?? It is ridiculous to call this a crash........a crash happens when there is no demand for an over-extended amount of offers.......makes no sense what he first say "there are still a LOT of people trying to buy their first house".......back in 2008 people were buying houses they didn't needed as investments (as The Big Short showed, a hooker had 5 condos and 2 houses), that means when there was no real interest in buying houses to live......here he claims the demand exist, but the prices are dropping.......but they are dropping because they were over/inflated by greedy real estate companies.
Zillow’s estimate is the biggest joke, I saw house in my neighborhood that was accidentally listed with an extra zero..like 5 million instead of 500,000...Zillow’s estimate was magically around 5.1 million 🤣🤣
I saw a Zilliow property with a cardboard auction sign in the Arrow Creek subdivision in Boise, ID. It is listed by Zillow for $1M. $1M+ properties don't usually use cheap auction signs in normal healthy markets IMO.
I am so glad I found your content, we are first time homebuyers in the Sarasota area of Florida and patiently waiting for the correction. Your content gives me confidence that we are making the right choice. The price cuts are just barely starting here but inventory is still very low.
Give it time. Remember 2008? all the forclosures. If evergrande topples the ripple will tsunami the world. Companies like backwater are tied in deep with them dont believe them that it's just china. Good things come to those to wait.
I live in Sarasota too and my daughters trying to buy her first home but she keeps getting beat buy people moving here from other states with cash offering higher than what house is asking price. It’s so discouraging cause our kids that grew up here can’t afford to live here.
Chances are this guy could be very wrong on his crystal ball prediction. Nobody knows when a crash is coming. don't believe anyone that promises something they don't know lol
Prices went up due to money being printed and pumped. If the Dems get their 3.5 T passed, then you better buy what you can... BUT.... keep in mind the property taxes may force you out of your home unless your wages goes up with inflation.
Home prices are based on the cost of replacement. There's no way that's going down in most places, especially considering supply issues and the increasing cost of labor and artificial cost increase due to poor tax/ regulation policies pushed by democrats. This is fool's gold.
I got realtor friends like this. They keep telling people nows the perfect time to buy and how everyone’s doing it. Seems odd how despite everyone buying right now they’re up selling on their friends to buy now
@@starmc26 he deserves it to be honest. He always brags his money and how he pays no taxes because of the state he’s in. They’re just salesmen and profit off convincing people To buy a home, even if they shouldn’t lol
@@machetekid07 "They"... (the national association of Realtors) ...all band together to manipulate the market and keep it as high as possible, so they can make the most money, always.
I am happy about this because I am looking to buy a home but because of the crazy market I decided to wait, the homes are literally pending sale the second day on the market...
I remember back in 2015 Homes in Aurora, CO where going to for under $120k with missing windows and doors and I laughed. Greedy investors bought them all up and now they are going for $450k and upward! Ridiculous, I say skip Denver altogether. I lived there for 12 years, but realize I can never go back no matter how badly I want to.
Hey Chris, I am a local realtor in Denver. We are seeing some price cuts but it doesn't tell the whole story. Homes that are move in ready and priced right are still getting multiple offers and often over asking price. Denver is not a boom bust market I have lived in Colorado my whole life. I would vote if you plan on staying for at least 5 years you start looking if you are ready. PM me if you need local help. Good Luck
Chris, do not listen to realtors, they will tell you anything to make commissions. Denver is a massive bubble! My townhome doubled in price in less than 4 years. The smart people sold and moved on. It is way overpriced there.
@@JIMN26 Congratulations on your townhome! There are always opportunities in all markets at all times. As you have more time in an area you learn that the most successful real estate investors buy and hold over decades not one cycle. Those who have a long term mindset and can weather short term bumps will continue to profit over the long term. Long Term Thinking>Short Term Congrats again on your townhome and good luck in the future.
Thanks for the comment, Stephanie! Ultimately the buy/sell decision is a personal one related to finances, family situation, and living preferences. I can't provide direct advice on that. However - the recent data seems to suggest that Sacramento area will get with price declines before Florida will.
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
I love how almost everyone is cheering on a home crash.. I think this shows that there is a great imbalance of greedy investors and decent people who just want an affordable place to live. The tide is finally turning...
And if you go on the realestate subreddit on Reddit and the FOMO bros are still gonna attack you if you so much as suggest a correction, much less a crash.
Supply and demand. Part of the issue is that even if you refuse to buy at a certain price point, with our current immigration policy, its not hard for wealthy foreigners to swoop in and buy out. The causality of high prices involves way more than just some "greedy investors", its a whole swath of factors which is cranking up the price of just about everything.
A crash would be great for investors. It’s a buying opportunity. The bigger the crash, the bigger the opportunity. The people with access to capital will… capitalize.
@@deuswulf6193 Yep, but everything works in cycles as history has proven many times in the past. What goes up, must come down.
@@nickthinks1 You are very right, but regardless most people are currently priced out of affording a decent home and this needs to change.
~40% cut from current hyped/artificially inflated value is not a crash but just correction
Perfectly put
Unfortunately it's not a 40% decrease in property asking prices. It's 40% of properties have reduced the price. He doesn't say how much. Austin is still seeing 20% price increases YOY, $500 to $1000 per sq.ft. depending on the location.
@@Tbell550 Watching the listings every day, I am seeing daily cuts..huge cuts...$10K to $20K on a, say, $400,000 house. So yeah, there are many cuts, weekly on some houses less than $500K, at $10K a whack, for5 or 6 weeks in a row.
@@jobiet That is a significant price drop. But, still in the 5-10% range on homes that may be asking 20% over market value. Supply is lagging demand and materials and labor costs are going up due to inflation. Buyer are still waiving inspections with no appraisal because they're paying cash. And, we haven't seen the inflow from all the big tech companies moving in yet.
@@davidward8468 pun intended?
Home prices have increased at a greater rate than people’s salary, homes have become unaffordable
Thank your federal money printer.
Homes are affordable until interest rates rise. Then they'll be unaffordable. Thousands of houses are selling every month to average people. Nothing has changed (yet).
@@pauluttermohlen318 But ordinary people have broken the 25% rule to get into homes, leaving them married to their house and stretching. The budget thin
If they are unaffordable why are there record sales?
@@bluesbrother2383 people are sucked in by the hype., and getting themselves over extended, we’re not headed for a crash, but a correction is definitely in the future
Something to keep in mind: Home prices for the markets experiencing increases in price cuts are still significantly higher than markets that are experiencing declines in price cuts. In other words. Home prices in markets with decreases in price cuts may NEVER equal the prices in markets with increases in price cuts, no matter how severe the real estate market crash. For example: Prices for homes in Florida will NEVER reach the price levels of homes in California.
@Ann Hanover I'm from the SF Bay Area. I know the insane real estate prices in Cali.
I can't listen to this guy... Zillow estimates is his key indicator.... Lost me right away
Man, you did call this several months ago. It's so cool to watch it turn in real time. I'm in S. FL sitting it out. Your analyses have helped reduce my anxiety to do deals. Thank you. 🙏
Are you a flipper?
Markets on my watch list:
Ohio-price declines
Arizona-price declines
Alabama-price declines
Florida-selling like hot cakes
Irvine, CA-over asking
In the panhandle of FL and houses are insane right now. No inventory few rentals and the market is way over inflated. Lots of investment buying for vacation and air B&B. I think I’m going to hold off investing on anything till our market levels out. The area is a great rental area especially for 1-2 yr leases or even if you have that costal VBRO!
@@samandress4573 Unless Florida changes its no state income tax policy, the market will continue to be hot and it is definitely not overinflated. Many high income earners that work from home are buying and moving to Florida because of it doesn't have state income tax. That drives the prices up.
I live in Irvine and have for 10 years. It's insane. Not only is everything August over $1mil, a lot of homes have HOA, melo roos.
Yeah, what’s happening with Irvine?!
Irvine lol 😂
As a home owner, a price increase is bad unless you have a loan and can sell to come out ahead (and can move some place!). These inflated prices just mean your taxes will be higher.
That's a very interesting, perspective! Appreciation = property tax increases, and no realized gains when having to pay for a new home.
And unless you downsize when selling (assuming you’re buying the next hm), the commiserate market appreciation just widens the gap on the premium paid to move.
Ex. In searching market, my small 1200sqft hm is worth an extra $40-50k than when bought some time ago. However, the 3000-4000sqft hm’s in area we’re looking at are up $80-100k since covid. Moving would be far more affordable without the appreciation in my area.
You are correct if you live in the home. As an investor, growth is a net positive because rent will increase faster than property tax.
So absolutely true. Just before the old bubble I refinanced to a lower rate, but within a year my payment had crept back up again because the house was considered "more valuable" and the taxes went up. It is "paper worth" unless you decide to actually cut and run... but you have to run far because selling in that market means I just need to buy an overpriced house or downsize.
OR... sit tight, ride it out, and chuckle as those top priced houses lose 50% value, as does mine, but I am still in the black because I never moved.
@@ReventureConsulting only real estate investors are profiting off this b.s and they’re the ones causing it
Maybe we need a law not allowing adults to own more than one pre built home
If the investors really wana be moguls they should build new ones instead of making it impossible for normal couples to raise a family
You were right about Boise being the first market to crash! Way to go!
Thank you!
I thought he said cities in Utah would be the first to crash, like St. George, Ogden and Provo?
The median sales price of single-family homes in the Boise housing market was $354,900, up 20.31 percent from last year. House prices in Ada County rose 15.33 percent to a record of $363,000. The median sales price of a single-family home made a record-setting of $365,645 in March 2020, a year-over-year increase of 8%. < THIS IS NOT A CRASH. I can see a lot of naive real estate newbies here.
@ChopperPopper nice I would be on the side of buying property to live in. Just want to get the very best bang for my bucks so to speak. Not really interested in over paying for home which isn't even worth the over price sticker stuck to it by those greedy individuals looking to make extra off me. An if I needed to sell n go elsewhere I wouldn't recover what I put into home so I think I have to get my money worth in any property...and the excess would go towards other services etc and home needs...barring the soft commission realtors are entitled potentially..everyone gotta eat not jersey folks round my thoughts lol
@@ReventureConsulting yea, that was a good call. Well done
When determining the value of a house, I use sales comps. Zillow’s estimates often are ridiculous.
Zillow is a joke. Zillow has an interest in inflating prices in my opinion.
Zillow has been committing fraud. Don't use that site for prices
Zillow needs to be federally indicted for market manipulation!
Zillow has been buying up houses and flipping them.
Yes, ALWAYS look at good comps before you price to sell.
It's going to be interesting to see the stubborn sellers thinking they can still command whatever they want. Been watching a few properties that have been on the market for 2 to 3 months now, which means it didn't even sell at the end of July and August which I think was the peak. And they still aren't cutting the price. They are going to be very disappointed too.
It is a sellers market...and will be for two more years. Not till the fed rates are up near 10% will you see this market break.
@@speedomars yea...im ganna disagree on this one. Seeing prices already dropping more and have been the past couple months or so really does indicate a change. And there are other factors as well. Also just because we are In a sellers market right now doesn't mean the seller can ask and get whatever they want. But to hit a bottom will def take 2 to 3 years
@@speedomars I know so many "seasoned" real estate investors that have made multiple mistakes throughout the years. By the time you get the "broad market" information of 2 years it's all ready too late. The same reason many believe that things will just keep going up, because of the last couple of years information. It's a significant lagging factor. I appreciate you worried about my investments though. No need to worry though my friend. At least not for myself. Cheers and happy hunting!
@ChopperPopper I agree, probably just another realtor or greedy investor hoping to make good profits and unable to face the inevitable. Probably bought high and hoping to sell higher.. Lol
@@speedomars This video is very selective with the data source (Zillow and perceived value) and how it was presented. If you look at Redfin data for SLC and ID Markets Median sale price has not come down at all. SLC shows 488K for median sales price in Aug an all-time high. Bosie shows 480k a all-time high. At the same time it shows price drops on listings at an all-time high but price drops doesn't mean homes are selling for less just that people are listing too high.
Amazing. I was planning to buy in Boise this Spring, graduated from Boise State 4 years ago and have seen the exponential growth. Decided to hold off by the time July/August rolled around because I saw a few videos of yours and looked at prices closely. Things have cooled off DRASTICALLY and about 30% of the houses are up for over a month which was unheard of last year. Price cuts on almost half of the houses. I could see another 20% correction in the next year and will take advantage of the perfect home at that time!
You've waited this long, save some more money and wait a little longer. You'll be glad you did.
So I left solo to florida 2 weeks ago. I found a house I liked. But after a deep inspection, the home had structural damage. The inspector told me thousands of homes in Florida are pledged with termites, mold and endless home settling not to mention central and northern florida have phosphate mining. I packed my stuff and left back to Colorado. Thanks but no thanks.
Thanks for the comment! I wonder what many of today's "no inspection" buyers will do when they find out their home has termites in a year.
Welcome to a warm/humid climate. How is any of that surprising?
What part of Colorado?
@@julio1982 denver
Dude I am your biggest fan. Your analysis and the way to look at the data is riveting. I learn new things every time. Keep up the good work.
I concur with this sentiment!! Great work 🙌
I have been a real estate investor for the last 15 plus years. I follow the industry very closely and you nailed everything in this video. Great job man. You got my sub👍
Sold my investment property in July for 467k, the buyer relisted it for 483k and then dropped the price down 2 days ago to 465. Apparently there wasn't as much demands as they thought there would be
I hate flippers .... I hope they lose money .... all because of greed !
Hi, I am wonder why Dallas was not mentioned? What would be your advise?
I talked to my mortgage broker in Florida yesterday about the hot market, can't find anything to buy... She told me a lot of big companies are buying houses, real estate properties in Florida. Cash offers.. can't compete with them. I also read that those companies buy those properties to keep them some to flip them, but they can't flip them because they can't find any workers to renovate the houses . So it's all in stand by for now
Waiting in Fort Lauderdale… thx for the info
And finding workers in FL was a problem BEFORE the pandemic.
If your a multi family buyer everyday/ anyday is a good time to buy. Know your reasoning. Mine is for cash flow. None of this effects cashflow so you buy today
Austin may be vulnerable because of the notoriously high property tax rates in Texas. No, Texas doesn’t have state income tax but they compensate with property taxes. You gotta look at the total payment, which includes property taxes.
Really I wasn't aware of this thank you. So do think it would be wise to purchase there in the state of Texas ? Not just within Austin area where he states cuts are currently..🤔
Property tax in austin texas on a $1M house is $20k a year minimum.
You have an excellent point. I don't believe alot of people who bought homes during the crazy times this summer realize just how high property taxes are in Texas.
@@vprince9907 maybe if ur living there and just want ur own place. As a investment those taxes will kill you.
Prop taxes wouldn't need to be so high if the state actually funded rural schools. Instead the Robin Hood laws in Texas mandate that excess tax money that exceeds local school budgets get sent to the state for redistribution (socialism) to the poorer rural areas. Yes, Texas loves socialism when it comes to punishing city folk.
We are selling in Portland, Or and moving to Charleston, SC. Thanks to you we will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for things to calm down in SC.
let's hope people don't also wait on the sidelines when it comes to purchasing your OR home. good luck with that!
So how's market there in Portland, Oregon ? Is it worth the move and sale of your present property 🤔 ?
Nick’s map shows that Portland is about neutral or slightly down on price reductions in the Portland area. I think our timing for selling is good but not perfect. My friend just sold his house in 4 days for $10k above asking price.
Hopefully, you're not a liberal. OR is fucked up. Don't fuck up SC!
@@Hello-rl6lp 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Las Vegas \ Henderson MLS has LOTS of $10,000, $50,000 some $100,000 - $200,000 PRICE REDUCTIONS !!! ALL Zillow-owned homes have price reductions and lots of them are listed under Zillows purchase price.
Where are u seeing this?
LOCAL LAS VEGAS & HENDERSON MLS!!! If you’re a seller better hurry and list, a buyer better wait because the market has a way to go down…. I predict 3 - 6 months before it’s buy time at discounted prices instead of the overinflated ones now.
@@RubenGarmyn ok but u made it sound like the prices were already going down in ur first post. I'm wanting to buy in vegas but the prices are ridiculous with no sign of going down.
@@ericzee6506 I have a Redrock condo I am contemplating selling and just had a realtor look at it. Was going to sell as is in this market and the realtor said I should put new carpet stainless etc and sell in couple months as market was not softening yet and he thinks my condo zillow offered $255K for will go for $280K, a smaller one next door is listed $265 so we will see. GL!
Nice houses in good areas in Las Vegas/ Henderson are still selling very fast! Reductions are only for those homes that were ridiculously overpriced in the first place or in undesirable conditions.
Been sitting here with 60k in bank and about 30k I'm willing to take out of 401k for first house. This is good to hear and see. I'm still cautious to buy anytime soon.
Was Zillow accurate the first time? Yes many area's have inflated for no reason, but I am curious to know how accurate Zillow could have been initially.
I know lol why is this guy using zillio estimate to prove market crash has started lol
@@kokake and you can find specific properties on Zillow where the zestimate is just incorrect, probably like the 2 he had used as examples. If you list below the zestimate Zillow automatically makes the zestimate closer to the list price.
Which site is better to search for homes?
@@Sam-um2ci any direct MLS portal. Do you want to look at a local MLS site for the best up-to-date local information. You probably know 30 people with a real estate license, have them set you up on a feed to search your desired area
He called Boise a few months ago, good job
Price cuts alone don’t prove a crash. People were listing at absurd prices. He should show us what things are actually selling for compared to last year.
That’s not exactly a “call”. When everyone knows that Boise had the highest appreciation it’s easy to say Boise will also have or be the first to depreciate. Especially in this way.
Same thing happens in the stock market.
Ask anyone.
So something sold for $10 last week, that is listed for $13 today, price cut to $11 and sells at $10.50-11 is a crash?
This is exactly what we are seeing in my area right now. Lots of sellers asking huge prices, lowering when it doesn’t sell, but selling prices still up overall.
Bingo. Same in my area too. Sales prices are a better indication of market crashes, not price cuts. Home are still selling for ridiculous amounts in the DMV area regardless of a price reduction of a couple thousand dollars.
Housing markets don't crash overnight like the stock market. Who knows if it will crash but just keep that in mind.
I’ve noticed that a lot of houses I saved on Zillow have been taken off the market recently, but not because they were sold. I have my suspicions, but what is your opinion about that?
I've noticed this as well.
According to the Shiller index, U.S. housing prices peaked in 2006 and kept falling all the way until 2012.
If someone wants to buy a home in SoCal to be used as a primary residence, will the buyer potentially have to wait five or six years for prices to bottom out after the next U.S. housing crash starts?
Will it better to invest the down payment for the house in the stock market ONLY AFTER stocks crash and bottom out much faster (perhaps within months) and then to buy a home years later when home prices are bottoming out?
Yes, unless people don't mind paying more than the house is worth. If you wait a few years your housing payment would be much lower. I would buy once the prices bottom and start to go up again.
@@angellight5040You would wait maybe five or six years to buy a house, even if you had to pay high rent during the long wait? What would you do with your cash during the wait and high inflation?
Not in my area. North Texas you wont find a house, and if you do, you better come in hot because it will get yanked from you quick. Fastest growing area in the nation. We do not participate in recessions and such.
significant price decreases in the Philly suburbs, and realtors are being sneaky and deleting the entire property from zillow. then they re-list and it has no property history, to mask the price cuts. it's so shady.
When QE ends and mortgage availability/rates deteriorate, you are going to see prices drop like a stone. I Do think the Federal government will offer support for owner occupied homes. Investors that have to sell will be S.O.L.
Wait until they stop printing money and people have to get a job. The low interest rate let's houses inflate 20 to 30 percent. Wait until this fabricated cost increase is not rolled into the loan. When interest rates finally get some normalcy, house prices will drop.
Don't bet on it. There are fewer and fewer people that are qualifying for prime rates. That's what happens when you do not work and overload your credit cards.
Alternate title: "TOLD YA SO!"
😉😅🤣😅
I’ve been watching Idaho super close as we want to buy property in Rexburg. A duplex that we offered on a few weeks ago has dropped $110k in value in 2 months and still hasn’t sold. It’s fallen out of contract twice while we’ve been watching it. I’m curious to hear your thoughts on if you think things will return to pre-covid levels or if we are taking a further nose dive. Love your content! Thanks for your hard work!
Keep waiting it’s gonna keep falling slowly for years
Wow. That’s a massive decrease. Hopefully you lockdown a sweet deal
You def should keep waiting. It’s gone up A TON in the last couple years. I lived in meridian 3 yrs ago and can’t believe my eyes when I see the current prices.
Never catch a falling knife 🔪. You’ve been warned.
Wow that’s a huge drop in price
Zestimate is not an accurate picture of value, especially in non-disclosure states like Texas. How much have you factored seasonality into your analysis? I think we are seeing a correction but I think your numbers are a bit ambitious.
Thanks for the comment, Cole! Agreed that the Zestimate isn't perfect. However, that doesn't stop home owners from checking them like their stock portfolio.
Z estimate is complete BS. My home was estimated at 435k, I sold it for 467k and the estimate jumped to 475k. The buyer relisted it with no improvements for 483k and the estimate went to 491k. The price was reduced to 465k and the estimate went down to 469k.
Really hate the inflation of homes and the greediness of agents
Which site do home buyers need to look at?
@@Mac_Raymond I wonder if it has to do with the word "estimate" 🤔
Boise and Spo-CAN may have had huge price increases in housing but look at what companies pay there. Very low wages. Gonna be a very big crash in those two markets when mom and dad's can't pay the mortgage with the $12 an hour job they moved to.
Thanks for the comment! Great point about the relatively low wages in those markets. Makes the housing markets unstable@
Zillow estimates are not actual value estimates. I'm sure you know that as a real estate investor. Why not show actual closed sales data (the only data that actually matters) before you call the big crash?
Savoy is correct! Zillow numbers are (cough, cough) interesting. Local markets are very difficultly when they are only a short distance away.
Because that data is still up, lol.
@@Minecraft_mast imagine if real estate prices suddenly plunged 50% today which we know is impossible but … imagine the feeding frenzy that would occur. Prices would, again, go through the roof.
Yeah the listing price cuts here only drive more people to see the house and often times the place gets over bid by 30% above asking price. So there's really no discount to be had.
@@savoy6 if prices plunged 50% I would liquidate, leverage everything I could to the hilt and buy, buy, buy!!!
But you are right, not happening. Even a 15% drop would bring many out of the woodwork.
San deigo house prices?shall I buy now or later on?
Define a housing crash. On the ground in Boise. There are certainly a lot of price decreases but that was inevitable. It’s not so much the amount of price reductions we are seeing that matters given the historical price context. The data that matters more to a “crash” would be price reduction relative to original asking price in $ amounts.
Houses are still in very high demand (although admittedly not what it was 9 months ago) but I would argue that Boise is not in the middle of a crash.
Also, the historical data cannot take into account the current politics. The covid policies have driven people born and raised in WA, OR, and CA to idaho and other states. Their attitude is that they are never returning to their homeland. Covid was the straw that broke the camels back for many. I don’t see that demand changing based on school/mask policies. Remote working and the changing dynamic is also a big factor that historical data can’t take into account.
a majority of viewers here seem to think "normalization" means a "crash". A lot of people are going to be SOL when prices plateau while rates rise, meaning they're going to be paying higher monthlies anyways but with a lower purchase price. For some reason everyone thinks the latter is a better deal.
What matters to call a crash……. Actual sale prices.
Are sale prices still up yoy?
Are there lots of New constructions in Boise ???????
@@reptar1 Assuming prices ONLY PLATEAU, even then, that strategy could offer better choice of inventory, better economic outlook, better loan acceptance and that strategy could be wise. maybe that’s because rates can go down again and you can refi the flat or even lower purchase price. But if you already purchase at a high price with historically low prices you will never refi at a lower rate AND your higher price is locked in. This is just another reason the wealthy buy real estate at market price dips, refi or borrows with a HELOC when the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy and then they rinse and repeat. Happened in the 70s, 80s, 01’, 07’ …..
@@boulderghost4457 of course. Valid possibility. But isn’t that what all of this is? Trying to guess which possibility is eventually true? My point is that for most people that are throwing away rent for x number of months/years praying for a dip may never see the right market that they’re looking for. Timing the market (bottom) is a fools game and yet everything believes that singular outcome is what’s going to happen.
Nick is really gaining subscribers , as he should. I have been watching him for a year. And forwarding his videos to people I care about. He works hard and it’s nice to see him grow. I am a 40 year experienced real estate investor in phoenix. Nick is still 400 k subscribers behind “ Bailey the golden retriever “ but more people would like to see a funny feel good video, than real estate. Real estate is work ! Dogs are not mans best friend by accident!
This guy is a click-baiter and wrong. If you follow his advise you will leave money on the table.
Just sold my house in Nashville ($76k above asking and cash) and moving to Atlanta. I’ve seen quite a few price cuts in ATL. What is the estimated time in ATL before we may see lower home values?
Great question! I think we still have a bit of time in the southeast in general, as well as Atlanta.
Smart move
Still asking…. When should we see the market fall out?
How about Atlanta. I do not see price correction yet.
Starting to see price cuts in MD, but sellers were also listing very over the "zestimate". Prices have gone up 20-25% since Feb 2020. Especially the lower parts of MD that are close to DC.
Exactly. Price cuts in that area i am seeing are about 10-25K, but a LOT of these homes are overvalued to begin with or need $80-$100k of work. So a lot of these price cuts, while a good start, are still bullshit!
It's also important to check the condition of the property. If the property is totally renovated, it will be gone within the first week of showings. The price cuts I see are houses in weird lots or need work condition
Agreed - same in my market. And even 45 minutes out of the city in more ruralish areas. Homes are still going very quick especially renovated. Technically my area in NC is still fairly affordable. Below national median average.
Please add Virginia market also
I just sold my rental property just in time. It was listed for $210,000 and sold for $208,000. Sold/settled within 45 days.
We are going to see a huge surge in buyer remorse. Always stupid to buy when real estate prices are rising rapidly - unless you have no other choice and plan on holding for 10years.
How do we know when I particular market is bottoming out
As always. Great information. I remember a couple of month ago when you said in a video that Boise, ID is the NO 1 when it comes to a crash. And here we are. Well done.
What is the date of this video?
I have been tracking listings in Riverside Ca and Moreno Valley CA for the last month and active listings have increased roughly 10% and 20% respectively over the past 3 weeks.
I am planning to buy in that area also. Near temecula; murrietta or san bernandino. But the prices of the houses are ridiculous.
Yup me too. I am going to still wait even though you said it went up even higher. My credit can still be improved and I can still continue to save and see what happens by 2022
where can I get a copy of the report that shows Boise has the most price cuts?
Head to the Realtor.com data page and download 'Weekly Inventory Data' at Metro Level. www.realtor.com/research/data/
As someone looking to move in two to three years all i can say is YES YES YES
You ain't moving nowhere
I am curious about North Idaho and if there is a housing bubble happening there.
There were a lot of studies that starting coming out a couple of months ago very publicly which showed that Boise real-estate was way overvalued. That was also around the beginning of the downturn. Your videos give me the motivation to wait even longer for the crash back to Earth to happen!
What are your thoughts on the housing market in South Dakota.
You called Boise a couple of months ago if I'm not mistaken. Great analysis!
There is an Austin realtor that comes up on my feed that uses a bunch of short term info to dispute what is actually happening.
Tried to get my wife motivated to sell in Tampa. Looks like there is a bit of time left here...might still win that battle.
What’s your opinion on the Atlanta market?
Please let me know about metro Atlanta
Thanks for the suggestion! Will be doing an ATL video in the near future.
Athens is cheap just east of Atlanta
Athens is great and working its way into metro Atlanta..vie development in Gwinett and Barrow County..Winder about half way between Atlanata and Athens is expanding like crazy.
Love your videos, so informative and easily understood. We are retirees and thinking of moving to Savannah as Charleston is too expensive. What are your thoughts?
Utah's market is ever growing.. No crash happening here! You have to look at more data than just Zillow price decreases. If you rely on Zillow for your valuations, you're very misinformed.. Inventory is still at record lows as well as interest rates. Buying activity is still very high. I've had multiple homes in the last few weeks that have sold for WAY over asking price! It will be a hot minute before we see any type of decrease, let alone a "crash" here in Utah!
I too am in Utah and agree 100%. I am in Park City which is insane! I wanted to buy a property that was 2.2 million and was bought 12 months ago for 1 million. It's under contract already for 2.2 million!
This is promising, would be even more promising if actual sales prices followed suit
Can you address the price cuts in Vero Beach, Florida.
Quick note: amount of price cuts (quantity of listings that are dropping pricing) is a great metric. However, knowing the average percentage of total list price on average that these houses are dropping by would be more accurate, and informative. If they are pulling more permits, and have overbuilt, there may be a good chance that large developments are being cut down on list price for new builds. Probably tough to grab unless you’re running a scraping service on top of the API data you’re getting from realtor or Zillow.
E.g.: 10k average or 2.5% of total list price price cut or are people price cutting $1k to get notifications sent to everyone’s phones that a property they favorited had a cut in price? I’ve seen this tactic used by listing Real estate agents a lot in PHX.
Also, I’m curious what effect seasonality has on markets like Boise. In markets that experience winter, if you’re selling your house around that time, not as many buyers usually as kids are in school again, people don’t like moving in the snow. What are the average price changes as a percentage of list price during the fall and winter seasons? Time on market averages? All of these would help give a more solid view compared to spring/summer price jumps.
This is 4 months later and I’m seeing huge price cuts in my area. One example is a house that was listed for $360k in the summer of 2021. It’s now winter 2022 and the house is still sitting. The seller dropped the price several times and it’s now selling for $290k and it’s still sitting. I’m seeing price cuts more frequently.
Deflation is interesting. It's difficult to fight deflation because buyers will delay with the expectation that prices will fall even more. It's why we have these crashes. Obviously the Fed and the banksters are at fault for creating this problem.
I'm sure it was planned. Probably these politicians have some conflict of interest
Thanks for sharing the data. Live in VA outside DC. Sold in August. Surprised to see prices dip as the area during my lifetime has seemed to stand outside of so many market drops. Sorry for those who are experiencing the pain, happy from the perspective of one who likes to see prices reflect actual income. This area is still ridiculously overpriced for us worker bees.
Hmmm. Job growth and inward migration in Boise and Spokane. The two don't compare - jobs etc. Correct?
Good question! Job growth and migration levels tend to be highly correlated, except for in retirement areas (parts of FL/AZ, e.g.) where the migrants don't tend to work.
I'm wondering when "The OC" will crash. It's a bubble of overpriced homes surrounded by crashing counties. Tract homes built in the 50s and 60s are on the market for as much as $1M. Real estate agents are still saying, "Be realistic, buy now. The crash may never happen." Sigh.
Thanks for the comment! It's interesting how LA/OC-area realtors are so confident in the sustainability of the market. 10 out of the last 30 years across the metro home prices have gone down.
The problem with "The OC" is the amount of outside money being pumped into it. I'm definitely one of the causes to that problem because I moved here from out of state to be close to the ocean with lots of great weather. Buying a home in a beach town wasn't too big of an issue for me. It was more than I wanted to spend, but I spent it because I could. Many others in my town are much the same way too. We made money in other cities like Boston, NY, & Philadelphia - got sick of the weather and decided to move to California. You also see that with people from China picking Orange County because of Irvine and the great school system there. So I'm not sure OC will ever truly come crashing down like other counties in southern California unfortunately.
What do you think about Plano/Allen Texas?
Yes finally, now I’m waiting for it to happen in Florida
I hope it takes a little longer I have 8 more months to save 11k more for a house
I don’t believe it will happen here. Too many are watching our market waiting to pounce especially in Tampa
@@musicpro7278 how much are you saving for your down payment? I was told it’s supposed to be 10% of your mortgage.
@@octoberboiy yea it is but I'm thinking about putting 30k down on a 300-350k house
@@musicpro7278 good luck with saving on a down payment. I’m on the same boat
How about Tennessee Murfreesboro crashing or not ? can u tell me please.Thanks
Too bad I live in Miami. This place is just growing and there are plenty of jobs and business moving here. What do you think??
@@johndemario8173 Agreed. here apartment buildings with shops on the main floor have shot up.
How’s Cape Coral FL and San Antonio TX?
I noticed though the listings in these homes in my area begin ridiculously high almost on purpose and then price cut a week later. Almost trying to fool people
A Question: If one sells their house for a premium in the current market and then buys another during this seller's market...does it not work out "even" in the end. What am I missing?
The single family DETACHED market is a separate market from the multi-family market.
I prefer lebensraum (living space) and not living like sardines in a can.
Do you ever publish these dashboards?
I do to Reventure Channel Members!
Zillow allows sellers to drop the price by a dollar…. Now it’s. A new listing with a dollar off
Thanks for the comment! Agreed that there are probably some "fake" price cuts in there. But if you take a look around most are substantial.
Zillow themselves are selling houses at a loss. Look at the listings, you'll see Zillow as a buyer and price reductions to a price lower than their buying price.
Home Prices dropping in north Dallas new build?
That's a great question! I'm not sure on that level of specifics. Dallas a whole still isn't seeing too many price cuts.
About half of the listings in the Boise Metro have price cuts.
I can't wait to see the slumlords scramble like cockroaches once the feds raise rates!!! LOL!!!
you know that's a lie, I'm looking at it right now. Like 10-15% of them do. Only 500 total listings up to $600,000. They went from having 5-7 homes with price cuts to now having 75 out of 500 homes. You are a liar and so is this video. Also, the homes are listed 30k over the value. Is 10k off of 30k over the value really a deal? aren't they still getting more than its worth? You big dumb
The median sales price of single-family homes in the Boise housing market was $354,900, up 20.31 percent from last year. House prices in Ada County rose 15.33 percent to a record of $363,000. The median sales price of a single-family home made a record-setting of $365,645 in March 2020, a year-over-year increase of 8%. If you sit on the sidelines you will continue to lose money in this market. Fall and winter are NORMAL stalls in the real estate market due to kids in school and no one wanted to relo.
@@speedomars your figures are off. Boise was over 480k median home price this year and nampa was over 450k. The price reductions aren't quite as big as this video implies, but its a start, at least. I live in Nampa and missed the boat on the housing market here. I've been renting and biding my time for the next crash. I hope this is only the beginning of it.
@@Brandon_Nelson92 You might be waiting for awhile. The flight out of certain states, such as California, especially with the direction the political landscape is going, will ensure certain states and locations have a low supply with high demand. Add desperation into the mix and don't be surprised to see prices going up.
Do you consider ridiculous original asking prices into the price cut analysis? Here in Tampa, FL we’re seeing homes sit on the market for a few months then sellers cut prices and they’re gone. Mainly due to sellers asking way over appraisal value from the jump.
Great job. It's just as you have been predicting.
the rental house we moved out of so owner could sell, listed at $499k, Central Calif. a month or so ago. Reduced by 20k this week.
What city?
They need to reduce it another 100000 that’s one hundred thousand
@@jennyd5728 Los Banos
@@donboyce2941 having lived in it, it needs 100k in remodeling. 325k would be worth it. Great neighborhood.
Please use rations when you say the “decline in the number of”
Number of price cuts will fluctuate with the number of new listings.
I’d be more interested in cuts per listings.
Ratios, not rations. But maybe it was your autocorrect
Percent increase in number of listings that have a price cut is basically a garbage statistic on its own. First, as mentioned, it isn’t normalized for total number of listings. Second, it’s a percent increase. If the number of price cuts a year ago was very low, we could see a huge percent increase and still have a very low level. Third, this is based on the comparison to the initial listing price. If listing prices are going up as sellers realize that everything is going for over asking, eventually sellers will start setting listing prices too high. Selling prices might still be going up, but just not as fast as initial listing prices. Lots of better statistics could have been included in this video, but weren’t. It makes me suspect that this is intended to drive prices down more than give honest analysis.
@@samuelrussell5760 fully agree! Statistic is not just to look at the charts, statistic is a science and needs much deeper analyzing to be done. More later. The world circumstances should be involved in the consideration like energy crisis, material prices and shortage going on from China etc. so i would say this analysts would not be considered as full and entirely correct. I am certifies business Consulter and realtor in South Florida. Seems our market is overheated with the prices but actually it is not , inventory is very low and there is not any reason why prices could go down again because no massive new construction of single family houses is going on again because of shortage in materials etc. look whats going on in China and it will and already does effect the entire world.
Thts because there is no crash it's going up
What if you got a loan contract but the home isn’t built yet. How do we get ahead of this
I can say for Virginia Beach the reason it is so high on this list is the Military froze PCS(moving) last year so there was no inventory from moving sailors. So now there are lots of sailors moving around and its a rush to sell their houses. Same thing is happening in places like San Diego but they are much bigger markets and can suck up that inventory easier.
Thank you for the comment, Chris! That's very interesting.
Appreciate the insight
South East where is the where is that place thank you Nick
You are picking one property to represent a large market. You are also making the assumption that Zillow Estimate is accurate. I appreciate the argument. Just not convinced your data supports this.
even Zillow's own chart you can see they INFLATED the price for a 50% just in one year (the one in Salt Lake had an average of 350-400k for years, and suddenly they ask 600k in less than a year?? It is ridiculous to call this a crash........a crash happens when there is no demand for an over-extended amount of offers.......makes no sense what he first say "there are still a LOT of people trying to buy their first house".......back in 2008 people were buying houses they didn't needed as investments (as The Big Short showed, a hooker had 5 condos and 2 houses), that means when there was no real interest in buying houses to live......here he claims the demand exist, but the prices are dropping.......but they are dropping because they were over/inflated by greedy real estate companies.
San deigo house prices?
Zillow’s estimate is the biggest joke, I saw house in my neighborhood that was accidentally listed with an extra zero..like 5 million instead of 500,000...Zillow’s estimate was magically around 5.1 million 🤣🤣
Haha! That's a great anecdote. Thanks!
That depends in what market you are in...
I saw a Zilliow property with a cardboard auction sign in the Arrow Creek subdivision in Boise, ID. It is listed by Zillow for $1M. $1M+ properties don't usually use cheap auction signs in normal healthy markets IMO.
Thanks for the observation! That's crazy.
I didn't know Zillow offers was buying in Boise.
You only see the good signs on homes over 2 million lol.
Thoughts on york county sc ? Specifically rock hill
Another great video! Love your graphs and charts! Renting right now is North Dallas. I hope prices go down some by next summer.
Thank you for the comment HD! Glad you enjoyed the video. I think things will be a much better buying situation in Dallas by next year.
What about the New York area?
I am so glad I found your content, we are first time homebuyers in the Sarasota area of Florida and patiently waiting for the correction. Your content gives me confidence that we are making the right choice. The price cuts are just barely starting here but inventory is still very low.
Give it time. Remember 2008? all the forclosures. If evergrande topples the ripple will tsunami the world. Companies like backwater are tied in deep with them dont believe them that it's just china. Good things come to those to wait.
Doubt it. Just heard people at dinner saying friends are moving down to escape vax mandates. If they steal the election from DeSantis, then maybe.
I live in Sarasota too and my daughters trying to buy her first home but she keeps getting beat buy people moving here from other states with cash offering higher than what house is asking price. It’s so discouraging cause our kids that grew up here can’t afford to live here.
Chances are this guy could be very wrong on his crystal ball prediction. Nobody knows when a crash is coming. don't believe anyone that promises something they don't know lol
Prices went up due to money being printed and pumped. If the Dems get their 3.5 T passed, then you better buy what you can... BUT.... keep in mind the property taxes may force you out of your home unless your wages goes up with inflation.
Rent in Bellevue, WA just keeps on increasing. It has increased around 20-30% since past 6 months.
Great video! Would love to see you make a video about Illinois housing market.
What about Portland Oregon and the rest of the state?
Don't ever listen to realtors, they'll always tell you the best time to buy is right now.
Home prices are based on the cost of replacement. There's no way that's going down in most places, especially considering supply issues and the increasing cost of labor and artificial cost increase due to poor tax/ regulation policies pushed by democrats. This is fool's gold.
I got realtor friends like this. They keep telling people nows the perfect time to buy and how everyone’s doing it. Seems odd how despite everyone buying right now they’re up selling on their friends to buy now
@@machetekid07 No disrespect to your friends, but it's because realtors are scumbags; their job is literally useless.
@@starmc26 he deserves it to be honest. He always brags his money and how he pays no taxes because of the state he’s in. They’re just salesmen and profit off convincing people
To buy a home, even if they shouldn’t lol
@@machetekid07 "They"... (the national association of Realtors) ...all band together to manipulate the market and keep it as high as possible, so they can make the most money, always.
I am happy about this because I am looking to buy a home but because of the crazy market I decided to wait, the homes are literally pending sale the second day on the market...
Im currently looking in the Denver area, would love your analysis of this market. Its been insane, and wondering if I should wait it out.
I second this!!
I remember back in 2015 Homes in Aurora, CO where going to for under $120k with missing windows and doors and I laughed. Greedy investors bought them all up and now they are going for $450k and upward! Ridiculous, I say skip Denver altogether. I lived there for 12 years, but realize I can never go back no matter how badly I want to.
Hey Chris, I am a local realtor in Denver. We are seeing some price cuts but it doesn't tell the whole story. Homes that are move in ready and priced right are still getting multiple offers and often over asking price. Denver is not a boom bust market I have lived in Colorado my whole life. I would vote if you plan on staying for at least 5 years you start looking if you are ready. PM me if you need local help. Good Luck
Chris, do not listen to realtors, they will tell you anything to make commissions. Denver is a massive bubble! My townhome doubled in price in less than 4 years. The smart people sold and moved on. It is way overpriced there.
@@JIMN26 Congratulations on your townhome! There are always opportunities in all markets at all times. As you have more time in an area you learn that the most successful real estate investors buy and hold over decades not one cycle. Those who have a long term mindset and can weather short term bumps will continue to profit over the long term. Long Term Thinking>Short Term Congrats again on your townhome and good luck in the future.
We live in Orangevale CA and want to move to Florida. Does that mean we need to sell now or we will lose money if we wait?
If you believe this guy then sell today and go get a rental. It's pretty simple... if you believe him.
Thanks for the comment, Stephanie! Ultimately the buy/sell decision is a personal one related to finances, family situation, and living preferences. I can't provide direct advice on that. However - the recent data seems to suggest that Sacramento area will get with price declines before Florida will.