Severe Weather Weekend for the Southeast
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- Опубликовано: 6 окт 2024
- Florida and the surrounding southeastern states are bracing for the next big El Nino storm system expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. The model data this afternoon suggests a combination of sustained winds, high surf conditions, and heavy rainfall for much of the sunshine state with the embedded possibility of some tornadoes/funnel clouds with the brewing conveyor of instability likely to travel with this cyclone as it smashes through
Hey folks! Thank you for watching the video, views are up thankfully and I appreciate the support! Unfortunately, I will be rescheduling my live stream to tomorrow at 8pm EST. I left a pinned comment on the current scheduled stream, but I need to be in bed early to wake around 0230 for my last bout of military entry processing! I do apologize, but we will have lots of good high res info to absorb together on a stream! So I look forward to seeing everyone tomorrow!
Definitely going to keep a close eye on this and sharing it to many friends of mine that keep aquarium in case of power outages.thank you for the update Nazario.
I do believe power outages will be a real possibility if this system shows signs of further intensification
@@WxCenterNazarioYes, will likely be isolated to sporadic. This will be a prolonged wind event. Strongest non tropical storm in decades.
MANY thanks from Upper Tampa Bay, WxCN, for your precise forecasting. Will try to make the LIVE tonight! I like your new Intro for the change of forecasting for the off- tropical season. NICE smooth music!
Glad you like it! And unfortunately I've moved my live stream to tomorrow! Tonight will need to be an early evening for me, waking up around 230am to make my way out to Tampa for my last bit of military processing! So we'll be back to talk high res forecast data tomorrow at 8
@WxCenterNazario That's 👍🏻 okay! Good Luck on last leg of Military stuff. Weather here has been breezy, low 70's, and humid but rain- free. It just has the 'feel' of something brewing!
The weather channel has been talking about Florida all day, usually they ignore Florida unless theres a big storm happening. Definitely need to keep watching
That’s definitely a sign! We’ll talk more tonight
Couldn't agree with you more
Time to prepare.
Hey Nazario!
Hey hey!
I just uploaded some video of the intercoastal this morning a big high and windy over here and coastal Volusia
Imma say, u the only one who gives good attention to Florida i appreciate it
It's a little baffling. I don't know why Florida is dismissed. Thank you very much for watching
Did you forget us in trinidad? We are still getting alot of rain although it's dry season
Nope not at all! When I reviewed satellite I didn’t see much activity, but this quick video was mainly meant to focus on this brewing storm system. I still cover you all out there in the entirety of the Caribbean :)
This could possibly be subtropical storm Vince if this was the same time next month, it would be Alberto. But the GFS and European model run have been trending more inland then costal. But where I live near New York, we could get Gust as high as 50 mph.
Definitely seeing the forecasted winds/wind gusts. Not entirely sold on this being a full fledged subtropical storm. Will have small windows to exploit those warmer waters but all in all this is a strong El Niño system more than anything supported by our interacting jets/temp gradient
We need the rain so bad! Let’s hope everyone stay safe!
That’s the name of the game!
My mom's brother and sister live in Okeechobee, FL (Taylor Creek) and I shared your video to em. They had no clue about this forecast. So thought I'd give em some quality info lol.
Can't say how grateful I am for sharing this video to folks who truly need the update! Still lots to digest over the next day or two before it's showtime, but I'm glad they're up to speed
@@WxCenterNazario Keep up the great work!
People should be prepared for a tropical storm like event.
Miami ? I’m worried my son is a new Captain
We’re working hard to keep you all ahead of the storm best we can
Hello my Friend are you going live today? 12/14/2023
Yes I am!!
Hi still fighting cancer we need rain here in Indiana and you gays are getting the rain that you need ! It seems that your views back almost at 6k I won't be able to watch your live today have a good night 😁
Keep fighting the good fight my friend, we’re with you in this!
I've had close family and friends fight cancer, YOU GOT THIS, CANCER IS NOTHING TO THE HUMAN BODY, keep that positive mind set and keep strong. GOD SPEED DANIEL
Thx man 😇
Thx bud 😇😇😇🤐
ALL the best, Daniel. I am praying for you every day. P.S. Also for rain in Indiana!
Nezario why is it sooooo windy in Florida today
Pressure gradient already beginning to tighten. Strong easterly winds going to remain over Florida. As our low approaches they’ll only accelerate. This could mean unpredicted trouble if they continue to sustain as they have today
@@WxCenterNazario woww, it felt like a mini hurricane today like I was walking after school and all of a sudden the winds start howling and it made my hair go bob ross on me 🤪
@@WxCenterNazario hey nezario I just watched a RUclips video saying that there could be 12+ tornadoes in the north end of lake, orange, Seminole, and valusia, and Gainesville area, could that happen, also what should I do to prep
@@isaaclogan6185 not sure on the exact count. But tornado threat is indeed rising. We’ll talk at 8pm!
State of Emergency time. This storm is expected to be equivalent to a moderate tropical storm. Coastal areas should get prepared for coastal flooding and beach erosion. Inland should prepare for flooding from rain and also isolated power outages. Winds could be 40mph or higher. Sabbath will be the day the storm arrives. Strong winds ahead of the storm and behind the storm will cause significant coastal problems. Starting with the east coast and west coast Sunday afternoon. Boating conditions will be too dangerous and no one should be swimming. Treat this like a moderate to strong tropical storm. We will be fine, but this should not be taken lightly. Especially concerned what next year may mean. Will think about that after this storm and later on.
I have a feeling this might be a textbook Blockbuster
If gfs wins the forecast game, I agree
@@WxCenterNazario If this was a True tropical system, within the scope of hurricane season. I would side with the EURO. However, given the Hybrid characteristics & time of year. the GFS may shine.
Thanks for the update here been raining in palm bay on n off really windy here.
Likely to persist thru the weekend too! May as well prep for dreary days ahead
Accuweather has been updating their article on this Florida weather event a lot of times so I am starting to think this is gonna be a "big" event.
Ready to activate chase mode. Hyped to bring you guys along as well
@@WxCenterNazario can't wait to see you storm chasing!!
I think this storm is definitely going to have subtropical characteristics.
Undoubtedly
This is not related to this storm but can a sub tropical system reach catagory 5 wind speeds?
No, subtropical storms can sometimes reach as far as what would be classified as major hurricane strength in rare instances. But nothing close to category five. We'd have to see a substantial shift in weather/climate to achieve those types of strengths, and at that point it would likely transition to a full-fledged tropical cyclone
@@WxCenterNazariodoes this also apply to extratropical cyclones
I've also been thinking that if these systems keep coming off the gulf like this one here. A similar storm system like the one in 1993 (March Superstorm) which dumped a blizzard all the way from Alabama to Maine. Could see the same type of system hit the east like that again. Waters warm enough, and the southern jet is active enough. Thanks for what you do.
I do agree. The warm sea anomalies still in place in parts of the Gulf and up the coast could help make these systems far more aggressive than the seasonal average
@@WxCenterNazario Don't mean to keep asking questions. But have you ever went back and done any research on that March 1993 Superstorm? I live in northwest Alabama and I was 15 years old at the time. But we only received roughly 4" of snow. But the windchill, the winds themselves were a massive problem. Literally a blizzard we dealt with. Birmingham got like a foot of snow, and I believe one of the peaks of the Smokey mountains in Tennessee and North Carolina received like 50" of snow or more. Anyway, thanks for replying and hope you have a great Christmas.
@@MetallicAAlabamA it’s no problem! Ask anything you’d like! Haven’t had an opportunity to go back and research but perhaps it’s time I do with all the ruckus this current system is stirring up
👍🏻
Nazario, Tropical Storm Risk released their outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, I just wanted to bring that up. TSR says in their prediction the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be active and they mentioned the record warm sea surface temperatures.
Going to make a note of this and bring it up to discuss for our live stream. Rescheduled to tomorrow evening
But there’s not there’s not enough cape which is the fuel so idk if they are going to issue a slight 15% percent but I do think a marginal
In their eyes maybe, but I've been seeing varying values between 600-1500 for both SB and ML Cape. So I'm definitely projecting a likelihood of severe activity