The Game Of Lies
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- Опубликовано: 26 окт 2020
- Your mind is efficient and amazing. It also conspires to ruin your life almost every time you encounter new information. You’re lying to yourself, and you can’t help it.
All the cognitive habits, capabilities, and shortcuts your brain brings to the table also come with serious liabilities… like leading you down the wrong path on simple math depending on which numbers you see first.
Anchoring bias is the perfect example. Work done by cognitive science researchers like Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Dan Ariely, and Massimo Piatelli-Palmarini show us that you get a little bit of information and then your brain goes to work. Unfortunately, it almost always locks you into a mode of thought that’s just… not quite right. You’ll get the wrong estimates and numbers. You’ll be barricaded into thinking a certain way when you really need to consider the scenario more broadly.
And you’ll probably be manipulated. Prices can be structured to take advantage of your biased first impressions. You can be influenced to value things incorrectly. You’re a victim of your own mind and of those who recognize the ways to twist it.
But there’s a way out. Maybe.
** SOURCES **
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science, vol. 185, no. 4157, 1974, pp. 1124-1131. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/1738360?...
Sherif, Muzafer; Taub, Daniel; Hovland, Carl I. (1958). "Assimilation and contrast effects of anchoring stimuli on judgments". Journal of Experimental Psychology.
“The Anchoring Effect and How it Can Impact Your Negotiation,” Harvard Business School Program on Negotiation: www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/neg...
“Precision of the Anchor Influences the Amount of Adjustment,” Chris Janiszewski, Dan Uy: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1...
Massimo Piatelli-Palmarini, “Inevitable Illusions”: www.amazon.com/Inevitable-Ill...
** LINKS **
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/ tabortcu
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/ @johnswanyt
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#education #vsauce #maths
ANYONE WANNA TALK ABOUT XENOGEARS? Huge thanks to Ridge for sending me my new wallet, supporting Vsauce2 and my coin flipping habit. Here’s the site if you want to check them out! > ridge.com/Vsauce2
I DO!! I want to play it so badly. Have you played that publisher's other Xeno game, Xenoblade Chronicles?
Xenogears is amazing
The answer is 8!
Welp jokes on you I recognized 8! instantly and knew the answer thanks to you reminding me earlier in the video @1:13, I've memorized factors of 2 and 12 factorial and below
Xenogears is actually one of my favorite PS1 era RPGs/visual novels. I say /visual novels because well... let's not kid ourselves here, there's more story than there is actual gameplay! Though the few gameplay elements that there actually are, are absolutely great, and hell, the story is pretty damn good too!~ I can't really say the same for the Xenosaga series though..
Group A: 512
Group B: 2250
Me, an intellectual: 8!
Same wkwk
Dude I thought that same thing and said, does that count?
You, an intellectual: presents the problem in a different form you can still 'purify', therefore not solving it
I knew that 5! is 120 and 6! is 720, so 8! is about 56x this number, 50*700 ~ 35'000, 60*700~42'000
Last 2-3 seconds were just approximating that it's between 40k and 41k
@@maybenat Is it an answer? Yes? Then its an answer. Thats like saying 4/6 isn't the answer to 1/6*4. A solution doesn't need tj be simplified. Anyway thanks to my class liking factorial I actually kinda got it right the moment I saw 8! As the answer because memorized it.
Reminds me of movie theater food. If a medium is $6 and a large is $7, getting a large seems like the obvious choice when they're actually both way overpriced. The solution is to sneak a microwave in your purse and pop your own in the theater
They did this experiment once where they had only small for 4 and large for 7 and most people went for small. Then, they added medium for 6 and low and behold, way more people got the large one. When they were asked why, they said they get a much more quantity for just 1$. Basically, marketing people use this trick by inserting a dummy option to push you towards a different decision.
Large popcorn gets a free refill tho and i eat all of it anyways
Screw bringing the microwave! Instead, bring the entire kitchen!
Vlogcreations actually did this
@@maenmallah6337 Yeah wasn't that on Brain Games?
I started adding the numbers, not multiplying. I’m off to a really bad start.
Don't feel bad -- I did exactly the same :)
Lmfao
I guess you could say... things just aren't adding up in your favor.
@@PivotalShrimp nice
Same and I guessed 20
Mom:OMG he's going to say his first word
Vsauce2: WRONG!
Well that's kind of ironic isn't it
@@alwaysw1ns Yeah he just proved that he was wrong instead of her mother
This comment brought me to tears
He just proved that this is not his first word
I guessed "40,320" for A because that's the number you said right before. My media comprehension is too good to fall for your tricks >:)
I guessed 8! And I was right :')
K
ok genius
I did the same thing
Sanne Berkhuizen ok lol
Lets be honest guys the beginning and the ending of the video where okay but the middle part, damn that was some good stuff
You've made my day with this comment XD
Why was it actually tho
I'm at the start and it's a wasting my time.
@@maximzaporojan6966 It’s a reference to 3:55 I believe.
@@Antonio-wh8lh That's not what I meant
jokes on you i have factorials up to 10! memorized
You have achieved... THE GIFT xD
Copied
Why memorize if you can calculate right now
Lmao
@@BramLastname agh
i have trouble iwth being specific sometimes, so no
good catch though ;)
0:51 "You'll have exactly 5 seconds to solve the one you chose."
Me: *Laughs in pause button*
Anchoring also works on the (I V vi IV) chord progression.
THEY SAID YOU CAN ESTIMATE IT SO YOU DONT HAVE TO LAUGH ABOUT IT
Me: Panics in 2x speed
Scientists: "your brain is capable of having 1000 trillion operations per second"
Me: 3 take it or leave it
@@xuly3129 yeah I know what music theory is
Jokes on you, I have the first ten factorials memorized.
I only memorized the first 9 :(
@@TheLittleViridianFighter I did a double take on this lol
U are a pro
Same
I am 50 first dumb kids
I was going to argue "when's the last time you got tails 7 times in a row?" then proceded to flip a coin 7 times and felt dumb when all 7 were tails
I once got 40ish heads in a row with a penny as a kid.
I was really bored
@the Painted panda ya got karma
@Devinater Just as likely as any other 40-ish sequence. However, I get what you mean, because a sequence containing at least one tail is more likely than all heads.
First of all, why did you go out of your way to flip 7 coins.
Also, the probability of that happening is 1/2^7 or 1/128 which is about 0.75%
When's the last time you got Thhthtt?
Oh, this is why when I have a random number generator from one to a thousand, the number 1000 felt much luckier than 243 even though they have the same odds.
well in 2d6 throw, getting 12 is more lucky than getting 7
@@Tymczaq10 True, but in a 1d12 throw, getting 12 is the same as getting 7. But the reason the OP finds 1000 much luckier than 243 is probably just because 1000 is a number most people find more important thant 243
@@MythicByrd 1000 is a sort of "landmark" number, especially considering that it is the highest possible resulting number in their example.
“The people who solved problem A estimated 512”
Me who guessed exactly 512: .......
same i choosed 514
I actually guessed 40.000. That’s it! That’s the epitome of everything I’ve ever done. It’s only down hill from now on.
lmao
tho i guessed like 10000 ish
I guessed it exactly because he said what it was like 45 seconds beforehand
Me too
40 is pretty far from 40,320
“You’re lying to yourself “
Me: what changed
GAGAGAGAGAGA!!! I watched this video and it is really not that good compared to my perfect videos. GAGAGAGAGA!!! This is NOT self-promotion! This is the reality! This is the world! We are the people! Don't disl****ke my vide*****s, my dear sli
@@AxxLAfriku What a terrible self-promotion tactic. And yes, it is still self-promotion even if it's true, which it isn't.
@@kingacrisius dont talk to me
@@kingacrisius lol wtf is wrong with him
AxxL I assume you are a manager of the store that wants people to buy expensive stuff using the tactics described in the video? Oh wait, you didn't watch the video.
I started rounding prices up when I was a teenager and learned about the 9/10s of a cent at the end of all gasoline prices. So, $0.98 9/10s = $1.00 in my head. I've been doing it so long I barely see the decimals anymore.
“I’ll do my homework later”
Kevin:
Kevin: Right?
Also Kevin after 0.001 seconds: WRONG!
“Everything I say is a lie.... except that....and that....and that...”
-Peter Griffin
And this.
This sentence i just said is false.
@@isaiahdahler8933 which sentence? It's a joke. I understood him.
@@harsh3624 I said the sentence I said was false, not his/her's. I was also saying a joke.
LIAR
Oof, I remembered what 8! was after I saw the problem since you showed us "40,320" right before it: was a trigger word.
I chose A and estimated 40,000. After seeing the other people’s guesses I thought I was so far off, then the answer was revealed and I nearly fell off my chair
"Yeah the end was terrible. But the middle was really good" - Game of Thrones
The beginning was also really good though, so it doesn't count.
- Toradora
@@gernottiefenbrunner172 The beginning was bad because you get a million characters thrown into the mix and you get lost for a long time untill half of them are dead and the main cast starts to delineate better.
Michael: questions life and science
Kevin: does cool math stuff and has a white board
Jake: makes movies
This video is so effin good. We are all in denial in soooo many aspects in our lives and we should all stop seeking praise and giving blame because of this. That is the way of the future
When he said “wrong” I just about cried, WHY IS EVERYTHING MY FAULT… jk love you Kevin
Did anyone else think “eight factorial” and just... stop?
That's not the answer though. 8 factorial is just another way to state the problem. It would be like saying the answer to 2+2 is 1+3, neither is the answer.
Unless you're a fifth grader, i'm pretty sure 8! Will be accepted
@@MrT------5743 that's not the point imo. I thought the same thing, and I just have up, knowing there is no chance to calculate that in 5 seconds.
@@Pablud3S the whole point was to guess as close as you can to the correct answer. And 8! is not an answer that he was looking for.
i don't even know what numbers are at this point... i work in [-10,10] or with my calculator
and factorials are often subtracted anyway, so more along the lines of 10!-8!, i can't remember when i actually last calculated a factorial...
"no one ever comes out of something saying the ending and beginning were bad, but that they enjoyed the middle"
me, having read homestuck: well so you see actually
Tab is getting discontinued
@@SirKibble15 why does tab matter
Jugglos drink Faygo?
Oh that explains why it is so hard to get into, why it is so popular, and why people who put up with it and read it avoid talking about it, all at the same time!
How I Met Your Mother
You are a Champion Mr Sauce, thanks for the video
By the way love your videos very helpful thanks
Thanks Vsauce2 for our weekly existential crisis with this video.
hi justin
I go to micheal to think, I go to jake to ponder, I go to kevin to cry
A fresh Justin Y comment.. interesting!
stop fallowing me
When your first comment dies so you make a new one.
Wow I always thought I was real but I think I was just lying to myself :(
U commenting a lot lately
Why is your banner still roud to 200k while you already have 244k
Hello onion
Bruh what
What?
I appreciate the honesty about video game pricing. Everyone today is so much more rich than they were even just five years ago.
Southside Mall!!! I grew up drooling in that toy store!
It's true, we all sit on a throne of lies and smell like beef and cheese. Makes sense to me
Avery the Cuban-American lol
Avery the cuban-American your everywhere!
Gotta define the WHOLE MATHEMATICIAL THEN
Two months to rewwtching Elf again.
You're basically Justin Y but with videos
me: oh so it’s 8!, probably like 300 idk
him: *revealing it’s 40320*
me: …oh……
Same
Factors are almost always huge, as a rule of thumb.
@@AbandonedVoid what if the factors are fractions
Same
@@leafsharp lol, no they dont, they become very small
3:45 - You pulled out that game in such dramatic fashion...When I saw it was Xenogears I softly wept tears of joy. You sir, have impeccable taste.
My brain shut off after the card flip. I thought the lie expose would be "You are probably still trying to solve the number"
When will you just give up honestly?
haha, yeah, as soon as he flipped the card over I was like "...nope, don't care"
1:08
Not unless you have the factorials memorized😎
Oh, you like factorials? Name every factorial
@@kianholden7387 A000142
1! is 1
2! is 2
3! is 6
4! is 24
5! is 120
6! is 720
7! is 5040
8! is 40320
9! is 362880
10! is 3628800
x! is (x)*(x-1)*(x*2)...*3*2*1
I got 1-5 memorized
I only memorized up to 6, so I tried to multiply 720 by 56, didn't work :/
I recognized the factorial, got distracted by that, and didn’t come up with an estimate lmao
"Uhhh its. The answer is. Uh. Eight factorial!"
I really like it when he says:
Right? WRONG!
All these comments about the actual problem and the one thing I heard was Oneonta. Blew my mind for a min. I grew up about 20 mins from Oneonta, in North Alabama. I never knew there were 2. Just thought that was cool, it's a unique name. I really enjoy your content btw.
I recognized it as a factorial and only know 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, but I was much closer to the real answer with my 20 000 guess and I chose the A side too. I'm not invulnerable to biases and knowing that makes me take it in consideration a little more often.
no it is still worse than my 40320 estimate
Yeah, I just remembered that 8! was 40,000 and something, so I would have skewed that estimate a bit as well.
Yeah I don’t have factorials memorized, but it’s not so hard to get the right order of magnitude. 8 x 1 is 8. 4x5 is 20. Those are both kinda close to 10. You can have four pairs of numbers following that pattern (8x1, 7x2, 6x3, 5x4). So it’s gonna be above 10^4.
i'm confused, were we assuming that the likelihood of a coin flipping/dice rolling sequence being the real sequence is the same as the odds of getting that sequence in the first place? aren't those two different things?
Xidnaf??????? Wow I didn’t expect that. No videos ever again?
HE'S REEMERGED
XIDNAF
it's more like one of the three is the real sequence that was achieved by throwing the coin/dice and the other two were made up, and then it was asked which one was the real one
but as the three sequences have the same odds of happening, the result of that "social" experiment should be that 1/3 of people should choose the first, 1/3 should chose the second and 1/3 should choose the third. but instead we end up choosing the sequence that looks more "random"
I believe they are the same. The 'real' sequence is another way of saying a given sequence, so we're calculating the probabilities that this sequence of flips/rolls is one of the ones listed.
(p.s. used to love watching your videos, hope you're enjoying whatever you're up to atm c:)
We had this in the consumer behaviour module of our marketing degree!!
You just gave me a better marketing strategy. Thanks
I could never tell a lie though
Alrighty then I got one for you
Do you ever feel like a plastic bag, drifting in the wind, wanting to start again?
@@AJBAXTER7677 Those lines are from Fireworks, right?
@@VenkataB123 Yes, cause I am that unoriginal 😂
@林 勇 yeah right ! I HOPE HE KNOWS HOW TO COUNT
I trust you, dear Supreme Leader! 🤗
I just started learning probability in math and my knowledge from you has really helped me excel. Thank you man and keep up the good work!
that example with the 8 numbers to multiplicate is a pretty bad "indicator" of anchoring bias, since the participants of the study most likely just started at the left and based on how far they got, had different outcomes, which they used to base their estimate on the overall end-result of the multiplication on. so instead of anchoring, the reason for the difference is that we read from left to right and, since we are bad at guessing the outcomes of multiplication (/exponential growth), base our estimates on the limited information we have in the first half of the 8 numbers...
Yeah, this video has a lot of issues. I'm actually pretty disappointed in this video.
"so instead of anchoring, the reason for the difference is that we read from left to right" - the fact that we read from left to right IS one of the reasons why anchoring effect appears. "just started at the left and based on how far they got, had different outcomes" this does not make sense, noone will start to multiply one by one knowing they have only 5 seconds, the answers are pure estimations except from people who work with factorials.
@@rinrin4711 it is simply a baseless assumption to say that people Do Not try to multiplicate the numbers within the timespan. Even if they knwo the time is Not enough, the task at Hand is about multiplying them, so starting to Do just that is absolutely Not a far fetched idea of how to get closer to the answer. It doesnt even make sense Not to At least think of SOME products of the numbers AT Hand, since otherwise you wouldnt go anywhere towards Findung out the Overall product. So i dont See how you Can assume that they did Not Start with the first multiplications that could have been Made from left to right and to then assume that the behavior of growth is representative. Which would be a consious way of deducing an estimate, based on too little Information, but also on being Bad At foreseeing how exponential growth works. Ne reason to assume anchoring.
I could lie so much more like this, Thanks!
"You're Lying To Yourself (and I'll prove it)" no need, i already know.....
The coin flip thing is perfectly reasonable. Whilst you can't predict what a real coin flip will look like (all events are equally likely) you can absolutely predict what a made up coin flip is more likely to look like. If a human being comes up with the two decoys, they are far more likely to choose a pattern than it happening by random chance. So when choosing the real sequence the most sensible approach is to discount the flips that follow the sort of patterns humans are more likely to produce. It might not be the right decision using statistics alone but when you factor in the element of psychology it is absolutely the correct bet.
Yeah, there are only a handful of sequences that look fake, so if it looks fake, odds are it is.
I understand what you are saying but Kevin wanted to show that when choosing between patterns which are equally likely to occur we choose the ones which are most random.
I think they're off the mark on this.
Takes me back to high school exams where there's 3 levels to a subject, but the question requires a lvl 1 response, and It's multiple choice, so we're restricted by the answers you give us and have no way of justifying the logic behind our response.
I.e i understand the math is equal anyway, so every order is equally right answer I.e not wrong answer I can't answer wrong. I don't feel like I'm increasing my odds mathematically, but it covers any human tampering and feels tidy.
Projecting this as flawed logic and "lying to yourself" I feel is a little skewed.
Vague question often have multiple conceivable meanings, therefore multiple possible answers. If I can answer all of them correctly, but have to guess which meaning is implied than It's a flawed question, not a flawed answer.
He did say that people pick what they picked for all the wrong reasons
I was going to say the same thing - the two others were pretty obvious decoys, so it has to be the only one that 'looks' random.
Vsauce: Have you ever heard someone say "yeah, the beginning and end of the movie were terrible but the middle was really good"
This is literally how I describe The Ring
My hypothesis:
I think our brains are instinctively wired to assume the state of maximum entropy to satisfy the 2nd law of thermodynamic. That's why we try to choose those answers with equally mixed portion of each item instead of any particularly skewed one.
Unfortunately, these questions come with at least 3 separated choices. > Therefore our brain fail to see these answers choices as 3 independent systems. We then pick the one with the illusion of perfect randomness (false perception of maximum entropy) as the most probable answer.
With limited time and limited exposure to probability calculation exercise, some people may not be able to use those fragment of a heartbeat to calculate any mathemetically sound answer.
The reasons I think of this hypothesis are:
1. I calculated the probability of each independent coin flipping event and knowing the answer right before the actual calculation was done. Not because my brain functions specially, but because my brain has been taught the methodology and the answer beforehand.
2. Human brain can not process 2 totally different thought train at once. Don't believe me? Try remembering the food you ate at lunch 2 days ago the exact same moment that you try remembering the food you ate during dinner the same day. Not quite possible right?
Still not believe?
Now, try doing
35742 × 55682
The same exact time (in paralell) u'r doing
74377 × 43369
Not possible right? You have to finnish either one first before you can finish the other one.
With this condition we cannot calculate and perceive all three choices of those questions at the exact same time. Resulting in our brain assuming them to be in the same system instead of being 3 different system.
PS. Thank you very much Kev. Love all these math video.
I think we just don't think logically and use previous experiences that tells us that it's more likely that someone with a perfect score is lying
I think some people just take the one random mixed sequence to somehow represent any mixed sequence, thus comparing the possibility of getting any of 126 sequences vs getting one of two possible sequences, thus concluding that the mixed sequence had a much higher probablity.
4:50 if someone came up to me and said: "yo, I just rolled 5 dice. You want to bet I got a yahtzee (55555), a full house (22444), or 13445?", I know which one I'd pick. Knowing that there are two wrong answers makes it an easy bet to pick the one that seemingly is more likely. If you had to bet any of these outcomes BEFORE the roll happened, then yes, they are all equally likely - but it's very possible that none of these outcomes will occur. Knowing that one of these three outcomes has to be the actual outcome makes it a very sensible decision to write off the two more 'unlikely' rolls as the fake answers
Actually, since order doesn't matter in Yahtzee, those aren't all equally likely, which makes it different, but your point would be valid with a different example. Basically, random processes tend towards maximum entropy, and 7 tails in a row is minimum entropy, which means that it is more likely to be fabricated than to have come out of a random process, if you know that both types of sequences exist in the answers.
then he tells you he rolled 12345, so you lose :P
@@killerbee.13 But if someone were to flip a coin 100 times, it is very likely there will be a series of 7 tails or 7 heads in a row. Long sequences of the same outcome when each is a 50/50 is just as likely as alternating.
@@MrT------5743 I never said anything about alternating sequences. They also have low entropy. High entropy means an unpredictable sequence, or equivalently, an uncompressible sequence. I can abbreviate HHHHHHH to "7H" (2 symbols), but I can't abbreviate HTHTHHH (A sequence I just flipped) nearly as much (maybe "2HT3H" (5 symbols)). This compression scheme isn't perfect, and the sequences in question are short so the effect is weak, but it's good enough to demonstrate the point.
And while there's a decent chance of getting any arbitrary length 7 sequence within a random (fair) length 100 sequence, that's not what the question, nor my own argument, was about, so I'm not sure what your point was.
@@MrZoolook I was going to do that originally, but decided that making the repetition eager resulted in better results for all the sequences I was looking at. It does mean that incompressible sequences have to be prepended with a 1 though, so it's a trade-off. I could have explained it better but felt the comment was already rather long.
I was gonna inform yall that my dad went to buy milk and will be back, but dis dude told me that I'm just lying to myself
No, I am your father
What a dummy amirite?
Amirite?
awesome !!
I taught a group of adults (in a college night class) and asked if anyone would play the 46 number lottery of pick-6 with their numbers being 1-2-3-4-5-6. All of them said no because they felt such an outcome would never happen. Yet those who did play had no issues playing their 6 number picks. Then I clearly explained that both outcomes were equally unlikely. Yet, they kept on playing.
"You're lying to yourself"
I know
PepeHands
Hol'up
1:00 answer: 8! (factorial)
So eight factorial factorial?
@@Alex-fm6jd No, the parentheses are just to explain, what I mean with the symbol "!" because many people don't know or have forgotten the meaning and if they see the name "factorial" they can google it or they remember math class.
@@SeeTv. Ich glaube er weiß wie du es meintest und wollte nur witzig sein 😂
@@Phillip161 Ja ich weiss, aber ich habe irgendwie den Drang, exakt zu schreiben, was ich meine xD
Clever, but also dodging the answer.
"You are lying to yourself and you don't even know"
Me who doesn't even believe anything I say since 4th grade: *I'm four parallel universes ahead of you*
That coin flip one really got me though
0:30
6th grade me when I use google calculator to divide 0.00000190734 by 2 and get something "greater than 1"
Wait,
* voice crack mode on *
huh?
Put it down
Tell Google that
Actually a Google bot it will say its right because its lying to otself
Regarding coin flip.
Of course each of the 3 have the same odds but the random PATTERN of 2 is WAY more likely then the simpler patterns of 1 or 3.
The pattern? If you change that, it's not the same sequence anymore...I don't understand your point
@@sharktos3218 the coin has already been flipped.. the sequence was definitely one of those 3. Which one is it most likely to be? Obviously number 2.
If the question was, I'm now going to flip a coin, which sequence is most likely to appear. Then they're all equal. Because they're all predetermined.
@@brootusx And the video tells you exactly that: The likelihood is the same for all of the combination, no matter how they look. And no, flipping now and already flipped makes no difference
@@sharktos3218 The sequences have different amounts of entropy. Random processes, by the law of large numbers, tend to have nearly maximal entropy, so the interpretation actually does matter, even though technically the time is irrelevant, and the question as stated doesn't clearly rule out the other interpretation. "Which sequence is least likely to have been fabricated?" would be the sequence with highest entropy. "Which of these arbitrary sequences is most likely to match exactly with the 7 he did?" is that they're all the same chance, 1/128, no sequence is inherently more likely than any other.
@@sharktos3218 I have just flipped a coin 7 times. Guess what sequence i got.
1 - H H T H T T H
2 - T T T T T T T
I've done it again, guess again.
1- T T H T H H H
2- T T T T T T T
and again
1- H T H T T T H
2- T T T T T T T
If we keep doing this and you keep answer 1 youll be right 99.2% of the time.
OK let's do it the other way. I'm going to flip a coin in the future. Which sequence will appear first?
1- T H H T H T T
2- T T T T T T T
They are both just ask likely.
See what I mean?
Concerning the coin flip problem, if you had asked "Which one of these do you think he got?" then 1 or 2 would be better guesses because it's much more likely that he would've gotten some combination of both heads and tails than all heads or all tails.
But the guesses for 1 or 2 are not "some combination of heads and tails", they are "this exact specific combination of heads and tails". And this is the same probability of getting any other specific combination including all heads or all tails.
I enjoyed this
Re: coin toss:
Yes, all the sequences are equally likely from a coinflip. But we know that only one was real, and the other two are far more plausible from the alternate process “come up with some non-random-looking-to-humans sequences”.
exactly
the illusion of randomness
@@akibzuhairsamin2284 I’m not saying that the sequences have different probabilities if you are *about* to flip a coin; they’re the same. I’m saying that if you already flipped the coin and asked me that question, it’s actually reasonable to say B
@@danielrhouck its only reasonable if you assume the coin toss is not random
@@Blox117 The coin toss is random. The other two options are not.
Letʼs repeat the experiment. I just flipped 7 (virtual, random, 50/50, giving 01 instead of HT) coins. The result is one of
* 0011111
* 1100111
* 1111111
Which do you think it is? (Sadly online payment is not such that I can reasonably offer a reward for any guess, or I might actually offer you 3 dollars for the right guess)
(md5sum hash, for some verification that I didnʼt cheat: cba2b09f2358d7ad5a1a508d1d648c2c.)
I can do this many times and about 89% of the time the answer will be 2. About 9% of the time itʼll be 1, and about 2% itʼll be 3.
1:10 virtually nobody
Me who knows 8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1 from top of my head
It is just factorial after all
Photo math 😏
@@doommaker4000 i said 8 factorial or 8!
Glad I'm not the only one who memorized 0! To 10!
I panicked guessed 56.
5:15 I would say that 2,1,3 IS the correct answer. Why?
1. We know that one flip supposed to happen.
2. We know/ assume that two flips were fabricated (not a real outcome)
3. There are millions of combinations of random looking flips (like THHTHTT) but there are fewer combinations of ordered ones and only two combinations of all flips being same.
3. So, the probability of one random looking flip is higher than the probability of ordered one, and millions of times higher than all tails flip.
So yeah if it would be a real world, I would bet like this. If it would be a simulated in computer (that would create 3 random results, and THEN randomly choose the "real" one, without analysing if 7xT is looking more or less likely) then all options would have same possibility.
6:07 nice little mix
I picked A, then, after the flip, immediately looked for the largest numbers to multiply, because that's how I work multiplication, so I wouldn't have fit in the A group. Also, I looked over at B while doing mental calculations and saw they were the same anyway.
As for the price thing, I learned way back as a young child to just call any price with change the next highest dollar amount. Not just $19.99 = $20, but even something like $19.45 = $20. This is a good practice not just because it gets around the psychological trick that is being attempted, but also because it provides a better estimate including tax which will be added on when actually purchasing.
In fact, it seems like none of your anchoring examples even applied to me (I easily figured the coin and dice odds between the choices), but I feel it would be too presumptuous (and perhaps conceited) to say that I've broken anchoring. You just have to look at things as they are and not how you expect them to be.
Some of these were kinda trained out of me with the puzzles and riddles my dad put in front of me, plus the bazillion I subjected myself to. Especially prices and sales
You blew it on the coin flip explanation. It is correct that those 3 sequences have equally likely outcomes. You asked, "'Cookie Monster' flipped a coin 7 times. What was the outcome?". A mix of heads and tails IS the most likely outcome from 7 flips because there are many more ways to achieve that. The correct answer to the scenario and question you posed is #2.
2:53 : well, i spent about 1/3 of my time realizing that the questions have the same answer 8! (i was more interested to find out if i randomly picked the easier or the harder question), then another 1/3 of my time trying to remember 7! was 5000 something, and the remaining 1/3 to multiply that by 8 and coming up with my estimate of 40000 something
yeah pretty much same, i knew 5! was 120 then i multiplied it by 6 to get 720 and then just guessed 720 multiplied by 56 to be around 38000 ish
I just guessed it because I know 1x2x3x4 blabla blqa till ten is 362880 so I tried to divide it soi divided it byt the second to last number and thought near 40k
Kevin: You're lying to yourself
Me: Im not, *OR AM I?*
Yes, the probabilities of the coin flips are the same, but because there are more combinations of scattered results than ordered ones, there is in fact a higher chance to get a scattered result than an ordered one.
I recognized 8! and just stopped thinking about it. When you then asked me to estimate, I grouped by numbers that, when multiplied with each other, give something near 10, so I got (2*5)*(3*4)*(8)*(6*7), converted that into 10*10*10*40 = 40 000.
It looks like the people from the test groups, when asked to estimate the result, just ditched the last few numbers and estimated the result of the first few numbers.
I chose B, I extimated 8 factorial. Yea I cheated
Same
I chose A, got the same answer, and then noticed these were the same problem.
They are the same
I saw this notification when telling myself how terrifying the mario 64 piano is
The best thing about the comments is, if you question something in the video, something that every single watcher didn't know or got wrong at first, then every single person that just learned that thing from watching the same video everyone watched is now an instant savant about that one thing!
For the beginning problem my mind went "that's just 8!, I may not know the value of 8! but 8! is still a valid answer"
It sounds more like we are all just bad at math
Just reading the title makes me think about Brody the Cuber
I’m a mathematician and within 5 seconds I was able to realise they were they same and about 50,000 based on past experiences
That is true of the more throws the less the probability thing
Fun fact: Anchoring is also one of the many exploitative and manipulative tactics those same companies use to earn much more than just 70$ per Game. Math is also about considering all the parameters.
Vsause 2: “It’s why 40,320 > 40,320”
Thousands of people: Oh boy, this is gonna be interesting
and then it wasnt :/
He didn't even explain it. Seems like a joke just to make it seem interesting.
@@Nekotaku_TV - Except he did explain it? Lol. 40,320 is 8!, and cards A and B were both 8! but written differently, and people who saw it written in ascending order estimated 8! to be smaller than those who saw 8! written in descending order, therefore 40,320>40,320. The same scenario merely interpreted as being larger depending on the context
Nice tricks made. You probably placed the dices yourself.
Never got that price thing ! I always round .99 cents and usually will round up most .70 cents in terms of how I consider my spendings. Didn't know about the car thing and I guess I'll never be caught now since this video is pretty much my only anchor for it ! Which I'm glad
I guessed 520 despite picking letter B, but what's interesting about it is I multiplied right to left instead of left to right cause it seemed easier. I started with the smaller numbers to get through multiplication quicker, which basically means I multiplied like letter A instead of B; which resulted in a very close median for letter A.
I thought I was hyped to watch this video but now I’m questioning even that
This was the first vsauce video where nothing was true (for me.)
Well statistically it might be. But I don't think I know anyone who would think like he suggested.
And I don't understand where he pulled the "no one says the beginning and end were bad but the middle was good". This video was weird man.
Edit: Removed needless besserwisserism.
@@VikingTeddy you have negative IQ
Also me-choses B but instead of starting to multiply from 8 I actually started from 1 in reverse as I felt that easier...😂😂😂😂
*OOF*
I failed the test by looking at both of the problems, seeing that they were the same, and saying both were 200.
@@d39street66 wow one of a kind
*Reads title*
Okay but you didn't have to expose me like that Kevin
I'm pretty sure this video proved that it's lying to me about me lying to myself.
Me: Maybe im not that bad of a person
**VIDEO EXSISTES**
Me: oh
Does Kevin have a video discussing the logic of coin flips? The interesting thing about (fair) coin flips is that while any given sequence is just as likely as another, the likelihood of having any mixture of heads and tails is higher than having all heads or all tails, once you do 3 or more tosses.
Well yeah; that’s because there’s just more possible mixed outcomes. The likely hood of each individual outcome is the same, the difference is that there’s multiple ways to rearrange the mixed sequences (HTH, THH, HHT, TTH, THT, HTT) compared to only one way (HHH, TTT) so even though TTT = HTH in terms of probability, HTH = THH and HHT in terms of numerical result (One tails, two heads) so there’s a higher chance of that number total happening.
It’s not wrong to believe that the real outcome is when the coin flip is all tails, the mistake is when you believe that one sequence is more likely than others
fascinating, I saw it, immediately parsed it as 8! and then tried to estimate that
The only way to avoid anchoring (very hard) is to have confidence in your abilities/analysis. Especially relevant to stock price analysis and in life in general. I also have fallen for 2 other biases. I wouldn't purchase something because of dumb/bad reasons of a past experience. I would purchase something because i had bought it in the past only but the cheap one, and go buy the luxury one. So there u go : Anchoring Bias(or Outside Influence Bias), Things Never Changed Bias(Bad experience of a past prevents you from seeing the future), Hidden Desire Bias(ego overengineered purchase).
Me , Who knows the factorial of 8 😂😂😂😂
The thing about the coin flipping though, assuming you're trying to guess the real outcome, there's only one outcome where there all tails, but many outcomes where they are a combination of heads and tails, so it's more likely to be some abstract combination than all tails.
But it's not more likely to be exact this abstract combination
Yes, but you're not picking ALL TAILS or ANY SEQUENCE OF HEADS AND TAILS, you're picking ALL TAILS or THIS ONE SEQUENCE OF HEADS AND TAILS
Yea you're both 100% right that's just how my anchored bias rationalizes it 😂
@@sianmilne4879 But you kind of are picking all of them. This is a test on cognitive biases, so the fact that there's one sequences for each of the three families represented (all consistent, mostly consistent with a little variation and completely mixed up) suggests that they were chosen that way on purpose for the sake of the test. And it's much more likely that a genuinely random sequence would be a suitable candidate for the mixed up family of sequences than for either of the others.
@@SwordFishTheFish No you are absolutely right, one of the three sequences is correct, and he most likely did not flip 7 tails on his first attempt! hence its most certainly one of the first 2 answers, if he hadn't specified that one of them was the real one only then would all the odds be the same
Pure win for showing both Legend of Dragoon, AND Xenogears, my favorite PS1 games.
I just love ur t-shirt 😍