The Game You Quit

Поделиться
HTML-код
  • Опубликовано: 8 сен 2024
  • By choosing to watch this video, you’ve already won… the game of quitting.
    In 1958, John H. Fox, Jr. of the Minneapolis-Honeywell Regulator Company and L Gerald Marnie of MIT invented “The Game of Googol,” which revealed a seminal concept in the art of optimal stopping theory. The premise was simple: when given a series of choices, when do we finally decide to commit? When do we stop exploring alternatives and actually choose so that we maximize our payoff? How do we do that without just guessing?
    The solution to knowing when to stop involves harnessing the power of Euler’s number, and it shows up in our lives every day. It’s how we decide when to choose a parking spot so we don’t have to drive all the way back around again. It’s how we decide who to commit to for life after having a series of relationships.
    And we won’t always win. In fact, most of the time we won’t get it perfectly right. But employing optimal stopping in The Game of Googol is just like employing it in real life. We’ll win as much as possible, and when we miss by a little bit, we’ll still be pretty happy with the result.
    ** SOURCES **
    For a great in-depth look at Euler’s Number, check out Numberphile: • e (Euler's Number) - N...
    Frontal-parietal and limbic-striatal activity underlies information sampling in the best choice problem: www.ncbi.nlm.n...
    A Solution to the Game of Googol, Alexander V. Gnedin: projecteuclid....
    ** LINKS **
    Vsauce2 Links
    Twitter: / vsaucetwo
    Facebook: / vsaucetwo
    Hosted and Produced by Kevin Lieber
    Instagram: / kevlieber
    Twitter: / kevinlieber
    Podcast: / thecreateunknown
    Research And Writing by Matthew Tabor
    / matthewktabor
    Editing by Aspect Science
    / @tommocarroll
    Huge Thanks To Paula Lieber
    www.etsy.com/s...
    Get Vsauce's favorite science and math toys delivered to your door!
    www.curiosityb...
    Select Music By Jake Chudnow: / jakechudnow
    #education #vsauce2

Комментарии • 3,8 тыс.

  • @Vsauce2
    @Vsauce2  5 лет назад +6642

    Some commenters have made an important point: there are definitely times when you do NOT want to be Eule-y to the max. Sometimes you need to break away from the rigid rules of the game.
    For example, if you have 100 slips in The Game of Googol and one of your sample slips contains a number with 99 zeroes, you’d want to commit to it. You understand that the number is very close to the maximum, and with something like 90 slips left, the odds that you’d draw a number higher than that are extremely low. There just aren’t enough options, so it just wouldn’t make sense to keep turning over slips just because your system tells you to.
    A reliable, math-based system is awesome... but when you know, you know.

    • @icelick6912
      @icelick6912 5 лет назад +280

      If it's a random selection from 0 to 10^100, wouldn't 1x10^99 be in the bottom 10th percentile?
      Anyway, I gotta go talk to 3.8billion/e women real quick if I want to find "the one"

    • @achecase
      @achecase 5 лет назад +36

      Something's missing, how long do you continue if you do not pick a number higher than one in the first 40%? (Also screw e right, fourty %) If we've no idea of the top #, how much longer do we pick until we settle for something less?

    • @Jack-wl4vf
      @Jack-wl4vf 5 лет назад +6

      Can you tell how wormholes work (the paradox)

    • @roboglob
      @roboglob 5 лет назад +44

      I think the key assumption that makes The Game of Googol admit a better strategy is that you know a priori the range of numbers allowable. So you should be able to use this to avoid the initial search and instead determine the value to be exceeded at the start of your search.

    • @DampeS8N
      @DampeS8N 5 лет назад +11

      That's probably what all that math you had there and tossed out said.

  • @derpatron4732
    @derpatron4732 4 года назад +4181

    Everyone: The game is all about luc-
    Kevin: E

    • @mariafe7050
      @mariafe7050 4 года назад +55

      Luce?

    • @tasostheteaman5484
      @tasostheteaman5484 4 года назад +29

      @@mariafe7050 luck

    • @mariaasqr
      @mariaasqr 4 года назад +28

      maria fe everyone thinks the game is about luck, but then kevin just talks about e in this video (if u still didnt get the joke, what is ur life?)

    • @IncogNiko
      @IncogNiko 4 года назад +12

      e*

    • @HarvoSpoon
      @HarvoSpoon 4 года назад +9

      _the number e_

  • @pinkquartz3404
    @pinkquartz3404 5 лет назад +1107

    8:54 Kepler:
    "Hey, sorry I rejected you, I just thought I could do better. Guess I was wrong."

    • @nicecubin
      @nicecubin 4 года назад +12

      p01ar b3ar DONT LIKE THE COMMENT! (69)

    • @sansleskeleton5570
      @sansleskeleton5570 4 года назад +4

      E

    • @jimandskittum
      @jimandskittum 3 года назад +7

      His chances are 1/3. Same as every other marriage in history : )

    • @TheInnerSpark
      @TheInnerSpark 2 года назад

      Lol

    • @rage_2000
      @rage_2000 2 года назад +4

      If Kepler is a player, then he’s playing in the higher difficulty

  • @0012erick
    @0012erick 5 лет назад +817

    "When should I stop, I honestly don't know" Five seconds later: "The odds of my me choosing correctly are 1 in 3 because I'm going to employ optimal stopping theory."

    • @Jessiemats
      @Jessiemats 5 лет назад +34

      I decided to stop scrolling when I reached this comment

    • @c6q3a24
      @c6q3a24 5 лет назад +8

      When exactly should I stop?
      I honestly don't know, but this system gives me a 12.5% chance of getting the best result, by surveying ~37% of the pool.

    • @Bujumbura
      @Bujumbura 5 лет назад +1

      Sounds like an anime character being extra smart for no reason

    • @elizabethcabbage9817
      @elizabethcabbage9817 5 лет назад +1

      Well the idea for "should" stop isn't confined to what WE know, but to what there is. So he still honestly didn't know when he should stop, just when is statistically the best time to.

    • @christhegreat5966
      @christhegreat5966 7 месяцев назад

      Same but 4 years later@@Jessiemats

  • @dereksavery3644
    @dereksavery3644 5 лет назад +819

    "When exactly, mathematically, do we start stopping?"

    • @HxWilliams
      @HxWilliams 5 лет назад +8

      From what i understood you immediately stop after finding the number higher than the sample with the highest number

    • @grutfrut5817
      @grutfrut5817 5 лет назад +39

      Right before you stop starting.

    • @DoctrZhivago
      @DoctrZhivago 5 лет назад +7

      @@grutfrut5817 and right after you start farting

    • @SCOOTYBOOTYPATOOTY
      @SCOOTYBOOTYPATOOTY 5 лет назад +5

      @@DoctrZhivago you start stopping when you stop starting stopping

    • @leefisher6366
      @leefisher6366 5 лет назад +3

      @@SCOOTYBOOTYPATOOTY Surely you can't start to stop until you've started starting to stop, and you can't start starting to stop until you've started starting starting to stop... (ad infinitum).

  • @wicetor
    @wicetor 4 года назад +2456

    The most important question here:
    How does a googol fit on such a small piece of paper?

    • @skiney
      @skiney 4 года назад +271

      10^100

    • @dj.matexx
      @dj.matexx 4 года назад +51

      @@kasimhanif3478 you forgot the ( ) maifren
      Edit: very well now

    • @sansleskeleton5570
      @sansleskeleton5570 4 года назад +24

      E

    • @vvvonmyteeth
      @vvvonmyteeth 4 года назад +4

      @@sansleskeleton5570 --e

    • @darkside3490
      @darkside3490 3 года назад +3

      Maybe write "G" instead

  • @miners_haven
    @miners_haven 5 лет назад +3140

    Me: *doesn't quit*
    Game: Wait. This is Illegal.

    • @swordfishxd-
      @swordfishxd- 5 лет назад +2

      I Did The Same

    • @nitro4351
      @nitro4351 5 лет назад +25

      That's*

    • @fortnitesexman
      @fortnitesexman 4 года назад +27

      NitroOne seeing someone mess up a meme pains me

    • @mariafe7050
      @mariafe7050 4 года назад +2

      I made this comment have 666 likes I am Satan! 😈

    • @sabrinazz4662
      @sabrinazz4662 4 года назад +1

      @@mariafe7050 Ha.

  • @RalphsLegend
    @RalphsLegend 5 лет назад +645

    I found the love of my life hidden in plane math. I'm an aeronautical engineer.

    • @S.beats123
      @S.beats123 5 лет назад +3

      What?

    • @jessespence8332
      @jessespence8332 5 лет назад +3

      i was thinking about going into Aeronautics, got any tips?

    • @miguelyepez8413
      @miguelyepez8413 5 лет назад +27

      Quit

    • @jessespence8332
      @jessespence8332 5 лет назад

      @@miguelyepez8413 i haven't started yet

    • @mdalabs
      @mdalabs 5 лет назад

      @@jessespence8332 i'm going to Uni soon to do that.

  • @the.abhiram.r
    @the.abhiram.r 3 года назад +19

    "will you go out with me?"
    "hol up, lemme check"
    *opens desmos app*

  • @NinjaPedroX
    @NinjaPedroX 5 лет назад +433

    Someone challenges me to a game of googol
    Me: Hand me a calculator.

  • @DCONightingale
    @DCONightingale 5 лет назад +1313

    I can’t wait for the April Fool’s Vsauce2 video. You just know there’s gonna be one.

    • @epicstimulus282
      @epicstimulus282 5 лет назад +3

      Ayyyy! I loved your Lost in Silence vid! Tom beating up Paul!!!

    • @marbleswan6664
      @marbleswan6664 5 лет назад +22

      DCO Nightingale i hope they teach us something real and watch as everyone tries to find whats wrong

    • @DCONightingale
      @DCONightingale 5 лет назад +5

      MarbleSwan666 It’ll be some game that’s total nonsense and Kevin will be presenting it as if he’s serious.

    • @Rho507
      @Rho507 5 лет назад +4

      Explaining how 0 is equal to 1

    • @starfiring
      @starfiring 5 лет назад +3

      About some game that he completely makes up, with a mathematical principle that he completely makes up.

  • @LNB627
    @LNB627 5 лет назад +576

    Me: what’s your favorite number
    Kevin: EEEEEEEEEEE

  • @dused9799
    @dused9799 5 лет назад +3639

    Soooooooo for the love of my life I just have to date approximatly 1.2 billion women and then take the next one that's better and I'll have the love of my life... sounds easy enough

    • @aidanchou3217
      @aidanchou3217 5 лет назад +331

      dont worry no one wants to date you, 0/e is 0

    • @c6q3a24
      @c6q3a24 5 лет назад +144

      You're a primate. You have a social sphere of roughly 150 people. ~75 women. Let's argue that MAYBE 10% could be considered sexually available to you. Date 3. Marry the next one who is better than the previous 3 - unless of course you find a complete stand out earlier on.
      Data indicates people with fewer sexual partners live happier lives - despite what modern media tends to suggest. Yes, ~50% of marriages end in divorce, but that means ~50% of marriages last until death - that's not a bad rate of success for any multi decade endeavour. IIRC small businesses fail in the first few years ~2/3rds of the time.

    • @sprolyborn2554
      @sprolyborn2554 5 лет назад +71

      @@c6q3a24 "yes 50% of marriages end in divorce" if that was all there was to it, then it wouldn't be a scary thing at all and you'd be crazy to not play the odds. problem is, that 50% chance of divorce translates to a 50% chance of losing everything you've ever managed to obtain up until now and most of what you will make in the future until death. enjoy trying to roll the dice with another woman whilst being homeless and having to give over half of your paycheck to your ex-wife. Looking at it like that, you have ONE chance and only one chance.

    • @jujifenty5031
      @jujifenty5031 5 лет назад +35

      You can also think of it as "the amount of women you will meet before in a lifetime"/e

    • @GRBtutorials
      @GRBtutorials 5 лет назад +36

      Actually, no. You have 1/3 odds of choosing the best one. Fortunately for all of us, there are lots of people that are good matches.

  • @cffee3288
    @cffee3288 5 лет назад +2565

    Hey Vscause, Kevin here, and-
    Me: *gets ready for the intellectual bomb*
    Vscause2: *_I HAVE A 100 PIECES OF PAPER_*

  • @excutter
    @excutter 3 года назад +25

    This is the type of math I wish I could have figured out when I used to watch deal or no deal.
    I always felt like it logically made sense to open up a certain number of cases first before even thinking to settle on one

    • @BettyAlexandriaPride
      @BettyAlexandriaPride 2 года назад

      True, I never thought about applying it to that game!

    • @GEM4sta
      @GEM4sta Год назад

      You don't need this for that, it's a pretty simple math problem to calculate ev. It's basically always better to keep opening, the game is more about how risk adverse you are

  • @pan-cake8534
    @pan-cake8534 5 лет назад +615

    Kevin: "e. The number."
    Me: *distant screaming

  • @jmarkellos
    @jmarkellos 5 лет назад +453

    I ended up recreating this game in Excel and playing for like an hour. There goes my lunch break I guess...

  • @ZutoMimi
    @ZutoMimi 5 лет назад +43

    Kevin: You just need to quit
    Also Kevin: This is sponsered by LastPass
    Computer: What is your Password?
    Me: I'm so confused if I should quit remembering or use LastPass

  • @krajnyakmilan8994
    @krajnyakmilan8994 5 лет назад +765

    Education: spend 20 years in school then u might make 60 000 a year
    VsauceKevin: *QUIT*

    • @Dylzhaar
      @Dylzhaar 5 лет назад +20

      This is a white ELEPHANT Quit, but only after 20/e years

    • @bestnumber_7225
      @bestnumber_7225 5 лет назад

      This is a white ELEPHANT exchange

    • @elias_xp95
      @elias_xp95 5 лет назад

      @@Dylzhaar 7.35758882343

    • @benjamin7114
      @benjamin7114 5 лет назад +4

      Bill gates was studying law at Havard , lowest period to complete degree was 5.5 years . 5.5 years = 66 months .... 66 / 2.71828 = 24 months . Bill Gates quit after 2 years .

    • @darealpoopster
      @darealpoopster 5 лет назад +1

      Bhaalspawn84 Yeah, socialism ftw. JK, no sane person would want to pay that high taxes

  • @joshuakostyushko
    @joshuakostyushko 5 лет назад +827

    VSauce2: The key is E!
    Markiplier: Am I a joke to you?

    • @bigcat5984
      @bigcat5984 5 лет назад +19

      Jacksepticeye: SPEED IS KEYYY!!!

    • @dabs5081
      @dabs5081 5 лет назад +3

      Doesn’t really make sense but okay

    • @joshuakostyushko
      @joshuakostyushko 5 лет назад +7

      @@dabs5081 Yes it does: ruclips.net/video/1bG8WcFk17Y/видео.html
      Sub to PEWDIEPIE and KREATIVITYBOOST also plz!

    • @playitkb2126
      @playitkb2126 5 лет назад +1

      Subscribe to PEWDIEPIE and KREATIVITYBOOST

    • @jbrickstudios9496
      @jbrickstudios9496 5 лет назад +1

      Subscribe to PEWDIEPIE and KREATIVITYBOOST

  • @jayboni541
    @jayboni541 5 лет назад +158

    3:05
    "The key is... e."
    Kevin, Vsauce2

  • @modelsteamers671
    @modelsteamers671 5 лет назад +148

    Thanks for uploading this, it is very similar to a strategy I read about for deciding which checkout to use in a supermarket to maximise your chance of being in the shortest queue. It said walk past 1/3 of the checkouts then join the next queue you come to that is shorter than any you have so far seen. I do actually use this strategy in real life and it does seem to work.

    • @weckar
      @weckar 2 года назад +7

      Couldn't you just see all of them at once?

    • @BettyAlexandriaPride
      @BettyAlexandriaPride 2 года назад +3

      @@weckar That depends on the layout of the store and the amount of people in line. If the isles are too close in relation to the check out line, you would most likely only be able to see 4-7 at a time. If there are 20 check out lines, due to the narrow path between the isles and the checkout line, you won't be able to get a large enough angle from your vantage point to see all of the lines at once. Your chances are basically doubled if you start towards the middle of the 20 lines because you can look to the left and right of yourself. This happens to me at most Walmarts or chain grocery stores in my city.
      But if it's a smaller store, then you're definitely right.
      Have a nice day, I hope that made sense. I have a brain injury so it might not have. 😅

    • @radekutherknapcok5409
      @radekutherknapcok5409 2 года назад +3

      I actually stop before 1/3 when the first ones are empty, this is slightly different from this problem, because you sometimes know, there can't be better option later.

    • @Roerco
      @Roerco 2 года назад

      it’s just like the way to pick the best toilet stall strategy.

    • @NoGravityWolf
      @NoGravityWolf 11 месяцев назад +2

      Couldn't you just go back

  • @C.Sharpe
    @C.Sharpe 5 лет назад +380

    Actually no I opened up youtube and accidentally tapped on this video...
    Edit: kinda glad I did though!

    • @aethar2750
      @aethar2750 5 лет назад

      Caleb Flores same

    • @RadicalRaspberry2
      @RadicalRaspberry2 5 лет назад +1

      auto play

    • @aderlinediaz1744
      @aderlinediaz1744 5 лет назад +1

      I actually added this video in my watch later list and then came back to it :/

    • @WastedTalent83
      @WastedTalent83 5 лет назад

      actually is youtube that suggest the video on the right side, and since i usually watch V sauce videos i just did it. i don't think there was any chances in play lol

    • @Groozer330
      @Groozer330 5 лет назад +1

      Actually I open every video I want in a new tab and continue scrolling

  • @ichangedmyyoutubename6219
    @ichangedmyyoutubename6219 4 года назад +179

    plot twist: the first number was the highest

    • @9nikolai
      @9nikolai 4 года назад +6

      If the first number is the highest, you will probably know the moment you see it :P

    • @cjfdnqkn4374
      @cjfdnqkn4374 3 года назад +3

      But wut if the first number was 10

    • @murphyhines4470
      @murphyhines4470 3 года назад +2

      @@cjfdnqkn4374 there’s still a 1/3 chance of being right

    • @loonypandaz
      @loonypandaz 3 года назад +1

      The first number was lower than the second?

    • @TomiWebPro
      @TomiWebPro 5 месяцев назад

      it still works because the first munber is very unlikely to be the best amongst the vast selections and the probably is extremely low

  • @nuclear_pigeons8762
    @nuclear_pigeons8762 5 лет назад +178

    False Kevin, I see vsauce, I click. I didn't scan lol

    • @laserbean00001
      @laserbean00001 5 лет назад +4

      How did you see vsauce without scanning? In your case, the first video you saw was Vsauce. Or maybe you determined the most optimum video to watch was vsauce and therefore just chose the first Vsauce video you saw. In either case you still had to "scan" through the videos.

    • @CatIsMad
      @CatIsMad 5 лет назад +4

      @@laserbean00001 Hey bud, take a joke

    • @laserbean00001
      @laserbean00001 5 лет назад

      @@CatIsMad If that was a joke, it was a really poor attempt in my opinion.

    • @jessebalsam6475
      @jessebalsam6475 5 лет назад

      obviously its a joke, he said lol

    • @gracefulslumber8441
      @gracefulslumber8441 5 лет назад

      Haha mine was on auto play

  • @robertsaffordiii9437
    @robertsaffordiii9437 5 лет назад +735

    Simple. Marry the first girl, who isn't bored by this video.

    • @cobalius
      @cobalius 4 года назад +14

      I'm applying for getting one those girls. 1 to go pls

    • @sansleskeleton5570
      @sansleskeleton5570 4 года назад +6

      E

    • @Palettegirl
      @Palettegirl 4 года назад +25

      The joke's on you, me and my girlfriend both weren't bored with this video; the two girls who weren't got together instead 😆

    • @puzzleduser
      @puzzleduser 4 года назад +15

      how can you get bored by this? lmao

    • @SpookyCloud1785
      @SpookyCloud1785 4 года назад +6

      @@puzzleduser lol the first comment was a year ago and this video is still being watched (epic)

  • @NStripleseven
    @NStripleseven 3 года назад +4

    The thing with a lot of these generalized optimization of stopping problems is that you know the best spot you can find, or at least the limit that you’d be happy with. For instance, I may not know that this is the best video on the entirety of the internet, but it’s one that I will find enjoyment in watching, so I watched it.

    • @larryrobx
      @larryrobx 10 месяцев назад

      A satisficing decision criterion.

  • @non-inertialobserver946
    @non-inertialobserver946 5 лет назад +155

    So lastpass is why you haven't forgotten your password, unlike vsauce 1 and 3

  • @JackLinton
    @JackLinton 5 лет назад +103

    I was in the middle of watching another video until a got the notification for Kevin’s video. Long story short, bye bye other video!

  • @psitticosaurus6190
    @psitticosaurus6190 5 лет назад +60

    Kevin: let's get euel-y
    Ricardo: *_been there done that_*

  • @demitrischoenwald1436
    @demitrischoenwald1436 5 лет назад +18

    "You played the Game of Googol to choose to watch this video about the Game of Googol."
    *INCEPTION HORN INTENSIFIES*

  • @saltypotatochip4707
    @saltypotatochip4707 5 лет назад +103

    *watches video, then pulls out notebook and figures out love life using e*

    • @qtulhoo
      @qtulhoo 5 лет назад +2

      USERNAME NOT FOUND
      *(0 ÷ e) - (Asexual + Unattractive + Antisocial) = 0*
      :(

    • @alspezial2747
      @alspezial2747 5 лет назад

      @@qtulhoo
      as far as i know you just have to be as confident and selfish as you can possibly be and women will want you. am 23 and had only 3 so far so am not really an expert.

    • @JackNick2000
      @JackNick2000 5 лет назад

      It will be Markiplier.

  • @coreforce9872
    @coreforce9872 3 года назад +9

    RUclips poll: *has 5 options in it*
    Everyone:
    2:19

    • @ibrahimali3192
      @ibrahimali3192 2 месяца назад

      i didnt understand

    • @coreforce9872
      @coreforce9872 2 месяца назад

      Two years ago, wether a RUclips poll had 5 options on it, users would purposefully select options where option 1, 3 and 5 have the most votes while options 2 and 4 had the least votes. This caused different lengths in the voting options resulting in a letter ‘E’.

  • @TheYodaman22
    @TheYodaman22 5 лет назад +17

    I like it how he’s like
    “we won’t want to stop at 9 cause the chances are we would have passed over the highest number”
    ...and then it turns out to be 9 😂

  • @glumbortango7182
    @glumbortango7182 5 лет назад +187

    Is LastPass the reason you're the only one uploading regularly, and/or is this sponsorship a message to the other Vsauces?

    • @visaelites4694
      @visaelites4694 5 лет назад +15

      The thing is he is using Chrome password manager in his demo the lastpass one looks entirely different

    • @glumbortango7182
      @glumbortango7182 5 лет назад +1

      @@visaelites4694 Ok, I just thought he used it since he _said he's been using it since about a year ago._

    • @phrax6767
      @phrax6767 5 лет назад +5

      Kabalan Zahouri I use LastPass and it looks like the one he had pulled up

    • @PrimeDiam
      @PrimeDiam 5 лет назад

      @@phrax6767 That isn't lastpass, that's google.

    • @phrax6767
      @phrax6767 5 лет назад +1

      The Prime Diam oh I see we are talking about different parts. Yes that’s google

  • @owliviabelly
    @owliviabelly 4 года назад +25

    “You’re Johannes Kepler, and I’m BACHELORETTE NUMBER 5.”
    Kevin Vsause2

  • @snazz1363
    @snazz1363 5 лет назад +666

    This won’t help me find the love of my life because 0 divided by e is still 0
    Edit: 2 days after posting this comment someone I really like asked me out o_o

    • @parkerleith9038
      @parkerleith9038 5 лет назад +8

      Feels bad man

    • @dirm12
      @dirm12 5 лет назад +14

      What if you divide by zero?

    • @psychoazon4628
      @psychoazon4628 5 лет назад +18

      No its still 1 you got hope buddy

    • @whynotgp1058
      @whynotgp1058 5 лет назад +34

      That's the magic of e...never doubt it again.

    • @snazz1363
      @snazz1363 5 лет назад +6

      why not Gp
      \o/ praise 2.72

  • @KnightSlasher
    @KnightSlasher 5 лет назад +156

    Not if I quit before you tell me to quit, that's it I quit

    • @sowjuice
      @sowjuice 5 лет назад +3

      Spongebob SquarePants I quit

    • @kazumades5283
      @kazumades5283 5 лет назад

      lol what? never mind I quit

    • @DragoBot
      @DragoBot 5 лет назад +1

      @@kazumades5283 i dont understand, oh well might as well quit

    • @cadensouthard2428
      @cadensouthard2428 5 лет назад +1

      But what if you quit because someone tells you to quit since you dont quit now you'll have to quit later but since you are quitting in the moment based on anothers actions, is it really quitting?

  • @Pragalbhgarg
    @Pragalbhgarg 3 года назад +5

    I ran a program to test the accuracy of this method and its actually very close to 1/3. Sometimes maths just blows me.

    • @wessltov
      @wessltov 2 года назад

      For me, a programmer, math just tends to f*ck me a lot.
      Does that mean I'm luckier or unluckier than you?

  • @toxickandy9669
    @toxickandy9669 5 лет назад +428

    This only works if you know the number of choices you have.

    • @SDCGI
      @SDCGI 4 года назад +11

      Toxic Kandy ofc is part of the equation

    • @enrique.guzman891
      @enrique.guzman891 4 года назад +15

      @@SDCGI you can also count them individually. Even if it's like a trillion or something that you have to count. It optimizes your probability if you use the equation.

    • @mdenouden3y6
      @mdenouden3y6 4 года назад

      If the numbers are randomly split in a group of googol and you take a sample group of a usuable amount of numbers, wouldn't that ensure that the theory still works and is therefor useable on any group size that is randonly distributed?
      Like Kevin did with his group of ten.

    • @Chizypuff
      @Chizypuff 4 года назад +6

      @@enrique.guzman891 I think he meant when the number of choices is indeterminate, like dating. How many options would you have if you just kept dating?

    • @ESPONO974
      @ESPONO974 4 года назад +9

      @@Chizypuff You can apply it to time as well. Lets say you start dating at 18 and you'd want to be married by 35. Date, but don't marry anyone you meet before 24 yo (37% of the way) and than propose to the next person you date that's better than every person before that. But of course you need to assume things and set a limit, to be able to calculate the 37%.

  • @sean..L
    @sean..L 5 лет назад +399

    Pronouncing the o in googol so you don’t get demonetized.

    • @aidanflynn2037
      @aidanflynn2037 5 лет назад +10

      This guy nah google owns RUclips

    • @sean..L
      @sean..L 5 лет назад +27

      Aidan Flynn You can never be too safe.

    • @cyanid3311
      @cyanid3311 5 лет назад +12

      I don't think it works that way .... Proper nouns can't be copyright claimed for saying them xD

    • @ultimasdragon7840
      @ultimasdragon7840 5 лет назад +22

      Actually Google gets its name from Googol, but they misspelled it.

    • @PatrickM-nw3ss
      @PatrickM-nw3ss 5 лет назад +15

      @@ultimasdragon7840 Intentionally

  • @royalranger5863
    @royalranger5863 4 года назад +48

    Vsauce: You didn’t scroll through every RUclips video and decide to watch this one.
    Me: Um... sure 😬

  • @hedgeearthridge6807
    @hedgeearthridge6807 5 лет назад +50

    Lord Farquaad chose Bachelorette number 3/3. Didnt work in his favor that time...

  • @krisdoesart9643
    @krisdoesart9643 5 лет назад +100

    Person: "How was work?"
    Kevin: "Today I said, 'Let's get oily' and then quit"

  • @BlueverseGacha
    @BlueverseGacha 3 года назад +1

    "you played The Game Of Googol to watch this video"
    *me who can watch infinite videos if I wanted:* "nah…"

  • @snekksuperior
    @snekksuperior 5 лет назад +319

    I have a crippling among us addiction

  • @SemiMono
    @SemiMono 5 лет назад +9

    This is one of the best recent vsauce2 videos. I like it when he starts making connections outside of the math problem to the real world.

  • @EnterJustice
    @EnterJustice 4 года назад +3

    Essentially - if you need to maximize by choosing 1 item from a set where the options are presented 1 at a time:
    1. Define the "maximum score" in this context.
    2. How many items are in this set (or: how much time do you have to choose)?
    3. Go through n/e options (roughly 10% more than 1/3) and keep track of the item with the best score.
    4. Go through the remaining options (or time) and select the first item with a higher score than the one you had.

    • @larryrobx
      @larryrobx 10 месяцев назад

      @@mathguy37 Yes. But, EnterJustice's suggested heuristic of "10% more than 1/3" is more easily remembered, imho.

  • @SupaDanteX
    @SupaDanteX 5 лет назад +59

    So the basic idea is, look at 37% of the items, and pick the next item that beats all of the first 37%.
    But then what if the biggest number happens to be in that first 37%? You just get whatever number is at the end in that case.

    • @usualunusualkid7149
      @usualunusualkid7149 2 года назад +24

      That's why the strategy only works 1/e of the time

    • @jaxnaturals
      @jaxnaturals Год назад +2

      Think about life choices. You will still have a great chance to make the top 10% of all choices. Life isn't always about being first or the best on every decision. But making close to the best will keep you on a forward moving path

    • @CellXD
      @CellXD 10 месяцев назад

      Thats why u lose 1/3 times over there and have a 1/3 chance to get a number greater than the first 3rd and get less than the last 1/3rd adding up to 2/3rd losing rate
      Pretty simple??

    • @willshad
      @willshad 7 месяцев назад

      @@CellXD It seems like you'd have a 1/3 chance of it being the highest number selected SO FAR, but afar lesser chance of it being the highest number out of all of them.

  • @evo683
    @evo683 5 лет назад +26

    Awesome video! Really like how you used the Googol game to explain the quitting processes of the human brain.

  • @tylerrothman4748
    @tylerrothman4748 2 года назад +4

    I love how Kevin always completely confuses us right before ending the video

  • @skippin
    @skippin 5 лет назад +7

    *_"That this is the RUclips video I am gonna watch, without realising you played the game of googol while watching a video about googol"_*
    You got me there

    • @parthinaxe
      @parthinaxe 5 лет назад +2

      xd Sanad “googoo”
      Lol

    • @skippin
      @skippin 5 лет назад

      @@parthinaxe lmao

  • @Zibouloubloub
    @Zibouloubloub 5 лет назад +22

    I matched Tinderette 5... 10/10 works 37% of the time

  • @RadiantSharaShaymin
    @RadiantSharaShaymin 4 года назад +4

    Giving me a mental crisis here - e is such an amazing and helpful thing in calculations, yet it's the bane of my existence as a Medic main...

  • @arnavsingh7525
    @arnavsingh7525 5 лет назад +7

    lmfao when u see em partial derivatives in a paper and you’re like
    Umm.... FORGET ITT

  • @The_GamingChef
    @The_GamingChef 5 лет назад +10

    I do this for things on sale. I'll pick a price after seeing it go on sale a couple times and if it ever goes under that price I buy it

  • @BeingJohan
    @BeingJohan 4 года назад +2

    I was startled for a second when he said, "You're Johannes" and I was like, "How'd you know?" o.o 😂

  • @monolizm
    @monolizm 5 лет назад +42

    this and many more fun math in *Algorithms to live by*

  • @cd2069
    @cd2069 5 лет назад +5

    This is like when you're trying to find loot in CoC. You're happy that you found 500k gold, but you never know if you'll get more if you skipped..

    • @denniskueh6165
      @denniskueh6165 5 лет назад

      so you need to skip (the amount of players in coc)/e to find the best loot, assumung that everyone is active and at the same rank

  • @HDDStrider
    @HDDStrider 3 года назад +1

    "you scanned some options and picked me"
    nah man i had autoplay on lol

  • @user-jq1my2iz4o
    @user-jq1my2iz4o 5 лет назад +127

    Vsauce! Kevin’s here and today i gonna show you a very cool game!
    -Kevin left the game.

    • @Argonwolfproject
      @Argonwolfproject 5 лет назад

      It seems the only way to win... is not to play.

  • @browhy6486
    @browhy6486 5 лет назад +83

    Vsauce fingers here, where are your Michaels?

  • @vertex1047
    @vertex1047 Год назад +6

    okay guys, so asumming we'll all live up to 80 years old, the optimal stopping theory tells us that we should marry which ever woman we find better than all the other's we've met after we get to 29 years old. So I'd expect everyone reading this comment to stay single until you get to 29.

    • @MatthewConnellan-xc3oj
      @MatthewConnellan-xc3oj 3 месяца назад +1

      Nice, that leaves a long time to enjoy adulthood without the burden of a wife.

    • @whollyshift7782
      @whollyshift7782 Месяц назад

      So, I am now 30 let the best man win lol😂🎉

    • @whollyshift7782
      @whollyshift7782 Месяц назад

      @@MatthewConnellan-xc3oj😂

  • @lukam8815
    @lukam8815 5 лет назад +6

    BY QUITTING!
    Me:ties a noose

  • @amadis8892
    @amadis8892 5 лет назад +90

    your theory is not true.
    Vsauce 2 is always the channel i'm gonna watch.
    gotcha

  • @joec1920
    @joec1920 10 месяцев назад +1

    I remember learning about online algorithms in CS classes. Never get the chance to use it in real world applications, but they sure are fun to think about.

  • @mattgsm
    @mattgsm 5 лет назад +28

    Numberphile did a video of this about choosing the best cubicle at a concert

    • @gabor6259
      @gabor6259 5 лет назад

      The Mathematical Way Of Choosing A Toilet.

    • @darealpoopster
      @darealpoopster 5 лет назад +1

      Matt GSM Yeah, with that hot girl

    • @eternalreign2313
      @eternalreign2313 5 лет назад +3

      @@gabor6259 That would depend on the urgency, but you might want to choose the first one available xD.

    • @gabor6259
      @gabor6259 5 лет назад

      @@eternalreign2313, yeah, you don't really do maths in your head when the grizzly wants to break free.

    • @HubertHeller
      @HubertHeller 5 лет назад

      Can you let us know the link to the Numberphile video you mention. I couldn't find it.

  • @KarlssonF
    @KarlssonF 5 лет назад +24

    on tinder im just gonna swipe 37% away and then go for the next better one, EASY!

    • @SirPhysics
      @SirPhysics 5 лет назад +4

      unfortunately to swipe through 37% you'd need to know in advance how many potential matches you have. That said, I'm actually pretty curious how a pickup line based on the optimal stopping theorem would go over. Almost tempted to try.

    • @themoistegg
      @themoistegg 5 лет назад +5

      SirPhysics the optimal time to stop doing that is now

    • @RespectYourViews
      @RespectYourViews 5 лет назад +1

      @@SirPhysics Do you need to know how many matches you have? or just how many you are willing to look at? If you are only willing to look at say 100 people then it doesnt matter if you actually have 500 matches. just apply 37% to w/e number of people you actually are willing to look at. ofc tinder, or similar algorithms do not limit you to just picking one, and picking or not picking will influence future options.

    • @danmcshane6004
      @danmcshane6004 5 лет назад

      No because you can choose more than one

  • @991vk
    @991vk 4 года назад

    There are 16 recommendations of videos on youtube below a particular video, and I have always unknowingly chosen the best out of first 5. Idk why??

  • @Subscriberswithtwovideos-gr6tk
    @Subscriberswithtwovideos-gr6tk 5 лет назад +10

    I never quit with the power of the sauce

  • @william160833
    @william160833 5 лет назад +32

    E is the one of the most important things in math, the english language, and even computers.
    Oh look at that, 3 choices and 1 was disowned, it's 1/3!
    RIP internet explorer chan.

  • @savajevtic8040
    @savajevtic8040 3 года назад +2

    2:55 "We need to flip Euler upside down"
    I hoped there was gonna be a schwa joke and I was disappointed

  • @andrewjones1143
    @andrewjones1143 5 лет назад +21

    I love how instead of an APA citation you literally just threw the paper off screen.

  • @imscared299
    @imscared299 5 лет назад +10

    me: oh hey kevin uploaded t-
    my friend: *w h e r e ‘ s m i c h a e l*

  • @shima_galera
    @shima_galera 4 года назад +3

    VSauce2: **pretends to read The Game of Googol solution**
    Me: Wow he has a reading power of 4000 wpm

  • @justaregulartoaster
    @justaregulartoaster 5 лет назад +5

    Actually i watched your 1000 vs 1000 plus 0 or 1000000 candies video and saw this in the recommended, wanted to look at my subscriptions first and came back to this video later. So jokes on you!

  • @Majestic469
    @Majestic469 5 лет назад +26

    *"when do we start stopping?"*
    smashes phone to the floor*

    • @thelocaldisgrace5897
      @thelocaldisgrace5897 5 лет назад

      i dont even know why but this comment specifically killed me-

    • @Stapher
      @Stapher 4 года назад

      Smashes phone on floor in a confused scream after finding out that E is actually a number*

  • @shaneokeigan6150
    @shaneokeigan6150 Год назад +1

    I actually did not use heuristics for the Game of Google to find this video.
    The algorithm dragged me here and I went along for the ride. So RUclips played the Game of Google for me.

  • @PatricHerrera
    @PatricHerrera 5 лет назад +6

    3:39
    Did we just get Old MacDonalded?
    E I E I 0

  • @spiderdude2099
    @spiderdude2099 5 лет назад +7

    What I took away from this:
    Date, maybe 4 people then settle for the best one after that. Soul mate success chance 33%

    • @pekuja
      @pekuja 5 лет назад +2

      Well, it depends on what you consider the entire pool of mates. If 11 people is the most you're willing to date before settling down, then that's correct.

    • @spiderdude2099
      @spiderdude2099 5 лет назад

      @@pekuja you're right, I take it back, date 10000/e people then find the best one after that

    • @desarankoe3939
      @desarankoe3939 5 лет назад +1

      @@pekuja Actually, if you are willing to date 11 possible mates and then settle down, you should actually meet all 11 of them, cause there's no rule you have to choose the last one met, you can marry the best of the whole pool. Unless of course, the cost of meet-ups is prohibitively high.

    • @pekuja
      @pekuja 5 лет назад

      @@desarankoe3939 I think the point is that you won't know if you're a good match until you've actually dated them, and you probably can't date and break up with ten people and then get back together with the one you liked best. Also, it's not that you have 11 people preselected, but it's the 11 potential people you'd date over a long time. You probably don't know all of them to start with.

    • @desarankoe3939
      @desarankoe3939 5 лет назад

      Pekka Kujansuu Oh, i guess youre right, you kinda cant go back. Guess theres more to that problem than the algorithmic aspect.

  • @stephenhare7369
    @stephenhare7369 4 года назад +3

    You have taken on a combination of mathematics and human-deciding making in one clip, and I truly understood it! Thank you.

  • @chasmkek
    @chasmkek 5 лет назад +21

    Can you show last pass to vSauce, I think he might need it

  • @stopstaringandsubscribe5189
    @stopstaringandsubscribe5189 5 лет назад +68

    Guys, keep your money safe, don't gamble with kevin......

  • @HollywoodF1
    @HollywoodF1 3 года назад

    Choosing the best wedding cake.
    “OK, we’re going to try 16 cakes today...”
    -“well, we’ll try at least 7.”

  • @josiahmartin329
    @josiahmartin329 5 лет назад +35

    you look like the next farcry villian

  • @immigrant4556
    @immigrant4556 5 лет назад +5

    Man your right I quit San Andreas after the train mission

  • @juppschmitz1974
    @juppschmitz1974 3 года назад

    I actually scrolled through about 40 videos and went back to this one...

  • @riileyp
    @riileyp 5 лет назад +5

    It isn’t a Vsauce2 video without the “VSAUCE, KEVIN HERE! [insert crazy thing here]”

    • @blue9139
      @blue9139 5 лет назад

      Common words:
      Vsauce: or is it?
      Vsauce 2:. WRONG

  • @moistenedwall1003
    @moistenedwall1003 4 года назад +11

    "The key is e"
    Markiplier: *Traumatic flashbacks*

    • @carealoo744
      @carealoo744 4 года назад

      Can someone explain that meme to me?

    • @sansleskeleton5570
      @sansleskeleton5570 4 года назад +1

      E

    • @AirLight1646
      @AirLight1646 3 года назад +1

      @@carealoo744 no one understands it, the only thing everyone understands is *e*

    • @Ltwpe
      @Ltwpe 2 года назад +1

      e

  • @JimmyVermeer
    @JimmyVermeer 9 месяцев назад

    I don't need to scroll through every RUclips video, as soon as I see "Vsauce2" I know it's gonna be a good one. And I don't have to commit to just one, I can watch all of them.

  • @nickinoko
    @nickinoko 5 лет назад +5

    This looks like that paradox where you had to switch doors to win a farari, basically you have to flip 33% and after that accept any number that comes close to whatever is the highest you had up to that point

  • @Piotr_Tokarz
    @Piotr_Tokarz 4 года назад +5

    Markiplier knew that E is important

  • @kayden6695
    @kayden6695 4 года назад

    Kevin: Hang on papers, I need to talk about numbers.
    Numbers on other sides of papers: *For real?*

  • @brand0lakes
    @brand0lakes 5 лет назад +12

    My subconscious thoughts can be translated into a mathematical equation. Neat.

  • @stylesmarshall6990
    @stylesmarshall6990 5 лет назад +4

    This is now one of my favorite Kevin videos

  • @cajudd8403
    @cajudd8403 4 года назад

    I never thought I would revisit a video about probability and game theory so I could relearn a formula that would allow me to manipulate the stalk market in Animal Crossing and yet here we are

  • @anaya1524
    @anaya1524 5 лет назад +99

    You need a high IQ to get the *"E"*

    • @JuanEsquivel-ex8nv
      @JuanEsquivel-ex8nv 5 лет назад +2

      Tbh you need a high iq to understand richarf and mortimer

    • @kayflexcee1
      @kayflexcee1 5 лет назад +6

      despacito2

    • @quartnoire
      @quartnoire 5 лет назад +1

      *E*

    • @mimi.paloma_
      @mimi.paloma_ 5 лет назад

      my IQ is EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

    • @theRealRindberg
      @theRealRindberg 5 лет назад

      If you get an E and think that's high your IQ isn't high

  • @pt_1
    @pt_1 5 лет назад +15

    V-Sauce 2 : Hey V-Sauce here....
    Me : *QUITS THE VIDEO IMMEDIATELY*
    Also Me : So what now??

  • @powerinknowledge2392
    @powerinknowledge2392 3 года назад

    The thing that truly makes this a game is the fact you do not know what is behind the cards, in order for it to be a game someone else had to set the cards up and for them it is not a game.

  • @willchick
    @willchick 5 лет назад +6

    I watched this video because I subscribe to VSauce2 and watched you since Julius Bloop. No math, just loyalty!