How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
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- Опубликовано: 19 июн 2024
- For decades, Americans have been moving south and west. That migration pattern become apparent in American politics, when seven congressional districts moved states after the 2020 census, and it continues to be visible in the booming construction and job markets in cities across the Sun Belt.
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen speaks with author Jake Bittle, who argues that it’s only a matter of time before those trends reverse, or at least shift. Although, this time, he writes in his new book "The Great Displacement," it won’t be cheap housing, low taxes and plentiful jobs that attract people to new places. It will be a worsening climate that pushes them away.
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When insurance companies move out of an entire state, you know we are in trouble.
It has already happened in FL for home insurance.
How does the movement of their corporate buddies out of Florida not signal to them that the climate has changed. They are on the frontlines of climate change, have the receipts, and left!!! Its like not paying attention to ants leaving their ground based nests for the trees. The first sign of a disaster about to happen. Of course, I heard they already don't insure many parts of the coast that is not as upscale as Florida's coastline.
Former California resident checking in, I feel that!
Half of Florida will be underwater in 10 years. Get out while you can.
@@user-tb7rn1il3q hurricane season this year will be disastrous
Homeowner insurance companies are already starting to pull away from these high-risk areas, and thats an indication of whats to come.
Indeed. Won't be able to buy homes where no insurance exists
Wonder if they can ensure my access to water in Phoenix.
@@craigb8228 The CAP can be shut off under certain supply conditions. Imagine no water in any of the Phoenix canals. This is gonna get ugly.
Imagine having a five million dollar home and you cant sell it for $5 million, since you cannot get Insurance on it!
Maybe some rich person would pay ONE million, since maybe a Millionaire does not care about Insurance.
But the Real Estate values are gonna crash!
@@rdelrosso1973 This is how the massive wall street rental home corporations will squeeze out home owners too. Raise property taxes and insuance. You can't afford to compete with them. Until they own all the homes, and everyone rents.
Sell while you still can (to a greater fool). People are still buying in Arizona and Texas, like idiots. I did my research, a LOT of it and moved to the Cumberland Plateau in mid-eastern TN. 2000 ft elevation, mild year round climate, abundant rain, tornadoes don't hit often because of the elevation, minimal flooding risks and too far inland for hurricanes. At some point much of the US won't be all that habitable and the housing prices will crash. The other thing to consider is that a LOT of people are immigrating due to climate change as well as governmental issues in their own countries. There will be an influx of climate migrants from all over and there is NO STOPPING IT. Doesn't matter if you build a wall or complain about it. We're talking desperate people who can't grow food anymore in their native villages. They don't want to move, they have to. ProPublica has been doing a great series on this.
correction, "how climate change will reshape where american *Working Class* live"
the top 1% dont have to give a shit about flooding cities when they own a house in every country.
billionaires like bill gates are buying property in coastal Florida and NC
The top 1% is a mix. No issue is purely black and white
@darkranger116:
Surely not EVERY country!
There are 196 Countries on the Planet.
Maybe in only six or seven Countries!
Nature eventually has the last word, ALWAYS! So the best strategy is to work WITH nature, not against it.
Ft Myers, here. Ian and Irma have already shown that the cost of living here is growing too expensive. Insurance, repair costs and infrastructure will end non-upper class living within 20 years.
The upper class won't survive without other classes near by
Which has nothing to do with “climate change”
One factor I didn't hear mentioned is the likelihood of increases in displacements from South, central American and Caribbean nations that will experience dramatic effects of climate change. I would think a refugee surges would certainly effect population numbers in cities like Miami, Huston, Phoenix. Or even northern areas where we'll become more dependent on agricultural outputs as southern agriculture becomes less reliable.
they already are what are you talking about people are flooding into the united states of america in droves from south america
because the government lets them in
@@deanjulian6189 Wait, you think you have seen immigration now? Ahahaha, that's cute.
The main factor i did not here that at temperature's over 38 degrees for 5 days will result in pollinators dying , when their gone every thing on land goes very soon after, the sea life can survive with planet killing humans , Its the temperature of the water that will kill them.
politician`s with religious belief's are now the only barrier to doing what we must.
@@deanjulian6189t！天！！！
When Mount St Helen’s blew up, there was an old guy that refused to leave so, of course, the volcano took him. Some people just refuse to leave. I think some just don’t see any alternatives.
CC will NOT be addressed until those that have commoditized EVERYTHING, (you, me debt, food, goods that we buy, the very essential and luxury items), start to see their investments fail to return, in the form they love the most.... Money.
Thank you for uploading and sharing.
Wealthy people have bought out the water rights for many areas of the country.
Climate change and temperature rise is problematic. However, lack of food, shelter, water, power, and safety will become the real issue as we all get squeezed!
I've told my 4 children to never move from where we live in n NYS,unless it's to go farther north. I have a feeling within their lifetime even state borders will close to people unless they have enough $ or a job already lined up.
Good advice.
I moved to northern NY last year, and even if you aren't as concerned about the effects of climate change, it's a decent place to escape from the housing crisis. There's this huge fad for tiny homes and it's so trendy to brag about how "cheap" they are, but it's cheaper to just buy an old house in the North Country. And the job market isn't even that terrible.
Lol. Your federal government can't even control its borders. Do you realy think state borders within the US will close and prevent people from crossing?!
I agree. The states should not allow people in from other states. That is why we need to vote for Republicans who also won't bring in people from outside the country.
@@tubecontributor3206 that's not what I said at all
Baloney
I just hope something is put in place soon for Florida. The rest of the country shouldn't have to pay for residents that choose to stay in locations that need help every year.
"If you were the doctor and we were the patient," the anchor asks, "what's your prognosis? A thousand years, two thousand years?" The scientist's response takes him aback: "A person has already been born who will die due to catastrophic failure of the planet."
McAvoy: You're saying the situation is dire?
EPA guy: Not exactly. Your house is burning to the ground, the situation is dire. Your house has already burned to the ground, the situation is over.
McAvoy: So what can we do to reverse this?
EPA: Well there's a lot we could do...
McAvoy (interrupts): Good...
EPA: ...20 years ago, or even 10 years ago. But now, no.
McAvoy (becoming increasingly uncomfortable): Can you make an analogy that might help us understand?
EPA: Sure. It's as if you're sitting in your car, in your garage, with the engine running and the door closed, and you've slipped into unconsciousness. And that's it.
McAvoy: What if someone comes and opens the door?
EPA: You're already dead.
McAvoy: What if the person got there in time?
EPA: Then you'd be saved.
McAvoy: OK. So now what's the CO2 equivalent of the getting there on time?
EPA: Shutting off the car 20 years ago.
McAvoy: You sound like you're saying it's hopeless.
EPA: Yeah.
The army core of engineers has actually caused more problems in places than helped. The 93 flood and floods since then along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. There are now small towns along the river that really never flooded or just a minor flood. But so many locks, dams, and most importantly the levies. There were small areas where people bought new homes in new communities and then a levie got built around it. All these things are taking away the marsh lands and the other places where the water used to have a place to go. In the mean time older small towns aren't given any protection because they aren't considered worth it, not even taking into account the history of those towns. But when these levies break homes are not just not flooded they are completely washed away. There are some things that can be done now, but it actually means taking down some protections that should never been done in the first place. In most floods on the river the core refuses to really do anything, it's always been private land owners that own the levies on their land that will dynamite their own levies to keep more small towns from flooding, even if that means their entire crop will be destroyed. Instead of protecting stupid people that move into a flood plain fully knowing it's one, should be the one's that lose, not the people that have lived on the river for generations.
for three generations our family lived on the northern fringe of Colorado's urban corridor. then our climate greatly heated up and dried out. we went from a handful of summer days in the 90's and approximately 19" of annual precipitation to most days going well above 90F and several above 100F coupled with precipitation plummeting to less than 15". with a few acres of land to care for and the need to run the air conditioning virtually all the time, besides monthly water bills of around $350 for half the year, so we chose to sell and look for "greener pastures."
the criteria we used to choose where our new home would be were water availability, climate and cost of living. we ended up moving to one of our state's mountain 'parks' e.g. valleys surrounded by mountains on all sides. we get runoff water from all those. so much so during the summer we are able to use our basement sump pump to water the yard, no town water. the climate is near identical to what we had along the front range prior to 2000. most days the high temperatures range from the upper 70's to low 80's never a 90F day. we don't get damaging hail, no tornadoes, no hurricanes, no earthquakes and bonus the cost of living is significantly less here.
point being there are already increasing numbers of climate migrants even in a place like Colorado. long time residents that have the means are relocating knowing the sky high cost of mountain property will only continue it's upward trend and we expect the pace to accelerate as our climate continues to warm. being at 8500' in elevation has been a godsend. moving was difficult but we're very glad we did.
We left the UK for Canada 10 years ago. 93 yo great-grandmother, 84 yo great-grandmother, my parents, my sisters and their families, and my family. Found a valley where 2 rivers meet that has experienced and is projected to experience more precipitation. We're high enough up the valley to not worry about flooding. The area is lower risk for forest fires. It's a lovely goldilocks climate. 4 houses on a few hundred acres and this works well for us. No more power bills or water bills and we grow a good chunk of our own food.
My grandparents retired early in the 70's and started a farm. As a kid my great-grandmother told me it used to snow every year. It snowed every 3rd or 4th winter when I was a kid. Now it snows even less than that. South England has a drought every year and it rains more in Paris than London now. Palm trees used to only grow on the tip of Cornwall but now you can grow them in Norfolk. London's becoming a tinderbox every summer. Used to leave the UK for guaranteed sunshine for summer holidays but no point now. It's sunny every summer now.
There are so many places that it isn't going to be pleasant to stay.
Major risk in mountainous areas must be sudden extreme flooding, hopefully you both took that in account to really be high up enough when choosing your new home turf.
Otherwise as a Dutchman I'm a bit ... well, never mind.
Still enjoying the wide open skies, I'm not that young to need fear the final flood. At the same time, our summers.. this year's a damp exception, but like in UK sun holidays are no longer needed. Snow and Ice are getting rare, but up North at my parents house, they still get a week worth of frosty nights and the odd flake.
@@runningfromabear8354 I'm in Canada, do you mind me asking vaguely where you are? Looking to also move to a more climate friendly place within the country. Right now were on the coast. It's home, but maybe not wise to stay too long. Thanks.
People in US harp about the government a lot, but if we compare what the US government does (however imperfect or wasteful) compared to CCP’s response to typhoon doksuri, we should feel privileged for having a far more just governance system.
What a pleasure! The interviewer was prepared and curious. The interviewee was thoughtful and eloquent. The subject is becoming important. Nice job!
Having watched couple of "The Onion" sketches, I was a indeed bit suspicious what this brilliant algo came up with next.
Came out right... So far ;)
2050? You nuts?!
@@ericji8429 OK, maybe 2030.
Excellent interview with and expert guest, thank you. I have owned 5 homes in my several decades of life. When I found a home I was ready to write a down payment for, I always researched first where the flood plane is, are there forests or fuel for a fire close buy, and what other natural disasters were common. I've been lower to middle class all my life and never could afford a home on the beach or in the mountaines. But I never wanted one. I don't have any sympathy for those who can afford to live in such areas after a natural disaster. People live somewhere else as you are screwing up the insurance rates for the rest of us average people. And if you're stupid enough to move to Texas, good luck.
So which states should be the best as being weather proof against climate change, in your opinion?
Abbott would be enough to make me move, even if climate change wasn't real!
The Southwestern US is already hot and dry snd getting hotter and drier. Fires are a big problem. Where we are, summer temperatures can be from 95 to over 110. At anything much over 100, it is just dangerous to be outside of air conditioning. In the past, it would cool off at night. Also in the past, it was pleasant here for nine months of the year. But, the hot season is getting longer.
What is done when AC fails at 110°F.
Here in Europe, s same. The Mediteranian Area are so Hot, as never was... And where I live, north Germany, we got no snow since years, and too much rain, cause the Atlantic too warm. Exp. 1 day rain for a hole month, and it, s raining since 5 weeks,, watch:what Happend to the,, Wacken Open air,, today.
Try song:"Null positiv - Zukunft ungewiss" (about the clime change ending. 👍✌️Enjoy ger. Music
@@craigb8228 we Don, t have AC, s here..
95-110F with 80% humidity is common across the whole Midwest during the Summer months; tempered by the odd minus 27F day or three every February, and torrential rains, thunderstorms and tornadoes the rest of the year. Totally placid.
People in the SW have to rip out the Grass and plant Cactus in their front yards. It IS a desert.
And growing Almonds, that need a lot of water, does not make a LOT of sense in a Desert. Go grow Almonds somewhere else.
And the Golf Courses, that need to be watered?
Golf Courses? In a Desert? Really?
In Washington State where rivers flood about every 3-5 years, after financing new homes every 3-5 years, they changed the rules. To get money to rebuild, the living part of the homes needed to be at least 10-12 feet high. Lots homes are now sitting on top of tall garages or storage areas.
One option is to turn a house into a floating house. It will be installed on styrofoam similar to a Boathouse. And then of course it will be anchored in spot where the house will stay in place with four logs one at Each corner I'm inserted into a steel casing that's been pushed into the ground about 20 feet. The other option is telescoping poles that continue to telescope higher and higher as the star foam floats will keep the house above the water level goes back to ground it was settled back into alignment pins.
It was a real joy to listen to this. No political agenda, just hard facts and reasoned opinions and projections.
Well done!!
Thanks for the interview. My wife and I are already researching where we’re going to move to from Texas, for both climate change and political reasons. We’ve had 13 days of 105+ temperatures so far this year. No previous year with more than 4 such days. We will probably have over 20.
Paradigm shifts are hard, especially with so much sunk cost in infrastructure. Thanks for the deep dive.
I currently live in Alabama, where I came for (unsurprisingly) a good job and low cost of living. I've been looking at going back to the PNW eventually to be closer to family, and climate is becoming a tipping-point factor for me. It's not enough in and of itself to make me leave, but coupled with other individual factors, it could easily flip a lot of marginal situations like mine.
Paradigm shifts are hard when the ruling elite get their power from the status quo
It used to take me about an hour to drive from Bellingham to Seattle, but now, it often takes 2 hours. Sunday afternoon, Hiway 2 which travels east/west from eastern Washington to western Washington can be stop and go, and come to a complete standstill through the small towns.
@@kathygann7632 Aside from that, how do you like living in Bellingham?
@@utop999 best place in the world June through the middle of September then get ready for SAD Seasonal Affect Disorder from the middle of September till the middle of June because there is barely any sun, and the low clouds get depressing. Occasional storms that trap you in your house so you can’t leave the house for a week or so disrupt life, sometimes during Christmas week.
Shhhh- Kathy… The PNW infrastructure cannot handle the massive influx of people! As a local, I can barely afford housing- and I have a good job. The deterioration of the beauty places is off the chain. So many license plates from Ca, Tx, Fl, Az, NM…Co (ffs!) It’s understandable that people wish to be comfortable, but it is all so overwhelming.
The Great Lakes region has always been under appreciated.
Shhh
I don't think we need to be alarmist about calculations that it's cheaper to provide climate change "relief" rather than prevention: most people recognize that it's far more pleasant to experience $100 of renewable energy than to experience $60 of FEMA shelter
Home insurance will double & triple soon. Some states (Cali. & Fla.) will have no home insurance companies.
You obviously do not live in the Midwest. The storms are getting horrific, tornados are increasing in strength, which means destructive capacity, and while the main agricultural out put of the country comes from here, the weather has been damaging crops to an awful extent. While food costs are largely reliant on Cargill, and colleagues, 😢inflation of food prices will continue as the globe warms. Retired folks who can still do so would be wise to grow some vegetables in raised beds.
Developers make decisions based on how much money they can make. And too many politicians have been bought and are no longer doing their jobs. We need to get money OUT of politics.
I’m a janitor. My wife works at a grocery store. We own a three- bedroom house in St Paul. There are several reasons people are moving to MN
cuz statistically it’s an amazing state
I can’t afford to buy a house here in Idaho as so many people have moved in to the area. What was once 180k is now at least 400k. I often dream of moving somewhere else where I can actually afford to live and start a family.
The growth states are the southern states and western states
@@opey956 The Midwest and Northeast are the answer. St Paul is expensive as hell.
We're seeing people moving from south and Central America up here because their farms are failing. I suspect this will eventually affect where Americans live.
One thing that will likely impact all this: the Baby Boomers are dying off, and therefore their houses are about to change hands. Some estimates say that 25% of all US housing stock will go on the market in the next ~15 years. That's going to do weird things to the prices in communities with a high elderly population, especially in places where their kids live elsewhere and don't want to move back to their childhood home.
There will be twice as many humans in 2030 than 2000.
The longevity of Baby Boomers is quite high with many living now into their 90s especially since they are affluent. Also do you know the range of boomers- the youngest are 59 or 60. The reality is climate change is much faster than what was expected. Some of the younger people alive now, won't be in 50 years from now. I don't see much of an impact there.
@@craigb8228how is this going to happen? Not if Putin has anything to say about it. More wars will limit population growth, as well as contaminated water, etc. Biden and the military industrial complex will do their best to keep the population down. I have faith in them. 😢
@tubecontributor3206 Given the current poor living and working conditions, yes, that's always a possibility. Milllenials and Gen Z are overworked and underpaid. Inflation in America just keeps getting worse. Take FL for instance. It currently has the worst Inflation rate in the US to date. Younger workers are slowly leaving and taking their chances west.
@@DJVirgoNeun1 you forgot to complain about student loans
My parents had a placed that flood from a creek 2 x. they had lots of insurance - "full replacement policy" and the max Federal flood ins.
They had 10 acres, huge fish pond & 2000 sq ft house. After being bought out, they had enough money to bid on a HUD house - $1200 sq ft., one acre. 45 yr old Ethan Allen furniture given 'depreciation' value - which is enough to buy at a thrift store.
Taking this kind of hit is even worse if you have a family with young children. You will lose $, so buy wisely.
after the negative attitude america has suffered towards immigrants from Mexico and points south for many many decades
don't expect a warm welcome in the places you hope to migrate to. There will be huge world conflict over access to water in the coming decades and america will be on the short end of the stick.
Thank you Republicans, all that money from the fossil fuel industry was well spent.
This is an example of a journalist attempting to speak with authority on items they understand little of. The highest flood insurance in the country is typically in Vermont and Connecticut, at about $1400 a year. Florida flood insurance rates are about $700 a year. Flood insurance also provides coverage till $250k or the house value, the lower of the two. Homeowners can purchase excess flood insurance at about $1 per $100 excess home value over $250k, and the insurance only pays if you rebuild. The government does not buy you out, because that is labeled a handout by republicans and they won’t have any of it. Thus the government keeps paying up to $250k after each event, effectively incentivizing people to continue poor practices such as living in a flood plain.
On the other hand, there is homeowners insurance. That is actuarially priced and is actively disincentivizing people to live in places like coastal southwest and Florida. Except there too, the government steps in as an insurer of last resorts and continues to subsidize poor choices.
The problem is not so much which policy to adopt but the problem is government not imparting some tough love and telling bonehead homeowners to clean up and clear out of flood plains.
Also fossil fuels. Phuck them.
Great interview. Thanks!
Miami-Dade lost population in 2022 for the first time since 1970. Rising sea level might be one reason, but housing prices for now are the primary reason, possibly driven by the increasing cost of homeowners insurance linked to storm damage.
I don’t think people in northern states really want people to come back. Lol…
Before modern air conditioning, there were reverse snowbird Texans that went camping and fishing Colorado and Wyoming the summer.
On another subject, you briefly touched on the tribal or poorer communities of the coasts who are already going under, often in states that aren't willing to help those kinds of communities much (hence the low taxes). I predict this trend continue: billions, maybe trillions of dollars will be spent to ensure wealthier and less vulnerable Americans like us can stay where we are, whether that means switching to all renewables and recycled water like Irvine has almost achieved, or Manhattan's sea wall, or whatever the Miami moguls need. Meanwhile while poor and/or nonwhite communities like Lincoln, the Ninth Ward, or the Native tribe you mentioned on the Gulf Coast are pressured to move and shamed for not doing so, without conservative law groups stepping in to advocate for them or sufficient funds/jobs/a way to keep their communities together.
TL;DR: I think one of the biggest flaws in American systems climate change will and has already begun to expose is the way resources are allocated to bail out those least in need, rather than the reverse. I think it's going to accelerate inequity.
And I will note that both the French revolution and all the revolutions of 1848 happened when the Little ice Age was causing such an inequity gap, so we need to be careful. (Irony: it's starting to look like the Little Ice Age didn't end naturally; according to Earth's natural cycles we should be going into the next ice age now. But towards the end of the 19th century, about the time the science of climate change was first discovered, enough coal had been burnt from the Industrial Revolution to overtake natural climate cycles.)
There was a study done several years ago that found the Little Ice Age may have been caused by the killing of tens of millions of indigenous people in the Americas when the Europeans arrived. Interesting study.
Remember that trump said several times that global warming was not real
Not exactly.
On October 15, 2018, Trump told Leslie Stahl of 60 Minutes that:
"something is happening to the Climate and it's NOT man-made and it will
reverse itself in millions of years."
So why are we beating ourselves over the head about Climate Change and its subset, Global Warming? All we have to do is wait MILLIONS of years, and it will "fix itself"!
The Donald did not say HOW MANY millions of years!
Maybe only TWO MILLION years!
And about 75 million people voted for him to be President?
And we might elect him AGAIN in 2024?
I kinda agree. I'm from Atlanta, lived here almost my whole life. I'm planning on moving to the PNW partially for environmental reasons because it's so oppressively hot and I can't imagine living here my whole life.
After you can’t find a job and are robbed a few times, you will understand why people move TO Atlanta. You spoiled child.
You've lived there your whole life so are you not accustomed to the heat or has it become hotter in Atlanta?
@mythbuster like kind of, but I've spent the past two summers in the PNW working summer seasonal jobs. It for sure is getting hotter though.
I hope you consider Seattle!
@@GrimBTemplar I will, I love Seattle
As an only child, if my parents weren't here, we'd be gone. We will certainly be leaving the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) as soon as we can. Part of my family has been here for hundreds of years. I never thought I'd really leave. 🤷♀️ The length of our summers here, even without this summer specifically ... its becoming untenable to live here anymore.
Sitting here in Chicago next to the largest supply of fresh water in the world doing just fine and confidence is high. That being said would someone PLEASE sleigh the oligarchs who caused this mess!
What is far worse, there is no trace of accepting preventing making things worse.
HOW MANY PEOPLE DO A DEEP DIVE INTO THE LAY OF THE LAND, PRIOR TO CHOOSING WHERE TO LIVE? WOULD THEY EVEN KNOW WHERE TO START AND END THEIR SEARCH?
Yet with every move, every severe climate event, millions of tons of existing housing and their contents, hundreds of thousands of vehicles, are destroyed then rebuilt. Adding $hundreds of billions to GDP while also adding millions of tons of greenhouse gases pollution further exacerbating the climate crisis. In addition here in north millions of scattered houses sit empty and decay. Top 10% own 2,3,4,5 houses, condos, yachts which sit empty 90% of the time while drawing electricity, water, and gas.
We are so screwed things are going to get tucking crazy within the next ten years or so
Unscientific comment.
Cut off all insurance at a set future date, offer to pay the value of the home before the cutoff date, state there will be no bailouts after the date, let the chips fall where they fall.
Why buy people out? Climate change has been going on for 50 years, it was predicted 50 years ago. No more bailouts!
Given a choice between having to sell my private home/property and a full blown civil war I would raise the Stars and Bars as well as the Bonnie Blue Flag and fight total war against a Union tyranny to the death . No surrender either side. I would take no prisoners.
Have only private insurance, no government subsidies
@@m9078jk3 Nowhere did I say "forced to sell". I said you'd get the opportunity to be bought out.
Refusal would just mean you will lose 100% of your property's value if it gets destroyed during a natural disaster.
Saying "No" is absolutely an option, as long as you don't think you'd be getting handouts when the inevitable happens
If insurers want to insure, let them insure.
I’m in Michigan on Lake Huron…come👍🏼☀️🌎💙….close to perfect. Michigan is sooooooo much bigger than Detroit. It’s the younger generations time to build a new
I love the Thurdsay podcasts!
👋 Hi from Canada. 🇨🇦 RUclips suggested this to me today, while Yellowknife is being evacuated. 😮
Possibly all of Western Canada got a 48hr notice, this natsy hot weather gonna shift, colder air coming in. … but no rain, just winds & dry lightning. 🥺😱 Worst “Fire Starts” conditions all year, gonna happen this weekend. 😢
meanwhile, many West-Coast Canada municipal water supplies are at Stage 4 restrictions, some are at Stage 5. everything is dry, so … 😮 we do *NOT* want lightning. but 😱 please protect water supplies! Firefighters are kinda screwed if their water supply runs dry!
I think you are grossly underestimating, the speed which climate breakdown is happening. The changes are happening exponentially. We really are out of time for what you describe. ie ‘moving from Miami to say Atlanta’. Atlanta may not have the problem of flooding/rising seas- but the heat will get more intense in Atlanta. We are out of time for incremental changes.
Exactly. TIme to stop worrying about it and just move on with life. Do what makes sense in your own life.
I am originally fro New York state, have lived in Arizona and Florida, and now
glad to live in New Hampshire 😊
It's been an absolutely beautiful mild summer in New York state.
Michigan also.
Same in Central NJ !
Watch out everyone will move to New York 😊
Thank you for uploading and sharing.
What about mold and pathogens that get released when the permafrost melts?
Yup. Wait'll all the Spanish Flu victims from 1919 buried there thaw out. The most lethal virus in history, it killed 50 million people estimated. There was a LOT less humans on the planet back then.
You forgot to list Methane!
Good discussion, people need to change, mother nature won't for sure.
The ice deserves to be free to travel through the hydrologic cycle once more.
I have seen a few articles suggesting we pump water from the Mississippi River to the Southwest. As if the Rocky Mountains were not an issue.
Water levels in the Mississippi are already declining into dangerous levels. It's used as a main supply route, and that is currently threatened.
The thing is, we don’t want those southerners with their conservative values, climate denying, no taxes, gun owning fanatics moving here to the upper Midwest. We have no reason to incentivize them to come. With our opposite values, Minnesota is already a business Mecca because families and so this business want to be here. Those government need to change what they support and start taxing more as we do so they can support their own citizens in learning to deal with the climate change they love to deny. We are so very tired of bailing out the South federally with our tax dollars and in no way do we want to help them build sea walls, etc. when they have prevented for 50 years stopping our march to 1.5 degrees plus warming.
Madison, WI has attracted or grown in place several new major employers and is growing faster than we can build housing. So there's definitely some shifting to the upper midwesy. As an Uber driver I hear quite a bit about it. Weirdly it seems there's a bit of a two way pipeline between Madison and Denver, anecdotally.
But then Milwaukee's population has been stagnant in the city and inner suburbs for nearly a half century. But that is still partly a slow departure of industry while new tech moves in. So it's kind of give and take.
Cook county lost 100k people in the past 10 years.
@@covfefe1787
Cook County in Chicago?
Very interesting and under-discussed topic.
Yeah, fivethirtyeight is usually so busy discussing abortion and Jan. 6 that they have trouble fitting this in. Glad they got around to it. Hope the next one is about police brutality.
Maybe we can alleviate some of the pain of displacement by government 'turning on the money hose.' Slight problem, $32 trillion debt means we're already out of money. Actually, we ran out of money 32 trillion dollars ago. Uh-oh.
Good Point.
This would be a good time for Jesus to Come Back!
(Mathew 24: 6-7 & 22, Luke 21:25)
My money's on the upper Great lakes within 50 years. Water and some more bearable Summer temps. But the post growth era is coming soon.😊 Duluth MN is already familiar with that.
Cheers!
We need greater efforts by the powers that be to slow down the negative climatic changes.More action and less talk is imperative in these times.
I'm sorry, but I just can't keep from laughing. I feel so bad for Mr. Bittle having to talk about millions of people screwing up the climate and spending their last dime to destroy their land before running for higher ground. The insanity is so absurd I'm just left to crack up at the irony.
We know plants are migrating north so when ppl move to new regions they need to bring their seed crops with them. Literally everything from vegetables to herbs, cash crops, berries, nuts, fruit everything. Just cuz something no longer grows in Mexico doesnt mean it wont thrive in a warmer S.Dakota for example. The more ppl doing this and the more genetics circulating around the easier itll be to reestablish. The wise will adapt, be strong we got this!
Very enjoyable to watch. Very informative. It was nice to hear perspectives on what’s possible without being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic.
It is too bad "We don't get to live in these places we wanted to anymore" comes too far after it is too late to stop climate catastrophe for it to generate useful political will to prevent bad consequences.
We pooped in the water and now we have to drink it. Cities let developers build housing tracts in flood plains because the mayor wanted the tax money. We have paved over streams and rivers to give developers more land to develop, because the city needed the tax money. "That's not our problem, that is our children's problem to figure out.". We knew better but we were blinded by the money we could make. The sustainable carrying capacity of an area is seldom considered. Whole Nations will be under water in the lifetime of our children. In the world 80% of the population lives within the zone that will be underwater in 100 years. 100 years is the blink of an eye. By 2123 the map of the world land mass will look very different than today. Homes will look very different than today to deal with the wind, rain, heat and humidity. Will there be satellite communication, or will they all will have fallen out of the sky from lack of upkeep? How smart will your cell phone be without satellites or cell towers? what is the human sustainable capacity of this new reality? Lots of things to think about. Don't blame the tree huggers they have been predicting the dangers since the 1890's.
Who else is here to try to figure out how to profit from these changes?
Yay capitalism!
Sober discussion on a very dour but necessary subject. More gaming out of what this will look like needs to be done. I live in an eastern coastal community with an overwhelmed infrastructure despite continued and poorly mitigated efforts to control development. It seems to me that the Departments of Homeland Security, Interior, Transportation, and Energy need to focus more attention on this issue before it is too late. It is too big for states to tackle and the most vulnerable states are embroiled in pettiness (Fl, AZ, CA, TX.)
A barrier island is a constantly changing deposit of sand that forms parallel to the coast. However, they have become prime real estate during nice weather. Beach front property on a barrier island carries high risk.
Soon no Insurance will be available for any price... that will end that.
When the "Land" changes, the three coast lines for instance, then people will learn. ALways must be the hard way.. Then they will be refugees in their own land.
I can see this happening faster than he thinks.
There are some exciting building materials that are non-flammable and highly sustainable. For one--hempcrete, is carbon-negative. It is non-flammable, non-toxic, thermal and sound-insulating, hypoallergenic, mold and pest-resistant. The one thing is it needs structural support, which can be wood, concrete, or concrete-reinforced with steel. Another material that is becoming more popular in India is cold-pressed bricks. They made of local sand/mud and lime in a hand-press. These bricks are fire-proof, load-bearing, and have good thermal mass. In Europe, a popular building material is aircrete. It is concrete filled with tiny air bubbles, usually from adding aluminum hydroxide. Aircrete can be custom-made in slabs that fit into place, and an entire home can be framed over a weekend. Aircrete is fire-proof, load-bearing up to three stories, and has good insulation against temperature fluctuations and sound. Aircrete uses only a third of the concrete of un-aerated concrete, so in that sense it is more sustainable and also costs less. As far as roofs go, there are clay tiles, metal, and even green--as in grass. As long as the green roof is kept wet, it is unlikely to burn. The technology is there. We can build better.
Shout out Duluth, MN!
Insurance payouts will have to include an understanding that if you choose to rebuild in the same location your future construction will not be insured. This will encourage people to take their disaster insurance payment and resettle elsewhere.
With 425ppm CO2++ we either develop technology to remove VAST amounts of CO@ and methane from the atmosphere or things are going to get orders of magnitude worse much faster than you are anticipating. 2-3-million years ago when Earth had a similar atmosphere sea level was 6=20 meters higher and the average temperature was 3-5 degree Celsius higher. And it took a whole lot longer to reach those CO2 levels. The poles are melting at accelerating rates as are the world's glaciers. The methane nightmares occurring in Siberia and the lower Artic worldwide are scarcely being mentioned in the world's press. You had best add an order of magnitude to your calculations. If we don't soon come up with a worldwide Marshall plan to deal with climate change we will loose 80% of the world's population by mid 2500's.
If you want to exercise that precious freedom to live where you want then you are responsible for your choice.... My precious freedom is freedom NOT to have to pay for your choice.
Not enough people read Cadillac Desert
More airconditioners sounds like the "head in the sand" ostrich solution.
The GOP and alt-right would have us think the immigrant crisis is at the border, and that remains true to an extent. However, the massive influx of people on the move will be internal, as they run away from landscapes and economic zones that are vulnerable to climate disruptions. As a rule, the US south and south-east will largely empty, as might southern California. The reasons for these disruptions are many and complex, but they are very real, and as a practical matter are already unavoidable.
Karra And Donna Douglas are very insistent on building an eco friendly home partially underground to escape the heat. below the frost-line its a consistent 55 degree's.
If the southwest is going to become uninhabitable, why don't the government open the great basin to the sea. It seems it's going to happen anyway if sea level keeps rising.
A web app that maps good locations to live based on politics, environment, resources, local culture, industry, climate change, energy costs, taxation, etc
based on someone's concerns would be great..
Great book. Great interview.
There a planned developent further inland from fort meyers where the hurricane hit. They didn't suffer any damage. It was in the news. They used renewable energy and smart design and they were further inland.
Global warming is the biggest issue this century that not only we face as Americans and as a nations, but as a Species as a whole. Global warming needs to be a top campaign issue heading into the 2024 election.
And yet, it won't be. I saw a documentary once with a German scientist who said something to the effect that climate change is like shooting a gun where it takes decades to pull the trigger, decades for the bullet to fly through the air, and decades for it to hit the target and cause an impact wound. It's something that the American political system is not equipped to even see, let alone seriously handle it.
That’s what we’ve been hearing for 40 years
Even the climate alarmist in the video said that at this rate by 2100, we will see places like Phoenix stop growing. In 80 years phoenix’s will plateau! That’s not that scary.
@@joetz1 climate models have been born out accurately. No actual scientist or study have said Manhattan would be underwater by 2000 or no snow by 2012. Climate activists may have said that but not climate scientists.
@@markaisenberg6641 what does that have to do with anything?
What if nature says "you can not live here" or "come live here and die"?
May I suggest Americans to build up big dams around the main costal cities of eastern and western coast?
And forget New Orleans. That city is just doomed.
NO gov't $ to bail-out homeowners. You place your bets & you win or lose. YOU LOSE>
Does this man ever make eye contact?
We can run but we can't hide. No matter where we go or don't go, we will all be affected.
We ARE ALL being affected.
So refreshing to to have an objective discussion on such a volatile subject!
191 k comments and growing!
Who can say what areas in the nation will be safe for your forever home? No one.
How many people are needed to keep the human species going? 10,000? 100,00? 10,000,000?
Certainly not 8 billion.. 😮
Would love to hear this thoughts about the same topic for the various regions of Canada
Im curious if theres ever been a program for relocating rentors?
I’m curious if this conversation may be putting too much bias on the current respect for international borders. Our current systems, and mechanisms, for managing economies of scale are being eroded as they were designed on foundations that cannot be sustained. I see no reason to expect the current distribution of power to stay in place, or have the capacity to maintain systems as they exist today.
Institutions like FEMA, home owner insurance risk pools, mortgage markets, programs dependent on property taxes, interstate agreements on water or power distribution, and even interstate commerce at large are all in the crosshairs of climate change. The legal battles over the Colorado river are the canary in the coal mine. The upper plains water right holders have not used their share of the water for decades, but now are enforcing their “entitlements” to that water despite millions downstream who depend on it, including another nation in the form of Mexico. The impacts of this dispute have the potential to be destabilizing. Especially when agricultural production, federal tax revenues from California, military bases, and the support for infrastructure to sustain those things are at risk. I’m not sure the macroeconomic impacts are on the common people’s radar when examining these issues.
The domestic migration patterns resulting from these changes is the least of the concerns, and this conversation in the video seems tame compared to the potential that is likely.
@rusty:
Relax!
I keep hearing my BFF, Sean Hannity, on Fox News, tell us:
"Global Warming is a Hoax, since Mike Bloomberg flew on a jet today."!
And he gets paid $36 million a year to do that!
I live in Phoenix, and after this summer being stuck inside for months and the yard is completely dead from the heat, I thought about moving, but there are no natural disasters here, and I don’t want to move to a place with fires or hurricanes, etc. 🙁
I know that historically, heat has been Arizona’s thing. But isn’t what is happening now (brutal, historic heat and a vanishing water supply) a natural disaster?
If I lived In Arizona and had the ability, I would seriously consider moving to the Great Lakes states or Upper Midwest. If things continue as they are, the Rust Belt may become the place to be.
@@Earth1218 Water supply is always going to be an issue here since the population continues to grow (and the state leases farmland to Saudi businesses, letting them have unlimited access to the groundwater), but it’s managed better than some other places in the region that experience drought.
We have the infrastructure to deal with the heat, but it’s only going to get worse, not better. Right now it’s annoying to people who have air conditioned houses and workplaces, but it’s deadly to unhoused people.
At the moment it’s not bad enough for me to make a big change, and I don’t love the idea of snow.
@@Xosidhe :
Saudi businesses, from the nation that exported the most oil for people to burn and cause Climate Change!
Ironic, Isn't it?
I own a house on top of a hill. There has been a hard sell to get me to buy flood insurance.