AMZN To Effectively Manage Dilution ???
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- Опубликовано: 27 май 2024
- AMZN stock did great the last year! However, the business didn't change much since and they say now they will effectively manage dilution. At a 1.5% dilution rate and a $2 trillion market capitalization, that is $30 billion, thus almost all of AMZN's profits.
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0:00 AMZN Stock
0:54 AMZN Business
2:53 Dilution
4:17 AMZN A Buy?
Love the summary of the types of buy you have been doing at the end of each video lately!
Glad you like them!
I sold it for 160; Thank you, Sven. Unfortunately, I am investing peanuts at the moment and I cannot afford your payment service but since I following you I have made more than 60% profit on your advice on Nutrient, Amazon and Rubis. Thank you to exist mate.
Should have held
Great to hear!
@@trentslayton6300 Yeah amazon is a Buy and Hold its a clear growth monster and profit machine this comming decade .
Good advice.thanks Sven.
I think you are good in finding stocks Sven. But you have itchy fingers and are ready to sell whenever the stock price goes up like long-term traders. I found one great stock because of you AAPL and I still own it! Remember when you wrote that article many years ago but then you sold a year later? AMZN I bought in 70s. Still own it. I rarely sell my core positions since these are great businesses. They may look overvalued now but the fundamentals will eventually catch up. I think that's the reason you've never enjoyed a true 10x or 100x because you sell after 50% to 100% gain.
I agree 100% with you. Sven plays too much with valuation and buy-sell. I prefer the long-term owner approach, where you just own the business, and let it ride. This is the way big wealth is generated. I still regret selling Facebook around 2012 and not letting it compound…
The fact is that Sven doesn't really like Amazon as a business, and the proof of that is that even when it fell by more than 50% at the end of 2022, he didn't buy it for his private portfolio, but just played around in the demo RUclips Portfolio. In one of his previous RUclips posts, he mentioned that he commented on Amazon with his friends back in 2014 when he was working at Bloomberg and that he was a contrarian and still is. As he once quoted Munger regarding retail companies - sell a horse when he has a good day. :-) Only time will tell if he was right or not. I personally successfully built a position at the last bottom 15 months ago and remain invested for the long term.
AMZN was my biggest position, but I sold a good chunk of it even if it doesn't look as expensive a some other stocks, I thought it wasnt' a good idea to hold so much at this moment, so after trimming I hope it goes down to $100 again so I can buy more! Thank you.
Love you channel. Watch it daily
Glad you enjoy it!
Great content and clear input as always, Sven the best! 👍
Glad you think so!
Good analisis... Thanks Sven
Thanks!
thanks Sven.
My pleasure!
Sven, ive been a member since 2018. Id love to see an analysis of 3M's latest spin off and the new company Solventum. Thanks for the great content
Thanks for suggesting!! Will check!
Great content as always Sven. 👌
Appreciate it!
you made a video on london stocks. one of them, the boot company, seems to have a different risk/reward profile than in your initial analysis. only commenting because i know you read these. thank you for the good content
AMZN is historically still on the lower side of its P/OCF at 22. Operating cash flow has compounded at a CAGR of 32% during the last 10 years, probably the stock may correct but I dont think it's a sell.
Thanks for sharing!
I have to agree. Sven mentions the P/E ratio of AMZN quite a bit, but this is not an appropriate metric to value this business, due to the fact that Amazon has investments in other businesses. OCF is a much better metric, since it doesn't fluctuate with Amazon's stock portfolio. When it comes to valuation, using the P/E ratio indiscriminately like this is likely only to confuse most people.
I bought Amazon at 90$ (thank you for that). Although I agree with your analysis here, I don’t feel comfortable exiting/reducing/adding a position with such a good entry point.
I might just do nothing and let the compound interest do it’s magic over time.
I know its been discussed they have greatly reduced stock compensation for all employees. I saw some high level amazonians discussing their RSU stock comp has dropped nearly 80% from a few years ago, so future dilution may show better. Idk, we'll see. Ill stay invested, company is growing and growing.
As you said in one of your previous Amazon analyses, you were a contrarian when you worked at Bloomberg in 2014 and still are. I know it's hard to chew that Price/Earnings ratio. I luckily hit the Amazon bottom 15 months ago and built a nice position. I hope there is still juice to squeeze from the Amazon oranges 🙂
great to hear!
Pls do a video on siriusXM and Liberty, keen to hear ur opinion on it
i’m not buying at todays valuation but i wish i had at 90. barring a huge opportunity cost, i dont think there’d be any reason to sell
🗽 I bought some AMZN in Nov. 23 for a momentum trade -- the stock was not expensive.... I was luucky, now it's up 33%. 👍
.
Would you be able to evaluate RIO Tinto stock for valuation? Thank you!
Any updates on Rubis? The stock has recently experienced a significant increase.
Sven - good advice if you are a Ben Graham value investor but definitely against Charlie Munger's advice. you are talking about selling a quality company. Good luck trying to find similar returns elsewhere. The cigar butt approach might make you a winner but at least your broker and the taxman will thank you for trading in and out.
Great video. Please do a similar video about Alphabet.
Bought Amazon at 86. but Sold some 25 per Cent Last week
appreciate the content!
i have to ask, amazon FCF was over $30B last quarter. you don't think the yearly will be over $100B in the near future?
Last 12 months, not quarter
Hi Sven ,please can u update Rubis?
If you haven't bought, you missed a nice ~40%, I bought it end of January, not sure if increasing the position now...
Update: The stock is up :-)
will do
@@danielegianetti5599 They are guiding towards 750m EBITDA in FY24, a decline with respect to a great FY23, but still a 7-10% compounded growth rate on any 5-year rolling basis. A 6% dividend and let's say 5-7% growth going forward is still an 11-13% business return, from a business that still trades at 10x earnings (when up to 2019, it traded at 17x customarily, prior to surging and then collapsing). It was much better when the dividend was north of 9%, but it remains an interesting risk/reward proposition today: it all depends on what else you are watching.
Still worth increasing the position? With oil prices rising, the billionaire investor news, the sentiment is kind of a bit too positive ...maybe some crap PCI data next week could cause and overall pull back day and opportunity for a better price.
The market cap is close to two trillion, not two billion….
haha, billions, trillions... one gets lost these days!
3:30 2 trillion*
:-)))
Great video, can you make a video on Google?
Excellent analysis! The worst thing management could do would Be to buy back stock at inflated prices, that would be destroying shareholder value. Looks like I might trim my position, as much as I love the company.
:-)
I like the business. I don't like the price at this level.
Ferrari (RACE) has done well for me over the past 12 months. Is it still worth a buy at the current price.
:-) Thanks for suggesting!
I am scared to close or reduce position in a great company. I am scared I am gonna buy some garbage stock with the profits of Amazon.
that is a very good point, hard to know because nobody can know where the stock will go
Also mind the capital gain taxes
2nd !
Because I have insomnia.
:-)))
Solar video coming soon?
Doing the research as I write this, we'll see when it gets done.
@@Value-Investing nice!
Not a buy at this price levels
Amazon's FCF will be over 90B eoy 2026. I suspect it'll eclipse msft in marketcap over the next few years. See you boys in Sven's next amzn video!
I think Amzn fcf will be 90 billion at the end of 2025 at least. I predict 150 billion in fcf at the end of 2028
one of the better videos I have seen today