Intel Stock Is Back To Value, Again...
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- Опубликовано: 6 июн 2024
- Intel stock jumped on the AI boom but reality hit and now we are back close to value. But, the reality is just the semis cycle and the company is investing big into the future, as the cycle rebounds, it could be an interesting play.
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Good analysis Sven. I wasnt smart enough to get out at USD 50. Furthermore the dividend is a lot lower. Overall a very poor investment. I agree that 25 is a good number :-)
Did you read all annual reports and letters to shareholders from warren buffet and berkshire?
The most educational rants ever. :)
:-))
I will only start building a position on INTC again if it's REALLY cheap and "keeps" or keeps proving the good prospects of the company. We'll see. Thanks!
The new Intel CPUs are great (almost as good as Apple with x86 architecture and not using the latest and greatest chips) , Battlemage looks great on leaked benchmarks, they will soar if anything happens with Taiwan, even temporarily.
Thanks for sharing
Super oversold.
thanks for sharing
Small correction: Intel did spin off a small portion of Mobileye as an IPO (ticker: MBLY)
thanks for adding!
undervalued now, a buy?
recently government said they will provide billions stimulus to intel but require them to stop selling to huawei.
what do you think?
I love sven's rants. Keep it up.
my hope is that, similarly to AMD and practically all the tech stocks, one day funds will "realize" that the biggest semiconductor company, every year minus one SSD stellar year for Samsung and probably this year with NVIDIA and AI craze, cannot be valued 3x its yearly revenue and skyrocket the company to 10x like all rest... Will it happen before 2030? Don't think so...
Pat Gelsinger talks like nvidia, walls like IBM.
good one!
Every time a company has shit growth they will put up a graph that says something like this: low single digits for next 2-3 years, then the growth will go up. Then they hope everyone has amnesia by the time that rolls around. I love how you pull up 2020-2022 presentations of many of these companies and expose their CEOs' lies. Buffet says he never reads presentation decks about companies because that's like listening to a used car salesman's pitch. Of course they will say everything is gonna go great. These days earnings calls and guidances are all about how far optimistic they can go without getting a lawsuit. Intel fell asleep at the wheel and now they are playing catch-up in an industry with long R&D times and huge capex while rates are high. No way I am paying p/e 30 for that.
what happened to the dividends
they cut those to grow :-))))
Would be interested to hear your take on QCOM given they're going into the laptop market with an ARM based CPU and of course they're going heavy into automotive. I am tempted to start opening a position into them but waiting for the price to fall and also to see how the Snapdragon X elite chip performs and whether Microsoft finally starts supporting Windows on ARM properly, hopefully given what Apple has done with the M series of chips it will have lit a fire under MSOFT's ass.
Long term client computing is moving away from Intel's x86 to arm chips, Apple led the way and windows will follow. It's inevitable.
Thanks for suggesting
Hellyes! Let's get INTEL to 25$ and sven makes another vid about INTEL.👏
:-))))
Wow, now i can consider just buying it back again, this company is a real roller coaster
:-))))
Mobile-eye was spun-off in October 2022. Intel still owns like 88% of the company. Smart move, IMO.
thanks for adding!
I laugh how Cisco and Intel were so hot in year 2000, dont worry, Tesla and Nvidia will be hot trash in 20 years too
:-)))
Tesla has hype but makes sporadic runs up and then back down. It skyrockteted in 2023 before dipping and now, over a sudden, it moves up are breaking daily records. In general it's nividia and meta who been the most relentless
Same Margin of Safety conclusion, from the P/S angle.
:-)
I am in for a longer run. Like those hops you suggested. Now it is kinda unstable bc they are building several sites. Chip is flagged as strategic component for USA. If China attacks Taiwan TSMC goes down.
that is also a way of looking at it!
Tuned in for the Sven Intel fraud rant
Intel a questi prezzi grande affare, come sempre te lo farò presente più avanti
sicurament :-)
What about you portfolio Sven?
no intel there
@@Value-Investing”You choose wisely.”
Intel for life!
Intel grande affare a questi prezzi
grazie!
I bought 306 call on 35 break even and right now I loss 49% and it’s expired 24 of may what should I do can you help me plzzz 😢😢😢😢😢😢
Do not buy Call again.
@@radiologyfinance1478 should I exit
Going $100. Patience is the key.
thanks for sharing
Too cheap to ignore. Buy for a strong recovery.
thanks for sharing!
Good video! Tough call in $INTC with debt and other companies doing well.
It’s good debt though
:-)
Quite the same analysis I did…. Still remember the spring 2022 ceo presentation……. One big disappointment…..
:-)
Intel, the strategy is simple, buy when you see insider buying
CEO just bought 4,100 shares
you will buy too late then :P
Great! If the insiders are buying is because they have more hot information saying their stock will go high soon ;-)
Just like with wirecard... Were you guys born yesterday?
thanks for sharing
INTC sucks. They haven’t innovated in decades
there have been ups and downs:-)
Only question is: can intel compete with tsm at foundry. If yes it is a 60-80 usd Stock otherwise 25-30 usd
Long term they will being backed by the government
no it can't. US is already heavily invested in TSMC for that reason
@@evilhorde8151 I think that’s for another reason knowing Taiwan will fall at one point and why not build factories instead in the USA than in Taiwan.
:-)
@@ibrahimciftci9599 taiwan will fall at one point? How do you know the future? You dont
yes, at 25 i'd be a buyer, for a swing trade!
although I don't like management - he lies investors (remember when he said they won't cut dividends and after a month they did) and especially I don't like the fact they burn money with not so much results...!
Sven, please make a video about chinese casino stocks before it's too late😃
🤣
@@tsonez I wasn't being ironic 😼 some stocks didn't recovered since covid shutdown and revenues are growing. It might be a good bet
For me it should go down to 20 PE before it becomes interesting. Right now it's got things speaking for it, such as fab capacity, but the management seems to be completely lost and still has issues shaking that they're no longer the kings on the hill. This attitude of "we're so great we don't need to innovate" is the biggest hidden danger inside of Intel.
they tried that a while ago
How did Warren Buffett beat the market? He didn't invest in INTC.
I got into INTC in 2019 and got out last December, when the AI hype popped the stock to $50. I consider myself lucky to have gotten out without losing money.
Watch some of the tech channels on RUclips to see how bad INTC is doing. They're going to lose share for the foreseeable future. Pat is FAIL.
thanks for sharing
I am thinking of buying at 31, good idea?
the risk and reward is discussed in the video!
It's funny how you blame Pat for the underinvestment of the previous CEO, which, if I remember correctly, you praised. You should have mentioned that there were no investments in R&D for so many years before Pat, and all the money was siphoned to investors through dividends and buybacks.
I don't blame Pat for switching to growth, I blame him for saying 10% growth and than delivering a decline of 50% in revenues. He knew that was coming.
Sven I completely agree with you on Intel, its a kinda shady company in different “behaviors” from accounting shenanigans, stellar growth stories and fundamentally marketing their products as very premium. I always said to people not very expert in semis (as most wall street people) that this industry is incredibly difficult and Intel during the late 10s got their “status” while really doing nothing to improve and other companies were struggling. 20s and 30s are going to be a totally different story, Intel is behind light years in a lot of products its “premium status” is gone and looking uglier. As you said it can just be a commodity cicle trade.
thanks!
Both Intel and AMD have benefitted from the AI hype cycle, but talk to any AI engineer and they'll tell you that Nvidia chips are the only ones they can use in their rigs. Intel's newer chips don't have material performance increases compared to old ones and they are using marketing to make up the difference. They're rapidly losing ground to AMD in the Laptop CPU space.
If you actually follow the technology alot of these ai engines are likely to consume fewer gpu in the future as we improve and make the systems more efficient.
The amount of infrastructure they’re building will quickly push them back up as the #1 player in the industry when it is put into affect
thanks for sharing guys!
If you work in semiconductor, you understand why Intel can not catch up with TSMC. There is news that they bought the latest High NA machines from ASML, however, it will take them years to build up the process to make a finer chip. So do not see Intel getting any better for next one year.
I agree with that!
Love it when you said “you think I am an idiot, Pat”
:-))
If Pat laid off all the sales people, I will put like 20% of my money on intel. He needs to change the culture to focus on software and hardware engineers... don't see that happening
🗽 INTC is very disappointing... my summary 🤨
.
:-)
"Unfortunately", I have become a team red user, AMD.
After so many hours spend over the last years trying to buy a good computer, for me Intel is actually often a drawback (I usually buy Ryzen instead of i-series). Just yesterday I bought a Ryzen 9 because AMD allows with almost all their Ryzen to have ECC RAM memory, while with Intel you need to go to their Xeon series, etc.
I remember back in the days when it was Intel, and the rest was garbage that they put on a "gaming laptop" to reduce the cost.
Now a days it almostt feels the opposite, and thus why I cannot invest in Intel, despite the numbers.
There are plenty of consumers that do not care at all and will buy whatever, and some that are still stuck with the mantra of "Intel Inside", and many manufacturers still force you to have Intel if you want certain specs, so Intel will probably see business.
I might be wrong, but my guts just do not allow me to bet against my instincts.
Please do a video on china stocks 🥹
Not maybe neeeded. Consider the risk-adjusted return on average. Propability for China's action in Taiwan is high enough there's low rational reason to invest in any Chinese business. I think, even if PRC policy makes a 180-degree turn, on average the Chinese business valuations are currently too high for an adequate return for the risk taken... A video on Apple could be more sensible now when Wall Street is starting to disfavour it. Also, European luxury could be something.
Stocks up since 1933. Gold up since 1933. Housing up since 1933. Will debasement continue forever? Very possible. Protect yourself.
I am not a technical analyst, but I think I prefer to wait until that downward momentum has calmed down for the Intel stock price.
they you are waiting for a margin of safety and book value
@@Value-Investing true, but sometimes a stock can look cheap for a long time while the momentum is downward. So I try to understand a little bit of both the technical and the fundamental. To me it seems (also thanks to your content) that both technical and fundamental say it's best to wait for better opportunities when it comes to Intel :)
The problem for intel is their power consumption of their architectures, this is why they are nowhere to be seen in mobile. Investing in intel is to invest in the PC. If they shape up one could make a lot of money, personally I put this one in the “too hard pile”.
This time is related to Snapdragon Elite X Soc coming soon, intel will lose all laptop market
thanks for sharing
intel's p/e is still 31.4 that does not represent good value especially for a company trhat lies
and manipulates so much.
keep in mind the cycle, if it is there, the PE will be 6 in two years, but, if it is there
Day #2 asking Sven ti analyse CVS health :)
not really my kind of business :-( I don't know enough about US healthcare regulation
@@Value-Investing thank you for your kind answer 👍🏽
X86 procesors (Intel, AMD) are stuck in a mud against ARM processors from competitors like (Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Samsung)...they will probably have a bad ending if they don't adapt. Billions will disapire if they stay on the same path. X86 chips are not in phones, tablets, smartwatches and they even have no future in laptops anymore.
The next IBM
thanks for sharing
Valued way too high for a cigar butt
thanks for sharing
As the ceo sum up everything on recent interview - " intel was chip design company with foundry business and now is foundry company with chip design business".
BIG CHANGE!!
For me its a no go even at 25, even at 20, there are 50,000 business out there why stay stuck on the same names over and over, the market will give the foundry business 20 pe at best! At best, so margin of safety for me here is 2 eps * 8 pe is 16 P/S
It's not IF here would be delays, its WHEN there will be delays. They have lost a lot of credibility over the years before 2021. I hoped with Mr. Gelsinger it would change, but I already changed my tune on that about that about 1 year ago (not that he is as bad as the previous 2 CEO's).
there will certainly be delays, that is for sure :-)))
@3:02 "Judgment"
:')
TSM is a better foundry than Intel. AMD makes better processors than Intel. GPU: Nvidia is no match for Intel. Although I bought a bit of Intel now, I don't believe in the company but can be a good swing trade imho.
thanks for sharing
Long-term I have no faith in their management or culture so it is a hard pass on this business.
thanks for sharing
@@Value-Investing thank you as always for sharing your thoughts. I do love your longer videos.
intel clearly has issues but Sven has been dissing them and management for years now, he obviously has bias
Or he has logic. 😂
Would love to see this at 25
St Micro much better semicon business
Made money here, made money there, Sven made money everywhere.
Seems like Intel is on a road to nowhere. I held for so long and got tired after years of absolutely no results.
If you gave up on it why are you watching videos on it? It’s like watching an ex on social media, time to move on buddy. Someone else will love and hold it for decades to come
@@RoTelnCheese I tend to watch most of Sven's videos and I wanted to hear what he has to say. My comment was a warning to others.
@@RoTelnCheese Love is a very optimistic word.
Intel is a 2027 Q3 play at the earliest. Do you even understand what investing is?
@@franekwrobel1449 Mr Wrobel, I bought my first shares of Intel over 10 years ago. Sold most of it over the years for very uninspiring profits. I'm no expert but I did buy my first stock in 1989, so I have been around for a whole. As for Intel, I would not bet the farm on it. Bottom line means a lot.
intel Amish Galsinger is well loved and trusted by christian nationalists, but the problem seems to be a lack of christian nationalist in the investor community.
I trust you Sven, but i don't trust Pat. I cannot see value in this one at the moment, smells like a value trap! But i appreciate your work as always!
that is why the margin of safety could be at 80% of book