@@miguelsilveira6803 that part seems believable though, Aztlán could become a country in the future if the US keeps ending up with conservative Presidents as the Southwest gets more left-wing.
@@PewPew1234567 who says that? game critics? CIV V is the best game of the series in my opinion, even tho my heart will always be with CIVIII but every time i go back to that game i cry with the stupid game mechanics, things evolve but CIV VI just makes me mad for the overwhelming critic made by fans and buyers of the game that the game looks like it was designed for tablet or smarthphone use.
@@KateeAngel He's born in 1949. So his values reflect the era he grew up in. While people think of the 60s as the hippie era for persons who went on to work for the government or become associated with it the exact opposite was the case. A highly conservative view prevailed. Which would be seen in the 80s with guys like Tom Clancy.
I actually discovered Friedman through a "future history" timeline that used most of his predictions (The Second Renaissance by YNot1989 if you are interested). It's quite an interesting and well-written timeline, but it ends up feeling like American wish-fulfilment, with an Americas-wide US establishing what are little more than protectorates over the über-balkanized Old World while it undergoes the colonization of the Solar System in the first half of the 22nd Century.
Considering how he's born in 1949 it makes sense for him to imagine that despite how absurd it is. He grew up in the shadow of that event so his references are gonna include it.
lol sounds like he is indeed a boomer thats salty that they will soon be gone and apparently the US economy will supposedly suffer from their loss hahaha
Well, the author said that he knows that he won't get everything right and if only a small portion of what he has written comes true, he would be happy. But I don't think that he got too many things wrong up to now, the most obvious error is the prediction of China fragmenting around 2020, and the Chinese economy stagnating after 2008 economic crisis, well, China's economic growth did slow down from 14% in 2007 to around 6% by the mid-2010s, but of course, it isn't stagnation, however, if you would look at the Chinese economy right now, it may be where they are heading towards in 2020s (so maybe he's got the timing wrong? maybe not.) He also said that Russia will try to reassert itself in the post-Soviet Union - recent events in Ukraine, Karabakh, Belarus (yeah he didn't specifically predict the war in Karabakh but he said that there will be a crisis in the Caucasus after which the Russians will reassert themselves in the region and it would lead to a security crisis in Turkey. So the Russians are now back in Azerbaijan and Armenia and Turkey by actively supporting Azerbaijan and sending its troops basically by all means possible tried to prevent Russians from returning to the region. So isn't this prediction right? He also said that the Arab world would destabilize in the 2nd half of the 2010s, (well it destabilized a bit faster since 2011) and that Russia would use this destabilization to turn the US and Turkish focus on the Middle East rather than Ukraine and the Caucasus, well, isn't that what kind of happens right now? The Russians are supporting YPG in Syria to force Turkey to focus its resources on Syria instead of the Caucasus? In addition, he predicted that Turkey would have to fight in Syria and Iraq to suppress the Kurdish uprisings there, isn't that true as well? He said that Russia will collapse not long after 2020 as a result of the Cold War 2.0 with the U.S. just as the USSR collapsed after the 1st one, well we don't know yet whether is he right or wrong yet, but Russia experiences severe economic problems since 2014 - Because of the low oil prices, high military spending and sanctions. So, can he be right? Maybe Russia won't collapse in 2023 but what about 2025? Wouldn't that be technically correct? And yeah he also predicted that the EU will struggle to maintain unity - BREXIT, Poland & Hungary not accepting the EU decisions about the refugees. Polish alliance - Poland did form the "3 seas initiative" in 2015.
Yeah I do believe that Turkey could lead the middle east but not forgetting that the greeks(which yes a have bad economy but put a lot of effort into military) and basically the whole Balkans hate turkey and would stop it in Europe Iran would also keep turkey in check in the middle east and Italy would also keep turkey in check in middle of Mediterranean sea all the regional powers are equal to Turkey
@Egg T A lot of people predicted that another major pandemic would occur around this time. Just looking at the trends, a large pandemic seems to happen every hundred years, and the last big pandemic was in 1918
He wrote a second book that is simply called "The Next Decade", which is simply the first half of this book in greater detail... adding some stuff mostly about Israel (which he thinks the US will slowly leave as an ally), North Korea (and how both Koreas might start working towards re-unification), and India is set up to surpass China.
This guy wrote a book - The Coming War With Japan in 91 how by the 2010s US and Japan would be in a Cold War (with possibility of it going hot). About how Japan would militarize within a generation. He is legit throwing crazy stuff to get publicity and sell books.
@@Petronium123 He accepted the title. And wrote the book, after all. About the war with Japan. About which he also writes in this book (though with a bit later date).
Friedman was a classic contrarian. He begins by thinking everyone else is wrong and something overlooked must be right. While this is sometimes true, things are often overlooked for good reason. Poland for example has a rapidly aging population of only 38 million. Turkey’s 83 million is the same size as Germany but as poor as Thailand per capita. Turkey is only strong relative to their weak neighbors but they could never hope to be a global power. Friedman’s optimism for Poland is based on his assumption that the United States can make that happen because it can do anything, even will minor countries into superpowers. The example he gives is South Korea, while giving the Koreans no agency for their own success. His views on China and Japan seem full on Orientalist. He sees Asians as fundamentally unchanging, will always return to the archetype of the fragmented China and militaristic Japan of a century ago.
Completely agree with your take. Friedman just doesn't have what it takes to present a realistic scenario on the future. Being educated in International Relations this reeks of the realist, geopolitical idea of the how the world functions, which I think is an extremely reductionist take. What about changing economic conditions? What political systems will develop? How will technology go? Will economic cooperation make way for closer political, social and cultural ties? How will global culture develop in this world? But nope, all of this is overshadowed by uniform state actors just allying and fighting each-other. Wow, great job Friedman. If I wanted the exact same take, I would've asked a 14 year old who believes that all there is to geopolitics is just unchanging, united and competitive state-based interactions.
Turkey isn't even that strong relative to its neighbors. Iran has a similar area, population, and economy. Saudi Arabia has a similar area, economy, and air force. Israel has better IT, missiles, and air force. Egypt has a similar area, population, navy, and air force. Greece is all around the Aegean Sea. And then there's Russia to the north.
The US's economic and military strength are fairly removed from changes in the rest of the world. It was probably a lot more difficult for him to imagine reasons why its influence would falter than why it would stay relatively the same.
@@denpadolt9242 I Don't think the US will decline in Economic and Military strength, I think it's more like China, India, and perhaps even Nigeria or some other African nation will catch up to the US.
Joshua Barnes Turkey will become influential but not like this guy said. You see, turkey is surrounded by failed or weak states other than Russia and Iran. It will be easy for these to stretch influence in the Middle East. Of course, they will not recreate Ottoman Empire lol
All predicting the future does is show how predicting the future is a fool's errand. It is still fun though to be impressed by what people got right and laugh at the stuff that they got horribly wrong.
Eh he really could have done better than sidelining two of the major world powers (China and Russia) in favor of some weird mix between neo-Ottoman and weeb fantasies.
Actually this happens with Drones in the middle east right now, because they are cheap, no risk for your soldiers and can easily overwhelm enemie air defences. Militarys around the world tend to use more and more automatic targeting systems. You have to basically do nothing
Nukes are nothing more than a technology from the 1940s so becoming a nuclear power is not so hard for most G-20 countries. If even North Korea and Pakistan are nuclear powers be sure that Poland, Turkey and Japan can pull it of easily. Japan in particular has enough nuclear material, workforce and infrastructure to produce nukes in a matter of weeks if they want to. Turkey is a potential nuclear power too even though it is under NATO’s nuclear umbrella. Big investments are done in nuclear reactors, uranium production and missiles in the last few years+ Turkey already has nuclear technologies and know how of it’s own. Uranium enrichment Centrifuges used by Pakistan in their nuclear program were provided with the help of Turkey for example. Some even claim that Turkey already has a bomb but who knows. As for Poland I have no idea.
@@lokumftw2621 On paper Poland can pull it off within like (a vague guess) 30 years? But they and the rest of this trio have no reason or even care to do it.
@@Compucles No, and that's the biggest reason why it hasn't happened yet. The only realistic scenario where I can see this happening is if the US withdraws from East Asia entirely (they'd have to scrap several treaties in order to stop being obliged to defend Japan) and Japan feels the need to have its own nuclear deterrent against N. Korea and China.
A few of his predictions seemed to loosely be throwbacks to the past actions of those countries. • Russia trying to amass its Soviet lands again • His predictions about China reminded me of Qing dynasty in the 18th 19th centuries, being massively powerful but economically attacked by multiple countries. • America got to keep on its usual path of military dominance • turkey tries to regain ottoman empire lands or something
I have heard from others that China is not as economically strong as everyone thinks, with the number of wealthy people who leave China for greener pastures and China becoming more and more authoritarian being given as examples of this. I can see it being true.
@@jonathancampbell5231 the wealth people who leave china right now are typically two types of people. First types are corrupt officials who fears that they will get catch one day so they bring the money they earned illegally from their government position and escaped to other countries. Second types are generally those old factories owners who are used to using lots of shady method to undercut employees wage and beneifits and facing the problem that government is actually starting to act on some of those questionable practices, they can't keep up with the regulation so they flee with the wealth they made.
Friedman's WWIII: Japan: "Say Turkey, how about we try to take over the world?" Turkey: "Sure! I would love to rebuild the Ottoman- I mean...expand my sphere of influence." Germany: "Can I join you guys? I'm always present in these things, ya know." Japan and Turkey: *WWI and WWII flashbacks* "...Sure..." Germany: "Yup, it'll be just like old times!"
@La nova renaissance And you'd be wrong. They were on the losing side, albeit having the less harsher treaty than the other states the Central Powers invaded, them breaking it AFTER the war doesn't change the fact they still lost and had a treaty to start. That's like saying the Russians/Soviets didn't lose their end of the war because they were able to conquer most of their lost provinces almost immediately after.
"Japan, Poland and Turkey are nuclear powers" Bro Poland can't even into space Edit: don't get salty, "Poland can't into space" is a countryballs meme, long live Polska
Well he is a Jew whose family survived the Holocaust. He probably doesn't like Germany a lot. So in the book he hopes that the countries that Germans most dislike, Poland and Turkey, will be great powers, because that would annoy Germany. But while Turkey is kind of plausible the part about Poland seems like wishful thinking.
Stupid. He also predicts (rightly or wrongly) that Japan, Turkey, and finally Mexico will become superpowers and challenge the US for dominance. It doesn't mean he hates those countries.
This book was good in the first half when he explained different countries geopolitical strategies but it lost me when it trying to predict the future. 6/10 I would have liked it more if I read it when it came out.
Yeah, say what you want about China (and there are many, _many_ things that can be said), but their ecomonic growth over the last two decades is impressive.
By 2100, Humans will have the complete ability to control the climate. We will be able to make it warmer, or wetter, or drier, or cooler. This ability will allow Humans to carefully control the Earth's climate and eventually terraform Mars and the rest of the Solar System. Climate Change is not necessarily evil. It is just the next step in human civilization. If we don't learn to control the climate then we just die. So there are really only 2 options here.
@@error5202 We already control the climate. That is what climate change is. The problem is that humans are only pushing it one way. Using Carbon capture and other technology we will find a way to cool the climate. After that we are overdue for another ice age and we will find ways to carefully warm the climate out of another ice age. This is inevitable. Otherwise we all die.
3:01 “Russia will attempt to reassert itself as a power and try to bring back influence or domination over former Soviet territories” Ukraine: *Profuse sweating*
Though, it's easy to sort of dunk on Friedman's predictions from what we know now, if you think about it from the perspective of what people learned and experienced throughout when Friedman was getting his education (i.e. the 1960s, or the height of the Cold War in the US) as well as the things he had experienced during his professional career (The 80s and 90s, most notably). To start, Friedman's specialization has been mostly been in political analysis under a military/strategic discipline, so it makes sense that he focuses more on those aspects of military power projection, which perhaps hasn't aged all that well given the rise of economic leverage as part of grand strategy. With that in mind, it makes sense that he focuses almost entirely on predictions based on military power given his knowledge of the time: Russia had dealt with immense fragmentation and internal rebellion in Chechenya and Georgia, as well as China's commonly-viewed ill-disciplined military - an impression that is fading but still somewhat kept by many analysts - in addition to its then-troubles in Tibet in 2008. On that note, most Western thinkers had been historically very...*unimpressed* with China's performance as a whole during most of the Cold War, and even into the years after. I think this is an attitude which has been harder to shake off than others, given that China has in fact expanded more than perhaps most people thought they really *would*. But, given the recent events that had happened in that time period, I don't think all of his predictions were *insane*, considering what had happened just the year before.
The biggest issue with Friedman is the biggest issue I had with Clancy. Major events happen but society is not changed fundamentally and by extension the state. The America of Tom Clancy novels goes through major upheavals( like the nuking of Denver) yet there's very little indication of a changed society. Same here WW3 as presented in this book is a hilariously cozy affair with the japanese still the bad guys(I guess Friedman listened too intently to stories about Pearl Harbor as a kid). Again because a trully brutal war would radically change politics. Europe was largely unrecognisable in 1923 after a decade of upheaval.
@@HAL-ov6nv He actually didn’t say they would be kicked out of NATO per say. Instead he said that NATO as whole would simmer out because most of its members wouldn’t be interested in it anymore. Countries like Spain or even Germany just wouldn’t be interested in protecting Poland or the Baltic’s from Russia. He seems to have been right about that at least to an extent.
One of the only thing people should really hate about Japan (at least surface level) is the police interrogation, it's practically torture, which is why do many people plead guilty
Plot twist: the guy is actually a time traveler from 2100 and trying to prevent something horrible. Every wrong prediction up to 2020 caused by changing time line
As a note to everyone, it appears that this book was basing its prediction at 3:30 on the efforts of the Visegrad Group and the rebuilding of the Polish military that began in 2008. As of 2020 Poland has 5th largest European military in NATO have still growing and has made huge efforts to create a citizen militia twice the size of its regular military.
Thats mostly due to their "particular" ideology and mindset that arrived in the last decade as well as big daddy Russia being at their doorstep all the time. There's quite a stretch between that and reforming the Commonwealth of old, specially considering how the Polish economy literally depends on EU aid still.
I feel like there so amarican allies dominant like how would you think china and russia would collapse but smaller countries right next to them would rise and wouldn't african birth rates rise and industry increases and improve making at east 1 african superpower who would have an african block of some kind
4:07 oh how much can change in a year or two... His Ukraine prediction sadly became even more of a reality and Russia's collapse seems way more likely now than it did just a year ago.
Because he's cut from the same mold and generation as Clancy. Its also convenient that WW3 instead of being an even more brutal war seems like a pretty nice affair. Sure people die but nothing like the brutality of the previous world wars. Maybe because it allows peace without trully radical changes to politics. A WW3 that makes WW2 seem civilised would make it unlikely that politics would return to relative tranquility.
Hes gotta sell those books somehow. A boring prediction of a future were countries are too tied down by day to day domestic politics to engage in history making events would put his audience to sleep.
He actually did talk about climate change it just wasn’t in the video. He essentially predicted that over the coming decades gas emission would resolve itself due to the rise of electric technology. It remains to be seen how right he was, but the rise of Tesla and the like certainly gives some credence to him.
@@mrtusason6847 That sounds a bit too optimistic, tbf. Zero carbon emissions by 2040 is already an almost utopian objective for most developed nations, let alone the developing world who are still industrializing. Maybe we do manage to pull a "Green Revolution"-like situation with that kind of technology, but I'm personally quite pessimistic in that regard.
The poor man has no idea. WWI began for no predictable reason, WWII was very predictable. || it's more likely that economies will collapse, unless many reforms are made.
As someone who read this entire book years ago, I can confirm that it aged horribly. My current headcanon is that it's more of a subtle "here's what US foreign policy should try to do" than a "here's what I think will actually happen". Considering the author's background, I find this more likely than if the book were genuinely just about attempting to make predictions.
90% of future books written among persons associated with political science are actually about what they think their countries should do. They're also quite cautious. No one thinks of trully daring scenarios say 'the rise of a new Hitler' or something. Even the daring scenarios are not really that daring 'WW3 without genocide? how convenient'.
@@giannis_m I was wrong, I accept it, USA and West in general do not want Russia to collapse, they afraid of nukes, imagine Russian Federation collapsed and 4000+ nukes are in black market. I changed my opinion. Real war is going to happen in East Pacific, AUKUS(Australia, United Kingdom, United States) want to use Russia against China, after 10 years, China will be superior to USA in navy and UAV, big big aircraft carriers become OBSOLETE. that is a problem, so they decide to kill China while they can. Problem is that, USA and West in general became as soft as little girls in kinder garden they need someone to do dirty job.
Turkey: hey Japan lets Start ww3 and occupy everything Japan: sure 1 sec Later Germany: hey guys can i be in your alliance? Neo Ottoman Order: sure Poland: not so fast itsa me NEO COMMONWEALTH: NEO WİNGED HUSSARS!!!!
There's this guy named YNot1989 on Deviantart who made maps of Friedman's timeline. I dunno whether he actually believes this'll happen himself or not, but whenever questioned on it (including by me) he sure acted as though he believed it. LOL.
9:55 - yeah, no way Finland will annex Republic of Karelia, but not Karelian Isthmus. If they would annex something, it would be the latter, not the former. Also, I doubt any small country like Finland would ever risk a conflict with huge nuclear power, like Russia or any other. And I can imagine some republics of North Caucasus breaking away from Russia but not the ethnically Russian Far East
He himself says in the book that the specific details of WWIII he mentions are just made up and there for the readers' entertainment. I know that in your search for views you need to make this book sound as ludicrous as possible, but I don't think you've done it justice.
I find the China decentralization prediction particularly ignorant since we have literally millennia of Chinese regimes consistently pursuing centralization and state power.
yeah it really seems more like his personal fantasy than an actual prediction. though i guess this was before Xi Jinping came along and i don't know anything about Hu Jintao so who knows
He is clearly basing his prediction off of the Chinese history of a central power giving way to localism, but modern China is definitely not in that stage yet.
@@ennui9745 yes, there have been many devastating collapses, some lasted for decades. But every time a new ruling entity united the land, realm peace was restored, that lasted for centuries
The Russia trying to assert itself over Ukraine is even scarier now. If anyone sees this in the future this was posted the day after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 2022. If there is another Russian break-up it wil be due to the economic isolation it's facing.
its economic integration that led to the "break up" and economic isolation (real, including no diplomatic recognition, not this current fake isolation) of the 1920s that built/created the country.
I don’t think nearly enough comments are talking about TigerStar’s literal “It’s time for World War III!” Gotta love Germany coming out of nowhere like, “How DARE you start a World War without us!”
7:27 And yeah, he predicted the Arab spring, I remember that it was stated in the book that the Middle East especially the region to the south of Turkey will destabilize during the second US-Russian cold war.
I give him props for predicting in that Russia will be a headache for the US. At the time everyone was focusing on the War on Terror and more concerned with Islamic terrorism. Even Obama 4 years after this book published and had 1 term as a president still said Russia is still not a concern in American's foreign policy. 10 years after that comment that was made, we are more focused on whats going on in with Russia and less so with Islamic terrorism despite the Taliban back in power.
I thought, it was too specific, when he predicted when Slovenia and Croatia will join the Polish bloc. But then he mentioned the start date of WWIII (precise to the hour) and exactly how it is fought. This sounds more like an elaborate alternative history scenario rather than a prediction of the future.
He started pretty well on his predictions about Turkey but weng off the rails when he said that they were going to claim Crimea from Russia. Also for some reason he seems to think that the russians are already over even if they still exert control over their inmediate region.
@@perrypro1263 The Russians are absolutely a paper tiger though. Their economy is frail and I fear for what happens when Putin is no longer in power. They're a dying empire lashing out during their last breaths before they become a shell of their former selves.
As someone who also read the book, I'd like to add that Friedman prefaces his extremely specific dates and times and exact events of WWIII by saying it's a dramatic depiction of how it *could* go, based on geopolitical knowledge, technological predictions, and his own fancy. Perhaps he or his editors thought the section could use some more spice? News reports from 2016 said Sam Raimi would direct a film based on it, but that hasn't panned out.
Turkey: Knowing extended spending on a lot of Turkish military companies and Turkey's extended national arms production, i'd say somewhat plausible. Poland: What in god went here?
This seemed at least theoretically reasonable until the random and weirdly specific Pearl Harbour 2 Orbital Boogaloo. The vision of Commonwealth 2.0 is admittedly alluring to me (as you can probably tell from my profile picture) but overall, I think I'll pass on this book. Edit: I think that I should specify that I would not like to see Poland "directly controlling" Belarus or any other of our neighbours, as some imperialistic overlord, but a consensual close relationship (alliance, maybe union) would be nice.
I don't know what the author has with Pearl Harbor 2, but in an earlier book (in the 90's) he already said a US-Japan war was coming... in the next 20 years. Well, still waiting for it.
In book - Poland make a strong Trójmorze and be a superpower. In real life - Poland becomes a Christian Kaczogród Dictature, and destroys his economy during a pandemic and leads to national protests through its actions
@@bar88888 Just some temporary technical difficulties. Things will surely get better. :) Is what I tell myself to maintain my increasingly fragile sanity...
Ngl I find kind of hilarious the omission of the EU as a whole, even if even today (And in 2009) you can argue it's the third most important sort-of-country after the US and China...
In the book he did actually talk about the EU a lot it just wasn’t mentioned in the video. He said that the Union would face growing tension between member nations and a nationalist resurgence. He defiantly got that spot on. It remains to be seen though if the EU will collapse like he said it would.
@@BBP-OMO It does work like a country many times. And economically it's very connected and very much works like a country. Which is why the UK shot themselves in the foot with their foolishness. I would say it is a country, but not in the common/modern sense. It's a country in the way that the HRE was a country. Well, it basically IS the modern HRE.
@@BBP-OMO nation ≠ country . We are not one nation, but the EU itself is very much a grey area whether or not it is a country. It has its own debt for example but currently doesn't raise it's own taxes(tho it has legal basis to do so). It also has the ability to pass laws which have primacy over national laws. It doesn't have an army, but does have some limited ability to use member state troops. It's not fully a country but it's not any less of a country than say the US before the current Constitution. In some areas the EU does have jurisdiction over the member states, say in matters relating to trade as well as some regulations. So you can't really say it is a country nor can you it's definitely not.
If you like Friedman, you will love Zeihan. He published a quite similar book a year ago where he predicted a war between Germany and Russia, right before both powers would divide Poland among them. (I mean, if he had published that book 100 years ago, I'd be impressed.) Afterwards most parts of the world will die down as the U.S. becomes more isolationist and nobody can import grain any longer. Both, Friedman and Zeihan, work for Stratfor. I don't know what to make of them. They know something about history and about the reasons why powers of the past might be powers of the future. (It is surely no coincidence that the Ottoman Empire at its height looked eerily similar to the Eastern Roman Empire at its height... same geographical center, same neighbourhood, similar expansion patterns etc.) But apart from that, there is a lot of stuff which is either way too specific (as the date for WWIII with Friedman) or way too overblown. I think that their anti-Russian, anti-China, anti-German bias shows (especially their disdain for China).
Yea, i've read some Zeihan too. He's incrediably American bias, but way too anti-China (despite China being being a great power throughout all of history). But I do like how he shows his methodogy atleast, focusing heavily on things such self sufficiency(food and energy), demograpics and deglobalisation. I personally think we're gonna be somewhere between a China collapsing Zeihen prediction and the scared "the future is China" type crowds. I see China slowing down in coming decades but still being a strong force with a large sphere of influence. I personally think it could overtake America (not sure), but America will still be a great power with large influence if it doesn't tear itself apart. Zeihan I think will be correct in his assertion that we're gonna see a more deglobalised world, with diffrent spheres of regions with the main power focusing mostly on their spheres of influence. But not to the extreme he says.
@@dogetaxes8893 The thing with Zeihan is that he always over-exaggerates bad things and undersells good things. He used to say stuff like there was near to zero contribution from sustainable energies to German energy production, which is untrue with numbers as high as 50 % (with fluctuations, of course). There are many more instances in which he just absurdly catastrophizes moderate challenges or neglects to see progresses such as the already achieved energy transition progress.
I’d argue in the pre-2020 stuff, the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh War falls into the, Turkey asserting itself as a regional power prediction. And Trump’s election falls into the “US is still a teenager willing to take risks” argument he makes a few times. Trump’s policies however ended up contradicting most of his predictions…
The prediction of a Polish-led military-economic bloc actually came true, kinda. It's called the Visegrad Group of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia. This group has been extremely prominent in providing military aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia. Then there's a new emerging Polish-led bloc encompassing more countries in eastern Europe called the Three Seas Initiative that links central and eastern European countries together from the Baltics to the Black Sean and Adriatic (hence the name). Aside from Ukraine and Belarus its membership is nearly identical to the map of the Polish-led org shown at the end of this video. As for Turkey they are expanding economically, culturally and militarily into neighbouring countries at this stage. Azerbaijan is effectively now a mere Turkish proxy/satellite state fighting against Armenia. Bosnia is to some extent now part of the Turkish sphere. And Ukraine's reliance on Turkish military equipment, particularly drones, has brought it closer to Ankara.
Of course other predictions are laughably wrong, and would have been known to be wrong even in 2009. There is zero chance of Japan rising again to great power status, let alone becoming a superpower. Its population decline is worse than many people think, to the point by the 2100 it will have a population, and economy, roughly half of what it is today. That is unless they bite the bullet and open up its borders to mass immigration like what the West was forced to do after WWII. If Japan were to allow for fairly unrestricted immigration to Japan (only requirement for permanent residency/citizenship is knowledge of the language) then they could conceivably become a rising power again. But they won't, instead placing their faith in robotics...... Such a sad end to a fascinating nation.
@@mlc4495Nikkei-225 at all time highs. Semiconductors returning to Japan. Rapidus building 2nm factory. Toyota reaches record market share and is the most profitable automaker. The paradigm shift is happening in real time from China to Japan.
I thought I was the only one who read this book. Always thought it was a bit wacky starting with the Poland stuff. From there it just is a lot of future guessing.
Kinda just seems like this is a dude who has 0 understanding of international relations, geopolitics, politics, economics, or socio-cultural dynamics... Kinda seems like a cheesy fanfic
He doesn’t really have that excuse as a political scientist. He is clearly completely blinded by ideology to the point where he wrote edgy 14 year old level fanfic.
Poland and Germany are like Batman and Joker. There's no way they will be in one block, even when their biggest trade partner China is in one camp with Poland and US :D
The second half feels like it belongs in a science fiction novel. Almost like Friedman was working on two separate manuscripts and the soft files somehow blended together.
Korea unifying before 2030 is something that just doesn't make any sense at all, like idk how he thinks that's possible it costs so much money for south korea
![Twenty One Pilots - “The Line” (from Arcane Season 2) [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/E2Rj2gQAyPA/mqdefault.jpg)
Me hearing his 2020 predictions: Ok, he got a lot wrong, but I'm still impressed he got that much right.
Me hearing the rest: ... what?
What if his record of being half right continues? We got a wild ride coming.
@TailExchange Russians don't controll Moldovia.
It seems like he's gone crazy, as further we go into future the more is just fantasy.
The things he got right weren’t exactly impressive. He was only predicting 10 years ahead. Should get somethings right
He trying to predict WWIII was almost like reading an astrologycal based romance…
sounds like a HOI4 Millenium Dawn mod game that went really off the rails
Yeah, speacially with that Mexico stuff
bro what a good point
@@miguelsilveira6803 that part seems believable though, Aztlán could become a country in the future if the US keeps ending up with conservative Presidents as the Southwest gets more left-wing.
y e s
@Egg T that has nothing to do with what I said.
This sounds like me and the boys playing a CIV 5 game
@malta Double the likes babyyyyy
CIV5 ıs more realistic.
@@ilkergoksel5671 CIV V is better and has my beloved queen Maria I the madqueen, so i can build a civilization that will stand the test of time.
Why Civ V, the worst game of the series?
@@PewPew1234567 who says that? game critics? CIV V is the best game of the series in my opinion, even tho my heart will always be with CIVIII but every time i go back to that game i cry with the stupid game mechanics, things evolve but CIV VI just makes me mad for the overwhelming critic made by fans and buyers of the game that the game looks like it was designed for tablet or smarthphone use.
Friedman kind of went bonkers. From 2020 onwards it's like writing a book based on someone's post on an alt-history forum.
He sounds like an American exceptionalist. "Everyone will collapse, but the USA will still rule the world"
@Chad Summerchild i think monsieur Z must be inspired here
@@KateeAngel He's born in 1949. So his values reflect the era he grew up in. While people think of the 60s as the hippie era for persons who went on to work for the government or become associated with it the exact opposite was the case. A highly conservative view prevailed. Which would be seen in the 80s with guys like Tom Clancy.
I actually discovered Friedman through a "future history" timeline that used most of his predictions (The Second Renaissance by YNot1989 if you are interested). It's quite an interesting and well-written timeline, but it ends up feeling like American wish-fulfilment, with an Americas-wide US establishing what are little more than protectorates over the über-balkanized Old World while it undergoes the colonization of the Solar System in the first half of the 22nd Century.
@Egg T we need to kill It first, great idea
12:28 Did this dude just seriously predicted a space pearl harbor?
Considering how he's born in 1949 it makes sense for him to imagine that despite how absurd it is. He grew up in the shadow of that event so his references are gonna include it.
He did indeed.
Pearl Spaceport
lol sounds like he is indeed a boomer thats salty that they will soon be gone and apparently the US economy will supposedly suffer from their loss hahaha
No he did that 13 years ago.
Man that Book sounds like some shitpost with the weird obsesión with otttoman empire 2.0 electric bogalo
Literally it is "Alternate Futute of the World" but in book format instead of mapping video
perfect summary
Well, the author said that he knows that he won't get everything right and if only a small portion of what he has written comes true, he would be happy.
But I don't think that he got too many things wrong up to now, the most obvious error is the prediction of China fragmenting around 2020, and the Chinese economy stagnating after 2008 economic crisis, well, China's economic growth did slow down from 14% in 2007 to around 6% by the mid-2010s, but of course, it isn't stagnation, however, if you would look at the Chinese economy right now, it may be where they are heading towards in 2020s (so maybe he's got the timing wrong? maybe not.)
He also said that Russia will try to reassert itself in the post-Soviet Union - recent events in Ukraine, Karabakh, Belarus (yeah he didn't specifically predict the war in Karabakh but he said that there will be a crisis in the Caucasus after which the Russians will reassert themselves in the region and it would lead to a security crisis in Turkey. So the Russians are now back in Azerbaijan and Armenia and Turkey by actively supporting Azerbaijan and sending its troops basically by all means possible tried to prevent Russians from returning to the region. So isn't this prediction right?
He also said that the Arab world would destabilize in the 2nd half of the 2010s, (well it destabilized a bit faster since 2011) and that Russia would use this destabilization to turn the US and Turkish focus on the Middle East rather than Ukraine and the Caucasus, well, isn't that what kind of happens right now? The Russians are supporting YPG in Syria to force Turkey to focus its resources on Syria instead of the Caucasus?
In addition, he predicted that Turkey would have to fight in Syria and Iraq to suppress the Kurdish uprisings there, isn't that true as well?
He said that Russia will collapse not long after 2020 as a result of the Cold War 2.0 with the U.S. just as the USSR collapsed after the 1st one, well we don't know yet whether is he right or wrong yet, but Russia experiences severe economic problems since 2014 - Because of the low oil prices, high military spending and sanctions. So, can he be right? Maybe Russia won't collapse in 2023 but what about 2025? Wouldn't that be technically correct?
And yeah he also predicted that the EU will struggle to maintain unity - BREXIT, Poland & Hungary not accepting the EU decisions about the refugees.
Polish alliance - Poland did form the "3 seas initiative" in 2015.
Yeah I do believe that Turkey could lead the middle east but not forgetting that the greeks(which yes a have bad economy but put a lot of effort into military) and basically the whole Balkans hate turkey and would stop it in Europe Iran would also keep turkey in check in the middle east and Italy would also keep turkey in check in middle of Mediterranean sea all the regional powers are equal to Turkey
@Egg T A lot of people predicted that another major pandemic would occur around this time. Just looking at the trends, a large pandemic seems to happen every hundred years, and the last big pandemic was in 1918
This turned into a weird science fiction book. Shoulda stopped at 2020.
But he was very right about the u.s. seeking to commercialize space.
He wrote a second book that is simply called "The Next Decade", which is simply the first half of this book in greater detail... adding some stuff mostly about Israel (which he thinks the US will slowly leave as an ally), North Korea (and how both Koreas might start working towards re-unification), and India is set up to surpass China.
This guy wrote a book - The Coming War With Japan in 91 how by the 2010s US and Japan would be in a Cold War (with possibility of it going hot). About how Japan would militarize within a generation.
He is legit throwing crazy stuff to get publicity and sell books.
@@nikolatasev4948 Important to keep in mind that he didn't write the title for that book, his publisher did.
@@Petronium123 He accepted the title. And wrote the book, after all. About the war with Japan. About which he also writes in this book (though with a bit later date).
Friedman was a classic contrarian. He begins by thinking everyone else is wrong and something overlooked must be right. While this is sometimes true, things are often overlooked for good reason.
Poland for example has a rapidly aging population of only 38 million. Turkey’s 83 million is the same size as Germany but as poor as Thailand per capita. Turkey is only strong relative to their weak neighbors but they could never hope to be a global power.
Friedman’s optimism for Poland is based on his assumption that the United States can make that happen because it can do anything, even will minor countries into superpowers. The example he gives is South Korea, while giving the Koreans no agency for their own success.
His views on China and Japan seem full on Orientalist. He sees Asians as fundamentally unchanging, will always return to the archetype of the fragmented China and militaristic Japan of a century ago.
Completely agree with your take. Friedman just doesn't have what it takes to present a realistic scenario on the future. Being educated in International Relations this reeks of the realist, geopolitical idea of the how the world functions, which I think is an extremely reductionist take. What about changing economic conditions? What political systems will develop? How will technology go? Will economic cooperation make way for closer political, social and cultural ties? How will global culture develop in this world?
But nope, all of this is overshadowed by uniform state actors just allying and fighting each-other. Wow, great job Friedman. If I wanted the exact same take, I would've asked a 14 year old who believes that all there is to geopolitics is just unchanging, united and competitive state-based interactions.
Poland stuff is ridiculous, of course but Turkey not so much. Their economy is growing to a point that they are pretty much a developed country.
Turkey isn't even that strong relative to its neighbors. Iran has a similar area, population, and economy. Saudi Arabia has a similar area, economy, and air force. Israel has better IT, missiles, and air force. Egypt has a similar area, population, navy, and air force. Greece is all around the Aegean Sea. And then there's Russia to the north.
he is for some reason really salty against japan...
Just like whatifalthist.
This book feels like it starts out reasonable and then turns into an American patriot's wish fufillment
Not really. More like a neo-Ottoman/weaboo wish fulfilment.
The US's economic and military strength are fairly removed from changes in the rest of the world. It was probably a lot more difficult for him to imagine reasons why its influence would falter than why it would stay relatively the same.
This is exactly what I thought
@@denpadolt9242
I Don't think the US will decline in Economic and Military strength, I think it's more like China, India, and perhaps even Nigeria or some other African nation will catch up to the US.
"American patriot" "Friedman" something isnt right here...
Their are only two ways our planet will go either Switzerland conquers the world or Lichtenstein it depends on who wins the Cold War.
Bir tahil actually has better chances of doing that although idk if they can surpass the industrial might of new sealand
İ personally bet on liechtenstein but thats just me
Bullshit, Somaliland will become the next global hegemon.
@@poke-champ4256 me too
Too bad all of you are too blind to see that Brunei will easily conquer the world by 2023
Tannu Tuva world conquest is the only certain future
hahaha
tannu what?
Tannu WHAT?
@@erenyeager3829 the electric city
@@electrom.1703 bruh that was a hoi4 reference
I have that book! I remember thinking that his projections for Mexico and Turkey were a bit ambitious.
Ganyu
Mexican and Brazilian economy is increasing but the other stuff yep are crazy
I dont think the mexican stuff is ambitious to be fair but turkey is definitely
Wait until they get their Erdogan cloning technology off the ground, then we'll see who has the last laugh.
Joshua Barnes
Turkey will become influential but not like this guy said.
You see, turkey is surrounded by failed or weak states other than Russia and Iran. It will be easy for these to stretch influence in the Middle East. Of course, they will not recreate Ottoman Empire lol
"Mom, can we have Axis?"
"No, we have axis at home"
Axis at home: Japan, Turkey and Poland
This guy has a wierd fetish for turkey😂
You mean the Neo Ottoman Empire ?
"Yes, Pasha, harder!"
Whatifalthist be like:
And united Eastern Europe
Well, turkish women are beautiful ;)
All predicting the future does is show how predicting the future is a fool's errand. It is still fun though to be impressed by what people got right and laugh at the stuff that they got horribly wrong.
I predict that sometime in the next 50 years a war will happen somewhere
@@amerashi1111 I predict some time in the next 50 years, someone famous will die
@@stagbeetle1050 Donald trump.
Eh he really could have done better than sidelining two of the major world powers (China and Russia) in favor of some weird mix between neo-Ottoman and weeb fantasies.
Except Bismarck's predictions, of course
>robotic infantry
**PRUSSIAN SPACE MARINES**
150% discipline
Actually this happens with Drones in the middle east right now, because they are cheap, no risk for your soldiers and can easily overwhelm enemie air defences. Militarys around the world tend to use more and more automatic targeting systems. You have to basically do nothing
*plays Preussens Gloria and takes Prussia back*
@@gaurav.raj.mishra 70% infantry combat ability
Mann vs Machine
"Japan, Poland and Turkey are nuclear powers"
what kind of HOI4 mod is this
Nukes are nothing more than a technology from the 1940s so becoming a nuclear power is not so hard for most G-20 countries. If even North Korea and Pakistan are nuclear powers be sure that Poland, Turkey and Japan can pull it of easily. Japan in particular has enough nuclear material, workforce and infrastructure to produce nukes in a matter of weeks if they want to.
Turkey is a potential nuclear power too even though it is under NATO’s nuclear umbrella. Big investments are done in nuclear reactors, uranium production and missiles in the last few years+ Turkey already has nuclear technologies and know how of it’s own. Uranium enrichment Centrifuges used by Pakistan in their nuclear program were provided with the help of Turkey for example. Some even claim that Turkey already has a bomb but who knows.
As for Poland I have no idea.
@@lokumftw2621 On paper Poland can pull it off within like (a vague guess) 30 years? But they and the rest of this trio have no reason or even care to do it.
Turkey have nuclear weapons in fact
@@lokumftw2621 Would Japan even want to be a nuclear power, though?
@@Compucles No, and that's the biggest reason why it hasn't happened yet. The only realistic scenario where I can see this happening is if the US withdraws from East Asia entirely (they'd have to scrap several treaties in order to stop being obliged to defend Japan) and Japan feels the need to have its own nuclear deterrent against N. Korea and China.
His China predictions seem more wishful thinking than scientific.
"China is gonna collapse", if I had a penny for every time someone said that I'll be richer than Elon Musk
A few of his predictions seemed to loosely be throwbacks to the past actions of those countries.
• Russia trying to amass its Soviet lands again
• His predictions about China reminded me of Qing dynasty in the 18th 19th centuries, being massively powerful but economically attacked by multiple countries.
• America got to keep on its usual path of military dominance
• turkey tries to regain ottoman empire lands or something
I have heard from others that China is not as economically strong as everyone thinks, with the number of wealthy people who leave China for greener pastures and China becoming more and more authoritarian being given as examples of this. I can see it being true.
@@jonathancampbell5231 the wealth people who leave china right now are typically two types of people. First types are corrupt officials who fears that they will get catch one day so they bring the money they earned illegally from their government position and escaped to other countries. Second types are generally those old factories owners who are used to using lots of shady method to undercut employees wage and beneifits and facing the problem that government is actually starting to act on some of those questionable practices, they can't keep up with the regulation so they flee with the wealth they made.
Wishful? Seems rather pessimistic
Please, he predicted that Germany would lose a world war, am I suposed to be impresed?
World war 3 Germany: Thirds times a try
Ah come can't we even win the 3rd one
Germany: World War Three, Electric Boogatree
I'm pretty sure, we don't want to be in a third one, even, if we could win tis time.
@@ratatosk8935 depends on how easy we could win
This would make a good HOI4 mod.
Friedman's WWIII:
Japan: "Say Turkey, how about we try to take over the world?"
Turkey: "Sure! I would love to rebuild the Ottoman- I mean...expand my sphere of influence."
Germany: "Can I join you guys? I'm always present in these things, ya know."
Japan and Turkey: *WWI and WWII flashbacks* "...Sure..."
Germany: "Yup, it'll be just like old times!"
Germany: “Third times a try! We can win this time”
Italy: “hey what are you guys talking about?”
*Nervous winged hussars noises*
@@michaelsayavong2656 "Third time's the charm" -Romania, two time World War losing champion
@La nova renaissance And you'd be wrong. They were on the losing side, albeit having the less harsher treaty than the other states the Central Powers invaded, them breaking it AFTER the war doesn't change the fact they still lost and had a treaty to start.
That's like saying the Russians/Soviets didn't lose their end of the war because they were able to conquer most of their lost provinces almost immediately after.
Japan: "let's quickly and decisively strike US military bases far away from their mainland, that worked really good the last time we tried it"
"Japan, Poland and Turkey are nuclear powers"
Bro Poland can't even into space
Edit: don't get salty, "Poland can't into space" is a countryballs meme, long live Polska
lol
Poland was fourth country in space.
North Korea can’t get to space and they’re a nuclear power
No insult poland one day he will into space
:(
*angry intensifies*
This dude has a weird thing for Turkey and Poland huh?
Yea, like he have some sort of fetish for turkey and Poland
Well he is a Jew whose family survived the Holocaust. He probably doesn't like Germany a lot. So in the book he hopes that the countries that Germans most dislike, Poland and Turkey, will be great powers, because that would annoy Germany. But while Turkey is kind of plausible the part about Poland seems like wishful thinking.
A lot of alt-right social media channels that are US supremacist also have a fetish for Japan, Turkey, and Poland.
@@mikeisteinmongozwei5434 Isn't it more like Germany hate Poles and Turks the most?
@@kuvayinizamiye819 yeah turkish nationalists still praise german Empire and Not-see Germany
As a Turkish person i can clearly say that my ego is heavily fed
Your ego but not reality inflation is 30 %, collapsing economy do sanctions and edrogan mismanagement your in conflict
@@varangianguard4726 shhh let him sleep.
@@varangianguard4726 let him dream
@Ksjs Jdjdb how am i jealous that was a joke
@@varangianguard4726 I do know about the problems of my country, just wanted to make a joke about that guy forcefully making Turkey a great power.
Lmao all his predictions on Russia and China are basically just ‘i dont like them so they are gonna fail’
Are you saying you do 😅
True, he also likes Turkey and Poland very much
@@whitephoenixofthecrown2099 Yes
Stupid. He also predicts (rightly or wrongly) that Japan, Turkey, and finally Mexico will become superpowers and challenge the US for dominance. It doesn't mean he hates those countries.
This book was good in the first half when he explained different countries geopolitical strategies but it lost me when it trying to predict the future.
6/10 I would have liked it more if I read it when it came out.
As Neil Bohr said:
"Predictions are difficult to make; especially of the future."
I don’t really understand what it’s getting at
@Egg T I mean the “especially if the future”. Prediction are all about the future. It must have a double entendre
Niels Bohr, just FYI.
US Strategic interest: Prevent the rise of a Afro-Eurasian superpower.
*Xi Jingping has entered the chat*
Yeah, say what you want about China (and there are many, _many_ things that can be said), but their ecomonic growth over the last two decades is impressive.
@@concept5631 even pandemic couldn't hault their growth
And yet US seem more concerned with Russia. Country with 1/2 population of US and even less than that of GDP.
@@КрасныйОрёл-л9х the US is paranoid with every country that isnt part of NATO.
@@prussianrocket2702 Because it was intentionally made as a bioweapon
Have to admire his optimism predicting the next century without once mentioning Global Warming.
By 2100, Humans will have the complete ability to control the climate. We will be able to make it warmer, or wetter, or drier, or cooler. This ability will allow Humans to carefully control the Earth's climate and eventually terraform Mars and the rest of the Solar System. Climate Change is not necessarily evil. It is just the next step in human civilization.
If we don't learn to control the climate then we just die. So there are really only 2 options here.
@@genericyoutubeaccount579 globel wernin not reel
@@genericyoutubeaccount579 lol what? How do you think we will control the climate?
@@genericyoutubeaccount579 That seems quite a stretch I'd settle for taking measures to mitigate or reverse the current situation.
@@error5202 We already control the climate. That is what climate change is. The problem is that humans are only pushing it one way. Using Carbon capture and other technology we will find a way to cool the climate. After that we are overdue for another ice age and we will find ways to carefully warm the climate out of another ice age. This is inevitable. Otherwise we all die.
3:01 “Russia will attempt to reassert itself as a power and try to bring back influence or domination over former Soviet territories”
Ukraine: *Profuse sweating*
Though, it's easy to sort of dunk on Friedman's predictions from what we know now, if you think about it from the perspective of what people learned and experienced throughout when Friedman was getting his education (i.e. the 1960s, or the height of the Cold War in the US) as well as the things he had experienced during his professional career (The 80s and 90s, most notably).
To start, Friedman's specialization has been mostly been in political analysis under a military/strategic discipline, so it makes sense that he focuses more on those aspects of military power projection, which perhaps hasn't aged all that well given the rise of economic leverage as part of grand strategy. With that in mind, it makes sense that he focuses almost entirely on predictions based on military power given his knowledge of the time: Russia had dealt with immense fragmentation and internal rebellion in Chechenya and Georgia, as well as China's commonly-viewed ill-disciplined military - an impression that is fading but still somewhat kept by many analysts - in addition to its then-troubles in Tibet in 2008.
On that note, most Western thinkers had been historically very...*unimpressed* with China's performance as a whole during most of the Cold War, and even into the years after. I think this is an attitude which has been harder to shake off than others, given that China has in fact expanded more than perhaps most people thought they really *would*. But, given the recent events that had happened in that time period, I don't think all of his predictions were *insane*, considering what had happened just the year before.
The biggest issue with Friedman is the biggest issue I had with Clancy. Major events happen but society is not changed fundamentally and by extension the state. The America of Tom Clancy novels goes through major upheavals( like the nuking of Denver) yet there's very little indication of a changed society. Same here WW3 as presented in this book is a hilariously cozy affair with the japanese still the bad guys(I guess Friedman listened too intently to stories about Pearl Harbor as a kid). Again because a trully brutal war would radically change politics. Europe was largely unrecognisable in 1923 after a decade of upheaval.
@M. Hobo Fun fact: Polish writers during interwar period get it right and prophesied the rise of China and fall of the soviet union.
What was his reasoning for Poland being kicked out of NATO? Seems like a dumb move on NATO's part.
Yeah NATO was founded for the exact purpose of defending these countries
@@ilikewatermelon2401 ???
They weren't part of NATO when it was founded.
@@HAL-ov6nv That's not what he said
@@fgqgqlfqsfsffeff What did he mean then?
@@HAL-ov6nv He actually didn’t say they would be kicked out of NATO per say. Instead he said that NATO as whole would simmer out because most of its members wouldn’t be interested in it anymore. Countries like Spain or even Germany just wouldn’t be interested in protecting Poland or the Baltic’s from Russia. He seems to have been right about that at least to an extent.
So on pre-2020, Friedman really wanted the Międzymorze timeline to exist.
As much as he clearly loves the US, he is also definitely an Ottoman fanboy and a weeb
Also he has a lot of affection for Poland which is understandable due to his Hungarian origin.
And he hates Russia and China.
The Japanese actually are surprisingly efficient, they've modernized faster than most of the West on two notable occasions
@@jzargowinterhold1942 as most should in all honesty
One of the only thing people should really hate about Japan (at least surface level) is the police interrogation, it's practically torture, which is why do many people plead guilty
I can't wait until November 24, 2050, at 5:30PM.
Let's start with the countdown to celebrate the WW III as a new year party
Plot twist: the guy is actually a time traveler from 2100 and trying to prevent something horrible. Every wrong prediction up to 2020 caused by changing time line
--Robotic warfare between the Modern Commonwealth and Neo-Ottoman Empire--
*Terminator Jannisaries vs Heavy Metal Winged Hussar Unicorns*
Glorious
This guy: U.S. is a super power because they rule the waves
Alfred Thayer Mahan: Wow, very original, such genius thought...
As a note to everyone, it appears that this book was basing its prediction at 3:30 on the efforts of the Visegrad Group and the rebuilding of the Polish military that began in 2008. As of 2020 Poland has 5th largest European military in NATO have still growing and has made huge efforts to create a citizen militia twice the size of its regular military.
Thats mostly due to their "particular" ideology and mindset that arrived in the last decade as well as big daddy Russia being at their doorstep all the time. There's quite a stretch between that and reforming the Commonwealth of old, specially considering how the Polish economy literally depends on EU aid still.
Ever notice how none of these predictions where about anywhere in Africa?
I feel like there so amarican allies dominant like how would you think china and russia would collapse but smaller countries right next to them would rise and wouldn't african birth rates rise and industry increases and improve making at east 1 african superpower who would have an african block of some kind
I know right? The continent that's gonna change the most dramatically is conspicuously absent....
who cares about Africa lmfao
@@emptychair3932 Everyone. Asia and Africa are literally the future.
@@emptychair3932 you are just ignorant
"Japan+Turky+Germany" Hey iv seen this one! Its a classic!
not really they only share that they were all allies of German in one of the world wars, Japan was against Germany in ww1 and turkey's neutral in ww2
@@noaht8592 It's a WW3 where Germany manages to get the whole squad together.
Lets get the band back together guys!
Ok, but what about italy.
@@historyman9436 Mussolini's granddaughter is an Italian politician...
4:07 oh how much can change in a year or two...
His Ukraine prediction sadly became even more of a reality and Russia's collapse seems way more likely now than it did just a year ago.
Why did the WW3 arc become a Tom Clancy Novel?
Because he's cut from the same mold and generation as Clancy. Its also convenient that WW3 instead of being an even more brutal war seems like a pretty nice affair. Sure people die but nothing like the brutality of the previous world wars. Maybe because it allows peace without trully radical changes to politics. A WW3 that makes WW2 seem civilised would make it unlikely that politics would return to relative tranquility.
Hes gotta sell those books somehow. A boring prediction of a future were countries are too tied down by day to day domestic politics to engage in history making events would put his audience to sleep.
So....does this count as a “Bad History” video?
It’s not history... yet.
Bad future
@Egg T i can't wait to be 93 and see what 2100 is like
*looks at average life expactancy in my country*
F***
So nothing about climate change I suppose? Neat that that’s solved i guess job well done folks
"Don't worry, we'll solve it with weather technology or something. Can we go back to space Pearl Harbor?"
He actually did talk about climate change it just wasn’t in the video. He essentially predicted that over the coming decades gas emission would resolve itself due to the rise of electric technology. It remains to be seen how right he was, but the rise of Tesla and the like certainly gives some credence to him.
@@mrtusason6847 That sounds a bit too optimistic, tbf. Zero carbon emissions by 2040 is already an almost utopian objective for most developed nations, let alone the developing world who are still industrializing. Maybe we do manage to pull a "Green Revolution"-like situation with that kind of technology, but I'm personally quite pessimistic in that regard.
@@mrtusason6847 also GM is switching to an all electric line up and other car companies may follow suit, so there is some hope on the horizon
@@MaylocBrittinorum Well, maybe with could remake that Green revolution with a nuclear one.
2:55 How right he was
this just got a lot more accurate as of April 2022.
(Disregarding some of his predictions on Poland and china.)
I will predict the future.Things will happen in 10 years
Ganyu
Liar. Stuff will happen in 10 years.
Fine then, I’ll just pause the world for 10 years so people can’t do anything! How’s that? You couldn’t have predicted that!
but what if the universe is gone by then? Then nothing can happen in 10 years.
The poor man has no idea.
WWI began for no predictable reason, WWII was very predictable. || it's more likely that economies will collapse, unless many reforms are made.
As someone who read this entire book years ago, I can confirm that it aged horribly. My current headcanon is that it's more of a subtle "here's what US foreign policy should try to do" than a "here's what I think will actually happen". Considering the author's background, I find this more likely than if the book were genuinely just about attempting to make predictions.
90% of future books written among persons associated with political science are actually about what they think their countries should do. They're also quite cautious. No one thinks of trully daring scenarios say 'the rise of a new Hitler' or something. Even the daring scenarios are not really that daring 'WW3 without genocide? how convenient'.
Finally, Poland can into space T_T
I get the feeling that these predictions tell us more about him than the geopolitics of the globe.
This guy had such a fetish for a neo ottoman empire
@@aldogarciarussia fr not even turks want a old fashioned ottoman Empire
He puts a weird amount of stake in Turkey ironically given that Iran and Russia are drastically out preforming them as regional powers
oh boy mark my words, YOU WILL NOT SEE RUSSIA next year
@@stone8905 lmao
@@stone8905 lol
@@stone8905 I guess your predictions were slightly off, huh?
@@giannis_m I was wrong, I accept it, USA and West in general do not want Russia to collapse, they afraid of nukes, imagine Russian Federation collapsed and 4000+ nukes are in black market.
I changed my opinion.
Real war is going to happen in East Pacific, AUKUS(Australia, United Kingdom, United States) want to use Russia against China, after 10 years, China will be superior to USA in navy and UAV, big big aircraft carriers become OBSOLETE. that is a problem, so they decide to kill China while they can.
Problem is that, USA and West in general became as soft as little girls in kinder garden they need someone to do dirty job.
There were many ridiculous predictions, but the craziest one has to be nuclear japan and pearl harbor 2 in space
It's like one of these funny 2015 Afoe series.
Turkey: hey Japan lets Start ww3 and occupy everything
Japan: sure
1 sec Later
Germany: hey guys can i be in your alliance?
Neo Ottoman Order: sure
Poland: not so fast itsa me
NEO COMMONWEALTH: NEO WİNGED HUSSARS!!!!
Space Pearl Harbor and robotic winged hussars fighting techno-janissaries. What a vibe
They're very enjoyable, but the thing is, they're only %43 accurate. Plus I am a russian, But i love your videos, :)
Ganyu
Japan pulling out a file called "World War Plans" with the 2 crossed out and a 3 written over it in marker is hilarious to me.
There's this guy named YNot1989 on Deviantart who made maps of Friedman's timeline. I dunno whether he actually believes this'll happen himself or not, but whenever questioned on it (including by me) he sure acted as though he believed it. LOL.
That past year since this video has proven this guys book to be more accurate
9:55 - yeah, no way Finland will annex Republic of Karelia, but not Karelian Isthmus. If they would annex something, it would be the latter, not the former. Also, I doubt any small country like Finland would ever risk a conflict with huge nuclear power, like Russia or any other.
And I can imagine some republics of North Caucasus breaking away from Russia but not the ethnically Russian Far East
He himself says in the book that the specific details of WWIII he mentions are just made up and there for the readers' entertainment. I know that in your search for views you need to make this book sound as ludicrous as possible, but I don't think you've done it justice.
It's entertaining definitely
Japan has specialized Cat-Girl Anime Units, people were not ready.
"The commonwealth is back and better than ever!"
That line made me subscribe.
4:10 seems a lot more likely due to recent current events
3:48 Well, he was only 7 years late to be fair...
I find the China decentralization prediction particularly ignorant since we have literally millennia of Chinese regimes consistently pursuing centralization and state power.
yeah it really seems more like his personal fantasy than an actual prediction. though i guess this was before Xi Jinping came along and i don't know anything about Hu Jintao so who knows
You forgot the part where China constantly collapses.
He is clearly basing his prediction off of the Chinese history of a central power giving way to localism, but modern China is definitely not in that stage yet.
@@ennui9745 yes, there have been many devastating collapses, some lasted for decades. But every time a new ruling entity united the land, realm peace was restored, that lasted for centuries
The Russia trying to assert itself over Ukraine is even scarier now. If anyone sees this in the future this was posted the day after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 2022. If there is another Russian break-up it wil be due to the economic isolation it's facing.
its economic integration that led to the "break up" and economic isolation (real, including no diplomatic recognition, not this current fake isolation) of the 1920s that built/created the country.
I don’t think nearly enough comments are talking about TigerStar’s literal “It’s time for World War III!” Gotta love Germany coming out of nowhere like, “How DARE you start a World War without us!”
I solemnly swear that if he precisely predicted WW3 I will upload a hologram of me eating a broomstick to RUclips via my Google brain implant.
He really seems like he wants to see the return of the Ottoman Empire.
World War III: starts
Germany: time to join the be one of the main antagonists... again
7:27 And yeah, he predicted the Arab spring, I remember that it was stated in the book that the Middle East especially the region to the south of Turkey will destabilize during the second US-Russian cold war.
Well that went into unexpected fanfic territory.
6:25 I don't know, they seem like they might be itching closer to it
Naaah, the last thing China wants now is WW3
I give him props for predicting in that Russia will be a headache for the US. At the time everyone was focusing on the War on Terror and more concerned with Islamic terrorism. Even Obama 4 years after this book published and had 1 term as a president still said Russia is still not a concern in American's foreign policy. 10 years after that comment that was made, we are more focused on whats going on in with Russia and less so with Islamic terrorism despite the Taliban back in power.
So at 3:16 I had to look at the date of this video and yup.
Almost called it early enough to call that another prediction.
I thought, it was too specific, when he predicted when Slovenia and Croatia will join the Polish bloc. But then he mentioned the start date of WWIII (precise to the hour) and exactly how it is fought. This sounds more like an elaborate alternative history scenario rather than a prediction of the future.
Was Friedman dating Anne Appleblaum at the time or something? Polish one made no sense for anyone.
9:53 perkele my dreams (will likely not) come true.
You would dream about Russia attacking your country again (to retaliate for annexation of Karelia)? 😆
@@KateeAngel who said anything about war? I'll buy it this time.
Whatifalthist has said a lot of the same things about Turkey, actually.
He started pretty well on his predictions about Turkey but weng off the rails when he said that they were going to claim Crimea from Russia. Also for some reason he seems to think that the russians are already over even if they still exert control over their inmediate region.
@@perrypro1263 The Russians are absolutely a paper tiger though. Their economy is frail and I fear for what happens when Putin is no longer in power. They're a dying empire lashing out during their last breaths before they become a shell of their former selves.
As someone who also read the book, I'd like to add that Friedman prefaces his extremely specific dates and times and exact events of WWIII by saying it's a dramatic depiction of how it *could* go, based on geopolitical knowledge, technological predictions, and his own fancy. Perhaps he or his editors thought the section could use some more spice? News reports from 2016 said Sam Raimi would direct a film based on it, but that hasn't panned out.
4:20 me sitting here in June 2023 as Russia starts to fall apart...... dosent seem to unreasonable
Japan vs. US
Ottoman Empire vs. Poland
Germany vs. Poland
This guy really likes the classics
Turkey prediction: kind of reasonable guess since they're close to being a regional organised power
Poland prediction: *WTF*
Turkey: Knowing extended spending on a lot of Turkish military companies and Turkey's extended national arms production, i'd say somewhat plausible.
Poland: What in god went here?
This seemed at least theoretically reasonable until the random and weirdly specific Pearl Harbour 2 Orbital Boogaloo. The vision of Commonwealth 2.0 is admittedly alluring to me (as you can probably tell from my profile picture) but overall, I think I'll pass on this book.
Edit: I think that I should specify that I would not like to see Poland "directly controlling" Belarus or any other of our neighbours, as some imperialistic overlord, but a consensual close relationship (alliance, maybe union) would be nice.
I don't know what the author has with Pearl Harbor 2, but in an earlier book (in the 90's) he already said a US-Japan war was coming... in the next 20 years. Well, still waiting for it.
In book - Poland make a strong Trójmorze and be a superpower.
In real life - Poland becomes a Christian Kaczogród Dictature, and destroys his economy during a pandemic and leads to national protests through its actions
@@bar88888 Just some temporary technical difficulties. Things will surely get better. :)
Is what I tell myself to maintain my increasingly fragile sanity...
Ngl I find kind of hilarious the omission of the EU as a whole, even if even today (And in 2009) you can argue it's the third most important sort-of-country after the US and China...
In the book he did actually talk about the EU a lot it just wasn’t mentioned in the video. He said that the Union would face growing tension between member nations and a nationalist resurgence. He defiantly got that spot on. It remains to be seen though if the EU will collapse like he said it would.
It's not even a sort-of-country it's just "here are the people I despise but we would rater die from Russia than anybody in this treehouse"
@@BBP-OMO It does work like a country many times. And economically it's very connected and very much works like a country. Which is why the UK shot themselves in the foot with their foolishness. I would say it is a country, but not in the common/modern sense. It's a country in the way that the HRE was a country. Well, it basically IS the modern HRE.
@@jach99 i have to disagree, to put it simply if the EU tried saying we are 1 nation half the union would leave then and there
@@BBP-OMO nation ≠ country . We are not one nation, but the EU itself is very much a grey area whether or not it is a country. It has its own debt for example but currently doesn't raise it's own taxes(tho it has legal basis to do so). It also has the ability to pass laws which have primacy over national laws. It doesn't have an army, but does have some limited ability to use member state troops. It's not fully a country but it's not any less of a country than say the US before the current Constitution. In some areas the EU does have jurisdiction over the member states, say in matters relating to trade as well as some regulations. So you can't really say it is a country nor can you it's definitely not.
If you like Friedman, you will love Zeihan. He published a quite similar book a year ago where he predicted a war between Germany and Russia, right before both powers would divide Poland among them. (I mean, if he had published that book 100 years ago, I'd be impressed.) Afterwards most parts of the world will die down as the U.S. becomes more isolationist and nobody can import grain any longer. Both, Friedman and Zeihan, work for Stratfor. I don't know what to make of them. They know something about history and about the reasons why powers of the past might be powers of the future. (It is surely no coincidence that the Ottoman Empire at its height looked eerily similar to the Eastern Roman Empire at its height... same geographical center, same neighbourhood, similar expansion patterns etc.) But apart from that, there is a lot of stuff which is either way too specific (as the date for WWIII with Friedman) or way too overblown. I think that their anti-Russian, anti-China, anti-German bias shows (especially their disdain for China).
Yea, i've read some Zeihan too. He's incrediably American bias, but way too anti-China (despite China being being a great power throughout all of history). But I do like how he shows his methodogy atleast, focusing heavily on things such self sufficiency(food and energy), demograpics and deglobalisation. I personally think we're gonna be somewhere between a China collapsing Zeihen prediction and the scared "the future is China" type crowds. I see China slowing down in coming decades but still being a strong force with a large sphere of influence. I personally think it could overtake America (not sure), but America will still be a great power with large influence if it doesn't tear itself apart. Zeihan I think will be correct in his assertion that we're gonna see a more deglobalised world, with diffrent spheres of regions with the main power focusing mostly on their spheres of influence. But not to the extreme he says.
@@dogetaxes8893 The thing with Zeihan is that he always over-exaggerates bad things and undersells good things. He used to say stuff like there was near to zero contribution from sustainable energies to German energy production, which is untrue with numbers as high as 50 % (with fluctuations, of course). There are many more instances in which he just absurdly catastrophizes moderate challenges or neglects to see progresses such as the already achieved energy transition progress.
George Friedman...Gordon Freeman...oh my god, Turkey started the 7 Hour War! It wasn't the Combine, it was the Ottomans!
Ceddin deden ear rape
You guys are laughing now, but just wait until November 24, 2050 at 5:30 PM, then we’ll see who’s laughing
I’d argue in the pre-2020 stuff, the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh War falls into the, Turkey asserting itself as a regional power prediction. And Trump’s election falls into the “US is still a teenager willing to take risks” argument he makes a few times. Trump’s policies however ended up contradicting most of his predictions…
The prediction of a Polish-led military-economic bloc actually came true, kinda. It's called the Visegrad Group of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia. This group has been extremely prominent in providing military aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia. Then there's a new emerging Polish-led bloc encompassing more countries in eastern Europe called the Three Seas Initiative that links central and eastern European countries together from the Baltics to the Black Sean and Adriatic (hence the name). Aside from Ukraine and Belarus its membership is nearly identical to the map of the Polish-led org shown at the end of this video.
As for Turkey they are expanding economically, culturally and militarily into neighbouring countries at this stage. Azerbaijan is effectively now a mere Turkish proxy/satellite state fighting against Armenia. Bosnia is to some extent now part of the Turkish sphere. And Ukraine's reliance on Turkish military equipment, particularly drones, has brought it closer to Ankara.
Of course other predictions are laughably wrong, and would have been known to be wrong even in 2009. There is zero chance of Japan rising again to great power status, let alone becoming a superpower. Its population decline is worse than many people think, to the point by the 2100 it will have a population, and economy, roughly half of what it is today.
That is unless they bite the bullet and open up its borders to mass immigration like what the West was forced to do after WWII. If Japan were to allow for fairly unrestricted immigration to Japan (only requirement for permanent residency/citizenship is knowledge of the language) then they could conceivably become a rising power again. But they won't, instead placing their faith in robotics...... Such a sad end to a fascinating nation.
> Hungary and Slovakia
> Extremely prominent in providing military aid to Ukraine
@@mlc4495Nikkei-225 at all time highs. Semiconductors returning to Japan. Rapidus building 2nm factory. Toyota reaches record market share and is the most profitable automaker.
The paradigm shift is happening in real time from China to Japan.
10:26 i think that is as literal as it sounds
i think he meant the USA literally making cash off of space, like thru moon trips or something
I thought I was the only one who read this book. Always thought it was a bit wacky starting with the Poland stuff. From there it just is a lot of future guessing.
Kinda just seems like this is a dude who has 0 understanding of international relations, geopolitics, politics, economics, or socio-cultural dynamics... Kinda seems like a cheesy fanfic
And apparently he founded Stratfor and worked as a geopolitical forecaster and a strategist on international affairs lmao
@@hx5525 that's so sad, hahaha
He doesn’t really have that excuse as a political scientist. He is clearly completely blinded by ideology to the point where he wrote edgy 14 year old level fanfic.
@@XMysticHerox it's soooo cringey it goes *beyond* ideology, lmao 🤣
14:02 "But the United States will pull a Woodrow Wilson" Sorry what?
Poland and Germany are like Batman and Joker. There's no way they will be in one block, even when their biggest trade partner China is in one camp with Poland and US :D
*In a Texan accent;* "Let's go"
15:34
"Mexicans??"
lol Mexico has always been a kleptocracy, what was this guy on?
The second half feels like it belongs in a science fiction novel. Almost like Friedman was working on two separate manuscripts and the soft files somehow blended together.
Korea unifying before 2030 is something that just doesn't make any sense at all, like idk how he thinks that's possible it costs so much money for south korea