The World in 2050: Characteristics of New Rising Powers
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- Опубликовано: 4 май 2024
- Could technological advancements be the key to achieving geopolitical power? Dr. George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Geopolitical Futures, contributes his knowledge in a session titled "The World in 2050: Characteristics of New Rising Powers."
#WGS2022
#WorldGovSummit
#Expo2020Dubai
#Technology
#TechnologicalAdvancements
#Geopolitics
#GeopoliticalPower
Pardon me to correct a fact. The Mobile phone was not discovered by US but by Russians. Leonid Ivanovich Kupriyanovich started research in 1955 and in 1957 he had created a device to work within a 30 km range. The first mobile phone is the "Altai" phone and is the size of todays handphone. It went on sale in 1963, 10 years ahead of Motorola. It is due to the cold war that Russian scientific achievements were not reported in the western media.
I found Russia to be highly developed nation, one can see technology in use everywhere, I travelled in their high speed trains and did not find mobile signal dropping for any moment. I could travel in a boat which was modified version of the hovercraft in St. Petersburg.
@@theexposer9483 Then why can't they defeat Ukraine.
@@alphasuperior100 I have travelled Russia few years ago and these are my observations hence these are facts. And let me add, I have found Russians to be most friendly and helping people. As far as they not defeating Ukraine, I don’t know what is the strategy they are following but one thing is certain they have brought most of Europe on knees . Let winter come Europe will freeze. In the human history nobody has won a war against Russia.
Yeah right. I been in Russia. Third world country. They don’t have phone signals even now.
@@tomgk1513 Ha Ha.
We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. This CPI report is a colossal failure. To bring the housing market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyper-inflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
@@matthewhuo6543 Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
@@philimonleo6195 Good question. There's no shortcut to getting rich, but there are smart ways to go it.
@@philimonleo6195 I engage in diversifying various investments through proper planning and management of a good Investment Professional and so far have earned many returns (the amount is confidential).
Greetings to people from USA, Turkey and Japan from Poland 🇹🇷🇯🇵🇵🇱🇺🇸
George doesn't make predictions, he simply conveys the plans of his friends in the uppity up circles
An example of when a person's inflated opinion shows his circle of confidence is bigger than his circle of knowledge.
He certainly speaks with great authority on subjects on which he is not that well-informed…
A very harsh and unkind assessment. Which i would respectfully. Disagree with ...sorry ..he has his points well constructed. .
At least he is smarter than you.
@@jason0870 it takes more than intelligence to get that platform. Politics is more important.
As AFRICANS we see Mr Fredman as a man who acts the terrific Hollywood scenario's just like Clint Eastwoods....
If things go wrong for you, and you need someone to cheer you up, regardless of the truth, this is the guy for you.
aww youre chinese. its ok.
He predicted the Ukraine war
@Krz Heph Yes, he predicted the Ukraine war on Feb-23, 2022. As far as I know, Japan, S.Korea, and Taiwan are vassal states of the USA. Poland shouts a lot and suffers a lot. Turkey is as cunning as a fox -- yes, Turkey has the hidden ambition of re-establishing Constantinople as the world's capital and ruled by Sharia while it tries to be a member of the EU for 20+ years! This gentleman (who looks like President Bush, Jr) is an admirer of Churchill, the PM who dragged the UK to destruction in WW II. He forgot to mention India. I guess he believes India is still a part of the UK. We will see five years from today where these countries go! Fifty years from now, this gentleman will not be on this planet. Hence he can say anything. 😄
@@krzheph7373 That's not too hard.
@@gheetatlee9669 rear view is always not "too hard" - show me one person who predicted it on record 7 - 8 years ago. Dang the CIA /NSA/FBI ..infact NOONE was predicting it Feb 23rd 2022 and that with 100 K Russian troops on the border!
The real problem is not rising powers in a nation sense. It's a combination of unelected bureaucrats holding total power over several nation states. It's individuals and corporations amassing enough power to threaten host nations
@Tarziu Armanado-Liviu
Well of course God's peace to you as well. However that has nothing to do with my post as to the problem of unelected bureaucrats and even worse businesses trying to tell free people how to act and what to say.
@Tarziu Armanado-Liviu you said a lot there. Praying for you too. What country are you in?
I’m gonna use the past to predict the future and say that Friedman is going to be wrong on most, if not all, of his predictions. His early 90s book ‘The Coming War with Japan’ comes to mind.
He’s made a nice income on bullshooting . . .
Here, here…
@@trekpac2 The expression is “Hear, hear!”.
His book next 100 years predicted war in Ukraine.
@@maciejpopawski3025 No, it predicted a new Cold War with Russia. He seems to be at least somewhat, if not completely, right about that, but it’s certainly not playing out like he expected and it’s not guaranteed that Russia will collapse. He also constantly insists that China will collapse and Japan and America will go to war again and he has yet to be right on that.
He got that right when he said that humans are not nice creatures. They are impacting on themselves and on each other and the earth in a huge way.
Well yes, that seems to be the only bit that he got right.
How this man has built such a career on never ever being right it's just astonishing
So much hatred that just shows to me that this man may bring good points to the table
@@chrislloyd261 by ur logic, anybody who brings forth stupidity and is rubbished...brought good points. What kind of sense do ppl hav when they say that
Raising good points get you hate and raising bad points get you praise love ?? Lol i never new that . He basically bashed everyone and praised US and US dollar lol
People in #Iran are risking their lives in the streets.
They are tired of dictatorship and cruelty.
Please be their voice.
We thank you all for standing next to us.
Thankyou for sharing our stories and talking about us.
#mahsaamini
#Oplran
#مهسا_امینی
Raziyeh
Western and America doest have interest of Iranian women rights …
They don’t care …
They just want to mess and weak Iran economy- wake up
you are naive lady.
Isn't sounding convincing.
Rouble has already gone back to pre-war levels this he missed.
He just sees a re-emergence of western hegimony.
And is narrating today's event to suit his own thoughts and desire.
yes, I agree with you. the fact that young people in the US should owe money to the US government to study in universities and the rising poverty in the US is neglected in his speech. Every country is surviving today, not only weakening countries that he mentioned before
@forbenefitofworld Well, the country who is selling the product can demand to be paid in roubles
Meanwhile, Russian banks make record profits under sanctions, the US is going into hyperinflation, and the war on fossil fuels is about to end in global starvation......
Watching this talk 3 month later , I can tell his predictive power is not convincing at all , today it was announced that Germany struggling to manufacture toilet paper. US in technical recession and Russia did not even started to respond on sanctions. Fools from euro commission destroying their own economy like it is most important goal of their life. That is what country with 1% of work economy can do to the world …
It's called wishful thinking.
Westerners should stick to topics they understand, like the Kardashians
To solve security issues is to remove technology from weapons, then remove all weapons. Magic!
This man is simplifying things more than allowed
For the masses you are not one of them apparently do not hold him in contempt
Allowed by whom?
Use something longer than three syllables, and you lose me.
He got 20 minutes. For depth, read his books.
I'm very surprised that Mr.Friedman didn't mention India at all. India is the fastest growing economy in the world now.India has a large number of younger population . Many economists predict India will be the 3rd or the 2nd largest economy in the World by 2050. India liberalized it's economy in 1990, and ever since it's economy is on the rise . Given the constraints of a democratic set up, India is moving forward some what slowly but steadily.
India also develops their own jet fighters.
Read his book. He says India has no cultural influence BECAUSE of the landlocked area between Himalaya mountains and Kashmir mountains. He says turkey in on the middle of the earth. You can go with one foot to Europe middle East Kaukasus Mediterranean. 🇹🇷❤️🇯🇵
You have a very valid point.
Indians all are leaving india to foreigners countries due to messed inside the country
@@BisseleWixxele I'm sure he, like most others realize that cultural influences have come about mainly through invasions and colonization. So India would not really fit the 'cultural influence ' bill.
Go George!
Parachuting this arch realist into a 'World Government' conference clearly shows that someone has a diabolical sence of fun.
Well done to whomever is responsible.
if take in account George's age, 40 years is the right time frame to make any predictions for money.
I dont get it what do you mean? Please explain
@@timeeternal5756 with joy. In 40 years, he most likely won't be alive. so there will be no one to complain to.
"Sense".
Sir, the ultimate aim and job of the technology should be to give safety, security, livelyhood, health, peace and prosperity to the all living beings particularly the human beings. And no wars etc.Thank you.
I don't see much in his speech apart from praising the US and demeaning other great nations
Praising a failing USA power, while tactically insulting other rich powers. Thats exactly what that comedian egomaniac did in that podium!
Not praising just stating the obvious.The most important scientific discovery was ignorance.When you found out you were wrong and what you did after was the key moment you moved ahead.The world is akin to the revenge of geography .It’s understandable what Russia is doing and China trying to play the monopoly game.If China fails we loose cheap products cost of living up .No one wants China to fail but like India no trickle down economic wealth .turkey and Japan are the best friends
He counsels to look far back into the future, but he doesn't look back far enough himself! If he did, he'd see that from year 0 to 1800AD that China and India were always the dominant economies in the world.
Yes they were, and the countries exploited by the west are well and truly economically emerging.
Ya... Looking back at a small time in history he predicts the mightiness of USA.... Looking back for centuries we can predict the mighty powers India and China will take back their position as the most powerful nations of the future........
Rome surpassed both
@@paulbadics3500 In what way?
@@paulbadics3500 Roman emperor vespasian banned trade with India because of high trade deficit
This gentleman sounds like he had a glass of wine to many .
Absolutely....he sounds like a demon drunk on human blood and is sanity shud be questioned.
he's a genius
I really enjoyed this. I like a good stand up comedy from time to time.
😂 LIES AND PROPOGANDA AND TAKING CREDIT OF SOMEBODY ELSE'S.
Buying/capturing scientists from Nazi Germany,ussr and other countries and taking credits
Past, present, and future are all we have to live with. They are all important.
No. All you have is the present, right now.
ruclips.net/video/gcj8xN2UDKc/видео.html
Well no offense to anyone but Japan is aging rapidly and its economy is more or less stagnant from a long time, i don't know about Poland, but turkey too is suffering from a bad economic crisis. I don't understand why he picked these countries. He didn't even provide his reasoning.
I would say emerging superpowers are mostly in South-Asia, SE-Asia and Africa
Yes. Indonesia a secular nation with majority of moderate Muslims has the quality and quantity of people, the economy and the anti colonial mindset to withstand China's influence.
Africa will *never* produce a superpower. Africa has the resources but it does *not* have the *people*.
@@jeremiahliang8273 What's the average IQ of Indonesia?
@@bigtex1721 Corruption is *not* the only thing choking Africa. Their eye queue is very low. The U.S is becoming like these regions by mass importing Africans and Latinos the U.S will certainly *not* be a major player in the future.
@@lucasgrey9794 78.5...ranked 130th
I'd like to see this guy restating his speech after discovering that Europe is gripping real tight if Russia closes the Gas-tap ahahah!
You have to be from Germany or so... Haha...
Poland is secured and do not care about russia and their gas. They dirty business brtween russia and germany. Next faze pact ribbentrop-molotov kollapsing on your own eyes..
Aaa yeyyy... Haha
@@ajemgruut3471 No, I am not from Germany or any other Decadent Continental European Country, yeyyy!!!
😅🤣😂
That'd hurt your Russian masters more than it'd hurt Europe, dude
@@David-ni5hj I don't live in Decadent Russia either yeyyy!
Mr. Freedman, I am surprised you see no role for INDIA in the new emerging world.
What he's pointing out is actually public money invariably through the defence route has been a major contributor to technology development and product development. When there are no restrictive patent regimes. ...
not quite, it was the private sector that developed products. No private sector goes the way of the USSR
I believe that non adhesive binding like Velcro was invented for space craft.
@@carylhalfwassen8555 duct tape, remember the apolo space craft movie, they used duct tape to fix it.
World In 2050 in one word - hell
That was great discussion for someone who wants to learn new things. 🇧🇩
George Freeman is great ------ in his own mind.
This gentleman talks about a different USA than what I see. I see a huge decline of wealth and virtual economic growth. The gdp rises but the loans stagnates for decades. Higher energy prices will do the rest and can‘t be avoided. The us killed the dollar and will soon understand that companies won’t support sanctions any longer. The horrible geopolitical situation of the us in the next 50 years will kill its industry due the lack of ressources for the transformation. The us has no control over media. Not even in their own country and became a divided nation with huge ideological and armed conflicts. Do not overestimate the possibilities of the USA. It will bury itself because it is the politics of minds like Friedman who killed the future of america in the last 30 years by their own hands.
A lot of that apparent weakness is self inflicted. Just the reaction to COVID, the election of Biden, and the war on the fossil fuel industry has hobbled the US and many other western nation's economies.
He says America will keep frightning the world with new weapons to "lead" everybody with or without their permission. Its the most clear statment an old imperialist power could do without a shadow of shame...
I don’t think so
No way. They control media absolutely. You see what the “elites” want you to see. Propaganda. Politicians are puppets. What is happening now In the US is on purpose. They know what they are doing. The people in Control are professional liars. They understand economics, and the understand that they are destroying the US dollar. The question is, why? Likely to introduce a new digital or world currency.
However, just to be clear, I agree with you. The US is in a terrible spot. The US is on a path of decline. The only difference is, I believe they know what they are doing.
He must have blinkers on his still taking about Winston Churchill you can't teach your children for yesterday's world. Peace to the world 🌎 ✨ 🙏
Is self evident that public investment (in USA), has been the main engine of technology revolution. Without taxes and military dominance of the USA, there were not non of this advances possible.
Untrue
Without the private sector, nothing happens. There is no public application.
The US will continue to dominate the world.
It is very interesting to lessen George Friedman.
There's a point I often see going missing about these future projections. (Which is inherent in looking at the past to predict the range of future outcomes.)
The issue:
Taking the rate of advance for a constant.
Aka ignoring engineering (Macrotechnology) Point of Diminishing returns.
Conclusion:
It takes far more effort to improve upon today's macrotechnology *by the same margins*. This changes power dynamics between leading vs lagging countries to one of but marginal advantages.
The move from 18th-19th century was littered with what can be described as the Pareto principle of macro technological advances.
Where small advances brought about a huge improvement. > These "sudden" advances allowed the massive, "overnight" differences in power between nations. These shifting power dynamics one could argue were then leveraged by the adopters of the technology to subjugate the not-yet adopters of said technologies.
The move from horses to engines is a marvellous advance, metrics wise. It brought about everything from the Eiffel tower to suspension bridges to submarines etc. But we haven't yet seen another "horses to engines" moment happening between today's macrotechnology and those of yesteryears.
Big leaps in technology from 1950 to today are almost all confined to the realm of the very small. We've got computers perhaps x1000 times faster, but we can't build tunnels, dams or bridges or skyscrapers x1000 faster or cheaper or bigger.
You hit physical constraints = these constraints permit lagging nations to catch up, giving leading nations but marignal advantages. Marginal advantages which could, case dependantly, be compensated by other means.
You want examples? Look at the "infrastrcture lag" of certain nations/continents. It's a lot easier (cheaper, doable & scalable) for africans and middleeasterns to have cellphones than bullet trains and access to energy.
You want more obvious examples? Different sectors still remain uber expensive to the average, working class.
You are holding a device in your pocket which just a few decades ago would cost similar to a luxury car or small apartment. You can buy a brand new phone (with marginal difference between that and a flagship) for 1/10ths of your wage, but you can't buy a brand new car today for less than it cost back then, nor can your city rebuild a stadium or restore a building for 1/100th of the cost.
That’s DM “direct marketing” for U.S services in the region by attacking in indirect way to other countries, like Russia and China.
Anyone can talk and pretend he or she know more than others, but at least if he can show some facts and figures from independents resources, and be more realistic without any obvious bias he is.
He is a good marketer 👍
BS. The war in Ukraine proves everything he says.
Dollars sales person.
美元在美国以外流通的时候，美国是赢家。
美元回流到美国时候，美国就是韭菜
@@dawuyong2218 他们从感知中创造了价值，而不是实际价值。
The people who did not discover even a Panadol
This was not a very informative presentation for me. It does not bring out that the US has orchestrated many of the changes that took place, from the military funding more than 1/3rd of research for 40 years following WWII, to deflating the Japanese economy in the latter 80s by forcing Japan to dramatically adjust its currency and collapse its credit system (during which period I was working for the government in Japan).
The instability in the Middle East was due to foreign military action in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and so on. And now with Russia, pushing Nato into 15 more countries has caused great instability in Russia/Ukraine.
Furthermore, using GDP as a measure, Korea’s economy might be bigger than Russia's but if one uses purchasing power parity as the IMF and the World Bank do, Russia’s economy is larger than that of Germany. And China’s economy is already maybe 1/3rd larger than that of the US.
I didn’t take much away from this presentation.
You are not alone in your conclusions.
Well, looking no the future needs the Almighty to agree with our needs. What I admire in Dr. George Friedman´s presentation is, to my understanding, that besides the geopolitical play ofthe big players, like the war in Ukraine, there is still room for the smaller but smart-enough countries to have their say like Israel, in the Middle East as well as countries like Hungary not supplying weapons, to fuel the conflict. Thank you so much and ask God to mediate between the fools leading the world to Armageddon. Yours respectfully, Paul.67, retired teacher.
The almighty is controlling everything. We are just puppets.
Khazarian story for Khazarians
@@krzheph7373 The Puppets???
Ten Frid ... sa zwykli gangsterzy miedzynarodowi ... Ktorzy rozpetuja wojny dla pieniedzy .stop wojnie!!!@
When George started constantly pacing & going off the mics about 2/3 through his talk I felt like I was watching an Ozzy Osbourne performance.
This guy can't even see 2021 clearly let alone 2050.
Why is he talking as the war in Ukraine is already finished and Russia lost? We see that this war goes in the second phase and it appears that it goes according to plan.
Being Polish and hearing that my country is destined to be some kind of superpower is very enticing, there are some big but(t)s that are in the way (at least in my opinion):
-rapidly aging population since the late 90's due to many factors, but mostly housing crisis, mass exodus of qualified workforce to western EU after accession and rising costs of living. You're not planning to have children when living in a 2 room rented apartment with rent eating about 1/2 of your salary. This has been mitigated somewhat by the recent influx of Ukrainian refugees, part of which will probably make it their new home for life here. But it is no long-term solution, only a one-time boost.
-while having educated workforce , relatively low costs of labor, reasonable work efficiency, efficiency is very low du to a number of factors, some of which are below.
-there is practically no hi-tech industry owned by national (polish) capital. Car industry, advanced machinery, telecommunications etc. is being owned by foreign capital due to western investments or pre 1989 polish industry being sold off for pennies or collapsed. Most of the profits of high-tech, high-profit industry are siphoned out from the country.
-even sectors as basic as retail groceries chains (Biedronka, LIDL, Lewiatan etc) are dominated by foreign ownership. So when buying tomatoes for your tomorrow breakfast you support the Portuguese, not local companies.
-healthcare and education systems are in an abysmal state, health sector nearly collapsed during the pandemic due to 30 yeas of very poorly planned and even worse executed reforms. Mean age of nurses is above 50 ears (sic!). Partially because younger medical staff fled to the west (where you can earn 4x times more for doing 2/3 of work done here), partially well... there are very few incentives to work in healthcare, even less in education. Young teacher earns minimum wage, he can earn more working as a cashier.
And many, many more reasons, why I can hardly see us as a superpower.
Poland is no means perfect, even more so is not a bad place, has many, many good sides, it should strive for greatness. But a superpower? I highly doubt it. Plus our neighbors (most of which I like) sometimes do not help. Germany for instance, with forcing Nord Stream, fierce opposition to Baltic Pipe, openly hindering our efforts to go nuclear, and all the propaganda against Vistula Lagoon canal. While we would be the ones to bear most the financial weight and risk of being a military shield to CE Europe. Its a difficult task.
I red a bit of economic history of countries that became an economical powers and everywhere it was just like that. Why Polish nurses work in Germany, because they had enough of theirs own nurses?
BTW. Vistula lagoon canal is a very cheap and surprisingly useful "Miś" investment in comparison of what was done in other countries.
We don't even know what 2023 looks like and this guy predicting 2050. He is ahead of his time, ahead of his mind, ahead of himself.
🤣🤣🙄🙄🙄
No he dont predict noting he order USA to make new crimes and we all have to stop Friedman!
You clearly missed his points
A good forecaster would give different scenarios along with the probabilities. He acts like a fortune teller instead.
Are you from Russia or China? He is not the only expert who is making these predictions.
Oh so he’s a bad forecaster? That’s what you’re saying. What authority figure are you again?
It’s a plan
He is super pro american in the Past present And future
@@hovsepkrim2781 he is great. Just saying he is really pro america
Friedman's confidence in green pieces of IOU is astounding.
The talk is not about the Dollar?
Exactly, and to say America didn’t know it had this power via the US dollar is wrong, the US has been using sanctions via its Dollar for decades which has devalued the dollar, and many countries can just switch away anytime which is kind of starting to happen.
Has someone or the World produced a better alternative?
@@richardacevedo280 I think countries are realising that the new Russian model maybe better. Backed by real commodities, those pieces of paper actually worth something.
@@richardacevedo280 Yes. The gold standard.
I would like to hear from him again by the end of this year.
The best part of this lecture is the comments. It is hilarious. I could not stop laughing. Thank you Dr. George Friedman for making us so happy.
This is funnier than Biden Zelenski and Boris combined
Rockefeller Blood
He looks and sounds like George Bush.
@@bobbylee7801 yes
Easy to predict 2050 for somebody who probably won't live to see that year and face any embarrassment :))) The number of views is a measure of credibility.
His version of the history of the mobile phone is partially fantasy. Yes, the US military innovated a lot of the technologies applied in mobile and online devices. But Apple and iPhone came much later and Nokia from Finland was market leader with an almost 35% share of world market, when Apple didn‘t have a mobile phone yet.
Steve Jobs is vastly overrated and what he states is correct. No smart phone without pre existing military applications. Your version is nice spin but no based on historical reality
People conflate the iPhone with early cellphones, just because it is ubiquitous today. Apple was a late comer to the cellphone business, as you pointed out, but their innovation was a phone that did much more than just communicate. Of course, there were already cellphones that could handle text, etc., but Apple really made the smartphone a thing. My guess is that people like George use the iPhone as an example just because everyone knows what one is, and it is for most people the stereotypical cellular device.
That's what he is "Fantasyst"
I didn't hear him credit Apple with the creation of the cell phone, but the US military. The key take away wasn't Apple, but that civilian technology came/comes from the military. He further clarified that you need someone (in this case the US military) with an identified need and sufficient funding to address it. He could have also used NASA and point out the development of the ballpoint pen, heart monitoring equipment, and other technologies. The other critical point was that the giving of the technology to the private sector.
I fail to see where Nokia (a truly great company, undone by a CEO more loyal to Microsoft than Nokia) was relevant to the conversation.
He is indeed a great liar, not worth listening , biased creature.
Incredible how such a professionist can go round selling so much rubbish...and how much did he got paid for that rubbish...
Martin Cooper, byname Marty Cooper, (born December 26, 1928, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.), American engineer who led the team that in 1972-73 built the first mobile cell phone and made the first cell phone call. He is widely regarded as the father of the cellular phone.
This is what happens when you oversimplify everything. The invention of digital camera, like all of the other things, was inevitable, it just happened to happen in the military industrial complex because that was the place where it was most needed and where the most power was concentrated. When you have big need and big power things just happen. He oversimplified many other things including the involvement of that same military industrial complex in actually creating all the above conflicts around the world.
he was trying to tell the audience members, that they too can intentionally release certain technologies in order to steer the direction in which their society is moving in.
@@tobyiy If so, then he failed to prove the intentionality
Military’s also made GPS, Phones, Radios, microwave, internet, computers, satellites, water purification tablets ECT
And will make massive breakthroughs in AI, AR, VR, biological engineering, artificial limbs ECT
The military can make these breakthroughs because they can take massive risks that the private sector can’t take, because they need to make profits.
Most of the money in western countries military budgets goes into researching and developing new technologies.
The private sector is good at making existing technologies far more efficient, but is not good at creating new technologies.
@@avashurov I mean he was able to predict 10-20 years ahead and most of it came true. This is a field that exists since 70 years and is very successful in explaining past and future trends.
It combines all knowledge from geography, history, economy, sociology, politics and military into one narrative.
If you want an indepth explanation, you have to read the book and not just watch a RUclips video.
No! Need alone is not enough. Do you know human history? There was always a need for more food and energy, nothing happened!
I think you oversimplify too much. I don't think you know anything about the subject.
What you say is if there is a need, it will eventually happen given enough time. That can be true. If you give an infinite amount of time and if there is a need, it will probably happen. But that isn't the question. The question is what is necessary for something to happen.
First, there must be a structure that focuses on the need.
Second, there must be enough resources. A company will never invest in something if the risk of failure is too high.
The military doesn't need to make a profit, hence it can do what companies can't. It can invests billions of dollar even if the risk of failures is high.
There are other ways to mitigate the risk. For example, patents, subsidies or government investments.
Türkeye will be Europe nr 1 super power in 20 years
He’s reminding me of a series from History channel, ‘Tactical to Practical’. It was an amazing series btw.
You're absolutely right , from historical point...the further you look behind further you can see ahead....
Participation in decision making...
The perfect tIme for such a conversation ...
How fortunate for geopolitics
With what's going on in the world
I don't care about what experts got to say about geopolitics
Because geopolitics, international relations changes every decade
Some of the things he said made sense but frankly he seemed like a US/Western stooge more than anything . 20 minutes wasted .
Turkiye is already making tremendous gains in arm industries
I definitelly agree with Poland. As Czech I even hope Poland will take lead in EU which I'm predicting for several years to happen in next 30 years. Now with what is happening dureing this war I expect it to happen even sooner. I'm glad that we have been recently close to Poland and especially proud of visegrad4 which unfortunatelly with our current government is not as stong as it used to be. I really hope for Poland to become superpower at least in Europe and replace Germany. Poles are rationally thinking people, pragmatic, cristian with values and pro family. I was visiting Poland very often past 15 years and I really see huge and fast improvements in Poland. Me as Czech will gladly follow Poles as leading european country.
Visegrad 4 is more than just a political organisation, it became the part of our identity in all four countries. I think Friedman should include all of us in his analysis as a block.
BTW. Just look how alive is r/2visegrad4u humorous or even idiotic subreddit, where not only usual mockery, shit storms and completely idiotic posts, usual for such a groups, but also designs of Visegradian flags, discussions where should be the capital, or something like Visegradian patriotism appears, even if the central figure is Krtek/Krecik. Such kind of the very low level culture exchange, proofs that Visegrad is the important concept to all of us.
@@Pandzikizlasu80 You are right. I believe that V4 has very big support among people of our countries. I hope politicians will not kill this project.
Poland will be nukes by the West and blamed it on Russia. So yeah, poland will be the lamp.
Poles leading the Germans and especially the French!
You're in dreamland my friend
Keep wondering
Yeah poles are also very good in stealing German cars. In germany the say Heute stolen , morgen ins Polen.
Well, 6 months down the line, his prediction and expectations have been factually debunked.
I want to begin with a quote from Winston Churchill “Wheres the Brandy! And come on cook I want another meat Pie!”
ahahaha
Churchill took a great empire like Britain and turned it into America's b!tch. Why anyone still quotes that drunk warmonger is beyond me.
Lol
I hope the US could focus on the education of its people as much as it can focus on its army and corporations.
Great description many things a man like me was thinking other way round
In 2010 5.2 GHz was the top speed of processors by 2050 if engineers find a way to keep up with Moore's law and if processor speed actually develops every 24 months by 2050 we can get a chip capable of running at 5,452,595 gigahertz or nearly 5.5 petahertz.
Source: Realme Community
It is not a speed
Jensen Huang doubling the Moore's law of processor transistor number using AI 😂
Or quantum computers. Maybe something completely new might come along.
The problem with Morre's law, and it is a rather big one, is how you cool a machine capable of this kind of processing power. I think we are at, or near, the practical limit of what we can do with small-scale computational devices barring a complete revolution in technology. A smartphone is not a Playstation 5, nor is any smartphone in the impending future going to be capable of that kind of processing power. There is only so much you can do with miniaturization. To go further than this requires more space for cooling systems. More cooling systems require more energy. More energy means more space in which a large battery needs to be stored. Computers in general may become more powerful, but this will apply to traditional desktops more than personal devices that can be carried around. I predict that smartphone tech will plateau very soon, and that any innovations will be in quality of life improvements rather than raw processing power.
Think of all the wonderful inventions that have been made by the US defence department that are still deemed classified.
Guess just think about how much free energy and technology in genetics that could benefit mankind has been squandered by satanic Freemason military leaders. War Is For Fools they will find their part in the Lake of Fire. Hell is not the Lake of Fire it's prison for a thousand years and it's coming
Are they many? I mean one of the most critical they opened to everyone for free (GPS)
@@anteeko invent by an African woman named Gladys and internet too by a biafran name Phillips emeagwali for the U.S.A army's.
Anti gravity would hit the spot right about now.
Antigravity TR3B
If India want to raise to superpower status, it has to overhaul it's higher education and promote innovations. Today we are way behind in that aspect.
This is not our home 🌎
🙏🏻is only temporary place for all of US why worry about anything ✌️🌿🌿🌿Believe in Jesus only 🙏🏻⤴️❤️
Lesson of the lecture: Make war and advance technology.
China is on its way to becoming a technological superpower, experiencing the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history. Innovation is at the top of the country's priority list. In 2017, China's president Xi Jinping outlined his vision for China becoming a global science and innovation leader by 2050.
Source: HDI Global SE
Is there is any technology for making peace as to celebrate peace victory
Let's wait and see but for me what he said seems to be incorrect especially US economic growth, we all know it's going down but he says going up.
America's economic path is completely unsustainable, and the imbalances in its systems become worse by the year. The strength of the petrodollar system is directly proportional to how strong the U.S. military is compared with its rivals in enforcing that system. To be sure, the U.S. does have the largest and most advanced military in the world, but not by as great of a degree as it did thirty years ago.
That America has lasted as long as it has under the current system is testament to its inherent geopolitical strengths, but reality catches up with everyone sooner or later no matter how strong they are. The Soviet Union discovered this in a most humiliating fashion.
Haha! Did he really say that sanctions crushed Russia (rather than Europe)??? Seriously?
This is amazing 🌏🙏
According to Business Insider, space tourism could be viable in 2050, but probably only for the very wealthy.
[On tourism for the middle and poor classes, research and find some possibilities in another department]
In my opinion, the biggest issue that Mr. Friedmann doesn't take into the discussion is the problem of demographic development in the world. Therefore, all analyses of Mr. Friedmann you can take with reserve. By Mr. Friedmann, everything is more important than the people, technology. Industries, space war, ...... but on the example of Afghanistan, we have seen that the effect of the human element is most important. Taliban have this demographic reserve of boys, each family has from three to five boys, when the oldest is fallen on the field there is a second or the third to take a gun and continue to fight. When NATO or US soldiers fall on the field, there is just a sister or girlfriend waiting for them at home. Ukraine is a country with 44 million people At this moment there are about 500,000 people in the army which is something like 1.1% of the population?! The Winner in this war will be the side that will be capable to make massive mobilization if the Russians take that step for a quote of time they will have 10,000,000 soldiers if Ukraine will have 3,000,000 - but all these regimes are afraid of massive mobilization because there is just one boy in a house in vast majority of Russian and Ukrainian homes.
Was too early to write of russia
Agree 100%. Demographics is a key element to mobilization
whoever controls the energy controls all.
Good point! I think that's true also in China and the US and probably all of Europe.
Ne vode se ratovi više sa sabljama moj Jusufe da je bitno imaš li 5 miljuna vojnika ili 500 tisuca 🙂
Well, predicting future by looking at the past is of course a popular way to do it. The assumption of this approach is that the future environment is similar to the past. It is quite obvious that the environment today is different from what US enjoyed in 20 century. The gap in technology between US and China or India or any other developing nation in 20th century was so huge that it was almost impossible for those nations to dream about what US had. Today it is not the case. There is no such a technological gap, there wasn’t any significant scientific discoveries in the last 50years (for example nuke or microelectronics) that helped US to be at the top. All existing technologies have been adopted and mastered by all major nations. US is still at the frontier of the technological innovations but US has been loosing its leading position in many important areas - hypersonic is just one of the examples. US has no unique breakthrough technology (and won’t be able to get it in modern world) that will help them get ahead as much as they used to be in 20th century and thus 21st century will look very different for US: USA will become one of many technological powerhouses and America’s technological superiority if any will be marginal
Technological breakthroughs depend on two things: 1. the freedom to innovate and think critically and 2. The mass application on the S curve which wont happen without a robust thriving consumer market. China is ageing. India may be the next new kid on the block but it is dependent on external energy resources. Its key partner is America, not Russia or the Arab nations.
I agree. Unless they buy or enslave every good brain on the planet. Or partner with extraterrestrials to finance technological advances.
@@jeremiahliang8273 whatever Americans can invent in 21st century with their critical thinking and innovations Chinese can copy/replicate within 1~5 years. For example, when Americans got nuke in 1945 it took China 20 years and support of USSR to get their own nuke. For India it took 30 years. These days because the gap in technology between countries is not that big the lag in worst case would be within 5 years.
@@iexploiter china's innovation is horizontal and not strong in vertical leaps. They are decades behind the Taiwanese an Koreans in 3nm chip making
@@jeremiahliang8273 what those 3nm really change? This is exactly what I mean - marginal superiority which doesn’t really change anything. 3nm processor smartphone or 20nm smartphone- will you really see the difference between them ? This is more a marketing to explain average user why they need to buy a new phone
How do microphones work? Someone please explain to Friedman.
2023 is fast approaching. Events are unfolding. Interesting to listen to him in today's reality . A neocon faithful to the cause .
Problem is those that know do not speak . those that claim to know shout and bark .
you are so right
I would like to hear the validity of his arguments now in August 2022.
I think his comments about Russia won't age well. The U.S. fought their wars in the Middle East with one arm tied around their back to avoid excessive collateral damage. The same is true of Russia vs Ukraine, or at least it was at first. America's wars in the Middle East were not existential conflicts for them. Russia's war in Ukraine IS. It's not a conflict Russia can even entertain the idea of losing. They are about to go all out short of bringing out the nukes, and when they do, Ukraine is going to be crushed unless NATO gets directly involved in the fighting.
thanks for sharing , verry informative👍
One of my favourite US analysts together with John Mearsheimer. Glad to listen to this recent cpnference and see he is doing well and stay active. He is clerly not a fan of Russia/Putin however I am afraid he might need to update his model with respect to Russia role in 2025. This geopolitical subject is clearly not in the position to claim the role of the antagonist against the egemonic power of USA, however it has demonstrated with these recent eventst hat when there's a need they can compact and are still capable to stand against Ucraina which is/was not such a weak country being armed and financed by collective western countries (NATO), and not only survived the sanctions but they benefited of that being an immensely rich country! We/they will see in 25 years cross who is right!
Well you are laught at for a reason. Of course the chinese economy will slow after such a boom but they have population to grow further and be a bigger economy than the USA which is crucial for the world politics. Russia was not economic power even in the soviet days, they are now even with sanctions better than they were in the 90s and late 80s.... and another total mistake of yours is not to mention India and Indonesia as a future superpowers. How can Poland for Christ sake be a power when they have collapsing demographics and bigger than the rest of the EU and live from the donations of Brussels? They don't even have much of national resources. For Turkey the past 5 years were a signal enough that they will not grow much further than they already are, but they have been a power for centauries so it's not like they will vanish.
So that Pole’s would crush their heads on Russia tanks.
Turkey grow this year 4%
My impression is that Japan had already emerged, had since plateaued, and still has a lot to offer but is in a reasonable steady state. Hardly an ‘emerging’ country. He’s 50 years out of date. This guy sees the world as an arena where countries race each other. A lot of regions would rather see it as an ecosystem where countries with mutual interests find each other and develop together for mutual benefit. If this latter paradigm wins out (arguably it has to, or the planetary climate and biological systems will collapse and all civilisation gets set back a thousand years), then the true emerging countries would be those of the most benefit to the most other countries. This is a different way to look back to divine what’s ahead, ie what has happened in the past 50-100 years that will *force* the next 50-100 years, rather than assuming countries continue to enjoy the ability to just want what it wants without considering hard limits of, you know, physics and reality.
You might be almost right about Poland but Turkey is still rising even with a dictatorship government and poor people. She has much more potential than any other European power if governed correctly.
We can not predict future anyways.
@@niichisann Yeah collapsing currency can boost export-driven GDP growth.. let's see for how long. Turks are not poor for world standards. Turkey does not have much natural resources, but its neutrality with Russia and growing trade between them is in huge benefit for Turkey, I admire how good Erdogan managed his relations with Russia.
The world is ending in 10 years due to the conflict among countries, so why worry what's going to come in 28 years from now??? He he he!
Excellent overview of the ebb and flow of the geopolitical landscape and the success/limits of war gaming and importance that open sourcing has become to this continuity plan. This convergence of knowledge is as inevitable as the science of language and mathematics. The real test is what world view will prevail? One of increasing Liberty and Peace by this forced equality of technology or more humanistic principles of control?
Very interesting talk!
So to watch:
19:12
Japan, Turkey, Poland.
It took me a few seconds to realize when he was talking about camera development, he meant digital camera, as classic film cameras long preceded what he was talking about
I think we can only wait for time to prove whether he is right or not.
USA won't exist in 2050. Either peaceful divorce of left and right, or civil wars. China will be the biggest superpower.
He mentioned 9/11 then people started walking out 😅
Very interesting. As was his lectern and mic control. Great content, he meandered through history and the future with many interesting insights. Unfortunately, the focus of his intellect was somewhat watered down by his meanderings around the stage - out of earshot of the microphone on the lectern at times. Slight oversight? Otherwise, very interesting indeed. :)
Poor lecturer .making us all sleep
Making us fight.
Some of the tech he mentioned was used in the 40s by the nazzi's. Even though its hard to imagine
He seems to more like a USA fan boy and not every technology invented is from defense . necessity is mother of all inventions
I wonder if Mr. Friedman is correct on who invented internet. Is it a British guy, not a U S Project?
We can add to the technologies, the impact of Turkish drones.
Dude, in 2050 we will have reached the technological singularity. It is impossible to predict how the world will be. In the next 30 years we will see more changes, disruptions and revolutions than all the previous ages combined.
Is this all we understand power and money? Do humans even matter to these minds? These thoughts will lead to nothing in 2050 if such minds survive.
Thanks for this.
Not power and money at all but something higher and nobler than that!
I use to buy into what Mr. Friedman to say, but over the years, he has become just US scentric. The thing I wonder is that all the short comings he see with Russia and China, why does he not think that they can also see it and do something it. Why does he think that only US and Europe can see their fault and do something about it. Why can Russia, China, India, Africa, Iran and many others not see their faults and issues and do something about them.
Because dictators don’t want to be criticized, so people around them won’t tell them. It’s usually the case.
@@yi4913 Are implying that those who preach democracy are better for humanity that than those the claim are practicing dictatorship. Democracy has done much more harm to humanity on planet earth in the last 2 to 3 decades than dictatorships. Just look at what China and Russia has achieved for they average people, especially China or Rwanda or Liybia under Gaddafi.
Because he’s American?
@@yi4913 Biden administration is the best example of dictatorship....
Not so sure about that!
1- Japan is a great power, are rearming quickly and certainly can manage innovation but they got 2 huge problems. Most rapidly aging population in the world and a complete lack of natural ressources.
2- Poland might be the best bet here. Their economy as well as military is growing rapidly, receiving massive investments and their social context is more stable then many western europeen countries. Although they lack energy autonomy beside coal.
3- Turkey is another story. They're developping their military but led by an autocratic regime and embracing conservative religious values isn't a good recipe for innovation. Also corruption, ramping inflation and lack of good economic management is currently killing turkey's potential.
All in all those countries are regional powers but in no way going to be next superpowers.
He made a prediction in his book that Russia and China would collapse in the late 20s. In the chapter "poachers paradise," the 3 powers take the opportunity to expand their borders and influence.
Not a word about climate change. That will likely be the biggest factor in determining conditions in 2050.
Listen wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction(hell), but small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life(heaven), only a few find it.Matthew7:13 Believe/repent in God's son Jesus today, please think about it dont be left behind, you can still be saved even after the rapture. Love Y'all
I like the part where Moses ties his ass to a tree in the wilderness, and then walks forty miles.
Poland is going to be a power! 💪
Poland alone will not be but united with other countries like Czech, Slovakia, Baltic States and Ukraine there is a very good chance to be a big regional power. Greetings from 🇨🇦
@@wessudol9708 include Romania, Bulgaria and the Western Baltics, and Hungary (without Orban) and it can be the center of an economic bloc and defensive alliance with the USA.
In Ghana most parents says if students are allowed to use to mobile phones they will spoil. Everything has advantages and disadvantages, parents have to be responsible by allowing learners to learn the NETIQUETTES. That's the way forward. Some ignorant people also said is a sign of 666, very crazy.
Find myself agreeing with this guy on most of his points!