The problem with the condos in Toronto is that many new buildings are not very nice, personally I would never want to live in one, but older buildings in better locations are still in demand and some have seen tremendous appreciation so now are fully valued, while detached homes are really the most sought after and no new ones are being built, but prices have been stagnating due to high mortgage rates.
really? i am so glad someone cleared up that mystery!!! new condos all look the same,..bad old condos all look tired,unless you renovate and they never look after the exterior , detached homes need hundreds of thousands of repairs. there now you know the REAL story
Hi Zhen, can you comment on this questions. I read in the past that 15%-25% of detached homes in Toronto are owned by investors. If condos are not selling, their owners are putting them for rent and for cheap. This means that detached home investors can't rent and might have to sell them.
I don't think that's true about detached homes and investors. Especially in areas where detached homes are over 1 mil. The suburbs where they are not I can potentially seer that. However with prices that low and the option to do multi unit in detached homes its much easier to carry houses than condos. Since condos are basically restricted to 1 unit dwelling.
It'll make the rate cutting cycle faster and recession harder since GDP will come down by a lot. It's projected to be a 2% GDP drop if they go through with the immigration reform. More on that Tuesday since the big new just came out.
Seems weird that the market would pickup when we reach actual GFC level recession. So when people start really losing their jobs, that's when everyone will decide to buy a house at historically high prices?
Just ask yourself, as long as you want to stay in GTA, do you need a place to stay? Either own or rent. Somebody must have own it, right? GTA is the economic fortress of Canada , economy in other provinces or areas is even worse. This will drive them to come to GTA in hope of getting job. They need places to stay also. Someone needs to own for them to rent, otherwise rental will keep going up and rate goes down until it’s attractive to invest again. Question now only is when? As long as people don’t leave, demand still is very strong . That is why you me are in this channel hoping chance to own rather than leave, isn’t it?
who you think bought all the houses during the GFC.... that would be hedge funds, blackrock etc. When prices fall and rents stay about the same, cap rate goes up which means more investors in the market, not less.
@@PrimePropertiesTO 25% of people lose their job, but the other 75% of people are afraid they will lose their job, or their business. Not the time to sign up to spend a million+ dollars! On the other hand, you buy when there's blood in the streets, even if some of it is yours.
2025 will be the start where the bears start complaining about the real estate market. Mind u they complained on the way down saying prices arnt falling enough.
The Ontario Home Sales per 1000 population is a touch misleading... the sales numbers are less pessimistic than the chart shows. The majority of the boom in new arrivals into Canada since 2022 are not home buyers... they fall into three categories - international students, refugees, and temporary foreign workers. None of these cohorts (or very very few) are in the market to buy. We see this impact on another stat that everyone seems to quote... GDP per capita. It has been falling for 7 straight quarters... Why? Because our population boom is made up of low skill workers who either can't find a job or can only find a low paying one - it skews the average and median income numbers down. The reality is that the size home buying cohort has remained STATIC as our TOTAL population has increased (because we screwed up our immigration system allowing in far too many low income, low skill persons.) To further illustrate my point with an extreme example... what would this chart look like if we admitted 5 million refugees into the country? The chart would look far, far worse. Now imagine the chart if our immigration system attracted 5 million wealthy individuals who were able to buy as soon as they arrived. We are re-tooling our immigration system in real time... our population is about to fall. As these temporary, low income, low skill residents leave the country, sales per 1000 population will rise along with real GDP per capita .... Totally agree however, that the economy is about to roll over... buckle up....
Perhaps you missed the +43,000 jobs in Ontario. Sales are up y/y in Hamilton and GTA, there's also some fiscal stimulus with govt workers having won a higher raise than given initially and they will be soon getting a nice check for past due amount. It all looks up for Ontario, but BofC cannot be concerned with just one province.
Condos going up in 2025 and houses flat to down? yep! (you got it reversed)... the rapid rate reductions will flip condos back to cashflowing hard... meanwhile houses and their 1.2m average pricepoint will be slow to increase with the sheer amount of debt needed to buy. (my condos with 30% LTVs so small mortgages will be printing money fast with rates falling)
@@PrimePropertiesTO also, if the price variance of 800k between a house and condo remains the same, that means condos are outperforming houses... ( because if a 1m house and 500k condo go up 5%, the price variance goes up by 25k) But ya a lower interest rate isn't gonna help you qualify for a million bucks of mortgage
When is 1/2 of a percent a gargantuan rate cut?
The problem with the condos in Toronto is that many new buildings are not very nice, personally I would never want to live in one, but older buildings in better locations are still in demand and some have seen tremendous appreciation so now are fully valued, while detached homes are really the most sought after and no new ones are being built, but prices have been stagnating due to high mortgage rates.
really? i am so glad someone cleared up that mystery!!! new condos all look the same,..bad old condos all look tired,unless you renovate and they never look after the exterior , detached homes need hundreds of thousands of repairs. there now you know the REAL story
Hi Zhen, can you comment on this questions. I read in the past that 15%-25% of detached homes in Toronto are owned by investors. If condos are not selling, their owners are putting them for rent and for cheap. This means that detached home investors can't rent and might have to sell them.
I don't think that's true about detached homes and investors. Especially in areas where detached homes are over 1 mil.
The suburbs where they are not I can potentially seer that. However with prices that low and the option to do multi unit in detached homes its much easier to carry houses than condos. Since condos are basically restricted to 1 unit dwelling.
The rate should be below 3% now
If you are American - are you allowed to take out a Canadian mortgage ?
Yes, but certain banks have different requirements on downpayment and income qualification.
What about immigration they are cutting now
It'll make the rate cutting cycle faster and recession harder since GDP will come down by a lot. It's projected to be a 2% GDP drop if they go through with the immigration reform. More on that Tuesday since the big new just came out.
Seems weird that the market would pickup when we reach actual GFC level recession.
So when people start really losing their jobs, that's when everyone will decide to buy a house at historically high prices?
Just ask yourself, as long as you want to stay in GTA, do you need a place to stay? Either own or rent. Somebody must have own it, right? GTA is the economic fortress of Canada , economy in other provinces or areas is even worse. This will drive them to come to GTA in hope of getting job. They need places to stay also. Someone needs to own for them to rent, otherwise rental will keep going up and rate goes down until it’s attractive to invest again. Question now only is when? As long as people don’t leave, demand still is very strong . That is why you me are in this channel hoping chance to own rather than leave, isn’t it?
Everyone's affected different. A depression is >25% job loss. Thats still 75% of ppl working.
It could be rough for rents with the new immigration rules coming. Major headwinds with population reduction in 2025/2026
who you think bought all the houses during the GFC.... that would be hedge funds, blackrock etc. When prices fall and rents stay about the same, cap rate goes up which means more investors in the market, not less.
@@PrimePropertiesTO 25% of people lose their job, but the other 75% of people are afraid they will lose their job, or their business.
Not the time to sign up to spend a million+ dollars!
On the other hand, you buy when there's blood in the streets, even if some of it is yours.
I think construction accounts for 40% with all factors
Maybe real estate plus accounts for 30-35%. Depends how you classify "plus"
2025 will be the start where the bears start complaining about the real estate market.
Mind u they complained on the way down saying prices arnt falling enough.
Likely
Prices r moving up in US and Europe.
When do they not complain? lol
The Ontario Home Sales per 1000 population is a touch misleading... the sales numbers are less pessimistic than the chart shows. The majority of the boom in new arrivals into Canada since 2022 are not home buyers... they fall into three categories - international students, refugees, and temporary foreign workers. None of these cohorts (or very very few) are in the market to buy.
We see this impact on another stat that everyone seems to quote... GDP per capita. It has been falling for 7 straight quarters... Why? Because our population boom is made up of low skill workers who either can't find a job or can only find a low paying one - it skews the average and median income numbers down. The reality is that the size home buying cohort has remained STATIC as our TOTAL population has increased (because we screwed up our immigration system allowing in far too many low income, low skill persons.)
To further illustrate my point with an extreme example... what would this chart look like if we admitted 5 million refugees into the country? The chart would look far, far worse. Now imagine the chart if our immigration system attracted 5 million wealthy individuals who were able to buy as soon as they arrived.
We are re-tooling our immigration system in real time... our population is about to fall. As these temporary, low income, low skill residents leave the country, sales per 1000 population will rise along with real GDP per capita ....
Totally agree however, that the economy is about to roll over... buckle up....
Agreed, thats a valid point with the higher NPR. Good point.
With the new immigration rules, GDP coming down for real hard. Buckle up is right!
Perhaps you missed the +43,000 jobs in Ontario. Sales are up y/y in Hamilton and GTA, there's also some fiscal stimulus with govt workers having won a higher raise than given initially and they will be soon getting a nice check for past due amount. It all looks up for Ontario, but BofC cannot be concerned with just one province.
Condos going up in 2025 and houses flat to down? yep! (you got it reversed)... the rapid rate reductions will flip condos back to cashflowing hard... meanwhile houses and their 1.2m average pricepoint will be slow to increase with the sheer amount of debt needed to buy.
(my condos with 30% LTVs so small mortgages will be printing money fast with rates falling)
We'll see at end of 2025? Coffee for the winner?
Nice on 30 LTV condo 💪
@@PrimePropertiesTO also, if the price variance of 800k between a house and condo remains the same, that means condos are outperforming houses... ( because if a 1m house and 500k condo go up 5%, the price variance goes up by 25k)
But ya a lower interest rate isn't gonna help you qualify for a million bucks of mortgage
buyers get ready for cheaper homes soon
its time for you to find a new topic, it is tired