Coding won’t exist in 5 years? You might be right.
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- Опубликовано: 15 мар 2023
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The talk about AI taking our programming jobs is everywhere. There are articles being written, social media going crazy, and comments on seemingly every one of my RUclips videos. And when I made my video about ChatGPT, I had two particular comments that stuck out to me. One was that someone wished I had included my opinion about AI in that video, and the other was asking if AI will make programmers obsolete in 5 years. This video is to do just that. And after learning, researching, and using many different AI tools over the last many months (a video about those tools coming soon), well let’s just say I have many thoughts on this topic. What AI can do for programmers right now. How it’s looking to progress in the near future. And will it make programmers obsolete in the next 5 years? Enjoy!!
The Sessions I Mentioned:
Fireside Chat with Ilya Sutskever and Jensen Huang: AI Today and Vision of the Future [S52092]: www.nvidia.com/gtc/session-ca...
Using AI to Accelerate Scientific Discovery [S51831]: www.nvidia.com/gtc/session-ca...
Generative AI Demystified [S52089]: www.nvidia.com/gtc/session-ca...
3D by AI: Using Generative AI and NeRFs for Building Virtual Worlds [S52163]: www.nvidia.com/gtc/session-ca...
Achieving Enterprise Transformation with AI and Automation Technologies [S52056]: www.nvidia.com/gtc/session-ca...
A portion of this video is sponsored by NVIDIA.
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this video is idiotic. we arent talking about machines, we are talking about demonic, synthetic intelligences. 25 IQ take
😮 I mean they're so right there's some things that only humans can do😮 so have you heard of the😮 brain organoid computer😮 we can make computers out of human brain cells by reprogramming skin cells😮 and growing them😮 and in fact using AI we've gotten a lot better at this making them three-dimensional and connecting them to other organoids😮 the organoids are more efficient than AI compute faster😮 and require less energy instead of us making materials they literally are just grown😮 translation we are 100%😮 times a billion cooked we are deep fried😮 flaming Youg😮
software engineers got so obsessed with optimizing, we began to optimize ourselves out of the industry
Lol this. That's what you get for being myopic
Maybe it is time to evolve away from writing the same repetitive code over and over again and instead focus on building solutions for customers. AI is the new tool to make software engineers better.
@Todd Snyder At the same time it makes software engineering easier. And when something becomes easy, what happens?
@Blind Faith this sounds like the evolution of software development. For years, developers were stuck building reports, and now there are plenty of tools that empower end users. This freed developers to focus on something else more critical to the business. I personally do not see developers going away. Instead, we need to evolve. When this happens, we learn new and exciting things.
@@PersonOfBook what about problem solving though. As technology advances and we start to expand, AI may just prove to be a tool to make things easier and be the blenders in the code AI generates (and put them into the project well). Maby roles may change
I am about to graduate with a CS degree and the thought of losing a career I haven't even started terrifies me
I do think there's a way to position oneself within the industry to ensure job safety, but I do think many jobs within the industry aren't safe at all.
Same
I hear ya. I got a programming essentials certificate and currently working on my degree as well from my local university. It’s already a pain in the ass trying to even get into a job nowadays with big tech layoffs and start up shutdowns due to the economy crashing.
I’m honestly thinking about starting OnlyFans as this is my second career change from electronics technician.
Of course I’ll try to improve as much skills as I can. One things for sure tech interviews will be a lot harder now.
Just learn to code!
Oh wait
@Artimus yeah and you will definitely make a lot of money with only fans. Sex sells.
It's funny how programmers managed to cause chaos on lot of careers, and now they're doing it to themselves
😂
im retiring in 5 years, so this is fine 😂😂
@@briantep458 You'll make it, probably.
@@harackmw its 3 to 10 years, depending on how well my tech/AI stocks do and if I can get out before the big crash 😂
Ai making Ai that is programmed to make the Ai
I used to work in an accounting team producing invoices, tax schedules, policy documents (real fun shit). Overtime, I noticed that more and more software updates were coming in, making it easier to auto-generate these documents. We were a whole department of well over 20 people when I joined. By the time I left after just 2 years, there were just 3 "quality control" checkers. Personally, I never liked the job anyway and was glad to be moving on. But the worst part was there were people who had been doing that their whole life. Some had been at the company 30+ years. They didn't know anything else. My best advice to anyone worried about job security is make hay while the sun still shines and have a plan B.
Plan B? I'm a man. I can't start an onlyfans nor I want to be a pimp🤷♂️
Also revolt the system
@@TechnoViking__ lol you absolutely can start an onlyfans
@@TechnoViking__ onlyfans will be replaced by chatgpt + some animation filters so gg. There's already a girl that automated hers
@@TechnoViking__ Don't be unattractive 🤣
If AI is writing software better than humans, we have a much bigger problem than being out of a job.
@@valentin7436 false ai can already do many things better than us right now even though we have given the information, it can invent novel ideas.
on the other had, the same can be said for humans.
humans also learn from other humans or existing information that was discovered and gathered from around the world.
if AI is limited to the dataset we give it, so are humans also limited to the data they receive from external stimulus in their environment.
you are able to type this comment in English because you learnt the language of english
@@businessmanager7670 correct, so you said the same thing I said 😂
@@valentin7436 Humans can improve Their coding from existing information, skills and practise.
so can ai.
and ai is not limited to the storage Capacity of the human Brain which will give it better capabilities to write code.
already, ai can write articles and essays at the level of top humans, if not better.
and also better than most average to high end people.
infact ai was given information on chess, from humans, but it now used that information and discovered new ways that humans never thought about and now it is better than all humans at chess.
same is going to happen with coding.
so good luck with your dreams lol
@@businessmanager7670 I agree with you about your statement "humans also learn from other humans or existing information that was discovered and gathered from around the world." But I think the biggest difference is that AI can't think of counterfactuals and interventions like humans can. So until AI can do this I don't think it will surpass us. For reference look at Judea Pearls Causal Inference work.
@@goshua13 ai has already made inventions and discoveries.
scientific papers are published on it.
ai discovered alternate physics and ai invented new algorithms.
there are papers published on both those subjects.
ai is capable of novel inventions like humans
I would like to offer some solace to those new CS graduates who commented on this video about their fears. I had only 5 years in the print industry before all jobs dissapeared in that industry, but what I knew about typography and layout was not obsolete. Once I learned some coding I could transition to that field and utilize what I knew. Also, a lot of what it means to do a job well is universal. I'm not going to go into particulars, but basically being a good worker is a skill of it's own, and learning is as well. Whatever the future holds, I bet you will be well equipped to handle it.
Really Appreciated
Go ahead ❤
thanks, really appreciate, i am basically a self taught going to graduate in a month or two . The degree is nothing, everything i have to do, i have to learn is by my self, no mentor, its hard. On top of that these ai tools scare the shit out of me. But then i should be scared if i am jot working hard.
I am relieved. Thanks Heisenberg!
My advise to young people is do not get pregnant as the future with automation and A.I. robotics will need only a tiny fraction of labor. It advances much amfaster than even a guy in IT for 20 years would have guessed. I was certain something like ChatGPT was 20 years away based in the A.I detecting cats in videos only happened in 2012.
Just many months ago everyone told kids to learn coding and now today adults and CS students are being told to quit college and coding? WTF?
They have to outperform an AI now, that is their competition, very despairing.
Things change quick in this technological era. It's adapt or die. Also this AI projected take over was known and expected many years ago.
@@Yggdrasill8 we are fine, AI is not real AI, just machine learning and people with little experience with chat gpt cant really code well or know what to do.
@@Annntttt12we are not fine see brother we humans created nuclear bombs but they cannot reproduce, but ai can create more models just by merging and writing new code on its own , hell this has happened already and don't forget most of the models that are being made half of them use ainto visualize and layout how the model will work and look it is already at par of an high IQ individual with lots of memory and everyday gaining new knowledge due to the fact most of the things that are happening are on the internet and it learns from the internet
bro go to english class@@piyushnarayan9342
Looks like the programmers get to know what it feels like to be artists right now
This is the way.
I reckon artists are in a much better position than programmers tbh. People like storytelling, relatability, originality, humour etc. At the moment, generative AI doesn't seem to do any of those particularly well. It might improve in the future.
What's with OpenAI destroying careers?
The question is that us programmers already knew what was coming.
This was already obvious 3 or 4 years ago, knowing how fast AI evolves
If programmers get taken out, you understand 90% of all jobs will go with them?
Currently halfway through my bachelor in software engineering. Decided to get back to school at 27 and pursue it. How did I get like the worst timing ever wtf
That sounds like a you problem.
@@_slickyricky What was the point of this?
I am just about to start this fall at 27. Having second thoughts..GPT was literally released couple of days after I got accepted to college
Don't worry, AI is not going to replace Developers. It will replace easy coding where you can just Google stuff.
I'm in the same boat. Pats on the back for going back to school at our age but now it feels like bad timing.
I'm literally in my first year of a CS degree and all I have ever wanted was to become a Software Engineer, gain tons of experience and within 10 years get a really well paid job. It actually sickens me that this is more than likely never going to happen now and I'm not going to lie, its seriously effecting my mental health.
Imagine how assembly programmers felt when high level languages started to become a thing. Then "autocorrect" in IDEs.
If you are smart enough, you will navigate through this. Remember, even if the AI makes code suggestions, even if it is extremely sophisticated and just works at some point, there will be a need for humans who can understand the code and work with the machine. Especially when the amount of code produced increases globally, which will happen if the AI gets better at coding, the need for skilled people increases. The layoffs are because of different reasons, if you are serious about this profession, you will be fine.
Also, there are so many useless people at work, it's unimaginable that someone who is good at SE will get fired because of the cognitive potential in that person to do anything complicated, given some time.
If you really want to "feel safe", get off the "AI Hype train" bombarded with numb-minded trend followers right now and familiarize yourself with the technology, from top to bottom. Start with Python, use the libraries, follow guides and simply replicate the process of machine learning so that you at least understand some of it. Then work your way down to the details, but this isn't necessary. Some lunatic who thinks using ChatGPT will make him the best "coder" ever will never, never be able to do the job a real passionate and understanding SE can accomplish.
To get a good job in general, you will have to be adaptive, but in a relaxed, yet professional way. Otherwise, you will not keep up, or burn out. Find perfect balance and serenity in your innate abilities. Technical skill, essential to get employed, will be part of you after doing some projects.
Don't ever underestimate the potential of your mind, it works differently from a machine learning algorithm.
Simply focus on your studies and put your mind to work on projects that fascinate you.
yep im stressing as i graduate this year. I dont know what the hell i want to do now
same man, idk what to do.
Just focus on data science (ML &AI), so that you can create AI's to replace even more jobs ( I know it sounds harsh but that's the reality)💀
my friend if it's your first year (and you're not that into it) I'd tell you to find another career.
If you like it there will be a lot of jobs that are related to hardware programming/SDKs/big data/IT admins/etc that will still require humans.
As a student who’s about to graduate college really soon with a CS degree. I’m terrified. I basically have about 2-3 years to save as much money as I can and save that money to get into another major 😭 nursing school here I come
By the time you finish nursing school nursing will also be automated 🤣🤣.
Please don't change your career because of a clickbait video.
@@Boobeinstein 😂😂
Study more about what LLMs are and how they understand and produce results. For them to take any job, they need to have a model of the world from which they can infer various relations, like writing code. Now that model needs to be wildly complex, near humanlike or better in order to juggle different levels of abstraction correctly. You'd expect such llm to understand us, users of applications, the organizations, the hardware, the software in order for it to take good predictions in building large scale apps.
It's not just about writing scripts and answering short and well defined prompts. If it needs to take a software dev's job it needs to be a lot more wise about everything than gpt-4 seems to be or could be. The fact our tests are miserably designed does not mean passing them implies an AI can do the actual job.
We take a lot of things for granted when dealing with other humans, which is not a given in any way for an LLM. Imagine a driving test that only asks you question about driving regulations. Just because we take as a given you are able to see and recognize things correctly on the street does not mean a LLM that answers perfectly will ever take a trucker's job.
If you just go into any enterprise and see the mess of all the jumbled up code/apis/db structures and dysfunctional organization, you could never get all that into an AI be it GPT-4,5,6..
Any sufficiently smart AI to worry about will be either an AGI or incredibly expensive to run for such mundane tasks when it could be used for financial or world domination. As much as you consider any job safe, SWE is still near the top.
Good Luck and don't lose faith because of hype, it's easy to imagine things and dream about potential of things, it's very hard to actually to implement anything functional. Keep an eye on Microsoft, there will be no GPT-4 in excel any time soon. Give it a year and let's see what happens!
@@josephp.3341 Most intermediate level work done by grads with a B.S. in CS or IT will vanish. However, the demand for AI experts and prodigy coders or those with PHDs will be greater than ever.
I just started my programming career a year and a half ago after a very long time of not knowing what to do with my life. I finally found something that I feel like is worth doing, how ironic.
Now im not even sure if i want to continue my hobbies anymore. I can see this helping me with my side projects/hobbies creating games n stuff but as a career? nah, I think i'll have to find a new outlook
omg same here. I quit my job and literally half way through my learning process. The thought of demand decrease in the industry really scares me
Outsourcing is a bigger threat. No-code tools for a narrow business space are bigger threat. Coding still exists. It always will, because humans always think they can do something better. Even if it is writing a better AI.
Don't you find is weird that those peddling "AI Revolution" are the ones building a product in AI? All information about replacing programmers is coming from those who have a stake in it.
lol same
This will be my 18th year developing software. I fully admit that the thought of a future where writing code is an obsolete practice makes me... If nothing else, sad. I personally have a blazing passion for learning the nuances of these technical languages and applying them to invent things that haven't been built before. I've heard many people mention that in the future, knowing how to prompt AI software will become a critical skill, and I believe that. Not really sure where I'm going with all this, but I guess I'm likely going to have to learn how to deal with my passion becoming obsolete.
Agree. We humans pride our intellect above all things. It's what makes us different from other animals. The advent of AI is quite humbling. Considering many people find themselves in their work and their work being a source of not only income but of satisfaction, this new tech is a spanner in the works.
this make me believe you're just an egocentric human (wow what a surprise right), the fact you think it's sad to democratize coding because you lose your own sense of worth is frankly disgusting. I would rather have AI and allow the large majority to benefit and produce content which they would otherwise never have been able to instead of a select few "elitist" programmers that dictate what can be made. Glory to AI ☝
He is right, people that have the passion and that work hard for it should be the ones to dictate and not someone who sits around doing.
As a new cs student... it feels a bit deflating to know that AI will mostly be doing the writing. It's not that the deep technical knowledge won't be required, but humans will take the role of an overseer, as AI will shit out code faster than I could think it. It also makes me wonder what happens to our own critical thinking as we extend more and more of it to machines, as they are simply so much better at it.
Sure, we are getting more efficient in terms of getting to the end product, but I see the future where AI's automatically write our text for us, emulate our voice and handle our calls for us, make all calculations and handle all our problems for us. And on the altar of efficiency, we will sacrifice our humanity and our ability for critical thinking. Most interaction between humans will be AI's responding to other AI's. When we erase ourselves from human interaction, what will be left?
@@hyde4004 To be honest all those tasks are bitch work. Find your human worth in other more meaningful endeavors such as pondering the meaning of life and physics to help humanity end its woes before the next major natural disaster or man made one.
As a CS graduate of 1 year, my life has only recently started becoming stable with a moderate job and positive career prospects... except the advent of AI has shattered that image of stability for me. I can't predict how the following years will go, how the industry I've spent years studying for will change and morph, and when the value I've built up for myself as a software engineer will decrease or, quite possibly, become irrelevant.
I thought the toughest and most doubtful years of my life were behind me, but the coming years look much more difficult to struggle through than I could have predicted :(
Same here,i'm crying here paralyzed to not even continue on with my classes.
Have zero motivation right now
I didn't mean to scare or demotivate anyone. I still love CS and programming. It's just, I did the research and came to a conclusion and shared that conclusion based on what I found, which happens to be something many of us don't want to hear. But also keep in mind, that conclusion is also just one man's opinion. There's a lot of information out there - and don't see this as a plug or anything since NVIDIA is the sponsor - but I do think there will be some good info shared at GTC next week since their main focus is AI. Hopefully opinions are shared by many of these industry leaders, and let's hope they give a good explanation as to why they think the way they do.
I do think there will be more doors opened to freelance opportunities, and a way to position yourself properly in the existing job market to have better job safety.
If you've finished a CS degree, you're probably way better off than the people who barely know any CS fundamentals
You're not going to be obsolete in the next 2-5 years atleast, the tools are amazing but not That amazing, what i think it will do pretty darned soon is jack up the skill floor Way up, less competent and junior programmers will get squeezed out by good to excellent programmers, there are limits to which such AI can't reach, tasks that require actual conscious thought and true reflection. But that's a rather smaller set of problems/jobs than currently. Heck i got a qualification in the industry just a few days ago, but i ain't planning on changing careers (just did that) or becoming obsolete. It's lifes good ol' reminder to not be complacent, this is a race you can win starting today, in 5 years maybe not (atleast for many).
@@fknight you have to understand the influence you have on young people aged 14-25 with clickbait titles.
I'd just like to offer some words of encouragement, I have been a professional software developer for almost 10 years now, and currently use Chat GPT to assist with bugs, issues and writing skeleton code. I can tell you that it is very far from replacing a human developer. It gets a lot of things wrong and more importantly, it doesn't "connect the dots" like a human can. I'm what I consider a below average developer technically, yet I've almost 10x my salary over the past 10 years and have a great career. We aren't going anywhere, this is just another tool to help us do our jobs, if anything, this will offer developers more opportunity.
So if you're currently studying CS or similar, keep going. And if you want any further more personal advice, feel free to get in touch.
Cheers, good luck!
Sure, that’s how it is now. But just consider how fast it is improving. I can’t even imagine how good ChatGPT will be in just 1 year.
Hello sir, I am preparing for exam and trying to get in the best College to study CSE. Iam currently in class 12th. It was my dream to work as a programmer. But, as things are coming I am afraid, will there be job left for me 4 years later. As I will get in college (hopefully) in August 2023. So, should I choose CSE? 😢
Please provide your Telegram handle 😊
You are giving them bad advice. ChatGPT wasn't even trained on programming data. Nobody will be programming 20 years from now.
How long befor it gets over that??,?,with every upgrade its gets better ie gpt--10 ????
After a lot of personal struggles I am about to join as a data engineer and this makes me feel depressed so much ! Just can’t imagine what life will be after all this mess
did you have any previous experience as a data enginner or data role before ?
data analysts and engineers are the first one to become redundant. Please start developing other skills on side.
@@youko1995245 No
As a new dev still looking for job #1, it's really worrying.
Haha 😂 good luck
Please still learn to program. I would start learning how now you can start working with GPT.
@@viperjay1 what's in it for you? can't find enough people to hire? OP try to specialize in AI
@@btm1 because it's still a good skill to have. I am not a programmer, just a helpdesk tech trying to find work since I was laid off on August of 22 😥
I like how you address the possible mid/long-term impacts of AI on the industry while so many have been dismissing them by just showing the early errors with ChatGPT. It might not be nice to hear but it's important to talk about.
would like to giv' you 99 likes ...
Absolutely spot on comment.
I think a lot of these opinions were made before chat 4. Honestly I don't think people really considered chat 3 to be that crazy, they just hyped it up way too much. But with how quickly chat 4 came out its definitely a question of when, when will it take our jobs now cuz the improvement is major and it came really quick
Thank you so much for the video. I got into (manual) software testing and intend to shift to automation engineer, currently playing with Ranorex and learning Python. I was super excited, I love the job, love learning to code and love to see the results of my job actually helping the client... And now.. I feel kind of intimidated I'd say. I've tried chatGPT and while I saw some of its drawbacks (for example when translating from one language to another), I was still impressed. I agree that in 10 years there might be no place for junior devs/testers, who knows. Saying that there is no chance for AI replacing those jobs reminds me of how in 1900 everyone said that humans won't fly in hundreds of years. And then in 1903 the Wrights flew..
I'm a software engineer for like 15 years. The thing that makes me sad is ... I became programmer / software engineer because as a kid / teenager I liked to ... write code.
Now, when I'm sometimes a software engineer, fullstack, or some kind of solution architect, knowing some dev ops stuff, I'm still the happiest when I don't have meetings, when I don't write ADR documents - I'm happiest when I finally can sit and ... write code. That's the best part of being software engineer. At some point writing code will be kind of pointless because everything will be delivered faster by AI.
Funny question ForrestKnight. Who will write new frameworks ? Who will write new programming languages if we will be reduced ? :)
Also, what about legal part ? At the moment, there are software houses that forbid using chat gpt or any kind of code completion / analysis because the code is their property. There is no guarantee that the code you pasted is not an input for AI. Some companies / software houses don't want that. Yes, pure competition can change that (if one software house which uses AI will offer project finished 50 % faster ;) ) but still I think that at some time , somebody may create a new license that will ie. forbid to use code as an input data for AI / Chat GPT. Now, it's a little bit of wild wild west ;) Somebody took the code from all over the internet, didn't care about license, about code attribution and put it into Chat GPT. I'm not so sure if it won't end up in huge sueing case in court.
If I put some code on my website, or repository, it doesn't necessary mean that I allowed it to be crawled and used as AI training / input data, without any kind of code attribution, credits or whatever.
I think, and to be honest hope, that sooner or later some new License will show - literally "u can use my code (as a human being, because I like to share my knowledge with humans ;) ) freely for non-commercial, commercial use, BUT it's forbidden to be used as training data for commercial AIs" (built by the greedy corporations that are above the law - as youTuber you cannot put 5 secs music without claims but you can steal code and build AI around it, just like that, if you're big corporation).
It's not that AI is taking programmers jobs. AI is taking literally whole (tech)industry and becoming the owner of it.
Take a look at ArtStation. Filled with AI generated images. It does not longer need real human beings that created this platform. Their works are not needed anymore because their data was used as AI input and made them obsolete. I don't think it's even fair use (= you take ie. apple laptop design, and being inspired by this heavily, you design something different hmm a table for example ;) )
That’s how it is at my job. Can’t use Copilot because there is no guarantee that our proprietary code and trade secrets won’t show up in someone else’s IDE as a recommendation. You’re the first person other than myself that I’ve seen bring this up.
Which in my experience Copilot sucks anyways. I’d much rather have Intellisense.
>Who will write new programming languages if we will be reduced ? :)
there are literally only thousands of people who develop new PLs, frameworks, etc...
Perhaps the conventional programming languages will be replaced by a uniform pseudo-language (similar to the universal language English), in which it will then only be indicated whether an individual part of a program is implemented procedurally, functionally or object-oriented. Even a justification in relation to the efficiency or the error susceptibility could be indicated there if desired. Then it is no longer necessary to decide whether Fortran or Java should be used.
Much more interesting, however, will be the point at which ChatGPT can reverse engineer machine code, including good documentation, so that no company will even attempt to produce closed source software. I therefore assume that in a few years only open source software will be relevant, because it also has the advantage that it can be improved by a worldwide community.
This will certainly lead to other business models, i.e. not so much software as a service in general, but artificial intelligence as a service in particular. This trend can be seen very well in the form of all kinds of providers of AI software, especially since the appearance of ChatGPT. But one day there will also be artificial intelligence that improves itself on the home computer. To properly classify this possibility, one only has to take a look at Alpaca AI.
You hit the nail on the head when u said:
"It's not that AI is taking programmers jobs. AI is taking literally whole (tech)industry and becoming the owner of it. "
I'm a full time senior dev and Chat GPT is not only assisting me in my current role, but it is also allowing me to rapidly develop side projects that I didn't dream of working on a couple of months ago let alone last year. Integrating it as part of a codebase or a workflow is the last missing piece before everything clicks in to place.
Most of my time is now is already spent ensuring that ChatGPT's code and suggestions are correct instead of actually writing code in the first place.
Would you mind sharing how you're interfacing with ChatGPT when programming? Are you providing file or project context somehow?
@@jamesmussett Thanks so much for the thoughtful response. Currently, I'm searching around to see how to train a model with the context of typical design patterns / and component structures that our company commonly uses.
@@rickyj1 One good approach is to specify best practices as part of the application you're trying to describe. Unfortunately it's ability to retain that on top of all the other context you're trying to give it can be a bit limiting.
my friend is a coder as well, he also has same experience, his job became to read code and edit them instead of writing them. speeds up his job by a lot.
@@kainickname I'm not one to say this kind of thing lightly. But this is probably the worse moment to start a CS degree. What you're going to learn is probably going to be not only outdated, but of very little value by graduation date.
I even hesitate to write this. Please get other perspectives and don't put too much weight into this old developer's views
You have great insight. I’m a systems development manager and work with a team of 4. I think you’re absolutely right on this but looking at the rate of rollout and integration I think this may happen sooner than 5 years. I feel for those completing their degrees looking to enter their first position as a junior dev. The landscape is going to change very quickly. Not sure what I think about what my job might become. I foresee spending a lot of time in Devops! One thing I hope is that the interface will be different for us with less of a need to sit at a desk and instead of just filling the time producing more code and features, it will require fewer hours and give back more time to people who work in this industry. Utopian I know but the focus on wellbeing is changing how companies look after employees, for the better. awesome videos, keep them coming!
I think companies will have the chance(and need) to start experimenting more. And with the help of ai this will become significantly less expensive and time consuming. This could be one way to still provide job opportunities for sw devs. while increasing competitiveness. Could also be just a lot of cope from my side though ^^
*"...it will require fewer hours and give back time"* lmaooo. It will translate to less hiring, firings, and layoffs. Only management and owners win.
I think we've forgotten something major in all this. There's a huge portion of the IT market that exists just to put bums on seats. They actively endorse tech frameworks that require more programmers they can hire out. They will probably fight tooth and nail against this until more AI experts are required than the programmers it was set to erase.
A.I. will manage A.I. Won't need human bums. Super A.I. will manage entire corporations. It's over.
This was such a great video relaying what's going on. Pretty refreshing when so many other sources of information seem to be in one camp or the other.
The joys of higher unemployment and lower wages await us all. I think the technology will make a few people very rich, and lot of people very poor. It's all very well painting a picture of progress, but I'd argue it isn't progress if everyone is on minimum wage and struggling to find a purpose in life. The only thing AI truly achieves is putting opportunity and wealth into the hands of an even smaller group of people. No other technology has ever existed which has the potential to replace so many working people in such a short space of time. Comparing a printing press to AI is like comparing a bullet to a nuclear bomb. We're charging head first into an economic melt down and a dystopia.
I could not possibly agree with you more. The “haves” are continuously finding ways to seal off any exits that may have been available to the “have nots”.
If it wasn't for autist soyboy morons like Lex Fridman we wouldn't be going down this path. When you're oblivious to the realities of human nature it's easy to have some peachy view of a future where we all get to live in luxury and paint pictures, play video games or make music all day because AI is doing all the real work for us. The reality is like you said, mass slavery and a 1984 type situation. The only solution we're going to have is violent uprising, so get yourself ready for that physically and mentally because it is absolutely coming.
I sadly agree with that...Let's not forget that many countries are already predicting a very bad scenario for the elderly people of the next 20-30 years
Feudalism could make a comeback. A new kind of AI driven Feudalism. Very few people who will control all the ressources and assets... and dictate the lives of billions of people on this planet.
@@Selendeki I don't know about the extermination part, they couldn't do it without the army, and I can't see the army jumping on board.
Other than that I 100% share your pessimism.
I fully agree that there will be less people writing code in the future. Another option would be that the same amount of Software Engineers write 10x more code, thereby solving problems. I guess it depends on the market demand for software and how companies actually use AI in the process.
Hi Forrest, you are right, I did start learning Python a week ago and web development and like it too much to stop only because there wil be less jobs, it is a bit scary but at the same time so full of excitement.
We will adapt, we will have to. AI is going nowhere .Kind regards
I think the main thing that will prevent companies from fully leaning into AI generated code stuff is not wanting to leak their code/processes/etc to some service in the cloud. So does that mean that some of the larger companies will run on prem/private cloud versions of these AI assistants? Maybe. Or Open AI could introduce some single tenant paid offering to allow the company singular access to that instance. We're definitely standing on the precipice of very interesting changes.
'Software App Administrator'. That may be a new job: an AI writes code, a senior dev makes sure it does what it's supposed to and reports to a board during a boring meeting with money people. I think you're on something Forrest. thanks for this video :)
Bye bye Juniors Devs!
yeah because the companies put their code in the internet.
@@RayMatador These people clearly don't work in the industry yet
I completely agree with your predictions,the job market will be interesting though and less people will be wanting to be programmers unless necessary,just like how not every one wants to be a farmer
Starting of programming was fun for me because you were constantly learning but after decades of programming everything just started to seem routine. Many problems have already been solved these days where we are just using various different libraries instead of having to create them.
I partially agree with you. I dont think programmers will ever become "project managers" only, because there are a lot of problems that require a lot more work than just writing code: perhaps you need to implemment a complex algorithm to ensure efficiency, or you have to use math to solve it and then code your answer. Thats why i think that until TRUE AGI is created there will be a need for programmers (and honestly, if AGI is created, then it will be capable of replacing EVERY job) and i dont see us doing it, at least for the next 20 years. But i do think that there will be a higher skill barrier: if a company needed 10 software engineers to perform a task, now it only needs 3 REALLY good ones to do it.
I have been thinking about this a lot as well and come to the same conclusion. There will still be a need for software developers but the job will be different and focus more on the high level overall problem, architecture, etc. Someone will need to write the tasks in Jira with the descriptions and possibly unit tests and let the AI try until it gets the tests to pass. Probably the developer role will look more like an automation engineer role or devops. There is still going to be value in knowing how to write code because at some point someone may need to open the hood and take a look at the engine. Anyway, I don't think getting your CS degree is a waste of time. You will need to get comfortable with change and embrace new technology. Your day to day will just be a little different than you had envisioned.
finally someone says it out loud. Junior devs will be hurt. For almost every profession there will be VERY FEW entry-level jobs.
HOW DOES ANYONE GET STARTED!?!?!
you have to go from Zero to Hero before the job interview.
Great post I’m an SE about to start my Bachelors in software development and I believe there will be a need for the next 10 years for Devs and possibly after that!! Prompt Engineer is going to be a new job title
I would push those dates a lot. Real websites (i.e - not simple marketing real-only sites, but those that have a login) are very complicated systems made from many projects in different languages spanning millions of confusing poorly written uncommented code. I have seen many large projects that were written over a decade by different people and different ideas and so many patches over patches that there is no way an AI could understand it better than all the people who made that mass in the next 5 years. Also, until I see an AI create and maintain a real live codebase doing fixes and additions to it I will not believe we are even close. So don't lose hope all the people who learn CS today, you will have time to become a senior engineer in this decade. But in the long term, you may be right - with cloud-based hosting and very smart AI, this could make many of the current programming jobs obsolete.
If AI puts us devs out of business in a few years then everyone's job will be automated out
This has been a topic for some times now, and people didn't care as much until now because we didn't have something like GTP 4 in place for anyone to access. That being said, there will always be a need for programmers, or at least people who can read and understand code. I agree with everything you said, only thing I would say differently is that it will take 15 years for our industry to change drastically in comparison to now.
I feel like cybersecurity personnel will be the least affected in the long run but hard to predict anything at this point. The AI has to fuck up once for it to be considered unreliable and let humans continue their work, and I believe it will fuck up at some point in some way, at least for now.
That's a good point of view there. I appreciate you sharing. Yea, I have always had an interest in AI, it was even my emphasis in my CS degree, but never really worried much about it. Again, I always thought programmers were good until I really started digging deep and thinking about it more logically in exactly _how_ it could do our jobs. Now that it's knocking on our door, it's hard to ignore.
@@fknight I feel like if they can take over our jobs, they could take over most jobs as well. I can't think of 1 field where AI couldn't do a good job honestly.
Which area of IT do you think will be less affected by AI?
It will take much more than 15 years. You still have a human in the middle with its limitations And you still have a greed of human on top of all of this. Money drives the world and AI.
If we look at our industry we can see that there is a lot of attempt to accelerate the process of application / website creation. The goal have always been to be less dependant on the developer. CMS was here for that up to LowCode / NoCode tools and now AI. And what happen ? Finally we just see more people making more projects. We could see more non technical people making app more easily or dev making apps quicker (and then more apps). So, on one side I think we will see the same kind of move in the short / mid term. In the long term it's hard to guess but clearly industry will be impacted. Number of jobs vs new kind of jobs (like you said like an AI Pilot for QA or AI Pilot for code review). I can't say if it will be positive or negative. And at last I agree that AI could take every job BUT there is one thing I think we miss. If AI take all job meaning all of us will have no money. But who will buy the product that AI make (because they make it for a company right) ? There is a non sense on the economic side but I stop here my answer is really too long and could open another all debate, sorry
@@VinyTube974 yeah long term impact of AI is pretty difficult to predict but going forward income inequality can be a problem
I suspect you're spot on, I'm a PhD student doing simulation software development in c++, I didn't even know how to code when I started, I only just about understand the basics and can just barely handle & and * references with some guesswork. But already with GPT3.5 I started to be able to code at a decent level as I understand the over all thing I'm trying to do, that basically let me work 10+ times faster (not an exaggeration), now GPT4 is speeding that up even further. And most importantly I always have someone (gpt) to ask when I run in to issues, and that's invaluable.
next door sales person is also doing same. asking GPT and getting things automated.
I feel like the software developing sphere of getting paid a lot for doing a not so difficult job was bloated since a long time ago and something like this was bound to happen to burst it. Of course, I only mean the coding aspect, not all the other stages of the process like designing and planning which I feel will still be essential even if code is automatized. Instead of being scared, I think we should start to learn these new tools and see how can we add them to our workflow. Like ForrestKnight said, people will still need someone who knows about software to take care of it, it's just that now we don't have to concentrate our efforts in typing stuff mechanically. Also, someone has to take care of the physical devices, security, networking, low-level stuff, etc, and I don't feel like that will be automatized (at least not completely in a long while, in case something goes wrong)
"Not so difficult" job, hmm have you tried creating a whole software/website from scratch end to end. Understanding all the requirements and building a working software in the end. Coding is the hardest part of creating a software. If you don't think so then you have probably never worked as a programmer
We were saying the same about self driving systems. But the edge mistakes we see now in chat gpt and the rest, may be more difficult to fix than he assumes.
I suspect you are right. There are two things to keep in mind. Firstly - AI does not scale like people think - the curve is not exponential, it's logarithmic. Secondly - AI is not good at solving novel problems. Because it does not actually understand anything about what it is doing. So in my work today, I was creating part of a terrain system for a game engine. ChatGPT could not solve a bug I found. It would not be able to code any of the underlying architecture or systems required to make this work. And I cannot see it getting there any time soon. AI does not know what gameplay means, it does not understand what feels good or fun to play. And this problem is not unique to games. The issue is the same as the art generators that put extra legs or fingers on people.. The reason that happens is because the AI does not know the purpose of a finger. So when faced with a novel request, it will get things wrong.
Well a bug is not the same as a person life.
Self drive has infinite complexity and randomness of people's behaviour to deal with..the environment is too plastic and the stakes too high for two tons of metal to be controlled safely.
This is being mitigated by changes to road layouts and speed limits/pedestrian rules.
They are making the environment more predictable to suit the sdv.
Still..we don't have roll out of autonomous trains, and the rail environment is way more predictable than city streets.
Whole lotta risk.
Were you using GPT3.5 or 4?
Regulation red tape will be far less obstructive to generative AI than self driving cars since misinformation is not seen as bad as vehicular homicide.
For the people studying CS, hopefully this puts you at rest. As the future is un-predictable anyway, you should definitely continue
to study what you enjoy studying. There are also many students who enjoy studying philosophy or ancient oriental languages, although there are almost no "jobs" out there for philosophers or for people who can read Ancient Assyrian. But surely also they will find their place in life --- somehow, somewhere --- after they have studied what they have enjoyed.
It also helps to view the so-called "Computer Science" as a broader Methodology of systematic logical problem-solving. Edsger Dijkstra once famously said: "Calling our science >Computer Science< is like
calling medical surgery >Knife Science
with informatics it's feels the same:
the science of processing data for storage and retrieval; information science.
to the whole knife computer science arg which's nice but using even informatika (as we call it here) is not the answer i belive
This is cool. Thanks!
I’ll stop reading the comments here, thanks dude for expressing that, amazing analogy, the reality is that people focus on money more than their passion, but people who makes more money were always the ones focusing on their passion
@@andrebatista8501to some extent, it is good to pursue your passion.. but not in an irresponsible manner. You need to find a way to make a living / support your future family. Please, be realistic before dropping out of school to try and be a famous rockstar or something. For every 1 that you will tell me succeeded, there are 500,000 more who tried it and now are homeless bums smoking cigarettes and doing drugs
I chose to major in CS for the last three years because I thought it would lead to a well-paid job. I don’t hate it, but it’s not my passion either. There are other things I enjoy more than CS, but I picked this field because of the money. Now I’m sad because it seems like it will be replaced soon.
I'm really grateful for this video it changed my perspectives👏
damn, i was about to start learning web development, but when i watched a lot of videos like this I had doubts about this. I'm like really stuck, i have no idea what i want to do, what profession to choose, i don't even know what i like
If all you wanted to build were websites you were already screwed by the no-code web development tools. If you want to build web apps, there's hundreds of ways out there, and still some demand for a lot of them. I think web framework and tech stack development will have to stagnate or solidify to a standard in order for AI to have a solid base to produce practical work, but I don't see that happening as everyone and their dog thinks they can build a better framework....Including me.
Love your succinct explanation of the future of AI in software engineering field.
I have been programming for many years now and Chat-GPT had me really worried about all the software jobs that it was going to make obsolete.
But for the first time, I think the way you explained the practical implementation of it in a actual sprint cycle and the how a new joiner learns the code base from it, forms a very realistic picture of the future that I can envision 5 years from now.
The entire software development process involves not only techniv skills but also a ton of collaboration between multiple parties. It feels like the automation of software development is going to be one of the last things to happen. If it does happen It would logically follow that everything else is going to be automated at that point.
yeah i doubt it would actually happen tbh. coding is still a really complicated job and AI is not even bugfree and perfect
This makes the most sense
How do you automate a roughneck on an oil platform? Or even the engineers? Maybe with those Atlas robots at some point - but that’s in the far future.
@@mithrandirthegrey7644The intelligence needed for a machine to complete a task like that is pretty much there already, the bottleneck is our robotics, but a breakthrough in that field can happen at any point, maybe even sooner than later thanks to AI.
@@Settiis No shit Sherlock?
At 1st, I believe you're correct. There will eventually be less need for developers at around 3-5 years. After 5-10 years, there will eventually be less need for project managers that monitor those processes.
The difference in comparing tractors or kiosks is that those cannot reproduce themselves. This CAN (eventually). It can literally take on new info and learn and eventually create a better version of itself. There is really no comparison other than human beings. We are in unknown territory here.
By this time it doesn’t there is no need for software engineers. I think there are going to be plenty good jobs but in AI ! For example in AI security.
One of google’s AI already gave birth lol
@@geelws8880 😂😂😂
Thankfully project management is sector agnostic
I'm currently working with poor database (as an intern) which makes me wonder if the age of AI will not introduce really flawed design as well as security risks.
One of my "database" class was honestly closer to a math class and I'm really hoping to learn more in the future as there's probably a lot I don't see yet.
Though it really opened my eyes. For that reason I am not too scared.
The truth is anyone can code these days. AI or not, WYSIWYG tools have been developing steadily. Frameworks and serverless are already abstracring all the details. To me, coding was already long dead.
We are simply lowering the barrier to entry even more which means there's gonna so many more people not knowing the heck they're doing.
Clearly that means there's gonna be so many opportunities when it comes to assessing designs as well as mitigating vulnerabilities left by a lack of knowledge of the nitty gritty.
I consider AI is the opportunity to focus on modeling more.
I’m just getting started in to the world of software engineering, after having been a machinist for the better part of a decade. And I can tell you first hand in that field there is advancements with programming and cnc machines that easily replace more skilled machinists at repetitive tasks and all it really takes is someone to push the cycle start button after having set off offsets and the cad person having drawn and programmed it through a cad/master cam software that writes the programs. So it’s not far fetched to believe at some point down the road like you said Forest that even software developers/engineers will be replaced or at least down sized but that is the way the world is going towards is A.I being the main driving force behind things. I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point A.I takes over 60% to 70% of jobs out there due to its efficiency and less error compared to what humans can do at least when it evolves to that level and point
I'm fascinated and terrified of this. I only had 1 year of professional web development experience before I got laid off. I've been looking for another job since then and that was a year ago. I gave everything I had to learn programming so I could make more money and build cool things but I'm struggling so bad right now and it sounds like it's only gonna get worse for someone like me
Ouch. I’m a cs student about to graduate. Things are getting a little unsure out here
You've been looking for a job for a year even though you have experience??? WTF? Where are you from?
@@flashlightwashcloth7283 A LITTLE?
if you want to success in the field, you must learn "how to learn" not a specific technology like js, c++ or whatever. By having the "programmer's brain" into you, you'll focus more on how to achieve a result / solve a problem than worry if your coding language will become obsolete.
So no worries, we'll need devs.
@@MrArk4n yeah everyone can adapt so easily and we're all gifted with high IQ programming skills and cant wait to join another rate race of integrating with ai.
So exiciting!
I just love the sneaky sponsor ads in between the content mixed with YT ads
I have a bachelor in a foreign language and was going to combine it with another degree in CS/programming this autumn (Europe). Now I’m wondering if I should apply for other fields instead:(
I'm still going through my CS degree and pursuing a promising career in the industry and to me. Yes, it will make things like getting a job much more complicated than it already is, but I don't see a point in worrying and freaking out about it. it will happen with or without me whether I like it or not. so to me, I see it as an interesting challenge to overcome just like every challenge I had to overcome to get where I am today, and I choose to welcome it
im in my 3rd week of my cs degree and seeing all this stuff has got me worried !
@@hartlessforever I was going to do a cs degree this upcoming fall but now i'm most likely switching to something else. I think forest saying "but this is just my opinion" is like a fallback . I think he knows that there will be no new wave of jr devs. It's like a self fulfilling prophecy. People are scared of ai taking their cs related jobs so they don't go into cs which in turn makes ai more useful because there will be less people trying to break into the scene. It's really like something out of a movie. These people who spend billions of dollars furthering this ai thing are not thinking about life after their lifetime. If you could travel back in time to even 2000, and show someone whats going on now I think they would be so horrified and scared. I know I would
@@nevanncopeland8093 I absolutely respect your decision but honestly, i’m going to push full force. I’m going to take all of this as a plus, because no matter what there will still be a need for developers and designers at the end of the day. If there’s less and less people trying to break in, that just means there’s less competition. I’m definitely all in if that’s the case. I’m not going to let this AI scare me away from doing what I want to do, Im just going to learn how to leverage it to the best of my ability and hope it all works out in the end.
@@nevanncopeland8093 just be aware... there are no jobs AI will not impact over the next twenty years. I wouldn't sweat it.
@@hartlessforeverthanks bro, am Kenyan , full stack web developer, WordPress developer too, you gave me hope😂, always dreamt of going overseas, but with ai, my hopes had started fading abit
It is scary because these ai tools keep on learning,so i am not sure if it is possible to be 100% sure they won't take even the senior dev jobs
Who’s going to prompt the ai?
It will take on. Maybe the only role humans will play is to be accountable for approving some changes the ai generates.
@@TheRealDTVbusiness people, or stakeholders that request things to the IT teams now.
There's so much more than coding. AI can generate code, ok, but what about the DATA? A lot of logic exists in the DB layer as well. Most projects harmonize several technologies in order to satisfy a feature. It's hard to say that AI will be aware to handle all these things. Just my thoughts.
@@tygerovi I watched another video recently, in that this GPT4 did manage to harmonize technologies, maybe it's unaware of few tools at the moment but its constantly learning at a rapid pace everyday. Also this new development of Image recognition, audio recognition is just a stepping stone for the AI learning curve, with the initial trial run it showed marvelous results, It even automatically picks up the "context" of a local meme that only my community can relate to. Knowing this capability i was stunned and couldn't believe what it just witnessed. Imagine the future where you can live share your screen and talk to AI about your requirements. Maybe the solution it provides will not be perfect but it can always learn and rectify the mistake in a unseen fashion.
Those are good arguments. The only question, which I'd like to see addressed is will the demand for software also increase. For example in construction the numbers didn't drop, although we have a lot more leverage.
I’m curious what the end the optimization will be like in the far, but not that far future. As we progress as a civilization, as stated, we will automate everything that we essentially find to take more effort than necessary, and that is a floating definition. What will the fully automated production world look like and what role would people play in it besides consumption? Some could say follow more abstract aspirations or develop higher quality of life once productivity isn’t monetized -but as we’re seeing now, the creative arts for example are not outside the grasp of automation either, with similar feedback from consumers as with “organic” art AI art is entering the landscape of creativity which could be distilled into an algorithm itself. So all that would be conceivably left would be exploration and discovery because everything we come up with ourselves we’d also find a way to automate. but again as scientists humans would want to
/produce/ knowledge, and thus make models of the world and the models can only get better until they describe everything conceivable, and that is also an automate-able optimization. Unless there comes a limit on automation what would become of what we know of ourselves today?
But then too we only optimize to solve our problems so I guess it wouldn’t be that linear. Maybe it won’t even be a problem through our own adaptation. Even so, the rate of progression to optimization throughout history has been a steady climb driven by the same idea of cutting out the necessity of labor. So what will we /want/ to do is the question?
Many computer science majors who aim to be software engineers don't think they will need classes like math and physics, and just do the minimum in those subjects. But mastering these more foundational subjects put you in a better position to become an innovator when the industry goes through changes.
Ai is good at mastering these thing too.
@@backfischritter I meant proof-based thinking and problem solving , rather than plug and chug into equations (that computers already do without AI). Two things I'll say are: (1) current AI models are not good at these tasks, and (2) the point of a proof or problem analysis is to convince yourself and others that a conclusion is correct, and because AI spits things out that resemble correct responses but has no logical thought process to check through them, it's poorly suited for these tasks in the long term too. Coding works because code that performs the right function is an objective to train (coding is more like solving equations).
Non-compsci here, how are maths and physics related to software engineering ?
@@user-jy5qm8nc9m I don't have any relation to Robotics(yet) but for example if you want to program a robot to move it's hands, you need to understand linear algebra to make the robot know what movement you want it to make, understand physics to calculate how things will actually work depending on the Robot's body and environment, there are also calculus functions used in these calculations, of course you could use pre written code by someone else but if you wanted to write your own code, you got to understand these things.
@@user-jy5qm8nc9m I design and write software for biomed machines at work. In order to achieve the product's goal, I have to design & implement coded solutions that work around physics concepts like light diffraction, thermodynamics, and electromagnetics. If I were not knowledgeable in these areas, I would end up writing code that would result in the product's catastrophic failure (badly interpreted sensor readings, melting parts, EM noise issues, etc).
I am graduate student in bioinformatics and a lot of my cohort have been worried about this. I definitely have the same sentiment as you, that AI will only make our lives easier. I look at it as a calculator, a tool. At the end of the day, there needs to be someone to provide the analysis.
for sure, but imagine this, all the human developers who used to be part of building the software will not have jobs. only those qualified to be good analysts will have jobs. the other take is we can hope that all the lost developer positions can be replaced by even more (new analyst positions), which at this point is uncertain.
@@servanttoson agreed. Can definitely see that as a likely outcome
What’s your opinion about bioinformatics?
ChatGPT is already capable of answering many analysis type of questions. Imagine in the future, when the CEO wants to know how to reduce cost in business, all they need to do is to ask AI the question. As the AI has access to data for all aspects of the business, it is totally imaginable that AI can give sound recommendations based on rounded analysis. However, there will still be a need for workers to verify and implement those recommendations. At least in the near future, fully intelligent robots will not become a thing.
And staff and salaries will be seriously reduced. That’s a given. Financial software has replaced many.
I asked chatgpt to write me simple code in c++. The code was not that complex and it failed to complete that multiple times. Rust the same thing. The coding example starts off quite well but it does not complete it
Imagine creating a new language using the ai ... He would not know how to code in that language if we don't do any code :3 .
TBH I truly Believe that the selles of this Technologies are selling a tool using some smoke , some real things ...
At some Point this is social media
what you say, there still will be requirement managers and user researchers, designers, business analysts and product managers and QA engineers to check if everything works as intended. Developers may choose some of those jobs as almost every small business will want to have own custom software as it will be 10x cheaper to write.
can we do a masters in data science after
bachelors accounting finance minor in business data analytics
or is business data analytics better
idk what tf to study lmao
Connecting our jira, gitlab and gpt4 was the first idea that came to my mind when I tried it out. I think we are in for a wild ride
Not knowing how to read code relying on AI, can turn into a situation like kids these days not being able to read cursive writing. I think this alarm in the tech industry will dismay many people from learning to code seeking other industries making coders more valuable in the long run.
Interesting perspective but what is the value of learning to read cursive and why would I be more valuable if I did?
This analogy, like yourself, is outdated and pretty much pointless.
Cope
@@Squidward558 he is just coping, all the people that worked their asses off to be a coder are getting replaced, only the people that can properly mix codes and make it run the right way will exist, and the rest of the AI will do it for you.
@@tonyazzaro9593 whatever old lady
I feel as if our future generations won't be coding manually as we do, but rather at incredible speeds with the use of language models or something far more powerful
Yeah, because they won’t be coding..
I’m an application support specialist. Our software uses ai in it but the big part of my job is customization and understanding how to implement different integration and error. Dev team might get less and less. There is always going to be tech jobs there just going to be hardware and administration jobs
As you said; it's actually an age old problem. Manual labor gets automated and requires less and less human workforce. The thing we forget: such technologies should actually replace our work hours in such a way that we have more time for the complex tasks of life. What they now do is replace our work but also our income, which basically means game over in capitalism. In general i would assume that AI will mostly empower an even smaller group of people, at least in the long run after "we plebs played enough" with AI.
That's the REAL problem, the world becomes controlled by a tiny group of extremely self interested people. THAT's the nightmare everyone should be trembling about. What we need is a _social_ change. This problem is not one technology can solve, it's one that needs social change to solve, because it's about power in a political sense.
@@shimrrashai-rc8fq this
The main problem we will have to deal with in the future is the complete replacement of juniors in all aspects of our lives. I had the opportunity to try the GPT-4, and I am intimidated. It started with my question about German grammar. The AI explained one of the tenses in German to me better and faster than my teacher (who has been a teacher for over 15 years). In my opinion, right now we need to focus on producing managers and developers so that the world economy doesn't collapse so quickly. This reminds me of the Great Depression in most countries, while the poor developed countries survived (as they always did). I think we will destroy each other and the 4th "world war" will be like a dogfight in the dark streets.
Maybe is the inverse, why would you pay a senior if you can have all the deep theory and experiense with AI, controled with a capable "junior" for a fraction of the salary...
@@akazicprod Purely for safety reasons and to improve the customer experience. AI is a tool that should help, not completely destroy the human role. I believe that with AI, companies should improve their service as best they can. This requires a good AI operator who understands everything the AI gives him. Junior doesn't have that knowledge, and little mistakes or mistakes can make a customer not be happy with the service. Perhaps your point of view will be relevant when GPT-8 comes out, but at the moment (even GPT-4) makes small misfires, especially if it is related to the stuffing of the services. (But maybe it's my inner perfectionist who isn't happy.)
Lmao you're clueless.
If you replace all juniors, won’t there be a time when just no one knows how a thing is done?
When an entire generation of college grads can’t get a junior role for example, then all the seniors are gone
@@anthonylin8888 This is what I was actually trying to explain
The track playing in the background is amazing!
I completely agree in near future your just giving ai instruction on how to build software. What’s important is learning the process. Unfortunately less jobs and maybe lower pay good news is it’s easier to be your own boss if you choose that route
So what this taught me is that senior devs will still be necessary. Going to work super-hard to get there then! Thank you. 🙏🏻
I don’t know if I will ever be good enough to become a senior dev. However, even if devs like me are made obsolete by AI some day, I still wouldn’t regret learning how to code bc it significantly improved my learning abilities and problem solving skills which are highly valuable no matter what field/industry you wanna get into.
Always is a strong word.
AI education will eventually reach a point that anyone can become a 'senior dev' for working with AI tools with a 2 month curriculum.
So yeah, it will be there, but it's going to be absurdly competitive.
Yep. And guess what. Senior devs don’t just pop out from the ground. They have to be juniors first. And even if they do take our jobs. Cyber security is pretty interesting, I’ll probably give it a go and try to be a pen tester
GPT-4 can refactor legacy code bases which is a senior level task. Check out Nick Chapsas
that's not gonna be entirely true, lol, that's also a lie seniors tell to comfort themselves, we are all in the same boat son, seniors and juniors alike... what this will boil down to is "Who knows how to use the AI", and from my experience, it's usually the junior devs who are front-facing these technologies, they do the hands on coding, they know what they want, or what they need to do, yeah, the senior dev defines it for them, but they have to go do it hands on, and learn whatever technology needed. Most, I mean MOST senior devs I know are lazy to, they don't even really remember how to use any tech properly now, it'll be juniors rushing to learn how to handle these, anywyays, this is no prediction, just what I think
As a first year CS student this concern and even unknown over job potential is very scary. I currently have a minor in entrepreneurship, but am strongly considering changing it to a double major in case there is a major shift in the market upon graduating.
If you don’t have any junior developers anymore within a certain amount of time you won’t have any senior developers. They don’t magically pop out of the ground.
Ok, sure but now you could make do with hiring just a couple of boots instead of a hundred. So good luck.
Completely agree. These are my thoughts exactly.
I agree with this, also maybe it will be like the time calculator were invented, which led to many companies closing. Before there are companies for calculating using abacus, my wife's grandmother's job was actually that. And according to her, her company went bankrupt 1 year after the calculator went on market. Maybe something like that will happen today.
How do you think this will impact the IT space? Things like network/system admin related tasks? Our job is mostly to utilize tools to increase business efficiency, and if we can use generative code to write scripts or maybe even full on software, what kind of effect would you think that has on that space?
Until AI can figure out how to configure a switch or router i don't think we have to worry much.
@John Dank but it will and by voice
@@ljavierg18 lmao, how?
Keep in mind, what we have now will drastically become different towards the future. It could become a combination of Visual coding (like Unreal's blueprints or Scratch's drag and drop) with something similar to ChatGPT or the other coding AI you mentioned.
Why would they keep humans in the loop it will be unnecessary.
I mean, it will be reduced, but you'll always need juniors in order to have new seniors, at least in the beginning, colleges will need to adapt before the industry can fully erase the junior stage. But I also believe 10 years is what it takes.
yeah, with GPT-4 already rolled out and turned to be much, much more precise and reliable, I just think this would happen quicker than many have thought. I am no-cs engineer, but I used to write simulation for my research and write code for my daily job, and imagined to switch my career to the IT industry. Now with the generative AI announcing the new era, I am also worried how I can get an entry-level job in the industry. Nevertheless, I think there must be a place for me. My goal is to learn how to build software to solve problems. It never says I need to learn how to write every function. We just need to solve the problem, perhaps, I can do that now without really going into the tech industry.
Don’t worry whatever problem you will want to solve AI will do it in a fracture of the time and better.
@@_slickyricky lol so what’s your solution dude
revolution! we will likely need UBI
It is really interesting that a few years ago IT was the most lucrative field and now students as myself are worried about finding work after graduation.
if I can't find a job, cat cafee it is lol
@@kitcat2449 I’m in IT the job market is fierce
I knew I should've been a plumber
@@imanigordon6803 I recently scored a job in Anthology (Edtech industry) and I am really happy about it mostly because I can expand my work experience while studying. I do think it would be really difficult to just graduate and apply for a job with no work experience whatsoever. Also they used FizzBuzz as one of the coding interview questions which was really funny because I watched a video on it from Tom Scott like 2 days later 😀
@@imanigordon6803 maybe in the US, in Europe it is amazing.
I think what people are simply missing is that we are getting closer to AGI (artificial general intelligence), if we reach it, most if not all of humans' skills will be obsolete. This idea sounded crazy to me always, but recently I started feeling that it might become a reality very soon.
You don't need a human any more for doing almost any job with AGI.
The future is very scary and this is not just negativity but rather reality.
I feel for everyone who is feeling down, but nothing is certain and the only thing we can do is keep learning.
Exactly. The historical examples that he gave had pushed the value to cognitive/creative works instead of manual labor. AGI+robotics will make all working areas obsolete or at best the need for human labor will reduce drastically. One of the ways we redistribute wealth today is trough labor/payment but thats gonna not be sustainable in a post AGI society.
It is said Importat thing is to learn, but what should be learned? I am newly self taught someone learning Java, majored in Economics, and don't know what should we do as economics graduate. Finance was already automatized, and now it is sad to see another field (programming) is being restricted.
@@what_app_1619 what do you want to talk about? and how and using what?
How appropriate the bot up there
General ai is no where near. An LLM like gpt does not understand anything. It is just a mathematical model for predicting output.
There is a lot of generalization around this topic. Highly educated and skilled individuals will always have a job, albeit it may change. Jobs requiring physical presence are safe as well, as long as there are no robots to replace them.
You know... I've caught myself getting wrapped up in my pride that I can code and that I think my identity is wrapped up in that some, but I have realized that my ability to code is not what defines me. I am capable of doing different things than coding. I think I've just become kind of complacent over time in my work and I've let coding define me, but coding is not the end all be all. There will be something that comes after coding, which hopefully I'm capable of, and can do to support my family. And then there will be something after that, and after that... We'll keep evolving as humans, and that's okay. It's just about rolling with the punches as they come. But that can be hard.
Thanks for saving me from an existential crises random internet stranger!
That, my friend, is an inspiring attitude. Best of luck, no matter your future path.
well said my friend. Trust in God, our identity is in Him.
Dude that’s my thing too. I am like frantically searching for what I can learn now to identify with since there won’t be code anymore. I need to chill for real.
maybe a future where programming becomes like a niche skill that everyone is taught in school , pretty much the same skill that you have to write an essay on a topic, now you can just ask the ai to make the code and ask it to change it in any way you want. Like you said, basic knowledge is enough and no need to understand the complex processes behind it.
a team of 20 programmer would be reduced to like 2 or 3. Same goes to any other sectors as well.
Seeing some posts on my fb feed about how chat gpt4 made and launched an amazing marketing where it did all content writing and boosting. So a lot of other sectors are gonna change too. Sucks since I am in college studying IT :(
I love this thought process. This is the how people are designed to make anything and everything easier and convenient to use. Everything will get better. So jobs will not be lost just changed to what is desired. So no more programers because AI does it. This opens the possibility of something new. That program already has ideas that are limited, AI opens up the possibility of imagining. Which is a job of open thinking. This is the cornerstone of innovation. Sorry kind of long. This was a really good RUclips. I am subscribing.
I feel the machining field is a great correlation, NC machines came out and was expanded upon by computers, and instead of replacing machinists, machinists had to learn how to operate these computers. They've come out with robots that can load and unload material, software that generates the proper RPM and rate to feed the tool into the material, software that takes CAD drawings or 3D models and convert it to machine code for CNC machines to run, yet we still need machinists to set up, manage, monitor, and maintain these machines.
Edit: Many machinists still learn how to write code manually, even though we have software to generate it, it's nice to be able to read it to catch mistakes before it happens. Caught quite a few myself, this way.
I'm not a professional software developer but I love coding as an hobbyist and the AI taking over the coding job sounds really scary for the most of them out there..😢
IDK about the other AI tools, but if we're talking about just ChatGPT I don't think it'll affect the number of jobs in SE, at least not short term, because someone still has to put that code together and make sure it works on their application or server system. If anything it'll simplify the process of Software Development in that instead of taking 6 hours to do code it takes just 2 hours. That'll give you some more time to learn more skills for the inevitable event your company sees you don't need to work as much and from there they'll cut your pay or cut you loose.
I agree with the fact that the software development workforce will shrink in size over the next decade. Those who remain will work differently then we do today. While most will be directing AI controlled code generators, some will be developing new ideas. At the moment AI still is generally a probabilistic machine, Currently most AI models can only generate code they have seen before, whether in whole or part. So, for a few more years someone will have to be writing code to do new things. At some point in the future however, AI will get better at putting pieces together. The one thing AI wont be able to do for a while is create new ideas with out someone prompting it. When that feature arises, most human jobs will be taken over by AI. This leads to an even bigger question of what do you do with the humans who are replaced by AI? When all these jobs go away, where does the future of humanity go? What do they do? How do they earn an income? Will we all be wards of the state? or will we find a new niche to fill?
I still remember having to cook meals in the kitchen, on the stove or in the oven. No fast food existed and a hand full of dinners and restaurants existed , but only in large cities. Now, everywhere you go you can find fast food! I recall party lines (You had to share a phone line with your neighbors, and could only make calls when they weren't using the phone.), now everyone carries a phone (and what would have been a super computer) in their pockets! So much has changed in my lifetime, I now wonder how it must have been for my grandparents who lived with horse draw wagons and saw the automobile and aircraft come into existence. At my age now, I wonder what life on earth (or wherever humans may live) will be like? The only thing you can count on is change. Soon, no one will remember programming, it will be something you ask your personal computing device to do for you. Just as few people being born today will never learn to drive. I suspect that cars wont even have the ability to be driven by humans soon. I think those younger than I would do well to ponder such changes and prepare for them. Governments, and societies as a whole should to. about every 50 years a huge change in society and human existence occurs. It's time to think about what AI means and how it will change your world!
The type of workflow you are talking about at 12:00 would definitely reduce roles. However, if those workflows are available then SLA between software providers and companies are going to have greatly expanded scope, or highly reduced cost. Not to mention the number of smaller companies who will go back to employing 1 developer who can use all of these tools.
I think the next question is now what do we do? How can we get ahead of this change? I’m seeing a lot of people speculate on the end of software engineering but not many predicting how to get in front of it.
Its not only software engineering though.
I went on retirement, I am 33 yo, I bought 2 apartments and now I live from cash from renting my houses. I donyt have to work anymore. Greetings from Thailand
The only Job that remains for programmers is to create AI's, not unless AI starts creating other AI's😂💀
You can already use ai to build ai projects, soo yeah 😂
AI is already doing that. Just ask ChatGPT if AIs are doing that and it will show you how it is happening.
Google's AlphaGo Zero created its own AIs back in 2017.
Harsh reality..
I've spent a year and some change learning. I was still skeptical / hopeful chatgpt3 wasn't going to affect developing much.
After seeing gpt4 and many vids later I've come to terms that I have to find something else.
one of the main reasons I have a passion for programming is to create my own programs however I want. I dont want an AI to create it however I want.
I wanna be the one to build it from the ground up after all the years I've spent learning programming language syntax and the other neccessary skills needed to code. :(
Artists and Programmers are on a similar boat rn…
However AI was made in the programming field, y’all screwed yourselves up
The inmates are running the asylum. Programmers make the decisions about the tech stack, and always pick the most convoluted mess to prop up their resume. Yes, there will be people that try out AI, just as there are people that try out outsourcing to India or try no-code tools. Then ultimately the problems and limitations of these approaches appear which make them less practical than it would at first seem and then downright unfashionable.
Someone else has made this point but you're just like an artist.
There was a pride in believing your product was a result of your creativity, logic and innovation. Now that is being revoked from you.
I'm in the middle of a CS degree and it feels like exactly like you say in the video. Eventually the boring and repetitive tasks of programming will be replaced by AI, so in a few years time, there will be almost no need for junior devs. BUT, people with decent software development knowledge willing to develop their soft skills, are going to take up positions that require more of a human touch than a programming/analytical touch. Scrum Master positions, project management positions, and any position that also deals with the client side.
to be fair, junior in 2023 = midle 2016. It's just will be harder to get a job
I'm from the utopian future- there are no scrum masters.
first i studied to be a public acountant here in Mexico, finishing the career i started to improve my skills in that area and it was a big fail, there was a lot of people an paper stores an ciber's who make all the work of a public acountant do, and the big companies need ud but they want people with 5 or more years of experience, so i decided to change and study this career CS, in a University, again..... just to realize that this is happening again with mi dreams... man, i really wanna cry
Interesting point you made about AI making coding more accessible, like how languages like Python made programming more accessible. I think it is worth pointing out that this lowering of the barrier-to-entry has historically created more programming jobs, not reduce them. The amount of “programming jobs” available has more to do with demands for computing in the overall economy, and I only see that keep exploding at speeds perhaps even AI can’t match.
Yeah I think you have a point there. Hopefully it does create more jobs than the opposite.
Money printing is what creates more Useless IT jobs. Watch what happens when uncle Sam destroys the economy
The amount of "programming jobs" is dependant on how many customers need programming-stuff done. If the customer can program his own stuff via A.I., there is no need for a programer.
Dont see how this will create more programming jobs.
@@darkforcekiller Sorry, but 1) why would customer even want to do that? 2) they don't even know how technology works. Imagine customer trying to program automated car, next generation of 5G or even a washing machine :D People created Python for comfort and it's still used in a very limited way, because as it turned out every tool has its disadvanatages. We still code in C/C++ despite all this time and all these new inventions.
@@phoearwenien4355 1) Because its cheaper? An A.I. doesnt need to get paid, you know.
2) Not sure what you mean by "They dont know how technology works".
By the way, with customers i mean companies and not some single person.
maybe we could integrate AI into compilers like gcc to produce bugless ultra-optimized binaries for any architecture, maybe with GPT-6 or something.
A universal centralized operating system. How reassuring
@@stevelithium5086 doesn't have to be that way
I think you are correct. I am on the artist side of the AI coin and i think AI is going to allow us to progress much futher. Yes there may be AI that allows you to seemingly complete a project from beginning to end but it will either lack the ability to find tune the results or create a workflow where a human has to fine tune the results to get that professional look and feel. This more true for interactive experiences but i think the industry will just change but not go away. I have shyed away from the programming aspect forever and i have finally decided to try my hand at it since any interactive experience requires some level of programming. Currently AI is a great partner, mentor and an amazing time saver as well. But i have to understand some aspects of scripting to get everything to work seemlessly. I also have to be familiar with some of the terminalogy to try to guide the AI to give me the output that i am looking for. Things are moving fast and i am certain that these AI models will become much more capable sooner than later but i think we are just experiencing a dynamic shift that happens to effect multiple industries at once. It is not goingnto slow down so embrace it an put it to use😊
I have been writing software for 20 years now. I think there may come a time where AI can replace many duties of software engineers but I see that current AI language models while impressive definitely aren't there yet. Chat gpt helps write code faster but if you aren't careful can easily introduce garbage (same with github copilot). There's definitely still the need to check the code written. I also don't see companies quickly switching to a piece of software that reads all their proprietary data in order to write code. Places where language models lack is building software which is a different skill than writing code. Building software we think about the whole system and how people and other systems interact with it. AI can do large chunks of code but don't see it writing or more importantly maintaining existing system's code because gpt llms won't necessarily be able to handle the level of complexity or context needed and compute power isn't unlimited either. There's a lot AI still struggles with. AI could maybe be built eventually that handles those limitations but will probably take more than 5 years is my guess because there's still more hurdles before an AI can do all the work.
AI will never be able to totally eliminate the creative aspects of development. Take a look at WIX since it was used as an example in the video. At best you will get something that looks like everything else and what is more likely is that inexperienced users will create absolute garbage thinking they have saved a few bucks. After a while they will start crying and then outsource a real developer to fix what they messed up. Sure the AI tools will help a real developer be more efficient but the greater likelihood is that the landscape will merely change a bit.
I agree, 5 years is way too fast for a total corporate overhaul nationwide. This video doesn’t take into account how slowly huge corporations change
Holy giga coping. GPT 3 was trained with 1k GPUs. And it already struck fear. GPT 5 is said to be trained on around 200mln+ USD of GPUs. The future is around the corner, the only thing that can save us is an ethics team stopping ai from learning to code due to the emerging properties that AI seems to gain out of the blue.
Thats the exciting part about ChatGPT that people are missing out on.
It automates the soydev faggot shit perfectly.
NO longer do you have to memorize idiotic design techniques that idiots implemented to make code more "readable" or "concise".
You just spam ChatGPT and tell it to code the insignifcant shit however you want.
When it comes to the actual concepts and math and shit, ChatGPT sucks and is unreliable, just as any other person with a general knowledge of a field would be.
Point is how many would be replaced and when cuz there are more people to come into this industry
The more I see how AI is _already_ being used in its current released state, the more I agree; the skills needed are already becoming much more high-level & will continue in that trend at an ever-increasing rate