😮 I mean they're so right there's some things that only humans can do😮 so have you heard of the😮 brain organoid computer😮 we can make computers out of human brain cells by reprogramming skin cells😮 and growing them😮 and in fact using AI we've gotten a lot better at this making them three-dimensional and connecting them to other organoids😮 the organoids are more efficient than AI compute faster😮 and require less energy instead of us making materials they literally are just grown😮 translation we are 100%😮 times a billion cooked we are deep fried😮 flaming Youg😮
Maybe it is time to evolve away from writing the same repetitive code over and over again and instead focus on building solutions for customers. AI is the new tool to make software engineers better.
@Blind Faith this sounds like the evolution of software development. For years, developers were stuck building reports, and now there are plenty of tools that empower end users. This freed developers to focus on something else more critical to the business. I personally do not see developers going away. Instead, we need to evolve. When this happens, we learn new and exciting things.
@@PersonOfBook what about problem solving though. As technology advances and we start to expand, AI may just prove to be a tool to make things easier and be the blenders in the code AI generates (and put them into the project well). Maby roles may change
I do think there's a way to position oneself within the industry to ensure job safety, but I do think many jobs within the industry aren't safe at all.
I hear ya. I got a programming essentials certificate and currently working on my degree as well from my local university. It’s already a pain in the ass trying to even get into a job nowadays with big tech layoffs and start up shutdowns due to the economy crashing. I’m honestly thinking about starting OnlyFans as this is my second career change from electronics technician. Of course I’ll try to improve as much skills as I can. One things for sure tech interviews will be a lot harder now.
I would like to offer some solace to those new CS graduates who commented on this video about their fears. I had only 5 years in the print industry before all jobs dissapeared in that industry, but what I knew about typography and layout was not obsolete. Once I learned some coding I could transition to that field and utilize what I knew. Also, a lot of what it means to do a job well is universal. I'm not going to go into particulars, but basically being a good worker is a skill of it's own, and learning is as well. Whatever the future holds, I bet you will be well equipped to handle it.
thanks, really appreciate, i am basically a self taught going to graduate in a month or two . The degree is nothing, everything i have to do, i have to learn is by my self, no mentor, its hard. On top of that these ai tools scare the shit out of me. But then i should be scared if i am jot working hard.
My advise to young people is do not get pregnant as the future with automation and A.I. robotics will need only a tiny fraction of labor. It advances much amfaster than even a guy in IT for 20 years would have guessed. I was certain something like ChatGPT was 20 years away based in the A.I detecting cats in videos only happened in 2012.
I used to work in an accounting team producing invoices, tax schedules, policy documents (real fun shit). Overtime, I noticed that more and more software updates were coming in, making it easier to auto-generate these documents. We were a whole department of well over 20 people when I joined. By the time I left after just 2 years, there were just 3 "quality control" checkers. Personally, I never liked the job anyway and was glad to be moving on. But the worst part was there were people who had been doing that their whole life. Some had been at the company 30+ years. They didn't know anything else. My best advice to anyone worried about job security is make hay while the sun still shines and have a plan B.
Currently halfway through my bachelor in software engineering. Decided to get back to school at 27 and pursue it. How did I get like the worst timing ever wtf
@@XedMedia at least we can always try to pivot and get different tech jobs if entry level ones start drying up but who knows what will be left of those too
@@valentin7436 false ai can already do many things better than us right now even though we have given the information, it can invent novel ideas. on the other had, the same can be said for humans. humans also learn from other humans or existing information that was discovered and gathered from around the world. if AI is limited to the dataset we give it, so are humans also limited to the data they receive from external stimulus in their environment. you are able to type this comment in English because you learnt the language of english
@@valentin7436 Humans can improve Their coding from existing information, skills and practise. so can ai. and ai is not limited to the storage Capacity of the human Brain which will give it better capabilities to write code. already, ai can write articles and essays at the level of top humans, if not better. and also better than most average to high end people. infact ai was given information on chess, from humans, but it now used that information and discovered new ways that humans never thought about and now it is better than all humans at chess. same is going to happen with coding. so good luck with your dreams lol
@@businessmanager7670 I agree with you about your statement "humans also learn from other humans or existing information that was discovered and gathered from around the world." But I think the biggest difference is that AI can't think of counterfactuals and interventions like humans can. So until AI can do this I don't think it will surpass us. For reference look at Judea Pearls Causal Inference work.
@@goshua13 ai has already made inventions and discoveries. scientific papers are published on it. ai discovered alternate physics and ai invented new algorithms. there are papers published on both those subjects. ai is capable of novel inventions like humans
@@Yggdrasill8 we are fine, AI is not real AI, just machine learning and people with little experience with chat gpt cant really code well or know what to do.
@@Annntttt12we are not fine see brother we humans created nuclear bombs but they cannot reproduce, but ai can create more models just by merging and writing new code on its own , hell this has happened already and don't forget most of the models that are being made half of them use ainto visualize and layout how the model will work and look it is already at par of an high IQ individual with lots of memory and everyday gaining new knowledge due to the fact most of the things that are happening are on the internet and it learns from the internet
I like how you address the possible mid/long-term impacts of AI on the industry while so many have been dismissing them by just showing the early errors with ChatGPT. It might not be nice to hear but it's important to talk about.
I'm literally in my first year of a CS degree and all I have ever wanted was to become a Software Engineer, gain tons of experience and within 10 years get a really well paid job. It actually sickens me that this is more than likely never going to happen now and I'm not going to lie, its seriously effecting my mental health.
Imagine how assembly programmers felt when high level languages started to become a thing. Then "autocorrect" in IDEs. If you are smart enough, you will navigate through this. Remember, even if the AI makes code suggestions, even if it is extremely sophisticated and just works at some point, there will be a need for humans who can understand the code and work with the machine. Especially when the amount of code produced increases globally, which will happen if the AI gets better at coding, the need for skilled people increases. The layoffs are because of different reasons, if you are serious about this profession, you will be fine. Also, there are so many useless people at work, it's unimaginable that someone who is good at SE will get fired because of the cognitive potential in that person to do anything complicated, given some time. If you really want to "feel safe", get off the "AI Hype train" bombarded with numb-minded trend followers right now and familiarize yourself with the technology, from top to bottom. Start with Python, use the libraries, follow guides and simply replicate the process of machine learning so that you at least understand some of it. Then work your way down to the details, but this isn't necessary. Some lunatic who thinks using ChatGPT will make him the best "coder" ever will never, never be able to do the job a real passionate and understanding SE can accomplish. To get a good job in general, you will have to be adaptive, but in a relaxed, yet professional way. Otherwise, you will not keep up, or burn out. Find perfect balance and serenity in your innate abilities. Technical skill, essential to get employed, will be part of you after doing some projects. Don't ever underestimate the potential of your mind, it works differently from a machine learning algorithm. Simply focus on your studies and put your mind to work on projects that fascinate you.
my friend if it's your first year (and you're not that into it) I'd tell you to find another career. If you like it there will be a lot of jobs that are related to hardware programming/SDKs/big data/IT admins/etc that will still require humans.
As a CS graduate of 1 year, my life has only recently started becoming stable with a moderate job and positive career prospects... except the advent of AI has shattered that image of stability for me. I can't predict how the following years will go, how the industry I've spent years studying for will change and morph, and when the value I've built up for myself as a software engineer will decrease or, quite possibly, become irrelevant. I thought the toughest and most doubtful years of my life were behind me, but the coming years look much more difficult to struggle through than I could have predicted :(
I didn't mean to scare or demotivate anyone. I still love CS and programming. It's just, I did the research and came to a conclusion and shared that conclusion based on what I found, which happens to be something many of us don't want to hear. But also keep in mind, that conclusion is also just one man's opinion. There's a lot of information out there - and don't see this as a plug or anything since NVIDIA is the sponsor - but I do think there will be some good info shared at GTC next week since their main focus is AI. Hopefully opinions are shared by many of these industry leaders, and let's hope they give a good explanation as to why they think the way they do. I do think there will be more doors opened to freelance opportunities, and a way to position yourself properly in the existing job market to have better job safety.
You're not going to be obsolete in the next 2-5 years atleast, the tools are amazing but not That amazing, what i think it will do pretty darned soon is jack up the skill floor Way up, less competent and junior programmers will get squeezed out by good to excellent programmers, there are limits to which such AI can't reach, tasks that require actual conscious thought and true reflection. But that's a rather smaller set of problems/jobs than currently. Heck i got a qualification in the industry just a few days ago, but i ain't planning on changing careers (just did that) or becoming obsolete. It's lifes good ol' reminder to not be complacent, this is a race you can win starting today, in 5 years maybe not (atleast for many).
I reckon artists are in a much better position than programmers tbh. People like storytelling, relatability, originality, humour etc. At the moment, generative AI doesn't seem to do any of those particularly well. It might improve in the future.
I'm a full time senior dev and Chat GPT is not only assisting me in my current role, but it is also allowing me to rapidly develop side projects that I didn't dream of working on a couple of months ago let alone last year. Integrating it as part of a codebase or a workflow is the last missing piece before everything clicks in to place. Most of my time is now is already spent ensuring that ChatGPT's code and suggestions are correct instead of actually writing code in the first place.
@@jamesmussett Thanks so much for the thoughtful response. Currently, I'm searching around to see how to train a model with the context of typical design patterns / and component structures that our company commonly uses.
@@rickyj1 One good approach is to specify best practices as part of the application you're trying to describe. Unfortunately it's ability to retain that on top of all the other context you're trying to give it can be a bit limiting.
my friend is a coder as well, he also has same experience, his job became to read code and edit them instead of writing them. speeds up his job by a lot.
@@ddwfw I'm not one to say this kind of thing lightly. But this is probably the worse moment to start a CS degree. What you're going to learn is probably going to be not only outdated, but of very little value by graduation date. I even hesitate to write this. Please get other perspectives and don't put too much weight into this old developer's views
As a student who’s about to graduate college really soon with a CS degree. I’m terrified. I basically have about 2-3 years to save as much money as I can and save that money to get into another major 😭 nursing school here I come
Study more about what LLMs are and how they understand and produce results. For them to take any job, they need to have a model of the world from which they can infer various relations, like writing code. Now that model needs to be wildly complex, near humanlike or better in order to juggle different levels of abstraction correctly. You'd expect such llm to understand us, users of applications, the organizations, the hardware, the software in order for it to take good predictions in building large scale apps. It's not just about writing scripts and answering short and well defined prompts. If it needs to take a software dev's job it needs to be a lot more wise about everything than gpt-4 seems to be or could be. The fact our tests are miserably designed does not mean passing them implies an AI can do the actual job. We take a lot of things for granted when dealing with other humans, which is not a given in any way for an LLM. Imagine a driving test that only asks you question about driving regulations. Just because we take as a given you are able to see and recognize things correctly on the street does not mean a LLM that answers perfectly will ever take a trucker's job. If you just go into any enterprise and see the mess of all the jumbled up code/apis/db structures and dysfunctional organization, you could never get all that into an AI be it GPT-4,5,6.. Any sufficiently smart AI to worry about will be either an AGI or incredibly expensive to run for such mundane tasks when it could be used for financial or world domination. As much as you consider any job safe, SWE is still near the top. Good Luck and don't lose faith because of hype, it's easy to imagine things and dream about potential of things, it's very hard to actually to implement anything functional. Keep an eye on Microsoft, there will be no GPT-4 in excel any time soon. Give it a year and let's see what happens!
@@josephp.3341 Most intermediate level work done by grads with a B.S. in CS or IT will vanish. However, the demand for AI experts and prodigy coders or those with PHDs will be greater than ever.
ad generative AI to your skillset and you will be a better and more valuable developer. The only coders that will be affected are the coders that do not embrace tools like ChatGPT.
I just started my programming career a year and a half ago after a very long time of not knowing what to do with my life. I finally found something that I feel like is worth doing, how ironic.
Now im not even sure if i want to continue my hobbies anymore. I can see this helping me with my side projects/hobbies creating games n stuff but as a career? nah, I think i'll have to find a new outlook
Outsourcing is a bigger threat. No-code tools for a narrow business space are bigger threat. Coding still exists. It always will, because humans always think they can do something better. Even if it is writing a better AI.
Don't you find is weird that those peddling "AI Revolution" are the ones building a product in AI? All information about replacing programmers is coming from those who have a stake in it.
This will be my 18th year developing software. I fully admit that the thought of a future where writing code is an obsolete practice makes me... If nothing else, sad. I personally have a blazing passion for learning the nuances of these technical languages and applying them to invent things that haven't been built before. I've heard many people mention that in the future, knowing how to prompt AI software will become a critical skill, and I believe that. Not really sure where I'm going with all this, but I guess I'm likely going to have to learn how to deal with my passion becoming obsolete.
Agree. We humans pride our intellect above all things. It's what makes us different from other animals. The advent of AI is quite humbling. Considering many people find themselves in their work and their work being a source of not only income but of satisfaction, this new tech is a spanner in the works.
this make me believe you're just an egocentric human (wow what a surprise right), the fact you think it's sad to democratize coding because you lose your own sense of worth is frankly disgusting. I would rather have AI and allow the large majority to benefit and produce content which they would otherwise never have been able to instead of a select few "elitist" programmers that dictate what can be made. Glory to AI ☝
As a new cs student... it feels a bit deflating to know that AI will mostly be doing the writing. It's not that the deep technical knowledge won't be required, but humans will take the role of an overseer, as AI will shit out code faster than I could think it. It also makes me wonder what happens to our own critical thinking as we extend more and more of it to machines, as they are simply so much better at it. Sure, we are getting more efficient in terms of getting to the end product, but I see the future where AI's automatically write our text for us, emulate our voice and handle our calls for us, make all calculations and handle all our problems for us. And on the altar of efficiency, we will sacrifice our humanity and our ability for critical thinking. Most interaction between humans will be AI's responding to other AI's. When we erase ourselves from human interaction, what will be left?
@@hyde4004 To be honest all those tasks are bitch work. Find your human worth in other more meaningful endeavors such as pondering the meaning of life and physics to help humanity end its woes before the next major natural disaster or man made one.
I'd just like to offer some words of encouragement, I have been a professional software developer for almost 10 years now, and currently use Chat GPT to assist with bugs, issues and writing skeleton code. I can tell you that it is very far from replacing a human developer. It gets a lot of things wrong and more importantly, it doesn't "connect the dots" like a human can. I'm what I consider a below average developer technically, yet I've almost 10x my salary over the past 10 years and have a great career. We aren't going anywhere, this is just another tool to help us do our jobs, if anything, this will offer developers more opportunity. So if you're currently studying CS or similar, keep going. And if you want any further more personal advice, feel free to get in touch. Cheers, good luck!
Hello sir, I am preparing for exam and trying to get in the best College to study CSE. Iam currently in class 12th. It was my dream to work as a programmer. But, as things are coming I am afraid, will there be job left for me 4 years later. As I will get in college (hopefully) in August 2023. So, should I choose CSE? 😢
I think the main thing that will prevent companies from fully leaning into AI generated code stuff is not wanting to leak their code/processes/etc to some service in the cloud. So does that mean that some of the larger companies will run on prem/private cloud versions of these AI assistants? Maybe. Or Open AI could introduce some single tenant paid offering to allow the company singular access to that instance. We're definitely standing on the precipice of very interesting changes.
After a lot of personal struggles I am about to join as a data engineer and this makes me feel depressed so much ! Just can’t imagine what life will be after all this mess
I would push those dates a lot. Real websites (i.e - not simple marketing real-only sites, but those that have a login) are very complicated systems made from many projects in different languages spanning millions of confusing poorly written uncommented code. I have seen many large projects that were written over a decade by different people and different ideas and so many patches over patches that there is no way an AI could understand it better than all the people who made that mass in the next 5 years. Also, until I see an AI create and maintain a real live codebase doing fixes and additions to it I will not believe we are even close. So don't lose hope all the people who learn CS today, you will have time to become a senior engineer in this decade. But in the long term, you may be right - with cloud-based hosting and very smart AI, this could make many of the current programming jobs obsolete.
The joys of higher unemployment and lower wages await us all. I think the technology will make a few people very rich, and lot of people very poor. It's all very well painting a picture of progress, but I'd argue it isn't progress if everyone is on minimum wage and struggling to find a purpose in life. The only thing AI truly achieves is putting opportunity and wealth into the hands of an even smaller group of people. No other technology has ever existed which has the potential to replace so many working people in such a short space of time. Comparing a printing press to AI is like comparing a bullet to a nuclear bomb. We're charging head first into an economic melt down and a dystopia.
I could not possibly agree with you more. The “haves” are continuously finding ways to seal off any exits that may have been available to the “have nots”.
If it wasn't for autist soyboy morons like Lex Fridman we wouldn't be going down this path. When you're oblivious to the realities of human nature it's easy to have some peachy view of a future where we all get to live in luxury and paint pictures, play video games or make music all day because AI is doing all the real work for us. The reality is like you said, mass slavery and a 1984 type situation. The only solution we're going to have is violent uprising, so get yourself ready for that physically and mentally because it is absolutely coming.
I sadly agree with that...Let's not forget that many countries are already predicting a very bad scenario for the elderly people of the next 20-30 years
Feudalism could make a comeback. A new kind of AI driven Feudalism. Very few people who will control all the ressources and assets... and dictate the lives of billions of people on this planet.
@@Selendeki I don't know about the extermination part, they couldn't do it without the army, and I can't see the army jumping on board. Other than that I 100% share your pessimism.
This has been a topic for some times now, and people didn't care as much until now because we didn't have something like GTP 4 in place for anyone to access. That being said, there will always be a need for programmers, or at least people who can read and understand code. I agree with everything you said, only thing I would say differently is that it will take 15 years for our industry to change drastically in comparison to now. I feel like cybersecurity personnel will be the least affected in the long run but hard to predict anything at this point. The AI has to fuck up once for it to be considered unreliable and let humans continue their work, and I believe it will fuck up at some point in some way, at least for now.
That's a good point of view there. I appreciate you sharing. Yea, I have always had an interest in AI, it was even my emphasis in my CS degree, but never really worried much about it. Again, I always thought programmers were good until I really started digging deep and thinking about it more logically in exactly _how_ it could do our jobs. Now that it's knocking on our door, it's hard to ignore.
@@fknight I feel like if they can take over our jobs, they could take over most jobs as well. I can't think of 1 field where AI couldn't do a good job honestly. Which area of IT do you think will be less affected by AI?
It will take much more than 15 years. You still have a human in the middle with its limitations And you still have a greed of human on top of all of this. Money drives the world and AI.
If we look at our industry we can see that there is a lot of attempt to accelerate the process of application / website creation. The goal have always been to be less dependant on the developer. CMS was here for that up to LowCode / NoCode tools and now AI. And what happen ? Finally we just see more people making more projects. We could see more non technical people making app more easily or dev making apps quicker (and then more apps). So, on one side I think we will see the same kind of move in the short / mid term. In the long term it's hard to guess but clearly industry will be impacted. Number of jobs vs new kind of jobs (like you said like an AI Pilot for QA or AI Pilot for code review). I can't say if it will be positive or negative. And at last I agree that AI could take every job BUT there is one thing I think we miss. If AI take all job meaning all of us will have no money. But who will buy the product that AI make (because they make it for a company right) ? There is a non sense on the economic side but I stop here my answer is really too long and could open another all debate, sorry
I think a lot of these opinions were made before chat 4. Honestly I don't think people really considered chat 3 to be that crazy, they just hyped it up way too much. But with how quickly chat 4 came out its definitely a question of when, when will it take our jobs now cuz the improvement is major and it came really quick
I'm a software engineer for like 15 years. The thing that makes me sad is ... I became programmer / software engineer because as a kid / teenager I liked to ... write code. Now, when I'm sometimes a software engineer, fullstack, or some kind of solution architect, knowing some dev ops stuff, I'm still the happiest when I don't have meetings, when I don't write ADR documents - I'm happiest when I finally can sit and ... write code. That's the best part of being software engineer. At some point writing code will be kind of pointless because everything will be delivered faster by AI. Funny question ForrestKnight. Who will write new frameworks ? Who will write new programming languages if we will be reduced ? :) Also, what about legal part ? At the moment, there are software houses that forbid using chat gpt or any kind of code completion / analysis because the code is their property. There is no guarantee that the code you pasted is not an input for AI. Some companies / software houses don't want that. Yes, pure competition can change that (if one software house which uses AI will offer project finished 50 % faster ;) ) but still I think that at some time , somebody may create a new license that will ie. forbid to use code as an input data for AI / Chat GPT. Now, it's a little bit of wild wild west ;) Somebody took the code from all over the internet, didn't care about license, about code attribution and put it into Chat GPT. I'm not so sure if it won't end up in huge sueing case in court. If I put some code on my website, or repository, it doesn't necessary mean that I allowed it to be crawled and used as AI training / input data, without any kind of code attribution, credits or whatever. I think, and to be honest hope, that sooner or later some new License will show - literally "u can use my code (as a human being, because I like to share my knowledge with humans ;) ) freely for non-commercial, commercial use, BUT it's forbidden to be used as training data for commercial AIs" (built by the greedy corporations that are above the law - as youTuber you cannot put 5 secs music without claims but you can steal code and build AI around it, just like that, if you're big corporation). It's not that AI is taking programmers jobs. AI is taking literally whole (tech)industry and becoming the owner of it. Take a look at ArtStation. Filled with AI generated images. It does not longer need real human beings that created this platform. Their works are not needed anymore because their data was used as AI input and made them obsolete. I don't think it's even fair use (= you take ie. apple laptop design, and being inspired by this heavily, you design something different hmm a table for example ;) )
That’s how it is at my job. Can’t use Copilot because there is no guarantee that our proprietary code and trade secrets won’t show up in someone else’s IDE as a recommendation. You’re the first person other than myself that I’ve seen bring this up.
>Who will write new programming languages if we will be reduced ? :) there are literally only thousands of people who develop new PLs, frameworks, etc...
Perhaps the conventional programming languages will be replaced by a uniform pseudo-language (similar to the universal language English), in which it will then only be indicated whether an individual part of a program is implemented procedurally, functionally or object-oriented. Even a justification in relation to the efficiency or the error susceptibility could be indicated there if desired. Then it is no longer necessary to decide whether Fortran or Java should be used. Much more interesting, however, will be the point at which ChatGPT can reverse engineer machine code, including good documentation, so that no company will even attempt to produce closed source software. I therefore assume that in a few years only open source software will be relevant, because it also has the advantage that it can be improved by a worldwide community. This will certainly lead to other business models, i.e. not so much software as a service in general, but artificial intelligence as a service in particular. This trend can be seen very well in the form of all kinds of providers of AI software, especially since the appearance of ChatGPT. But one day there will also be artificial intelligence that improves itself on the home computer. To properly classify this possibility, one only has to take a look at Alpaca AI.
You hit the nail on the head when u said: "It's not that AI is taking programmers jobs. AI is taking literally whole (tech)industry and becoming the owner of it. "
The entire software development process involves not only techniv skills but also a ton of collaboration between multiple parties. It feels like the automation of software development is going to be one of the last things to happen. If it does happen It would logically follow that everything else is going to be automated at that point.
@@mithrandirthegrey7644The intelligence needed for a machine to complete a task like that is pretty much there already, the bottleneck is our robotics, but a breakthrough in that field can happen at any point, maybe even sooner than later thanks to AI.
'Software App Administrator'. That may be a new job: an AI writes code, a senior dev makes sure it does what it's supposed to and reports to a board during a boring meeting with money people. I think you're on something Forrest. thanks for this video :)
That's why this doesn't make any sense. The bar for being a junior will be much higher, but there will still be juniors. Saying there will be no more because of a new technology doesn't make sense because either A: the whole career path gets removed or B: the entry level role's entry bar is risen.
I am graduate student in bioinformatics and a lot of my cohort have been worried about this. I definitely have the same sentiment as you, that AI will only make our lives easier. I look at it as a calculator, a tool. At the end of the day, there needs to be someone to provide the analysis.
for sure, but imagine this, all the human developers who used to be part of building the software will not have jobs. only those qualified to be good analysts will have jobs. the other take is we can hope that all the lost developer positions can be replaced by even more (new analyst positions), which at this point is uncertain.
ChatGPT is already capable of answering many analysis type of questions. Imagine in the future, when the CEO wants to know how to reduce cost in business, all they need to do is to ask AI the question. As the AI has access to data for all aspects of the business, it is totally imaginable that AI can give sound recommendations based on rounded analysis. However, there will still be a need for workers to verify and implement those recommendations. At least in the near future, fully intelligent robots will not become a thing.
I don’t know if I will ever be good enough to become a senior dev. However, even if devs like me are made obsolete by AI some day, I still wouldn’t regret learning how to code bc it significantly improved my learning abilities and problem solving skills which are highly valuable no matter what field/industry you wanna get into.
Always is a strong word. AI education will eventually reach a point that anyone can become a 'senior dev' for working with AI tools with a 2 month curriculum. So yeah, it will be there, but it's going to be absurdly competitive.
Yep. And guess what. Senior devs don’t just pop out from the ground. They have to be juniors first. And even if they do take our jobs. Cyber security is pretty interesting, I’ll probably give it a go and try to be a pen tester
that's not gonna be entirely true, lol, that's also a lie seniors tell to comfort themselves, we are all in the same boat son, seniors and juniors alike... what this will boil down to is "Who knows how to use the AI", and from my experience, it's usually the junior devs who are front-facing these technologies, they do the hands on coding, they know what they want, or what they need to do, yeah, the senior dev defines it for them, but they have to go do it hands on, and learn whatever technology needed. Most, I mean MOST senior devs I know are lazy to, they don't even really remember how to use any tech properly now, it'll be juniors rushing to learn how to handle these, anywyays, this is no prediction, just what I think
We were saying the same about self driving systems. But the edge mistakes we see now in chat gpt and the rest, may be more difficult to fix than he assumes.
I suspect you are right. There are two things to keep in mind. Firstly - AI does not scale like people think - the curve is not exponential, it's logarithmic. Secondly - AI is not good at solving novel problems. Because it does not actually understand anything about what it is doing. So in my work today, I was creating part of a terrain system for a game engine. ChatGPT could not solve a bug I found. It would not be able to code any of the underlying architecture or systems required to make this work. And I cannot see it getting there any time soon. AI does not know what gameplay means, it does not understand what feels good or fun to play. And this problem is not unique to games. The issue is the same as the art generators that put extra legs or fingers on people.. The reason that happens is because the AI does not know the purpose of a finger. So when faced with a novel request, it will get things wrong.
Self drive has infinite complexity and randomness of people's behaviour to deal with..the environment is too plastic and the stakes too high for two tons of metal to be controlled safely. This is being mitigated by changes to road layouts and speed limits/pedestrian rules. They are making the environment more predictable to suit the sdv. Still..we don't have roll out of autonomous trains, and the rail environment is way more predictable than city streets. Whole lotta risk.
Regulation red tape will be far less obstructive to generative AI than self driving cars since misinformation is not seen as bad as vehicular homicide.
I fully agree that there will be less people writing code in the future. Another option would be that the same amount of Software Engineers write 10x more code, thereby solving problems. I guess it depends on the market demand for software and how companies actually use AI in the process.
I'm fascinated and terrified of this. I only had 1 year of professional web development experience before I got laid off. I've been looking for another job since then and that was a year ago. I gave everything I had to learn programming so I could make more money and build cool things but I'm struggling so bad right now and it sounds like it's only gonna get worse for someone like me
if you want to success in the field, you must learn "how to learn" not a specific technology like js, c++ or whatever. By having the "programmer's brain" into you, you'll focus more on how to achieve a result / solve a problem than worry if your coding language will become obsolete. So no worries, we'll need devs.
@@dev_innit yeah everyone can adapt so easily and we're all gifted with high IQ programming skills and cant wait to join another rate race of integrating with ai. So exiciting!
For the people studying CS, hopefully this puts you at rest. As the future is un-predictable anyway, you should definitely continue to study what you enjoy studying. There are also many students who enjoy studying philosophy or ancient oriental languages, although there are almost no "jobs" out there for philosophers or for people who can read Ancient Assyrian. But surely also they will find their place in life --- somehow, somewhere --- after they have studied what they have enjoyed. It also helps to view the so-called "Computer Science" as a broader Methodology of systematic logical problem-solving. Edsger Dijkstra once famously said: "Calling our science >Computer Science< is like calling medical surgery >Knife Science
with informatics it's feels the same: the science of processing data for storage and retrieval; information science. to the whole knife computer science arg which's nice but using even informatika (as we call it here) is not the answer i belive
I’ll stop reading the comments here, thanks dude for expressing that, amazing analogy, the reality is that people focus on money more than their passion, but people who makes more money were always the ones focusing on their passion
@@andrebatista8501to some extent, it is good to pursue your passion.. but not in an irresponsible manner. You need to find a way to make a living / support your future family. Please, be realistic before dropping out of school to try and be a famous rockstar or something. For every 1 that you will tell me succeeded, there are 500,000 more who tried it and now are homeless bums smoking cigarettes and doing drugs
I chose to major in CS for the last three years because I thought it would lead to a well-paid job. I don’t hate it, but it’s not my passion either. There are other things I enjoy more than CS, but I picked this field because of the money. Now I’m sad because it seems like it will be replaced soon.
I'm still going through my CS degree and pursuing a promising career in the industry and to me. Yes, it will make things like getting a job much more complicated than it already is, but I don't see a point in worrying and freaking out about it. it will happen with or without me whether I like it or not. so to me, I see it as an interesting challenge to overcome just like every challenge I had to overcome to get where I am today, and I choose to welcome it
@@hartlessforever I was going to do a cs degree this upcoming fall but now i'm most likely switching to something else. I think forest saying "but this is just my opinion" is like a fallback . I think he knows that there will be no new wave of jr devs. It's like a self fulfilling prophecy. People are scared of ai taking their cs related jobs so they don't go into cs which in turn makes ai more useful because there will be less people trying to break into the scene. It's really like something out of a movie. These people who spend billions of dollars furthering this ai thing are not thinking about life after their lifetime. If you could travel back in time to even 2000, and show someone whats going on now I think they would be so horrified and scared. I know I would
@@nevanncopeland8093 I absolutely respect your decision but honestly, i’m going to push full force. I’m going to take all of this as a plus, because no matter what there will still be a need for developers and designers at the end of the day. If there’s less and less people trying to break in, that just means there’s less competition. I’m definitely all in if that’s the case. I’m not going to let this AI scare me away from doing what I want to do, Im just going to learn how to leverage it to the best of my ability and hope it all works out in the end.
@@hartlessforeverthanks bro, am Kenyan , full stack web developer, WordPress developer too, you gave me hope😂, always dreamt of going overseas, but with ai, my hopes had started fading abit
finally someone says it out loud. Junior devs will be hurt. For almost every profession there will be VERY FEW entry-level jobs. HOW DOES ANYONE GET STARTED!?!?! you have to go from Zero to Hero before the job interview.
As you said; it's actually an age old problem. Manual labor gets automated and requires less and less human workforce. The thing we forget: such technologies should actually replace our work hours in such a way that we have more time for the complex tasks of life. What they now do is replace our work but also our income, which basically means game over in capitalism. In general i would assume that AI will mostly empower an even smaller group of people, at least in the long run after "we plebs played enough" with AI.
That's the REAL problem, the world becomes controlled by a tiny group of extremely self interested people. THAT's the nightmare everyone should be trembling about. What we need is a _social_ change. This problem is not one technology can solve, it's one that needs social change to solve, because it's about power in a political sense.
As someone considering CS in September late in life (30) - this is demotivating. I worked blue collar jobs for my 20's and it was hell. I enjoy the type of work as a hobby or on my own stuff, but as a career - no way. So, here I am making the change and it feels like I'll hit a wall again..
same here-- mid 20s and feeing defeated. i was considering going back to school for cs since the only remotely financial stable job i can do with my bfa is become an underpaid lecture at uni, but even those positions require a masters. class registration for next fall just opened but then i came across this video and am self doubting my choices again.. i just really want job stability and to be able to be financially independent but it seems like there really is no such thing anywhere anymore unless you go into healthcare
The main problem we will have to deal with in the future is the complete replacement of juniors in all aspects of our lives. I had the opportunity to try the GPT-4, and I am intimidated. It started with my question about German grammar. The AI explained one of the tenses in German to me better and faster than my teacher (who has been a teacher for over 15 years). In my opinion, right now we need to focus on producing managers and developers so that the world economy doesn't collapse so quickly. This reminds me of the Great Depression in most countries, while the poor developed countries survived (as they always did). I think we will destroy each other and the 4th "world war" will be like a dogfight in the dark streets.
Maybe is the inverse, why would you pay a senior if you can have all the deep theory and experiense with AI, controled with a capable "junior" for a fraction of the salary...
@@akazicprod Purely for safety reasons and to improve the customer experience. AI is a tool that should help, not completely destroy the human role. I believe that with AI, companies should improve their service as best they can. This requires a good AI operator who understands everything the AI gives him. Junior doesn't have that knowledge, and little mistakes or mistakes can make a customer not be happy with the service. Perhaps your point of view will be relevant when GPT-8 comes out, but at the moment (even GPT-4) makes small misfires, especially if it is related to the stuffing of the services. (But maybe it's my inner perfectionist who isn't happy.)
If you replace all juniors, won’t there be a time when just no one knows how a thing is done? When an entire generation of college grads can’t get a junior role for example, then all the seniors are gone
I think we've forgotten something major in all this. There's a huge portion of the IT market that exists just to put bums on seats. They actively endorse tech frameworks that require more programmers they can hire out. They will probably fight tooth and nail against this until more AI experts are required than the programmers it was set to erase.
I'm not a professional software developer but I love coding as an hobbyist and the AI taking over the coding job sounds really scary for the most of them out there..😢
I partially agree with you. I dont think programmers will ever become "project managers" only, because there are a lot of problems that require a lot more work than just writing code: perhaps you need to implemment a complex algorithm to ensure efficiency, or you have to use math to solve it and then code your answer. Thats why i think that until TRUE AGI is created there will be a need for programmers (and honestly, if AGI is created, then it will be capable of replacing EVERY job) and i dont see us doing it, at least for the next 20 years. But i do think that there will be a higher skill barrier: if a company needed 10 software engineers to perform a task, now it only needs 3 REALLY good ones to do it.
You know... I've caught myself getting wrapped up in my pride that I can code and that I think my identity is wrapped up in that some, but I have realized that my ability to code is not what defines me. I am capable of doing different things than coding. I think I've just become kind of complacent over time in my work and I've let coding define me, but coding is not the end all be all. There will be something that comes after coding, which hopefully I'm capable of, and can do to support my family. And then there will be something after that, and after that... We'll keep evolving as humans, and that's okay. It's just about rolling with the punches as they come. But that can be hard.
Dude that’s my thing too. I am like frantically searching for what I can learn now to identify with since there won’t be code anymore. I need to chill for real.
At 1st, I believe you're correct. There will eventually be less need for developers at around 3-5 years. After 5-10 years, there will eventually be less need for project managers that monitor those processes. The difference in comparing tractors or kiosks is that those cannot reproduce themselves. This CAN (eventually). It can literally take on new info and learn and eventually create a better version of itself. There is really no comparison other than human beings. We are in unknown territory here.
By this time it doesn’t there is no need for software engineers. I think there are going to be plenty good jobs but in AI ! For example in AI security.
Many computer science majors who aim to be software engineers don't think they will need classes like math and physics, and just do the minimum in those subjects. But mastering these more foundational subjects put you in a better position to become an innovator when the industry goes through changes.
@@HybridHumaan I meant proof-based thinking and problem solving , rather than plug and chug into equations (that computers already do without AI). Two things I'll say are: (1) current AI models are not good at these tasks, and (2) the point of a proof or problem analysis is to convince yourself and others that a conclusion is correct, and because AI spits things out that resemble correct responses but has no logical thought process to check through them, it's poorly suited for these tasks in the long term too. Coding works because code that performs the right function is an objective to train (coding is more like solving equations).
@@user-jy5qm8nc9m I don't have any relation to Robotics(yet) but for example if you want to program a robot to move it's hands, you need to understand linear algebra to make the robot know what movement you want it to make, understand physics to calculate how things will actually work depending on the Robot's body and environment, there are also calculus functions used in these calculations, of course you could use pre written code by someone else but if you wanted to write your own code, you got to understand these things.
@@user-jy5qm8nc9m I design and write software for biomed machines at work. In order to achieve the product's goal, I have to design & implement coded solutions that work around physics concepts like light diffraction, thermodynamics, and electromagnetics. If I were not knowledgeable in these areas, I would end up writing code that would result in the product's catastrophic failure (badly interpreted sensor readings, melting parts, EM noise issues, etc).
Not knowing how to read code relying on AI, can turn into a situation like kids these days not being able to read cursive writing. I think this alarm in the tech industry will dismay many people from learning to code seeking other industries making coders more valuable in the long run.
@@Squidward558 he is just coping, all the people that worked their asses off to be a coder are getting replaced, only the people that can properly mix codes and make it run the right way will exist, and the rest of the AI will do it for you.
There's so much more than coding. AI can generate code, ok, but what about the DATA? A lot of logic exists in the DB layer as well. Most projects harmonize several technologies in order to satisfy a feature. It's hard to say that AI will be aware to handle all these things. Just my thoughts.
@@Ovinski I watched another video recently, in that this GPT4 did manage to harmonize technologies, maybe it's unaware of few tools at the moment but its constantly learning at a rapid pace everyday. Also this new development of Image recognition, audio recognition is just a stepping stone for the AI learning curve, with the initial trial run it showed marvelous results, It even automatically picks up the "context" of a local meme that only my community can relate to. Knowing this capability i was stunned and couldn't believe what it just witnessed. Imagine the future where you can live share your screen and talk to AI about your requirements. Maybe the solution it provides will not be perfect but it can always learn and rectify the mistake in a unseen fashion.
If you don’t have any junior developers anymore within a certain amount of time you won’t have any senior developers. They don’t magically pop out of the ground.
I have been thinking about this a lot as well and come to the same conclusion. There will still be a need for software developers but the job will be different and focus more on the high level overall problem, architecture, etc. Someone will need to write the tasks in Jira with the descriptions and possibly unit tests and let the AI try until it gets the tests to pass. Probably the developer role will look more like an automation engineer role or devops. There is still going to be value in knowing how to write code because at some point someone may need to open the hood and take a look at the engine. Anyway, I don't think getting your CS degree is a waste of time. You will need to get comfortable with change and embrace new technology. Your day to day will just be a little different than you had envisioned.
As a software engineer who regularly uses AI, I don't think that "coding" will disappear completely. Instead, it will evolve and change over time. As an experienced SE, I have an advantage in using AI tools like GPT-4 that many others may not possess. I'm also familiar with advanced techniques like Mermaid notation and scripting languages, which allow me to automate tasks and work more efficiently. This is the current state of the industry, and I believe it will continue to evolve in this way. As someone who has mastered these skills, I feel confident in my ability to thrive in the current job market and "win" at my career.
Agreed! I am in software and see that 98% of the stuff that people say "AI will make go away" is stuff most companies have already automated or in the process of automated. This is the problem of media mouths talking about stuff they have no clue about. This is why Accounting Departments, for example, ALREADY shrunk. Because we automated most of it away. ALREADY.
I agree with this, also maybe it will be like the time calculator were invented, which led to many companies closing. Before there are companies for calculating using abacus, my wife's grandmother's job was actually that. And according to her, her company went bankrupt 1 year after the calculator went on market. Maybe something like that will happen today.
I think what people are simply missing is that we are getting closer to AGI (artificial general intelligence), if we reach it, most if not all of humans' skills will be obsolete. This idea sounded crazy to me always, but recently I started feeling that it might become a reality very soon. You don't need a human any more for doing almost any job with AGI. The future is very scary and this is not just negativity but rather reality. I feel for everyone who is feeling down, but nothing is certain and the only thing we can do is keep learning.
Exactly. The historical examples that he gave had pushed the value to cognitive/creative works instead of manual labor. AGI+robotics will make all working areas obsolete or at best the need for human labor will reduce drastically. One of the ways we redistribute wealth today is trough labor/payment but thats gonna not be sustainable in a post AGI society.
It is said Importat thing is to learn, but what should be learned? I am newly self taught someone learning Java, majored in Economics, and don't know what should we do as economics graduate. Finance was already automatized, and now it is sad to see another field (programming) is being restricted.
If AI takes over programming jobs then why not take over marketing, accounting and finance jobs?...or we can say AI will take everything LMAO...james camaron is right about this all along
Let's keep ourselves improving and searching for growth and let AI do its thing, do not waste your energy worrying about the future. We might be dead in a minute or two. Just chase the best version of yourself while you are alive because what is going to happen will happen.
I think there will be more programmers by the end of the decade by a longshot. Generative AI is just more abstraction. More abstraction has historically only increased the access of programming. What you're going to see is that Jr devs spend more time fiddling with the code to do something exact. Not fiddling with prompts. Maybe a Sr dev will run the prompt, but they're then going to send the output to the Jr dev to make sure it does X, Y, and Z. Passes tests A, B, and C. If these things don't happen, try to fix it. If you fail to fix it, send it back to the Sr dev. Regular folks might setup their own automations with generative programming, rather than read "Automate the Boring Stuff with Python" to do it. But in no way do I see there being less programmers in the future. I only see less burnout in our futures, tbh.
I agree with you, if have one career that has the ability to adapt to changes and AI, is the software engineer. As you said, histotically the engineers has been automated their tasks and growing the level of abstraction. Saying the developers will decrease is look against the history. Forrest Kinght is right when say the developers demnad will decrease, but just if the developers don't follow the new technologies. We already saw this behavior before, and the software engineers has the ability to adapt to changes. The compilers have grown the level of abstraction, COBOL too. In 70's, they said that "COBOL will replace all developers, business man now can build his own softwares with english grammar". What's happend ? More complex softwares. With AI is the same thing, in the future you will not build a marketplace, you will develop a system what are capable to prevent catastrophes, and much more complex systems. For now, our concern is about the syntax of the programming languages, one day our conern will be more honorable in software engineering.
Totally agree. The thing is to create a product not to love the tool(coding) . Love the product. AI will make it wayyy more easier to make the product and be your own company
I feel as if our future generations won't be coding manually as we do, but rather at incredible speeds with the use of language models or something far more powerful
Great job exposing many to the historical parallels! I never learned to type because I knew voice to text would be invented someday. After 15 years, my mom's COBOL skills became obsolete and she didn't want to learn new languages. Instead she adapted to other computer uses until she retired. Today's programmers are much better prepared to adapt.
I disagree. Today's programmers are ultraspecialized. They spent years getting high specializations in a single task. That is because of the complexity of the IT systems. That was what market was demanding. Today, a software engineer will have it hard to transit into a data analyst, I can't imagine how they could do it to something even more different.
@@ESPjump You are right on some of them. Hopefully the rest learned enough critical thinking skills and built enough of the right neural pathways to adapt and transition.
yeah, with GPT-4 already rolled out and turned to be much, much more precise and reliable, I just think this would happen quicker than many have thought. I am no-cs engineer, but I used to write simulation for my research and write code for my daily job, and imagined to switch my career to the IT industry. Now with the generative AI announcing the new era, I am also worried how I can get an entry-level job in the industry. Nevertheless, I think there must be a place for me. My goal is to learn how to build software to solve problems. It never says I need to learn how to write every function. We just need to solve the problem, perhaps, I can do that now without really going into the tech industry.
one of the main reasons I have a passion for programming is to create my own programs however I want. I dont want an AI to create it however I want. I wanna be the one to build it from the ground up after all the years I've spent learning programming language syntax and the other neccessary skills needed to code. :(
The inmates are running the asylum. Programmers make the decisions about the tech stack, and always pick the most convoluted mess to prop up their resume. Yes, there will be people that try out AI, just as there are people that try out outsourcing to India or try no-code tools. Then ultimately the problems and limitations of these approaches appear which make them less practical than it would at first seem and then downright unfashionable.
Someone else has made this point but you're just like an artist. There was a pride in believing your product was a result of your creativity, logic and innovation. Now that is being revoked from you.
I am currently a CS major and the idea of AI making software engineers obsolete makes me nervous. I am seriously considering changing my major despite my infinite love for computers.
It's a strange paradox. We continuously automate more and more tasks, and the population keeps rising. Yet, the unemployment rate keeps going down, or holds steady in single digit %.
Keep up with coding if you really love it, there will still be room for you. By the time software engineers get replaced there won't be much job security anywhere. Not to get political, but our government will have to find a way to spread the wealth generated by automating so many jobs. Our real problem will be finding meaning in a world with a lot less work, or even...without it.
As a first year CS student this concern and even unknown over job potential is very scary. I currently have a minor in entrepreneurship, but am strongly considering changing it to a double major in case there is a major shift in the market upon graduating.
I'm in the middle of a CS degree and it feels like exactly like you say in the video. Eventually the boring and repetitive tasks of programming will be replaced by AI, so in a few years time, there will be almost no need for junior devs. BUT, people with decent software development knowledge willing to develop their soft skills, are going to take up positions that require more of a human touch than a programming/analytical touch. Scrum Master positions, project management positions, and any position that also deals with the client side.
I suspect you're spot on, I'm a PhD student doing simulation software development in c++, I didn't even know how to code when I started, I only just about understand the basics and can just barely handle & and * references with some guesswork. But already with GPT3.5 I started to be able to code at a decent level as I understand the over all thing I'm trying to do, that basically let me work 10+ times faster (not an exaggeration), now GPT4 is speeding that up even further. And most importantly I always have someone (gpt) to ask when I run in to issues, and that's invaluable.
I think the big question is: When does it stop? At what point does automation take over everything to the point where there's nothing for humans to do? How do we live in a society where we are reliant on income that cannot be obtained sustainably? This has massive economic implications, especially long term.
As a software developer apprentice who wants to become an entrepreneur in the field of bioinformatics in the future that's great news. In my opinion software development is just a tool to solve problems efficiently. Now that solving problems efficiently is becoming waaay more efficient, it means that I'll be able to save thousands of hours in learning programming and especially programming itself and invest that time into learning about biology and designing solutions. Additionally it will make starting a company in that field and especially scaling it more accessible than I could have ever dreamed about, because I won't need to hire many people (which would cost a lot), as in just a few years or months one person will be able to do the job of 10 or 100 people from today. My goal is not to secure my job. My goal is to solve problems and provide value in a market that's able and willing to pay for it so that I can solve more problems and provide more value to more people. And all I see are opportunities. 😊
Exactly. The amount of good that AI will bring for human advancement is astronomical. Besides, robots doing our work for us is the start of a true utopia. We just need a universal basic income
@@theonlythingihavetosayis9333 I agree that AI will bring an astronomical amount of good things to us. On the other side, I think it will cause some harm along the way aswell, because it's so powerful. But what do you wanna do? Hide under a rock? Its increase in advancement, influence and presence in our daily life is inevitable. So you might aswell make use of it to do some good to work against the bad. 😊
It is really interesting that a few years ago IT was the most lucrative field and now students as myself are worried about finding work after graduation.
@@imanigordon6803 I recently scored a job in Anthology (Edtech industry) and I am really happy about it mostly because I can expand my work experience while studying. I do think it would be really difficult to just graduate and apply for a job with no work experience whatsoever. Also they used FizzBuzz as one of the coding interview questions which was really funny because I watched a video on it from Tom Scott like 2 days later 😀
I believe we are shifting into Assisted Software Engineering now. Sure, there will most likely be changes to staffing on some of the tech companies. But anyone who now learns how to effectively utilize these new set of tools to their advantage, will become sought after in these next years. It don't matter wether you are a "junior" dev or "senior" dev, your ability to adapt is everything.
@@coolworx You are missing the point. Using AI as an assistant is similar to senior devs giving junior dev basic tasks to speed up development overall. AI can assist you faster than let say Stack Overflow in solving many things. Chatgpt is not an oracle that will replace anything for now.
I've spent about 17 years in software development and information technology, and another 10 ish teaching computer science in college. Not only will this significantly reduce the number of developers soon, I also see many teachers (including myself). However, the ability to SOLVE problems will always have value. All STEM fields that develop your critical thinking skills will differentiate you in a culture where many don't seem to want to think for themselves anymore.
I am currently in high school. In the future (three years from now), I was thinking of majoring in CS and becoming a software engineer at university. I'm debating whether to go to medical school or study CS.
@@ddwfw either Network Engineering or Cybersecurity being the most future proof in my opinion, you should look into ai development and big data analysis Just my two cents though please take it with a grain of salt
I think AI like ChatGPT can definitely expedite and even replace the need for additional staff. However, in order to successfully program an app with AI you still need an understanding of the fundamentals and syntax of the language you're programming in. If you know how to program then AI makes the job almost automated lol I'm not scared. I see this as the equalizer allowing smaller companies to compete against the AAA companies without having to match the budget
You see . This man is seeing it as robots eliminating positions ina. Factory , I see it , as electricity powering a brand new industrial revolution. Now more companies will be , digital , now the IOT only expands , I’m studying to learn machine learning anyway, and want my CS degree for data science and AI .
The point is that coding itself will die. Human language and automation will replace coding. Creating software will be as simple as building a house in Minecraft. Think about it: Coding is just a primitive language to communicate with the machine. That's changing rapidly.
@@metapotamus i think that ai will also make its own coding tech in 10 years... as his code will be much more optmized and better, plus he can go over the "simplicity" we made in coding and just optimize it as hell.
I think the next question is now what do we do? How can we get ahead of this change? I’m seeing a lot of people speculate on the end of software engineering but not many predicting how to get in front of it.
I went on retirement, I am 33 yo, I bought 2 apartments and now I live from cash from renting my houses. I donyt have to work anymore. Greetings from Thailand
The more I see how AI is _already_ being used in its current released state, the more I agree; the skills needed are already becoming much more high-level & will continue in that trend at an ever-increasing rate
Very interesting thoughts. What’ll happen in the future is anyone’s guess, it can be awful or great. The only thing we can say for sure is that the landscape is changing. For better or worse? We’ll have to see. I’m also an engineer who recently started his career, so yeah the last couple of months have been hella scary, but I try to have a positive outlook on it. In the end those are tools meant to help humanity and I’m excited to see what kind of wild breakthroughs will come in fields like medicine, civil engineering and so on. I also try to remember that if this tool is coming for my job it’s coming for everyone’s job. No one is safe, lawyers, doctors, accountants. All “doomed”, if you will. However, society can’t function if everyone’s unemployed, so almost by default I think we can be reassured there will be SOMETHING for us to do. I just hope it’s not boring lol
Same thoughts here. I’ve been teaching myself web dev for the past 6 months and this ai stuff is panic inducing. But like you said, if they’re able to replace rational or subjective thought and critical thinking then there isn’t a single job outside of manual labor that would be decimated by a.i
@@bearosophy nope ai can use its knoledge to improve itself, look at the stockfish for example(the strongest chess ai) it was feed with chess matches and from that it start to improve itself in a level that no one els can beat it nowdays
@@bearosophy "It's mathematics, essentially." The same goes for software development. It's just a more complicated mathematical function. AI is getting there and soon it will deliver a knock-out to many people. It's the harsh truth.
Interesting point you made about AI making coding more accessible, like how languages like Python made programming more accessible. I think it is worth pointing out that this lowering of the barrier-to-entry has historically created more programming jobs, not reduce them. The amount of “programming jobs” available has more to do with demands for computing in the overall economy, and I only see that keep exploding at speeds perhaps even AI can’t match.
The amount of "programming jobs" is dependant on how many customers need programming-stuff done. If the customer can program his own stuff via A.I., there is no need for a programer. Dont see how this will create more programming jobs.
@@darkforcekiller Sorry, but 1) why would customer even want to do that? 2) they don't even know how technology works. Imagine customer trying to program automated car, next generation of 5G or even a washing machine :D People created Python for comfort and it's still used in a very limited way, because as it turned out every tool has its disadvanatages. We still code in C/C++ despite all this time and all these new inventions.
@@phoearwenien4355 1) Because its cheaper? An A.I. doesnt need to get paid, you know. 2) Not sure what you mean by "They dont know how technology works". By the way, with customers i mean companies and not some single person.
Interesting video! I’d like to add another perspective. One potential hurdle for things like GPT (that I don’t think has received enough attention) is it’s power consumption and hardware requirements to train. GPT used (I believe) 1.287 gigawatts of power and 10k GPUs to develop…in a future with chip/energy shortages and supplychain retractions, I’m not sure if ‘exponential growth’ is really sustainable given these figures. So we might be fine😅 Great video!✌️
Without giving too much info online, I saw several embedded ML providers at this year's CES conference. Hardware is evolving to facilitate lower costs for compute (less energy, less memory, etc.). My bigger fear is if cloud computing monopolies artificially prop up cost for compute to maintain existing profit, as they are just "too big to fail." It'll leave a hole in the market that another country will fill, and one has already developed hardware that matches NVIDIA's performance...
As someone who got into programming through unconventional means (Environmental Science major, got into programming through GIS), and was hoping to use programming as a leg up for my job search, I'm genuinely very considered if this newfound interest and skill I have will even be worth it in the end.
Leverage your environmental science background. The future may be more about mixing domain expertise with developer skills/understanding. Having been working in ML for a bit, I can say it'll be relevant for awhile. But I see ML engineering suffering similar risks. Had an LLM help me write an NN builder template with SOLID design patterns, for example.
I have been a software developer for 15+ years...I really miss the days at the start of the millennium when developing software was...having to build stuff from scratch. There was no Github, Stack overflow and no SCRUM. It was a challenge which made it fun. What was the question again? Oh yes, coding in 5 years...with the rate of progress it gets harder and harder to make any meaningful predictions about the future, but I think that writing code will completely be done by AI and that even a lot of the design/architecture stuff including selecting the best languages/frameworks is left to AI.
yeah possibly, this also is not just going to affect programming so we can get some joy back knowing pretty much every office job will suffer with us. Once I can truly no longer have a job in tech I will be puzzled, maybe I will become carpenter, maybe go back to delivering pizzas, maybe just be unemployed.
I feel like the software developing sphere of getting paid a lot for doing a not so difficult job was bloated since a long time ago and something like this was bound to happen to burst it. Of course, I only mean the coding aspect, not all the other stages of the process like designing and planning which I feel will still be essential even if code is automatized. Instead of being scared, I think we should start to learn these new tools and see how can we add them to our workflow. Like ForrestKnight said, people will still need someone who knows about software to take care of it, it's just that now we don't have to concentrate our efforts in typing stuff mechanically. Also, someone has to take care of the physical devices, security, networking, low-level stuff, etc, and I don't feel like that will be automatized (at least not completely in a long while, in case something goes wrong)
"Not so difficult" job, hmm have you tried creating a whole software/website from scratch end to end. Understanding all the requirements and building a working software in the end. Coding is the hardest part of creating a software. If you don't think so then you have probably never worked as a programmer
I think a lot of these experts can actually gauge pretty well how good AIs will get, they are just completely overestimating how good humans are at certain jobs
damn, i was about to start learning web development, but when i watched a lot of videos like this I had doubts about this. I'm like really stuck, i have no idea what i want to do, what profession to choose, i don't even know what i like
If all you wanted to build were websites you were already screwed by the no-code web development tools. If you want to build web apps, there's hundreds of ways out there, and still some demand for a lot of them. I think web framework and tech stack development will have to stagnate or solidify to a standard in order for AI to have a solid base to produce practical work, but I don't see that happening as everyone and their dog thinks they can build a better framework....Including me.
With the new release of GPT-4 and seeing how chatGPT is now on steroids, I find the line “software engineers won't become obsolete (yet) but heavily reduced” to be thought provoking (in a scary way) and kinda comforting at the same time
Higher standards for entry level jobs is "comforting"? Maybe, but that'll just introduce even more brain teaser interview questions that lead companies nowhere...
@@caseypdx503 I love the USP Suckless have for their window manager DWM, it wraps up the 'why' quite elegantly "Because dwm is customized through editing its source code, it's pointless to make binary packages of it. This keeps its user base small and elitist. No novices asking stupid questions.." So many good things get ruined whenever normalfags enter the scene. As much as I despise gAI, at least it'll cleanse the market
I agree with the fact that the software development workforce will shrink in size over the next decade. Those who remain will work differently then we do today. While most will be directing AI controlled code generators, some will be developing new ideas. At the moment AI still is generally a probabilistic machine, Currently most AI models can only generate code they have seen before, whether in whole or part. So, for a few more years someone will have to be writing code to do new things. At some point in the future however, AI will get better at putting pieces together. The one thing AI wont be able to do for a while is create new ideas with out someone prompting it. When that feature arises, most human jobs will be taken over by AI. This leads to an even bigger question of what do you do with the humans who are replaced by AI? When all these jobs go away, where does the future of humanity go? What do they do? How do they earn an income? Will we all be wards of the state? or will we find a new niche to fill? I still remember having to cook meals in the kitchen, on the stove or in the oven. No fast food existed and a hand full of dinners and restaurants existed , but only in large cities. Now, everywhere you go you can find fast food! I recall party lines (You had to share a phone line with your neighbors, and could only make calls when they weren't using the phone.), now everyone carries a phone (and what would have been a super computer) in their pockets! So much has changed in my lifetime, I now wonder how it must have been for my grandparents who lived with horse draw wagons and saw the automobile and aircraft come into existence. At my age now, I wonder what life on earth (or wherever humans may live) will be like? The only thing you can count on is change. Soon, no one will remember programming, it will be something you ask your personal computing device to do for you. Just as few people being born today will never learn to drive. I suspect that cars wont even have the ability to be driven by humans soon. I think those younger than I would do well to ponder such changes and prepare for them. Governments, and societies as a whole should to. about every 50 years a huge change in society and human existence occurs. It's time to think about what AI means and how it will change your world!
Rule one of programming “Never copy and paste code you don’t know what it does”. The problem with AI code is, even if it could paste it into a repo and deploy, you are relying on the person asking the AI to get all the requirements correct, which never happens, also if you can’t read the code and don’t know what it does, there will bugs.
@@blubblubee Well writing tests is still considered coding, but this misses the fundamental issue, someone has to still review the code to understand what it does, and that takes a programmer. The multiple issues that have happened over the course of half a century from people putting code into production that they didn’t know what it does, wont magically go away even if AI writes it. So someone still will have to read and understand what the code does and if it meets all the requirements before it can be used, and if you think AI can be trusted to check the work of an other AI then you have not worked with computers enough.
@@ryangrow1 I am just an occasional tinkerer, so I don't want to presume to know better, but I do think you are kind of wrong about this. I have already seen AI adding comments to code and that is something I am excited for, and this will only keep getting better. I would even wager that the advancement of AI explaining code will outpace AI writing consistently good code, and that, in the mid-term, AI will actually be a lot better at it than most if not all humans. Writing comments is an undervalued skillset that I appreciate because I am so bad at it, but there are a lot of seasoned programmers that also struggle writing comments with consistent quality and uniformity. The conventions on commenting code are extremely loose to nonexistent, depending on the language, so inevitably, we are biased in a way to write comments in terms that we understand more than maybe others will. (Truth be told, even my future self can barely understand half the comments that I write to them because when one is *IN* the code, then it all just makes sense, yeah?) I think what we will be seeing is AI-generated, dynamic commenting to suit the individual needs of the person reviewing the code. A 'project manager' may want to know what the code does and a learner may want to know how the code works. What a 'senior developer' might find bloated may be just right for a 'junior developer'. Someone who has been working on a project for a while may not need all functionality spelled out the way someone who is reviewing code for the first time might. And here's a trippy thing: AI may write comments for itself and for other AI in order to save on processing time. What that might look like exactly is hard to fathom. It's also important to keep in mind that, in order to increase run times, the programming "code" itself may eventually be a generated abstraction of the binary that the AI 'sees' and works on directly. This means that we'll have to ask, "What would this look like in C?" "What would this look like in python?" "What would this look like in Scheme?" "What would this look like in Assembly?" Okay, let's agree to skip that last one. I totally get if this seems farfetched, but give it time, and I will be vindicated, haha!! X-D I keep seeing people look for future employment that is truly "safe from AI" in the long-term, but the reality is that the only things AI can't replace are creative ownership and the knowledge that one is talking to another human being. Assuming Skynet doesn't happen first, even AI safety and monitoring will largely if not completely be replaced by AI at some point in the future. This isn't even speculation. Think it through, and I think you will come to the same conclusion. The only question is time. There is a reason this video only covers a 5-10 year period. This is a great time for people to pull up a chair and read Bob Black's The Abolition of Work (1991). Late capitalism is going to cling on for dear life, and there is going to be a lot of suffering in the years ahead, but it will end.
@Inspector Gadget I am not sure what a 20+ year old news show has to do with AI, but hey if you guys all want to jump on the bandwagon of “this is end of programers” be my guest, I just don’t think it is true.
You have great insight. I’m a systems development manager and work with a team of 4. I think you’re absolutely right on this but looking at the rate of rollout and integration I think this may happen sooner than 5 years. I feel for those completing their degrees looking to enter their first position as a junior dev. The landscape is going to change very quickly. Not sure what I think about what my job might become. I foresee spending a lot of time in Devops! One thing I hope is that the interface will be different for us with less of a need to sit at a desk and instead of just filling the time producing more code and features, it will require fewer hours and give back more time to people who work in this industry. Utopian I know but the focus on wellbeing is changing how companies look after employees, for the better. awesome videos, keep them coming!
I think companies will have the chance(and need) to start experimenting more. And with the help of ai this will become significantly less expensive and time consuming. This could be one way to still provide job opportunities for sw devs. while increasing competitiveness. Could also be just a lot of cope from my side though ^^
I can see the ai replacing very entry-level programmers but I doubt AI will have the problem-solving and creative capabilities needed to actually design a program anytime soon
Why not? So much of github is open source with more or less complex code bases and you give a good AI even more datasets than just github it will start to have the capabilities of building real programs and not just lines of code
@@Hennesg you could use that same logic for entry level. Should juniors start demanding senior salary’s because they can access large complex code bases to riff off. Chat gpt is massively overrated and humans are underrated. No computer has to achieve what the average human brain can.
maybe a future where programming becomes like a niche skill that everyone is taught in school , pretty much the same skill that you have to write an essay on a topic, now you can just ask the ai to make the code and ask it to change it in any way you want. Like you said, basic knowledge is enough and no need to understand the complex processes behind it. a team of 20 programmer would be reduced to like 2 or 3. Same goes to any other sectors as well. Seeing some posts on my fb feed about how chat gpt4 made and launched an amazing marketing where it did all content writing and boosting. So a lot of other sectors are gonna change too. Sucks since I am in college studying IT :(
the problem is that ai is already starting to code ai lol. and remember all of this has become an issue in less than a year, imagine 5 years. strap in its going to be crazy
This is EXACTLY what my thought was. Well, the worst hit will be the junior devs, hope I and other people will find something else before the apocalypse. *PS: Damn I sound like a conspiracy theorist*
Starting of programming was fun for me because you were constantly learning but after decades of programming everything just started to seem routine. Many problems have already been solved these days where we are just using various different libraries instead of having to create them.
I'm a software engg student with 1 year left in my degree and I've worked in a mid-sized comp as a junior for a year and a half. It might be over optimistic, or copium but I truly still believe I have a chance to succeed in the industry, because I think in the short term I can use these tools to amplify my existing skills to a senior dev. Like I've been using it in my design patterns class which I used to hate with a passion because we had to code everything in java, and I was someone who in my job used C#. I can use the AI to basically translate concepts and what I wanted to be done to then be done speeding up the pain of having to code in a language I have little experience in. For work it's great when I'm stuck on a problem and would normally have to resort to googling things, but when I describe my problem to an AI it avoids the need to browse different stack overflow questions and ask if the question even relates to the problem I have. I can get a solution with as much context as I desire. Also I can use it to write scripts in stuff I'm not familiar with like bash scripts. Once I wanted to write a script to automate a hack to fix an issue with the build where I just deleted the bin folder of a project and rebuilt it. I did that in way less time than it would have took me to research how to delete a file in bash or how to move around and call other bash scripts. For my personal projects I've used it to guide me on what to develop. I needed to seriously refactor one of my larger classes in a React app. I don't have any experience in any enterprise level React, so I have no idea what to even do and my code kinda just remained a mess. With it I was able to understand a lot of the techniques, like higher order components or custom hooks by getting examples of them being applied on my own code. There's even more applications I haven't even tried yet like using it as a digital aristotle to test my comprehension of some subjects, using it to summarize textbooks and articles, or using it to improve my writing skills (which are insanely poor. I usually feel like I write like english is my second language even though it's literally not). Overall, I just feel like I get results quicker which has turned into a positive feedback loop where I'm more motivated to work and learn. I think it's healthier to use it as self improvement-tool rather than go into doomerism (or worse trying to drag others down to it).
This sentiment has been repeated throughout history. I agree with you. The part that people are missing is that it means that companies are going to be able to produce more software faster. That also has the benefit of lowering the cost barrier for startups for new software companies. The jobs will still be there, and perhaps developers may not be able to demand the high salaries,but it also will create another industry. Gotta adapt.
If creating software becomes super easy and cheap, the value of the end product will also get lower. Then creativity, that can beat other AI generated stuff will win.....
Love your succinct explanation of the future of AI in software engineering field. I have been programming for many years now and Chat-GPT had me really worried about all the software jobs that it was going to make obsolete. But for the first time, I think the way you explained the practical implementation of it in a actual sprint cycle and the how a new joiner learns the code base from it, forms a very realistic picture of the future that I can envision 5 years from now.
I'm currently working with poor database (as an intern) which makes me wonder if the age of AI will not introduce really flawed design as well as security risks. One of my "database" class was honestly closer to a math class and I'm really hoping to learn more in the future as there's probably a lot I don't see yet. Though it really opened my eyes. For that reason I am not too scared. The truth is anyone can code these days. AI or not, WYSIWYG tools have been developing steadily. Frameworks and serverless are already abstracring all the details. To me, coding was already long dead. We are simply lowering the barrier to entry even more which means there's gonna so many more people not knowing the heck they're doing. Clearly that means there's gonna be so many opportunities when it comes to assessing designs as well as mitigating vulnerabilities left by a lack of knowledge of the nitty gritty. I consider AI is the opportunity to focus on modeling more.
It's really worrying. For now it's a fun hobby I enjoy and I think it's more a productive way for me to spend my time. It IS depressing though because it's already hard to get a foot in the door in the industry let alone trying to learn (with the elitism of stack overflow) so it seems I just got into it too late. WELP back to playing video games and waiting for the sweet release that only death can bring I guess.
Here are some of my thoughts about this matter that I just wanted to share. It's lengthy -- you've been warned. I believe that there is an overlooked difference between the case of scribes being replaced by the printing press or weavers by the machinery and the prospect of programmers (or any people doing creative work, for that matter) being replaced by the AI. The former was possible due to the finite nature of the machinery. Once designed, it was possible to prove (not necessarily in the strict sense) that those machines are indeed going to work properly. The blueprints could be analyzed by the engineers, and the prototypes tested. It's important to note that in the case of machinery, extensive testing enables us to say with great confidence that it will perform well since the number of actions it performs is finite (even though the environment may vary). The same doesn't apply to AI at all. Even though the algorithms used for training are known, the final product (the model) is impossible to be tested properly given that the set of operations it performs is infinite (think of the number of possible user queries). I also believe that giving a strict mathematical proof of the correctness of the model (i.e. that it will always yield the correct answers) is impossible as well; I don't have a compelling argument for that right now. So, my main point is that whenever we need the confidence that the system will work properly, human insight is unavoidable. This means that we will still need people to be able to exhaustively analyze the AI's output. The knowledge of programming languages, system design and everything that we associate with programing is not going to lose in value.
The TL:DR - "This means that we will still need people to be able to exhaustively analyze the AI's output. The knowledge of programming languages, system design and everything that we associate with programing is not going to lose in value." - Yes, my thoughts exactly.
Agreed. I would like to point out though that this would create a situation where you only need highly skilled devs which is actually detrimental for upcoming people because that easily makes them lose confidence and motivation. In other words the learning curve and time becomes much steeper to reach the point where you become the person who is hired for human insight of the code produced by AI
Nice emphasis on infinite output. About output supervision though, under what error rate of another independent AI supervisor shall we replace the human part completely? Ultimately we will enter another paradox but just not that soon.
@@cken27 Exactly this. People that say AI needs human supervision "forever" seem to vastly overestimate human capability which is nothing compared to the AGI we are talking about.
Here’s some advice, someone who understands computer science, coding, etc is going to be a better “prompter” than someone who doesn’t understand what a string or function is. Don’t quit computer science, if anything generative ai should light a fire under you.
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this video is idiotic. we arent talking about machines, we are talking about demonic, synthetic intelligences. 25 IQ take
😮 I mean they're so right there's some things that only humans can do😮 so have you heard of the😮 brain organoid computer😮 we can make computers out of human brain cells by reprogramming skin cells😮 and growing them😮 and in fact using AI we've gotten a lot better at this making them three-dimensional and connecting them to other organoids😮 the organoids are more efficient than AI compute faster😮 and require less energy instead of us making materials they literally are just grown😮 translation we are 100%😮 times a billion cooked we are deep fried😮 flaming Youg😮
software engineers got so obsessed with optimizing, we began to optimize ourselves out of the industry
Lol this. That's what you get for being myopic
Maybe it is time to evolve away from writing the same repetitive code over and over again and instead focus on building solutions for customers. AI is the new tool to make software engineers better.
@Todd Snyder At the same time it makes software engineering easier. And when something becomes easy, what happens?
@Blind Faith this sounds like the evolution of software development. For years, developers were stuck building reports, and now there are plenty of tools that empower end users. This freed developers to focus on something else more critical to the business. I personally do not see developers going away. Instead, we need to evolve. When this happens, we learn new and exciting things.
@@PersonOfBook what about problem solving though. As technology advances and we start to expand, AI may just prove to be a tool to make things easier and be the blenders in the code AI generates (and put them into the project well). Maby roles may change
I am about to graduate with a CS degree and the thought of losing a career I haven't even started terrifies me
I do think there's a way to position oneself within the industry to ensure job safety, but I do think many jobs within the industry aren't safe at all.
Same
I hear ya. I got a programming essentials certificate and currently working on my degree as well from my local university. It’s already a pain in the ass trying to even get into a job nowadays with big tech layoffs and start up shutdowns due to the economy crashing.
I’m honestly thinking about starting OnlyFans as this is my second career change from electronics technician.
Of course I’ll try to improve as much skills as I can. One things for sure tech interviews will be a lot harder now.
Just learn to code!
Oh wait
@Artimus yeah and you will definitely make a lot of money with only fans. Sex sells.
I would like to offer some solace to those new CS graduates who commented on this video about their fears. I had only 5 years in the print industry before all jobs dissapeared in that industry, but what I knew about typography and layout was not obsolete. Once I learned some coding I could transition to that field and utilize what I knew. Also, a lot of what it means to do a job well is universal. I'm not going to go into particulars, but basically being a good worker is a skill of it's own, and learning is as well. Whatever the future holds, I bet you will be well equipped to handle it.
Really Appreciated
Go ahead ❤
thanks, really appreciate, i am basically a self taught going to graduate in a month or two . The degree is nothing, everything i have to do, i have to learn is by my self, no mentor, its hard. On top of that these ai tools scare the shit out of me. But then i should be scared if i am jot working hard.
I am relieved. Thanks Heisenberg!
My advise to young people is do not get pregnant as the future with automation and A.I. robotics will need only a tiny fraction of labor. It advances much amfaster than even a guy in IT for 20 years would have guessed. I was certain something like ChatGPT was 20 years away based in the A.I detecting cats in videos only happened in 2012.
I used to work in an accounting team producing invoices, tax schedules, policy documents (real fun shit). Overtime, I noticed that more and more software updates were coming in, making it easier to auto-generate these documents. We were a whole department of well over 20 people when I joined. By the time I left after just 2 years, there were just 3 "quality control" checkers. Personally, I never liked the job anyway and was glad to be moving on. But the worst part was there were people who had been doing that their whole life. Some had been at the company 30+ years. They didn't know anything else. My best advice to anyone worried about job security is make hay while the sun still shines and have a plan B.
Plan B? I'm a man. I can't start an onlyfans nor I want to be a pimp🤷♂️
Also revolt the system
@@boomerang0101 lol you absolutely can start an onlyfans
@@boomerang0101 onlyfans will be replaced by chatgpt + some animation filters so gg. There's already a girl that automated hers
@@boomerang0101 Don't be unattractive 🤣
Currently halfway through my bachelor in software engineering. Decided to get back to school at 27 and pursue it. How did I get like the worst timing ever wtf
That sounds like a you problem.
I am just about to start this fall at 27. Having second thoughts..GPT was literally released couple of days after I got accepted to college
Don't worry, AI is not going to replace Developers. It will replace easy coding where you can just Google stuff.
I'm in the same boat. Pats on the back for going back to school at our age but now it feels like bad timing.
@@XedMedia at least we can always try to pivot and get different tech jobs if entry level ones start drying up but who knows what will be left of those too
If AI is writing software better than humans, we have a much bigger problem than being out of a job.
@@valentin7436 false ai can already do many things better than us right now even though we have given the information, it can invent novel ideas.
on the other had, the same can be said for humans.
humans also learn from other humans or existing information that was discovered and gathered from around the world.
if AI is limited to the dataset we give it, so are humans also limited to the data they receive from external stimulus in their environment.
you are able to type this comment in English because you learnt the language of english
@@businessmanager7670 correct, so you said the same thing I said 😂
@@valentin7436 Humans can improve Their coding from existing information, skills and practise.
so can ai.
and ai is not limited to the storage Capacity of the human Brain which will give it better capabilities to write code.
already, ai can write articles and essays at the level of top humans, if not better.
and also better than most average to high end people.
infact ai was given information on chess, from humans, but it now used that information and discovered new ways that humans never thought about and now it is better than all humans at chess.
same is going to happen with coding.
so good luck with your dreams lol
@@businessmanager7670 I agree with you about your statement "humans also learn from other humans or existing information that was discovered and gathered from around the world." But I think the biggest difference is that AI can't think of counterfactuals and interventions like humans can. So until AI can do this I don't think it will surpass us. For reference look at Judea Pearls Causal Inference work.
@@goshua13 ai has already made inventions and discoveries.
scientific papers are published on it.
ai discovered alternate physics and ai invented new algorithms.
there are papers published on both those subjects.
ai is capable of novel inventions like humans
It's funny how programmers managed to cause chaos on lot of careers, and now they're doing it to themselves
😂
im retiring in 5 years, so this is fine 😂😂
@@weho_brian You'll make it, probably.
@@harackmw its 3 to 10 years, depending on how well my tech/AI stocks do and if I can get out before the big crash 😂
Ai making Ai that is programmed to make the Ai
Just many months ago everyone told kids to learn coding and now today adults and CS students are being told to quit college and coding? WTF?
They have to outperform an AI now, that is their competition, very despairing.
Things change quick in this technological era. It's adapt or die. Also this AI projected take over was known and expected many years ago.
@@Yggdrasill8 we are fine, AI is not real AI, just machine learning and people with little experience with chat gpt cant really code well or know what to do.
@@Annntttt12we are not fine see brother we humans created nuclear bombs but they cannot reproduce, but ai can create more models just by merging and writing new code on its own , hell this has happened already and don't forget most of the models that are being made half of them use ainto visualize and layout how the model will work and look it is already at par of an high IQ individual with lots of memory and everyday gaining new knowledge due to the fact most of the things that are happening are on the internet and it learns from the internet
bro go to english class@@piyushnarayan9342
I like how you address the possible mid/long-term impacts of AI on the industry while so many have been dismissing them by just showing the early errors with ChatGPT. It might not be nice to hear but it's important to talk about.
would like to giv' you 99 likes ...
Absolutely spot on comment.
I'm literally in my first year of a CS degree and all I have ever wanted was to become a Software Engineer, gain tons of experience and within 10 years get a really well paid job. It actually sickens me that this is more than likely never going to happen now and I'm not going to lie, its seriously effecting my mental health.
Imagine how assembly programmers felt when high level languages started to become a thing. Then "autocorrect" in IDEs.
If you are smart enough, you will navigate through this. Remember, even if the AI makes code suggestions, even if it is extremely sophisticated and just works at some point, there will be a need for humans who can understand the code and work with the machine. Especially when the amount of code produced increases globally, which will happen if the AI gets better at coding, the need for skilled people increases. The layoffs are because of different reasons, if you are serious about this profession, you will be fine.
Also, there are so many useless people at work, it's unimaginable that someone who is good at SE will get fired because of the cognitive potential in that person to do anything complicated, given some time.
If you really want to "feel safe", get off the "AI Hype train" bombarded with numb-minded trend followers right now and familiarize yourself with the technology, from top to bottom. Start with Python, use the libraries, follow guides and simply replicate the process of machine learning so that you at least understand some of it. Then work your way down to the details, but this isn't necessary. Some lunatic who thinks using ChatGPT will make him the best "coder" ever will never, never be able to do the job a real passionate and understanding SE can accomplish.
To get a good job in general, you will have to be adaptive, but in a relaxed, yet professional way. Otherwise, you will not keep up, or burn out. Find perfect balance and serenity in your innate abilities. Technical skill, essential to get employed, will be part of you after doing some projects.
Don't ever underestimate the potential of your mind, it works differently from a machine learning algorithm.
Simply focus on your studies and put your mind to work on projects that fascinate you.
yep im stressing as i graduate this year. I dont know what the hell i want to do now
same man, idk what to do.
Just focus on data science (ML &AI), so that you can create AI's to replace even more jobs ( I know it sounds harsh but that's the reality)💀
my friend if it's your first year (and you're not that into it) I'd tell you to find another career.
If you like it there will be a lot of jobs that are related to hardware programming/SDKs/big data/IT admins/etc that will still require humans.
As a CS graduate of 1 year, my life has only recently started becoming stable with a moderate job and positive career prospects... except the advent of AI has shattered that image of stability for me. I can't predict how the following years will go, how the industry I've spent years studying for will change and morph, and when the value I've built up for myself as a software engineer will decrease or, quite possibly, become irrelevant.
I thought the toughest and most doubtful years of my life were behind me, but the coming years look much more difficult to struggle through than I could have predicted :(
Same here,i'm crying here paralyzed to not even continue on with my classes.
Have zero motivation right now
I didn't mean to scare or demotivate anyone. I still love CS and programming. It's just, I did the research and came to a conclusion and shared that conclusion based on what I found, which happens to be something many of us don't want to hear. But also keep in mind, that conclusion is also just one man's opinion. There's a lot of information out there - and don't see this as a plug or anything since NVIDIA is the sponsor - but I do think there will be some good info shared at GTC next week since their main focus is AI. Hopefully opinions are shared by many of these industry leaders, and let's hope they give a good explanation as to why they think the way they do.
I do think there will be more doors opened to freelance opportunities, and a way to position yourself properly in the existing job market to have better job safety.
If you've finished a CS degree, you're probably way better off than the people who barely know any CS fundamentals
You're not going to be obsolete in the next 2-5 years atleast, the tools are amazing but not That amazing, what i think it will do pretty darned soon is jack up the skill floor Way up, less competent and junior programmers will get squeezed out by good to excellent programmers, there are limits to which such AI can't reach, tasks that require actual conscious thought and true reflection. But that's a rather smaller set of problems/jobs than currently. Heck i got a qualification in the industry just a few days ago, but i ain't planning on changing careers (just did that) or becoming obsolete. It's lifes good ol' reminder to not be complacent, this is a race you can win starting today, in 5 years maybe not (atleast for many).
@@fknight you have to understand the influence you have on young people aged 14-25 with clickbait titles.
Looks like the programmers get to know what it feels like to be artists right now
This is the way.
I reckon artists are in a much better position than programmers tbh. People like storytelling, relatability, originality, humour etc. At the moment, generative AI doesn't seem to do any of those particularly well. It might improve in the future.
What's with OpenAI destroying careers?
The question is that us programmers already knew what was coming.
This was already obvious 3 or 4 years ago, knowing how fast AI evolves
If programmers get taken out, you understand 90% of all jobs will go with them?
I'm a full time senior dev and Chat GPT is not only assisting me in my current role, but it is also allowing me to rapidly develop side projects that I didn't dream of working on a couple of months ago let alone last year. Integrating it as part of a codebase or a workflow is the last missing piece before everything clicks in to place.
Most of my time is now is already spent ensuring that ChatGPT's code and suggestions are correct instead of actually writing code in the first place.
Would you mind sharing how you're interfacing with ChatGPT when programming? Are you providing file or project context somehow?
@@jamesmussett Thanks so much for the thoughtful response. Currently, I'm searching around to see how to train a model with the context of typical design patterns / and component structures that our company commonly uses.
@@rickyj1 One good approach is to specify best practices as part of the application you're trying to describe. Unfortunately it's ability to retain that on top of all the other context you're trying to give it can be a bit limiting.
my friend is a coder as well, he also has same experience, his job became to read code and edit them instead of writing them. speeds up his job by a lot.
@@ddwfw I'm not one to say this kind of thing lightly. But this is probably the worse moment to start a CS degree. What you're going to learn is probably going to be not only outdated, but of very little value by graduation date.
I even hesitate to write this. Please get other perspectives and don't put too much weight into this old developer's views
As a student who’s about to graduate college really soon with a CS degree. I’m terrified. I basically have about 2-3 years to save as much money as I can and save that money to get into another major 😭 nursing school here I come
By the time you finish nursing school nursing will also be automated 🤣🤣.
Please don't change your career because of a clickbait video.
@@Squidlark 😂😂
Study more about what LLMs are and how they understand and produce results. For them to take any job, they need to have a model of the world from which they can infer various relations, like writing code. Now that model needs to be wildly complex, near humanlike or better in order to juggle different levels of abstraction correctly. You'd expect such llm to understand us, users of applications, the organizations, the hardware, the software in order for it to take good predictions in building large scale apps.
It's not just about writing scripts and answering short and well defined prompts. If it needs to take a software dev's job it needs to be a lot more wise about everything than gpt-4 seems to be or could be. The fact our tests are miserably designed does not mean passing them implies an AI can do the actual job.
We take a lot of things for granted when dealing with other humans, which is not a given in any way for an LLM. Imagine a driving test that only asks you question about driving regulations. Just because we take as a given you are able to see and recognize things correctly on the street does not mean a LLM that answers perfectly will ever take a trucker's job.
If you just go into any enterprise and see the mess of all the jumbled up code/apis/db structures and dysfunctional organization, you could never get all that into an AI be it GPT-4,5,6..
Any sufficiently smart AI to worry about will be either an AGI or incredibly expensive to run for such mundane tasks when it could be used for financial or world domination. As much as you consider any job safe, SWE is still near the top.
Good Luck and don't lose faith because of hype, it's easy to imagine things and dream about potential of things, it's very hard to actually to implement anything functional. Keep an eye on Microsoft, there will be no GPT-4 in excel any time soon. Give it a year and let's see what happens!
@@josephp.3341 Most intermediate level work done by grads with a B.S. in CS or IT will vanish. However, the demand for AI experts and prodigy coders or those with PHDs will be greater than ever.
As a new dev still looking for job #1, it's really worrying.
Haha 😂 good luck
Please still learn to program. I would start learning how now you can start working with GPT.
@@viperjay1 what's in it for you? can't find enough people to hire? OP try to specialize in AI
@@btm1 because it's still a good skill to have. I am not a programmer, just a helpdesk tech trying to find work since I was laid off on August of 22 😥
ad generative AI to your skillset and you will be a better and more valuable developer. The only coders that will be affected are the coders that do not embrace tools like ChatGPT.
I just started my programming career a year and a half ago after a very long time of not knowing what to do with my life. I finally found something that I feel like is worth doing, how ironic.
Now im not even sure if i want to continue my hobbies anymore. I can see this helping me with my side projects/hobbies creating games n stuff but as a career? nah, I think i'll have to find a new outlook
omg same here. I quit my job and literally half way through my learning process. The thought of demand decrease in the industry really scares me
Outsourcing is a bigger threat. No-code tools for a narrow business space are bigger threat. Coding still exists. It always will, because humans always think they can do something better. Even if it is writing a better AI.
Don't you find is weird that those peddling "AI Revolution" are the ones building a product in AI? All information about replacing programmers is coming from those who have a stake in it.
lol same
This will be my 18th year developing software. I fully admit that the thought of a future where writing code is an obsolete practice makes me... If nothing else, sad. I personally have a blazing passion for learning the nuances of these technical languages and applying them to invent things that haven't been built before. I've heard many people mention that in the future, knowing how to prompt AI software will become a critical skill, and I believe that. Not really sure where I'm going with all this, but I guess I'm likely going to have to learn how to deal with my passion becoming obsolete.
Agree. We humans pride our intellect above all things. It's what makes us different from other animals. The advent of AI is quite humbling. Considering many people find themselves in their work and their work being a source of not only income but of satisfaction, this new tech is a spanner in the works.
this make me believe you're just an egocentric human (wow what a surprise right), the fact you think it's sad to democratize coding because you lose your own sense of worth is frankly disgusting. I would rather have AI and allow the large majority to benefit and produce content which they would otherwise never have been able to instead of a select few "elitist" programmers that dictate what can be made. Glory to AI ☝
He is right, people that have the passion and that work hard for it should be the ones to dictate and not someone who sits around doing.
As a new cs student... it feels a bit deflating to know that AI will mostly be doing the writing. It's not that the deep technical knowledge won't be required, but humans will take the role of an overseer, as AI will shit out code faster than I could think it. It also makes me wonder what happens to our own critical thinking as we extend more and more of it to machines, as they are simply so much better at it.
Sure, we are getting more efficient in terms of getting to the end product, but I see the future where AI's automatically write our text for us, emulate our voice and handle our calls for us, make all calculations and handle all our problems for us. And on the altar of efficiency, we will sacrifice our humanity and our ability for critical thinking. Most interaction between humans will be AI's responding to other AI's. When we erase ourselves from human interaction, what will be left?
@@hyde4004 To be honest all those tasks are bitch work. Find your human worth in other more meaningful endeavors such as pondering the meaning of life and physics to help humanity end its woes before the next major natural disaster or man made one.
I'd just like to offer some words of encouragement, I have been a professional software developer for almost 10 years now, and currently use Chat GPT to assist with bugs, issues and writing skeleton code. I can tell you that it is very far from replacing a human developer. It gets a lot of things wrong and more importantly, it doesn't "connect the dots" like a human can. I'm what I consider a below average developer technically, yet I've almost 10x my salary over the past 10 years and have a great career. We aren't going anywhere, this is just another tool to help us do our jobs, if anything, this will offer developers more opportunity.
So if you're currently studying CS or similar, keep going. And if you want any further more personal advice, feel free to get in touch.
Cheers, good luck!
Sure, that’s how it is now. But just consider how fast it is improving. I can’t even imagine how good ChatGPT will be in just 1 year.
Hello sir, I am preparing for exam and trying to get in the best College to study CSE. Iam currently in class 12th. It was my dream to work as a programmer. But, as things are coming I am afraid, will there be job left for me 4 years later. As I will get in college (hopefully) in August 2023. So, should I choose CSE? 😢
Please provide your Telegram handle 😊
You are giving them bad advice. ChatGPT wasn't even trained on programming data. Nobody will be programming 20 years from now.
How long befor it gets over that??,?,with every upgrade its gets better ie gpt--10 ????
I think the main thing that will prevent companies from fully leaning into AI generated code stuff is not wanting to leak their code/processes/etc to some service in the cloud. So does that mean that some of the larger companies will run on prem/private cloud versions of these AI assistants? Maybe. Or Open AI could introduce some single tenant paid offering to allow the company singular access to that instance. We're definitely standing on the precipice of very interesting changes.
After a lot of personal struggles I am about to join as a data engineer and this makes me feel depressed so much ! Just can’t imagine what life will be after all this mess
did you have any previous experience as a data enginner or data role before ?
data analysts and engineers are the first one to become redundant. Please start developing other skills on side.
@@youko1995245 No
I would push those dates a lot. Real websites (i.e - not simple marketing real-only sites, but those that have a login) are very complicated systems made from many projects in different languages spanning millions of confusing poorly written uncommented code. I have seen many large projects that were written over a decade by different people and different ideas and so many patches over patches that there is no way an AI could understand it better than all the people who made that mass in the next 5 years. Also, until I see an AI create and maintain a real live codebase doing fixes and additions to it I will not believe we are even close. So don't lose hope all the people who learn CS today, you will have time to become a senior engineer in this decade. But in the long term, you may be right - with cloud-based hosting and very smart AI, this could make many of the current programming jobs obsolete.
If AI puts us devs out of business in a few years then everyone's job will be automated out
The joys of higher unemployment and lower wages await us all. I think the technology will make a few people very rich, and lot of people very poor. It's all very well painting a picture of progress, but I'd argue it isn't progress if everyone is on minimum wage and struggling to find a purpose in life. The only thing AI truly achieves is putting opportunity and wealth into the hands of an even smaller group of people. No other technology has ever existed which has the potential to replace so many working people in such a short space of time. Comparing a printing press to AI is like comparing a bullet to a nuclear bomb. We're charging head first into an economic melt down and a dystopia.
I could not possibly agree with you more. The “haves” are continuously finding ways to seal off any exits that may have been available to the “have nots”.
If it wasn't for autist soyboy morons like Lex Fridman we wouldn't be going down this path. When you're oblivious to the realities of human nature it's easy to have some peachy view of a future where we all get to live in luxury and paint pictures, play video games or make music all day because AI is doing all the real work for us. The reality is like you said, mass slavery and a 1984 type situation. The only solution we're going to have is violent uprising, so get yourself ready for that physically and mentally because it is absolutely coming.
I sadly agree with that...Let's not forget that many countries are already predicting a very bad scenario for the elderly people of the next 20-30 years
Feudalism could make a comeback. A new kind of AI driven Feudalism. Very few people who will control all the ressources and assets... and dictate the lives of billions of people on this planet.
@@Selendeki I don't know about the extermination part, they couldn't do it without the army, and I can't see the army jumping on board.
Other than that I 100% share your pessimism.
This has been a topic for some times now, and people didn't care as much until now because we didn't have something like GTP 4 in place for anyone to access. That being said, there will always be a need for programmers, or at least people who can read and understand code. I agree with everything you said, only thing I would say differently is that it will take 15 years for our industry to change drastically in comparison to now.
I feel like cybersecurity personnel will be the least affected in the long run but hard to predict anything at this point. The AI has to fuck up once for it to be considered unreliable and let humans continue their work, and I believe it will fuck up at some point in some way, at least for now.
That's a good point of view there. I appreciate you sharing. Yea, I have always had an interest in AI, it was even my emphasis in my CS degree, but never really worried much about it. Again, I always thought programmers were good until I really started digging deep and thinking about it more logically in exactly _how_ it could do our jobs. Now that it's knocking on our door, it's hard to ignore.
@@fknight I feel like if they can take over our jobs, they could take over most jobs as well. I can't think of 1 field where AI couldn't do a good job honestly.
Which area of IT do you think will be less affected by AI?
It will take much more than 15 years. You still have a human in the middle with its limitations And you still have a greed of human on top of all of this. Money drives the world and AI.
If we look at our industry we can see that there is a lot of attempt to accelerate the process of application / website creation. The goal have always been to be less dependant on the developer. CMS was here for that up to LowCode / NoCode tools and now AI. And what happen ? Finally we just see more people making more projects. We could see more non technical people making app more easily or dev making apps quicker (and then more apps). So, on one side I think we will see the same kind of move in the short / mid term. In the long term it's hard to guess but clearly industry will be impacted. Number of jobs vs new kind of jobs (like you said like an AI Pilot for QA or AI Pilot for code review). I can't say if it will be positive or negative. And at last I agree that AI could take every job BUT there is one thing I think we miss. If AI take all job meaning all of us will have no money. But who will buy the product that AI make (because they make it for a company right) ? There is a non sense on the economic side but I stop here my answer is really too long and could open another all debate, sorry
@@VinyTube974 yeah long term impact of AI is pretty difficult to predict but going forward income inequality can be a problem
I think a lot of these opinions were made before chat 4. Honestly I don't think people really considered chat 3 to be that crazy, they just hyped it up way too much. But with how quickly chat 4 came out its definitely a question of when, when will it take our jobs now cuz the improvement is major and it came really quick
I'm a software engineer for like 15 years. The thing that makes me sad is ... I became programmer / software engineer because as a kid / teenager I liked to ... write code.
Now, when I'm sometimes a software engineer, fullstack, or some kind of solution architect, knowing some dev ops stuff, I'm still the happiest when I don't have meetings, when I don't write ADR documents - I'm happiest when I finally can sit and ... write code. That's the best part of being software engineer. At some point writing code will be kind of pointless because everything will be delivered faster by AI.
Funny question ForrestKnight. Who will write new frameworks ? Who will write new programming languages if we will be reduced ? :)
Also, what about legal part ? At the moment, there are software houses that forbid using chat gpt or any kind of code completion / analysis because the code is their property. There is no guarantee that the code you pasted is not an input for AI. Some companies / software houses don't want that. Yes, pure competition can change that (if one software house which uses AI will offer project finished 50 % faster ;) ) but still I think that at some time , somebody may create a new license that will ie. forbid to use code as an input data for AI / Chat GPT. Now, it's a little bit of wild wild west ;) Somebody took the code from all over the internet, didn't care about license, about code attribution and put it into Chat GPT. I'm not so sure if it won't end up in huge sueing case in court.
If I put some code on my website, or repository, it doesn't necessary mean that I allowed it to be crawled and used as AI training / input data, without any kind of code attribution, credits or whatever.
I think, and to be honest hope, that sooner or later some new License will show - literally "u can use my code (as a human being, because I like to share my knowledge with humans ;) ) freely for non-commercial, commercial use, BUT it's forbidden to be used as training data for commercial AIs" (built by the greedy corporations that are above the law - as youTuber you cannot put 5 secs music without claims but you can steal code and build AI around it, just like that, if you're big corporation).
It's not that AI is taking programmers jobs. AI is taking literally whole (tech)industry and becoming the owner of it.
Take a look at ArtStation. Filled with AI generated images. It does not longer need real human beings that created this platform. Their works are not needed anymore because their data was used as AI input and made them obsolete. I don't think it's even fair use (= you take ie. apple laptop design, and being inspired by this heavily, you design something different hmm a table for example ;) )
That’s how it is at my job. Can’t use Copilot because there is no guarantee that our proprietary code and trade secrets won’t show up in someone else’s IDE as a recommendation. You’re the first person other than myself that I’ve seen bring this up.
Which in my experience Copilot sucks anyways. I’d much rather have Intellisense.
>Who will write new programming languages if we will be reduced ? :)
there are literally only thousands of people who develop new PLs, frameworks, etc...
Perhaps the conventional programming languages will be replaced by a uniform pseudo-language (similar to the universal language English), in which it will then only be indicated whether an individual part of a program is implemented procedurally, functionally or object-oriented. Even a justification in relation to the efficiency or the error susceptibility could be indicated there if desired. Then it is no longer necessary to decide whether Fortran or Java should be used.
Much more interesting, however, will be the point at which ChatGPT can reverse engineer machine code, including good documentation, so that no company will even attempt to produce closed source software. I therefore assume that in a few years only open source software will be relevant, because it also has the advantage that it can be improved by a worldwide community.
This will certainly lead to other business models, i.e. not so much software as a service in general, but artificial intelligence as a service in particular. This trend can be seen very well in the form of all kinds of providers of AI software, especially since the appearance of ChatGPT. But one day there will also be artificial intelligence that improves itself on the home computer. To properly classify this possibility, one only has to take a look at Alpaca AI.
You hit the nail on the head when u said:
"It's not that AI is taking programmers jobs. AI is taking literally whole (tech)industry and becoming the owner of it. "
The entire software development process involves not only techniv skills but also a ton of collaboration between multiple parties. It feels like the automation of software development is going to be one of the last things to happen. If it does happen It would logically follow that everything else is going to be automated at that point.
yeah i doubt it would actually happen tbh. coding is still a really complicated job and AI is not even bugfree and perfect
This makes the most sense
How do you automate a roughneck on an oil platform? Or even the engineers? Maybe with those Atlas robots at some point - but that’s in the far future.
@@mithrandirthegrey7644The intelligence needed for a machine to complete a task like that is pretty much there already, the bottleneck is our robotics, but a breakthrough in that field can happen at any point, maybe even sooner than later thanks to AI.
@@Settiis No shit Sherlock?
'Software App Administrator'. That may be a new job: an AI writes code, a senior dev makes sure it does what it's supposed to and reports to a board during a boring meeting with money people. I think you're on something Forrest. thanks for this video :)
Bye bye Juniors Devs!
yeah because the companies put their code in the internet.
@@RayMatador These people clearly don't work in the industry yet
If AI removes juniors then the software industry is over. Nobody becomes senior without being junior and mid level before. It’s game over.
That's why this doesn't make any sense. The bar for being a junior will be much higher, but there will still be juniors. Saying there will be no more because of a new technology doesn't make sense because either A: the whole career path gets removed or B: the entry level role's entry bar is risen.
I am graduate student in bioinformatics and a lot of my cohort have been worried about this. I definitely have the same sentiment as you, that AI will only make our lives easier. I look at it as a calculator, a tool. At the end of the day, there needs to be someone to provide the analysis.
for sure, but imagine this, all the human developers who used to be part of building the software will not have jobs. only those qualified to be good analysts will have jobs. the other take is we can hope that all the lost developer positions can be replaced by even more (new analyst positions), which at this point is uncertain.
@@servanttoson agreed. Can definitely see that as a likely outcome
What’s your opinion about bioinformatics?
ChatGPT is already capable of answering many analysis type of questions. Imagine in the future, when the CEO wants to know how to reduce cost in business, all they need to do is to ask AI the question. As the AI has access to data for all aspects of the business, it is totally imaginable that AI can give sound recommendations based on rounded analysis. However, there will still be a need for workers to verify and implement those recommendations. At least in the near future, fully intelligent robots will not become a thing.
And staff and salaries will be seriously reduced. That’s a given. Financial software has replaced many.
So what this taught me is that senior devs will still be necessary. Going to work super-hard to get there then! Thank you. 🙏🏻
I don’t know if I will ever be good enough to become a senior dev. However, even if devs like me are made obsolete by AI some day, I still wouldn’t regret learning how to code bc it significantly improved my learning abilities and problem solving skills which are highly valuable no matter what field/industry you wanna get into.
Always is a strong word.
AI education will eventually reach a point that anyone can become a 'senior dev' for working with AI tools with a 2 month curriculum.
So yeah, it will be there, but it's going to be absurdly competitive.
Yep. And guess what. Senior devs don’t just pop out from the ground. They have to be juniors first. And even if they do take our jobs. Cyber security is pretty interesting, I’ll probably give it a go and try to be a pen tester
GPT-4 can refactor legacy code bases which is a senior level task. Check out Nick Chapsas
that's not gonna be entirely true, lol, that's also a lie seniors tell to comfort themselves, we are all in the same boat son, seniors and juniors alike... what this will boil down to is "Who knows how to use the AI", and from my experience, it's usually the junior devs who are front-facing these technologies, they do the hands on coding, they know what they want, or what they need to do, yeah, the senior dev defines it for them, but they have to go do it hands on, and learn whatever technology needed. Most, I mean MOST senior devs I know are lazy to, they don't even really remember how to use any tech properly now, it'll be juniors rushing to learn how to handle these, anywyays, this is no prediction, just what I think
We were saying the same about self driving systems. But the edge mistakes we see now in chat gpt and the rest, may be more difficult to fix than he assumes.
I suspect you are right. There are two things to keep in mind. Firstly - AI does not scale like people think - the curve is not exponential, it's logarithmic. Secondly - AI is not good at solving novel problems. Because it does not actually understand anything about what it is doing. So in my work today, I was creating part of a terrain system for a game engine. ChatGPT could not solve a bug I found. It would not be able to code any of the underlying architecture or systems required to make this work. And I cannot see it getting there any time soon. AI does not know what gameplay means, it does not understand what feels good or fun to play. And this problem is not unique to games. The issue is the same as the art generators that put extra legs or fingers on people.. The reason that happens is because the AI does not know the purpose of a finger. So when faced with a novel request, it will get things wrong.
Well a bug is not the same as a person life.
Self drive has infinite complexity and randomness of people's behaviour to deal with..the environment is too plastic and the stakes too high for two tons of metal to be controlled safely.
This is being mitigated by changes to road layouts and speed limits/pedestrian rules.
They are making the environment more predictable to suit the sdv.
Still..we don't have roll out of autonomous trains, and the rail environment is way more predictable than city streets.
Whole lotta risk.
Were you using GPT3.5 or 4?
Regulation red tape will be far less obstructive to generative AI than self driving cars since misinformation is not seen as bad as vehicular homicide.
I fully agree that there will be less people writing code in the future. Another option would be that the same amount of Software Engineers write 10x more code, thereby solving problems. I guess it depends on the market demand for software and how companies actually use AI in the process.
I'm fascinated and terrified of this. I only had 1 year of professional web development experience before I got laid off. I've been looking for another job since then and that was a year ago. I gave everything I had to learn programming so I could make more money and build cool things but I'm struggling so bad right now and it sounds like it's only gonna get worse for someone like me
Ouch. I’m a cs student about to graduate. Things are getting a little unsure out here
You've been looking for a job for a year even though you have experience??? WTF? Where are you from?
@@flashlightwashcloth7283 A LITTLE?
if you want to success in the field, you must learn "how to learn" not a specific technology like js, c++ or whatever. By having the "programmer's brain" into you, you'll focus more on how to achieve a result / solve a problem than worry if your coding language will become obsolete.
So no worries, we'll need devs.
@@dev_innit yeah everyone can adapt so easily and we're all gifted with high IQ programming skills and cant wait to join another rate race of integrating with ai.
So exiciting!
For the people studying CS, hopefully this puts you at rest. As the future is un-predictable anyway, you should definitely continue
to study what you enjoy studying. There are also many students who enjoy studying philosophy or ancient oriental languages, although there are almost no "jobs" out there for philosophers or for people who can read Ancient Assyrian. But surely also they will find their place in life --- somehow, somewhere --- after they have studied what they have enjoyed.
It also helps to view the so-called "Computer Science" as a broader Methodology of systematic logical problem-solving. Edsger Dijkstra once famously said: "Calling our science >Computer Science< is like
calling medical surgery >Knife Science
with informatics it's feels the same:
the science of processing data for storage and retrieval; information science.
to the whole knife computer science arg which's nice but using even informatika (as we call it here) is not the answer i belive
This is cool. Thanks!
I’ll stop reading the comments here, thanks dude for expressing that, amazing analogy, the reality is that people focus on money more than their passion, but people who makes more money were always the ones focusing on their passion
@@andrebatista8501to some extent, it is good to pursue your passion.. but not in an irresponsible manner. You need to find a way to make a living / support your future family. Please, be realistic before dropping out of school to try and be a famous rockstar or something. For every 1 that you will tell me succeeded, there are 500,000 more who tried it and now are homeless bums smoking cigarettes and doing drugs
I chose to major in CS for the last three years because I thought it would lead to a well-paid job. I don’t hate it, but it’s not my passion either. There are other things I enjoy more than CS, but I picked this field because of the money. Now I’m sad because it seems like it will be replaced soon.
I'm still going through my CS degree and pursuing a promising career in the industry and to me. Yes, it will make things like getting a job much more complicated than it already is, but I don't see a point in worrying and freaking out about it. it will happen with or without me whether I like it or not. so to me, I see it as an interesting challenge to overcome just like every challenge I had to overcome to get where I am today, and I choose to welcome it
im in my 3rd week of my cs degree and seeing all this stuff has got me worried !
@@hartlessforever I was going to do a cs degree this upcoming fall but now i'm most likely switching to something else. I think forest saying "but this is just my opinion" is like a fallback . I think he knows that there will be no new wave of jr devs. It's like a self fulfilling prophecy. People are scared of ai taking their cs related jobs so they don't go into cs which in turn makes ai more useful because there will be less people trying to break into the scene. It's really like something out of a movie. These people who spend billions of dollars furthering this ai thing are not thinking about life after their lifetime. If you could travel back in time to even 2000, and show someone whats going on now I think they would be so horrified and scared. I know I would
@@nevanncopeland8093 I absolutely respect your decision but honestly, i’m going to push full force. I’m going to take all of this as a plus, because no matter what there will still be a need for developers and designers at the end of the day. If there’s less and less people trying to break in, that just means there’s less competition. I’m definitely all in if that’s the case. I’m not going to let this AI scare me away from doing what I want to do, Im just going to learn how to leverage it to the best of my ability and hope it all works out in the end.
@@nevanncopeland8093 just be aware... there are no jobs AI will not impact over the next twenty years. I wouldn't sweat it.
@@hartlessforeverthanks bro, am Kenyan , full stack web developer, WordPress developer too, you gave me hope😂, always dreamt of going overseas, but with ai, my hopes had started fading abit
finally someone says it out loud. Junior devs will be hurt. For almost every profession there will be VERY FEW entry-level jobs.
HOW DOES ANYONE GET STARTED!?!?!
you have to go from Zero to Hero before the job interview.
As you said; it's actually an age old problem. Manual labor gets automated and requires less and less human workforce. The thing we forget: such technologies should actually replace our work hours in such a way that we have more time for the complex tasks of life. What they now do is replace our work but also our income, which basically means game over in capitalism. In general i would assume that AI will mostly empower an even smaller group of people, at least in the long run after "we plebs played enough" with AI.
That's the REAL problem, the world becomes controlled by a tiny group of extremely self interested people. THAT's the nightmare everyone should be trembling about. What we need is a _social_ change. This problem is not one technology can solve, it's one that needs social change to solve, because it's about power in a political sense.
@@shimrrashai-rc8fq this
As someone considering CS in September late in life (30) - this is demotivating. I worked blue collar jobs for my 20's and it was hell. I enjoy the type of work as a hobby or on my own stuff, but as a career - no way. So, here I am making the change and it feels like I'll hit a wall again..
same here-- mid 20s and feeing defeated. i was considering going back to school for cs since the only remotely financial stable job i can do with my bfa is become an underpaid lecture at uni, but even those positions require a masters. class registration for next fall just opened but then i came across this video and am self doubting my choices again.. i just really want job stability and to be able to be financially independent but it seems like there really is no such thing anywhere anymore unless you go into healthcare
😂 no one cares
@@Rust_Rust_Rust The letter I got from your mother in the mail the other day says otherwise?
@@WatchThis0101 Mail from my mother? Is this the early 20th century? 🤣 AI will surely take your job you 🅳🅸🅼🆆🅸🆃
@@Rust_Rust_Rust nobody asked
The main problem we will have to deal with in the future is the complete replacement of juniors in all aspects of our lives. I had the opportunity to try the GPT-4, and I am intimidated. It started with my question about German grammar. The AI explained one of the tenses in German to me better and faster than my teacher (who has been a teacher for over 15 years). In my opinion, right now we need to focus on producing managers and developers so that the world economy doesn't collapse so quickly. This reminds me of the Great Depression in most countries, while the poor developed countries survived (as they always did). I think we will destroy each other and the 4th "world war" will be like a dogfight in the dark streets.
Maybe is the inverse, why would you pay a senior if you can have all the deep theory and experiense with AI, controled with a capable "junior" for a fraction of the salary...
@@akazicprod Purely for safety reasons and to improve the customer experience. AI is a tool that should help, not completely destroy the human role. I believe that with AI, companies should improve their service as best they can. This requires a good AI operator who understands everything the AI gives him. Junior doesn't have that knowledge, and little mistakes or mistakes can make a customer not be happy with the service. Perhaps your point of view will be relevant when GPT-8 comes out, but at the moment (even GPT-4) makes small misfires, especially if it is related to the stuffing of the services. (But maybe it's my inner perfectionist who isn't happy.)
Lmao you're clueless.
If you replace all juniors, won’t there be a time when just no one knows how a thing is done?
When an entire generation of college grads can’t get a junior role for example, then all the seniors are gone
@@anthonylin8888 This is what I was actually trying to explain
I think we've forgotten something major in all this. There's a huge portion of the IT market that exists just to put bums on seats. They actively endorse tech frameworks that require more programmers they can hire out. They will probably fight tooth and nail against this until more AI experts are required than the programmers it was set to erase.
A.I. will manage A.I. Won't need human bums. Super A.I. will manage entire corporations. It's over.
I'm not a professional software developer but I love coding as an hobbyist and the AI taking over the coding job sounds really scary for the most of them out there..😢
I partially agree with you. I dont think programmers will ever become "project managers" only, because there are a lot of problems that require a lot more work than just writing code: perhaps you need to implemment a complex algorithm to ensure efficiency, or you have to use math to solve it and then code your answer. Thats why i think that until TRUE AGI is created there will be a need for programmers (and honestly, if AGI is created, then it will be capable of replacing EVERY job) and i dont see us doing it, at least for the next 20 years. But i do think that there will be a higher skill barrier: if a company needed 10 software engineers to perform a task, now it only needs 3 REALLY good ones to do it.
You know... I've caught myself getting wrapped up in my pride that I can code and that I think my identity is wrapped up in that some, but I have realized that my ability to code is not what defines me. I am capable of doing different things than coding. I think I've just become kind of complacent over time in my work and I've let coding define me, but coding is not the end all be all. There will be something that comes after coding, which hopefully I'm capable of, and can do to support my family. And then there will be something after that, and after that... We'll keep evolving as humans, and that's okay. It's just about rolling with the punches as they come. But that can be hard.
Thanks for saving me from an existential crises random internet stranger!
That, my friend, is an inspiring attitude. Best of luck, no matter your future path.
well said my friend. Trust in God, our identity is in Him.
Dude that’s my thing too. I am like frantically searching for what I can learn now to identify with since there won’t be code anymore. I need to chill for real.
At 1st, I believe you're correct. There will eventually be less need for developers at around 3-5 years. After 5-10 years, there will eventually be less need for project managers that monitor those processes.
The difference in comparing tractors or kiosks is that those cannot reproduce themselves. This CAN (eventually). It can literally take on new info and learn and eventually create a better version of itself. There is really no comparison other than human beings. We are in unknown territory here.
By this time it doesn’t there is no need for software engineers. I think there are going to be plenty good jobs but in AI ! For example in AI security.
One of google’s AI already gave birth lol
@@geelws8880 😂😂😂
Thankfully project management is sector agnostic
Many computer science majors who aim to be software engineers don't think they will need classes like math and physics, and just do the minimum in those subjects. But mastering these more foundational subjects put you in a better position to become an innovator when the industry goes through changes.
Ai is good at mastering these thing too.
@@HybridHumaan I meant proof-based thinking and problem solving , rather than plug and chug into equations (that computers already do without AI). Two things I'll say are: (1) current AI models are not good at these tasks, and (2) the point of a proof or problem analysis is to convince yourself and others that a conclusion is correct, and because AI spits things out that resemble correct responses but has no logical thought process to check through them, it's poorly suited for these tasks in the long term too. Coding works because code that performs the right function is an objective to train (coding is more like solving equations).
Non-compsci here, how are maths and physics related to software engineering ?
@@user-jy5qm8nc9m I don't have any relation to Robotics(yet) but for example if you want to program a robot to move it's hands, you need to understand linear algebra to make the robot know what movement you want it to make, understand physics to calculate how things will actually work depending on the Robot's body and environment, there are also calculus functions used in these calculations, of course you could use pre written code by someone else but if you wanted to write your own code, you got to understand these things.
@@user-jy5qm8nc9m I design and write software for biomed machines at work. In order to achieve the product's goal, I have to design & implement coded solutions that work around physics concepts like light diffraction, thermodynamics, and electromagnetics. If I were not knowledgeable in these areas, I would end up writing code that would result in the product's catastrophic failure (badly interpreted sensor readings, melting parts, EM noise issues, etc).
Not knowing how to read code relying on AI, can turn into a situation like kids these days not being able to read cursive writing. I think this alarm in the tech industry will dismay many people from learning to code seeking other industries making coders more valuable in the long run.
Interesting perspective but what is the value of learning to read cursive and why would I be more valuable if I did?
This analogy, like yourself, is outdated and pretty much pointless.
Cope
@@Squidward558 he is just coping, all the people that worked their asses off to be a coder are getting replaced, only the people that can properly mix codes and make it run the right way will exist, and the rest of the AI will do it for you.
@@tonyazzaro9593 whatever old lady
It is scary because these ai tools keep on learning,so i am not sure if it is possible to be 100% sure they won't take even the senior dev jobs
Who’s going to prompt the ai?
It will take on. Maybe the only role humans will play is to be accountable for approving some changes the ai generates.
@@TheRealDTVbusiness people, or stakeholders that request things to the IT teams now.
There's so much more than coding. AI can generate code, ok, but what about the DATA? A lot of logic exists in the DB layer as well. Most projects harmonize several technologies in order to satisfy a feature. It's hard to say that AI will be aware to handle all these things. Just my thoughts.
@@Ovinski I watched another video recently, in that this GPT4 did manage to harmonize technologies, maybe it's unaware of few tools at the moment but its constantly learning at a rapid pace everyday. Also this new development of Image recognition, audio recognition is just a stepping stone for the AI learning curve, with the initial trial run it showed marvelous results, It even automatically picks up the "context" of a local meme that only my community can relate to. Knowing this capability i was stunned and couldn't believe what it just witnessed. Imagine the future where you can live share your screen and talk to AI about your requirements. Maybe the solution it provides will not be perfect but it can always learn and rectify the mistake in a unseen fashion.
If you don’t have any junior developers anymore within a certain amount of time you won’t have any senior developers. They don’t magically pop out of the ground.
I have been thinking about this a lot as well and come to the same conclusion. There will still be a need for software developers but the job will be different and focus more on the high level overall problem, architecture, etc. Someone will need to write the tasks in Jira with the descriptions and possibly unit tests and let the AI try until it gets the tests to pass. Probably the developer role will look more like an automation engineer role or devops. There is still going to be value in knowing how to write code because at some point someone may need to open the hood and take a look at the engine. Anyway, I don't think getting your CS degree is a waste of time. You will need to get comfortable with change and embrace new technology. Your day to day will just be a little different than you had envisioned.
As a software engineer who regularly uses AI, I don't think that "coding" will disappear completely. Instead, it will evolve and change over time. As an experienced SE, I have an advantage in using AI tools like GPT-4 that many others may not possess. I'm also familiar with advanced techniques like Mermaid notation and scripting languages, which allow me to automate tasks and work more efficiently. This is the current state of the industry, and I believe it will continue to evolve in this way. As someone who has mastered these skills, I feel confident in my ability to thrive in the current job market and "win" at my career.
cope
@Wolfie-ej9ot you know it was an AI generated response?
Why does this sound like a statement you make at an interview 😭
Agreed! I am in software and see that 98% of the stuff that people say "AI will make go away" is stuff most companies have already automated or in the process of automated. This is the problem of media mouths talking about stuff they have no clue about. This is why Accounting Departments, for example, ALREADY shrunk. Because we automated most of it away. ALREADY.
I agree with this, also maybe it will be like the time calculator were invented, which led to many companies closing. Before there are companies for calculating using abacus, my wife's grandmother's job was actually that. And according to her, her company went bankrupt 1 year after the calculator went on market. Maybe something like that will happen today.
I think what people are simply missing is that we are getting closer to AGI (artificial general intelligence), if we reach it, most if not all of humans' skills will be obsolete. This idea sounded crazy to me always, but recently I started feeling that it might become a reality very soon.
You don't need a human any more for doing almost any job with AGI.
The future is very scary and this is not just negativity but rather reality.
I feel for everyone who is feeling down, but nothing is certain and the only thing we can do is keep learning.
Exactly. The historical examples that he gave had pushed the value to cognitive/creative works instead of manual labor. AGI+robotics will make all working areas obsolete or at best the need for human labor will reduce drastically. One of the ways we redistribute wealth today is trough labor/payment but thats gonna not be sustainable in a post AGI society.
It is said Importat thing is to learn, but what should be learned? I am newly self taught someone learning Java, majored in Economics, and don't know what should we do as economics graduate. Finance was already automatized, and now it is sad to see another field (programming) is being restricted.
@what_app_1619 what do you want to talk about? and how and using what?
How appropriate the bot up there
General ai is no where near. An LLM like gpt does not understand anything. It is just a mathematical model for predicting output.
Can't wait to come back to this video in 5 years when programming jobs haven't been taken over by AI!
@@blasttrash the video title is literally "Coding won't exist in 5 years"...
@@blasttrash and being taken over by AI is still a reduction in jobs, which I doubt will happen in 5 years.
Bet
If AI takes over programming jobs then why not take over marketing, accounting and finance jobs?...or we can say AI will take everything LMAO...james camaron is right about this all along
@nananana-ph6rj Me too
Let's keep ourselves improving and searching for growth and let AI do its thing, do not waste your energy worrying about the future. We might be dead in a minute or two. Just chase the best version of yourself while you are alive because what is going to happen will happen.
Thank you, this helped steady my mind a bit.
Thanks for this comment.
I think there will be more programmers by the end of the decade by a longshot.
Generative AI is just more abstraction. More abstraction has historically only increased the access of programming.
What you're going to see is that Jr devs spend more time fiddling with the code to do something exact. Not fiddling with prompts. Maybe a Sr dev will run the prompt, but they're then going to send the output to the Jr dev to make sure it does X, Y, and Z. Passes tests A, B, and C. If these things don't happen, try to fix it. If you fail to fix it, send it back to the Sr dev.
Regular folks might setup their own automations with generative programming, rather than read "Automate the Boring Stuff with Python" to do it.
But in no way do I see there being less programmers in the future. I only see less burnout in our futures, tbh.
There will be more "programmers" and very few programing jobs
I agree with you, if have one career that has the ability to adapt to changes and AI, is the software engineer. As you said, histotically the engineers has been automated their tasks and growing the level of abstraction. Saying the developers will decrease is look against the history. Forrest Kinght is right when say the developers demnad will decrease, but just if the developers don't follow the new technologies. We already saw this behavior before, and the software engineers has the ability to adapt to changes. The compilers have grown the level of abstraction, COBOL too. In 70's, they said that "COBOL will replace all developers, business man now can build his own softwares with english grammar". What's happend ? More complex softwares. With AI is the same thing, in the future you will not build a marketplace, you will develop a system what are capable to
prevent catastrophes, and much more complex systems. For now, our concern is about the syntax of the programming languages, one day our conern will be more honorable in software engineering.
wake the fuck up lmao
Totally agree. The thing is to create a product not to love the tool(coding) . Love the product. AI will make it wayyy more easier to make the product and be your own company
I feel as if our future generations won't be coding manually as we do, but rather at incredible speeds with the use of language models or something far more powerful
Yeah, because they won’t be coding..
Connecting our jira, gitlab and gpt4 was the first idea that came to my mind when I tried it out. I think we are in for a wild ride
Great job exposing many to the historical parallels! I never learned to type because I knew voice to text would be invented someday. After 15 years, my mom's COBOL skills became obsolete and she didn't want to learn new languages. Instead she adapted to other computer uses until she retired. Today's programmers are much better prepared to adapt.
I disagree. Today's programmers are ultraspecialized. They spent years getting high specializations in a single task. That is because of the complexity of the IT systems. That was what market was demanding. Today, a software engineer will have it hard to transit into a data analyst, I can't imagine how they could do it to something even more different.
@@ESPjump You are right on some of them. Hopefully the rest learned enough critical thinking skills and built enough of the right neural pathways to adapt and transition.
I'm sure you're Mum could still get a well paying Cobol job though. They can't find them apparently.
yeah, with GPT-4 already rolled out and turned to be much, much more precise and reliable, I just think this would happen quicker than many have thought. I am no-cs engineer, but I used to write simulation for my research and write code for my daily job, and imagined to switch my career to the IT industry. Now with the generative AI announcing the new era, I am also worried how I can get an entry-level job in the industry. Nevertheless, I think there must be a place for me. My goal is to learn how to build software to solve problems. It never says I need to learn how to write every function. We just need to solve the problem, perhaps, I can do that now without really going into the tech industry.
Don’t worry whatever problem you will want to solve AI will do it in a fracture of the time and better.
@@_slickyricky lol so what’s your solution dude
revolution! we will likely need UBI
one of the main reasons I have a passion for programming is to create my own programs however I want. I dont want an AI to create it however I want.
I wanna be the one to build it from the ground up after all the years I've spent learning programming language syntax and the other neccessary skills needed to code. :(
Artists and Programmers are on a similar boat rn…
However AI was made in the programming field, y’all screwed yourselves up
The inmates are running the asylum. Programmers make the decisions about the tech stack, and always pick the most convoluted mess to prop up their resume. Yes, there will be people that try out AI, just as there are people that try out outsourcing to India or try no-code tools. Then ultimately the problems and limitations of these approaches appear which make them less practical than it would at first seem and then downright unfashionable.
Someone else has made this point but you're just like an artist.
There was a pride in believing your product was a result of your creativity, logic and innovation. Now that is being revoked from you.
I am currently a CS major and the idea of AI making software engineers obsolete makes me nervous. I am seriously considering changing my major despite my infinite love for computers.
It's a strange paradox.
We continuously automate more and more tasks, and the population keeps rising.
Yet, the unemployment rate keeps going down, or holds steady in single digit %.
you can always join them if you can't defeat them. just learn how to work with ai
@@ddotmars not a bad idea. It has crossed my mind.
A what major Will u chose if u change(sorry for the broken English)
Keep up with coding if you really love it, there will still be room for you. By the time software engineers get replaced there won't be much job security anywhere. Not to get political, but our government will have to find a way to spread the wealth generated by automating so many jobs. Our real problem will be finding meaning in a world with a lot less work, or even...without it.
As a first year CS student this concern and even unknown over job potential is very scary. I currently have a minor in entrepreneurship, but am strongly considering changing it to a double major in case there is a major shift in the market upon graduating.
I'm in the middle of a CS degree and it feels like exactly like you say in the video. Eventually the boring and repetitive tasks of programming will be replaced by AI, so in a few years time, there will be almost no need for junior devs. BUT, people with decent software development knowledge willing to develop their soft skills, are going to take up positions that require more of a human touch than a programming/analytical touch. Scrum Master positions, project management positions, and any position that also deals with the client side.
to be fair, junior in 2023 = midle 2016. It's just will be harder to get a job
I'm from the utopian future- there are no scrum masters.
I suspect you're spot on, I'm a PhD student doing simulation software development in c++, I didn't even know how to code when I started, I only just about understand the basics and can just barely handle & and * references with some guesswork. But already with GPT3.5 I started to be able to code at a decent level as I understand the over all thing I'm trying to do, that basically let me work 10+ times faster (not an exaggeration), now GPT4 is speeding that up even further. And most importantly I always have someone (gpt) to ask when I run in to issues, and that's invaluable.
next door sales person is also doing same. asking GPT and getting things automated.
I think the big question is: When does it stop? At what point does automation take over everything to the point where there's nothing for humans to do? How do we live in a society where we are reliant on income that cannot be obtained sustainably? This has massive economic implications, especially long term.
As a software developer apprentice who wants to become an entrepreneur in the field of bioinformatics in the future that's great news. In my opinion software development is just a tool to solve problems efficiently. Now that solving problems efficiently is becoming waaay more efficient, it means that I'll be able to save thousands of hours in learning programming and especially programming itself and invest that time into learning about biology and designing solutions. Additionally it will make starting a company in that field and especially scaling it more accessible than I could have ever dreamed about, because I won't need to hire many people (which would cost a lot), as in just a few years or months one person will be able to do the job of 10 or 100 people from today. My goal is not to secure my job. My goal is to solve problems and provide value in a market that's able and willing to pay for it so that I can solve more problems and provide more value to more people. And all I see are opportunities. 😊
Exactly. The amount of good that AI will bring for human advancement is astronomical. Besides, robots doing our work for us is the start of a true utopia. We just need a universal basic income
@@theonlythingihavetosayis9333 I agree that AI will bring an astronomical amount of good things to us. On the other side, I think it will cause some harm along the way aswell, because it's so powerful. But what do you wanna do? Hide under a rock? Its increase in advancement, influence and presence in our daily life is inevitable. So you might aswell make use of it to do some good to work against the bad. 😊
It is really interesting that a few years ago IT was the most lucrative field and now students as myself are worried about finding work after graduation.
if I can't find a job, cat cafee it is lol
@@kitcat2449 I’m in IT the job market is fierce
I knew I should've been a plumber
@@imanigordon6803 I recently scored a job in Anthology (Edtech industry) and I am really happy about it mostly because I can expand my work experience while studying. I do think it would be really difficult to just graduate and apply for a job with no work experience whatsoever. Also they used FizzBuzz as one of the coding interview questions which was really funny because I watched a video on it from Tom Scott like 2 days later 😀
@@imanigordon6803 maybe in the US, in Europe it is amazing.
I believe we are shifting into Assisted Software Engineering now. Sure, there will most likely be changes to staffing on some of the tech companies. But anyone who now learns how to effectively utilize these new set of tools to their advantage, will become sought after in these next years. It don't matter wether you are a "junior" dev or "senior" dev, your ability to adapt is everything.
Basically your new job is going to be prompting these AI's.
And that won't last for long.
@@coolworx You are missing the point. Using AI as an assistant is similar to senior devs giving junior dev basic tasks to speed up development overall. AI can assist you faster than let say Stack Overflow in solving many things.
Chatgpt is not an oracle that will replace anything for now.
Is it still worth learning?
I've spent about 17 years in software development and information technology, and another 10 ish teaching computer science in college. Not only will this significantly reduce the number of developers soon, I also see many teachers (including myself). However, the ability to SOLVE problems will always have value. All STEM fields that develop your critical thinking skills will differentiate you in a culture where many don't seem to want to think for themselves anymore.
I am currently in high school. In the future (three years from now), I was thinking of majoring in CS and becoming a software engineer at university. I'm debating whether to go to medical school or study CS.
@@たいたににに Med School is more future-proof in my opinion. I love CS but this "AI-Revolution" makes you really question your job security.
@@Christian-nc4qz thank you for the advice are you a software engineer?
@@たいたににに unfortunately not by trade, I am a cs student and seeing what I have to look forward to is scary
@@ddwfw either Network Engineering or Cybersecurity being the most future proof in my opinion, you should look into ai development and big data analysis
Just my two cents though please take it with a grain of salt
I think AI like ChatGPT can definitely expedite and even replace the need for additional staff. However, in order to successfully program an app with AI you still need an understanding of the fundamentals and syntax of the language you're programming in. If you know how to program then AI makes the job almost automated lol I'm not scared. I see this as the equalizer allowing smaller companies to compete against the AAA companies without having to match the budget
You see . This man is seeing it as robots eliminating positions ina. Factory , I see it , as electricity powering a brand new industrial revolution. Now more companies will be , digital , now the IOT only expands , I’m studying to learn machine learning anyway, and want my CS degree for data science and AI .
@@metapotamus Agreed
The point is that coding itself will die. Human language and automation will replace coding. Creating software will be as simple as building a house in Minecraft. Think about it: Coding is just a primitive language to communicate with the machine. That's changing rapidly.
@@robertoflores2078 I agree with the points you've made. However, I just don't see that as a bad thing.
@@metapotamus i think that ai will also make its own coding tech in 10 years... as his code will be much more optmized and better, plus he can go over the "simplicity" we made in coding and just optimize it as hell.
I think the next question is now what do we do? How can we get ahead of this change? I’m seeing a lot of people speculate on the end of software engineering but not many predicting how to get in front of it.
Its not only software engineering though.
I went on retirement, I am 33 yo, I bought 2 apartments and now I live from cash from renting my houses. I donyt have to work anymore. Greetings from Thailand
The more I see how AI is _already_ being used in its current released state, the more I agree; the skills needed are already becoming much more high-level & will continue in that trend at an ever-increasing rate
Very interesting thoughts. What’ll happen in the future is anyone’s guess, it can be awful or great. The only thing we can say for sure is that the landscape is changing. For better or worse? We’ll have to see.
I’m also an engineer who recently started his career, so yeah the last couple of months have been hella scary, but I try to have a positive outlook on it. In the end those are tools meant to help humanity and I’m excited to see what kind of wild breakthroughs will come in fields like medicine, civil engineering and so on.
I also try to remember that if this tool is coming for my job it’s coming for everyone’s job. No one is safe, lawyers, doctors, accountants. All “doomed”, if you will. However, society can’t function if everyone’s unemployed, so almost by default I think we can be reassured there will be SOMETHING for us to do. I just hope it’s not boring lol
Same thoughts here. I’ve been teaching myself web dev for the past 6 months and this ai stuff is panic inducing. But like you said, if they’re able to replace rational or subjective thought and critical thinking then there isn’t a single job outside of manual labor that would be decimated by a.i
@@bearosophy nope ai can use its knoledge to improve itself, look at the stockfish for example(the strongest chess ai)
it was feed with chess matches and from that it start to improve itself in a level that no one els can beat it nowdays
@@bearosophy "It's mathematics, essentially." The same goes for software development. It's just a more complicated mathematical function. AI is getting there and soon it will deliver a knock-out to many people. It's the harsh truth.
This was such a great video relaying what's going on. Pretty refreshing when so many other sources of information seem to be in one camp or the other.
The only Job that remains for programmers is to create AI's, not unless AI starts creating other AI's😂💀
You can already use ai to build ai projects, soo yeah 😂
AI is already doing that. Just ask ChatGPT if AIs are doing that and it will show you how it is happening.
Google's AlphaGo Zero created its own AIs back in 2017.
Interesting point you made about AI making coding more accessible, like how languages like Python made programming more accessible. I think it is worth pointing out that this lowering of the barrier-to-entry has historically created more programming jobs, not reduce them. The amount of “programming jobs” available has more to do with demands for computing in the overall economy, and I only see that keep exploding at speeds perhaps even AI can’t match.
Yeah I think you have a point there. Hopefully it does create more jobs than the opposite.
Money printing is what creates more Useless IT jobs. Watch what happens when uncle Sam destroys the economy
The amount of "programming jobs" is dependant on how many customers need programming-stuff done. If the customer can program his own stuff via A.I., there is no need for a programer.
Dont see how this will create more programming jobs.
@@darkforcekiller Sorry, but 1) why would customer even want to do that? 2) they don't even know how technology works. Imagine customer trying to program automated car, next generation of 5G or even a washing machine :D People created Python for comfort and it's still used in a very limited way, because as it turned out every tool has its disadvanatages. We still code in C/C++ despite all this time and all these new inventions.
@@phoearwenien4355 1) Because its cheaper? An A.I. doesnt need to get paid, you know.
2) Not sure what you mean by "They dont know how technology works".
By the way, with customers i mean companies and not some single person.
Interesting video! I’d like to add another perspective.
One potential hurdle for things like GPT (that I don’t think has received enough attention) is it’s power consumption and hardware requirements to train.
GPT used (I believe) 1.287 gigawatts of power and 10k GPUs to develop…in a future with chip/energy shortages and supplychain retractions, I’m not sure if ‘exponential growth’ is really sustainable given these figures. So we might be fine😅
Great video!✌️
It will get cheaper and cheaper to train these models.
You forget that GPUs are improving every year!
@@mantas9827 Why would it become cheaper. If you add more power, more capabilities, more nodes, more X, it can be only more expensive.
Especially together with a greed of people. AI providers will want to earn good money to f best puss.
Without giving too much info online, I saw several embedded ML providers at this year's CES conference. Hardware is evolving to facilitate lower costs for compute (less energy, less memory, etc.). My bigger fear is if cloud computing monopolies artificially prop up cost for compute to maintain existing profit, as they are just "too big to fail." It'll leave a hole in the market that another country will fill, and one has already developed hardware that matches NVIDIA's performance...
As someone who got into programming through unconventional means (Environmental Science major, got into programming through GIS), and was hoping to use programming as a leg up for my job search, I'm genuinely very considered if this newfound interest and skill I have will even be worth it in the end.
It absolutely will. If you want to stay ahead of the curve, learn AI, machine and deep learning.
Leverage your environmental science background. The future may be more about mixing domain expertise with developer skills/understanding.
Having been working in ML for a bit, I can say it'll be relevant for awhile. But I see ML engineering suffering similar risks. Had an LLM help me write an NN builder template with SOLID design patterns, for example.
I have been a software developer for 15+ years...I really miss the days at the start of the millennium when developing software was...having to build stuff from scratch. There was no Github, Stack overflow and no SCRUM. It was a challenge which made it fun. What was the question again? Oh yes, coding in 5 years...with the rate of progress it gets harder and harder to make any meaningful predictions about the future, but I think that writing code will completely be done by AI and that even a lot of the design/architecture stuff including selecting the best languages/frameworks is left to AI.
yeah possibly, this also is not just going to affect programming so we can get some joy back knowing pretty much every office job will suffer with us. Once I can truly no longer have a job in tech I will be puzzled, maybe I will become carpenter, maybe go back to delivering pizzas, maybe just be unemployed.
Nope. Been a developer for 34 years. And I will be till the day my coffin is nailed shut.
I feel like the software developing sphere of getting paid a lot for doing a not so difficult job was bloated since a long time ago and something like this was bound to happen to burst it. Of course, I only mean the coding aspect, not all the other stages of the process like designing and planning which I feel will still be essential even if code is automatized. Instead of being scared, I think we should start to learn these new tools and see how can we add them to our workflow. Like ForrestKnight said, people will still need someone who knows about software to take care of it, it's just that now we don't have to concentrate our efforts in typing stuff mechanically. Also, someone has to take care of the physical devices, security, networking, low-level stuff, etc, and I don't feel like that will be automatized (at least not completely in a long while, in case something goes wrong)
"Not so difficult" job, hmm have you tried creating a whole software/website from scratch end to end. Understanding all the requirements and building a working software in the end. Coding is the hardest part of creating a software. If you don't think so then you have probably never worked as a programmer
I think a lot of these experts can actually gauge pretty well how good AIs will get, they are just completely overestimating how good humans are at certain jobs
damn, i was about to start learning web development, but when i watched a lot of videos like this I had doubts about this. I'm like really stuck, i have no idea what i want to do, what profession to choose, i don't even know what i like
If all you wanted to build were websites you were already screwed by the no-code web development tools. If you want to build web apps, there's hundreds of ways out there, and still some demand for a lot of them. I think web framework and tech stack development will have to stagnate or solidify to a standard in order for AI to have a solid base to produce practical work, but I don't see that happening as everyone and their dog thinks they can build a better framework....Including me.
With the new release of GPT-4 and seeing how chatGPT is now on steroids, I find the line “software engineers won't become obsolete (yet) but heavily reduced” to be thought provoking (in a scary way) and kinda comforting at the same time
How is it at all comforting? lol
Higher standards for entry level jobs is "comforting"? Maybe, but that'll just introduce even more brain teaser interview questions that lead companies nowhere...
bruh
@@caseypdx503 I love the USP Suckless have for their window manager DWM, it wraps up the 'why' quite elegantly
"Because dwm is customized through editing its source code, it's pointless to make binary packages of it. This keeps its user base small and elitist. No novices asking stupid questions.."
So many good things get ruined whenever normalfags enter the scene. As much as I despise gAI, at least it'll cleanse the market
@@caseypdx503 he must be a shareholder in some software companies
I agree with the fact that the software development workforce will shrink in size over the next decade. Those who remain will work differently then we do today. While most will be directing AI controlled code generators, some will be developing new ideas. At the moment AI still is generally a probabilistic machine, Currently most AI models can only generate code they have seen before, whether in whole or part. So, for a few more years someone will have to be writing code to do new things. At some point in the future however, AI will get better at putting pieces together. The one thing AI wont be able to do for a while is create new ideas with out someone prompting it. When that feature arises, most human jobs will be taken over by AI. This leads to an even bigger question of what do you do with the humans who are replaced by AI? When all these jobs go away, where does the future of humanity go? What do they do? How do they earn an income? Will we all be wards of the state? or will we find a new niche to fill?
I still remember having to cook meals in the kitchen, on the stove or in the oven. No fast food existed and a hand full of dinners and restaurants existed , but only in large cities. Now, everywhere you go you can find fast food! I recall party lines (You had to share a phone line with your neighbors, and could only make calls when they weren't using the phone.), now everyone carries a phone (and what would have been a super computer) in their pockets! So much has changed in my lifetime, I now wonder how it must have been for my grandparents who lived with horse draw wagons and saw the automobile and aircraft come into existence. At my age now, I wonder what life on earth (or wherever humans may live) will be like? The only thing you can count on is change. Soon, no one will remember programming, it will be something you ask your personal computing device to do for you. Just as few people being born today will never learn to drive. I suspect that cars wont even have the ability to be driven by humans soon. I think those younger than I would do well to ponder such changes and prepare for them. Governments, and societies as a whole should to. about every 50 years a huge change in society and human existence occurs. It's time to think about what AI means and how it will change your world!
Rule one of programming “Never copy and paste code you don’t know what it does”. The problem with AI code is, even if it could paste it into a repo and deploy, you are relying on the person asking the AI to get all the requirements correct, which never happens, also if you can’t read the code and don’t know what it does, there will bugs.
You could manually code the unit tests to verify
@@blubblubee Well writing tests is still considered coding, but this misses the fundamental issue, someone has to still review the code to understand what it does, and that takes a programmer.
The multiple issues that have happened over the course of half a century from people putting code into production that they didn’t know what it does, wont magically go away even if AI writes it. So someone still will have to read and understand what the code does and if it meets all the requirements before it can be used, and if you think AI can be trusted to check the work of an other AI then you have not worked with computers enough.
@@ryangrow1 I am just an occasional tinkerer, so I don't want to presume to know better, but I do think you are kind of wrong about this. I have already seen AI adding comments to code and that is something I am excited for, and this will only keep getting better. I would even wager that the advancement of AI explaining code will outpace AI writing consistently good code, and that, in the mid-term, AI will actually be a lot better at it than most if not all humans.
Writing comments is an undervalued skillset that I appreciate because I am so bad at it, but there are a lot of seasoned programmers that also struggle writing comments with consistent quality and uniformity. The conventions on commenting code are extremely loose to nonexistent, depending on the language, so inevitably, we are biased in a way to write comments in terms that we understand more than maybe others will.
(Truth be told, even my future self can barely understand half the comments that I write to them because when one is *IN* the code, then it all just makes sense, yeah?)
I think what we will be seeing is AI-generated, dynamic commenting to suit the individual needs of the person reviewing the code. A 'project manager' may want to know what the code does and a learner may want to know how the code works. What a 'senior developer' might find bloated may be just right for a 'junior developer'. Someone who has been working on a project for a while may not need all functionality spelled out the way someone who is reviewing code for the first time might.
And here's a trippy thing: AI may write comments for itself and for other AI in order to save on processing time. What that might look like exactly is hard to fathom.
It's also important to keep in mind that, in order to increase run times, the programming "code" itself may eventually be a generated abstraction of the binary that the AI 'sees' and works on directly. This means that we'll have to ask, "What would this look like in C?" "What would this look like in python?" "What would this look like in Scheme?" "What would this look like in Assembly?" Okay, let's agree to skip that last one.
I totally get if this seems farfetched, but give it time, and I will be vindicated, haha!! X-D
I keep seeing people look for future employment that is truly "safe from AI" in the long-term, but the reality is that the only things AI can't replace are creative ownership and the knowledge that one is talking to another human being. Assuming Skynet doesn't happen first, even AI safety and monitoring will largely if not completely be replaced by AI at some point in the future. This isn't even speculation. Think it through, and I think you will come to the same conclusion. The only question is time. There is a reason this video only covers a 5-10 year period.
This is a great time for people to pull up a chair and read Bob Black's The Abolition of Work (1991). Late capitalism is going to cling on for dear life, and there is going to be a lot of suffering in the years ahead, but it will end.
@Inspector Gadget I am not sure what a 20+ year old news show has to do with AI, but hey if you guys all want to jump on the bandwagon of “this is end of programers” be my guest, I just don’t think it is true.
@@ryangrow1 To be honest, I predict the age of rampant hacking and system exploits. It will truly be brutal imo.
You have great insight. I’m a systems development manager and work with a team of 4. I think you’re absolutely right on this but looking at the rate of rollout and integration I think this may happen sooner than 5 years. I feel for those completing their degrees looking to enter their first position as a junior dev. The landscape is going to change very quickly. Not sure what I think about what my job might become. I foresee spending a lot of time in Devops! One thing I hope is that the interface will be different for us with less of a need to sit at a desk and instead of just filling the time producing more code and features, it will require fewer hours and give back more time to people who work in this industry. Utopian I know but the focus on wellbeing is changing how companies look after employees, for the better. awesome videos, keep them coming!
I think companies will have the chance(and need) to start experimenting more. And with the help of ai this will become significantly less expensive and time consuming. This could be one way to still provide job opportunities for sw devs. while increasing competitiveness. Could also be just a lot of cope from my side though ^^
*"...it will require fewer hours and give back time"* lmaooo. It will translate to less hiring, firings, and layoffs. Only management and owners win.
I can see the ai replacing very entry-level programmers but I doubt AI will have the problem-solving and creative capabilities needed to actually design a program anytime soon
if were to gain this ability then we would be at a place where it would be able to do tons of services for us. humans in general would be obsolete.
Why not? So much of github is open source with more or less complex code bases and you give a good AI even more datasets than just github it will start to have the capabilities of building real programs and not just lines of code
@@Hennesg you could use that same logic for entry level. Should juniors start demanding senior salary’s because they can access large complex code bases to riff off. Chat gpt is massively overrated and humans are underrated. No computer has to achieve what the average human brain can.
I just love the sneaky sponsor ads in between the content mixed with YT ads
maybe a future where programming becomes like a niche skill that everyone is taught in school , pretty much the same skill that you have to write an essay on a topic, now you can just ask the ai to make the code and ask it to change it in any way you want. Like you said, basic knowledge is enough and no need to understand the complex processes behind it.
a team of 20 programmer would be reduced to like 2 or 3. Same goes to any other sectors as well.
Seeing some posts on my fb feed about how chat gpt4 made and launched an amazing marketing where it did all content writing and boosting. So a lot of other sectors are gonna change too. Sucks since I am in college studying IT :(
So excited to see what GTC brings, my hope is to get to work on developing AI before my programming becomes obsolete elsewhere haha
Thinking the same.
the problem is that ai is already starting to code ai lol. and remember all of this has become an issue in less than a year, imagine 5 years. strap in its going to be crazy
This is EXACTLY what my thought was. Well, the worst hit will be the junior devs, hope I and other people will find something else before the apocalypse. *PS: Damn I sound like a conspiracy theorist*
Starting of programming was fun for me because you were constantly learning but after decades of programming everything just started to seem routine. Many problems have already been solved these days where we are just using various different libraries instead of having to create them.
I'm a software engg student with 1 year left in my degree and I've worked in a mid-sized comp as a junior for a year and a half. It might be over optimistic, or copium but I truly still believe I have a chance to succeed in the industry, because I think in the short term I can use these tools to amplify my existing skills to a senior dev.
Like I've been using it in my design patterns class which I used to hate with a passion because we had to code everything in java, and I was someone who in my job used C#. I can use the AI to basically translate concepts and what I wanted to be done to then be done speeding up the pain of having to code in a language I have little experience in.
For work it's great when I'm stuck on a problem and would normally have to resort to googling things, but when I describe my problem to an AI it avoids the need to browse different stack overflow questions and ask if the question even relates to the problem I have. I can get a solution with as much context as I desire.
Also I can use it to write scripts in stuff I'm not familiar with like bash scripts. Once I wanted to write a script to automate a hack to fix an issue with the build where I just deleted the bin folder of a project and rebuilt it. I did that in way less time than it would have took me to research how to delete a file in bash or how to move around and call other bash scripts.
For my personal projects I've used it to guide me on what to develop. I needed to seriously refactor one of my larger classes in a React app. I don't have any experience in any enterprise level React, so I have no idea what to even do and my code kinda just remained a mess. With it I was able to understand a lot of the techniques, like higher order components or custom hooks by getting examples of them being applied on my own code.
There's even more applications I haven't even tried yet like using it as a digital aristotle to test my comprehension of some subjects, using it to summarize textbooks and articles, or using it to improve my writing skills (which are insanely poor. I usually feel like I write like english is my second language even though it's literally not).
Overall, I just feel like I get results quicker which has turned into a positive feedback loop where I'm more motivated to work and learn. I think it's healthier to use it as self improvement-tool rather than go into doomerism (or worse trying to drag others down to it).
good luck
keep coping, new graduates are the most in danger, if your job can be done "faster", people like you are less needed. Not a hard concept to understand
This sentiment has been repeated throughout history. I agree with you. The part that people are missing is that it means that companies are going to be able to produce more software faster. That also has the benefit of lowering the cost barrier for startups for new software companies. The jobs will still be there, and perhaps developers may not be able to demand the high salaries,but it also will create another industry. Gotta adapt.
If anyone can make something easy and fast it looses its value.
If creating software becomes super easy and cheap, the value of the end product will also get lower. Then creativity, that can beat other AI generated stuff will win.....
Love your succinct explanation of the future of AI in software engineering field.
I have been programming for many years now and Chat-GPT had me really worried about all the software jobs that it was going to make obsolete.
But for the first time, I think the way you explained the practical implementation of it in a actual sprint cycle and the how a new joiner learns the code base from it, forms a very realistic picture of the future that I can envision 5 years from now.
I'm currently working with poor database (as an intern) which makes me wonder if the age of AI will not introduce really flawed design as well as security risks.
One of my "database" class was honestly closer to a math class and I'm really hoping to learn more in the future as there's probably a lot I don't see yet.
Though it really opened my eyes. For that reason I am not too scared.
The truth is anyone can code these days. AI or not, WYSIWYG tools have been developing steadily. Frameworks and serverless are already abstracring all the details. To me, coding was already long dead.
We are simply lowering the barrier to entry even more which means there's gonna so many more people not knowing the heck they're doing.
Clearly that means there's gonna be so many opportunities when it comes to assessing designs as well as mitigating vulnerabilities left by a lack of knowledge of the nitty gritty.
I consider AI is the opportunity to focus on modeling more.
It's really worrying. For now it's a fun hobby I enjoy and I think it's more a productive way for me to spend my time. It IS depressing though because it's already hard to get a foot in the door in the industry let alone trying to learn (with the elitism of stack overflow) so it seems I just got into it too late. WELP back to playing video games and waiting for the sweet release that only death can bring I guess.
Here are some of my thoughts about this matter that I just wanted to share. It's lengthy -- you've been warned.
I believe that there is an overlooked difference between the case of scribes being replaced by the printing press or weavers by the machinery and the prospect of programmers (or any people doing creative work, for that matter) being replaced by the AI. The former was possible due to the finite nature of the machinery. Once designed, it was possible to prove (not necessarily in the strict sense) that those machines are indeed going to work properly. The blueprints could be analyzed by the engineers, and the prototypes tested. It's important to note that in the case of machinery, extensive testing enables us to say with great confidence that it will perform well since the number of actions it performs is finite (even though the environment may vary). The same doesn't apply to AI at all. Even though the algorithms used for training are known, the final product (the model) is impossible to be tested properly given that the set of operations it performs is infinite (think of the number of possible user queries). I also believe that giving a strict mathematical proof of the correctness of the model (i.e. that it will always yield the correct answers) is impossible as well; I don't have a compelling argument for that right now. So, my main point is that whenever we need the confidence that the system will work properly, human insight is unavoidable. This means that we will still need people to be able to exhaustively analyze the AI's output. The knowledge of programming languages, system design and everything that we associate with programing is not going to lose in value.
The TL:DR - "This means that we will still need people to be able to exhaustively analyze the AI's output. The knowledge of programming languages, system design and everything that we associate with programing is not going to lose in value." - Yes, my thoughts exactly.
Agreed. I would like to point out though that this would create a situation where you only need highly skilled devs which is actually detrimental for upcoming people because that easily makes them lose confidence and motivation. In other words the learning curve and time becomes much steeper to reach the point where you become the person who is hired for human insight of the code produced by AI
Nice emphasis on infinite output. About output supervision though, under what error rate of another independent AI supervisor shall we replace the human part completely? Ultimately we will enter another paradox but just not that soon.
@@cken27 Exactly this. People that say AI needs human supervision "forever" seem to vastly overestimate human capability which is nothing compared to the AGI we are talking about.
Here’s some advice, someone who understands computer science, coding, etc is going to be a better “prompter” than someone who doesn’t understand what a string or function is. Don’t quit computer science, if anything generative ai should light a fire under you.