So the Clair fight, First off when the AI selects moves it's basically random, but after applying a series of AI modifications it may or may not select from their entire movepool before randomly choosing a move. Clair has the following AI modifications: Basic, Smart, Setup, Aggressive, Cautious, Status, and Risky Kingdra has the following moveset: Surf, DragonBreath, SmokeScreen, and Hyper Beam Quick Recap of the battle ignoring everything up to Kingdra since it was all OHKOs, [1] Kingdra used SmokeScreen, got hit (still above half) and speed dropped by Icywind [2] avoided Confuse Ray and used SmokeScreen [3] avoided Confuse Ray and used SmokeScreen [4] was confused by Confuse Ray and used SmokeScreen [5] gets tickeled by HP Fire and uses SmokeScreen as it breaks out of confusion (terrible confuse RNG BTW) [6] Starmie misses Surf and Kingdra used SmokeScreen (#6 so Starmie now has min ACC) [7] Starmie uses Icywind and puts Kingdra below half to about 25% and Kingdra wastes a turn using SmokeScreen [8] Clair heals with a Hyper Potion, IcyWInd does 1/3 and speed drops again [9] Icy Wind misses while Clair continues to SmokeScreen [10] Icy Wind hits taking Kingdra to between 1/4 and 1/2 HP while Kingdra finally uses Hyper Beam [11] Kingdra is KOed by Icy Wind before it can recharge. {1}Basic checks to see if each move is "redundant" none are (it's a special list). It then checks for status moves and discourages them if you already have a status, again none are. Then it checks for Safeguard specifically, again nothing happens. Ergo P(SmokeScreen) = 25% for now. {2}Setup actually does something, since smokescreen is a stat-decreasing move (I think not sure how accuracy moves are treated in gen 2) as such if it is your pokemon's first turn then there is a 50% chance it will be encouraged, however when it is not your first turn there is a 87.5% chance it will be discouraged. This should stop Clair from spamming SmokeScreen, but we still have quite a few AI mods to go. Right now on turn 1 there is a 50% chance to always use smokescreen and otherwise it rolls between all 4 moves evenly so a total P(SmokeScreen)||(T=1) = 62.5% and since it is discouraged after turn 1, P(SmokeScreen)||(T>1) = 3.125%. {3}Aggressive checks each damaging move and discourage all damaging moves (it ignores SmokeScreen) that are not the highest BP and aren't "Reckless" (which are Explosion/SelfDestruct, Outrage/Thrash/Petal Dance, and all mulit-hit moves) so that discourages Surf and DragonBreath. Now P(SmokeScreen)||(T=1) = 75% and P(SmokeScreen)||(T>1) = 6.25%. {4}Cautious checks for moves with "residual effects" like Leech Seed or Focus Energy, so no effect. {5}Status looks at status moves and discourages the AI from using them if the opponent is immune, no effect. {6}Risky is used for SelfDestruct/Explosion and OHKO moves, which may seem to do nothing but it actually encourages all damaging moves IF they KO the opponent (BTW it does the whole damage calc and is super cheaty), since at no time would any of her moves KO Starmie, nothing happens. Smart is where things get a little dumb as it has 67 protocols. I'll skip all the the ones that do nothing for brevity. {7}For accuracy lowering moves they are encouraged 70% of the time if the opponent's HP is full (it was until the final turn where Kingdra had to recharge) and Kingdra's HP is >1/2 it was for all except the heal turn [8] and Recharge turn [11], The remaining 30% of the time it checks to see if their evasion > your accuracy (it was for T>1) and discourages the move! On the heal turn [8] it checked if your HP was 1 since you lowered Kingdra's speed with Icywind on the first turn. This means P(SmokeScreen)||(T=1) = 100%, P(SmokeScreen)||(T!=1,8,11) = 31.21% {9} This is the big one HyperBeam specifically gets encouraged 50% of the time if they are under 1/4 HP, nothing happens if they are between 1/4 and 1/2, and if they are above 1/2 it has a 84% chance to be discouraged and then an additional 50% chance to be discouraged again. This means P(SmokeScreen)||(T=1) = 100%, P(SmokeScreen)||T(!=1,8,11) = .0875 + 0.0261 + 0.0098 + 0.2058 + 0.1029 + 0.0021 + 0.0008 = 43.5% Now the probability of her using it 7 times in a row isn't great, about 0.3%, but that's not insanely low either about as likely as flipping 8 heads in a row. Also I'm not sure if {2} Setup works with SmokeScreen, if it doesn't the probabilities change quite a bit, P(SmokeScreen)||(T!=1, 8,11) = 72.94% which happening 7 times in a row is a lot more likely about 11% which is slightly less likely then 3 heads in a row. So yeah poor interaction between Smart's hatred of Hyper Beam and Risky not liking anything weaker then Hyper Beam. Dragon Breath's parachance should help it, but the chance of getting it is much lower than Smart's love of Status moves when the enemy is high HP and the user is not about to KOed.
"Because Poison Sting has 100% chance to poison if the AI uses it." Yeah it felt like that to me when I got hit by Poison Sting in Pokemon gen 1 & 2. 😢😢😢🤣🤣🤣
Alright, don't wanna guess at the final time but I will guess at the final moveset. I'm thinking surf, tbolt, I-beam, and psychic. Its fun when I'm right and even more fun when I'm wrong. Can't wait to see how this goes!
Boy does that slow growth rate really hold the Staryu line back. I have to imagine it'd be faster, if not easier, with a medium slow growth rate. Especially in the early game where Staryu seemed to struggle the most.
I've never seen Kingdra use Smokescreen so much in a row! Usually it uses Surf, but I guess the AI move choice was sort of random since I guess it saw you Resisted it.
That's exactly the Hidden Power type I've selected for Starmie on the redo stream when it comes out, I reckon getting that STAB Psychic damage would've benefitted us more in the long run.
@@Squidgy STAB water will carry you through the johto storyline. Might as well get either HP Grass, Electric or Ice(if you don't like running icy wind on your moveset)
hey squidgy, I think crystal is cool, but I think gen 3 is much more fun to watch, specifically fire red. emerald is terrible to watch/do because of liza and tate but fire red + post game is hella fun to watch
Both Gen III regions have their flaws for challenge running - Intimidate screws over any chance of a Physical attacker doing well in Kanto, and Hoenn is VERY long and tedious! I'll be doing my best to make fun content with both regions, though!
I've had a little look at my schedule - I've got another Water type coming out early next month, but I'll add Tentacruel to my next batch of recordings :)
Doesn’t 3-drill have male beedrills? So they wouldn’t produce honey. Unless he keeps the females at home. Or maybe I’m just reading way too much into this.
@@Squidgy I was thinking Leavanny, mostly due to it being my favorite Pokémon It has a terrible defensive type combo but I feel like its attack and speed stats could compensate for that But I'd understand if it'd be too difficult to backport/do a run with
So the Clair fight,
First off when the AI selects moves it's basically random, but after applying a series of AI modifications it may or may not select from their entire movepool before randomly choosing a move.
Clair has the following AI modifications: Basic, Smart, Setup, Aggressive, Cautious, Status, and Risky
Kingdra has the following moveset: Surf, DragonBreath, SmokeScreen, and Hyper Beam
Quick Recap of the battle ignoring everything up to Kingdra since it was all OHKOs,
[1] Kingdra used SmokeScreen, got hit (still above half) and speed dropped by Icywind
[2] avoided Confuse Ray and used SmokeScreen
[3] avoided Confuse Ray and used SmokeScreen
[4] was confused by Confuse Ray and used SmokeScreen
[5] gets tickeled by HP Fire and uses SmokeScreen as it breaks out of confusion (terrible confuse RNG BTW)
[6] Starmie misses Surf and Kingdra used SmokeScreen (#6 so Starmie now has min ACC)
[7] Starmie uses Icywind and puts Kingdra below half to about 25% and Kingdra wastes a turn using SmokeScreen
[8] Clair heals with a Hyper Potion, IcyWInd does 1/3 and speed drops again
[9] Icy Wind misses while Clair continues to SmokeScreen
[10] Icy Wind hits taking Kingdra to between 1/4 and 1/2 HP while Kingdra finally uses Hyper Beam
[11] Kingdra is KOed by Icy Wind before it can recharge.
{1}Basic checks to see if each move is "redundant" none are (it's a special list). It then checks for status moves and discourages them if you already have a status, again none are. Then it checks for Safeguard specifically, again nothing happens. Ergo P(SmokeScreen) = 25% for now.
{2}Setup actually does something, since smokescreen is a stat-decreasing move (I think not sure how accuracy moves are treated in gen 2) as such if it is your pokemon's first turn then there is a 50% chance it will be encouraged, however when it is not your first turn there is a 87.5% chance it will be discouraged. This should stop Clair from spamming SmokeScreen, but we still have quite a few AI mods to go. Right now on turn 1 there is a 50% chance to always use smokescreen and otherwise it rolls between all 4 moves evenly so a total P(SmokeScreen)||(T=1) = 62.5% and since it is discouraged after turn 1, P(SmokeScreen)||(T>1) = 3.125%.
{3}Aggressive checks each damaging move and discourage all damaging moves (it ignores SmokeScreen) that are not the highest BP and aren't "Reckless" (which are Explosion/SelfDestruct, Outrage/Thrash/Petal Dance, and all mulit-hit moves) so that discourages Surf and DragonBreath. Now P(SmokeScreen)||(T=1) = 75% and P(SmokeScreen)||(T>1) = 6.25%.
{4}Cautious checks for moves with "residual effects" like Leech Seed or Focus Energy, so no effect.
{5}Status looks at status moves and discourages the AI from using them if the opponent is immune, no effect.
{6}Risky is used for SelfDestruct/Explosion and OHKO moves, which may seem to do nothing but it actually encourages all damaging moves IF they KO the opponent (BTW it does the whole damage calc and is super cheaty), since at no time would any of her moves KO Starmie, nothing happens.
Smart is where things get a little dumb as it has 67 protocols. I'll skip all the the ones that do nothing for brevity.
{7}For accuracy lowering moves they are encouraged 70% of the time if the opponent's HP is full (it was until the final turn where Kingdra had to recharge) and Kingdra's HP is >1/2 it was for all except the heal turn [8] and Recharge turn [11], The remaining 30% of the time it checks to see if their evasion > your accuracy (it was for T>1) and discourages the move! On the heal turn [8] it checked if your HP was 1 since you lowered Kingdra's speed with Icywind on the first turn.
This means P(SmokeScreen)||(T=1) = 100%, P(SmokeScreen)||(T!=1,8,11) = 31.21%
{9} This is the big one HyperBeam specifically gets encouraged 50% of the time if they are under 1/4 HP, nothing happens if they are between 1/4 and 1/2, and if they are above 1/2 it has a 84% chance to be discouraged and then an additional 50% chance to be discouraged again.
This means P(SmokeScreen)||(T=1) = 100%, P(SmokeScreen)||T(!=1,8,11) = .0875 + 0.0261 + 0.0098 + 0.2058 + 0.1029 + 0.0021 + 0.0008 = 43.5%
Now the probability of her using it 7 times in a row isn't great, about 0.3%, but that's not insanely low either about as likely as flipping 8 heads in a row. Also I'm not sure if {2} Setup works with SmokeScreen, if it doesn't the probabilities change quite a bit,
P(SmokeScreen)||(T!=1, 8,11) = 72.94%
which happening 7 times in a row is a lot more likely about 11% which is slightly less likely then 3 heads in a row.
So yeah poor interaction between Smart's hatred of Hyper Beam and Risky not liking anything weaker then Hyper Beam. Dragon Breath's parachance should help it, but the chance of getting it is much lower than Smart's love of Status moves when the enemy is high HP and the user is not about to KOed.
That is insane. I sometimes forget just how complex the AI in the early gens is. Thanks for the full statistical breakdown of it all.
Starmie is actually excellent on playthroughs. It has a very diverse movepool especially it learns Thunderbolt, Psychic and Ice Beam ♥️♥️
I still think it does better in competitive than in game. Most useful TM it can use don't get aquire till either late game or post elite four.
Staryu: “Hiyah” of determination🔥🔥🔥!!!! 🙂
Under leveled piloswine….wonder if lance learned from him or vise versa 🤔
I’m most excited about the non-livestream backport videos, especially the ones for the Hisuian and Paldean evolutions
STAB Surf is really a good thing to have on Staryu/Starmie's side
It’s always good day when I can watch a Squidgy video.
"Because Poison Sting has 100% chance to poison if the AI uses it."
Yeah it felt like that to me when I got hit by Poison Sting in Pokemon gen 1 & 2. 😢😢😢🤣🤣🤣
Starmie is one of my favourite early gen mons. Strong, great typing, excellent coverage, and perfectly accessorized.
My prediction is everyone will have fun
Starmie is one of the few pokemon that is unaffected by attract shenanigans.
Starmie has such an amazing moveset. I love it in gen 1 as well.
Alright, don't wanna guess at the final time but I will guess at the final moveset. I'm thinking surf, tbolt, I-beam, and psychic. Its fun when I'm right and even more fun when I'm wrong. Can't wait to see how this goes!
Boy does that slow growth rate really hold the Staryu line back. I have to imagine it'd be faster, if not easier, with a medium slow growth rate. Especially in the early game where Staryu seemed to struggle the most.
I've never seen Kingdra use Smokescreen so much in a row! Usually it uses Surf, but I guess the AI move choice was sort of random since I guess it saw you Resisted it.
I can't help but think hidden power psychic might have been better overall. I could be wrong but fire made you lack ways to deal with water types
That's exactly the Hidden Power type I've selected for Starmie on the redo stream when it comes out, I reckon getting that STAB Psychic damage would've benefitted us more in the long run.
There's TM29 so why would you run HP Psychic on Starmie?
Because you don't get TM29 until after the Pokémon League.
@@SquidgyI'm glad your already thinking about it.
@@Squidgy STAB water will carry you through the johto storyline. Might as well get either HP Grass, Electric or Ice(if you don't like running icy wind on your moveset)
Have you heard of crystal legacy?
For Whitney using some Harden + Recover couldn't have made Miltank easier ?
I did try that a few times, but because of how long Harden set-up takes, those battles didn't make the final cut :)
hey squidgy, I think crystal is cool, but I think gen 3 is much more fun to watch, specifically fire red.
emerald is terrible to watch/do because of liza and tate but fire red + post game is hella fun to watch
Both Gen III regions have their flaws for challenge running - Intimidate screws over any chance of a Physical attacker doing well in Kanto, and Hoenn is VERY long and tedious!
I'll be doing my best to make fun content with both regions, though!
Can you back port ursaluna to see if it'll dethrone ursaring
I'm absolutely going to backport Ursaluna, but it's going to be in the new year - I'm going to be doing it for the blood moon in April :)
Of course you didn’t find evidence of Jasmine's Secret Potion usage, you washed ot all away!
Ohhhh! Silly me! :D
You shouldn't lick paint Squidgy 😂
Ohhhh, that's where I've been going wrong all my life!
It's probably lead based so it's fine
Can't wait
Hey Squidy was wondering if there's any chance of getting a Tentacruel run anytime soon?
I've had a little look at my schedule - I've got another Water type coming out early next month, but I'll add Tentacruel to my next batch of recordings :)
@@Squidgy Excellent! Tentacruel is my second favorite non legendary Pokémon tied with Mismagius
wow that was some atrocious Special attack IV
Our DVs for Staryu were 14 Attack, 12 Defense, 15 Special, and 15 Speed, so this Staryu had a perfect Special Attack DV.
LETS GEEEEEAUX!!!
Doesn’t 3-drill have male beedrills? So they wouldn’t produce honey. Unless he keeps the females at home. Or maybe I’m just reading way too much into this.
The three he takes out are there to scout for good flower spots for the honey producing bees!
@@Squidgy ahh makes perfect sense
The lore thickens!
Probably not as well as in Kanto just because of Psychic
Do you take backport run requests?
Potentially, it depends on the difficulty of both backporting the Pokémon and playing the run - who are you thinking? :)
@@Squidgy I was thinking Leavanny, mostly due to it being my favorite Pokémon
It has a terrible defensive type combo but I feel like its attack and speed stats could compensate for that
But I'd understand if it'd be too difficult to backport/do a run with
I adore that line, so I will absolutely put it on my to-do list! Not sure when it'll be done, but I'll give it a try!
@@Squidgy Glad to see another fan of the Sewaddle line, and I hope you have fun with it, as well as any future backports!
Comment
Pretty mediocre, jotho is not kind with tms that Starmie thrives on.
I don’t understand if you’re supposed to use starmie why are you using staryu at the beginning