Pack Analysis: BYD Blade vs CATL Qilin vs Tesla 4680 Structural

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  • Опубликовано: 2 дек 2024
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Комментарии • 438

  • @paulcummings55
    @paulcummings55 2 года назад +31

    Excellent video that not only compares the different structual batteries, but makes the important note that ALL of them are better than anything before, and that CATL and BYD are Tesla suppliers, not competitors, at least for many years to come.

    • @AWildBard
      @AWildBard Год назад

      yes, excellent points

  • @gridcoregilry666
    @gridcoregilry666 2 года назад +59

    Simply incredible work, as always, Jordan! Really makes me understand, and I have no professional background in any of the subject matters you talked about

  • @justinmallaiz4549
    @justinmallaiz4549 2 года назад +22

    My favorite episode Jordan! It really shows and draws from all your research you've done over the last couple of years, Thanks for the great overview!

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +5

      😊 Glad to hear it Justin! I agree with you, it's a good synthesis of the full stack I've been learning about for the last couple of years. Was fun to cover lots of areas at once.

  • @keithritter800
    @keithritter800 2 года назад +14

    Jordan - great analysis. One item you should double-check. Why the 4680 cell can is thicker than the 2170 cell can. The thicker 4680 cell can MAY help with the pack's structural aspects, but it is likely the primary reason for thickening it up is to prevent the cell can from rupturing in a thermal runaway event.
    The cell cans are essentially "pressure vessels" that must contain the cell's internal pressure during a thermal runaway event and allow the cell's gasses to vent through the end-cap vent port and not rupture the can's sidewall due to excessive "hoop stress" in the can (picture how a pipe ruptures when it has been over-pressured or freezes). The "hoop stress" for any cylinder is proportional to the internal pressure, cylinder diameter, and cylinder wall thickness. So, for a constant internal pressure, a cylindrical cell that has twice the diameter will require a can with twice the wall thickness to handle the same hoop stress. Note the 4680 vs 2170 cell diameter ratio is 46/21 = 2.19. Now note the 4680 cell can vs 2170 cell can thickness ratio is an average 0.55 mm/0.25 mm = 2.20. Coincidence? Perhaps you should check with any cell engineer contacts you might have about my hypothesis.

  • @Do.Not.Believe.The.Narrative
    @Do.Not.Believe.The.Narrative 2 года назад +113

    As an all in Tesla investor, your battery comparison presentation is a great anti-anxiety catalyst😅 Thanks!

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +14

      Glad to hear it man!

    • @truhartwood3170
      @truhartwood3170 2 года назад +5

      Ultimately I think all battery packs from all manufacturers will be close enough that it won't matter too much. Right now the race is price which is largely a race for production capacity. Tesla is growing like crazy so I think you're good. Also, Tesla uses whatever kind of battery it can get from a range of manufacturers in a range of form factors and sizes, so even if the 4680 didn't work out at all, they would just instantly pivot to other different batteries.

    • @stefanmargraf7878
      @stefanmargraf7878 2 года назад

      Sorry for that...all out would be safer.

    • @greecemobile7610
      @greecemobile7610 2 года назад +3

      Tesla isn't only about cars. They make batteries, power walls, megapacks, solar panels, full self driving payed software and later robotaxi and next generation robots. Don't be afraid, this company will be number 1 until 2030 with more than 5 trillion market cap if everything go normal

    • @lluisfargaslopez9603
      @lluisfargaslopez9603 2 года назад +4

      The mess about Tesla battery is that the polietherene foam will have downsides when it comes to repairing and recycling and you know where the trend is going.
      In 5 years Tesla 4680 battery structural pack will not be allowed.
      Also, the cooling is not the best approach since those bands like they did in previous generation is not the best cost-effective solution.
      For day to day consumers the best solution would be to have top-bottom cooling. For the architecture off all cylindrical and prismatic cells the conductivity, (which will be the main factor on even cooling) is orders of magnitude bigger in the z axis.
      For prismatic cells it makes sense, but for cylindrical cells the best solution is to have a good bottom cooling.
      I dont doubt they are the safest, but over engineering will have minimal impact on overall accidents but a considerably impact in cost.
      As they say in the video Tesla will be for a high end market wihle Chinese are going for the true poeple's car. I would not be able to grade the battery's packs as he did each is focused on their points.
      Is like trying to fit a high end bmw to a guy in France who need a small van like a Berlingo. For sure the bmw outperforms the van in multiple points but it fails in it's key point.

  • @kevtheobald
    @kevtheobald 2 года назад +5

    So many mainstream media outlets need to watch this. Another great video.

  • @eamonstack4139
    @eamonstack4139 2 года назад +9

    Clear evidence based analysis. Three (5) outstanding battery packs using significantly different engineering approaches. Actual rather than theoretical units. Excellent relevant and valuable video. Thanks

  • @neutronpcxt372
    @neutronpcxt372 2 года назад +42

    Another advantage of using smaller cells are yield rates: like with computer ships, the smaller the cell, the higher the yield rates.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +10

      Great point! Hadn't though of that!

    • @jonassteinmann6247
      @jonassteinmann6247 2 года назад +1

      If the main issue affecting yield is small random defects on the anode and cathode that would make sense. Is this the case though?

    • @dongyang31
      @dongyang31 2 года назад +2

      Can you elaborate more? Why do smaller cells have a better yield rate? Even if the smaller cells' yield rate is higher, does it translate to a business advantage? Quantity wise you need 5X # of smaller cells. E.g., 95% yield of 4000 smaller cells means you have 200 scraps. 90% yield of 800 large cells means you have 80 cells. There is a breakpoint but your statement might need some clarification.

    • @Charles-Darwin
      @Charles-Darwin 2 года назад

      by 'yield', do you mean momentary power availability? If so, for sure a huge advantage. Also I might add, more wiggle room for error/dying cells in the future, and with compression resistance overall -say with a side impact of the pack(vehicle) might stunt/eliminate a smaller percent than an entire array of blades due to one end receiving minimal damage.

    • @jasondolph2785
      @jasondolph2785 2 года назад +3

      @@Charles-Darwin Yield rate is the percentage of manufactured cells that are actually usable at point of manufacture.

  • @kwatt-engineer796
    @kwatt-engineer796 Год назад +1

    Bravo! I find your videos to be both compact and comprehensive with the added bonus of being brutally coherent with zero fluff.

  • @thelimitingfactor
    @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +8

    There's a lot of comments coming up in this video about the repairability of 4680 Structural Packs:
    1) Repair was always a minimally viable proposition for automotive packs. It creates cell balancing issues because you can't just drop a fresh cell into a pack full of disimilar cells. You'd have to find a cell that's identical to others in the pack, which were matched at the factory. It can be done, but it's more of a bandaid for out of production packs.
    2) What about if it's not the cell that's the issue? That's part of the the point of entombing the busbars, wiring, and cooling lines in polyurethane foam rather than bolting everything down: There's not much to break loose. If there is a failure, it would show up pretty quickly and covered by warranty.
    3) EV OEMs don't cater to the

    • @steamtorch
      @steamtorch 2 года назад +6

      when GM decided to recall all Bolt battery packs, they first experimented with in the field module replacement. Quickly determined that was impractical, all packs were processed at a central GM facility. So agree modularity and repairability are false goals.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад

      @@steamtorch GREAT insight.

    • @realfutbol1
      @realfutbol1 2 года назад +2

      Good point re: Bolt. That said, do you know whether GM replaced modules at their central facility, vs. scrap-and-replace?
      Just because a manufacturer decided it's currently impractical or unsafe to do field repairs doesn't mean that'll continue to be the case, or that nobody will come up with a better way to do so. Third-party repair helps keep manufacturers honest and accountable, and gives owners more options.

    • @steamtorch
      @steamtorch 2 года назад +3

      @@realfutbol1 GM reused cases and electronic components from returned packs with new modules. I assume parts went into common inventory so no pack was really just a simple module replacement. I mean GM put a full 8/100 warranty on them so all parts had to pass testing and inspection.

    • @k0zzu21
      @k0zzu21 2 года назад

      You might be right but that just means the realistic lifespan of the vehicle is 10 years. Taking into consideration the increased energy and raw materials needed, the sustainability of current evs is very dubious.

  • @Dykaer
    @Dykaer 2 года назад +8

    You ROCK. Love your work, and you are always on point.
    Thanks.

  • @satoshimanabe2493
    @satoshimanabe2493 2 года назад +4

    Very interesting, thank you. One additional advantage in Tesla's technique is that multiple pack sizes are possible without changing the pack voltage. Tesla can shrink or grow the pack size by changing the number of cells in parallel, while keeping the same number in series. With BYD, it appears all cells are connected in series, so they may only be able to change the pack size by changing the number of cells in series, which changes the pack voltage...which in turn changes powertrain voltage. They could double each cell in parallel, but that grows the pack size by 100%, which is a completely different vehicle.

  • @NickoSwimmer
    @NickoSwimmer 2 года назад +17

    Excellent comparison and breakdown of the contendors for next gen packs vs legacy systems. I'm glad to see that there are multiple companies pushing the overall pack performance forward, and look forward to seeing real world results! Great video as always buddy!
    By the way we recently accepted delivery of our 2023 MYLR! So stoked to finally be part of the Tesla owners club!

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +4

      WOOHOO! Congrats man! I want to buy all the Teslas, lol. 😁

    • @Crunch_dGH
      @Crunch_dGH 2 года назад +3

      Congrats!!!

  • @thomasoneill7365
    @thomasoneill7365 2 года назад +4

    Jordan
    This details within this video Is beyond incredible. I have no superlatives to do this justice.👍👍

  • @stanleyth2
    @stanleyth2 Год назад

    Thanks!

  • @ryudozz
    @ryudozz 2 года назад +5

    Thank you, your videos are always the best!

  • @markjonz
    @markjonz 2 года назад +12

    Great vdo with lots of detail to digest. From a simple geometry perspective, the blade battery has much better packaging, doesn’t need the foam padding to fill the gaps, and the current collector is vastly simpler. You mention the cylinder form factor is cheaper to produce, and perhaps with the current machines it is, but I would imagine the blade battery will sooner or later be equivalent or maybe even cheaper since the cells are bigger. The blades could be tilted to reduce pack height for sports cars where it’s desirable for the seats to be low to the ground. The blade battery makes a lot of sense to me, and I’m invested in Tesla not BYD.

    • @justjohn7529
      @justjohn7529 2 года назад +8

      Yeh, there is something much more elegant and simple about the Blade Battery. I don't see the future of battery packs being 1000's of cells and connectors and ribbon coolers, etc. BYD looks like the future, if all the other criteria are met.

    • @calmorton4619
      @calmorton4619 Год назад +2

      GM's switched off their Ultium blade battery, leading some to think that the 4680 cylinder was underestimated by the critics who could start here and learn the important dimensions of the EV battery. Thanks for the work you do.

  • @j121212100
    @j121212100 Год назад +4

    I like CATLs design. Clearly the best design with structural cooling and large area of side cooling.

  • @reggiebald2830
    @reggiebald2830 2 года назад +8

    Wow, Gordon! Your research and breakdown of information is fantastic! I owe you so much even to my limited knowledge. Hopefully, someday soon, I will begin to repay ~

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +4

      You're all good dude! I appreciate the kind words.

    • @Mrbfgray
      @Mrbfgray 2 года назад +3

      Jordan? ;-)

  • @Legola87
    @Legola87 2 года назад +1

    Best video of the EV scene so far. Your stuff keeps getting better and better.

  • @6681096
    @6681096 2 года назад +1

    Absolutely awesome analysis. The internet at its best

  • @paulmiddleton8111
    @paulmiddleton8111 2 года назад +1

    I've been waiting for this! Thanks Jordan!

  • @govindnram8556
    @govindnram8556 Год назад

    Your analysis is very exhaustive and specific as far as I have read. Thanks

  • @grecoangelo4
    @grecoangelo4 2 года назад +4

    Thanks a lot for this interesting video.
    I would like to add that fast charging is as important as the energy density .
    For example you can reduce the pack cost by decreasing his size and quickly charge in order to keep your range to your use case. The combo LFP/Fast charging is quite interesting.
    The Qilin cool the cell big source because it is the best place (lower contact resistance between JR and casing). In addition I do think that the Qilin design is aimed for allowing better fast charge performance.
    The use of cooling to stop the TR is theoretically possible , but is has to be performed as soon as the cell reach the first onset temperature. Besides the high temperature may loosen the contact between cell and cooling plate reducing the cooling performances.
    NMC tends to generate more energy than LFP with lower trigger temperature. But LFP has a lower max temperature but will keep it for a longer time. Therefore the safety performance is highly dependant on your system safety concept or design
    For the Future it is very difficult to say if Tesla is choosing the best solution , but they have chosen the best for them.
    In fact the cylindrical cell design is something they already master in term of design and manufacturing ( changing even a slight tooling calibration can be difficult 🧐)

    • @jk35260
      @jk35260 2 года назад

      If batteries can be charge quickly, the plus is really short charging time. I think drivers will not mind going to a charging station and wait for 5 mins to charge their batteries. This is especially so for city dwellers. In that sense, do you think that would make BYD blade battery to be the best choice? Additionally, what are the challenges to install very high wattage charging station.

  • @joe2mercs
    @joe2mercs 2 года назад +4

    As always, full of content and thoughtful insights. It is interesting to see that with different chemistries and structural designs that BYD, CATL and Tesla are able to look at each other in the eye at present, but the competitive race that will be run over the next decade has only just begun. I suspect that Tesla will have the deeper pockets to secure its success in energy storage as this promises to be an even larger market than the vehicle market.

  • @ErikTheViking92
    @ErikTheViking92 2 года назад +5

    Really appreciate these videos.
    If I could add anything to this analysis I would definitely like to see comparisons in potential power density, particularly for fast charging capability.
    I understand the focus on other factors regarding the value to manufacturers. I also think that longterm adoption for EVs as a major form of transportation depends a lot on the available infrastructure and that includes fast charging. Especially after fully battery electric Trucks start becoming mainstream.
    That being said. Keep 'em coming, please!

  • @pbasswil
    @pbasswil 2 года назад +10

    I don't think Tesla is primarily concerned with whether the 4680 is the most energy dense. What they want is 1) something they're confident they'll (eventually) be able to massively scale, and 2) that can be made outside of China, to reduce their China battery dependency.

    • @sumguy7716
      @sumguy7716 Год назад +1

      They will need energy density for their future products (cybertruck, semi).

  • @deantiquisetnovis
    @deantiquisetnovis 2 года назад

    Very well done comparison!!!

  • @bowesterlund3719
    @bowesterlund3719 2 года назад +2

    This is awesome work! I enjoy ever second of it.!

  • @machoopichoo2
    @machoopichoo2 2 года назад +4

    Hi Jordan, thanks for the great info, as usual. IMHO, the LMFP Qilin is probably best for most applications: the manganese improves iron energy density, iron based cells are cheaper and last longer, don't have cobalt, are safer (generally), etc. Obviously you know this, but I just wanted to add my $0.02 in the comments.
    For the time being, it seems Li-ion rules the roost for high-density apps, like performance. I think for the semi though, LFP will be a good solution soon, if for nothing else, durability/cycles.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +3

      Fair comments!
      Yeah, LFP for the short range semi would be just fine.

  • @michaelschuttemeyer4265
    @michaelschuttemeyer4265 Год назад

    Brilliant analysis with more comparison bandwidth than anyone else has in a densely packed but still understandable video.

  • @stal5861
    @stal5861 Год назад

    Great video and great reasoning, while also explaining the limitations of the marketing materials.

  • @kiae-nirodiariesencore4270
    @kiae-nirodiariesencore4270 Год назад

    Thanks for this brilliant video on these 3 next gen pack designs which we will see getting into cars in 2023. It is amazing how quickly things are moving. My 2019 Kia e-Niro has an NMC pouch cell pack with 147 Wh/kg gravimetric density at the pack level. This energy density is now surpassed by iron based packs in the Qilin and Blade designs. The battery in my car was made by SK Innovation and as far as I know there have been no reported cases of fires with these cars which have sold really well in Europe. My understanding is that the Hyundai Ioniq 5, 6, Kia EV6 and Genesis cars all still use pouch cell designs from SK Innovation but are 800v systems. So it seems that pouch cells are not dead yet! After 74,000 km and nearly 4 years I have seen no loss in range, though of course there is 3.5 kWh of ‘headroom' on the pack in my car, something that I believe is not needed in a LiPo chemistry.

  • @diyEVguy
    @diyEVguy 2 года назад +1

    Great presentation. Nice and fast, not wasting my time.

  • @runeoveras3966
    @runeoveras3966 2 года назад

    Thank you Jordan. Love it. ❤️
    Your work make a big difference in this revolution we are seeing.

  • @Humphrey-i2y
    @Humphrey-i2y 9 месяцев назад +1

    @26:20 BYD's battery is produced in house by its subsidiary FinDream. BYD is Tesla's direct competitor.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  9 месяцев назад

      No, they're a supplier for now. That's why Tesla uses BYD batteries in their vehicles.
      Someday they'll be competitors - not yet

  • @Sonnell
    @Sonnell 2 года назад +4

    I think modularity and rigidity are not factors the market or the buyers look for. In any comparison, advantages has to be weighed properly. Cost and capacity will remain a vastly dominant factor for years to come, and are the things that matter.

  • @gregbailey45
    @gregbailey45 2 года назад

    A very thorough and well-presented analysis, thank you!

  • @roecroes
    @roecroes 2 года назад

    Welcome back, Jordan!

  • @budgetaudiophilelife-long5461
    @budgetaudiophilelife-long5461 2 года назад +1

    THANKS JORDAN,FOR A “FAIR AND BALANCED “REVIEW 😉💚💚💚

  • @mikecawthorn7806
    @mikecawthorn7806 Год назад

    Got some well reasoned points Bud, tks for the run down.

  • @terrysullivan1992
    @terrysullivan1992 2 года назад +2

    Thanks for this in depth analysis. I'm sure a second watch will be necessary. As I understand: the Tesla motors and control systems give better performance / KWh. If true; that could make up for the battery performances along with so many other factors; like drag, etc. Two days until the Semi event. Yahoo !

  • @xymaryai8283
    @xymaryai8283 2 года назад +11

    i always thought that larger cells for higher capacity makes far more sense than putting multiple cells in parallel. BYD Blade is amazing.
    however, though i know these are all long life structural packs, if BYD could easily make their cells replaceable, even if it requires desoldering or re-spot welding, it would give far more confidence that these packs are worth using the resources for when the market does become resource limited. a serviceable vehicle is an immortal vehicle.

  • @RWBHere
    @RWBHere 2 года назад

    Thanks Jordan. Your research and production work are appreciated. 🙂👍

  • @filippxx
    @filippxx 8 месяцев назад

    Detailed analysis like this is what could turn a lot of ICE car owners to EVs, most of them will talk about safety concerns and battery life. Give me an LFP BYD pack in my Tesla and I will never have to worry about these things: too chemistry in top tier software engineering.

  • @xuyan2650
    @xuyan2650 2 года назад

    Great video. two suggestions
    - BYD also mainly use their battery cell and battery pack for BYD internal vehicle production. The cost should be low
    - It would be great to consider the battery packs from VW, KIA, etc

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +1

      1) Correct, just take the Tesla cost chart and invert it.
      2) VW and KIA - If in house, then similar to GM/FORD. If purchasing, then on par with BYD, CATL, TSLA...but higher cost.
      In other words, all this can be inferred based on the information I provided.

  • @alexmanojlovic768
    @alexmanojlovic768 Год назад

    Great assessment, even though you're limited by available accurate data. Thanks!

  • @peteroffpist1621
    @peteroffpist1621 Год назад

    Great analysis, right approach!

  • @AlainLesage
    @AlainLesage 6 месяцев назад

    Battery Doug Score. I'm all for it !

  • @JamesNeilMeece
    @JamesNeilMeece 2 года назад

    Hi Jordan. I had a friend in Florida who pointed out that some EV fires happened there after the Hurricane, due to salt water getting into the battery pack. Of course that is bad, but I assured her this should be very rare, for the same reasons that gasoline leaks are rare. But if it happens, yes that is bad.

  • @MrFoxRobert
    @MrFoxRobert 2 года назад +2

    Thank you!

  • @rogerstarkey5390
    @rogerstarkey5390 2 года назад

    Hey Jordan
    Took me a while, but I'm here!
    .
    WOW!
    ANOTHER great one!
    ALMOST as complicated as the World Cup Group permutations.... But not quite!!!
    😁👍

  • @TomasAbrahams
    @TomasAbrahams Год назад +1

    Great presentation. I liked a lot.
    But have you think the geometry of BYD Blade has very lower thermal requirement so bottom cooling circuit is prity enough to keep battery temperature in good operation. In this meaning, the BYD Blade has the best thermal efficiency of these pool?

  • @Mrbfgray
    @Mrbfgray 2 года назад +2

    IDK but suspect that materials will ramp faster than widely predicted given the high prices, permit streamlining and incentives.
    Price and gov getting out of the way alone should largely remedy this in yrs not decades.
    Another great production, I'm going to have to start contributing soon.

  • @larryteslaspacexboringlawr739
    @larryteslaspacexboringlawr739 2 года назад +1

    thank you for battery comparison video

  • @adon8672
    @adon8672 2 года назад +2

    Thanks for the video. Would have been nice to know how these three compare with what we already know or expect from solid state batteries especially on energy densities, safety and cost.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +8

      There are no mass produced solid state batteries. There's like 1 GWh of capacity out there from all producers.

  • @Clark-Mills
    @Clark-Mills 2 года назад +1

    The blade design is absolutely the winner for LFP.
    The cylindrical cell is absolutely the winner for NCA, and to a lesser degree NMC, as cylinders under pressure do not expand - the end cap handles any pressure event. We've all seen puffed up prismatic cells and it seems that all prismatic cells swell - blades are fundamentally a stretched prismatic cell.

  • @tommckinney1489
    @tommckinney1489 2 года назад

    thanks for the analysis of why you left out GM and Ford.

  • @tesla_tap
    @tesla_tap 2 года назад +1

    Excellent analysis - Thanks! On pack density, I thought prismatic cells require extra space to allow for expansion of the cells. It would seem the metal containers may have some empty space to allow for this, reducing the density. This might also reduce the efficiency of thermal systems as air is a poor thermal conductor. Sadly, it's hard hard to find these details from marketing presentations if true.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +1

      Amen! Lots of variables there.
      The packing density of the jelly roll within the cell is better in cylindrical cells and the cell can acts to contain the jelly roll expansion.

  • @mauroscimone8584
    @mauroscimone8584 2 года назад

    Omg this is what i want to watch right now!! What a coincidence...

  • @denero66
    @denero66 2 года назад +3

    As always, very insightful. Much appreciated. Do you have any idea where Tesla stands on its third generation of battery machinery and any further progress on other revenant technology (e.g. dry technology, other chemistry variations, ..).

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +7

      Those updates come at the earnings calls, and I do updates after every earnings call.

    • @denero66
      @denero66 2 года назад +1

      @@thelimitingfactor Understood. Thanks for the reply.

  • @mahyadnaadlaw3112
    @mahyadnaadlaw3112 Год назад

    For the moment, analysis is justified.
    In less than half a decade batteries will be significantly efficient. Price will be the major consideration for consumers

  • @neeld.5522
    @neeld.5522 Год назад

    Will Prowse sent me lol. I don't understand why RUclips has yet to recommend your channel to me given the number of related channels I'm subbed to.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  Год назад +1

      Lol, I just watched his video and saw that!
      It tripped me out when I heard my theme song on his video 🤣

  • @rb8049
    @rb8049 2 года назад +2

    As a Tesla investor, I don’t need details like this to feel good about my investment. I trust Tesla’s engineers are always making the best choices. They are driving for cost, reliability, performance all the time. I do however enjoy these details as an engineer.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +1

      Glad to hear it!

    • @user-lc9dg5xz2d
      @user-lc9dg5xz2d Год назад

      I generally agree with your points, but we can also trust the smart engineers at other companies making the great choices as well, especially at places in Japan where they already have proven track records of good efficiencies and quality management. If you agree with that, how will that impact your bias towards investing in Tesla over in others? BTW, I'm looking for insights, not trying to prove who's right or wrong.

  • @Weezedog
    @Weezedog 2 года назад +3

    When it comes to the fire safety issue, I think the problem is many EVs have caught fire while parked, charging ,or while just driving while most ICE fires are a result of a car accident. We all know how many car serious accidents we have been in and how very rare that is, but everyone parks/charges/drives their EV daily so it FEELS more dangerous because it’s something we do frequently and that makes the chances of fire feel greater than it really is.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +1

      Bingo. I think I noted this briefly in the video, but maybe I didn't call it out clearly enough

    • @Weezedog
      @Weezedog 2 года назад

      @@thelimitingfactor Plus I think we all feel like we have some control in limiting our chances of a car accident by being a good defensive driver, whereas a electrical/battery fault is completely out of our control and feels scary.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад

      @@Weezedog Yes! The battery fires seem more chaotic. Which frightens people.

    • @AllanSustainabilityFan
      @AllanSustainabilityFan 2 года назад +3

      I don't think this is accurate: There are many more potential points of failure in ICE cars, and even more so in hybrid ICE platforms.
      So actually allot of ICE fires also come from defects or wear and tear.
      One of many infamous and recent demonstrations of this inherent challenge is BMW's woes with their cars randomly catching fire, to the point where their offices were raided by police in south Korea to investigate coverup.
      One of many that media covers on page 69 for benefit of their ad sponsores, while EV fires makes headlines, despite statistical reality.

    • @rhamph
      @rhamph 2 года назад +1

      If the rate of fires really is as different as claimed then even a relatively rare ICE fire while parked could be more common than an EV fire. I'm not sure parked ICE fires are "relatively rare" either, but I haven't found a decent source.

  • @kayzrx8
    @kayzrx8 2 месяца назад

    The argument of increased surface area for cooling also need to take into account the Rejected heat from the cells and the application. If the cells are arranged in a way and the application is causing the cells to not need that much that rejection, Bottom plate cooling is fine.

  • @W020-j9o
    @W020-j9o 2 года назад +3

    Small disagreement: Qilin and Blade internal connections that provide the necessary output voltage/current values are still connections. So it seems that they shouldn't get extra points for fewer connections. However, that is nitpicky. What is not nitpicky is that this report is amazing in its comprehensiveness, especially given the paucity of engineering details available. Jordan is the go-to guy for the global view on batteries! (and a whole lot more)

  • @martylee5299
    @martylee5299 Год назад

    Excellent. Thank you.

  • @johnkley3163
    @johnkley3163 Год назад

    Great Video, lots of help in understanding of the new generation of battery design and chemistry. I will review your site in hopes of finding answers in some of the changes being worked on the anodes chemistry to depart from Cobalt use to graphite either synthetic or mined or 100% silicon or lithium of graphite enhanced silicon. Thanks

  • @hedleypepper1838
    @hedleypepper1838 2 года назад +1

    Hi Jordan. I noticed you stated cylindrical nickel based pack only option for LONG RANGE Cyber Truck and Semi. So what's your opinion on iron chemistries in these vehicles? To my mind if they simply swap out nickel for iron with similar volume packs the low range 300 mile options will be easily possible with iron chemistry !!!!

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +1

      Possible. Likely? Depends on cell supply from different sources.

  • @johndinsdale1707
    @johndinsdale1707 2 года назад +1

    Jordan, both BYD and CATL have deployed these technologies in existing vehicles. CATL has deployed CTP in SAIC vehicles such as the 77KWH MG Mulan. Also the Lotus Electra uses LFP CATL CTP and Zeekr 009 uses CATL Qilin CTP?

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад

      I'm not sure how this matters if there is no publicly available information. You get me the data and I'll do the comparison. These packs are all the same generation, whether you call them generation cheese or generation next.

    • @johndinsdale1707
      @johndinsdale1707 2 года назад

      @@thelimitingfactor There is lots of information on these car in China and the EU. I know you are based in the US and that market appears to have completely shut off any Chinese or Chinese bought brand with sanctions.

    • @general403ok
      @general403ok Год назад

      @@johndinsdale1707 can you please provide more information about catl, and some websites to read more about those technologies weather BYD, or CATL would be great, Thanks in advance,

  • @aljones8519
    @aljones8519 Год назад

    A factor not mentioned is that only tesla 4680 packs have enough cells (1000) to go to 900 volts+ which can significantly shrink & lighten the drive motor & much of the connecting heavy wiring, like Lucid has done. This may also speed up super charging so I've read, but I'm not sure how?

  • @crecclestonable
    @crecclestonable Год назад

    Great work very informative.

  • @MJ-lx8pc
    @MJ-lx8pc Год назад

    Great analysis

  • @vanrozay8871
    @vanrozay8871 Год назад

    Jordan: There are some of us who want to know how batteries rate, but who flunk chemistry. For us, brief summations of your results would be appreciated. Maybe an occasional "wrap-up" of your findings of recent months; the strengths and weaknesses of a certain battery, but without the how. Thanks.

  • @tatradak
    @tatradak 2 года назад

    Hi Jordon..Apsolutely sure the new semi is using Supercapcitors... Can't prove it but power requirements are so huge the lithium ion would be getting such a hammering.. Look forward to your vlog on it..

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +1

      Supercap not required. The energy reserve of the pack is so massive that it has power on demand.
      That is, the motors are the limiting factor, not power.

  • @rammpage4468
    @rammpage4468 2 года назад

    15:05 wrong, those BYD vehicles that caught on fire were plug-in hybrids. Roughly 50% of BYD's vehicles sold are plug-in hybrids. None of their blade battery EV has caught on fire, yet.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад

      Nope, they were Han EVs, not BYD Hans

    • @airrodgers7277
      @airrodgers7277 Год назад

      @@thelimitingfactor lol the byd han comes in both ev and hybrid

  • @tommckee5671
    @tommckee5671 2 года назад +1

    Tesla is not producing any iron chemistry batteries. They are purchasing iron based from CATL. It does make you wonder if Tesla is serious about accelerating the transition to clean energy.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад

      I think they're just stumbling with the Nickel and they'll get to LFP. They need nickel at the moment for C/T and Semi

  • @GreylanderTV
    @GreylanderTV 2 года назад +6

    If we're thinking long-term then energy density(i.e. range) is of little importance: robotaxi can go off to charge on their own. Humans will never have to wait for a car to charge.

  • @tomastylecek7209
    @tomastylecek7209 Год назад

    what an awesome video 🤗

  • @johannesdolch
    @johannesdolch 2 года назад

    One thing that wasn't mentioned is that the round shape and hexagonal arrangement of the 4680 makes it much less likely that it will get punctured or bend.

  • @michaelcoghlan9124
    @michaelcoghlan9124 2 года назад

    Yes thank you very interesting.

  • @margu4u
    @margu4u 2 года назад

    Great information / work !

  • @zomgneedaname
    @zomgneedaname Год назад

    What about the charge cycle impact of battery chemistry between iron vs nickel? That's surely going to factor into consumer decision making in 5 years time when nickel based cells need to be replaced...

  • @johndinsdale1707
    @johndinsdale1707 2 года назад +1

    Jordan ,you always compare to a future 4680 gen3 theoretical implementation. Tesla has many challenges with supply of materials and there are huge process validation confirmation. Scale is all a pipe dream at the moment , so I would compare on what is currently testable?

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад

      Because pack energy density is somewhat independent of cell energy density. Tesla won't have an issue with the pack. It will be the cell that they struggle to increase energy density.
      They are separate and distinct things.

  • @RickinHKG
    @RickinHKG Год назад

    Any opinions or interest in the NIO Battery swap option?

  • @simonstpauli
    @simonstpauli Год назад

    Thanks for the great overview.
    One thougth: service and recycling. Tesla seems to be the worst concept when it comes to this. At least that's what I think when I see the foaming. On the other hand, when a blade cell goes bad, it should be easily replaceable.
    Regulatory action like "right to repair" and "fit for recycling" could influence the scores of future packs. Circular economy is a big goal, that could influence lawmakers. And it makes sense as well, because we could make more use out of limited resources.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  Год назад +1

      Making the pack serviceable is a waste of time.
      I'll eventually do a video on this.
      As far as recycling goes, they designed it to be recyclable.
      ... Grind to physically separate and then chemically separate

  • @partyboeller
    @partyboeller 2 года назад

    Amazing video!

  • @beauarts
    @beauarts 2 года назад +1

    I thought Tesla/Elon said they weren’t making 4680 LFP batteries. Is there a link to some statement that they are?

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +1

      No, they didn't. And no, there wasn't. That is, it's hypothetical.

  • @Mrbfgray
    @Mrbfgray 2 года назад +1

    That 4680 pack looks over the top structurally ridged and strong, hard to fathom it can't be significantly mass trimmed.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад +1

      Amen, brick shithouse, lol

    • @Mrbfgray
      @Mrbfgray 2 года назад

      @@thelimitingfactor Even low density insulating foams can be quite strong (at least in compression, not certain about sheer or tensile) and plenty rigid.
      The pink stuff they use must be much heavier, but we all know they intend to improve these packs.

  • @esa4aus
    @esa4aus 2 года назад

    Excellent information overview….

  • @DanielASchaeffer
    @DanielASchaeffer 2 года назад

    You didn't give a reason why Tesla's monolithic pack should beat the others for structural rigidity? @9:30

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад

      I did, I just didn't write a paragraph on it. There's an image of the modelling that was done and also I said that it would have greater rigidity than something with a finite number of structural members. That is, there's no joints. Joints are weak points.
      If I did a deep dive on each point, the video would have been 50% longer at least. This was a cursory overview of points that I've done entire videos on in the past.
      I've done two videos on the structural battery pack already.

  • @kylekleman
    @kylekleman 2 года назад

    Right now vehicle to grid isn’t a huge deal but in the near future I see that changing. Being able to use your battery for energy storage when energy costs are low and sell it back to the grid at a higher price allows you to make money on an asset that sits in a garage most of its life. That is additional value automakers can charge for and likely make a cut of each KWH loaned to the grid. (Tesla makes a cut today.) The cons are that your battery will degrade faster. Very shortly I see battery life and number of charge cycles being a top three issue.

    • @howardsimpson489
      @howardsimpson489 Год назад

      Why bother with V to G with the piss poor returns on energy returned to greedy utilities. Just V to home for the inevitable blackouts.

    • @kylekleman
      @kylekleman Год назад

      @@howardsimpson489 it really depends on the deal with your utility. In the UK, some utilities are returning around .18 which is barely over the cost of increased battery degradation. While other pilots like the one with Tesla and PG&E pay $2 a kWh during times of grid stress! (So not every day) $2 a kWh is an incredible rate. I’d loan my battery every time for that.

  • @michaelginever732
    @michaelginever732 Год назад +1

    Number of charge discharge cycles is surely a very important attribute that you haven't considered. By this criterium LFP are better than CoNiMn as I understand.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  Год назад

      I did consider it but as long as they hit the minimum number of cycles required they're good.

    • @gulliverdalton8680
      @gulliverdalton8680 Год назад

      For a second car that’s irregularly driven and used as a house battery for people on time of use plans or solar owners I see charge cycles as very important. Also resale value/secondhand market is much more focused on reliability and that includes maximum charge cycles not just getting it past the warranty period. Resale value is obviously very important for any purchase cost calculation.

  • @davincisghost9228
    @davincisghost9228 2 года назад

    Thanks man.

  • @Limpatome
    @Limpatome 2 года назад +1

    Another safety issue I have not seen commented in the video is that battery fires are metal fires. This means that water cannot put them down, it makes them worse! When water contacts metallic elements (like Lithium) it splits into hydrogen gas and OH anions. The hydrogen gas then proceeds to ignite with the oxygen of the atmosphere. That's why it is so difficult to put out EV fires.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад

      Bingo! Also, great explanation. I didn't know the details.

    • @howardsimpson489
      @howardsimpson489 Год назад

      @@thelimitingfactor Not to mention the raging hydrolysis as at 300+ volts, pure water is a good conductor, great quantities of electrolysed hydrogen. A quick look at the hazmat for hydrogen makes me nervous of hydrogen power, green or otherwise. My feeling about EVs is the limited charging ability of overloaded grids, I run an elderly Nissan leaf charged by our solar.

  • @jayjohnson3732
    @jayjohnson3732 2 года назад

    Maybe I missed this in the video (was listening more than watching), but I think the Tesla pack will have a significant advantage in rigidity. Airframes use the honeycomb structure for a reason. Plus, I can’t see how the other two will match the Tesla pack in longitudinal stiffness, and that should give Tesla an advantage when building the entire vehicle. My “Back of the napkin” two cents.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  2 года назад

      I showed an image that calculated the rigidity.

    • @machoopichoo2
      @machoopichoo2 2 года назад

      Yes, I think Jordan ranked Tesla highest for rigidity. Makes sense given the pack is monolithic. At least with my limited knowledge.

  • @xxwookey
    @xxwookey 2 года назад

    Has anyone taken the ID MEB battery modules apart yet to see which cells it is using and how it is put together? I've seen Munro and some others look inside the pack, but I've not seen any detail on the actual cells used. Who made them, which chemistry?

  • @konradandreenordvik9829
    @konradandreenordvik9829 7 месяцев назад

    Tesla's 4680 structural battery pack is interesting. The problem is reparability, recyclability, thermal management and the life cycle impact to the car owner. Concerning all three, using batteries as an integral structural part of the car does leave me with some safety concerns during high impact situations while still not fully addressing ways to help firefighters to contain and mitigate a lithium battery fires, this I believe could be addressed through some simple modifications that would allow firefighters to be able to pump water into the battery pack and thus helping to contain and cool the battery pack.

    • @thelimitingfactor
      @thelimitingfactor  7 месяцев назад

      I've covered those points in past videos. Not even repairability is valid because it's a trade off decision that creates other benefits. It would only cater to to about 1 in 10,000 people and disadvantage everyone else.

  • @jameshoffman552
    @jameshoffman552 2 года назад

    7:42 What this graph means to me is that Hyundai does a marketing-driven charge curve that fries the battery pack.