Can China keep zero-covid? Is China losing the war against omicron?
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 2 май 2022
- Can China keep zero-covid? Is China losing the war against omicron?#zerocovid #shanghailockdowns #chinasnewnormal
Website: www.pascalcoppens.com/
ABOUT PASCAL COPPENS:
Website: www.pascalcoppens.com
Linkedin: / pacovision
RUclips channel: / pascalcoppens
BOOK - CHINA's NEW NORMAL
www.pascalcoppens.com/shop 
Наука
![XO (Only If You Say Yes) - ENHYPEN エンハイプン 엔하이픈 [Music Bank] | KBS WORLD TV 240712](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/wBT1bKKwPTo/mqdefault.jpg)
What my father taught when I was young is simply this: " Son, the difference between life and money is simple - when you lose money you can always find it back, but when you lose your life, it's gone forever. Hence life is the most important thing in our existence." The Chinese stay healthy while the West can always keep their money and freedom.
correct, old people love to excerise in china and keep fit active, old people in uk still go to macdonalds and pubs
The Westerners WON'T keep their Money As they will be DEAD and their FREEDOM will they enjoy will be inthe BOX !!😱
In the west we have our money and freedom. Our vaccines work. The west has opened up
@@Andy-P How many of you have lost their lives?
Indeed. Loss of income is tragic yes, but money loss can be earned back later. But once people lose their lives to the virus, then no amount of money can buy back those lives that have been lost.
Given that the zero covid approach worked in other cities, I think Shanghai local government dropped the ball by trying to pursue a different approach. I'm locked down in Shanghai too but lives matter and I think the current policy should be pursued regardless of what others think.
yes
I’m in Hong Kong and we never went into a lockdown instead we decided to “live with a the virus” but not completely opened up, we still have some restrictions into place such as incoming travellers must go under a compulsory 7 day quarantine and vaccine pass is required for entering most venues. Tbh I’m glad we didn’t went into lockdown cuz hk having the highest population density in the world, it would have been almost impossible. Also cuz our hk government is very lenient and most of the time they have trust that people will just comply with the rules, and they trust people a lot, like for example there was one time I had to go through an emergency surgery during pandemic time and in the public hospital they asked me if I had COVID or not and I said no, they didn’t do a test cuz it was a life or death situation and they carried on performing the surgery that saved me life. So I have to say if this happened to me under a stricter COVID regulations hospitals, they wouldn’t have been able to even touch me . I respect Shanghai people endurance, for enduring this harsh time and I truly hope they can go back to covid zero asap, however compared to hk the situation has been managed different and in fact many people got it died during our March outbreak, it was truly horrible to see people left and right getting it. However most of them survived it, including kids and elderly , the ones who didn’t make it was the ones with underlying health issues which was really sad and made hk people really angry. But nothing we could do cuz we just following what the government thought was right. I hope to hear good news coming from Shanghai soon, my heart goes to you all. Truly truly, stay safe and stay strong!
Shenzhen had entered lockdown (Omicron variant too) and they succeeded and have successfully opened up.
@@Shenzhou. Marvellous. A True Socialist State with Chinese Characteristics
look at it the other way, Shanghai also has more foreigners than other cities in China.
I live in China. I've been through a lockdown in my city. I also have lots of friends living in Shanghai. I've heard many many "experts" inside and outside China making comments about the lockdown. Pascal's observation is by far the closest to what's actually happening here. If he has a Twitter account. I will follow him.
I think he lives in Shanghai
So refreshing to hear about someone critizising China in such neutral and unbiased way... Keep up good work!
he makes good points
But what's the alternative? Imagine how much worst it will be had Shanghai not implemented lockdown.
@@Shenzhou. I think he knows, the difference between his comment and other usual talking points is I do feel he's more sincerely wishing China to defeat covid and recover soon, at least that how I feel from watching it.
@@jaymarx An old Chinese proverb goes: _"It's better to light a candle, rather than curse the darkness."_ (与其诅咒黑暗，不如燃起蜡烛。)
@@Shenzhou. It can't be "an old Chinese proverb". It is modern colloquial language.
Very nuanced view about China. Only a truly knowledgeable China expert like Pascal can present Chinese covid policy from this perspective. Having said that, as an expat that have taken roots in China for over 20 years, I respectfully disagree on several points:
1) The importance of foreigner's participation and view about China: As an expat we tend to overestimate the value of expat to China. In the past when China is lacking knowledge and skill to modernize, expat participation is important, however, today it is no longer the case. There are of course several unique positions that can only be filled by expats but these are no longer crucial for the Chinese economy as the vast majority of labor can be taken by the locals. It is increasingly difficult for expat to find jobs in China precisely because of this competition as well as the local perception that expat will bolt out of the country as soon as they face difficulties which is proven right from the Shanghai lockdown. Any country that rely on foreigner for a functional economy is making a huge strategic mistake and is vulnerable to outside control. Another indication of the ever decreasing importance for expats is the fact that the Chinese gov make zero incentive to lure these expat that is trying to leave China at this moment. Sure, the talent program still exist, but China also wants expat with greater importance and stability than these fickle expat that dash out at any sign of trouble. Simply put China thinks that by not participating or investing in China, it is the foreigner's lost not China's lost.
2) Decoupling with the west is inevitable: This is going against the narrative and goal of many good China expert who wants to build a bridge between China and the west. Looking at how the west tries to cancel the Russian is a sober reminder of what is in store for China and in perhaps India if it ever becomes a threat to western hegemony. For China, the flash point is already cooked and ready across the Taiwan straight waiting for the US to light the fire to accomplish total cancelation of Chinese civilization in the west. My advise to all businesses is to make a move to decouple as fast as possible because that is what I am doing for my business and asset as well. The decoupling process is going to accelerate more in the next five years. Can it change course? I believe the chance is very small. One side has to capitulate in order to recouple. China shows no sign of capitulating and the west is declining but not fast enough to the point of capitulation within most people's lifetime. To change the system in the west, the ruling elites in the west must be overthrown (no I am not talking about career politicians, they are puppets of the true ruler). To overthrow them, it will require a revolution which will have very high threshold to trigger in a relatively wealthy west. The people must be thrown into extreme poverty for a chance of systemwide revolution. I just don't see this in my life time. Therefore the natural answer is the further formation of the two blocks, the collective west (including Japan and South Korea) and the Eurasion block with separate economy, politic and culture.
@Turtlesoup81 Great comment!
I just have one comment on your point #2. Before Ukraine, I too would have said that the West would not declining fast enough.
Having seen how willing the EU leadership is to committing economic suicide, however, I'm not so sure.
Although it's still very low probability, I wouldn't be surprised if a civil war or two would occur in the West.
America was able to hold onto foreign technical experts for many years (started before WWII), if it can continue holding onto the Chinese academica?
Have a look how many Chinese names are with papers published in America.
China is still on track to become the richest country, Ukraine war can be solved by Europe, America is too much in debt especially looking at reducing oil $ globally.
Taiwan is another ten years away my guess, China will wait until America’s power is reduced relatively
@@titussteenhuisen8864 Talent flow to wherever the opportunities are. However, talent that sees China as a home is extremely valuable and the best source for such talent is the local people not foreigner. Unlike america, China has 1.4 billion people to cultivate. Many of these people will not bolt out of the country as soon as difficulty arise. Relying on the majority of talent from foreign land is a major mistake aas these talent do not have loyalty to the adopted country. Many of thoose foreign talent in the US also defect to other countries. However, america has an ace up its sleeve and that is its soft power and propaganda. Chinese will keep flowing to the US despite the US poor infrastructure, racism, poor safety record, higher living expenses and so on....why? Because of soft power and propaganda. For many people, they still have the american dream even tough it is long dead in america. China is building its soft power and improving its own propaganda (but still nowhere near america). Until then, China is safer and better off developing its own talent base with minimal foreign reliance as the world is splitting into two blocks.
This is a realistic appraisal of the situation, sadly. The momentum will be towards a Cold War between the two blocs, and civil strifes in those nations torn between the two. The climate crisis will take a back seat, arms race in AI and space will accelerate - humankind is under threat. We still need independent voices like Pascal's now more than ever. They need our support.
@@turtlesoup8134 America provided money and research facilities better than any other country since about WWI. That’s why America has a technological edge, attracting top brains from all over the world.
Nothing to do with native or imported brains or political agenda. People want to excel, develop themselves and the world, they go to where the best opportunity is.
Thanks for this great and balanced discussion. My wife and I argue over the policy quite a bit - we are both upset that we have been unable to return to China to visit her mother. However, I am in favor of the policy for two main reasons. The first is, as many say, the reason of putting people's lives first and avoiding the disaster of allowing Omicron to spread unchecked. The second is that the China is leading the way in helping us understand how to cope with future pandemics as well. There will be more infectious diseases, if not new Covid variants, then others. The zero-Covid policy has lead to considerable breakthroughs in mass testing technology, mass production technology for PPE as well as understanding of logistics of transmission control through quarantines and lockdowns. Without the knowledge gained through the Chinese efforts at zero-Covid, I fear that the whole world would be going into the next pandemic blindly.
Great points.
That is a very interesting remark, because although you are 100% right, I doubt the world will learn much from China on handling the next pandemic. We will do the exact same thing we did with this pandemic, except react faster. My view is that you don't learn from those you don't trust - unfortunately.
China still thinks it has the best policy and braggs to the rest of the world it has. Well it may of been to begin with, but not now. The rest of the world has opened up due to effective vaccines and some lockdowns. Because of China policy many companies will start to partly move out of China. China is just to unreliable. China was broadcasting learn from us. All the world is learning now is the autocratic system of China isn't coping well with Covid.
Like Pascal, you ignore or don't consider the option that China should simply swallow its pride and make deals with Pfizer and Moderna to revaccinate China's population. If China can't produce an effective vaccine against Omicron, then the highest priority should be to get access to one if it exists, and there are two proven, working vaccines.
Bottom line is that if China got properly vaccinated, each individual under lockdown would be back at work with minimal restrictions in about 2 weeks to a month with relatively protection for the next 6 mths, even if exposed to the virus in a community setting.
@@tonysu8860 I'm sorry, but the belief that that the approved Pfizer and Moderna vaccines would make a significant difference is magical thinking. These vaccines have demonstrably failed to prevent Omicron waves in every country that uses them. They have provided very good protection against severe outcomes of hospitalization and death, as have the Chinese vaccines. Unfortunately, as Pascal notes, the vaccination rate of the elderly and otherwise vulnerable populations is not yet high enough in China. To actually prevent the spread of Covid, an Omicron-specific vaccine is needed. Chinese companies are developing these and they are in clinical trials now. If these vaccines can be deployed as boosters this summer, and assuming that no new variant arises, then China should be in a much better position by the fall.
My view is quite simple: From the very bottom of my heart, I wish China all the best to overcome the hard times of lockdowns. All in all, China’s COVID-19 policy is humane and successful. My yardstick is: Does the country do everything to protect the most vulnerable? That tells the story about a country’s cultural maturity. On my list, China is way above almost all other countries. I am 80 years old, living in Germany. If I were many, many years younger, I would learn Mandarin. Since 2017, I have had the honor to teach at a U.S. University in Singapore, each year (until CoOVID-19 broke out) a couple of months. I say this because it enabled me to look at China from a country in which I was not bombarded with anti-China propaganda each and every day. If not for this type of unjustified propaganda, it would be much easier for China to get things successfully organized. Sometimes, I suspect that the Western countries wish that China’s COVID-19 policy fails. It is so damned unfair!
Singapore media like _Channel News Asia_ can be quite negative in their portrayal of China. I've been to Singapore before and spoke Mandarin, and the local Singaporean Chinese could pick up my mainland accent and some (not all) started treating me coldly. But when I open my mouth and speak English, many Singaporeans started warming up to me.
China's reaction to western propaganda is often very assertive, which is not how we know China's diplomatic calm from before the Trump era. It is clear Chinese leaders have had enough of bad publicity from the West, but their direct response often gets seen as proof of their dangerous regime instead of a fightback from earlier aggression. It's a global war of propaganda.
@@Shenzhou. Well, I regret this. Maybe I do not fully understand the hidden or at least subliminal allusive propagandistic approaches in Singapore. My impression results from the comparison to what I experience in Western countries.
The biased so-called main stream media is really worrisome. Thank you for your observation.
@@PascalCoppens Propaganda from the Western side is hostile to China whereas Chinese "propaganda" is to dispel Western propaganda not demonize the West.
I live in Shengzhen and for the past 11 days the city has had zero cases; therefore, it can be controlled, up to a point. The situation in Shanghai is not just a Shanghai problem. It's a China problem. If China doesn't contain and lockdown Shanghai, the virus would quickly spread throughout China. Of course, Shanghai could have done a better job, but nevertheless, I do support the lockdown and cases appear to be lower each day recently. I hope the lockdown will end soon as I have many friends in Shanghai and hate to see them suffer.
With the rescources and situation China has and is now in. The CCP face very difficult choices. Keeping Zero covid does seem the best out of a set of poor options.
@@Andy-P Your goal here is to spread your wish that China would fail on all of its policy including the Zero COVID policy. LOCK DOWN is always the best SCIENTIFIC solution in containing a fast spreading virus. The rest of the world can't doesn't mean China can't. China has already proven that its zero COVID policy is successful in slowing down the spread of COVID and minimize deaths, unlike the west's "living with COVID policy" that already caused the death of 6 millions lives. The zero COVID policy's main goal is to slow down the spread of COVID until there are better vaccines and treatments, not to have absolute zero COVID. The low death rates in western countries and US means most of the vulnerable people are already dead. The dead rate of Omicron in HK proves that Omicron is as deadly as the original COVID virus.
@@Andy-P having an effective vaccines can help too. CCP is too proud to import effective vaccines
Shanghai and Beijing are the two cities in China having the best medical facilities in China. And Medical facilities in China is very different than the west or neighboring Taiwan, Japan or Korea; there are very few private medical clinics but mostly regional Hospitals. So if they cannot control Covid in Shanghai, when it spread to 2nd 3rd 4th 5th tiers cities, it will be catastrophic; and they will have no way to cope with the Covid patients. The human tolls will be in the millions. Beijing government understands this very well so the full lock down of Shanghai is out of necessity because they have no choice.
Unfortunately the Shanghai government was not prepared thus causing a lot of problems. But they will sort it out and control this eventually. Beijing government fully aware of the economic impact of Shanghai lockdown but they also understand that if death tolls rises they will loose the support of the people. The west always criticize China's human rights; but in reality China value life more than anything else and it is a value the West cannot comprehend.
Agree. The CCP have got themselves into a difficult position. Zero Covid did work allong with Chinese vaccine but against this variant...
I disagree.
Your support for lockdowns only means perpetual rolling lockdowns as needed for as long as the virus (Omicron variant) will exist. The toll on the population will be very heavy over time, far more than just this first Shanghai lockdown. Wuhan has been in lockdown more than once.
All scientists and medical experts (epidemiologists) agree that the only proper solution short of just letting the virus take its natural toll is to vaccinate. There is no better solution that has relatively permanent results (at least for 6 mths) and ensures the individual can return to a life of near normalcy (2-4 weeks for the mRNA vaccines).
China's lockdown policy would have been the best when no effective vaccines existed.
Today, it's just dumb.
@@Andy-P Since the Omicron is spreading faster than the other COVID variants, quick lock down is a MUST, not even a choice. The zero COVID policy may not contain Omicron 100% but it is MUCH better than doing nothing like the west and the US.
@@hyc1266 Zero Covid could be the best option for China. West and the US don't need to do much because the vaccines work and hospitals are not overwhelmed
Those foreigners come back home might find themselves in the worse situations in their countries than in Shanghai or China. You life or your family's lives will be more precious in China than in your own so-called free countries... I guess..
Thanks for addressing this subject, your insights are very valuable as always.
Writing from France, here my several cents:
- I wish all the best to the Chinese, in Shanghai or elsewhere, and I found admirable how they fought Covid and kept it at bay for so long. However, Omicron is spreading quick and stealthly, you can have many asymptomatic cases or people with really mild symtoms who carry the virus around, and outbreaks are detected with a delay, much longer than with the original virus or the previous variants. In some cities, they managed to fight it back to zero, but in Shanghai my take is that it had spread much more before dectection and action. I hope it is not too late...
- the situation people in Shanghai are experiencing, with a strict lockdown, is new for them, but it is exactly what we lived here in France in mid-March 2020. A full lockdown at short notice, announced for 2 weeks, then renewed for 2 weeks, and again twice, which led us to an end of lockdown in early May after 8 weeks. I can relate to the discomfort and anxiety of people in Shanghai...
- ... BUT, the huge difference is that back then in France we had no vaccine (did not exist), no masks (too scarce, reserved for medical professions, we had to sew our own mask at home with left over fabric), etc... while now in Spring 2022 there are vaccines and masks have never been an issue in China. So the real issue are the non vaccinated people, or (sorry for the fingerpointing) more precisely the non vaccinated elderly. You mention the explanation for that low vaccination rate among the elderly is that doctors prescribe some of them not to be vaccinated because of the risks: this is totally transferring the burden of this pandemia towards the younger generations. We had exactly this debate here in early 2022 when they opened (facultative) vaccination for children: it was like asking children, who get almost no direct benefit from the vaccine, to bear the burden for the benefit of the 15% of elderly who refused (and I stress it, in France it was: refused) to be vaccinated. Maybe there will be a change of mind in China too on this subject? We have to show respect to the elderly, but the elderly have to take their responsibilities too. Unless I have missed something and the vaccines especially in China are dangerous for the elderly...
- about China seen as authoritatian (through their action to fight Covid), honestly in Spring 2020 I found myself locked at home (in a flat facing North, no direct sunlight, view on the apartments 10m across the street) without any judicial decision to deny me my freedom of movement, I had to school my kid at home in daytime and work from home in evenings because my work was not disrupted, while some neighbours were paid/compensated with public money to stay at home without working at all (and complaining nonetheless), and we saw people hoarding food, hoarding facemasks (which were very scarce back then). So all 3 values in our motto, Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité, were totally wiped out during these times. Truly we see images of committees in Shanghai who have gone too far, with fencing, blocking doors, seperating families, sacrificing pets, but for the other places in Shanghai where lockdown seems to be enforced 'normally', it is no different from what we had here
- my last point is a wild guess: you are mentioning foreigners intending to leave China. I think it will be particularly true for Europeans or other westerners, probably less for foreigners from other continents. And my guess about the foreigners who will join China later on, is that the balance will shift more towards people from non-western countries.
Thanks again for covering this issue, and all the best to the people in China!
If you have a grasp of Confucian principles, then you should realise that Chinese *value the elderly* in society. That's why China prioritize keeping elderly folk safe, even if at the cost to the economy. Loss of money and income is tragic yes, but people can always make money later aferwards. But once elderly people lost their lives, then no amount of money can buy back lives once they are gone.
@@Shenzhou. If the Chinse value the elderly so much why weren't they vacinated first? In the UK they and their care's got priority.
@@Andy-P It's because the UK government just let the virus spread rampantly throughout their population, so the elderly folk in UK felt the urgency to vaccinate to protect themselves as much as possible. Whereas in China, initially the government did such a good job controlling the outbreaks, so much such that as an unfortunate consequence, many elderly in China just don't feel the urgency to vaccinate, and tend to postpone it for later.
I am a senior living in Toronto Ontario ,in 2020/2021 Ontario were under lockdown off and on ,restaurants ,stores , school closed . Supermarket and drugstore open with 30% capacity, so we wait outside in freezing temperatures. I buy 3 weeks grocery, you don’t need fresh fruits and vegetables every day. I don’t know what people in Shanghai were complaining about .
I was so worried about getting Covid , where do you go if you get sick, I was envious about the quarantine camp that you can go to in China . Who cares if the place is a dump , you don’t have to worry about getting your family sick (or die ) you have 3 meals a day , someone check on you every day to see if you are dead or not , that’s all I worried about . Now we live with Covid which means it’s every where , in restaurants , bars , stores , gyms you will get it no matter how careful you are and hope you don’t pass it on to you elderly parents or unvaccinated young children.
China have to keep the zero Covid policy until it’s safe , otherwise it will be like India , New York , Hong Kong …. with dead bodies everywhere until it die down after 2 months. It’s not worth the chaos . If it’s lockdown for 10-30 days to live in a Covid free city , it’s not bad , unless you rather live with Covid knowing it’s everywhere.
Thanks for sharing
Every country has the sovereign right to determine what works well for their citizens. Protecting the health of people is the first and foremost priority of any country.
True. That country then also has to live with the consequences.
I assume you mean not every country but every country's leaders.
I agree to a point. If the leadership makes incredibly bad decisions that harm its people, the the leadership loses its right to lead. In an autocracy, the leaders might continue to retain their positions, but a responsive government would replace with leadership that performs for its people.
Nice statement, but when the the USA or Western Europeans tagging along with the Americans ever ever respected any other country's sovereignty and right to self determination? Just name ONE instance.
@@tonysu8860 In "democracy" counties, the bad leaders will continue to lead and continue to cause damage and death for many, until their terms are over . A responsive government will replace the bad leaders quickly and stop the damage.
Appreciate the matter-of-fact and unbiased tone of your analysis,
After this I want even more go to China. The government give more effort to life instead of money, is about that.
My understanding is China current Strategy is to hold and stall out until the next dominant variant comes out or their omicron vaccines gets approved. Hopefully the next variant that comes out will be even more milder than Omicron. And if that happens, I believe they will be ready to open up.
However, if a deadlier comes out, China would be in a stronger and safer position by maintaining the current zero covid policy. Let’s pray and hope that the virus will get replaced by itself with a weaker version of it
I think that's pretty fair. People spent two years blaming China for not containing it and now they want China to just let it spread? And if it turns out to be worse, then what? Blame China for letting it spread? What are we, freaking stupid?
Why yes. Because the west like to virtue signal while reaping the benefits.
@@questworldmatrix The key question is, can a China and the World ready to bear and accept the consequences of another widespread outbreak in China? They just wan to demonize China for every action and make China the boogie man
European decoupling from China may yet be a good sign. The next century belong to Asia and that’s where the world’s economy will be centered on. Let come back in 3 months and revisit this video again.
majority of the people there has not been vacin..you need to underatand ccp vacin is 3 stage..
1 st vacin and meed more time before you can apply second vacin...and 3 you need 1month after the second vacin...
you critick them without knowing the whole situasion was stupid bro..not because is not working
I definitely agree with your argument or analysis about the pandemic outbreak in Shanghai. You are the only one I touched on RUclips who goes with quite objective comments about that.
The fact about the virus now is:
1. It's varying and developing constently, we don't know where it will go.
2. We still know little about the virus up to now.
I'm living in Hong Kong. Take Hong Kong as an example, 1 million peope were infected and almost 10 thousand people died in this wave of outbreak.
There are around 1400 million people in China. If we choose TANGPING, the consequence could be tragic, imagine it...it is highly possible that the whole society would be out of order at that time since the limited medical resources are unable to cope with that. In a long term, economy would be worse rather than better. America and Europe have choosen TANGPING strategy. It seems that the economic situation is still bad.
Why did they select TANGPING? I believe it is because their system is not capable of such a emergency. They have not second choice, they have to TANGPING. But this is not for China, it has more valid choice except from TANGPING, and the experiences in the past 2 years tell us maybe China is doing a correct thing now.
Frankly, I have to say, Shanghai government performs badly in this wave of the outbreak.
I’m in Hong Kong and I agree with you, we never went into a lockdown instead we were forced to accept our new reality of “ to live with a the virus” but not completely opened up, we kept some restrictions into place such as income foreigners compulsory 7 day quarantine and vaccine pass is required for entering most venues. Tbh I’m glad we didn’t went into lockdown cuz hk having the highest population density in the world, it would have been almost impossible. But I also wonder how could it had been of we did went into lockdown? Another thing is that our hk government is very lenient and most of the time they just trust people complying with the rules, and health workers are more compassionate towards the citizens even if it means, risking their lives. I can’t speak for all, but this is what happened to me. There was one time I had to go through an emergency surgery during pandemic time and in the public hospital they asked me if I had COVID or not and I said no, they didn’t do a test cuz it was a life or death situation and they carried on performing the surgery that saved me life. So I have to say if this happened to me under a stricter COVID regulations hospitals, they wouldn’t have been able to even touch me . I respect Shanghai people endurance, for enduring this harsh time and I truly hope they can go back to covid zero asap, however compared to hk the situation has been managed different and in fact many people got it died during our March outbreak, it was truly horrible to see people left and right getting it. However most of them survived it, including kids and elderly , the ones who didn’t make it was the ones with underlying health issues which was really sad and made hk people really angry. But nothing we could do cuz we just following what the government thought was right. I hope to hear good news coming from Shanghai soon, my heart goes to you all. Truly truly, stay safe and stay strong!
Loss of income is tragic yes, but money loss can be earned back. But once elderly people lose their lives to the virus then no amount of money can buy back those lives that have been lost.
How many elderly have been vaccinated?
@@Andy-P Around 51% of elderly above 80 years of age have received two vaccine doses.
@@Shenzhou. Not so many. I can see why the current Zero-covid policy still has traction in China. Also have read the Chinese vaccines are not so effective against latest versions. Lock down it is then
@@Andy-P I've read on NYT that while two doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine offered older people only a moderately high level of protection against severe disease and death from Covid-19, a *third dose significantly bolstered* their defenses, according to a new study by scientists in Hong Kong.
_For people 60 and older, two Sinovac doses were 72% effective against severe or fatal Covid-19 and 77% effective against Covid-related death, the study found. The same study found they were 90% effective against severe or fatal Covid and 92% effective against death among Hong Kong residents of the same age group. A Sinovac booster shot helped considerably, proving to be 98% effective against severe or fatal Covid among people at least 60 years old, the study found._
...
Source: _New York Times_
It's absurd to criticize China's health care system based on one hiccup in Shanghai. Look at how well Western health care systems functioned during this pandemic...
- USA: 83,240,101 infections, 1,021,581 deaths
- Brazil: 30,482,429 infections, 663,765 deaths
- India: 43,088,401 infections, 523,920 deaths
- Russia: 18,206,167 infections, 376,421 deaths
- Mexico: 5,740,080 infections, 324,350 deaths
- UK: 22,073,858 infections, 175,319 deaths
- France: 28,757,765 infections, 146,262 deaths
- Germany: 25,047,861 infections, 136,405 deaths
- Poland: 5,997,998 infections, 116,070 deaths
- Ukraine: 5,002,870 infections, 108,411 deaths
- Spain: 11,953,481 infections, 104,668 deaths
- South Africa: 3,802,198 infections, 100,377 deaths
- Turkey: 15,036,110 infections, 98,801 deaths
- China: 218,198 infections, 5,128 deaths
(from Worldometer, May 4, 2022)
There's no comparison!
True. But healthcare system in China's big cities is already often overloaded even before pandemic, so I do believe it to be a challenge bigger than in my country Belgium for example. We have 100+ most advanced hospitals for 11 million people. US is different story as it depends on how much you can afford.
I look at worldometer too. I dismiss western criticism. need to mind their own business
9000 people died in 2 weeks in HK Omicron outbreak in April 2022. This proves that Omicron IS NOT MILD as most of us believe. Omicron is still deadly to people who are not vaccinated, especially the seniors and young children.
The low death rate in the west and US is due to most seniors are vaccinated and those most vulnerable were already dead. Omicron IS DEADLY to those not vaccinated.
Everyone, especially the seniors, should KEEP UP with the vaccines as much as possible. I am going to have my 4th shot this week.
People in China have been living free most of the times for the last 2 years, while people in the west and the US living with semi-lock down and have millions of deaths. There are many people still working at home in the US.
Totally agree with your opinion. The way I look at it is that too many people, both Chinese and foreign, expect the Chinese government can deliver the right action plan 100% of the time. Humans are not perfect and Omicron doesn't care about humans either. The China image has been tarnished for quite some time, with or without covid. The healthcare system in Shanghai might have the capacity to handle an outbreak. However, not sure whether all the coastal regions can withstand the onslaught if Shanghai chose to live with covid.
Pascal, your point of view is very real and accurate, this time it is the Shanghai government that screwed things up! Swinging between coexistence and zero policy, missed a good opportunity to block and control. Worst of all, the closure was so sudden that Shanghai residents were caught off guard, and the remedial measures needed were horribly bad. Some leaders of the Shanghai government need to be laid off, which has disappointed the whole Chinese people.
Shanghai gov't didn't learn from the HK Omicron outbreak experience in April 2022 which caused 9000 deaths in 2 weeks. It is inexcusable.
Children were separated from their parents forcefully and many parents lost contacts with their children at the US Mexican borders after the forceful separations by the US government agents. I don’t think there were any outcry at all throughout the Western world did it? Frankly sick of these hypocrisies and double standards of the western media.
So sad 😭
Agreed. At least in Shanghai the children and family are within the same city in the same country. But those children separated from immigrant parents at the US-Mexican border are in separate countries.
Why did the try to seek entry into America?
@@Shenzhou. How immigrants people queue up at the Chinese border?
@@Andy-P China sees no real need for immigrants, we already have the world's largest population at 1.4 billion, so China only takes in the bare minimum of immigrants and no more than absolutely necessary. Whereas U.S immigration policy is too loose (in my opinion), they let just about anyone into their country (much to the disgruntlement of local Americans).
What choice for China have and with a population of 1.4 billion, everything bad that happen will be multiply many times. China has seen examples from countries like US, UK and Italy. The Omicron may not be deadly but what if the virus mutates into something more deadly. There are two things Chinese believe and there are 1) lives are more important that money and 2) it is better to be safe than to be sorry.
Great points!
Thank you once again for your insight Pascal, I have enjoyed many of your presentations.
Thanks
I approve and thinks it's a mandate for Chinese to keep zero-tolerance policy agt Covid including omicron. After all life is priceless, and especially senior citizens like our grandpa, grandma ...etc are most vulnerable to this kind desease. Of course all people need self-disciplined rule to wear mask and insulate themselves from general populace once Covic suspected. This is the only way to maintain complete society safe.
Agreed. Confucian principles teaches that the elderly are valued members of society after all. Loss of income is tragic, but money loss can be earned back. But once elderly people lose their lives to the virus, then no amount of money can buy back lives that have been lost.
How many old folks have been vaccinated in China?
You are the first westerner which explain the covic policy of China with clarity and common sense . None of the biase BS we keep getting here. Please keep up the good work
Thanks! Appreciated!
This is a real good and unbiased analyse.You must have done a lot of investigations on it.Thanks.
I think if foreigners are so hard to work with in difficult time, maybe less of them will be better.
Agreed. Some of these expats were initially singing praises when Chinese cities carried out successful reopenings after lockdowns, while the rest of the world was ravaged by the virus 2 years ago. But now that the West has decided to live with the virus, some of these expats changed their tune.
I think China is preparing for the worst, which is a war with the US. These border closures and lockdowns are just dress rehearsals to prepare the citizens in case the worst scenario happens. Meanwhile, domestic food productions and internal consumptions are being ramped up to maximize the self-sustaining economic model. China was prosperous for thousands of years on its own without much exposure to the outside world. However, today's global economy is vastly different, and the current trajectory could be a mistaken in the making. At any rate, I think the Chinese are smart enough to navigate these dangerous waters to avoid that worst case scenario. Peace to all.
Very interesting view to look at it as a rehearsal for war in future.
shanghai gov and other bad actors (profiteering and racketeering) should bear full responsibility.
One of the most objective views I have ever heard. Thanks!
Thanks
Well Said and Support !
Thank you Pascal, for a very comprehensive analysis of the present covid lockdown in Shanghai. Would appreciate it if you could elaborate on why the doctors in Shanghai are discouraging vaccinating the above 60 age group in Shanghai. Why?
I live in Changchun. The city was under lockdown from March 12 until last Thursday. Now they are lifting it up slowly. It will happen again. I'll tell you why.
Everyone can enter small shops, no checking. For bigger shops, you need a tracking app that doesn't work for foreigners. There are so many loopholes in the policy.
Nobody ever asked me if I were vaccinated. I took 2 doses.
It is your freedom to decide whether to take the vaccine. And asking this question is nonsense. If your answer is no, what are they going to do with you? Deny your entrance? Take you to a vaccination centre? How undemocratic!!!! BBC and CNN will go crazy! Fortunately, most Chinese understand their responsibility and take vaccines. We rely on them!
more affluent equal more demand for entitlement.
Very possible. It would be interesting to compare % of affluent population of countries with how people follow the covid measures.
YES!
People on the fence are now pushed over.
China will act in the best interests/well-being of her people. Foreigners especially those who can't withstand the heat ought not be hanging around in the kitchen. They won't be missed.
Agreed. Some of these expats were initially singing praises when Chinese cities carried out successful reopenings after lockdowns, while the rest of the world was ravaged by the virus 2 years ago. But now that the West has decided to live with the virus, some of these expats changed their tune.
In my opinion, without question China's zero covid policy is correct. China has prioritized human lives above profit. However, Shanghai decided to try something different in order to appease business interests, and as a result Shanghai suffers with high covid numbers. Meanwhile, Shenzen, Beijing and other major Chinese cities remained diligent with zero covid policy, and they are able to keep covid numbers low. It puzzles me why anyone continues to question the efficacy of China's zero covid policy.
Thanks for sharing. Many people in the West don't see how China will ever be able to lift the zero-cocid policy without going through many deaths at one point. They see the policy purely as a delay of the inevitable, therefore inhumane, not a policy that will eradicate covid. I have a different view as I am sure China will start experimenting with lifting policy step by step in a controlled manner, but it will not be easy as long as omicron is killing the unvaccinated elderly.
I agree with you that if we totally let go, thats unfair to people that have other illness or patients who already in the hospital. The sudden spike of covid patients may become burden to healthcare system if everyone running to hospital and resulted many dies due to unsufficient medical support.
A planned measures must be studied to make sure everything is under control.
The rural country may not have fully covered healthcare system. But the best aspect is that it is not densely populated, so the spread may not be so fast.
I think that asian are more commodative to lock down measures if such measures are well planned and cater for people's daily needs, such as food and water.
However, we must admit that not everyone follow orders if no one is checking on the implementation. We are not robot. Most of the time, measures should tie with law and order and patroling to make sure people follows order.
Heads will roll in Shanghai thats for sure. I am in Guangzhou and they are handling similar situations much much better.
It should be noted that under Confucian principles, Chinese *value the elderly* in society, that's why China prioritize keeping elderly folk safe, even if at the cost to the economy. Loss of money and income is tragic yes, but people can always make money later aferwards. But once elderly people lost their lives, then no amount of money can buy back lives once they are gone.
that's why all the old men are smoking and smoking is not banned, cigarettes' and cheap and first cause of death in China is lung cancer. China values the elderly, but better if they just die when they can't work anymore. Lung cancer is perfect for this as people tend to die after 50-60 yrs old. Reasons behind Covid zero are even darker than this, but I abstain...
Looking forward to
我的认识可能看起来有点像阴谋论，但是很make sense
开始我觉得这次上海可能只是准备不善，行政系统或者上海社会应对这种情况比较烂
但是过了这么久，高级官员去过了，解放军都进城了，现在改善有限，就让我更倾向于下面的猜测
1、今年开大会上海有人要搞事
2、上海是中国对covid处理方式有其他看法的人集中地，搞事实共存
3、更阴谋论一点，上海是外国势力搞事
实际上现在中国其他地方的疫情，几乎都是上海外溢。但是上海之前和之后，omicron都没引起太大波澜，更证明了上海情况特殊。
1. 有看過那兩母女播毒的資料嗎
2. 抹黑中藥和蓮花清瘟，以推西方特效藥的操作
3. 網軍煽動市民情緒，唯恐天下不亂，製造反政府勢頭
4. 西媒炒作攻擊清零政策，企圖迫使中國選擇躺平。若繼續嚴格策略便攻擊你是「專制」，若躺平而引起大量死亡則攻擊你無能保護人民。是他們一貫技倆。只要看他們怎樣報導（或不報導）其他地方的爆發和失控就知道。
Also in HK.
Thank you for giving another, perhaps more neutral view point.
New BA.4 and BA.5 variants in South Africa seem able to escape natural immunity in some extend. Their severity is still unkown (Alex Sigal)
China is trying to beat covid the way Australia did. Zero covid stayed until 80 per cent of the population was vaccinated, then things opened up pretty quick with no major problems. Some states, Victoria, in particular, was locked down for many months. Others, like Queensland, didn't have many lockdowns and it was business as usual.
Except that China is using vaccines that don’t really work.
We reopened too soon and Omicron killed 1000's of people. That's a lot considering Australia's population. If China did the same thing I can't imagine the number of deaths.
@@Shermos same for Hong Kong during our March outbreak we peaked 50k cases a day it was truly horrible.
Just a correction. China isn't trying to follow Australia by locking down Shanghai. Locking down to prevent the spread of COVID started with the first spread of the virus in Wuhan. The zero-covid policy came out from there as China saw how virulent this pandemic was. I believe Australia and NZ followed suit seeing how successful China was in combatting the pandemic and the economic benefits derived from such a policy. The local shops thrived.
I understand they worked as well as many other non-mRNA vaccines. I agree they worked less well than Pfizer or Moderna.
Is China losing the war depends on what is China's goal. If the goal is minimizing death and avoid possible long term side effects of recovering from covid, China achieved her goal. The war is still going on, hard to say it is a win, but definitely not losing. Countries like US, their goal is as long as health care facilities are not overwhelming, although they still have over 1900 death in a day, they archived their goal. The over 1 million death in US government's mind are dispensable in order to achieve higher economic return and stability. Because of different culture and goal, a win or lose is not a simple answer.
Thanks for the feedback. I do believe the goal is indeed to minimize deaths.
@@PascalCoppens I believe too, admire China's efforts to save vulnerable people regardless there are financial losses. China is putting people first as always. Now China do need to consider individual's financial and mental health. Although Shanghai is already kind of out of control in cases, death is still minimal in world standard. People in Shanghai had been locked down for a long time, could be time to use it as a test city to only quarantine positive people instead of most of the city. Try increase vaccination of older people and concentrate efforts on positive ones and gives others a break. Masks and some other measures could still be in place. I have confidence in China to find out the best solution. Best wishes to everyone!
I think most of the people that are outrage in Shanghai are foreigners and rich Chinese citizens. This people are getting soft and having a big head as they think that that they deserve better.
Many of them indeed. But also singles who have little support from friends/family in the anonymous city; and also less fortunates who have really been not so fortunate to pay more for food.
Shandong and most other provinces have done well, and will continue to do so. Shenzhen had a similar outbreak, but now control it by 48 testing before going to any congested public areas. North China - Shenyang , not Beijing are following approach now found successful in Shenzhen. We now expect this new - very consistent testing the whole city will continue in most cities. testing facilities are now in almost ALL Shenyang or Shenzhen communities to be able to test quickly, easily . Here ins Qingdao , we now are being tested weekly , and every couple weeks, tested twice weekly. Before we can go to major Public locations... And we all are happy and continue to wear masks in such public areas. Under these controls, business and life is basically working normally...
Thanks for the update
I think China's image will take a hit but it will largely recover when people realize that China did what was necessary to safeguard the country, despite Western criticism.
I hope so.
China's image always seems to take a hit in the West. Regardless of whatever measures China chooses to implement, Western MSM are all too happy to portray it in a negative light to their audiences.
I don't think China's image to the outside world is such a problem. There are other things affecting China's image like support for the Russian war and human rights. I think the CCP's own image in China could be a problem. Combined with issues of debt and collapse of Real Estate. The effect of this will start to hit after the big conference latter this year. Until then Xi will do what it takes to pump GDP growth and keep a lid on the problems. Then all the above + demographic decline and mounting environmental problems, decoupling.... While the west deffinitely has problems to China's continue to build.
@@Andy-P China is not supporting the Ukraine war. Like most other nations in the world, China remains neutral.
However, China acknowledges that USA and NATO were largely responsible for pushing Russia into this war.
Yes, China does face major economic issues, as do many other countries, including USA. I have much more confidence that China can work around their issues than USA can for theirs. The Americans have been laughably incompetent over the past four decades.
@@horridohobbies Agree to disagree. China propagates the Russian point of view as you acknowledge. I don't have the same confidence in the CCP as you. I do agree the CCP acknowledges the problems it is facing but will continue to find it hard to overcome the vested interests of the local goverments. But I could be wrong and after Xi's election he will be more successful in tackling these vested interests and get China to accept lower sustainable growth of no more the 3%.
In this past two months, I wept after watching many videos like #voicesofapril and countless other ones that are censored on Chinese media. I never thought my home country can end up in this situation where it seemed like history is repeating itself. I felt helpless. However, I have always had Hope that the citizens, families, and friends will survive this contagious outbreak as well as the controversial #lockdown policies 🙏🙏
Doing such a harsh lockdown in a country that is much less hopeful would be even harder.
But what's the alternative? Had Shanghai not implemented lockdown, many more elderly people would become victims. That would be a tragedy to someone's family in Shanghai.
@@Shenzhou. indeed, many with weak immune systems would be plagued if COVID ravaged without containing it. So it’s somewhat a dilemma between the secondary effects of the lockdown such as poor distribution of necessities& sustenance, and the primary threat of COVID threatening the lives of the old and the weak
@@okwatever3582 Poor distribution of resources and necessities is a logistical problem for a city of 26 million. But the logistics can always be improved over time (as it's happening right now in Shanghai) whereas had Shanghai not implemented lockdown, the surge in cases would overwhelm its medical facilities and possibly cause more deaths (both covid related and not)
Yes
My opinion on it, as someone who had omicron, is that even tough the disease doesnt kill you, there are some people that report "long covid".
lockdowns, quarantines and isolations, affect the economy.
but for some people, catching covid can also make you feel unwell for some weeks and that will also be bad for work productivity.
True
No one knows yet the long term consequences of contracting and recovering from Covid.
Some report "long haul" symptoms, chronic and serious consequences that will affect them the rest of their lives, sometimes debilitating.
There was a study last year that suggested 50% of all who recover develop mental problems which might need medical treatment within 9 mths of recovery.
The numbers of seriously affected might be numerically small relative to the entire population but are serious enough no one should be cavalier about getting the virus.
9000 people died in 2 weeks in HK Omicron outbreak in April 2022. This proves that Omicron IS NOT MILD as most of us believe. Omicron is still deadly to people who are not vaccinated, especially the seniors and young children.
Everyone, especially the seniors, should KEEP UP with the vaccines as much as possible. I am going to have my 4th shot this week.
I think both option (zero COVID-19 policy and living with the virus) are the CPC options. Nathan Rich did a great video recently on this subject, falling medias coverage of the Shanghai situation.
For me, the zero COVID-19 policy should have been adopted in all developed countries. Every country that did not try this policy basically committed a crime against humanity because letting people die because of their condition (health or revenue) is a crime.
Regarding China, I think they are waiting to see the COVID-19 mortality drop to 0 before they will decide to live with the virus. I don't really think it's a good idea because we know what the long term effect of COVID-19 are. But on the other hands they need to officially put an end to COVID-19 for life to start again, and I think everyone agrees that the sooner we can be done with COVID-19 the better it is.
Suggest you learn more about China's dynamic zero-COVID policy, not a simply zero policy! Thanks to this policy, the Chinese people have enjoyed a normal life for most of the past 2.5 years.
@@ccchen3496 I got friends in China and living with a Chinese girl from China here in my country for study, I think I understand how the zero covid policy in China works thanks.
@@ccchen3496 In New York City, we live with semi-lock down for more than 2 years. Many people in the US are still working from home.
@@hyc1266 so live in your city and enjoy your life! Let Chinese people live their life.
@@wiiistful7499 as I said, first thing you need to do is to figure out the correct policy! And having friends in China doesn't mean you know China. Like BBC journalists, they just waste their time in China and work so hard on making fake news! I live in another country but never dare to say oh I know your policy and your problems!!!!
It will be faster as Shenzhen did if there‘s no local famous Shanghai compradors’ “kind helps”.
Thanks Pascal as always great work. Still bummed that China may not open this year 😕😔😔
Yes, I think omicron is still too potent to change opening up plan.
@@PascalCoppens oh well. Waiting game now
China is already winning this battle
Shanghai accepted most number of visitors from overseas in past 2 years and controlled covid very well. I think Shanghai could be too confident in March and early April and under estimated Omicron. Many things are poorly managed this time and they should definitely be improved. The main concern I believe from China Gov point is the too many people die in short period of time if let go or so called "live with covid" now. People now complained a lot for poor management and inconvenience/income lost caused by zero covid, if the death number go high, people will be much more angry. After two years with almost covid free, most of Chinese people can not accept covid as normal flu like disease in their mind now. It takes time and more information from media or Gov needed to make normal people re-think about covid Omicron. It is already much weaker than early variances. China's old age (65+) population is about 17%. Many of them are still reluctant to get vaccine (not only covid vaccine). So it is hard to push the vaccine rate higher in short time for them. High vaccination rate a key to protect against Covid. I read news said there is only 60% people(65 years old or above) in Shanghai got fully vaccinated, 80 years old, only 30%. These age group is more dangerous even for Omicron. based on Singapore local data, unvaccinated people (65years old or older) average death rate is 7% with medical support. Shanghai got about 4.1million old people, 40% of them are not fully vaccinated. that is 1.6million. Omicron death rate is about 20% compared to delta. So we take 1.4% death rate for old age unvaccinated people, that will be 22.4 thousand lives! This is still assuming there is medical support. Many western counties already get used to the death number of covid or at least big media do not focus on it already. I can understand they want move on and save economy. But without understanding the past 2 years condition in China, it is hard to understand why China still can not accept omicron. China medical system is not to the level of many developed countries yet. e.g. ICU beds number per million people in China is 3, Japan is 7, Singapore is 11. Chinese people also do not get used to visit small clinic, they preferred to go to hospital. If covid infected people suddenly go very high, people may rush to hospital for even less critical symptoms. Then medical system will be overwhelmed. Many people will not be able to get basic support at that time. If that happened, people will not say live with covid is a good choice already. So Omicron is weaker but China is not ready to face it like west now. I agreed with your statement, Covid is not gone, we just deny it or ignore it. I think China Gov is buying time by pushing zero covid, they need build up more medical facilities, need push harder to get older generation get vaccination (+booster, even with semi-force policy like Singapore could be a good choice). In Singapore, not fully vaccinated people can not go to school, can not go to office, can not go into any indoor shopping mall, buildings, restaurants... Hope the covid can get even weaken after omicron variance. I think China has complex situation now, people should not easily say zero covid is not practical. I believe China is preparing the new transition, they already approve covid treatment medicine made from US. But they will adjust their policy very carefully step by step! Best wishes to China from Singapore.
Thanks! This explanation is very accurate and great addition. Truly appreciated.
China can't lift its Zero COVID policy if COVID is still spreading in the rest of the world and if most seniors in China still not vaccinated.
From what I heard was that because of the large population in Shanghai and it's economical influence the provincial government was reluctant to go ahead with lockdown which was in conflict with the central government's policy. That created the situation of delayed actions and lead to the result of larger number of positive cases. On the other hand, it was speculated that a couple who were tested positive were traveling in Shanghai thereby spreading cases around. They were eventually arrested and said that they were doing that with foreign financial backing.
Sounds far fetched, but what isn't these days.
The Shanghai local government should be blamed for the chaos. Should Shanghai govt implemented strict lockdown in early stage, as what Shenzhen did, the situation would be much different.
Most likely it would indeed have been different.
I am Shanghai resident and have been locked down at home more than 45days. yes the days are upset and yes it's okay.on the other hand,I have plenty of time to read and exercise. we do support the zero covid policy, but I don't blame the city government, such a big commercial city with so many elders, was shut down in sudden, how to organize the supplies in a short time I can't imagine. Or we can say it supposed be a plan for shut down. but actually it there's not. that's the most primary problem. why there's not？that is beyond my imagination.but definitely not because so called"Shanghai's arrogance", simple reason: all senior officers are not from Shanghai.
Thanks for your most valuable feedback. This helps put some nuance into the story.
In NYC we faced the same problems such as couldn't get medical help with illness other than COVID, in Spring 2020. Many people were found dead on streets and at home.
We have to do what we(Chinese) believe is best for our society cos if we get complacent and hundreds of thousands lives are lost then it is unacceptable. There is nothing we can do if foreigners are upset and they are free to leave if they feel that their personal freedoms are more important than everyone else's well being. To us this is selfishness.
Thanks for your feedback
Hello, Would you like to combine your expertise on China with the expertise of John Campbell? He marvels at the Chinese covid approach.
Zero COVID will not work
@@Kuasarakyat2 I agree! It unfortunately can not work. Although I very much appreciate the concern for the health of the weaker citizens
I am not an expert on covid or medicine, so not sure if I can add much more to his insights. But appreciate the suggestion!
I'm British, living in Nanjing. I assure you the entire process is about extending government reach and presupposing that government permission is required for going shopping, going to work, and going home; it is about control through fear and absolutely nothing else.
I do sympathise with many foreigners in lockdown past months. I have many foreign friends living in Shanghai who think different as well. Will you leave China?
@@PascalCoppens The govt had its fun with Nanjing last summer and early in 2020 before moving the terrorism elsewhere, so it hasn't been so bad but indeed phone technology is developing ominously and is an instrument of control the world's never seen before.
There seems to have been a shift in national policy to more personal interference- almost everyone already admires the govt system with its huge achievements but now the feeling even for the sheeplike Chinese isn't the same.
And China seems to be going back to its centuries of isolationism and stopping all exit and entry for its citizens- something that affects me as I have a long term partner...
Like you I try to be fair to China and its interesting culture and qualities- for example the government has more support and hence legitimacy than any major Western government does from its population.
I've written extensively following my experiences- I've lived and travelled here about nine years. Best wishes.
@@seanmchugh840 As a Chinese, I can't understand. Maybe it has something to do with the general election in October this year. The last change of office was also chaotic. In 13 years, there was a national parade.
I lived in Viet Nam. For the 1st 9 months it was quite amazing with total mask mandates and lockdns, both targeted and wide spread, it worked a thousand cases and 35 deaths. Then Delta came and exploded, so, using Astro Zenica they vacinated everyone and things are pretty good now and they are reopening
There are still many people refused to get vaccinated in the US. The virus is still spreading all around but dead rate is low due to most people are vaccinated and most vulnerable people were already dead.
A wise man (I forgot his name) pointed out: that the life is the first one of your wealth, the rest are the zeros behind this one. Without the one, none of the zeros makes any sense. If covid-19 virus took someone's life, anything else of this victim matters? Freedom? Human rights? Wealth? or anything you would point out?
Dude it is great many foreigners leaving China. It means that I can return to my motherland.
Don't see the relation, but happy for you that you can return to your motherland.
Its not easy to understand how to engage with Omicron. For which Country relax sure the economy will flourish but will more headache for Employer lots of Medical Leave from employee for at least a week due to strong Flu, then again they are very worry about the long term side effect in thier years to come. Hope that they will come faster for a drug that can overcome this strong Flu,
真实反应了我身边人的想法；同时，我也了解到大量老外因为这件事会离开上海。
Thanks for confirming it. 谢谢！
Suggestions in China are Shanghai dropped the ball, and does not follow closely the Direction from Beijing. There is still a strong representation in Shanghai Govt, which are from the other party, and don't fully support Xi. Some Chinese suggest , this could have been let go, to try to destablize things , against Xi and Beijing's policy.
Thanks for the info
I live in city Suzhou. And I support zero-covid policy.
If Shanghai gave up zero-covid policy, Suzhou and Hangzhou will directly suffer a lot by that. Have you seen there are sooooooo many Shanghainese came in secret in the last month?
Once when the daily new cases in Shanghai declines, the moving people to Suzhou disappears.
Pascal! Can u do a Video where u discuss If China can withstand Russia type Sanctions and how they will grow?
I like the idea of making a video on whether China could cope with Russia type sanctions.
@@PascalCoppens Pls do. It would be wonderful.
An example of "Too much control" that may lead to lost control. Pretty good lesson in SH for China to learn from.
Maybe that is the one thing we often forget is that every action is a lesson to learn from.
So how do you explain the loss of control in other countries? Too much or too little control? BTW, even at peak times, we have far fewer cases than some countries!
@@ccchen3496 I'm on your side, CC! Living in China +Asia, since 1985. The West was totally crazy, had no idea of the madness orchestrated by obscure forces! While China saw it coming (from "Forth the Trick"), very aware of what to do to protect herself, like most people that I know in China did, as where your vaccines are way safer. Genki de ne!!
It is mismanagement and evil merchants that caused the problems in Shanghai.
@@hyc1266 your comments really show your IQ 😂
I am wondering why China is so insistent on this zero Covid policy. Do they know something we don't know?
That many would people die I guess.
I have one question: How accurate are the numbers about infections and deaths?
Honestly 5000 deaths is unbelievably low.
As local governments get in trouble when not reporting correct numbers, they have an incentive to report correctly. This said, some deaths could be attributed to other diseases though. But even if numbers are lower than reported, we are talking about many thousands instead of millions what it should be if zero covid was not upheld.
5000 death out of 1.4 billion. that is nothing. in, u.s., there are more. than 83 million infections, more than a million death out of 311 million population.
The local Shanghai government screwed up. This shouldn't reflect on the central government.
Same thing in USA. During the pandemic, many state and municipal governments screwed up very badly. Nobody is perfect. China isn't perfect. USA isn't perfect. UK isn't perfect.
Even with 40 cities under lockdown, China's government is still doing a pretty good job. Remember, China's population is massive and China's cities are densely populated. Omicron presents a major challenge.
That is very true! We often forget the density of Chinese cities.
Pascal, your comments about the available vaccines in China are muddled... You say that it's recognized that the Chinese vaccines are inferior to the mRNA vaccines, and then you say that Chinese vaccines are as good as any vaccine around the world.
The current indisputable facts are that the 3 Chinese vaccines are 50% effective against the Omicron variant which is currently the dominant strain globally. Several studies agree on this, and the most recent study was published only about a week ago by Hong Kong University. 50% efficacy is generally recognized to be insufficient protection and cannot progress the population towards herd immunity which would protect the community as a whole, including those who are most vulnerable and might not be able to vaccinate for medical reasons.
The problem in Shanghai (and recent news is that Beijing may be locked down soon, too) is that because of Omicron's extreme infectious rate, it doesn't take more than a few infections to cause a widespread wildfire of contagion. Shanghai's initial reaction was inadequate and likely caused the virus to spread out of control so now it's anyone's guess how long the lockdown will continue. Remember that Wuhan's initial lockdown was for 3 mths but that was the original variant, not Omicron so the lockdown could be shorter or it could be longer.
The simple solution should be obvious.
China should swallow its pride and make deals with Pfizer and Moderna to revaccinate the entire Chinese population.
The result would be what Pascal observed in his visit to Belgium... People are so confident of their protection that even the most vulnerable can sit shoulder to shoulder in a crowded auditorium. And, this is in the interest of the global population. China is too large an industrial nation to remain sidelined by fear of contagion, and the longer any version of Covid exists, the more the virus will mutate and could again threaten every person's life globally again.
Since day 1 and even long before the appearance of Covid-19, every epidemiologist knew from the beginning that the only way that Covid could be defeated as a threat to humanity is through vaccination... or massive deaths on a super destructive scale, possibly decimating the total world population by 25%. Any country that values its people should promote effective vaccination because it's the only sure way to a long term and hopefully permanent return to normalcy.
Thanks for sharing. I do believe indeed if China would adapt mRNA vaccines, it would help a lot. My understanding is that this is in the works now, but not getting Pfizer or Moderna is a political decision indeed. It does not help China, although we could say it helps the underdeveloped world to get vaccinated first. I wonder if US would be OK to ship them to China though as they too make this political? I am not understanding as you do that Chinese vaccines with 50% effectiveness are less good than other non-mRNA vaccines around the world. All non-mRNA vaccines seem to be in almost same effectiveness range. Chinese vaccines are as good as it gets in the pre-mRNA vaccines world. China was behind on that innovation, but this is a matter of 2-3 years only. What China did is buy time with zero-covid lockdown to get mRNA vaccines ready. While the West had the option to rely on US based mRNA vaccines as a lead. That is the advantage of the rich West who could buy most of the worlds mRNA vaccines before anyone else. Simply said, if China and India would have vaccinated everyone with Pfizer and Moderna in 2021, most Europeans would still be not vaccinated.
Even China wants to adapt Pfizer or Moderna, both companies can't produce enough vaccines for China unless they are willing to produce in China.
I don't know what gave you the impression that mRNA vaccines are more effective than inactivated whole virus vaccines. Recent scientific literature is showing otherwise. China medical experts are giving proper advise to the political leadership unlike In the west where they act counter to the scientific data. A vaccine with the nucleocapsid, membrane and envelope epitopes can stimulate T cellular immunity better than mRNA vaccines which contained only spikeprotein antigen that produce temporary neutralising antibodies that wanes after a few months. Look at the data in Israel where only mRNA vaccines were given and they are into their fourth dose now. There are more breakthrough omicron infections leading to long covid which may be a burden to the health system and affect productivity of the country as a whole.
Few expats are leaving! the few that are, are the few here for short term work, and have no long term career prospects or long term business opportunity. Expats have been reducing in numbers, slower growth for many years. Mainly due to the Policy's to promote Chinese to place in important jobs and not rely on expats. Also greater scrutiny on only Qualified Teachers, from English Mother tongue countries.
I can relate to that trend even when I was still living in Shanghai 6 years ago.
Live with
Veet Dee
Veet Cee
Zeenque
Eyevermektinne
These prophylactics and we're good to go.
Monitor health and that's it.
Stop the zero tolerance madness.
I like to think of the pandemic as a roller coaster ride. There are several hills (waves) and of course, these are very serious because people are dying and so on. But western countries took the ride, passed these hills, and are now able to open up again and lift the restrictions (in my country we don't even need to wear masks anymore). But what China did was stop their wagon and just wait in front of these hills. Of course, in the beginning, this seemed to be smart because few people were dying in China. But now the rest of the world has left behind China and the country stucks in a loop of lockdowns without the possibility to reach herd immunity. I am now able to travel to other countries and live almost the same life as I did before the pandemic but my friends in China are far from reaching that point. Sadly the "one leader" system does not allow a change of policies since this would be considered a failure (In my country, we voted for another government and they changed the covid policies).
The problem with your analogy is that you don't truly know what the path is like ahead of the roller coaster. While it's calm for your country now, the next wave could be just around the corner (and possibly more deadlier than earlier waves). China is approaching with extreme precautions also because the China's wave is going to be enormous compared to other countries waves (because of our huge population size) so proceeding slowly helps minimise the toll the wave takes on our population (especially the elderly).
Other countries might see it as a race to the finish line, no matter how bumpy the path (and passengers falling off the ride), but China's approach is to make sure as many passengers reach the destination safely.
@@Shenzhou. I think this “We did the right thing, we have passed the test and you will be proven wrong” criticisms of China’s covid policy is exactly the narrative that western governments are selling to us at this point, just like how they sell us the concept of “herd immunity” at the beginning of the pandemic. I have been following the yt channels of a few doctors from UK and USA in the past 2 years, they talked about a lot of studies and research findings on important information related to the virus, vaccines and medicines, that were not in sync with what we were being told through mainstream media. I wonder how many people are aware of the recently disclosed scandals about the mRNA vaccines, or the prevalence of long covid symptoms…….. And people still think they are making informed and sound decisions. It’s such an irony that they try to say China’s dynamic zero covid policy is a “political decision”. China has not asked any other country to adopt her policy, why can’t people leave her alone to make her own decisions!
@@shnmak2958 _"神州 Shenzhou I think this "We did the right thing, we passed the test and you will be proven wrong" criticisms of China's covid policy is exactly the narrative that western governments are selling to us at this point, just like how they sell us the concept of "herd immunity" at the beginning of the pandemic."_
Agreed. It's nothing new that Western MSM has been attempting to portray whatever China does as wrong to their audiences.
@@Shenzhou.
Of course, there always could be a deadlier variant of the virus but the past 2 years showed us that the variants were becoming less and less deadly while herd immunity is protecting us better and better.
"so proceeding slowly helps minimize the toll the wave"
Yeah, that's what "flatten the curve" is all about. That's what western countries do all the time. The goal was never to reach zero covid. But China does not try to flatten the curve but to avoid it. That's why I say they stopped the wagon. Do you see a change in the Chinese covid policies? The chinese wagon is not just slow, it's not moving at all.
"Other countries might see it as a race to the finish line"
It's not a race in terms of competition. There is no competition of who will reach the end first but all (other) countries try to reach the end because we want to have the life we had before the pandemic. The problem is that the Chinese way does not fit into this way. While we are opening up China has to be closed in order to achieve zero covid. That is what we currently see and even the Chinese top virus expert Zhong Nanshan has admitted that China needs to open up.
"approach is to make sure as many passengers reach the destination safely."
This was the right approach at the beginning of the pandemic when we did not know enough about the virus. But the situation changed and you need to consider the damage of lockdowns as well. I am talking about the mental health of people who are in lockdown for months but also the damage to the economy which will lead to "injured passengers". At some point, the virus is less damaging than the covid restrictions.
Am I the only one who sees 4 replies but only can read 2?
China got scared by Hong Kong. You have to realize that Hong Kong use a lot of Western Vaccine as well, but it doesn't make much difference. However, the reality is that China can't contain Omicron forever as next winter will the same routine. I commented before that China has to plan when to have the pandemic, and rationally that time is near summer basically where we are now. The political system is dominated by old people and right now they are just delaying the inevitable, and this is a good test of their political system. Life has to go on.
Thanks for sharing. Interesting comment on vaccines in Hong Kong.
Lockdown is fine if basic necessities are met. I welcome it in fact.
It's strange that my English is not very good. Why can I understand your English at twice the speed.
🙏🙏🙏👌👌👌✌🏻✌🏻✌🏻
Thanks
Furthermore, when there is a lockdown. The rest of humanity is actually insulated from this (assuming it was not able to spread out of Shanghai.) That's a wonderful payback for a2 weeks "vacation".
They've said they'll stop zero COVID when vaxxed death rates drop to "acceptable level", my best guess is they want Shanghai and Beijing to get to zero just to show that they can, and then start to loosen the policy come mid- to late- summer
if they manage to lower to zero, summer is coming and won't be surges anymore. The policy will last another year ar last.. Only hope for people waiting for opening is if the measures fail and ccan't control anymore. Which i hope
While implementing a zero tolerance policy, vaccination efforts must be step up for the population, esp those above 60 yo to achieve herd immunity (at least to reduce severity of infection.
As long as the world is embedded with different strains of covid, China will need to be indefinitely isolated from the rest of the world with high economic, financial and social costs.
It not life vs money but life vs livelihood ( if the lockdowns continue unpredictably).
I fear that the early success of zero tolerance policy makes it harder for China to realize that such a strategy will be less effective and sustainable with the much more infectious Omicron.
Countries like NZ, Singapore and Australia had earlier tried lockdowns with success but found Omicron so much harder to contain even with widespread testing and tracing. An unexplained case will pop up here and there and then multiply exponentially. After achieving over 95% of vaccination rate, they open up progressively with low death rates.
I believe China must ultimately move to live with covid and take all measures to minimise mortality esp for the elderly.
If you understand Confucianism, then Chinese *value the elderly* in society, that's why China prioritize keeping elderly folk safe, even if at the cost to the economy. Loss of money and income is tragic yes, but people can always make money later aferwards. But once elderly people lost their lives, then no amount of money can buy back lives once they are gone.
@@Shenzhou. For some reason, you still refuse to see the point of argument. It's to save the elderlies by getting a high vaccination rate among them. Vaccination has been found to reduce infection rate and reduce infection severity. Omicron, unlike earlier variants, are much much more infectious. It's only a question of time before even lockdowns are not sustainable.
Forget about herd immunity. Future variants BA5 BA6 have immune escape. Long covid is a real threat to future well being of the vaccinated.
Two very different vaccines might be the best solution??
You mean mRNA vaccines?
@@PascalCoppens Yes, mRNA might give side effect of a small percentage of heart problems, long covid gives a lot higher percentage of people who are still alive but lost their job.
Ideally we get one vaccine that is 100% effective but isn’t on the market yet, if it can be made. Corona virus genetics are too different from human genetic makeup, it always makes us sick.
For the immune system it is too difficult to activate halfway and have long term cover against infection.
Ha ha ha,
Am not from China...I agree what d China did...
It is a question of degree. Covid19 gets less seriòus at every evolution.
Maybe Omicron is the last wave where zero covid is practicable.
Great discussion!
Agreed
testing is money
Only in the West! They are not private profiteers. It's all costs but if it saves lives, it's worth it.
It becomes part of economic activity. Test kit manufacturers, testing personnel, food delivery are all part of the economy.
Of course they are capable of winning the war, BUT what are the "collaterals"? Fencing from the outside for eternity which contradicts their goal of attracting foreign capital and foreign talent? I can only guess what psychological consequences such experiences have for the Shanghai people and if I extrapolate the affects for entrepeneurship and Innovation, i become less confident for Chinas future
Ste Sch For eternity? Since when do pandemics last for eternity? History shows it only lasts a few years
@@yerri5567 I agree, the time frame was exaggerated. But what History also shows that a virus needs to spread, in order to get endemic.
It is easy to say, that life is absolute and the highest value of all, because it is a simple truth. But what are you, as a country, willing and allowed to achieve this? This is a Crossroad. In China it seems to be possible to cage people in their own Houses, to separate families and simply ordering a entire workforce to stay at their facilities. I don't think these measures neither priceless nor sustainable. And it has nothing to do with my understanding of dignity.
Just to be clear, I'm from Germany and over the last two months the COVID narrative changed and I'm not happy with that, because a new autumn and a new winter is coming. So in my understanding of a what a country should do, is trying their best to secure the most vulnerable and provide as much resources as possible to achieve this goal, but not in an absolute term and not without any form of individual responsibility
China actually overtook the United States as the *world's largest recipient* of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2020.
Video: _China overtakes US as top country for foreign investment | DW News_ ruclips.net/video/o-VHewwSz3A/видео.html
Also, China's FDI saw a 14.9% surge in 2021 compared to 2020. In the first 3 months of 2022, China's FDI expanded 37.9%.
China actually overtook the United States as the *world's largest recipient* of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2020.
Also, China's FDI saw a 14.9% surge in 2021 compared to 2020. In the first 3 months of 2022, China's FDI expanded 37.9%.
@@stefand5472 "But what History also shows that a V needs to spread, in order to get endemic"
Why aim for endemic when you can aim for eradication?
"I don't think these measures neither priceless nor sustainable"
Sure, itll costs the citys economy a bit, but lives are more important.
And this strategy is not meant to be "sustainable". Once the virus is eradicated in the city, everything operates as normal again with normal health protocols - just like every other Chinese city that had cases. So sustainable or not is not relevant. Its the most effective solution there is, and its meant to last 2.5 months tops.
Omicron is extremely contagious but extremely mild as well.
But China decided to lockdown instead.
I expect Shanghai to be in lockdown for another month, or two. I expect other northern cities to be in lockdown soon as well.
Mild with the right vax
I do hope it will not be that long.
Zero COVID wouldn't work with omicron. One city contained another city will explode .Natural immunity and early treatment is the way out. China need more people expose to the virus to achieve herd immunity.
None of what you said will happen soon..including the reopening...its not coming..the opposite is happening currently
Shanghai has just released a plan to open up the city again
@@PascalCoppens lets hope it goes according to plan.the reopening i was talking about was the borders which you mentioned last time in your other episode.
@@Vilbakassel you are right. Doesn't seem to be for 2022.
We live with 10 to the 31st power of different viruses. We need to manage this fact of coexistence as well as we can. It is not a war. It is a quest for understanding how to coexist and manage as best as we can while we achieve more understanding.
good video, i agree with it , however i think the west is very focused on ukraine at this moment so china is not headline news at the moment, in a few months it will be forgotten when things open up fully. The issue is omnicron is a very mild form of covid, in uk we just let it happen and got a herd immunity from it, it was risky but it worked.
Also in UK majority of people been vaccinated twice. Priority given to the elderly and carer's. Indeed was a gamble with another surge but low hospital admissions & deaths.
@@Andy-P Perhaps one reason why many elderly in the UK opted for vaccination is because the British government just let the virus spread rampantly throughout the population, so the elderly felt the urgency to vaccinate to protect themselves. In China, the Chinese government had initially done such a good job handling the virus through lockdowns and reopenings, so much such that many elderly people didn't feel the urgency to vaccinate, unfortunately.
@@Shenzhou. The UK Government directed the elderly and carer's get done first and arranged it. They could opt out which I imagine some did. A couple of my friends who are not elderly decided not to get vaccinated. One ended up getting it but not fatal or long lasting. The lockdowns in UK are not as severe (or comprehensive?) as in China.
@@Andy-P It's possible that some elderly opted out in UK. But because the UK government just let the virus spread, many elderly are concerned about the rising cases and deaths at that time, and this provided an impetus for them to get vaccinated. Whereas in China, initially the Chinese government controlled the spread, and brought the number of cases and deaths down, so many elderly feel safe and this unfortunately led to some elderly deciding today postpone their vaccination.
In short, it's a case of the UK government doing a bad job of prevention, so the elderly took protection into their own hands. Whereas in China, the government did such a good job at prevention, that some elderly did not feel the need for protection.
The political system is too stiff and slow in responding. However slow, eventually the right response is going to arrive. Because there is no way to stop the virus. Will be quite some damage economic and political wise.
Do you think it will be more damaging economically or politically for China?
@@PascalCoppens Obviously in the short term economically and long term both.
To be honest I have not been to China for quite a few years so don't really know what's happening on the ground. Only my relatives in Shanghai seem not feeling that bad. Personally I wouldn't want to be in that kind of lockdowns and I can totally understand how the westerners feel. Just a bit curious whoever are there should have seen this coming quite a while ago.
One thing I have recently learned is that apart from the war vs virus, at the same time there are another 2 wars on going. The physical, hot war in Ukraine and another hidden war waged in information realm against Russia and China. Due to this I have to recalibrate my understading about free speech and democracy in the west. Hence I have to put a lot of doubt on the reports from the western media, too.
All said, I think the effects of lockdowns are nothing compared to what have been, and will be caused by the war in Ukraine and potentially later around Taiwan.
If you think the Chinese political system is “stiff” then the western political system is as hard as steel. The US did nothing when covid started. Every other country has lost to convid and it’s just China that’s standing.