We're All Wrong About JJ McCarthy's Draft Stock
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- Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024
- Drafting NFL quarterbacks is a crapshoot with billions of dollars on the line every year. One in three first-round QBs worked out from 2000-2020.
No matter how much money, time, and analytics NFL teams have, drafting quarterbacks is an uncertain game.
But I can say this with certainty… You are wrong about Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy. I’m wrong about JJ. We’re all going to be wrong about JJ, and here's why.
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JJ will be the best QB in this class...would love to have him sit behind Goff in Detroit for a couple seasons...unfortunately he'll be long gone by then.
He’s a Bear
@@rbibbe34 Whad'ya get when you mate a Wolverine with a Bear?
Kid can layer the ball and really athletic I'm not wrong on him !
I think he will be great of he has a year or two to wet his feet in the league. If he is made to be the hero from day 1, he may burn out, but I definitely think he has the highest ceiling
Not mentioned, JJ usually sat by halftime and let backups get reps because the game was out of reach. He didn't log a single minute in any 4th quarter until game 10.
Knocking his stats is like knocking a basketball player for only averaging 25 pts, even though he only plays 3 qtrs due to blowouts and that's okay with him because the teams focus is on a championship.
Hell, bro, Jets take them with the 10th pic when they finally send a Zack Wilson to Shanghai
2023 QB by first half passing attempts (minus screens) JJ McCarthy 199 Drake Maye 194 Jayden Daniels 184 Caleb Williams 167. 2023 QB % of pass attempts (minus screens) against top 25 defenses McCarthy 49.7% Williams 35.4% Maye 17.9% Daniels 16.2%. McCarthy didn't play in 7 4th quarters this season.
He should go to LA or MN to sit behind Kirk or Stafford
Best case scenario for him right here
@@stephensybert3237 he would benefit from a a McVay offense. Dude would be like JLove in GB learning from a pro
You mean atlanta?
Michigan fan here. I think JJ has a ton of upside, when you watch him play and look at his film he’s obviously very talented. I don’t think he’s a guy that should start in the nfl from day one. Definitely needs a few years to develop and if he goes to the wrong team and gets thrown in immediately it will be a problem. However, if he goes to a team with an established veteran that he can sit behind for a couple years he’s probably going to have a solid career in this league. I think he will compete well at the combine and interview himself into an early pick. How early on though, I have no idea.
I think JJ might not be quite as ready as a couple others in this class, but I truly believe in 2-3 years he will be the BEST from this class
Only Time will tell for J.J.
He's definitely got an upside!
Huge fan of your content max, definitely subscribed. The reason jj is so polarizing isn’t because of what people think he was asked to do. It was the dominance of the team throughout the year. He didn’t play a 4th until week 8 or so. And yes….those tough games he didn’t sling it around the park. But look at the highlights of the game. A lot of our 3rd or 4th down completions are through jj making a play. We were a top team on 3rd down for a reason. Yes we have great backs but our running game took a step back from the previous year. Also the big games mentioned…Penn state (chop Robinson who just ran a 4.48, Adisa 4.74, and Curtis a 4.58) they were in the backfield coming free off the edge. So we ran it 30 consecutive times. Not to mention we wanted to prove a point. If you know then you know. Washington and bama he wasn’t needed to take over even though his play in the 4th/ot was great against bama when needed. And he made huge plays against state. Just watch the film with context is all I ask. It’s the best football conference in college.
I think McCarthy should be number one
He’s going 1 overall
JJ knows how to win in the NFC North environment. We've seen Chicago draft warm weather QBs for 3 decades. None of them played as well as Jim Miller. I get it's the Under Armour era. Patrick Mahomes can thrive in Western New York in 0 Degre weather. But as a coach that's had games in the Midwest. I can tell you that a windy AF cold day sometimes defeats a top tier player's mindset. Especially if they're on a downtrend losing streak. He has the mental makeup to beat the Alabama defense.
Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins got that training in the tundra that made them right for the right cities to play in. Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith... the list continues forever of QBs that just didn't catch on very well in their environments - especially games in 30 below weather with high winds.
Jim Harbaugh routinely kept the game out of JJ's hands. That speaks volumes.
Seems like you didn’t watch much Michigan football
It just doesn't speak to your implied point. J.J. was so good, and so much better than any of the other Michigan QBs that Harbaugh protected him against injury by not calling plays for him. Lots of QBs get injured passing in the pocket or scrambling to avoid sacks. Their ribs get busted. They hit a throwing hand on a helmet. A knee or an ankle gets twisted. The only way Michigan does not win the Natty was if J.J. was out with injuries during the playoffs. Remember, poor FSU got ejected from even being in the playoffs once their QB went down.
Great take on JJ.
Jj is 220 now lbs he showed well at the combine. He will be a top 15 pick
It's true that a lot of QBs from great teams never made it in the NFL due to lack of innate talent. But it is lazy in the extreme to paint McCarthy with that same brush. Anyone who watched his highlight tape must at least concede he has immense natural talent as both a thrower and a runner. There is absolutely no logic behind the assertion that "he played on a great team and therefore doesn't have the talent to play in the NFL."
Yep sure is. I would take him if I am the Pats
JJ to the Falcons would be super neat.
JJ feels like a guy who would GREATLY benefit by sitting a couple years behind a trusted veteran. As such, he feels like a 3rd rounder to me. But I know he won't be available there, which makes his selection really tricky.
I'm a Bear fan that lives in Michigan - and an MSU Spartan fan. Still, I followed Michigan close this year since my wife was a schoolmate of Roman Wilson's mom and we were rooting for him. My dream is that my Bears keep Justin Fields, trade the #1 pick and somehow land McCarthy and Harrison Jr. from OSU. The cherry on top would be land Roman Wilson on day 2. McCarthy can have a year learning the pro game and that'll give the Bears a full year to see if JF is the guy... and a helluva QB waiting in the wings. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? Hell no, but one can dream.
I think JJ is a baller and a winner , and he will grow into a great qb in the pros. But we’ll see. QBs are so hard to get right; look at how many number 1 qb picks end up duds
Best case scenario, JJ reminds me a lot of a taller Brock Purdy or Russell Wilson. Put him on a God-tier team and he can get you over the finish line with perfect efforts from everyone around him. But anything less than that and he'll cost you when faced with a top defense or one that can take away the run. One caveat - I didn't see the velocity or release speed you did. If he didn't take a huge windup the ball was going to take forever to get there. To accommodate that it seemed like Michigan had scheme guys open right off the bat or plan for JJ to run around in circles and throw a lot of low-risk deep shots. The X factor is going to be if a) he keeps the chip on his shoulder and works to improve his release speed and accuracy and starts throwing guys open, rather than reacting to what was drawn up or has become available by virtue of the play dragging on and b) if he can stay healthy when being chased by NFL defenders who know he has to pass.
delusional - he's rated 2 by several teams - well ahead of Maye who is horrible under pressure.
I don't get the love for Maye either; seems like he just threw a ton of fades and looks like he's right out of central casting. The purpose of an NFL quarterback is still to throw the ball, though, so I have Penix as the secret 2nd best in the class, not McCarthy. I guess time will tell.
I wouldn’t hate him to Atlanta at 8 (I’d love to trade down but idk if he gets past 11). But only as a sit and learn guy behind a Kirk, Russ, Darnold, Brissett, or Minshew type.
I see him as sitting behind for a season, and then cooking.
Why is the rest of the team being very good considered a criticism of McCarthy? Since when is it impossible to have a great QB and other players too? 27-1 in college and the one game they lost the offense scored 45 points. The guy is a winning machine.
Mark Sanchez, Ken Dorsey, John David Booty, Troy Smith, JT Barrett, AJ McCarron, Jake Fromm, Mac Jones and about a hundred others would like a word with you.
@@lordjimbo2 Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, Joe Namath, Drew Brees, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagavailoa, Ken Stabler, Matt Stafford and Jalen Hurts can answer any questions they have for me.
@@paulday5722 Wow, not going to pull out George Blanda or Alexander the Great?! Okay, if you cherry-pick guys from the entire history of the sport and not, say, since the invention of the West Coast offense, or the spread, or the forward pass, yes, there were some guys who led loaded teams who panned out in the pros. Manning's, Tua's, Namath's, Montana's ND squad in 1977 and Burrow's teams were legit. Maybe Stafford's as well, but outside of AJ Green they had no one on offense and he overlapped with some defensive pro-bowlers. As for Brady and Brees, whoa, beg to differ. Brady played with one Hall of Famer (Hutchinson), a guy who made one Pro Bowl (Ian Gold, on defense) and a couple of linemen who had reasonable careers (Jansen, Backus). No one else did anything. Brees was even worse, with Matt Light as his tackle and Roosevelt Colvin (on defense) his freshman year. I don't think anyone else from those teams played more than a year in the pros. More importantly, all those guys (at least since the Clinton administration) played in seriously pass-heavy offenses except Hurts, who, it should be noted, regressed violently to the mean this year in the pros. They also weren't the beneficiaries of industrial-scale sign-stealing like JJ was.
Seriously, the better indicator is that in the 45 seasons since Montana's win in 1977, unless my numbers are wrong, only 8 QBs who won national championships have even gone on to make a Pro Bowl - Chris Chandler, Cam, DeShaun Watson, Brian Griese, Joe Burrow, Bernie Kosar, Tua and Trevor Lawrence. Only five have won a playoff game, three have started a Super Bowl (9, 6, and 4 if you count Hurts, but he wouldn't have a title without Tua), and none have won. Yes, things have gotten better recently, but again - Tua, Trevor, Watson and Burrow threw for significantly more yards (in some cases almost four thousand more) than JJ despite playing the same amount of seasons or fewer, and Cam Newton was the size of a house. Like I said in another part of this thread, if you can surround JJ with an impossible amount of talent and incredible coaching, yeah, he'll get you there. If you put him as the fundamental building block though? I just don't see it.
Still, only time will tell.
I have 1 of your rookie cards would you sign it for me??
Looks like he has a good agent who is well connected... because Ive seen JJ and he's nothing special.