These shorter format videos are great. I try to watch the longer streams, but due to time constraints they're often on 2x speed or in the background and I'll realize "Oh hey I wanted to listen to that" and need to rewind to catch the bit I wanted to know about. I'll continue watching both, but these more condensed versions are great for understanding key aspects of the war.
The timestamps set by users were great for that in the long streams. But we got lazy eventually :-) My guess is that they'll reappear once movement on the front is on again.
War is a cruel thing that requires cruel decisions. Sending men into an extremely dangerous situation they likely won't survive is a cruel decision, but if it comes with greatly weakening the enemy, depleting their best men, and destroying much equipment that could be used elsewhere, a cruel choice becomes the best choice.
Maglier's War Birds also has an accompanying independent group that often does cleanup work on War Bird's hits!!! Sounds like a good way for them to learn from the best!!! 😍
As a graduate of the Barcalounger School of Military Matters, IMHO the maintenance of the hold on Krynky is of utmost importance. Crossing a river is a difficult business and if this toe hold can be maintained, it keeps the Russians from build defenses right at he shoreline.
Depends on the value of maintaining a small concentrated foothold, compared to the attrition of troops and equipment. If you are defending a increasingly difficult route while maintaining a defensive posture in a heavily observed position, you are going to have difficulty containing losses to a small ratio. As every military objective, the cost must be less than the gain.
I personally think it's worth it. The attrition rate is very favourable for Ukraine due to the range advantage on the right bank. Not to say that Ukraine isn't taken heavy losses there. Russia does not want another Kherson/kharkiv style breakthrough, regardless of how effective in the long term that would actually be if Ukraine did breakthrough (I personally think Ukraine will suffer similar supply chain issues like Russia did if they do establish pontoon bridges and a wide area of control on the other side of the river) so Russia is more than happy to send wave after wave of their equipment to plug that particular hole. I highly doubt Ukraine will ever actually establish enough control on the left bank to build pontoon bridges and send across heavy equipment. But as of right now the Russian troops are more than happy to literally fight an uphill battle to hold that particular spot. What I want to know is, will Russia use this time to establish a large defence network south of Kherson, similar in complexity, but not in size, to the surovikin line. Surely the Russians will have to catch on they need to plug this hole with more than just men and vehicles.
They do not need to use pontoon bridges or the river ferries because they do not need heavy artillery on the east bank Then entire region could come under effective control of the locals using nothing more than modified children's toys The locals have a lot of vehicles that can swim short distances with a couple of tons of children's toys & accessories to go with them on board These can be driven a ways down the roads once the river is crossed then moved off the road, far enough that the unwelcome tourist can not see them from the road , but the locals using the modified children's toys can see the road and effectively gain control over the roads . Then a meet & greet group of modified children's toys could meet the unwelcome tourists, encourage them to get out of their vehicles with tears in their eyes then book passage for all of them through the Big Black Plastic Bag Transport Company leaving their vehicles behind intact for the locals to do with as they please . So why bring heavy vehicles across the river when there are plenty on the other side to go around ? And this will probably confuse the unwanted tourist very much so even more may depart via the Big Black Plastic Bag Transport Company
I think that it's a hard but good way to get high attrition of ruSSians there. The level of the artillery & drone units there is amazing. Thanks Andrew for that video !
You saw a video? Where? Ukraine sends soldiers in boats across the river and Russia destroys them and those who survive have to have to swim in subzero water and possibly die of hypothermia. Ukrainians have been refusing to do crossings and that is in the western media. You need to watch something other than some guy's RUclips videos. 🤔🤔
The US placed infantry as 'bait' in Nam - but they could support them with everything they need from the air (supplies, fire support etc). PLATOON depicts this tactic in the final part. Yes, drones changed a lot - but they don't replace MEDEVAC and CAS in such a situation. An fpv-strike isn't the same like napalm and snakeye strikes... There is at best a batalion in Krinky (are there other beachheads left?), but Ukraine seems to commit /rotate all four of its Marine brigades along this front. Seasoned brigades, that could be a big help defending the other sectors Perpetua mentions. Also Ukraine is concentrating EW and drone forces that are dearly needed where the Russians are attacking in force - being just as easy targets there as around Krinky. But where wounded Ukrainians have a better chance of survival. Risking ukrainian lives to destroy russian equipment - what is more scarce of the two? I can't help but feel this is an op to suggest at least some initiative in Ukrainian hands at one part of the front. It was started when the main offensive thethered out in Robotyne - and raised new hopes that were partially disappointed (again). At best they force Russia to deploy better troops to contain the Marines that could enforce other offensives - but does Ukraine really need to commit all 4 Marine brigades for that? How would we think about it, if Russia put infantry on the right bank and kept pummeling the area around them with their support weapons and drones?
I respect your intellectual honesty brother. I think many of these questions will only be answered by history. Any battle in any hamlet in Ukraine could be one day be "where the tide turned, where it all changed." This is in many ways a future war with the technological leaps that drone warfare has demonstrated, and the years of footage that have been produced to date is unlike anything we've ever seen before. Warfare on gopro and smartphone yet war never changes. When the war crimes tribunals start, the prosecution should use your map as reference.
Krynki made sense to tie up Russian reserves during the counteroffensive. But since Ukraine is not actively expanding the bridgehead anymore, it doesn’t seem worth it
Russia wants to reclaim this land; this fixes the troops in one area. With the high attrition rate, Russia has to pull troops from other battlefields.. Ukraine has yet to say what their goal is. The nearest target is a road that connects to Crimea.
The VC/NVA built bridges just under the water of numerous rivers. I remember the first one we saw in the A Shau. Capable of handling heavy logistics. It's a very good idea to stay put and let the Russians sweat.
Ukraine need to adapt forget pontoon bridges they can be seen then destroyed they need to submerge concrete pipes in the rivers with approx 2 feet water depth above pipes so as not being seen by satellite etc perfect for heavy vehicles to cross or think if other similar ideas
As long as the casualties ratio is in Ukrainian favor, it is worth it. For wounded evacuation, if they can go there, they can go back from there. The situation will change when the Ukrainian has more shells and more fighter jets. Krynky could be a gateway to Crimea.
Brandon Mitchell have been evacuating combat losses and filmed it. It is only done by night, they are received with boats in a short time frame. Aeria is vacated and boats and ambulance meets up at a set time for transfer of patients and bodies. Magazine De Welt have an idea that ukraine will have a offensive Kherson-Krim as soon as Norwegian F16 is delivered together with Dutch F16.
Anyone studying this war strategy would know the Ukrainians will be using Krinky as the starting point for their retaking of Crimea offensive. Setting up Krinky as an offensive stronghold is genius work as the Russians would never expect this. Very clever.
Aren't there even more advantages of Ukrainian presence in Krinky rather than merely distracting Russian forces? Such as interrupting Russian supply lines along the mentioned highway or as a base for hit and run incursions into the permanent Russian positions around or keeping artillery at distance from the inhabited areas on the right banks of the river and thus preventing artillery shelling of the population?
When first introduced the modified children's toys were a novelty item excluding the ones used for high altitude observations Since then it has become apparent that the modified children's toys are a stand alone success and should be used as such they should be placed under the command of Colonel General Mykola Oleschuk for very obvious reasons and formed into a proper airforce with squadrons & wings of different types of modified children's toys to do specific tasks and not just wasted as pretend artillery. Right now the trees are bare thus no vegetative cover so groups of modified children's toys should be used systematically request the unwelcome tourist leave right now and by preference via the Big Black Plastic Bag Transport Company . This should be done tee line by tree line, trench by trench till there are no unwelcome tourists for 10km to 20 km from the local front lines . And if done in groups from opposite directions then these request would only take a few short minutes for each line. The disappointing thing is it could have been done a full year ago but it needs to happen right now and if done right should be able to be accomplished in 3 days of a SMO , for some irony. Once the locals gain full control over all of the open fields for 10 to 20 km then they can extract the litter that the unwelcome tourists left behind . The tourists who set up residence in the small houses, villages , towns or even cities can be left there, unable to go outside and play till they get bored and walk home leaving their vehicles behind or else the locals will book them passage with the afore mentioned Big Black Plastic Bag Transport Company . All this can be done with nothing more than modified children's toys if there are enough toys & children to play with them To get enough toys to fill the toy box Ukraine might like to ask some of their friends , say 30 to 60 of them, to each make a single specific type of toy to the numbers of say 2 per day. Then they can show their gratitude the locals might like to set up some play groups where all of the children from all of the friends can come together and practice playing with their toys in a way that does not cause them to bump into each other & get broken . For the naughty children who smash their toys into things the first time they are used then their toys can continue to be bought from China where everything is single us only throw away
To expand the previous if you are reading from the top down as the first post which was uploaded 10 minutes before this must be very offensive because it was removed . Once the tourists are all 20 km or more from the river bank then a bridge of some sort could be used to span the river but in reality, it would just be a big and very obvious target . The children's toys could be used to make all of the unwanted fishermen leave the river bank for it's entire length and once that happens there are hundreds of places where the plethora of vehicles that the free people have donated to Ukraine which are capable of swimming short distances could safely arrive on the west bank. While they can only carry a couple of tons, that is a lot of childrens toys, batteries, solar battery chargers and things that burn hot, go bang big time, go bang into 100's of little pieces, make people cry etc etc etc that can be put onto the children's toys .Similarly there are lots of places on the east bank where thy could enter the river from as well, so while these vehicles do move very slow so again become targets dispersion is the best way to get them over the river then a reasonable distance from the bank very quickly so their cargo can be unloaded . Every one is panicking about getting tanks & the like across the river, I see little to no need for them as many of the vehicles that can swim have reasonable defensive items on board and if there are sufficient children's toys overflying the ground with the right type of accessories fitted nothing is needed other than some long range support from the east bank . Furthermore if Colonel General Mykola Oleschuk can train the specialist groups who meet & greet convoys of the unwelcome tourist to vacate while leaving their vehicles intact then the locals could put the said same vehicles to very good use convincing more unwanted tourists to leave the country . It is just a matter of developing the right skill sets in the right people and having them on hand in sufficient numbers to accomplish the desired tasks . And on that subject Ford could manage to pump out 1 Liberator every hour and a children's tay is far less complicated . So if Ukraine was to ask 30 to 60 their friends to make 1-2 children's toys of a specific type every day, it should not be a big job for them to do so if 30 friends were to supply 45 ( 1.5/day ) toys a month then that is a whopping 1350 to 2700 toys to fill the toy chest up with . These should all of course be of the long life sturdy type as China can produce all of the flimsy ones for children who smash their toys into things the first time they play with them . Now to promote harmony they could set up play groups a long way away so the children of the friendly countries could learn to play the locals in a manner that avoids breaking the toys so it becomes mutually beneficial as the local children have more experience at playing with these toys than the friendly neighbours
This is classic Tactical v Strategic. Tactically on the ground this is a Nightmare for Ukraine . Strategic Russia can not let them form a Big beachhead so are expending a lot to stop it.
Andrew, your analysis is well-reasoned, but is unidimensional. An equally important dimension is the flow of time. Envision Kinky as a metaphorical hour glass. Grains of sand in its top represent soldiers that gained skills for survival in the crucible of combat. The grains in the bottom represent soldiers that have gained death in the crucible of combat. Soldiers that survive pass their skills onto others through training. Solders that don't are silenced by death. The flow sand through the the hour glass significantly advantages Ukraine's ground forces in Krinky and is replicated along the entire battle front. Dead Russian tell no tales.
By not making a breakthrough, Ukraine troops are quite exposed in Krynky. We don't know the numbers, but since the Ukraine Army HQ is not removing their troops, the losses of infantry vs Russian equipment and troops must be worth it (I know, that's a nasty calculation that nobody should be forced to do in their lifetimes). If they can move/rotate troops in this area, I suppose that they can evacuate injured troops as well. It would be nice to have attack helicopters and jet aircraft supporting Krynky and make possible the transport of heavy equipment like Bradleys and Leopards in order to make a hole in Russian positions and head to Crimea. I suspect that there are frantic troops and contractors building defense bunkers, minefields and trenches 10-15 km behind the contact line at the moment...
it's pretty certain that Krynky is alleviating some pressure from the southern front, but it needs to be scaled up in order to help offset the pressure on Avdiivka and other hotspots. They need to enlarge the bridgehead in order to attract larger numbers of Russians into the honeypot.
La ofensiva de los rusos me recuerda a la batalla del Bulge en cuanto a sus propósitos,pero con un ejército muy inferior en capacidades,si siguen así van a terminar mal
You are making the same mistake as the Ukraine military is currently making. Drones are AIRCRAFT and should be considered as an airforce not as a novelty item or childrens toys . What is very disappointing is that the Ukraine has not put the modified children's toys under the command of Colonel General Mykola Oleschuk so he can work out how to deploy them as a stand alone force because if that was to happen then Ukraine could go on a massive offensive . These modified chidren's toys need to be organized into groups according to their type and much more use of the reusable re-armable larger units that can patrol & engage multiple targets These modified children's toys right now are at the same state as aircraft were at the beginning of WW II and should be deployed using the same method of organization & engagements . Krinky should be the training ground for this and once Colonel General Mykola Oleschuk has worked out how best to deploy this new weapon and has accumulated sufficient pilots & planes should use them as the primary vector of attack to remove the unwanted tourist from Ukrainian soil , hopefully via the Big Black Plastic Bag transport company . The bulk of the territory is heavily mined open fields so why go through them just because it is NATO doctrine when you can go over them without suffering a single casualty . Right now there is no vegetative cover so it should be less difficult to clean out all of the trenches & tree lines to the point that Ukraine has full control over them. No need to attack buildings, villages, towns or cities because doing this just leads to the total destruction of them which is the last thing Ukraine wants. When this is done it is just a waiting game till the encircled unwanted tourist run out of supplies & surrender or make an attempt to flee when they come under attack from the right kind of modified children's toy which as you have already mentioned could be controlled from 100 + km away if there is a method of getting the signals to the modified children's toys . Even better the pilots can be rotated after every sortie and coverage can be 24/7 without anyone becoming sleep deprived . Krinky has proven just how effective having full fire control over the open ground is . The cheap off the shelf toys have a range up to 5 km , the better ones 10km and the very expensive 20 km. The bulk of the gear the unwanted tourist have brought with them has a range of 10 km or less so by using the right toys the locals can clear out the tourists up to 20 km towards the border then move their own positions 10 km further towards the border so always be as safe as you can be in a country over run with unwanted tourists . Strange descriptors used because over 1000 of my comments have been pulled from YT from non native English speakers searching for the use of particular words then using thousands of web bots to make complaints . For you Andrew, I know this change in tactics would be a nightmare because you would have next to no idea where to draw the lines on the maps, but it is not about lines on a map it is about democracy countering authoritarianism and saving as many lives of the democratically ruled as possible while doing the least amount of structural damage to the country side .
"is it worth trading Ukraine's infrantry to Russia's equipment?" Russias equipment losses are far more visible than Ukraine's human losses. Therefore it's hard to judge. Do you think ukraine shouldve been much more agressive expanding the bridgehead immediately while russia had weaker defences in the area?
I spoke to a marine here a few months ago who told me ukraine had 14 days to expand the bridgehead or it would be lost. And in that time ukraine didn’t capture anything. He’s not happy about it tbh.
@@andrewperpetua Thanks for the reply. I understand it would be very risky for Ukraine attempting to bring heavy equipment across the river, but they could've expanded the bridgehead along the river under artillery protection from other side. Do you agree?
This was presented to Russia as a dilemma: Either allow Ukraine to secure a foothold, or bring down a ton of troops to kick them out. In hindsight, I wonder if Ukraine was preferring Russia take the latter option. In any case, that's obviously the option Russia picked, and it kind of obviates the former option of conducting a full crossing. From what I could see there were a number of steps Ukraine needed to do, including push back artillery, push back navy, push back helicopters, achieve air drone dominance, and get enough air defense in place to make it untenable for larger aircraft. All these things have happened, any one of which seemed impossible at the outset, so that's quite an achievement. But importantly, they needed to have boots on the ground to take and hold tactically critical choke points, crossroads, and forested elevations, and they needed to get F16's active in the skies and machinery active on the ground yet I do not see evidence of this having happened. I figured winter was their best chance to do that. I'm guessing maybe once the Ukrainians saw they successfully baited Russia into investing so much force here, they pulled up stakes and reconfigured into the turkey shooting gallery that Mr. Perpetua describes. But Russia can't exactly stop at this point; as soon as they do Ukraine can bring forces over again and then fortify it for real. And if Russia allows Ukraine to demonstrate it can still take ground then it emboldens their Western allies to increase support. But I don't know how long Russia can keep this up; transporting fighting vehicles to Krynky is a long, long path.
well its sucking up russian attention and resources so yes it is worth it. Ukraine is tying up thousands of russian soldiers and equipment with a few hundred marines. They get their troops needed experience, learn what is needed to maintain a crossing logistically, get the logistics people desperately needed training and organizational experience, and are gutting russian forces in the area. All while risking very little in terms of men and resources.
@@tito2525, yes, they are stupid, and more accurately, this is demonstration of the kind of stupid that arises from the entrenched thinking of only having one party line that you adhere to disregarding everything else. For Russia it is only tell those in charge good things, and when things are not working don't tell those in charge.
Speculating about the wounded of Ukraine is silly . The command knows what they are doing and they are fighting for their nation to stop it from being annihilated .
Most of the commenters here, should click their heels together 3 times and tell themselves what they want to hear. Just kidding maybe they should just cope more.
ukraine lost several thousand lives there, shipping in at least 100 a day that never returned, there are in the rear strikes everywhere not just in krinki, and the russians do it to. you seem to ignore the heavy fab bombardment of 70 a day on to the west bank, they do not evacuate many ppl as they would have to carry them all the way instead of a nearby vehicle. the ukranians have always been fully contained and the russians simply never flushed them out due to the attrition inflicted on the ukranians, which was thre marine units that were pretty much the last of the professional soldiers. just getting wet from splatter during the crossing wouldve caused attrition on ukranians. you cant make a fire nothing. this is not for ukranians, this is aimed to be against russia and ukranians pay the price of life
@@Vulcano7965 ukraine been losing about 100 men daily for three months vs 40 apcs disabled. it doesnt looks like they are going anywhere on the map , thats 100% contained. russians have positions that aree geolocated around the place and they cant stick their heads up with out getting shelled, sensless attacks? as if sending 100 men and women accross a wide river in to some canals running trough a swamp isnt the senseless bit here. Have you see a single vid of evacuation? i havent as the russians have full surveillance of the tiny area 24/7 and pretty much everything that comes in gets targeted and sticking on a landing point waiting to be evaced is 100% guaranteed death. further more these soldiers there would tell stories which would be bad for moral. which is exactly why the reform units and send them in to the hotspot over and over again till no one is left to tell the tail trough out the conflict. you simply fail to understand that whole units get killed as this isnt the 1900s anymore. i think you missed the troop location movement reports which indicates that ukranie keeps losing whole brigades worth of people. which iss why they now draft women. last but not least there have been ukranian uploads from krinki stating that no one returns to the west bank. its impressive how political bias made you so blind you cant deduct simple conclusions out of hopeless situations such as the countless of lancet strikes or the bombarding of west bank troop concentrations. 70 strikes daily with precision guided 500 kilo worth of explosives. and thats just on the supply point for the krinki firebag. frankly the ukranian strategic insight is krank. For some reason they keep attacking traps, in low grounds and across rivers. there is a reason why the russians fell back from kershon despite inflicting 2k casualties on the advancing ukranian forces daily. its hard to supply a population troops and amunition accross a river. its laughable to think that ukraine has a shot running in there with their speed boats when its far below freezing
@@febeomnibeepboop6367 So why are the russians still attacking and loosing in armored formations when they supposedly have the area under 100% surveillance and can shell them safely from afar? You still haven't answered that.
A bunch of bunches can be irksome, but 'plethora' or 'superabundance' might sound unduly sesquipedalian. To be fair to Mr Perpetua he gets several uses of 'many', ' a lot', a 'substantial' , and a 'fifty to a hundred' and 'significant', 'tremendous' and 'an enormous amount' into the mix. So i don't think he is over-bunching just yet. :)
It’s so nice to have a news source willing to say “I don’t know” and explain the limits of what they can tell us. Thank you Andrew
These shorter format videos are great. I try to watch the longer streams, but due to time constraints they're often on 2x speed or in the background and I'll realize "Oh hey I wanted to listen to that" and need to rewind to catch the bit I wanted to know about. I'll continue watching both, but these more condensed versions are great for understanding key aspects of the war.
The timestamps set by users were great for that in the long streams. But we got lazy eventually :-)
My guess is that they'll reappear once movement on the front is on again.
Thanks for your insights. War is hell.
War is a cruel thing that requires cruel decisions. Sending men into an extremely dangerous situation they likely won't survive is a cruel decision, but if it comes with greatly weakening the enemy, depleting their best men, and destroying much equipment that could be used elsewhere, a cruel choice becomes the best choice.
Trolley Dilemma
Yup absolutely correct!
It has been quite the investment, I don’t think they should leave it unused.
I think it‘s good you speak about this specific town.
Just this one.
Maglier's War Birds also has an accompanying independent group that often does cleanup work on War Bird's hits!!!
Sounds like a good way for them to learn from the best!!! 😍
Magyar was also involved in creating, making and distributing evacuation carts.
Thanks Andrew and great update and passion for Ukraine.
As a graduate of the Barcalounger School of Military Matters, IMHO the maintenance of the hold on Krynky is of utmost importance. Crossing a river is a difficult business and if this toe hold can be maintained, it keeps the Russians from build defenses right at he shoreline.
Depends on the value of maintaining a small concentrated foothold, compared to the attrition of troops and equipment.
If you are defending a increasingly difficult route while maintaining a defensive posture in a heavily observed position, you are going to have difficulty containing losses to a small ratio.
As every military objective, the cost must be less than the gain.
I personally think it's worth it. The attrition rate is very favourable for Ukraine due to the range advantage on the right bank. Not to say that Ukraine isn't taken heavy losses there.
Russia does not want another Kherson/kharkiv style breakthrough, regardless of how effective in the long term that would actually be if Ukraine did breakthrough (I personally think Ukraine will suffer similar supply chain issues like Russia did if they do establish pontoon bridges and a wide area of control on the other side of the river) so Russia is more than happy to send wave after wave of their equipment to plug that particular hole.
I highly doubt Ukraine will ever actually establish enough control on the left bank to build pontoon bridges and send across heavy equipment. But as of right now the Russian troops are more than happy to literally fight an uphill battle to hold that particular spot.
What I want to know is, will Russia use this time to establish a large defence network south of Kherson, similar in complexity, but not in size, to the surovikin line. Surely the Russians will have to catch on they need to plug this hole with more than just men and vehicles.
They do not need to use pontoon bridges or the river ferries because they do not need heavy artillery on the east bank
Then entire region could come under effective control of the locals using nothing more than modified children's toys
The locals have a lot of vehicles that can swim short distances with a couple of tons of children's toys & accessories to go with them on board
These can be driven a ways down the roads once the river is crossed then moved off the road, far enough that the unwelcome tourist can not see them from the road , but the locals using the modified children's toys can see the road and effectively gain control over the roads .
Then a meet & greet group of modified children's toys could meet the unwelcome tourists, encourage them to get out of their vehicles with tears in their eyes then book passage for all of them through the Big Black Plastic Bag Transport Company leaving their vehicles behind intact for the locals to do with as they please .
So why bring heavy vehicles across the river when there are plenty on the other side to go around ?
And this will probably confuse the unwanted tourist very much so even more may depart via the Big Black Plastic Bag Transport Company
Im sorry they just retreated and general was accused of high casualities
@ChobeVelyasha that does not counter a single point I made…..
I think that it's a hard but good way to get high attrition of ruSSians there. The level of the artillery & drone units there is amazing. Thanks Andrew for that video !
A really interesting , calm analysis which sheds a lot of light on Krynky and its significance. Thankyou.
I saw an attack today on Krynky to that didn’t go well for the Russians.Yes I think what Ukraine is doing is work thanks Andrew so informative
You saw a video? Where? Ukraine sends soldiers in boats across the river and Russia destroys them and those who survive have to have to swim in subzero water and possibly die of hypothermia. Ukrainians have been refusing to do crossings and that is in the western media. You need to watch something other than some guy's RUclips videos. 🤔🤔
Didn't work after all.
Danke!
Bitte
Thanks for the video. Great job!!
The US placed infantry as 'bait' in Nam - but they could support them with everything they need from the air (supplies, fire support etc). PLATOON depicts this tactic in the final part.
Yes, drones changed a lot - but they don't replace MEDEVAC and CAS in such a situation. An fpv-strike isn't the same like napalm and snakeye strikes...
There is at best a batalion in Krinky (are there other beachheads left?), but Ukraine seems to commit /rotate all four of its Marine brigades along this front.
Seasoned brigades, that could be a big help defending the other sectors Perpetua mentions. Also Ukraine is concentrating EW and drone forces that are dearly needed where the Russians are attacking in force - being just as easy targets there as around Krinky. But where wounded Ukrainians have a better chance of survival.
Risking ukrainian lives to destroy russian equipment - what is more scarce of the two?
I can't help but feel this is an op to suggest at least some initiative in Ukrainian hands at one part of the front. It was started when the main offensive thethered out in Robotyne - and raised new hopes that were partially disappointed (again).
At best they force Russia to deploy better troops to contain the Marines that could enforce other offensives - but does Ukraine really need to commit all 4 Marine brigades for that?
How would we think about it, if Russia put infantry on the right bank and kept pummeling the area around them with their support weapons and drones?
Three ways into Krinky from land... or a river....and the river is best. Cope.
I respect your intellectual honesty brother. I think many of these questions will only be answered by history. Any battle in any hamlet in Ukraine could be one day be "where the tide turned, where it all changed."
This is in many ways a future war with the technological leaps that drone warfare has demonstrated, and the years of footage that have been produced to date is unlike anything we've ever seen before. Warfare on gopro and smartphone yet war never changes.
When the war crimes tribunals start, the prosecution should use your map as reference.
definatly worth it,,, 3 month delay ? on each of the equipment needs,, good job
Thanks, these are good.
Glad you think so!
Fast river boat evac's on the Dnipro would go down stream till they can hit the river bank below Kherson city!!! Simples! Bumpy but fastest way!!! ;p
Krynki made sense to tie up Russian reserves during the counteroffensive. But since Ukraine is not actively expanding the bridgehead anymore, it doesn’t seem worth it
Russia wants to reclaim this land; this fixes the troops in one area. With the high attrition rate, Russia has to pull troops from other battlefields.. Ukraine has yet to say what their goal is. The nearest target is a road that connects to Crimea.
The VC/NVA built bridges just under the water of numerous rivers. I remember the first one we saw in the A Shau. Capable of handling heavy logistics. It's a very good idea to stay put and let the Russians sweat.
Ukraine need to adapt forget pontoon bridges they can be seen then destroyed they need to submerge concrete pipes in the rivers with approx 2 feet water depth above pipes so as not being seen by satellite etc perfect for heavy vehicles to cross or think if other similar ideas
From what l understand, they also use big drones to resupply and wounded retrieval
There's a clear path to Crimea from there. Someone in Moscow must see that.
Do you have any info on what went down at the other crossings (I think it was Poima and Pischane)?
I like your short videos. Thanks for your work. 🇺🇦 🇩🇪
Glad you like them!
As long as the casualties ratio is in Ukrainian favor, it is worth it.
For wounded evacuation, if they can go there, they can go back from there.
The situation will change when the Ukrainian has more shells and more fighter jets.
Krynky could be a gateway to Crimea.
Brandon Mitchell have been evacuating combat losses and filmed it. It is only done by night, they are received with boats in a short time frame. Aeria is vacated and boats and ambulance meets up at a set time for transfer of patients and bodies. Magazine De Welt have an idea that ukraine will have a offensive Kherson-Krim as soon as Norwegian F16 is delivered together with Dutch F16.
Liking these shorter videos
Anyone studying this war strategy would know the Ukrainians will be using Krinky as the starting point for their retaking of Crimea offensive. Setting up Krinky as an offensive stronghold is genius work as the Russians would never expect this. Very clever.
Aren't there even more advantages of Ukrainian presence in Krinky rather than merely distracting Russian forces? Such as interrupting Russian supply lines along the mentioned highway or as a base for hit and run incursions into the permanent Russian positions around or keeping artillery at distance from the inhabited areas on the right banks of the river and thus preventing artillery shelling of the population?
All decisions are very hard😢
Key fact. Ukraine stays when they have the option to leave. That is testimony that Krynky pays off for Ukraine. No need to wait for further analysis.
Totally worth it
When first introduced the modified children's toys were a novelty item excluding the ones used for high altitude observations
Since then it has become apparent that the modified children's toys are a stand alone success and should be used as such
they should be placed under the command of Colonel General Mykola Oleschuk for very obvious reasons and formed into a proper airforce with squadrons & wings of different types of modified children's toys to do specific tasks and not just wasted as pretend artillery.
Right now the trees are bare thus no vegetative cover so groups of modified children's toys should be used systematically request the unwelcome tourist leave right now and by preference via the Big Black Plastic Bag Transport Company . This should be done tee line by tree line, trench by trench till there are no unwelcome tourists for 10km to 20 km from the local front lines .
And if done in groups from opposite directions then these request would only take a few short minutes for each line.
The disappointing thing is it could have been done a full year ago but it needs to happen right now and if done right should be able to be accomplished in 3 days of a SMO , for some irony.
Once the locals gain full control over all of the open fields for 10 to 20 km then they can extract the litter that the unwelcome tourists left behind .
The tourists who set up residence in the small houses, villages , towns or even cities can be left there, unable to go outside and play till they get bored and walk home leaving their vehicles behind or else the locals will book them passage with the afore mentioned Big Black Plastic Bag Transport Company .
All this can be done with nothing more than modified children's toys if there are enough toys & children to play with them
To get enough toys to fill the toy box Ukraine might like to ask some of their friends , say 30 to 60 of them, to each make a single specific type of toy to the numbers of say 2 per day.
Then they can show their gratitude the locals might like to set up some play groups where all of the children from all of the friends can come together and practice playing with their toys in a way that does not cause them to bump into each other & get broken .
For the naughty children who smash their toys into things the first time they are used then their toys can continue to be bought from China where everything is single us only throw away
To expand the previous if you are reading from the top down as the first post which was uploaded 10 minutes before this must be very offensive because it was removed .
Once the tourists are all 20 km or more from the river bank then a bridge of some sort could be used to span the river but in reality, it would just be a big and very obvious target .
The children's toys could be used to make all of the unwanted fishermen leave the river bank for it's entire length and once that happens there are hundreds of places where the plethora of vehicles that the free people have donated to Ukraine which are capable of swimming short distances could safely arrive on the west bank.
While they can only carry a couple of tons, that is a lot of childrens toys, batteries, solar battery chargers and things that burn hot, go bang big time, go bang into 100's of little pieces, make people cry etc etc etc that can be put onto the children's toys .Similarly there are lots of places on the east bank where thy could enter the river from as well, so while these vehicles do move very slow so again become targets dispersion is the best way to get them over the river then a reasonable distance from the bank very quickly so their cargo can be unloaded .
Every one is panicking about getting tanks & the like across the river, I see little to no need for them as many of the vehicles that can swim have reasonable defensive items on board and if there are sufficient children's toys overflying the ground with the right type of accessories fitted nothing is needed other than some long range support from the east bank .
Furthermore if Colonel General Mykola Oleschuk can train the specialist groups who meet & greet convoys of the unwelcome tourist to vacate while leaving their vehicles intact then the locals could put the said same vehicles to very good use convincing more unwanted tourists to leave the country .
It is just a matter of developing the right skill sets in the right people and having them on hand in sufficient numbers to accomplish the desired tasks .
And on that subject Ford could manage to pump out 1 Liberator every hour and a children's tay is far less complicated . So if Ukraine was to ask 30 to 60 their friends to make 1-2 children's toys of a specific type every day, it should not be a big job for them to do so if 30 friends were to supply 45 ( 1.5/day ) toys a month then that is a whopping 1350 to 2700 toys to fill the toy chest up with .
These should all of course be of the long life sturdy type as China can produce all of the flimsy ones for children who smash their toys into things the first time they play with them .
Now to promote harmony they could set up play groups a long way away so the children of the friendly countries could learn to play the locals in a manner that avoids breaking the toys so it becomes mutually beneficial as the local children have more experience at playing with these toys than the friendly neighbours
This is classic Tactical v Strategic. Tactically on the ground this is a Nightmare for Ukraine . Strategic Russia can not let them form a Big beachhead so are expending a lot to stop it.
I Know it sounds bad but these are special opd bro they are professionals
Andrew, your analysis is well-reasoned, but is unidimensional. An equally important dimension is the flow of time. Envision Kinky as a metaphorical hour glass. Grains of sand in its top represent soldiers that gained skills for survival in the crucible of combat. The grains in the bottom represent soldiers that have gained death in the crucible of combat. Soldiers that survive pass their skills onto others through training. Solders that don't are silenced by death. The flow sand through the the hour glass significantly advantages Ukraine's ground forces in Krinky and is replicated along the entire battle front. Dead Russian tell no tales.
You ignore, or you don't know, that Ukraine has artillery, mortars and antiaircraft systems on the west bank.
Don't forget the "Patriot ambush", Russia lost a number of SU-30 or SU-34's
How many Lancet hits Russia scored?
By not making a breakthrough, Ukraine troops are quite exposed in Krynky. We don't know the numbers, but since the Ukraine Army HQ is not removing their troops, the losses of infantry vs Russian equipment and troops must be worth it (I know, that's a nasty calculation that nobody should be forced to do in their lifetimes).
If they can move/rotate troops in this area, I suppose that they can evacuate injured troops as well. It would be nice to have attack helicopters and jet aircraft supporting Krynky and make possible the transport of heavy equipment like Bradleys and Leopards in order to make a hole in Russian positions and head to Crimea.
I suspect that there are frantic troops and contractors building defense bunkers, minefields and trenches 10-15 km behind the contact line at the moment...
it's pretty certain that Krynky is alleviating some pressure from the southern front, but it needs to be scaled up in order to help offset the pressure on Avdiivka and other hotspots. They need to enlarge the bridgehead in order to attract larger numbers of Russians into the honeypot.
La ofensiva de los rusos me recuerda a la batalla del Bulge en cuanto a sus propósitos,pero con un ejército muy inferior en capacidades,si siguen así van a terminar mal
So not only is Krinky worth it, Krinky s vital if the locals want to remove the tourist before the end of the decade or there are no locals left .
You are making the same mistake as the Ukraine military is currently making.
Drones are AIRCRAFT and should be considered as an airforce not as a novelty item or childrens toys .
What is very disappointing is that the Ukraine has not put the modified children's toys under the command of Colonel General Mykola Oleschuk so he can work out how to deploy them as a stand alone force because if that was to happen then Ukraine could go on a massive offensive .
These modified chidren's toys need to be organized into groups according to their type and much more use of the reusable re-armable larger units that can patrol & engage multiple targets
These modified children's toys right now are at the same state as aircraft were at the beginning of WW II and should be deployed using the same method of organization & engagements .
Krinky should be the training ground for this and once Colonel General Mykola Oleschuk has worked out how best to deploy this new weapon and has accumulated sufficient pilots & planes should use them as the primary vector of attack to remove the unwanted tourist from Ukrainian soil , hopefully via the Big Black Plastic Bag transport company .
The bulk of the territory is heavily mined open fields so why go through them just because it is NATO doctrine when you can go over them without suffering a single casualty .
Right now there is no vegetative cover so it should be less difficult to clean out all of the trenches & tree lines to the point that Ukraine has full control over them.
No need to attack buildings, villages, towns or cities because doing this just leads to the total destruction of them which is the last thing Ukraine wants. When this is done it is just a waiting game till the encircled unwanted tourist run out of supplies & surrender or make an attempt to flee when they come under attack from the right kind of modified children's toy which as you have already mentioned could be controlled from 100 + km away if there is a method of getting the signals to the modified children's toys . Even better the pilots can be rotated after every sortie and coverage can be 24/7 without anyone becoming sleep deprived .
Krinky has proven just how effective having full fire control over the open ground is . The cheap off the shelf toys have a range up to 5 km , the better ones 10km and the very expensive 20 km.
The bulk of the gear the unwanted tourist have brought with them has a range of 10 km or less so by using the right toys the locals can clear out the tourists up to 20 km towards the border then move their own positions 10 km further towards the border so always be as safe as you can be in a country over run with unwanted tourists .
Strange descriptors used because over 1000 of my comments have been pulled from YT from non native English speakers searching for the use of particular words then using thousands of web bots to make complaints .
For you Andrew, I know this change in tactics would be a nightmare because you would have next to no idea where to draw the lines on the maps, but it is not about lines on a map it is about democracy countering authoritarianism and saving as many lives of the democratically ruled as possible while doing the least amount of structural damage to the country side .
"is it worth trading Ukraine's infrantry to Russia's equipment?" Russias equipment losses are far more visible than Ukraine's human losses. Therefore it's hard to judge.
Do you think ukraine shouldve been much more agressive expanding the bridgehead immediately while russia had weaker defences in the area?
I spoke to a marine here a few months ago who told me ukraine had 14 days to expand the bridgehead or it would be lost. And in that time ukraine didn’t capture anything. He’s not happy about it tbh.
@@andrewperpetua Thanks for the reply.
I understand it would be very risky for Ukraine attempting to bring heavy equipment across the river, but they could've expanded the bridgehead along the river under artillery protection from other side. Do you agree?
@@tiitsaul9036 I don’t know, I don’t think they had the ability to support the forces necessary to do it.
This was presented to Russia as a dilemma: Either allow Ukraine to secure a foothold, or bring down a ton of troops to kick them out. In hindsight, I wonder if Ukraine was preferring Russia take the latter option. In any case, that's obviously the option Russia picked, and it kind of obviates the former option of conducting a full crossing.
From what I could see there were a number of steps Ukraine needed to do, including push back artillery, push back navy, push back helicopters, achieve air drone dominance, and get enough air defense in place to make it untenable for larger aircraft. All these things have happened, any one of which seemed impossible at the outset, so that's quite an achievement. But importantly, they needed to have boots on the ground to take and hold tactically critical choke points, crossroads, and forested elevations, and they needed to get F16's active in the skies and machinery active on the ground yet I do not see evidence of this having happened. I figured winter was their best chance to do that. I'm guessing maybe once the Ukrainians saw they successfully baited Russia into investing so much force here, they pulled up stakes and reconfigured into the turkey shooting gallery that Mr. Perpetua describes.
But Russia can't exactly stop at this point; as soon as they do Ukraine can bring forces over again and then fortify it for real. And if Russia allows Ukraine to demonstrate it can still take ground then it emboldens their Western allies to increase support. But I don't know how long Russia can keep this up; transporting fighting vehicles to Krynky is a long, long path.
Medivac using Large drones
Ukraine is not losing any equipment while destroying all that Muscovite equipment
well its sucking up russian attention and resources so yes it is worth it. Ukraine is tying up thousands of russian soldiers and equipment with a few hundred marines. They get their troops needed experience, learn what is needed to maintain a crossing logistically, get the logistics people desperately needed training and organizational experience, and are gutting russian forces in the area. All while risking very little in terms of men and resources.
I don't think the Ukrainians spend much time inside the village of Krynky. Most likely they are held up in the woods north and south of the village.
Thats not worth it,that seems that not care of they loose there soldiers,Slava ukr From Sweden.
It's almost like Russia doesn't get it. Slava Ukraini! VPDFO.
"We're lucky that they are so fucking stupid"...will be one of the most appropriate and memorable quotes from this war.
@@tito2525, yes, they are stupid, and more accurately, this is demonstration of the kind of stupid that arises from the entrenched thinking of only having one party line that you adhere to disregarding everything else. For Russia it is only tell those in charge good things, and when things are not working don't tell those in charge.
You know what Russia got? Krinky.
Check again@@A_Takacs
Tobruk 1941 - Andrew it’s war
Speculating about the wounded of Ukraine is silly . The command knows what they are doing and they are fighting for their nation to stop it from being annihilated .
Most of the commenters here, should click their heels together 3 times and tell themselves what they want to hear. Just kidding maybe they should just cope more.
Krynky, where Ukraines forces go, but they don't come back. Not a good plan.
First 😎
Dork!
ukraine lost several thousand lives there, shipping in at least 100 a day that never returned, there are in the rear strikes everywhere not just in krinki, and the russians do it to. you seem to ignore the heavy fab bombardment of 70 a day on to the west bank, they do not evacuate many ppl as they would have to carry them all the way instead of a nearby vehicle. the ukranians have always been fully contained and the russians simply never flushed them out due to the attrition inflicted on the ukranians, which was thre marine units that were pretty much the last of the professional soldiers. just getting wet from splatter during the crossing wouldve caused attrition on ukranians. you cant make a fire nothing. this is not for ukranians, this is aimed to be against russia and ukranians pay the price of life
if they are *fully* contained, why continue loosing a shit load of vehicles in senseless attacks there?
Like it happened again recently?
here we got the russian troll, so whats your source of your claim beside trust me bro
and the entire text reck of google translation from russian
@@Vulcano7965 ukraine been losing about 100 men daily for three months vs 40 apcs disabled. it doesnt looks like they are going anywhere on the map , thats 100% contained. russians have positions that aree geolocated around the place and they cant stick their heads up with out getting shelled, sensless attacks? as if sending 100 men and women accross a wide river in to some canals running trough a swamp isnt the senseless bit here. Have you see a single vid of evacuation? i havent as the russians have full surveillance of the tiny area 24/7 and pretty much everything that comes in gets targeted and sticking on a landing point waiting to be evaced is 100% guaranteed death. further more these soldiers there would tell stories which would be bad for moral. which is exactly why the reform units and send them in to the hotspot over and over again till no one is left to tell the tail trough out the conflict. you simply fail to understand that whole units get killed as this isnt the 1900s anymore. i think you missed the troop location movement reports which indicates that ukranie keeps losing whole brigades worth of people. which iss why they now draft women. last but not least there have been ukranian uploads from krinki stating that no one returns to the west bank.
its impressive how political bias made you so blind you cant deduct simple conclusions out of hopeless situations
such as the countless of lancet strikes or the bombarding of west bank troop concentrations. 70 strikes daily with precision guided 500 kilo worth of explosives. and thats just on the supply point for the krinki firebag. frankly the ukranian strategic insight is krank.
For some reason they keep attacking traps, in low grounds and across rivers.
there is a reason why the russians fell back from kershon despite inflicting 2k casualties on the advancing ukranian forces daily. its hard to supply a population troops and amunition accross a river.
its laughable to think that ukraine has a shot running in there with their speed boats when its far below freezing
@@febeomnibeepboop6367 So why are the russians still attacking and loosing in armored formations when they supposedly have the area under 100% surveillance and can shell them safely from afar?
You still haven't answered that.
I wish he would stop saying "a bunch".
A bunch of bunches can be irksome, but 'plethora' or 'superabundance' might sound unduly sesquipedalian. To be fair to Mr Perpetua he gets several uses of 'many', ' a lot', a 'substantial' , and a 'fifty to a hundred' and 'significant', 'tremendous' and 'an enormous amount' into the mix. So i don't think he is over-bunching just yet. :)
@@markdpricemusic1574 Okay. You just gave me a good reason to watch more of his posts. To see if he really does that.
@@bertoldriesenteil1430 he does it a bunch :)
you should try to stop the nerdy giggling. it's annoying, people are dying, there's absolutely nothing funny