As a useless, retired, old Industrial Design Engineer, I see the problem is the dry binder. It maintains its mass and volume in the mix, thus displacing anode/cathode particles, reducing particle film density and making the film too thick. The solvent based system evaporated and reduced thickness while keeping the desired density. Either solvent base to maximize performance or reduce/replace solid binder with one that requires less volume in the mix, thus increasing particle density and cell performance. Committing to a production technology/technique before having a solution to these issues isn't an efficient process and these things were likely known, or SHOULD have been, prior to the massive commitment of resources toward this method of production. Like a said, I'm an old, useless, retired Industrial Design Engineer and these are simply musings of my observations.
Perhaps, but in my view spirally winding the batteries is the mistake. The cylindrical format is a legacy hanging over from C cells, D cells etc. They were weren't spirally wound they were bulk filled. For EVs the blade cell configuration makes much better sense and only requires 126 cells to make an EV battery pack, vs thousands for comparable cylindrical cells.
Powder coat paints are thinner and more evenly applied than solvent based systems, likely similar to the application of the battery dry application. They may have a mixing problem. They need to use pseudo cavitation mixing.
@@jimgraham6722 Blade/prismatic is fine for LFP, but I wouldn't trust it for high-nickel/long range chemistries. It doesn't help that the cells of that format are made in China and have a propensity to self-immolate. Yet, safety may not be Tesla's only reason for staying cylindrical. At least historically, it's also cheaper per kW.h, regardless of your impressions.
My big issue with this video is that he is making assumptions on sticker price of the modely variant with the cost of the battery. Which is rediculous.
@@mefobills279 Till something breaks. once running you have so much that can and will go wrong. If its not the customers, its the vendors. and then its the employees. Every day its a new issue. Keeping high speed manufacturing running is its own challenge.
That small price difference allows Tesla Y buyers to squeak under the $50k limit of many state EV incentives. The price they sell these cars at is determined by demand, not the cost of the battery cells
The slightly lower cost is that way is simply to slow consumption of them to a rate they can keep up with. That's the entire basis of their pricing, it's whatever price they have to set in order to keep their production lines running at capacity. Demand goes up? Raise prices to adjust consumption.
Yes, this exactly. Also, the idea in the video that doubling a cars range should double the price totally ignores all the fixed non-battery costs that go into a vehicle.
@@seanxmurray true but as a consumer you'll see a 6% difference in price for a 20% difference in travel which is the main differentiating feature between the 2 options.
This ignores consumer price sensitivity. Raise prices 10%? Sure, you can always do that. But if that crashes your sales volume, it may not be wise. Especially considering that, price per mile/range is clearly worse in it's current state...
So many fans here blindly overprotecting Tesla which i too driving Model 3. Good to hear they are struggling sometimes like everyone else 😊 Nice work on the news and content you made 👍
LFP cells have improved dramatically since 4680 was announced. Cold weather performance and weight issues have been solved. So why not make LFP in 4680 format.
@@pauld3327 Not sure. I know they do use BYD blade cells including in some vehicles made in Germany. It is difficult however, to know the status as even owners (I am one) don't know exactly what cells are in their Model 3s. I know mine has LFP batteries but don't know whether they are BYD blades, CATLs or something else. My Atto in the other hand has the exact battery specification in the owners manual spec sheet as follows, Man Traction Battery: 400V 61KWHr LFP 126S1P blade cells
The reason why Tesla hasn't mass produced those 4680 batteries is due to them still "working on it" since they had problem with bad batteries being produced due to one problem or another. There is no point in trying to expand the line from 1 to 3 lines if they are STILL WORKING on it to make the process faster and better. They are increasing the number of batteries being produced month by month just like in your video where the trajectory is going up, not down as months passes. Therefore, they are making changes for the better, and increasing the speed of production, albeit, slower than projected. They had problems with caps which were not being crimped properly, and as a result in bad battery being produced, and they keep changing and upgrading their battery so less bad batteries can be produced at a faster rate. This is Tesla's FIRST attempt at making a battery, so give them a break.....sheeee.
Sheesh is absolutely right! They will nail this battery in good time. Quit trying to dump on the company doing everything they can to change the world of electric vehicles! Sheesh!
This video isn’t dumping on Tesla, simply stating facts, Tesla has fallen significantly short in timing and expectations. There is still no sign of silicon anode yet. This shortfall has impacted ability to scale and may have caused the delay of the Cybertruck. I’m a massive Tesla fan and shareholder but 4680 ramp has disappointed me a bit.
@@scottmackey4182you're the reason Tesla fanboys get a bad rap. A complete inability to hear any valid critiques of the company w/out getting emotional & lashing out.
You didn't actually give any significant new information. Giga Austin has spent most of the last year building a new Cathode plant. Some of the equipment we know has been installed is stuff that not usually found in a Cathode production facility. (The weirdest one I heard of is presses to make tiles) My guess is that the techniques to produce a dry cathode has been solved, and the work lately has been to design mass production equipment to implement those techniques at scale. It's possible their idea won't work, but they certainly *seem* to be confident it will. The first indication that it is solved will be duplicating that plant in Germany and China.
They have hired Matt Tyler, a Milwaukee School of Engineering educated mechanical engineer, who has been working on battery cells for over a decade. Most recently, he was working for Cambridge-based 24M, a battery manufacturer pioneering what it calls “semisolid electrodes” for lithium-ion batteries that came out of the MIT lab of Dr. Yet-Ming Chiang.
The comparison shouldn't just be on range - the size of the battery matters as well. You can specifically consider range only provided the battery sizes are the same - you haven't confirmed that.
Thank you for an accurate critique of the issue and not another fanboy post. No doubt Tesla will figure out a battery solutuon for the "Model 2" within the next few years.
LiCAP Technologies in Sacramento, CA (originally based out of China I think?) Has this dry electrode coating as well. They mainly make capacitors but the process can be applied to batteries which I believe they are doing.
Superb content. Really. This is critical analysis of the 4680. The fact is, that the promise of the 2020 battery day, has fallen flat on its face...if you consider the whoopla of the 2020 presentation. Having said that, the advantage is still with Tesla given its regular battery production global scale. Its a real pity that the 4680 is stuck where it is. However, knowing Musk, they will absolutely try everything to solve the problem. For me, the biggest surprise was the range reduction of the car offered by the 4680...capacity and charge rate are what consumers care most about (apart from safety of course).
The LOWER range with the 4680 compared to the 2170s hurts, for sure. The bigger issue IMO is the slow pace of making them. TBH I would be okay if Tesla pivots to a different design. It has been 3 years. Other options are starting to emerge.
@@billsrelectricyep lower range = a fail , the whole point of making the new battery is that it is supposed to be better than the current ones , so far it’s a massive fail.
@@mikldude9376 Failures are going to occur. The greatest baseball hitters "miss" over 60% of the time. Not unlike a stock portfolio too. Someone is considered a great investor if just 30-40% of their stocks do well, and the other 60% are dogs. Right now the entire planet is working to find better, cheaper ways to make batteries. It will happen, even if the 4680 form factor and chemistry is not it.
Are they still going to make Cybertrucks with 4680 cells? I also heard that the top model Cybertruck is not going to have 500 miles of range but more like 400 miles of range. Can anyone confirm or disprove this? Thanks for the video. I was hoping the 4680 would be more efficient, not less. It's a good thing I'm just about last on the list for Cybertruck delivery. Maybe they will figure it out by then.
I've always been curious about why Tesla uses Chinese battery cells. It seems they can't increase production fast enough to compete on price. If it takes too long to reach their mass production goal, it could be a bigger problem when competing with Chinese EVs.
I believe Tesla uses CATL LFP batteries in certain models for certain markets because Tesla simply doesn’t make LFP batteries. They ran the numbers and decided it make more sense to buy those cells from CATL.
Given that 50%+ of Teslas are LFP batteries they are really sourcing third party batteries. LFP batteries are getting huge in Europe. Almost all affordable Chinese EV`s we get are equipped with LFP. The Tesla Standard range are also coming with LFP. These cars would probably not come over to US because of Tariffs
Aside from the fact that the 4680 is a useless white elephant and relies on old technology. The biggest EV battery and car manufacturer (they sold 500,000 more cars than Tesla last year) is BYD. Their battery technology leaves Tesla at the starting blocks. Even Tesla are using the latest Chinese LFP CATL batteries. It tells you Tesla is far behind Chinese EV technology and manufacturing. The only thing setting Tesla apart from other EV manufacturers is it FSD. But the Chinese will supersede that in a year or so.
2:36 that’s not how you should compare them. You are doing price to range as a proportion but the model y is not 100% batteries therefore the 4680Y would always be more expensive. You need subtract the vehicle price before comparing numbers to know the true price to perfomance of 4680. So it’s unknowable if the 4680 are more expensive starting with the model y price
There's so much innovation going on in battery tech. It would not surprise me if Tesla went off on a tangent exploring new battery tech and that fact maybe slowing down the building of new production lines. You don't want to ramp up production and build huge factories on a battery tech if you see new tech just around the corner that is going to make your current factories obsolete before they have even finished being built. It's a big tradeoff, you don't want to wait too long because you need batteries now, but you don't want to jump in early on some tech that gets replaced a year later.
They have some of the best people working in these cells. I’m sure they will get there but everything could change in a instant with another leap in battery tech and these could be outdated before even becoming the norm.
Yeah, everything could stay the same for years, until it doesn't matter anymore, as better batteries would've arrived. Though, who am I kidding, those are taking their sweet sweet time too.
I'd worry about the tabless design which makes connections by just pressing tabs together rather than welding or soldering. Over time, that might become an iffy connection, like when you need to shake a flashlight to get a good connection to the batteries. A problem at low voltage differences, less so at >100 V like home outlets.
Excellent analysis. At Battery Day, they also talked of mining Li from clay deposits in NV, using a salt process. They even bought a clay mine in anticipation of that, but no info since.
Reminds me of the constantly failed D-cells that would die prematurely. Suspect the massiveness and travel distances within the cells reduce it performance.
18650 is the best battery from panasonic which is why s/x still uses them to this day. 2170 is the main standard for all car companies atm and has more power to weight than any battery. cybertruck will be using 4680 dont worry, they wont be putting 2170 in the trucks because it uses alot more cells.
First rate work! Knew there were multiple problems with the 4680 but wasn't sure exactly why they were stalled on this (ie a 4680 with 300+AH/kg) and fully dry to get rid of the ovens and solvents (cost)
I think Tesla may have overlooked a very fundamental part of the 4680. For example the 4680 is 5.5 times bigger than the 2170 battery and yes; theoretically designed to produce 5x more. But that bigger battery needs 5 times the space, and unless you make a bigger body vehicle, you won't get any more battery range and possibly less because of how the batteries fit into the same space. It's not any more efficient, because the same chemicals are still in use to create the battery. If those batteries were the same size of the 2170, or the 18650 batteries and produced 5 times the power.. that's quite a different story. But fundamentally no change or real improvement. If anything the power density was decreased because you can't put as many batteries in the same space..
The geometric fill factor is the same, but there is less material being wasted because the case isn't proportionally thicker, which means that overall the battery should produce a slightly higher power density. Not that this has anything to do with anything. The simple fact is that Tesla isn't going to make more batteries than they can sell in their cars, so if they aren't integrating it into more than one model, yet, then there is no point in battery production exceeding the sales of that model. If that model is "overpriced", that means they are actually making more money on it than on the others. It may be true that the customer who buys that model may get shortchanged, but that's not a problem for Tesla. It's a problem for the buyer.
@@lepidoptera9337 agreed.. , because the material inside the battery to make it one.. is no more efficient than what they were already using. Take a look at the range numbers in the models where the 4680 batteries are in play. The range has decreased instead of increased. They stand to increase their profit margin by reducing the number of batteries from their size in the same or smaller space.
@@troublelessone7999 We shouldn't forget that Tesla also has a habit of restricting range by software. There is a good reason to do that initially: an artificially reduced range stresses the new batteries less, so if long term reliability issues should arise, they will be less severe and impact fewer customers (which avoids generating negative PR for Tesla). One has to wonder if some of that is going on here as well. They will also have to tolerate some serious underutilization of the new battery production line for now because once they decide to put it in one of the updates of the better selling versions, they better have the battery manufacturing capacity available instantly to actually deliver or they will lose sales. So, yeah, a certain amount of production efficiency in the beginning is probably not even avoidable.
Everyone has a multiplier it's pretty safe to apply to the timescale on any promise they make. With me, I'm ashamed to say I'll usually triple my gut-feel guess on how long and how much effort a project will take before that guess makes it onto a piece of paper. Elon seems to sit anywhere between 15x and never. He's just winging it. Best listen to literally anyone else in Tesla. Simply brilliant bunch of engineers
Take what these youtubers say with a grain of salt. I ordered a 4680 model y regardless for many reasons over the long range. I don’t care about having a 50 more miles as it doesn’t save much time over most road trips. The build quality and safety/sturdiness is better because of structural pack…and better battery tech is worth it.
@@Rpp92898 hell yeah congrats! What color did you end up getting? Lol I ordered mine 4 days ago and got my VIN already. Says it’ll take another 9 days max for delivery!
Reducing cost of production does not have to mean cheaper cars. It makes sense to sell a now cheaper car at similar prices to before when demand is high.
Full self driving hasn't worked yet. If they could do cross country trips like promised, they'd have marketing videos. They had to make hundreds of tries for their current FSD video and cut them together. They haven't managed a 35k model 3 except as a limited distribution stunt that has now been stopped. Tesla semi's are not competitive. Cyber truck doesn't use an exoskeleton. Their plants are less optimized than industry standard, they still haven't fixed build quality. Almost no promise from Elon has actually been delivered. They get close enough and walk away.
Yeah, he's overly "optimistic" . Unfortunately for him, in the last couple of years the Chinese have been making huge leaps in battery tech AND can produce those batteries, Tesla even uses their batteries.
Difference here is that they actually lied. They said they were currently producing cells with these stats 3 years ago. They weren't then and they aren't now.
Such an unreasonable thing to say. Elon Musk has failed on far more of his promises than not. Time also matters. Solving self driving in 50 years isn’t impressive. Solving it in 2019 would have been impressive.
Everyone would be fine if he missed timelines by even up to 50% (It'll be ready in 12 months but takes 18). What is frustrating is when he says FSD will be feature complete by 2019, yet four years later its still nowhere near complete! (Save it! Elon needs to drive for 45 minutes on V12 in any downtown metro area with zero or even 1 intervention before anyone can say its close, because driving mainly in the suburbs on well-marked streets doesn't pass muster!) The current excuse is they're "compute constrained", but they'll have 100x the compute power up and running by Oct 2024. At that time they'll be another reason it's still not ready and the Cult-bulls will forget all past failed projections and just roll over and lap up whatever the new "game changing" strategy is pushed that will actually solve it this time, just like they did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and soon 2024. It's actually fully understandable that FSD hasn't been solved. It's likely the hardest technical challenge ever attempted and the amount of edge cases are nearly limitless. What I don't understand is why Elon keeps predicting these ridiculous timelines. I think most people and investors would rather Tesla keep many of these projects under a Skunk Works type R&D department and only unveil them when they are literally go-to-market ready. Rant over... and as an investor, I will happily eat my words and admit I'm an idiot with maximum contrition if FSD is solved by year's end. PLEASE make it happen, Elon and the Tesla FSD team!
Not to take anything away from Tesla’s many accomplishments but. . most reputable OEMs won’t say things until some measure of confidence is built up regarding manufacturability. FSD, the 4680, and now the Optimus robot- all talked up way too early.
Tesla diversified with 18650, 2170, 4680, LFP and now LFP M3P. Most other manufacturers just one battery most lithium ION VS IRON. Lg Chem trying to switch over to LFP Also
How often did Tesla ever hit production schedule on time? e.g. cybertruck Also 4680 is not intrinsic to "dry cell" development, if anything 4680 is ramping up production. However, it does 'seem' like 4680 over 2170 were over hyped *until* if production can "reaches maximum efficiency" (Tesla still struggling since birth)
I would still get the 4,680 battery cells with my model Y, because it has less chance of combusting. And don’t worry, Tesla does a lot of early fine tuning that helps to eventually ramp up massively.
your logic for the price difference is acutely wrong. The only production cost decrease is in the battery cells. The production cost of the remainder of the car has not changed. So if the price of the battery pack is 10k for example then a price reduction of 3k makes more sense. I dont see how they can decrease the production cost of the battery by 70% to lower the price by 7k+. Yet
i find it funny people thought tesla had a chance in hell of becoming some super battery producing company. its taken them 20 years to produce what normal car manufacturing companies produce per year, and thats thier actual speciality.
Batteries are in a constant state of improvements and changes. the 4680 battery is constantly changing and Tesla is not the only manufacturer. Panasonic and CATL are both making 4680 cells. Tesla and other battery manufacturers are always looking at battery chemistry and changing chemistry. Looking any battery manufactured today doesn't mean much because LFP batteries might gain popularity or sodium/ion or graphene or... The batteries being installed in cars in 2033 have probably not been designed yet. The secret is who is currently building EV's at a scale and at a profit and Tesla is the only manufacturer that has accomplished that feat so far. Tesla is building a great car right now and as batteries improve so will Ev's.
Panasonic and CATL may be making 4680 form factor cells, but are they using dry electrode tech? Are they using a tabless design? No, and probably not. Battery cells that look the same on the outside, may be very different indeed on the inside. Now, it may be that Tesla will abandon its efforts at dry electrode tech. Something better and easier to produce may come along any time. As you say, EV battery tech is constantly changing and constantly improving.
Please give us a clear estimate graph of the 4680 production in Model Y packs per months for the last three years. To give us an idea if Tesla is on a curve to solve the problem. If they don't solve this their expansion numbers are lower. And it explain why the Cybertruck and the Semi are late.
First off, they couldn't make more batteries due to having complications with the supply chain, material availability, and problems associated with producing mass quantities of batteries. He even showed the graph where the production of battery has been going up each quarter or months. There is no point in making a semitruck when the battery isn't available in large quantities. That is just common sense. There is no point of hiring more workers when you are only making a few at a time. The cost associated with making a few vs many is vastly different depending on the number of vehicles produced in the same day, hour, and minute. Shortage of batteries is just one reason. Supply chain was another issue that they had to deal with. Without parts, you can't complete the vehicle in the production line. That is also another common sense.....I am sure there are other problems they had associated with developing a NEW Vehicle......
I don't buy Tesla had a problem on the supply issues of the batteries. They had a supply problem on the chips issue like everybody else. They are having problems on the fabrication of the batteries. If they don't show significant improvements then their vehicules production prediction are completely wrong.@@1flash3571
As investors say: "Past performance is not indicative of future results." Yeah, you can -- more or less -- predict ramping up manufacture of a certain tech, once the technical challenges have been solved. But quite clearly, from this very well-informed video, Tesla still faces many unresolved technical challenges. The various posts here claiming confidence that Tesla can solve all these challenges are just whistling in the dark. I certainly *hope* that Tesla can significantly ramp up 4680 cell production, but that's very far from guaranteed. This whole thing may be a massive fail, and may be scrapped for a type of battery cell easier to produce.
@@davidsooby9961 Isn't that why Tesla is using MULTIPLE types of battery sizes from multiple battery companies to build out their battery packs???? Also, Tesla is giving us on their progress on how fast or slow the progress is coming....Even if Tesla do not reach their goal, as long as they get close, shouldn't that be fine also?????
Why are these batteries cells so small? Would it not be more productive to make bigger batterie cells, this way the automobiles could have less of them and that would help with less points of failure.
It's about compromises. You essentially have to take all the parameters and come up with a min-max point. Go too big and some parameters start suffering (thermal would be one), go too small and your fixed losses start getting too high.
The problem is heat builds up inside a cell during use, and especially during fast charging (and fast discharging when the car accelerates in a jack-rabbit start). The larger the cell, the harder it is to dissipate heat. For example, read up on Boeing's Dreamliner, and the production delays due to the fire hazard it had from using just a few large battery cells. (Google "Dreamliner battery fire hazard".) Tesla's new tabless design for the cells promises less heat buildup, which allows them to make the 4680 cells significantly larger than the more common 18650 cells. But making *much* larger cells simply isn't practical or safe, at least not with today's battery tech.
So I've read a few comments, no one has mentioned the asian maker of batteries that will be making 4680 ones. I forget who, but they are coming online and will expand.
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
As a useless, retired, old Industrial Design Engineer, I see the problem is the dry binder. It maintains its mass and volume in the mix, thus displacing anode/cathode particles, reducing particle film density and making the film too thick. The solvent based system evaporated and reduced thickness while keeping the desired density. Either solvent base to maximize performance or reduce/replace solid binder with one that requires less volume in the mix, thus increasing particle density and cell performance. Committing to a production technology/technique before having a solution to these issues isn't an efficient process and these things were likely known, or SHOULD have been, prior to the massive commitment of resources toward this method of production. Like a said, I'm an old, useless, retired Industrial Design Engineer and these are simply musings of my observations.
Perhaps, but in my view spirally winding the batteries is the mistake. The cylindrical format is a legacy hanging over from C cells, D cells etc. They were weren't spirally wound they were bulk filled. For EVs the blade cell configuration makes much better sense and only requires 126 cells to make an EV battery pack, vs thousands for comparable cylindrical cells.
@@jimgraham6722Agreed.
Powder coat paints are thinner and more evenly applied than solvent based systems, likely similar to the application of the battery dry application. They may have a mixing problem.
They need to use pseudo cavitation mixing.
Thank you for your service ~ now please go and enjoy your retirement.
@@jimgraham6722 Blade/prismatic is fine for LFP, but I wouldn't trust it for high-nickel/long range chemistries. It doesn't help that the cells of that format are made in China and have a propensity to self-immolate. Yet, safety may not be Tesla's only reason for staying cylindrical. At least historically, it's also cheaper per kW.h, regardless of your impressions.
My big issue with this video is that he is making assumptions on sticker price of the modely variant with the cost of the battery. Which is rediculous.
I spent my life in manufacturing.
Manufacturing is hard.
Making millions of anything is very hard.
They will get it.
Yep, only 3 years into an new production. These things take time.
R and D and prototyping is hard. The design impacts manufacturing. Once manufacturing is set up, turn the crank. But getting set up can be hard.
@@mefobills279 Till something breaks.
once running you have so much that can and will go wrong.
If its not the customers, its the vendors. and then its the employees.
Every day its a new issue.
Keeping high speed manufacturing running is its own challenge.
That small price difference allows Tesla Y buyers to squeak under the $50k limit of many state EV incentives. The price they sell these cars at is determined by demand, not the cost of the battery cells
2:25 Range is most certainly CRITICAL
Finally someone realistic reporting on Tesla.
-subscribed, ALL
Yes, my first thumbs up for a Tesla fanboy channel.
The range difference on a day to day use is not so stark because you charge the iron battery to 100% and the other to 80%.
The slightly lower cost is that way is simply to slow consumption of them to a rate they can keep up with. That's the entire basis of their pricing, it's whatever price they have to set in order to keep their production lines running at capacity. Demand goes up? Raise prices to adjust consumption.
Yes, this exactly. Also, the idea in the video that doubling a cars range should double the price totally ignores all the fixed non-battery costs that go into a vehicle.
@@seanxmurray true but as a consumer you'll see a 6% difference in price for a 20% difference in travel which is the main differentiating feature between the 2 options.
This ignores consumer price sensitivity. Raise prices 10%? Sure, you can always do that. But if that crashes your sales volume, it may not be wise. Especially considering that, price per mile/range is clearly worse in it's current state...
So many fans here blindly overprotecting Tesla which i too driving Model 3. Good to hear they are struggling sometimes like everyone else 😊 Nice work on the news and content you made 👍
LFP cells have improved dramatically since 4680 was announced. Cold weather performance and weight issues have been solved. So why not make LFP in 4680 format.
Because the blade configuration is both cheaper to make and has better performance. Globally many Tesla's are fitted with blade batteries.
@@jimgraham6722I think Tesla uses more LFP batteries from CATL than from BYD
@@pauld3327 Not sure. I know they do use BYD blade cells including in some vehicles made in Germany. It is difficult however, to know the status as even owners (I am one) don't know exactly what cells are in their Model 3s. I know mine has LFP batteries but don't know whether they are BYD blades, CATLs or something else.
My Atto in the other hand has the exact battery specification in the owners manual spec sheet as follows, Man Traction Battery: 400V 61KWHr LFP 126S1P blade cells
@@jimgraham6722 AFAIK currently only CATL produces LFP cells for Tesla.
Lacks brute discharge current and charge current ability.
How do you speculate the production costs solely from the price of model y?
6:22 shouldn't that be 30x? (100GWh to 3TWh)
The reason why Tesla hasn't mass produced those 4680 batteries is due to them still "working on it" since they had problem with bad batteries being produced due to one problem or another. There is no point in trying to expand the line from 1 to 3 lines if they are STILL WORKING on it to make the process faster and better. They are increasing the number of batteries being produced month by month just like in your video where the trajectory is going up, not down as months passes. Therefore, they are making changes for the better, and increasing the speed of production, albeit, slower than projected. They had problems with caps which were not being crimped properly, and as a result in bad battery being produced, and they keep changing and upgrading their battery so less bad batteries can be produced at a faster rate. This is Tesla's FIRST attempt at making a battery, so give them a break.....sheeee.
What's the % of the 4680 that are bad from the manf.?
Sheesh is absolutely right! They will nail this battery in good time. Quit trying to dump on the company doing everything they can to change the world of electric vehicles! Sheesh!
This video isn’t dumping on Tesla, simply stating facts, Tesla has fallen significantly short in timing and expectations. There is still no sign of silicon anode yet. This shortfall has impacted ability to scale and may have caused the delay of the Cybertruck. I’m a massive Tesla fan and shareholder but 4680 ramp has disappointed me a bit.
@@scottmackey4182you're the reason Tesla fanboys get a bad rap. A complete inability to hear any valid critiques of the company w/out getting emotional & lashing out.
@@MokeAnit - ooo, lashing out. That’s me for sure loser.
@7:47 the graph says "cost breakdown." Do you have a reference for the actual material percentages?
Awesome video BTW. Thanks!
Great video! I’ve been seeking to understand the challenge with a dry electrode process for months. Thanks!
Right now I'd put my money on CATL winning the energy density race but it will be an interesting contest.
8:25 don’t you have your anode and cathode polarity backwards?
You didn't actually give any significant new information. Giga Austin has spent most of the last year building a new Cathode plant. Some of the equipment we know has been installed is stuff that not usually found in a Cathode production facility. (The weirdest one I heard of is presses to make tiles) My guess is that the techniques to produce a dry cathode has been solved, and the work lately has been to design mass production equipment to implement those techniques at scale. It's possible their idea won't work, but they certainly *seem* to be confident it will. The first indication that it is solved will be duplicating that plant in Germany and China.
They have hired Matt Tyler, a Milwaukee School of Engineering educated mechanical engineer, who has been working on battery cells for over a decade.
Most recently, he was working for Cambridge-based 24M, a battery manufacturer pioneering what it calls “semisolid electrodes” for lithium-ion batteries that came out of the MIT lab of Dr. Yet-Ming Chiang.
Where did you find this Process Video/knowledge??
The comparison shouldn't just be on range - the size of the battery matters as well. You can specifically consider range only provided the battery sizes are the same - you haven't confirmed that.
The size of the battery doesn't matter at all to a normal consumer. Just to geeks.
Really great video. Do you have sources inside Tesla?
Thank you for an accurate critique of the issue and not another fanboy post. No doubt Tesla will figure out a battery solutuon for the "Model 2" within the next few years.
LiCAP Technologies in Sacramento, CA (originally based out of China I think?) Has this dry electrode coating as well. They mainly make capacitors but the process can be applied to batteries which I believe they are doing.
A new cell architecture by a new company takes about 5+ years. Tesla is solidly in middle of this.
Some technologies are taking 10+ years to play out
Excellent content! I usually find massive errors in this kind of content, fantastic work factual and accurate
Other than its almost entirely speculation about where the problems are.
100 GWh x 300 = 3000 GWh?
Superb content. Really. This is critical analysis of the 4680. The fact is, that the promise of the 2020 battery day, has fallen flat on its face...if you consider the whoopla of the 2020 presentation. Having said that, the advantage is still with Tesla given its
regular battery production global scale. Its a real pity that the 4680 is stuck where it is. However, knowing Musk, they will absolutely try everything to solve the problem. For me, the biggest surprise was the range reduction of the car offered by the 4680...capacity and charge rate are what consumers care most about (apart from safety of course).
The LOWER range with the 4680 compared to the 2170s hurts, for sure.
The bigger issue IMO is the slow pace of making them.
TBH I would be okay if Tesla pivots to a different design. It has been 3 years. Other options are starting to emerge.
@@billsrelectricyep lower range = a fail , the whole point of making the new battery is that it is supposed to be better than the current ones , so far it’s a massive fail.
It didn't fail. Elon over inflates expectations vs capabilities.
Good for share price however..
@@mikldude9376 Failures are going to occur. The greatest baseball hitters "miss" over 60% of the time. Not unlike a stock portfolio too. Someone is considered a great investor if just 30-40% of their stocks do well, and the other 60% are dogs. Right now the entire planet is working to find better, cheaper ways to make batteries. It will happen, even if the 4680 form factor and chemistry is not it.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 only because too many let him sadly
Are they still going to make Cybertrucks with 4680 cells? I also heard that the top model Cybertruck is not going to have 500 miles of range but more like 400 miles of range. Can anyone confirm or disprove this? Thanks for the video. I was hoping the 4680 would be more efficient, not less. It's a good thing I'm just about last on the list for Cybertruck delivery. Maybe they will figure it out by then.
same here I am probably 3 years from when ever they release it from getting mine.
Thanks for the update.
the point of things like battery day isn't about making promises and timelines. Its an advertisement to work at Tesla on groundbreaking stuff
I've always been curious about why Tesla uses Chinese battery cells. It seems they can't increase production fast enough to compete on price. If it takes too long to reach their mass production goal, it could be a bigger problem when competing with Chinese EVs.
I believe Tesla uses CATL LFP batteries in certain models for certain markets because Tesla simply doesn’t make LFP batteries. They ran the numbers and decided it make more sense to buy those cells from CATL.
as soon as tesla signed up with china, thier days were numbered. eventually tesla will be bought by a chinese company
Given that 50%+ of Teslas are LFP batteries they are really sourcing third party batteries. LFP batteries are getting huge in Europe. Almost all affordable Chinese EV`s we get are equipped with LFP. The Tesla Standard range are also coming with LFP. These cars would probably not come over to US because of Tariffs
Thank You for showing , some of the problems
0:40 _three years later and nearly none of the expectations have been realized_
You're talking about Elon Musk. Next, you'll tell me water is wet.
Just wondering is it possible to plasma coat the cathode instead of using the old Xerox copier toner technique?
Aside from the fact that the 4680 is a useless white elephant and relies on old technology.
The biggest EV battery and car manufacturer (they sold 500,000 more cars than Tesla last year) is BYD. Their battery technology leaves Tesla at the starting blocks. Even Tesla are using the latest Chinese LFP CATL batteries.
It tells you Tesla is far behind Chinese EV technology and manufacturing.
The only thing setting Tesla apart from other EV manufacturers is it FSD. But the Chinese will supersede that in a year or so.
Slow production rate or high failure rate? Both?
2:36 that’s not how you should compare them. You are doing price to range as a proportion but the model y is not 100% batteries therefore the 4680Y would always be more expensive. You need subtract the vehicle price before comparing numbers to know the true price to perfomance of 4680. So it’s unknowable if the 4680 are more expensive starting with the model y price
There's so much innovation going on in battery tech. It would not surprise me if Tesla went off on a tangent exploring new battery tech and that fact maybe slowing down the building of new production lines. You don't want to ramp up production and build huge factories on a battery tech if you see new tech just around the corner that is going to make your current factories obsolete before they have even finished being built. It's a big tradeoff, you don't want to wait too long because you need batteries now, but you don't want to jump in early on some tech that gets replaced a year later.
They have some of the best people working in these cells. I’m sure they will get there but everything could change in a instant with another leap in battery tech and these could be outdated before even becoming the norm.
And you think that the battery companies haven’t had the “best people “ working on this problem for decades?
Yeah, everything could stay the same for years, until it doesn't matter anymore, as better batteries would've arrived. Though, who am I kidding, those are taking their sweet sweet time too.
@@rcpmacI'm sure they have, but the pressure is on now and I'm sure they have a bunch more resources and money to work with
What a visually pleasant, interesting, and instructive video!
Bravo!! 😊👍
I'd worry about the tabless design which makes connections by just pressing tabs together rather than welding or soldering. Over time, that might become an iffy connection, like when you need to shake a flashlight to get a good connection to the batteries. A problem at low voltage differences, less so at >100 V like home outlets.
If you like to worry about these issues, then you have to become a Tesla engineer and work hard to solve them. Oh, wait... that takes work. ;-)
@@lepidoptera9337 Owners are stuck with problems if beyond warranty, so shouldn't buyers research details? Ask people who bought ~1980 GM diesel cars.
@@SihAza It's unhealthy to worry about things that you can't change, anyway.
I think Tesla is focusing on production yield and quality before mass produce.
Toyota did the same thing with the flat batteries that still haven't been used
Excellent analysis. At Battery Day, they also talked of mining Li from clay deposits in NV, using a salt process. They even bought a clay mine in anticipation of that, but no info since.
Elons numbers are trajectories, goals to achieve here.
Mega Giga Texas ! We will do this. We have to reinvent it all, traditional industry failed....
I have not heard of a mine permitted in the US for the last 15 years; no thanks to those nimby environmentalist.
Reminds me of the constantly failed D-cells that would die prematurely.
Suspect the massiveness and travel distances within the cells reduce it performance.
Are the 4680 tabless?
It is my understanding that the Semi is currently using the 4680 cell. You said there is currently only the model Y
How many semi's are on the road? It's limited run production at best.
18650 is the best battery from panasonic which is why s/x still uses them to this day. 2170 is the main standard for all car companies atm and has more power to weight than any battery. cybertruck will be using 4680 dont worry, they wont be putting 2170 in the trucks because it uses alot more cells.
Does this comparison include the structural pack assembly or is it apples to apples?
First rate work! Knew there were multiple problems with the 4680 but wasn't sure exactly why they were stalled on this (ie a 4680 with 300+AH/kg) and fully dry to get rid of the ovens and solvents (cost)
These batteries are not 300wh/kg but 286 wh/kg.... this is another Elon slip-up that was unfortunately not mentioned in the video.
Yes, nice analysis but you didn't talk about shortages or that we are in a recession @4:34
Probably because that does not seem to be the cause of these delays.
Well, I’d say the really long cathode plant vs the short anode plant at GigaTexas is a sign.
Very well done. Thank you
Great work! 👍🏻🙏🏻❤️
Great explanation. Thanks for sharing!
I think Tesla may have overlooked a very fundamental part of the 4680. For example the 4680 is 5.5 times bigger than the 2170 battery and yes; theoretically designed to produce 5x more. But that bigger battery needs 5 times the space, and unless you make a bigger body vehicle, you won't get any more battery range and possibly less because of how the batteries fit into the same space.
It's not any more efficient, because the same chemicals are still in use to create the battery. If those batteries were the same size of the 2170, or the 18650 batteries and produced 5 times the power.. that's quite a different story. But fundamentally no change or real improvement. If anything the power density was decreased because you can't put as many batteries in the same space..
The geometric fill factor is the same, but there is less material being wasted because the case isn't proportionally thicker, which means that overall the battery should produce a slightly higher power density. Not that this has anything to do with anything. The simple fact is that Tesla isn't going to make more batteries than they can sell in their cars, so if they aren't integrating it into more than one model, yet, then there is no point in battery production exceeding the sales of that model. If that model is "overpriced", that means they are actually making more money on it than on the others. It may be true that the customer who buys that model may get shortchanged, but that's not a problem for Tesla. It's a problem for the buyer.
@@lepidoptera9337 agreed.. , because the material inside the battery to make it one.. is no more efficient than what they were already using.
Take a look at the range numbers in the models where the 4680 batteries are in play. The range has decreased instead of increased.
They stand to increase their profit margin by reducing the number of batteries from their size in the same or smaller space.
@@troublelessone7999 We shouldn't forget that Tesla also has a habit of restricting range by software. There is a good reason to do that initially: an artificially reduced range stresses the new batteries less, so if long term reliability issues should arise, they will be less severe and impact fewer customers (which avoids generating negative PR for Tesla). One has to wonder if some of that is going on here as well.
They will also have to tolerate some serious underutilization of the new battery production line for now because once they decide to put it in one of the updates of the better selling versions, they better have the battery manufacturing capacity available instantly to actually deliver or they will lose sales. So, yeah, a certain amount of production efficiency in the beginning is probably not even avoidable.
Everyone has a multiplier it's pretty safe to apply to the timescale on any promise they make. With me, I'm ashamed to say I'll usually triple my gut-feel guess on how long and how much effort a project will take before that guess makes it onto a piece of paper.
Elon seems to sit anywhere between 15x and never.
He's just winging it. Best listen to literally anyone else in Tesla. Simply brilliant bunch of engineers
A normal engineer multiplies their estimations by 4. Elon divides the estimations by 4.
@@monad_tcp If he was honest, he'd just say "sometime after I die"
Looks like the Model Y base now costs, 42990 exactly what you said it should cost
So should 4680 Model Y standard range needs to be avoided?
Take what these youtubers say with a grain of salt. I ordered a 4680 model y regardless for many reasons over the long range. I don’t care about having a 50 more miles as it doesn’t save much time over most road trips. The build quality and safety/sturdiness is better because of structural pack…and better battery tech is worth it.
@@FrenchyTube3 thank you so much, I feel good now about my order, picking my car tomorrow and was having second thought
@@Rpp92898 hell yeah congrats! What color did you end up getting? Lol I ordered mine 4 days ago and got my VIN already. Says it’ll take another 9 days max for delivery!
@@FrenchyTube3i got one from Inventory, white Model Y and price was too good to pass! Congrats to you too😃
@@FrenchyTube3 picked up my Model Y, its amazing and build quality is very nice! Much better than 2022 Y
Very nice information Good wark you Good video
Reducing cost of production does not have to mean cheaper cars. It makes sense to sell a now cheaper car at similar prices to before when demand is high.
Nice explanation. I was able to follow and understand it.
Didn't they just removed the 4680 model Y on their website?
isnt the anode positive?....it is illustrated as neg or am i seeing crooked
Nice work.
Thanks for good stuff.
Another great educational video.
as of 9/14, standard range model y is now removed of the Tesla US website.
musk's always optimistic about the timeline usually gets there in the end which is what matters. scaling is often the hard part
Actually no he doesn't. Look back at his life of BS and lies... not sure why so many people blindly follow him.
Full self driving hasn't worked yet. If they could do cross country trips like promised, they'd have marketing videos. They had to make hundreds of tries for their current FSD video and cut them together. They haven't managed a 35k model 3 except as a limited distribution stunt that has now been stopped. Tesla semi's are not competitive. Cyber truck doesn't use an exoskeleton. Their plants are less optimized than industry standard, they still haven't fixed build quality.
Almost no promise from Elon has actually been delivered. They get close enough and walk away.
That’s it, you updated us on what they said in March 😐. Thanks
Musk is known for his over-optimistic timelines. But usually, he achieves his goals - just not by his advertised schedule.
Yes. It can achieve anything as long as you can wait until.
Yeah, he's overly "optimistic" . Unfortunately for him, in the last couple of years the Chinese have been making huge leaps in battery tech AND can produce those batteries, Tesla even uses their batteries.
Difference here is that they actually lied. They said they were currently producing cells with these stats 3 years ago. They weren't then and they aren't now.
Such an unreasonable thing to say. Elon Musk has failed on far more of his promises than not.
Time also matters. Solving self driving in 50 years isn’t impressive. Solving it in 2019 would have been impressive.
Everyone would be fine if he missed timelines by even up to 50% (It'll be ready in 12 months but takes 18). What is frustrating is when he says FSD will be feature complete by 2019, yet four years later its still nowhere near complete! (Save it! Elon needs to drive for 45 minutes on V12 in any downtown metro area with zero or even 1 intervention before anyone can say its close, because driving mainly in the suburbs on well-marked streets doesn't pass muster!) The current excuse is they're "compute constrained", but they'll have 100x the compute power up and running by Oct 2024. At that time they'll be another reason it's still not ready and the Cult-bulls will forget all past failed projections and just roll over and lap up whatever the new "game changing" strategy is pushed that will actually solve it this time, just like they did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and soon 2024. It's actually fully understandable that FSD hasn't been solved. It's likely the hardest technical challenge ever attempted and the amount of edge cases are nearly limitless. What I don't understand is why Elon keeps predicting these ridiculous timelines. I think most people and investors would rather Tesla keep many of these projects under a Skunk Works type R&D department and only unveil them when they are literally go-to-market ready. Rant over... and as an investor, I will happily eat my words and admit I'm an idiot with maximum contrition if FSD is solved by year's end. PLEASE make it happen, Elon and the Tesla FSD team!
Not to take anything away from Tesla’s many accomplishments but. . most reputable OEMs won’t say things until some measure of confidence is built up regarding manufacturability. FSD, the 4680, and now the Optimus robot- all talked up way too early.
That’s some fine sleuthing amigo! I’m sure Tesla can pull it off ❤
Sale price isn't based on production price.
Tesla diversified with 18650, 2170, 4680, LFP and now LFP M3P. Most other manufacturers just one battery most lithium ION VS IRON. Lg Chem trying to switch over to LFP Also
well, they're obvioulsy late in the scaling. doesn't really disqualify the tech. it's been harder than predicted...
Predicted by whom? This is the first time I have seen this dry application process and I can tell you it will not work.
@@freeaccess5905 by themselves obviously
I worked there for almost a year everything is fine
How often did Tesla ever hit production schedule on time?
e.g. cybertruck Also 4680 is not intrinsic to "dry cell" development, if anything 4680 is ramping up production.
However, it does 'seem' like 4680 over 2170 were over hyped *until* if production can "reaches maximum efficiency" (Tesla still struggling since birth)
This completely ignores that they have a new factory in California pumping out massive amounts of cells for mega packs.
I would still get the 4,680 battery cells with my model Y, because it has less chance of combusting. And don’t worry, Tesla does a lot of early fine tuning that helps to eventually ramp up massively.
Sorry to disappoint you. They use the same flammable electrolyte
I will be impressed if the energy storage is 5x for less than 5x of the material used compared to the old battery technology.
Good video !!!
This really sets apart what Tesla is doing and what other car manufatures are doing.
Dont make batterys by bulk porduction.
Make them in a way for max storage. trash that and do it again.
Sandy Munro owes everyone an apology.
It's a good thing I have used toyotas to watch all the overpromising and delays.
i know this is the "tesla" space, but it would of been cool if you d made a video on aptera
your logic for the price difference is acutely wrong. The only production cost decrease is in the battery cells. The production cost of the remainder of the car has not changed. So if the price of the battery pack is 10k for example then a price reduction of 3k makes more sense. I dont see how they can decrease the production cost of the battery by 70% to lower the price by 7k+. Yet
i find it funny people thought tesla had a chance in hell of becoming some super battery producing company. its taken them 20 years to produce what normal car manufacturing companies produce per year, and thats thier actual speciality.
Batteries are in a constant state of improvements and changes. the 4680 battery is constantly changing and Tesla is not the only manufacturer. Panasonic and CATL are both making 4680 cells. Tesla and other battery manufacturers are always looking at battery chemistry and changing chemistry. Looking any battery manufactured today doesn't mean much because LFP batteries might gain popularity or sodium/ion or graphene or... The batteries being installed in cars in 2033 have probably not been designed yet. The secret is who is currently building EV's at a scale and at a profit and Tesla is the only manufacturer that has accomplished that feat so far. Tesla is building a great car right now and as batteries improve so will Ev's.
Panasonic and CATL may be making 4680 form factor cells, but are they using dry electrode tech? Are they using a tabless design? No, and probably not. Battery cells that look the same on the outside, may be very different indeed on the inside.
Now, it may be that Tesla will abandon its efforts at dry electrode tech. Something better and easier to produce may come along any time. As you say, EV battery tech is constantly changing and constantly improving.
So the Cybertruck will have 2170s most likely?
Everyone was adamant that the Cybertruck would have 4680s...
I remember elon said in a call right after the battery day that the dry electrode tech is hard and invited people to join tesla to help solve it.
@@slavko321 Elon was right.
Will 4680 last as long as LFP?
@6.25 100% and then 300% or did you really mean 100X and 300X ??? because they’re not the same thing.
4360 sized cells are daft for home or grid scale storeage. In the real world large prismatic cells are dominating.
Please give us a clear estimate graph of the 4680 production in Model Y packs per months for the last three years. To give us an idea if Tesla is on a curve to solve the problem. If they don't solve this their expansion numbers are lower. And it explain why the Cybertruck and the Semi are late.
First off, they couldn't make more batteries due to having complications with the supply chain, material availability, and problems associated with producing mass quantities of batteries. He even showed the graph where the production of battery has been going up each quarter or months. There is no point in making a semitruck when the battery isn't available in large quantities. That is just common sense. There is no point of hiring more workers when you are only making a few at a time. The cost associated with making a few vs many is vastly different depending on the number of vehicles produced in the same day, hour, and minute. Shortage of batteries is just one reason. Supply chain was another issue that they had to deal with. Without parts, you can't complete the vehicle in the production line. That is also another common sense.....I am sure there are other problems they had associated with developing a NEW Vehicle......
I don't buy Tesla had a problem on the supply issues of the batteries. They had a supply problem on the chips issue like everybody else. They are having problems on the fabrication of the batteries. If they don't show significant improvements then their vehicules production prediction are completely wrong.@@1flash3571
That's like asking what's gonna be the most popular car model in 20 years. Good luck tryna find that one out.
As investors say: "Past performance is not indicative of future results." Yeah, you can -- more or less -- predict ramping up manufacture of a certain tech, once the technical challenges have been solved. But quite clearly, from this very well-informed video, Tesla still faces many unresolved technical challenges. The various posts here claiming confidence that Tesla can solve all these challenges are just whistling in the dark. I certainly *hope* that Tesla can significantly ramp up 4680 cell production, but that's very far from guaranteed. This whole thing may be a massive fail, and may be scrapped for a type of battery cell easier to produce.
@@davidsooby9961 Isn't that why Tesla is using MULTIPLE types of battery sizes from multiple battery companies to build out their battery packs???? Also, Tesla is giving us on their progress on how fast or slow the progress is coming....Even if Tesla do not reach their goal, as long as they get close, shouldn't that be fine also?????
Why do they make different styles of batteries
The power is not critical but the range is!!!
The minute that I heard that Nickel would be missing in the new battery I was skeptical.
15 minute video for a single sentence. Half the battery can't be built due to a binding issue, who do i send the bill to for the other 14:45?
Why are these batteries cells so small? Would it not be more productive to make bigger batterie cells, this way the automobiles could have less of them and that would help with less points of failure.
It's about compromises. You essentially have to take all the parameters and come up with a min-max point. Go too big and some parameters start suffering (thermal would be one), go too small and your fixed losses start getting too high.
The problem is heat builds up inside a cell during use, and especially during fast charging (and fast discharging when the car accelerates in a jack-rabbit start). The larger the cell, the harder it is to dissipate heat.
For example, read up on Boeing's Dreamliner, and the production delays due to the fire hazard it had from using just a few large battery cells. (Google "Dreamliner battery fire hazard".)
Tesla's new tabless design for the cells promises less heat buildup, which allows them to make the 4680 cells significantly larger than the more common 18650 cells. But making *much* larger cells simply isn't practical or safe, at least not with today's battery tech.
So I've read a few comments, no one has mentioned the asian maker of batteries that will be making 4680 ones. I forget who, but they are coming online and will expand.