Freight Market in 2024: The Domino Effect Shaping Trucking Right Now Into 2024
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- Опубликовано: 1 июн 2024
- Well guys, the drama is just beginning in trucking. Carriers are leaving because this freight market (the way it is now) is unsurvivable, insurance companies are starting to put barriers for new authorities, some brokers are getting ready for a turnaround in mid 2024 and shippers are trying to figure out what to do next. I wonder how this will all pan out?
References:
www.freightwaves.com/news/rel...
www.freightwaves.com/news/as-...
www.joc.com/article/us-shippe...
www.joc.com/article/us-truckl...
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I've been a trucker for 30 years, and I don't think I've ever seen it this bad.
Yeah brother I’ve been a trucker for a little longer than you , and I also haven’t seen it this bad . I don’t think at least
you know what they say - when things are worse than they have ever been..... load the boat because the ride back up will be fun and quick
In my honest opinion...this issue is not as simple as overcapacity... the issue is ACTUALLY that theres an overcapacity of carriers that dont understand cost per mile and how sometimes it ISNT better to take a load because it "pays something at least"
There's too many great drivers that are terrible business owners in this market
100% agree
Exactly
Another factor to be added to the equation perhaps in the near future: JB HUNT and BNSF just announced a new partnership to take off the road between 8 and 11 million truck loads and put them on trains. This is about 53 feet domestic containers, not the imports from overseas. This potentially will have the biggest impact on independent trucking. That's why you see new wearhouses constantly being built no matter how is the economy doing. Trains take longer to deliver, but if you have more warehouse space, you can keep your inventory high and won't need a faster delivery. They also hope to use a better technology in order to optimize the supply chain for their costumers. A slower moving suply chain perhaps, but achieving the same results at much lower cost.
Always thought that from the current crisis, solutions will come that will change trucking.
The grade of drivers is hitting an all time low was try to fuel up at a pilot! truck stop. This particular one, you have to swing around their yard to get to the pumps! two or three truckers were trying to park it was a night mare!!! i waited for ten minutes and when i saw an opening i shot through!!! The guys they are putting on the road!!!! frustrated in the Midwest!!!!
Here is my 2 cents ! No matter if all the big players get more trucks or not,all of those trucks will NEVER be utilized at the same time. The turnover rate will be their biggest obstacle. You can build 50 houses on a property,but does it mean you will have 50 buyers all the time ?!?! Trucks do not hire people,company policies,pay,office staff & how they function do. Sometimes,that isn't even enough to keep a driver. Last point,there isn't a single Mega Carrier that can handle even a small percentage of the projected freight now,or in the future. So,my conclusion is that it may sound good to them,but the trucking industry is what it is. At the mercy of consumer spending !
I'm hoping to get to a day when Miranda starts announcing good news: rates growing, insurance is getting cheaper and interest rates are getting more affordable 😅
Нет, Миранда русская. Она никогда не увидела хорошие новости в жизни. ;)
What are you talking about? She’s Ukrainian fro Mariupol russia destroyed this city !!! F..k russia!!!
Yes, I am half Ukrainian half Georgian, not Russian. @silverjohn4319 I will let your comment slide this time. Next time I will block you. I have no sense of humor when it comes to this crap.
Trucking is very linear. Small changes don’t create bigger ones.
@@silverjohn4319 You have to be respectable... don't forget the good maners when talking to a lady. Miranda is trying to educate some of you guys, and she is getting more experienced with the time...
Shippers would love to move their own freight and become more "vertically intergated".
The problem they have is finding drivers for 20$ an hour
Over capacity is an issue because all the social media content creators that sounded the alarm. How to get your cdl, how to buy a truck, how to become a dispatcher, how to become a broker, I made $12k this week. That's right. Had not been for content creators, people would have kept doing what they were doing.
Wrong
thats one part, the other is fraudelent lease owner operators.
Exactly during the gold rush I doubt people went to town and told the people they found gold and where
Actually they did. That's how the rush started at sutter's mill. They went to town to brag about all the gold they found.
That just tells you low the barrier is to get started being an owner operator. If anybody can come off the street with no experience and spend a few weeks getting cdl and start running then rates will never grow. Only the niche trucking jobs are worth continuing
how does this channel only have 72 thousand subscribers? excellent information and market analysis in every video... thank you for what you do!
Everyone should become a owner operator, big carrier's won't have driver's to fill those trucks.
One of the best content in this industry Miss ! Please don’t stop !
Thank you for the update! You nice person and good luck this hard time!
Can't Thank you enough for sharing your research. Have a Fantastic weekend.
Very detailed information. Thanks Miranda. It helps immensely to be aware of all these things in trucking.
When confronted with a surge of 300% in shipping costs due to a 30-50% spike in fuel prices facilitated by the very entities responsible for transporting the fuel, businesses must recognize the discernment of their clientele. In response, strategic alternatives such as establishing an in-house fleet become compelling. Outsourcing logistics through major companies may entail a substantial annual expense of around $450,000 for a single driver and truck, inclusive of dispatch and office charges. In contrast, an in-house model involving a $50,000 dispatch, $48,000 leased truck, and $65,000 driver results in an annual expenditure of approximately $163,000. Factoring in benefits, a robust 401(k), and 4-6 weeks of paid time off brings the total to $200,000 per year.
This approach not only presents a substantial cost differential-$200,000 versus $450,000-but also allows for scalability, potentially leading to significant savings, especially when considering the option of purchasing rather than leasing trucks. Over a five-year span, the cumulative impact on fleet size and financial gains can be substantial, potentially amounting to savings in the hundreds of millions. It is imperative for businesses to evaluate the long-term repercussions of current industry practices, as these decisions not only impact their bottom line but contribute significantly to broader economic challenges, inflation, and the erosion of established partnerships and relationships cultivated over decades.
That’s sounds hopeful. $200,000 per truck. Company drivers for Walmart get paid over $100,000 a year. Dollar General drivers make the the same, and they have to unload the trailers, not every prospective driver wants to do that for $65,000. Don’t matter what benefits you give them, they won’t sign on because other fleets don’t pay that low. I feel turnover would be through the roof.
How much maintenance are you on the hook for with a leased truck? It might depend on the company and lease, but you’ll still have to worry about maintenance. No company driver wants to drive a piece of shit that won’t run. What about fuel? I didn’t see anything there about fuel. What about damaged product? Theft? You can’t file a claim, you have to cover it. You charge the driver and they’ll bounce right away.
And why did shippers make the change to outsourcing in the first place? Because running a maintenance shop, in-house dispatch, and all the peripheral requirements of a fleet were not cost effective when compared to outsourcing. They cannot escape the vicious circle.
@@debeacon Right! I remember when Walmart downsize their fleet & outsourced to GreatWide & I think Landstar got a piece of that action also. Then Swift took over & we knew that wasn't gonna last! Now Walmart is back up to full capacity with their own fleet & paying their driver well👍🏾 But that JB Hunt & railroad deal is gonna hurt the domestic trucking tremendously! Damn JB Hunt got sh-t everywhere!😡
Appreciate the business breakdown but you're missing some big costs in there like fuel and insurance. You also need at least 1 additional person, maybe part-time bc dispatch is usually too busy to do all of the admin tasks and the driver's certainly not going to do it. $65k for a driver is too low if you want em to be offloading, keeping the truck clean, etc. So I'd say take your $200k + 30K (extra PT staff) + 20k (extra driver pay) + $30k fuel (rough guess) + $24k (truck insurance) = $304K/yr. My question is, where did you get the $450k as the outsourcing amount? That seems way too high even w/ inflation. That's saying it costs almost $1 mill/yr just for 2 trucks
Thanks for the update.
Shippers are digging their own graves by offering unsustainable freight rates. They haven't learned a thing from 2021 when they were caught off guard after their cheap freight tactic on 2020. For non-asset brokers, time for your exit plan now and at least don't contract with shippers on low prices because carriers will ask for more next quarter and you will end up losing on every load you move
You really don't understand supply and demand, do you? Shippers are seeking the lowest rates they can get, because like everyone else, they have the same bad economic forces leaning on their profits. Now, this idea that you have that shippers are the ones setting the freight rates has no basis in fact. A shipper needs carriers as much as carriers need shippers, so if they insisted on setting unprofitable rates, then no one would carry their freight and they'd go out of business. As stated in the video, the over-capacity of freight carrying capacity - brought about by the lockdowns - is why the rates are so low. It's supply - which we have too much of - versus demand - which is falling due to a shaky economy teetering on the brink of recession. High supply + low demand = low freight rates.
@@juliancate7089 This is the part that you don't get it. Shippers are missing a big big opportunity to stabilize the market for a very long term so they never have to experience another boom cycle. All they do right now is short term profit causing to accelerate the loss of carriers in the market add that to some seasonal high demand, they will be doomed. Brokers are racing for the bottom by cutting each other and skim 50% of each load just to survive and pay old not paid invoices for their carriers because they used their 2021-2022 profits into expansion thinking that market rates will be so high for years to come. Too many idiots in the market at this point.
He is right that most shippers didn't learn a thing. Is supply and demand but it will swing back the other way and the shippers that treated me like crap will get the same. I have a list and a long memory.
@@stevenmiller6725 That's not rational Steve. And believe me, the shippers you plan to get revenge on, won't recognize that your quest for justice has even occurred, much less care. They'll just get someone else to carry their freight. But the most important thing to understand is that your attitude and emotionalism isn't rational. No wonder so many O/Os fail.
@@juliancate7089 So you're opinion is that even though they refuse to pay me a proper wage I need to treat them like a good customer. I say absolutely not. I have good customers and I take care of them. Bad customers I will work for when I need to and since they took advantage of the market conditions to screw me I will take advantage of market conditions and screw them when the opportunity arises. I cut some a break in 2021. Never again. Both shippers and brokers they either have short memories, or don't give a crap about me and would put me out of business if it saved them 100 bucks. Nothing irrational about that. I won't be able to screw them as bad as say Microsoft, Facebook, Verizon, or companies like that screw their customers but I will do what I can. Also note all the big trucking companies screw their customers as much as they think they can get away with, and their drivers, and their office staff, as do truck stop chains, truck repair shops, and pretty much everyone else in trucking. Wake up and smell the coffee.
You were talking about shipper and companies starting to ship their own freight and sending load to the spot market. Now 10 road express had that issue with USPS check it out.
Thankyou ! And, God Bless You ! 🙏😊❤
Finally subscribed great content
Tax time will crush many carriers
Have a great weekend !!
I was a driver for many years but now moving into dispatching hotshot loads for Driven dispatch. I really am learning a lot from your videos, Ty, and only wish we could see hotshot loads added to the comparisons?
Good Looking Lady that knows her Topic! Appreciate that. Subscribed 👍
Great video, thank you for the good information!
I agree with you 💯💯💯 Tooo much BS with all this youtuber that he made $7500 a week ....
As a company driver, it also implies we should hang on to our jobs best we can. I've kept in touch with recruiters and the job market is non-existent right now. Reefer and dry only. Cannot even find flatbed jobs with recruiters right now. If you've got a decent gig going on stick with it for now
This is scary . I just spent $5k to get my CDL. Then, I convinced my brother to buy a brand new hot shot rig. 🤦 I'm feeling like my plan was a failure.
@@mikiec734You better be prepared to take minimum time off when you have payments! It’s Better to save up a few years and buy all equipment cash then you have zero worries. I just bought new equipment 2.5 years ago 6 months left of payments remember to pay the tax man 25%.
Wow.. that’s ver scary what you did indeed. I wish u all the best. Please keep us updated
@@mikiec734You are already in it. So,push forward !.Be positive about it !.
need a flatbed job?
I don’t know the percentage but when you go shopping and observe places like Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Target, Walmart, etc. I guess they do your standard linehaul with contract carriers delivering resources to distribution centers. Sometimes spot carriers too if they have a lot.
And then store’s private fleet will deliver to the stores depending on the market and the area. Here in Chicago, a lot of mega carriers have those shorter final routes & deliver to stores. But it’s a combination of both.
You’re also going to find mega carrier terminals located next to giant retail distribution centers. So I don’t know if you want to call it collusion between the companies. Some shippers have multiple carriers working for them under contract. In Sterling IL, Schneider built a terminal next to a Walmart distribution center and they handle that whole region of stores. In Joliet IL, Dollar Tree distribution and Werner are there and they work together a lot. But there’s other carriers there like JB Hunt and CR England and many other shippers.
A lot of the times when you talk about tender rejections, I feel like they mostly occur in those areas like Omaha NE, Gary IN, Joliet IL where the mega carriers are stationed. I don’t know, I haven’t been paying attention all that much lately. I always think smaller spot carriers work best with small businesses and manufacturers. Especially in smaller markets. I don’t think it works much if everyone is looking in the same spot and eyeballing the load board, looking at the same load for hours waiting for better rates.
No trucking company builds terminal based of single distribution center. Those facilities used by carriers are part of distribution center and are part of the freight contract. When that carrier loses contract another carrier comes in occupying the same facility. Before Schindler it was swift and before swift it was England.
whu owns swiiff and england, of course walmart@@matusala8322
Very thorough analysis!
Putting the pieces of the puzzle together and sounds like a poop storm. Heed the info and get with a carrier that will help you stay above water. As always Miranda thank you!
Thanks
Great video. Thanks for all the info gives us alot to think about. Sounds like rough roads ahead . The auto transport markit is not doing any better.
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Great video!
Sounds like the big shipper fleets would affect vans and reefers the most. What do you see the future holding for flatbeds, lowboys, and RGNs
Thank you…
Hello Ms Miranda 🎉 blessing
Great video
Hello, would it be better to look for a company driver position?especially recently acquiring CDL ?
You do a great job
As soon as enough capacity leaves it will be flooded again soon as the market recovers
Seems to be the trend.
There are carriers like JBHunt and Landstar that are also pulling in Owner Ops from the spot market via lease on opportunities. I think this is going to become the future of owner ops who might fall prey to the new challenges of insurance. It also minimizes the effect volume shortages may have on an Owner Op by keeping within the markets of the company that they are leased on to. These larger carriers will keep their contracts by absorbing smaller carriers. Which will make things very interesting for spot market loyalists. However, I can't say if that interesting will be good or bad.
Walmart has 12000 truck.but there picking there waters loads with there long haul trucks in california fuel $ 6 gallon and workmen Comp insurance and Truck insurance won't last bad time to open trucking business in California
Good theories.
Hello i am new to 1 box truck I am so confused now hopefully 🤞 not to lose! I am trying so hard to get loads ! What do you recommend! As a beginner!! Thank you 🙏
First quarter rate always go down thing is the last quarter of 23 rate went down drastically, so I can't imagine what will happen in first quarter 24 .
Could you make a video On what's better mileage pay or hourly pay... I live in Las Vegas
am mileage pay which I hate because I go to California a lot. And I have to deal with the traffic sitting in traffic for free... I am a shuttle driver..
about 20% of my spot market volume is delivered to large shippers who have their own trucks. this time of year it is higher...
We are getting back to pre-Covid numbers. So much freight brought on a lot of new drivers. Covid's over, and too many drivers. Nothing is crashing, just normalizing. The surplus drivers will have to find other jobs....until the next pandemic.
subscribed
When the consumer has less purchasing power than there is little need to fill the market with products. In the end it is the consumer who drives every market. Zero consumer zero need for anything.
BACK ON Heavy Haul,and Off of Dry Van.Still Running!
You gotta love the Drama
If You are an Owner Operator or small fleet running only solo drivers you will be at a disadvantage going forward unless you are doing specialized freight. It will be even worse when the mandatory speed limiters go into effect in the future. It will be the insurance companies that mandate limiters before the government.
Hey LETTTTTSSSS GOOOOOO
THANKS
They are trying 2 get rid of the small guys so they can control things better.
Walmart may start pulling General Freight instead of deadheading as much for back hauls .
Literally made more on Doordash last week than on percentage the week before…not even kidding you
nice
For shippers to expand their Fleet or to . The transport for themselves is not a cost-effective as you think .
Oops...
Hello Miranda !
I believe Thom is a less common variation of Tom, both nicknames for someone with the name Thomas.
I kind of strongly agree with the carriers building up their own freight infrastructure, though think they have planning that for 2-3 years now.
Maersk
I agree ☝️
What this tells me is that with shippers enlarging their fleets and using carriers less in the future there will be less miles per week for drivers working for carriers and better more stable driver pay will actually be those drivers who work for companies like walmart,target,ect. And driving for those companies may be the best plan for drivers looking for job security and reliable pay.
Hey. How are U Doing!? Like Ur Video and Information. Thanks Much for ALL U DO!! Can U Help Me to Understand , which the Few Videos I Have Watched Not Hear Mention, How is it on National News they Have Said Unemployment is Good, Low Percentage, Many Persons ARE WORKING/EMPLOYED but U Have Said Few Times that Load Volume is LOW!?? How Can There Be Low Load Volume when Persons are Working Producing ITEMS/PRODUCT to Be SHIPPED!!!? Not Make Sense to Me!! MORE PERSONS WORKING to Make PRODUCT , would Think be PLENTY of LOAD VOLUME!!!! Oo Well. Can Do Video on it?? Do What U Love, Love What U Do! Take Care Amigo 😇😍💪😎
Over capacity is part of it. But its a domino from shippers lowering costs to brokers who then repost loads for even less than what shipper is being charged and the. Other brokers take to same cheap loads and post them again for even less. Ie: schnieder charges shipper $5/m to move a load, then posts that load to dat for $3/m, third party broker such as tql grabs that load and reposts to dat again for $2/m.
Sounds like you need to contract with Schneider directly.
@@supertruckertom i dont contract with anyone. I just just those companies as an example
I thought brokers had to find their own load
These large shippers that are increasing their fleets that might be a good idea, but you have to consider if you have 10,000 truck drivers how many of those truck drivers are very safe drivers and how many of those are decent drivers and then what brings up the rear is how many of them are just absolutely horrible drivers because it’s a horrible drivers that is going to throw a monkey wrench into their plans
2010 PRBT 386 Day Cab
Factory ISX Re-POWERED with
39k mi for ONLY $ 55,000 !!!
A second truck same same,
15.5k mi for ONLY $65,000 !!!
INCREDIBLE what’s available !!
Saw it on Comm Tk Trdr last week..
I watch Her in 2X speed Except for the first 40 seconds And her cute little "let's go"
..sigh...
You could work for freightwaves.
Will 2024 be a good year to invest in freight companies? If so, what one is your favourite? I am looking at Expeditors International
How overcapacity is possible when they say truck driver shortage is major cause of supply chain disruption?
The mainstream media also say the economy is still strong and unemployment rate still low. But all the logistics industry the numbers stat look like crap now ( air, oversea and ground ). And even oil price sinking while OPEC keep cutting oil production every month. USA GDP link to oil consumption and oil price. Which all conclude our economy looks terrible right now. After all that you still believe the info that main stream media throw at you ?
It's my fault. I tripped over the extension cord.
Miranda is Trucker bae and we would be all lost without her
👏👏
thanks Miranda lots of loves
I know trucking is bad right now, but is it bad idea to get in right now? I want to do that but I am afraid to make that move.
Play the lottery
Hell no lol
I’m not gonna even bother to answer on this comment
If you have enough money to pay cash for all your equipment and pay all your bills for at least the next 18 months and run casually just to get experience then by all means. Outside of that you would have a better ROI doing something else. I could potentially have 3 sets of trucks/trailers running right now. It am only running the one I drive myself and at that I’m only running a few loads a month just to keep my current customers remembering who I am and keeping my insurances and recurring bills paid. All my equipment is paid off as well as all personal property including home and it’s still not worth me running but for the reasons stated. I’m irritated at my depreciating my 2019 Pete with few miles I’m putting on it for these rates but also need to keep my feet in the doors I have for when it all flips around.
I will give you a really valuable advise. Don't don't don't. The only thing you can do if you want to get into trucking sometime in the future and have some spare cash is to buy a good truck now for very cheap price and don't activate your MC until market recovers
ELD is a violation of the American Constitution... about freedom and the right to work... It is also necessary to prohibit payment for miles traveled... payment for labor is only hourly! and also the retirement of drivers at 55 years old!!! if he has at least 20 years of experience as a driver...
You missed it! The reason for over capacity is that manufacturing has crashed due to the high cost of energy. FJB
I dont know why this week been so bad for the stepdeck
Yes. This definetly the case. Im OTR. I'm switching to RGN Monday.
@superrookie1554 man I have think about this but now rgn it's really bad you will only find like 6 loads on the load board paying what a stepdeck deck was making 4 weeks ago you have way more options with a step
Depends on your company. My dispatch having slightly better luck with RGN. Always kept my upper deck clear for partials. Stepdeck my dispatch haven't been able to get partials in months. Small buisnesses hurting.
@superrookie1554 I do my own dispatch been good but just this week was bad and yea I never put a partial on my top deck never really look for them alot of times they take me out my ways that's why
I don’t understand the human minds . We complain about the trucking industry, and how they treat us as animals but when someone is trying to stop that suffering by cutting off drivers, we still complaining. Is like accepting poison can kill you but you still want to drink it.
FYI CNN Business Maersk Container Shipping is Laying of 10k.
It takes me $2 to survive. It takes a diaper head 50 cents to survive. How do you compete with that?
Now im feeling the hit of brokers getting out of buissnes and being not factorable , what a mess OMG , i hope infulencers dont ruin the market again when this pick back up if it does
Is it true that we're only receiving half of the capacity that we once did a year ago from China as goods into USA shipping yard at all of the major ports?
Yes, it is true that the United States is currently receiving only about half of the capacity that it once did a year ago from China as goods into US shipping yards at all of the major ports. This is due to a number of factors, including:
Port congestion: The major US ports are experiencing record levels of congestion, which is making it difficult to unload ships and move goods quickly.
Reduced shipping capacity: Many shipping companies have reduced their capacity to the US in response to the port congestion and other challenges.
Increased demand: The demand for goods from China has remained high, even as shipping capacity has decreased.
This combination of factors has led to a significant backlog of goods at US ports, which is causing delays and disruptions for businesses and consumers.
Here are some additional details on the current state of shipping from China to the US:
According to the National Retail Federation, the average time it takes to ship a container from China to the US has increased from 40 days in 2020 to 70 days in 2023.
The cost of shipping a container from China to the US has also increased significantly, from around $2,000 in 2020 to around $10,000 in 2023.
The port congestion situation in the US is expected to continue through the end of 2023 and possibly into 2024.
The US government and the shipping industry are taking steps to address these challenges, but it is likely that the current situation will continue to have a significant impact on businesses and consumers for some time to come.
I believe a report I saw lsat night is that the CCP is off by roughly 20% right now, in regards to shipped goods. Then they are having their own financial issues internally. Time to de-couple.
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BOTTOM LINE: THE CARRIERS TAKE THE CHEAP-$HIT LOADS AND THEREFORE SUPPORT THIS LONG HORRID TREND!! IF ALL CARRIERS WOULD *STOP* ACCEPTING CHEAP-$HIT LOADS, THEY WOULD HAVE TO RAISE THE RATE TO MOVE THE LOADS!! SIMPLE SOLUTION----
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Good time to quit the industry
Good Evening,
The general consensus among most and what is talked about most is over capacity, well I’m not buying it, why?
I think what should be talked more is policy or the lack of good stable economic policy, we wouldn’t be in this position if we had policy that was good for both the consumer and businesses nationwide.
It is also very smart of the big shippers and corporations in general to use for example (over capacity) as a talking point; this allows for distraction of what the real issues are.
You see if we all believe that over capacity is an issue currently, my question is what happens when better economic times or policies change? We all know the answer, the consumer buys more and we will need more capacity, so again is this really an over capacity issue or folks trying to put lipstick on a big for now.
I call bs (not with you Miranda) but with folks trying to control a weak narrative.
The industry was regulated prior to 1980 for many reasons, I believe in free market capitalism, but crony capitalism and deregulation are some big narratives I don’t hear many people talking about.
The industry needs oversight, like we had prior to deregulation. This is nothing but a free for all, everyone is welcome! And look what happened, the industry is plagued with fraud, fly by night outfits, shady brokers, over capacity, foreign influence, etc., the list goes on and on. The collapse of the industry under these conditions was and is inevitable.
Governments fault
PSA. DON'T DRIVE TRUCK KIDS. SEVERELY UNPAID. DEADEND JOB
Stay tuned for the big flush..
It’s the government’s fault.
Now we know who at fault 😂😂😂 they are taking half
It's the FBI's fault.
Inflation for food and housing is the main cause of
That's one perspective people are ignoring, the purchasing power of a majority of Americans has dropped significantly, and people can't buy the Volume of goods as before, in return this is affecting the amount of goods to be moved around.
Historical economic models show the recession starting in feb of 24. That could change. These people using legit forecast
it all revolves around the purchasing power of the citizenry. how was trucking around the housing mortgage crisis.
Zip to zip code bad for driver………
The Problem is President Biden.