As always, Dave, good show. I thought Mr Llanes was an excellent guest. He covered a lot very quickly. I wish you could have him on more often. Thank you.
Interesting you came up with this level... i was looking at a worse case scenario of SPY 286.64 which was a pretty important area back in late 2019 all the way into summer of 2020. both before and after the covid crash.... from what i can observe, there are still at least 4 open gaps down to that area... seems to coincide with your s&p area quite nicely.... thanks again David for the great insight and analysis.
great show David. liked your guest from Denver........struggle is now between technical and fundamental analyses. per your guest, TA suggested 3525 as low whereas fundamental suggested spx low at 2735.......some experts are saying this downturn is mother of all bears as it is encomassing inflation , bubbles , food shrtage and war. if so, it will take several years for the market to recoup but the question is that if 2735 low target, we have lot more downside........stay safe
We’re at 3850 now, plenty more downside to go with everything going on and yet to come. Think little over a month ago when Dave mentioned 3850 it sounded good to me, I was favoring 3615 then, but now could argue for 3150 the way things are going.
@@ruthlessluder I would agree time is part of the equation, let’s see where we are in 6 months now that the punch bowl has been taken away and the bill is due.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding your reasoning, but wouldn’t buying things that are outperforming the SP500 mean that your buying things at recent highs? Like the time to buy energy was way back in November 2021. Why would I buy OXY in the mid to high $60s after it has run nearly 100 percent?
The highest RS stocks will NOT be the best stocks coming out of a bear market. The highest RS stocks in a bear market are where investors (especially institutional and funds) are hiding out. Usually low beta, low growth stocks; utilities, staples, healthcare etc.. History shows that the best stocks coming out of a bear market are high growth stocks that still have their long term growth intact but have over shot to the downside. Generally, these stocks have extremely low RS at the end of a bear market.
So whatever happened to SPX 3850, which was the downside target you set for a long time? Now you're setting the target lower. So when will you get back in? Aren't you worried you might miss the final rally?
We hit 3858 last week, so that target has already been met. Now it's time to set a new target based on how the charts are looking now. That's how targets work, you set one, then if it gets hit you re-assess the situation and set a new one.
Reach the target? Reassess conditions. Trying to pick the bottom is ridiculously imprecise. I'm happy waiting for a bottom to occur and then rotating in! D
As always, Dave, good show. I thought Mr Llanes was an excellent guest. He covered a lot very quickly. I wish you could have him on more often. Thank you.
Louis is solid, and we will have him back for sure! D
Thanks for putting on a good show everyday.
It's fun to do the show Bill, and we have a great team making it happen. D
Interesting you came up with this level... i was looking at a worse case scenario of SPY 286.64 which was a pretty important area back in late 2019 all the way into summer of 2020. both before and after the covid crash.... from what i can observe, there are still at least 4 open gaps down to that area... seems to coincide with your s&p area quite nicely.... thanks again David for the great insight and analysis.
great show David. liked your guest from Denver........struggle is now between technical and fundamental analyses. per your guest, TA suggested 3525 as low whereas fundamental suggested spx low at 2735.......some experts are saying this downturn is mother of all bears as it is encomassing inflation , bubbles , food shrtage and war. if so, it will take several years for the market to recoup but the question is that if 2735 low target, we have lot more downside........stay safe
Likely scenario? Probably not. Possible scenario? Absolutely! D
We’re at 3850 now, plenty more downside to go with everything going on and yet to come. Think little over a month ago when Dave mentioned 3850 it sounded good to me, I was favoring 3615 then, but now could argue for 3150 the way things are going.
great show David.Thank you!
Cheers Vasilis. καλό Σαββατοκύριακο! D
I was thinking 2300 to retest the covid lows. In my mind it was all FED induced so we need to go back there to build a true base. What do I know 🙂
Nah, time also corrects. It has been over two years. I'd say pre-covid high is a fair target.
@@ruthlessluder I would agree time is part of the equation, let’s see where we are in 6 months now that the punch bowl has been taken away and the bill is due.
Much of 2020-2021 driven by super accommodative Fed. Now that has changed.....? D
Maybe I’m misunderstanding your reasoning, but wouldn’t buying things that are outperforming the SP500 mean that your buying things at recent highs? Like the time to buy energy was way back in November 2021. Why would I buy OXY in the mid to high $60s after it has run nearly 100 percent?
Is S&P will reach the bottom at 2850?
My guest Louis made the case for that based on valuations and a recession. Made me think..... D
“When yon stop asking me, that’s the time to buy”…. Lol
One of my favorite stories from the 1974 market low! D
The highest RS stocks will NOT be the best stocks coming out of a bear market. The highest RS stocks in a bear market are where investors (especially institutional and funds) are hiding out. Usually low beta, low growth stocks; utilities, staples, healthcare etc.. History shows that the best stocks coming out of a bear market are high growth stocks that still have their long term growth intact but have over shot to the downside. Generally, these stocks have extremely low RS at the end of a bear market.
@@louisllanes7637 My bad. I listened again and you are right. That makes sense. Thanks for the video and your input.
Brilliant thanks
Cheers BS and thanks for watching D
Lmao okay people are WAY too beared up now
Still not the bearishness I've seen in previous bear market phases! D
So whatever happened to SPX 3850, which was the downside target you set for a long time? Now you're setting the target lower. So when will you get back in? Aren't you worried you might miss the final rally?
We hit 3858 last week, so that target has already been met. Now it's time to set a new target based on how the charts are looking now. That's how targets work, you set one, then if it gets hit you re-assess the situation and set a new one.
Reach the target? Reassess conditions. Trying to pick the bottom is ridiculously imprecise. I'm happy waiting for a bottom to occur and then rotating in! D
Aapl chart gap 11%
I don't follow all of your acronyms... but AAPL < $100 would be quite the haircut! D
1500, triple top from 2000 and 2007. It is needed
Yikes. Just, yikes. D
Is it just me, or did the slated appearance of Marc Chaikin not happen this week? @StockCharts
Unfortunately there were technical issues with Marc's appearance. Stay tuned - he'll be on a future show.
@@StockChartsTV Thanks for the response.