it's simple they make about over 1,6 billion in free cash flow . About 2% long term growth. Discount rate at 8% . You get a price of 1,6 billion / (8%-2%) = 26.6 billion market cap divide it by 478 million share. You have a price 55-56, for 10% 41-42 price
Two major issues with ADM: 1. They are one of those businesses that everything looks great when we get to EBITDA, but somehow very little EBITDA is converted to actual cash. Year after year, they find ways to make cash evaporate. 2. RFK Jr is going to be head of the FDA and he has been pretty clear that ultra-processed food is his top priority, and that might make ADM his #1 enemy.
You are lacking long-term vision, looking at single-quarter ROIC is not a great indicator of future returns... From 2014 to now ROIC has been going between 5% and 13% - it is all about the cycle
I am watching again this video, as I have been following ADM a few months back (after watching another one of your videos). In this case particularly, I'm interested in buying around the 40s, so I'll have to wait to see if it drops further. Related to this and the agricultural play (if you could call it that), I've also been following BIOX, an argentine company that produces drought resistant seeds. I would love to hear your thoughts if this catches your interest. Thanks from Argentina!
I have a question on an insight I had which I can't decide is stupid or makes sense. I copied my comment from another video: I’ve started a small position in ADM to track it, but I’m mostly invested in emerging markets with a focus on the Indo-Pacific region, targeting economic expansion and increased internet-penetration for industries like retail and tech as a catalyst for investment-returns. However, I figured that with food companies this logic doesn’t fully apply. Food demand is inelastic. People don’t eat twice as much just because their income doubles. This means that for food companies, economic expansion is less of a growth driver compared to other sectors. Instead, the weight and strength of the currency in the market they operate in becomes far more important for profitability, as higher currency values in developed markets allow for greater pricing power and stability. Since Western consumers pay higher prices for food, even though per-person demand is fairly constant worldwide, Western food markets offer the best exposure for investing in the food industry.
If it falls even more, some Jan 2027 LEAPS calls may be interesting as a leveraged play on inflation and the food cycle reverting... sorry for the degeneracy...
Thanks for the video 🙏 SMCI is fown quite a lot. Is it worth adding it to a portfolio or wait once the news clear up about their finicial situation? Thanks
🗽ADM is VERY CYCLICAL. With the pandemic-crash they corrected in total 50%, after that ADM made +240% and now they corrected again by 50%. 50% corrections are normal for ADM. .
Hi Mr Carlin. Maybe you could check ANDE, a similar stock. It dropped after a positive earnings today. It seems undervalued with DCF and Graham's original formula. Thanks for this video!
Thanks Sven! I’m curious whether we should better wait on a price rebound? Currently it looks like a downward movement which seems to not catch a bottom yet.
Two commodities that will likely do very well over the next decades: 1. Metals (hyped) 2. Food (not hyped) Doubled my position today. Soybean, wheat and corn are all cheaper now than pre-covid, adjusted for inflation. Might be a bit too early but for a sector im strategically interested in for the long-term I dont want to risk missing the bottom.
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $560K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategies ... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
Something is fishy with them, after almost one year, they still have not clarified the accounting issues, culminating recently in the Q3 presentation when they found issues during the conference call and had to delay the report, that is very concerning to say the least. Any thoughts on this? Thanks
@@Value-Investing but it is lasting over a year, why the delay and secrecy? do you have a precedent when this happened? Usually things like this are cleared fast with an auditor's note or press release. To delay this for a year is very strange, smells like a fraud to me. Unfortunately this is the red flag that keeps me from starting a position. Thanks for the answer
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 and first half of this year with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market
*''TRUDY ELIZABETH STOUFFER’'* a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her
Sven always has worthwhile insights. Thanks for your videos, Sven. As always, when I am considering a new stock purchase (I've never owned ADM) I ask myself, over 1, 5 and 10 years, would I have been better off just putting that money into an S&P500 index fund? If the answer is yes, then I ask myself, has anything recently changed with this company to make me think it will perform any differently in coming years, such as a management change, a change in its industry, etc.? If there is a concrete reason to think its performance is going to change then I will consider it. Otherwise, I expect that even if its price now appears low, that price reflects its real value, and the market has done its job. So, has anything at ADM changed that would lead us to expect its performance to change?
they quadrupled earnings in the last two decades while always paying a nice dividend, that has also been growing - as for the stock, you need to look across the cycles of exuberance and panic
been watching you for a while Sven, but If I may levy some criticism on your style of analysis. You seem to always miss the Macro and/or geopolitical picture. As you failed to do with $BABA, it is important to understand the political landscape or you will get cooked. In regards to $ADM, the Trump admin is going to retool the FDA with RFK Jr. meaning the future is very much in flux for Food and Pharma. You should be lowering $ADM on your matrix to reflect this uncertainty.
Long term portfolio Sven? You are not a long term holder. I think max one year holding period you are. As stock go up you immediately sell, like Micheal Burry.
it's simple they make about over 1,6 billion in free cash flow . About 2% long term growth. Discount rate at 8% . You get a price of 1,6 billion / (8%-2%) = 26.6 billion market cap divide it by 478 million share. You have a price 55-56, for 10% 41-42 price
Sven, your channel is one of the best there is. Many thanks for sharing your amazing content. Watching almost every day. 🎉
Thank you for video. What about Rubis?
Thank you for the reminder not on the stock but the preservation of money over decades. You are appreciated
4:55 OK. Updating the alert. Wake up Sven when it reaches $40.
Two major issues with ADM: 1. They are one of those businesses that everything looks great when we get to EBITDA, but somehow very little EBITDA is converted to actual cash. Year after year, they find ways to make cash evaporate. 2. RFK Jr is going to be head of the FDA and he has been pretty clear that ultra-processed food is his top priority, and that might make ADM his #1 enemy.
I want this now. Thanks for video
A 4% yielding company with historically 10% increases is a good deal. Usually the double digit increasers are yielding 1-2%.
Should we ignore their horrible ROIC and ROCE numbers? They seem to be struggling to find any great return in their operations.
Sven's only metric is PE. Very lazy.
He is only interested in commodity producers/businesses and china risk.
Interesting
You are lacking long-term vision, looking at single-quarter ROIC is not a great indicator of future returns... From 2014 to now ROIC has been going between 5% and 13% - it is all about the cycle
@@mikkelhansen3714 good input thanks
Can we have an update on Rubis?
Omg you have bought Rubis ? it's funny because in France, we know all it's a bs stock lol
Check rubis too. Is very low now
Thank you sven!
Over the last decade they delivered 5,6% return
Hi Sven, are you concerned about their debt levels?
"we are still going to need potatoes, not artificial intelligence to eat." 😅. $45 is long term trend line support.
Thanks Sven! and about Celanese? is falling 25% today
Because the dividend will be cut starting 2025 I believe
@@danielkiss2067 the dividend has already been cut but it is a temporary measure to increase cash, seems like a good decision to me
An emergency video!!! Thanks!!
Take a hike 😂 good one, might need to have a look at adm
:-)
I am watching again this video, as I have been following ADM a few months back (after watching another one of your videos). In this case particularly, I'm interested in buying around the 40s, so I'll have to wait to see if it drops further. Related to this and the agricultural play (if you could call it that), I've also been following BIOX, an argentine company that produces drought resistant seeds. I would love to hear your thoughts if this catches your interest. Thanks from Argentina!
I have a question on an insight I had which I can't decide is stupid or makes sense. I copied my comment from another video:
I’ve started a small position in ADM to track it, but I’m mostly invested in emerging markets with a focus on the Indo-Pacific region, targeting economic expansion and increased internet-penetration for industries like retail and tech as a catalyst for investment-returns.
However, I figured that with food companies this logic doesn’t fully apply. Food demand is inelastic. People don’t eat twice as much just because their income doubles. This means that for food companies, economic expansion is less of a growth driver compared to other sectors.
Instead, the weight and strength of the currency in the market they operate in becomes far more important for profitability, as higher currency values in developed markets allow for greater pricing power and stability. Since Western consumers pay higher prices for food, even though per-person demand is fairly constant worldwide, Western food markets offer the best exposure for investing in the food industry.
Thank you Sven!
Another great suggestion!
Might it be worth waiting until tax loss selling is over?
Would love to see a video on Huntington Ingalls
This seems like an odd recommendation/conclusion when we aren't sure if we can trust their accounting.
Dr Sven, can you share your thoughts on hii stock (defense) after its recent price drop?
If it falls even more, some Jan 2027 LEAPS calls may be interesting as a leveraged play on inflation and the food cycle reverting... sorry for the degeneracy...
Hello, thanks for the content! It seems like they have a low margin. Is not it a problem? Or it is typical for the food business?
What's your view on CE
Excellent Sven.
Very good indeed. I predict the stock will go to $40. Good investment. Lots of good value for money. At $50. At $40.
At 35.66! 😅
From ta perspective(weekly rsi divergence and sitting at monthly 200ema), it presents a very good buying opportunity.
I love the opportunity to average down further with ADM!
:-)
Can you please compare ADM to Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)?
Can you look at match group?
not my kind of business :(
Sven please do Celanese asap!
What do you think about “guess?” Stock?
what is your view on CME group?
Hi Sven, still holding acomo?
Very semantical about what a "stock pick" is.
I noticed the same.
Nice business, but does it have any moat? I think it is a competitive basic business, isn't it?
Thanks for the video 🙏 SMCI is fown quite a lot. Is it worth adding it to a portfolio or wait once the news clear up about their finicial situation? Thanks
🗽ADM is VERY CYCLICAL. With the pandemic-crash they corrected in total 50%, after that ADM made +240% and now they corrected again by 50%. 50% corrections are normal for ADM.
.
Long term buy and hold. I got it at $50 paying 4% dividend. Yum.
Sven, is Nestle's decline also mostly due to the downward trending food cycle or are there any home-made issues?
Their debt has doubled over the past five years.
competition and brand issues ruclips.net/video/gvDD-m3wRUQ/видео.html
Thanks for the update. My valuation is: 75 - 19 (net debt) = 56 USD/share. So undervalued. But not enough. I'll have to pass.
What is 75? Thanks
@@dalfap2787 IV in the form of EPS
I am courious what you think about Goeasy stock (Canada)
Pls do video regarding RUBIS. Is it a still buy?
Why would I invest in ADM over Bunge Global stock?
ADM has 30 years of dividend growth, BG only 3.
Hi Mr Carlin. Maybe you could check ANDE, a similar stock. It dropped after a positive earnings today. It seems undervalued with DCF and Graham's original formula. Thanks for this video!
Is their profit margin always that low?
Hey Sven from Hungary! Can you make a video about Synchronoss Technologies? :) It sold off 99,97% in the last 10 years.
I'll start looking at it at $42.
With a 10yr tenor only! Sven..
Thanks Sven! I’m curious whether we should better wait on a price rebound? Currently it looks like a downward movement which seems to not catch a bottom yet.
It's very difficult to catch a bottom, because also in the first counter-movement, it could be a bull-trap.
.
@ valid point
do you have like a google portfolio that tracks your advices with fake purchases ? It could be nice
Two commodities that will likely do very well over the next decades:
1. Metals (hyped)
2. Food (not hyped)
Doubled my position today.
Soybean, wheat and corn are all cheaper now than pre-covid, adjusted for inflation. Might be a bit too early but for a sector im strategically interested in for the long-term I dont want to risk missing the bottom.
I have calculated the upside over the long term as approximately +80% (long - term).
Please analyse Remy Cointreau
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. Hence what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $560K for sometime now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategies ... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.
Interested now.
Sven Carlin quoting Warren Buffet quoting Benjamin Graham 😂
Something is fishy with them, after almost one year, they still have not clarified the accounting issues, culminating recently in the Q3 presentation when they found issues during the conference call and had to delay the report, that is very concerning to say the least. Any thoughts on this? Thanks
we will see over time, the things should not be material as we discussed in the past
@@Value-Investing but it is lasting over a year, why the delay and secrecy? do you have a precedent when this happened? Usually things like this are cleared fast with an auditor's note or press release. To delay this for a year is very strange, smells like a fraud to me. Unfortunately this is the red flag that keeps me from starting a position. Thanks for the answer
You've done a smarter job than this channel clown. he kept recommending ADM shares on this channel from very high prices.
Awful “value” stocks, it’s a decade that they’re underperforming the S&P500
None of this ADM nonsense would have happened if they put 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 in their investor presentations.
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 and first half of this year with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
*''TRUDY ELIZABETH STOUFFER’'* a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her
Sven always has worthwhile insights. Thanks for your videos, Sven.
As always, when I am considering a new stock purchase (I've never owned ADM) I ask myself, over 1, 5 and 10 years, would I have been better off just putting that money into an S&P500 index fund? If the answer is yes, then I ask myself, has anything recently changed with this company to make me think it will perform any differently in coming years, such as a management change, a change in its industry, etc.? If there is a concrete reason to think its performance is going to change then I will consider it. Otherwise, I expect that even if its price now appears low, that price reflects its real value, and the market has done its job.
So, has anything at ADM changed that would lead us to expect its performance to change?
they quadrupled earnings in the last two decades while always paying a nice dividend, that has also been growing - as for the stock, you need to look across the cycles of exuberance and panic
How do you think a Trump win will affect stocks like BABA, TSM, BYDDF?
👍🏻
Wait till 39
The 5 G,s..Robert Kyosakis investment criteria I’ve found very helpful in stock categories ,
Gold, Ground , Guns, Gasoline, Grub ( Food)
been watching you for a while Sven, but If I may levy some criticism on your style of analysis. You seem to always miss the Macro and/or geopolitical picture. As you failed to do with $BABA, it is important to understand the political landscape or you will get cooked. In regards to $ADM, the Trump admin is going to retool the FDA with RFK Jr. meaning the future is very much in flux for Food and Pharma. You should be lowering $ADM on your matrix to reflect this uncertainty.
thanks for the good points!
8% tank today in a booming market.
ADM is a falling knife.
Value investing doesn’t mean buying mediocre companies like ADM.
Long term portfolio Sven? You are not a long term holder. I think max one year holding period you are. As stock go up you immediately sell, like Micheal Burry.