Working in the chemical sector, making the basic compounds that eventually go into insulation, carbumpers and dashboards. We are not in a good place right now. Chemical company shareprices like BASF or DOW are a great indicator for the health of the economy and specific sectors like building materials and the car industry. Everything starts with chemicals.
BASF should get a boost once the Ukraine war stops and hopefully the Russian gas starts flowing to Germany. I bet their shares will climb at least 30 percent
@@jancerny5614 Stellantis makes some of the worst vehicles. For example, Jeep vehicles are sitting in dealerships collecting dust, because no one wants to buy these overpriced and piles of junk. There are plenty of RUclips videos on the subject. I would not be surprised if they are discountinued a few years from now. You can't simply look at the financials. You have to see what's happening on the ground.
I learned that we should avoid cyclical companies, especially autos, when the PE ratios look very cheap, and instead buy when the earnings dry up (in a recession) and the PE ratios are very high or even negative. When they look expensive, they are usually cheap, and vice versa. The stock price will follow the earnings. I agree with you Sven, it's best to avoid this sector.
Car companies are the best example for buying promises and nothing substantial. Total change in the sector right now and noone knows the outcome. No moat and many new competitors in the last years vs the old companies.
@@Value-Investingrubis makes money hand over fist in an oil contango environment, because that’s when storing oil makes you money. Right now we are backwardation however, so i don’t think their business will be doing GREAT over the next months.
Tesla is the only EV company that will survive because of the pace of their innovation and leadership. However, it is very expensive atm. I think it may drop below 100 and might be a time to scoop!
Market cap is very different to enterprise value for carmakers, they have so much debt. If the PE is 3 the price to enterprise value might be 6. PE by itself doesn’t mean anything
But that is what most people look at when deciding whether something is Cheap! But yes, 6 to EV, and then at best a yield of 10%, which means average yield over cycle 5%, which is not that much at the end.
@@Value-Investing people who do this shouldn't buy individual stocks. For cyclicals, I buy when the return to equity is at the lowest point. This normally happens when PE is 100 and not 3. But as you well said, at this time, there are other opportunities way more attractive.
@@Value-Investing from financial statements, maybe. Stellantis falls into the cheaper segment and there are not Brand love and preference, if a competitor offers cheaper alternative for less, the love for Peugeot, Citroen, Opel and other brands Stellantis owns, fades away. BMW recent years keeps the M division customers happy = cashcow, makes one of the best EV options, BMW i4 is the best in class in terms of range and performance, Ix and cheaper suv ev alternatives follows this path. So if a recession is coming, BMW have higher changes to keep profitable or at least breakeven, as we know rich ppl tend to keep their wealth even during economical turmoils and are more likely to spend, rather than lower income customers Stellantis have. And we see it right now, Cheap Stellantis models and VW group cheap segment simply does not make sales, why, coz of the same reason the lower middle class simply does not have the money to replace their old vehicles with new ones. On the other hand I can see more and more new expensive vehicles on the road.
I am leasing a BMW and am very happy with it. However Sven is right, the analysis for BMW is the same. Tons of debt, currently borrowed at minimum rates, and I am paying 4% on my lease. I win because real inflation is over 4%, BMW wins because it sells more cars and is making the spread. The average Joe is punched in the face by inflation. Not sustainable, when the tide turns sales volumes will be down, leasing debt delinquencies will be up and the cost of BMWs debt will be up -> BMWs financials will be squeezed.
@@gillesd9347 you have a good point and also a great example yourself. At the end of the day you lease BMW, not Opel Mokka, Frapuchino or whatever their newest shity model is.
You could see them also as high yielding saving account like mining stocks. If markets are volatile in 2025 and returns in stock investments will drop for the coming years (as Charly Munger predicted) they will enable decent dividend payouts superior to possible alternatives and the downside (at these levels) is capped. When however economy is picking up again, which not doubt sooner or later it will, you will benefit from the upside. At the end of the day its always a question at which prices you buy........................
@@Value-Investing not necessarily. If you check mining companies most of them will also pay dividends in the downturn, as far as i can see also most car companies
@@mutton_man true but always check the alternatives in a possible recession with sinking interest rates. with oil and mining stocks return was much better than as alternative bonds, bills or saving accounts
So, I am not an expert, but after analyzing this video post from beginning to end, considering all aspects and possibilities, based on my intellectual capacity and extensive knowledge, which I have checked tactically and carefully from the beginning, especially in the light of spiritual evolution, I have come to a clear and definite conclusion: I can't say anything about it because, as already mentioned, I am not an expert. To be perfectly honest, and without wishing to offend anyone who has a different view, I think that, having looked at the matter from different perspectives, I have simply forgotten what I actually wanted to say.
Buffet has invested many times in car companies. The last ones, GM and BYD not so long ago. It is fine to keep aside if this is not your circle of competence, but this is a clear value investment situation and there is a good risk reward from these prices.
BMW won't 2x, their current designs are geared to the Chinese who are buying Chinese cars. BMW sales are tanking because the west doesn't want their rabbit cars. Merc looks good. Stellantis would never buy.
You're delulu. BMW sold more cars than Mercedes in 2023 and in H1 2024 - FACTS! And Mercedes is the one that bow to the chinese making all their cars egg-shaped boring copycats, especially the EV's. You're clearly don't know what you're talking about.
that is exactly what value investing is, you say no 999 times out of 1000! No bravery ever, just scared shit, and at the end you end wealthy. Good luck with bravery kid!
@@Value-Investing Again bla bla bla, I am just being brutally honest. You simply don't have a clear position, neither do you say I'm buying, nor do you clearly say I'm not buying. You're playing around.
The cost of energy in Europe is very high, and this is killing manufacturing in the region. Europe will have to deal with this problem before any of these businesses can prosper again. That will take years, decades maybe, and it might be wise to wait before investing. Aside from that, I don’t like Car Companies. They are unprofitable something like 7 years out of every 10. If I were forced to invest in one of these, I’d try to find one that knows how to survive a prolonged downturn because they’ve been through it before. VW perhaps, definitely not Stellantis.
Thanks for the video! Nailed it perfectly. The major/global car businesses are supported by a government in a way or another. The branch is quite distorted. However, there can be opportunities in luxury or premium car segments. There it is possible to have more differentiation in the customer value creation and power (brand, cornered resource).
Great video telling the story around the ratio! Buffet did invest in BYD which is a car company. However, I think he has been selling and it might have been a Munger investment.
ICE's are not disappearing. At the same time, investing in a declining sector is not easy. This sector is definitely like banks in that it seems to have been put in the "too hard" pile by investors for a lot of valid reasons. Best of luck to anyone looking to make money in this sector!
@@Value-Investing Just in reference to "you'd never see buffet buying car companies" buying and selling from 2012 until late 2023 they were still in GM. They bought byd in 2008 so yes you would see buffet buying car companies
I happened to stumble across Mazda( MZDAY) at a 1.8x PE and 5%+ dividend yield, just recently. Growing market share within NA markets and weak yen helping on the exports front. Does not share the debt or dilution issue as other autos and figured it could stomach quite a bit at that low of a multiple... Wild there's some convergent thinking, but figured must be priced this way for a reason.
@@Steven-jn2cw The auto industry is one of, if not the, most economically sensitive industries. Inventories rise and fall due to kinks in supply chains. Manufacturing automobiles is extremely capital-intensive. Running a debt-free (or even low-debt) automobile business is almost impossible. Revenue is certainly not recurring. Even the most frequent car buyer goes two to three years between purchases. Most wait between six to eight years. The entire industry is definitely not a growth industry either. Hope this helps.
I have a lot of respect for you and your analysis but none of these companies have a future. There are far too many car manufacturers worldwide. The companies you refer to all have very high structural expenses and are fundamentally on the road to bankruptcy.
not too surprising - there's a slowdown because people don't have money to buy a car - any car - but when it comes buying the next car it'll be an EV. People I've spoken to want to switch because it's cheaper (even with cheaper oil prices) than an ICE. When the consumer situation improves, so will these EV companies. Thanks again for the great analysis!
In the UK, trade vloggers are reporting worryingly high levels of pre-registering new electric cars against low sales and falling second hand prices. Maybe some fiddling to meet BEV sales quotas set by the government?
PEs are not reliable for highly leveraged companies. The risk of leverage mathematically requires a higher return on equity. It’s better to use enterprise value / free cash flow
Side note on Stellantis: CEO and President are overpaid. It's that typical family ownership structure where most value gets distributed through compensation. John Elkann is corrupt and inept. LOL
Thanks for posting this, Dr. Calin. Funny thing is I been slowing building up a position in STLA. What I been trying to figure out is how much the shrinking free cash flow is due to interest expense vs actual cap ex.
what do you think of post nl the price to sales of post nl looks crazy. They are decreasing service and increasing prices in recent days maybe that could be an oppertunity for the profit margin?
bad!! saying it for a reason. 2 problems: bad rev. growth, preassure on margins and too much debt. actually packaged foods (slow growth sector) vs retailers %gain gap is wide for a reason. consumer in us specially is not spending money on premium segment which is the one nesn operates. question is do u buy it bc of valuation or do we care about earnings like wal or cost. I believe both are important and nesn is cheap for a reason. Youll be better with a staples etf over time. My analysis might sound short term oriented. 2 more bad things, lack of adversiting and innovation. Personally i dont like most of these food staples bc of the slow growth whihc it becomes a risk of leaving juicy returns over the long term throygh etfs, though i dont care to have exposure through etfs just to low volatility. A much better option is L'oreal which nesn own for a reason: steady growth, but it actually still grows!
Hi sven, what about Porsche? It was listed in 2022 at 82,5 and is now trading at 70. I think it’s better than this other car companies due to the power of their brand. I am looking forward to hear you thoughts on this. Thank you!
It's impossible for the German government (or the French for Stellantis) to let them die. And I mean impossible. It's the thousands workers in factories, GDP impact, all the vendors in supply chain, transport, etc.
Working in the chemical sector, making the basic compounds that eventually go into insulation, carbumpers and dashboards. We are not in a good place right now. Chemical company shareprices like BASF or DOW are a great indicator for the health of the economy and specific sectors like building materials and the car industry. Everything starts with chemicals.
thanks for sharing from the field!
Good Point. However not everything e.g. insurances like Swiss Re, Munich Re, Axa can generate money out of 'Air' unless the risk kicks in.
@@p.8318insurance sector is not a growth sector unless the economy grows or population grows. You need growth for share price to increase.
BASF should get a boost once the Ukraine war stops and hopefully the Russian gas starts flowing to Germany. I bet their shares will climb at least 30 percent
Chemical sector is not doing well indeed especially the chemicals used for autos like Propylene oxide
on your last point, buffett has a good rule, always check how a company's financials look like during a recession, before investing.
correct!
These companies are done. Even with these high car prices they cannot make money lol! Staying far away
thanks for sharing!
They make overpriced low quality cars that don’t last and cost a fortune to repair. No wonder why the stocks are cheap.
Lol what a nonsense
@@jancerny5614 Ask any mechanic who work on new Chryslers and new German cars. If you don't want to, stop talking out of your behind.
thanks for sharing
@@jancerny5614 Stellantis makes some of the worst vehicles. For example, Jeep vehicles are sitting in dealerships collecting dust, because no one wants to buy these overpriced and piles of junk. There are plenty of RUclips videos on the subject. I would not be surprised if they are discountinued a few years from now. You can't simply look at the financials. You have to see what's happening on the ground.
I learned that we should avoid cyclical companies, especially autos, when the PE ratios look very cheap, and instead buy when the earnings dry up (in a recession) and the PE ratios are very high or even negative. When they look expensive, they are usually cheap, and vice versa. The stock price will follow the earnings. I agree with you Sven, it's best to avoid this sector.
that is how one buys cyclicals
Great lesson here, never thought about it like that. Good insight, thanks for sharing
Car companies are the best example for buying promises and nothing substantial. Total change in the sector right now and noone knows the outcome. No moat and many new competitors in the last years vs the old companies.
:-)
Hi Sven, what about an update on Rubis?
Took the words out of my mouth! 😊
could do, updated recently on platform, P.S> I own it now in a portfolio!
@Value-Investing@@Value-Investing I bought it again when it dove to 23.
looks like a black hole of debt that... however, the EPV is higher than the current price, so there might be something there.
@@Value-Investingrubis makes money hand over fist in an oil contango environment, because that’s when storing oil makes you money. Right now we are backwardation however, so i don’t think their business will be doing GREAT over the next months.
Can you give me one example of a value stock to you right now?
Any big company to get to this low valuation, there should be some negativity around it
Tesla is the only EV company that will survive because of the pace of their innovation and leadership. However, it is very expensive atm. I think it may drop below 100 and might be a time to scoop!
Cheap with a reason and they can be much cheaper in 5 years from now
THANKS SVEN. I WILL GIVE THE CAR COMPANIES A PASS. CHEERS
:-)
Tesla is gonna put all these clowns out of business.
Market cap is very different to enterprise value for carmakers, they have so much debt. If the PE is 3 the price to enterprise value might be 6. PE by itself doesn’t mean anything
Well said.
But that is what most people look at when deciding whether something is Cheap! But yes, 6 to EV, and then at best a yield of 10%, which means average yield over cycle 5%, which is not that much at the end.
@@Value-Investing people who do this shouldn't buy individual stocks. For cyclicals, I buy when the return to equity is at the lowest point. This normally happens when PE is 100 and not 3. But as you well said, at this time, there are other opportunities way more attractive.
@@maxjames00077 No, not "well said". The "debt" is mostly the current lease contracts from their buyers, over the own bank, not debt.
@@laciepyu255 sharp one. Thanks.
Value trap
Always catastrophic…
My TSLA shares going up! 📈
great!
came for BMW analysis..... did not saw it
all fall into the same basket, irrelevant if Mercedes, Stellantis, VOW or BMW
@@Value-Investing from financial statements, maybe. Stellantis falls into the cheaper segment and there are not Brand love and preference, if a competitor offers cheaper alternative for less, the love for Peugeot, Citroen, Opel and other brands Stellantis owns, fades away. BMW recent years keeps the M division customers happy = cashcow, makes one of the best EV options, BMW i4 is the best in class in terms of range and performance, Ix and cheaper suv ev alternatives follows this path. So if a recession is coming, BMW have higher changes to keep profitable or at least breakeven, as we know rich ppl tend to keep their wealth even during economical turmoils and are more likely to spend, rather than lower income customers Stellantis have. And we see it right now, Cheap Stellantis models and VW group cheap segment simply does not make sales, why, coz of the same reason the lower middle class simply does not have the money to replace their old vehicles with new ones. On the other hand I can see more and more new expensive vehicles on the road.
I am leasing a BMW and am very happy with it.
However Sven is right, the analysis for BMW is the same. Tons of debt, currently borrowed at minimum rates, and I am paying 4% on my lease. I win because real inflation is over 4%, BMW wins because it sells more cars and is making the spread. The average Joe is punched in the face by inflation. Not sustainable, when the tide turns sales volumes will be down, leasing debt delinquencies will be up and the cost of BMWs debt will be up -> BMWs financials will be squeezed.
@@gillesd9347 you have a good point and also a great example yourself. At the end of the day you lease BMW, not Opel Mokka, Frapuchino or whatever their newest shity model is.
@@Value-Investing Besides being obviously wrong, such statements will do no good to your reputation, especially as a value investor.
weird you haven't looked at GM also, they have massive free cashflow even now and buyback stock like crazy, second biggest position for me since 31
thanks for sharing!
Future is risky given their EV challenges
thanks for sharing!
Could you look at dlocal stock
thanks for suggesting
You could see them also as high yielding saving account like mining stocks. If markets are volatile in 2025 and returns in stock investments will drop for the coming years (as Charly Munger predicted) they will enable decent dividend payouts superior to possible alternatives and the downside (at these levels) is capped. When however economy is picking up again, which not doubt sooner or later it will, you will benefit from the upside. At the end of the day its always a question at which prices you buy........................
there are no dividends in downturns
@@Value-Investing not necessarily. If you check mining companies most of them will also pay dividends in the downturn, as far as i can see also most car companies
@@philippekogler they may still pay a dividend but don't they usually cut it significantly during downturn/recession.
@@mutton_man true but always check the alternatives in a possible recession with sinking interest rates. with oil and mining stocks return was much better than as alternative bonds, bills or saving accounts
Buffet invested in car compnies in the past, f.e. GM. He bought until Q1 2022 but sold off meanwhile....
thanks for sharing!
So, I am not an expert, but after analyzing this video post from beginning to end, considering all aspects and possibilities, based on my intellectual capacity and extensive knowledge, which I have checked tactically and carefully from the beginning, especially in the light of spiritual evolution, I have come to a clear and definite conclusion: I can't say anything about it because, as already mentioned, I am not an expert. To be perfectly honest, and without wishing to offend anyone who has a different view, I think that, having looked at the matter from different perspectives, I have simply forgotten what I actually wanted to say.
:-))
They are too far behind Tesla and BYD.
thanks for sharing!
Stellantis is the an accumulation of the worst car companies. They have no desire to maintain the American brands. They will be bankrupt.
Buffet has invested many times in car companies. The last ones, GM and BYD not so long ago. It is fine to keep aside if this is not your circle of competence, but this is a clear value investment situation and there is a good risk reward from these prices.
Why buying it and hoping price to go higher? buy if price begins to increase and sell before next decline.
Very good video
thanks!
Warren invested in BYD CAR COMPANY?
The title is not okay for what you say in this video, come on
exactly, my goal is to make people thiknk
Stellantis is indeed record cheap, i see some steel has been rallying, i had MT on my buy list but i thought it was too early🎉
thanks for sharing!
Welcome back Sven after your long and wealthy vacation !
I need the summer to recharge for RUclips :-)
BMW won't 2x, their current designs are geared to the Chinese who are buying Chinese cars. BMW sales are tanking because the west doesn't want their rabbit cars.
Merc looks good.
Stellantis would never buy.
You're delulu. BMW sold more cars than Mercedes in 2023 and in H1 2024 - FACTS! And Mercedes is the one that bow to the chinese making all their cars egg-shaped boring copycats, especially the EV's. You're clearly don't know what you're talking about.
thanks for sharing!
So much bla bla without any concrete positioning, that is so weak, no bravery at all.
that is exactly what value investing is, you say no 999 times out of 1000! No bravery ever, just scared shit, and at the end you end wealthy. Good luck with bravery kid!
@@Value-Investing Again bla bla bla, I am just being brutally honest. You simply don't have a clear position, neither do you say I'm buying, nor do you clearly say I'm not buying. You're playing around.
thx!
do the same principles apply to TM (Toyota Motors)?
It should
Very good summary of the sector
thanks!
The cost of energy in Europe is very high, and this is killing manufacturing in the region. Europe will have to deal with this problem before any of these businesses can prosper again. That will take years, decades maybe, and it might be wise to wait before investing. Aside from that, I don’t like Car Companies. They are unprofitable something like 7 years out of every 10. If I were forced to invest in one of these, I’d try to find one that knows how to survive a prolonged downturn because they’ve been through it before. VW perhaps, definitely not Stellantis.
thanks for sharing!
Stellantis has way more cash then debt, so it doesn't need much low % credit.
Most of them are net liquidity positive, that is not special to Stellantis.
thanks for sharing
Thanks for the video! Nailed it perfectly. The major/global car businesses are supported by a government in a way or another. The branch is quite distorted. However, there can be opportunities in luxury or premium car segments. There it is possible to have more differentiation in the customer value creation and power (brand, cornered resource).
thanks for sharing!
Thank you Sven. Looking forward to an update on lithium, which according to some industry insiders has bottomed.
as you say, some :-)
What about BMW? It looks much more solid in terms of revenue growth, debt, profit, and shareholder equity.
same basket with minor differences
Chinese auto makers start to produce same quality cars for much cheaper prices. I will never invest to Auto industry in Europe.
thanks for sharing!
Great video telling the story around the ratio! Buffet did invest in BYD which is a car company. However, I think he has been selling and it might have been a Munger investment.
They invested early in the CEO, whatever business he went in to
ICE's are not disappearing. At the same time, investing in a declining sector is not easy. This sector is definitely like banks in that it seems to have been put in the "too hard" pile by investors for a lot of valid reasons. Best of luck to anyone looking to make money in this sector!
thanks for sharing!
BMW: Net Cash = 90% of their Market Cap...
i was about to mention, among these top care makers, BMW has probably the best balance sheet? Sven did not have a look🤣
And VW has 80 EUR net debt/share. Terrible. Also not mentioned in the video. But hey he just had 30 seconds in the video reserved for VW.
No, VW is also around 60% Net Cash of Market Cap.
Its because of their Financial "Debt". You just have to calculate it correctly.
@@dominikschmid5662 2024 HY balance sheet (all millions): 50,391 Cash, 27,442 Short-term Investments, 129,168 Short-term debt, 128,002 long-term debt = 179,337 net debt = 357.74 EUR net debt/share - What am I missing?
sorry, I don't see it :-(
Buffet bought byd
yes, a long time a go
@@Value-Investing Just in reference to "you'd never see buffet buying car companies" buying and selling from 2012 until late 2023 they were still in GM. They bought byd in 2008 so yes you would see buffet buying car companies
Interesting
thanks!
High risk of catching a falling knife. Looks a lot like intel 1 year ago. It can go lower.
Buffet owns BYD I think :)
They sold out.
owned, but that was because Munger wanted to invest in the CEO, cars were irrelevant
❤❤❤
:-)
Hi Sven. Already got 400 shares of STLA at $15. I can wait a few years. It's a small position but I think it's worth the risk
So you took all that risk and made a 15x, and then decide to gamble the entire stake for maybe 1-2x more lol. Its trading at a pe of 50-60..
the key is that you know the risk
@maxjames00077
I didn't make 15×. I bought it at $15
@@mohamadsaleh779 lol so you made 16x.. 15x16= CURRENT STOCK PRICE.
@@maxjames00077 its stla not tsla
When you can buy Toyota at 7 P/E there's no point looking at these vastly inferior companies at any price.
Found the fanboy.😂
Toyota is loosing the EV battle even more than the other legacy carmakers.
@@pancakes429 easy to be a fanboy when a company makes the best products by far
@@laciepyu255 EVs are losing the car battle to plug in hybrids.
@@TimeToGetIntense Good joke, bro. Plug-Ins combine the disadvantages of both worlds.
nice video thank you
U said buffet never invested in car companies. Didn’t he invest in BYD ?
what was it, 200 million
I happened to stumble across Mazda( MZDAY) at a 1.8x PE and 5%+ dividend yield, just recently. Growing market share within NA markets and weak yen helping on the exports front. Does not share the debt or dilution issue as other autos and figured it could stomach quite a bit at that low of a multiple... Wild there's some convergent thinking, but figured must be priced this way for a reason.
same basket as the others, can be small differences but at the end same story
I will never...ever...never ever... invest in the automobile industry.
:-)
@@Steven-jn2cw The auto industry is one of, if not the, most economically sensitive industries. Inventories rise and fall due to kinks in supply chains. Manufacturing automobiles is extremely capital-intensive. Running a debt-free (or even low-debt) automobile business is almost impossible. Revenue is certainly not recurring. Even the most frequent car buyer goes two to three years between purchases. Most wait between six to eight years. The entire industry is definitely not a growth industry either. Hope this helps.
Nice video, valuation is important, risk is even more important.
Absolutely!
I have a lot of respect for you and your analysis but none of these companies have a future. There are far too many car manufacturers worldwide. The companies you refer to all have very high structural expenses and are fundamentally on the road to bankruptcy.
we totally agree :-)
not too surprising - there's a slowdown because people don't have money to buy a car - any car - but when it comes buying the next car it'll be an EV. People I've spoken to want to switch because it's cheaper (even with cheaper oil prices) than an ICE. When the consumer situation improves, so will these EV companies. Thanks again for the great analysis!
thanks for adding value!
In the UK, trade vloggers are reporting worryingly high levels of pre-registering new electric cars against low sales and falling second hand prices. Maybe some fiddling to meet BEV sales quotas set by the government?
the boom has passed!
Another bad take on the European car automakers debt not taking into account how much the financing branch weighs on the balance
exactly, it weighs!
PEs are not reliable for highly leveraged companies. The risk of leverage mathematically requires a higher return on equity.
It’s better to use enterprise value / free cash flow
thanks for sharing!
Side note on Stellantis: CEO and President are overpaid. It's that typical family ownership structure where most value gets distributed through compensation. John Elkann is corrupt and inept. LOL
thanks for sharing!
Sven, Warren Buffett did bought car makers. BYD pre IPO. still have some stocks. And have Mitsubishi to.
thanks for sharing!
Thanks for posting this, Dr. Calin. Funny thing is I been slowing building up a position in STLA. What I been trying to figure out is how much the shrinking free cash flow is due to interest expense vs actual cap ex.
thanks for sharing
what do you think of post nl the price to sales of post nl looks crazy. They are decreasing service and increasing prices in recent days maybe that could be an oppertunity for the profit margin?
have to take a look
Those car companies are trading as if we are heading into a recession.
thanks for sharing
how about specialty vehicle company like oshkosh? low PE but not as vulnerable in a down cycle
don't know!
I am
Not financing BMWs givaways of expensive cars to Real Madrid players
:-))))
What about Ferrari (RACE)? It's stock has been a consistently good performer
the stock behaves like the car - I am not competent to drive that one
Are we in recession or shoukd we still wait?
Do Schanaider company
impossible to predict!
good insights on the financing of these car companies. This is why I follow you.Thanks Sven!
thanks!
Hahaha I was expecting this response from Sven
:-))))
You should do a TRANE / TT analysis - 100 year compounder
thanks for suggesting!
🗽Currently only the energy sector is weak. 🤔
.
thanks for sharing
Are you reading my mind ? I was looking at Mercedes recently.
:-)
Excellent analysis Sven. Thanks!
thank you!
Hi Sven, what about a video on Nestle?
bad!! saying it for a reason. 2 problems: bad rev. growth, preassure on margins and too much debt. actually packaged foods (slow growth sector) vs retailers %gain gap is wide for a reason. consumer in us specially is not spending money on premium segment which is the one nesn operates. question is do u buy it bc of valuation or do we care about earnings like wal or cost. I believe both are important and nesn is cheap for a reason. Youll be better with a staples etf over time. My analysis might sound short term oriented. 2 more bad things, lack of adversiting and innovation. Personally i dont like most of these food staples bc of the slow growth whihc it becomes a risk of leaving juicy returns over the long term throygh etfs, though i dont care to have exposure through etfs just to low volatility. A much better option is L'oreal which nesn own for a reason: steady growth, but it actually still grows!
Classic Sven take-down. Good to have you back 😊
:-)
Buffett has invested in GM.
thanks for sharing!
Good info, thanks!
thanks!
After -15% i will buy
thanks for sharing!
Thank you, Sven!
Thank you for commenting!
Hi sven, what about Porsche? It was listed in 2022 at 82,5 and is now trading at 70. I think it’s better than this other car companies due to the power of their brand. I am looking forward to hear you thoughts on this. Thank you!
I own Porsche shares. It has very little debt and a good luxury moat. Can't compare it to the ones mentioned in this video.
The is no brand in cars, just people with money.
🗽 Hermes Int. is today +9% up... that is strange, because the valuation is very high.
.
China
thanks for sharing!
buffet invested a ton in asian car companies though
BYD?
yes BYD
What happened to your PYPL prediction? That video did not age well at all.
I dont predict, I analyze the risk and reward:/) big difference!!
@@Value-Investing that’s not doing you any favors, you missed that one “huuuuuuuge 👌🏻” time.
NIO is my bet! Lets Go NIO gang!
oh, I remember NIO ruclips.net/video/tCp3KK7kqHs/видео.html
@@Value-Investing Yes its not a value play. they have come along way as a company since you made that video.
My new portfolio:
Booking
Mariott
Sanlorenzo
Catana Group
Michelin
What do you think?
thanks for sharing!
Cheap for a reason.
exactly!
Should we buy or sell $META at $200? 😂😂😂
my favorite complaint, bought META below $100, sold at $200 and still not happy :-))) It is a compliment to me! Thanks!
@@Value-Investing I am still very conflicted whether to thank you or to yell in comments section using all caps. 😂😂
I dont like Cars, so i but aapl here hoping for apple car soon
They canceled that project ages ago.
:-)))
Tesla did what Apple couldn’t
STLA is debt free
thanks for sharing!
Thank god I didn’t listen to you on Tesla and did my own DD 🙏
great for you!
All priced for bankruptcy being in a dying industry.
thanks for sharing!
They are all going bankrupt in a few years. You can compete with imports. Too much risk
could be!
It's impossible for the German government (or the French for Stellantis) to let them die. And I mean impossible. It's the thousands workers in factories, GDP impact, all the vendors in supply chain, transport, etc.
When you have TSLA why bother with anything else? TSLA is going to be a quadrillion dollar company in 10 years.
great to hear!