Tesla announced a $5B at-the-market stock offering this morning, which is not covered in the video because it was recorded last night. Will try to arrange a follow-up video to discuss. In meantime, check out my thoughts on the stock offering here, twitter.com/heydave7/status/1336346946856861696?s=20
Isn’t the idea of buying puts to short Tesla in the scenario you asked emmet ? Above $900,1000 ... isn’t this what Micheal Burry is doing ? Your thoughts. ? He is not your “average “ short. He actually analyses very very closely. Is that what you were getting at when asking him why he wouldn’t bet on puts ?
If the infinity squeeze happens, a huge short term spike like what happened to VW in 2008, do the options also spike, simply based on the delta and share price? Or do they lag behind and kept artificially low because people *know* that its not going to maintain a 10x price change in 1 day?
@@Klemeq Options will spike. I had 2 screens going at once yesterday trading options on LAZR when it spiked up over $1 end of day and my options Spiked up at the same time.
Questions for part 2) 1) Will SEC halt TSLA trading if there is a terrible squeeze on Dec 18th 2) Will traders/indices buy TSLA after trading hours on Dec 18th, therefore moving the demand to after hours. This will not let options traders to take advantage of the demand.
Yes I would love opinion on these questions. My thoughts: 1) maybe, but I don't think a halt changes supply and demand remains the same. 2) I think this is likely.
Dave can you do a video explaining when you and your wife were counting options contracts to determine a share deficit... I didn’t understand that at all.
Is there a benefit to society of option trading? Long stock: raising capital Short stock: An incentive for research into companies that might be corrupt or doing shady things For options it's just not so clear to me what the benefit is to others. Would love your thoughts on it
really appreciate hearing you guys talk about your options play, as I try to decide how to also play this SP500 inclusion with my own money. Certainly this is an extremely once-in-a-decade or maybe lifetime event, with such a large company going into SP500, and a company we're following very closely and believe in strongly.
Thanks guys! Great interview! 😊 Please don't sell yet, I'll sell my Tesla shares once all my friends have a Tesla car. We can't buy here in the Philippines yet, it's not a household name like Apple yet. So yeah I'm super long in this.
Everytime I see you guys interacting, really very fascinating and wishful thinking, It is soooooo transparent, Its bcoz both you guys have the attitude of simple living and high thinking, always have positive mind to share your thoughts and knowledge.
Don't try and time it... make the decisions based on where you want your money. I sold 80% of my TSLA shares in April because a downturn was guaranteed... was kicking myself for months and then finally got back in this summer at 2-3x the price... or 1/2 - 1/3 the shares. The subsequent run up has been awesome, but trying to time it was VERY painful.
So interesting. I love how Dave and Emmet get into so many different aspects of investing. I feel like there are many good advice for long term investors.
I’m similar to you guys been a Tesla investor for 8 years. I was playing with options and buying deep into margin and finally realized it’s better to just sit on the stock. It’s much less stress. Just shave off what you need while it’s high and let it ride.
I’m contemplating the same idea Dave. If it goes to the 800-900+ range I just can’t help thinking it’s going to come back down. But how far? That’s the risk. I want to hold my shares long term and would only try this to buy back in and have more shares long term. Just not sure it’s worth the risk and the stress. But I would also kick myself if it ran up super high, then fell back 20+% and I didn’t do anything to take advantage of it.
Nah. Don’t have a price in mind to sell any of my positions. Time in the market will beat timing the market every time. I look at years to sell rather than price to sell.
Pure gold! Amazing interviews you're doing Dave. I would love to hear your guys thoughts on the roblox ipo and how it could play out and how you guys are going to play it. Thanks so much!
Emmett really knows how group psychology works, Dave if you are getting stressed it doesn't hurt to take a bit off the table, might be good to write some deep oom covered calls especially with the high premiums if you dont really want to sell
Thank you again for the wonderful discussion. I perhaps have a weird request, but can you be convinced to do a long-form discussion with Sven Carlin? He's a very dilligent value investor, and i think the contrasts and similarities between you two is fascinating. I think a crossover would be of benefit to both channel audiences
Dave, I heard you mention you’re having problems with your new sound studio. That could due to 1. Air gaps 2. Transmission thru ductwork 3. Vibration transmitted thru structure, door, or floor You might need to: 1. Insulate more 2. Seal gaps 3. Decouple inside walls, floor, framework 4. Isolate air handling system from the rooms This is all standard in pro studios but there are inexpensive ways to approximate with design and homedepot materials. I’d be happy to talk with you about it if you want Ive been a musician and had my own studio for many years so I’ve dealt with this many times. Henry
@Dave: I have the same question: when and how much of the TESLA stocks should I sell temporarily after a 2-3 times increase? I want to keep them for 5+ years, but I might have to preserve the gains before the new market drop (crash ?). @Emmet: partially you answered my question, you said sell maybe 10% of them. Of course, I have to do my calculations based on my portfolio. Nevertheless, it was great to hear that you both are hesitating on this question, and try to figure out (discuss). BTW, this is a great chatting series here. Thanks
Great to learn from a master - thanks Dave. I also hold Jan TSLA calls, but at a $600 strike price. I didn't have the guts to buy so far out of the money like Emmet did!
Hey Dave, I just read a serious and well written critique of Tesla's reliability and service from the Seeking Alpha website. The article is called Tesla's Achilles Heel if you want to google it... As an investor and lover of the company, it was very troubling to read. Can you address some to the problems they bring up and let us know if there are plans in place to fix these issues in the company? Thanks for all the great videos!
Surely if Tesla were bullish of the share price rising after the S&P inclusion they would have waited to sell their $5 billion of shares until after inclusion?
I think Tesla has achieved escape velocity due to their continual buildout of giga/tera factories, innovation and continuous improvement. TSLA may very well go to another level of evaluation.
Does anyone know if Quantumscape represents a real threat to Tesla with their claimed solid state battery technology? Just watching the FOMO on QS stock has given me pause to wonder on the solid state battery issue. I recall seeing Sandy Munroe basically say, not too long ago, that solid state batteries for cars is a pipe dream.
Dave, you appear to be stuck on when to sell and how much. Ron Baron has a great interview pointing out that when you start trying to time, it is as hard to get back in as it is to get out. You should interview Ron about Spacex. Kathy Wood has the right answer. Set yourself a % max. Maybe its 90%. For Ark its 10%. When Tesla gets over that %, sell some. For me, its 50%. Anytime TSLA is more than 50% of my personal worth, I sell some down. I won't do as well as others, but I don't have to worry about it. If I was 20 years younger, Id set it at 80% tesla cap. Love your interviews and all you do. Thanks! ! !
I think today so far has been a good sign, there was some negative news I suppose around the executed sale of more stock by Tesla. But the stock rebounded after a drop so it shows resistance even when there is some pressure to sell. We probably won't see another Monday this week, but gradual gains again day over day. The next few weeks will be really interesting! I feel like for tax reasons, we wouldn't see a major drop even after the S&P inclusion, until after January.
foreign investors who do not need to pay capital gain tax, they can sell and buy back the stock more frequently!? I am from Hong Kong and people/investors here do this like on a daily/weekly basis! Very much appreciate all the videos and information given out by you guys! Thank you
In US, no other company can compete with Tesla. But in China, NIO and XPEV both has potential to challenge TSLA. They are both founder managed and very nimble.
Here's how to lower your stress Dave: 1) Look at your monthly budget and figure out how much your family spends per day on average. 2) Look at your total stock gains over the last 2 years and divide this number by 730 (365 x 2). 3) Take the number in step 2 and divide by the number is step 1. 4) If the result is greater than 3 you can chill out... Something tells me that your number is far greater than 3. 😊
TBH I wouldn't sell even some of my stock either at 1000, mb at 1500 for sure at 2000. In the EU we got taxes of 27,5% for capital gains . Emmet's bet makes me itchy ... but I believe the whole TSLA-adventure is a century-chance for decades to come.
If you have a bulk of your portfolio in a position that means you have faith in the company's future--doesn't make sense to time a sell to lower your cost basis, just hold unless you need the funds for life purposes. No stress decision, just go on living.
I expected one down day last week and one down day this week. To sell "some" stock the time would have been after hours or before hours - it certainly hit a new high before this morning where it looked like a lot of folks sold at opening bell. If today is the down day could consider buying... I agree with Emmet where if you are watching the stock every day that's when you start to get a feel for it.
Seattle? Why leave the Cali weather for rain? Have you considered Irvine Dave? It’s the safest city in America, schools are all 10/10 rating, tons of parks everywhere, 30 minutes from crystal cove and other beaches, close to Disney etc, and large Asian community.
0:55 Dave! Told you not to get your expectations too high ...To do this properly in existing construction is virtually impossible. Too bad I live so far away :(
Re: AEVs, I think the real opportunity for Tesla is to maintain over 100% utilization by renting the passenger compartment, trunk and frunk independently. It would be a boon for B2B deliveries if their time-flexible deliveries could be sent at ride-along rates. Waypoints are a key part of this working, however, because when a rider stops for milk and bread on the way home, nearby businesses have and opportunity to send/receive goods during the changover. The network effect will give Tesla a growing view of what goes where, when, so their ability to attain massive new logistical efficiencies is unparalleled. Tesla is effectively implementing the global logistics network that Amazon aspires to, but in Tesla's case customers are paying for the hardware directly. I don't think people recognize that the Tesla Network will change B2B logistics, globaly.
A recent analogy of the market going crazy (infinity squeeze in the last 15 minutes of trading) was when WTI Crude Futures for May delivery went negative.
Tesla announced a $5B at-the-market stock offering this morning, which is not covered in the video because it was recorded last night. Will try to arrange a follow-up video to discuss. In meantime, check out my thoughts on the stock offering here, twitter.com/heydave7/status/1336346946856861696?s=20
Could you please make another follow up video? I really want to hear your thoughts and opinions. Thank you always for sharing!! 감사합니다 :)
Isn’t the idea of buying puts to short Tesla in the scenario you asked emmet ? Above $900,1000 ... isn’t this what Micheal Burry is doing ? Your thoughts. ? He is not your “average “ short. He actually analyses very very closely. Is that what you were getting at when asking him why he wouldn’t bet on puts ?
If the infinity squeeze happens, a huge short term spike like what happened to VW in 2008, do the options also spike, simply based on the delta and share price? Or do they lag behind and kept artificially low because people *know* that its not going to maintain a 10x price change in 1 day?
@@Klemeq Options will spike. I had 2 screens going at once yesterday trading options on LAZR when it spiked up over $1 end of day and my options Spiked up at the same time.
Agreed with all, and this formoost"Too fast appreciation leads to euphoria, then if stock lags for years leads to frustration"
This guy literally made like 15-20 million dollars in 2 weeks from this Tesla bet and he talking like it's no big deal... what a legend.
listening to you guys is like short-cutting years of experience. Amazing insights and knowledge you share. Thank you
it pretty much summarized 2013-2019
This channel is my place of power where I come to strengthen my will to hold the fat TSLA position.
love hearing you spitball different scenarios that might happen, all are marbles rolling around in my head helping me play this out.
Love Emmet every time he comes on. learn something new. This guy sees things in a different light.
Thanks guys, did a lot of research (for me) and decided to grab the Dec 24 $750 and $900’s
THANK YOU!!!!!!!!
(Bought them 11/23/2020)
My first positions ever, other than HODLing T$LA since Jun 2019, adding AMAP
Questions for part 2)
1) Will SEC halt TSLA trading if there is a terrible squeeze on Dec 18th
2) Will traders/indices buy TSLA after trading hours on Dec 18th, therefore moving the demand to after hours. This will not let options traders to take advantage of the demand.
Great questions
Yes I would love opinion on these questions. My thoughts: 1) maybe, but I don't think a halt changes supply and demand remains the same. 2) I think this is likely.
Oh baby this will be good! Dave please have one regarding the capital raise (I know a lot to ask... just that in love with the content!)
Thank you both!!! Forever and always
Looking forward to part 2! I’m also thinking on that question a lot.
“Just $30 bucks a day dear Lord. Its all we ask” lol
Keep going. Love the calm chat.
Dave I love listening to you and Emmet! Great insights as always!
Emmet is my spirit animal. I hope he kills it with this trade, sounds like it's going great already.
This is the best Tesla interview I’ve seen.
If TSLA hits $1K and we sell... what do we do with that capital?
Party like it's 1999?
Maybe don’t sell and wait for $2K?
Can't wait for part 2!
Best conversation on mindset and investing! Keep the interviews and conversations coming. Really appreciate your insight.
Just about every time I’ve trimmed my shares over the past year, getting back in has been at a higher price.
Why would you sell Tesla shares though. You should know it's a long hold type of situation.
Another awesome video with Emmet. Thanks Dave!!
Dave can you do a video explaining when you and your wife were counting options contracts to determine a share deficit... I didn’t understand that at all.
Is there a benefit to society of option trading?
Long stock: raising capital
Short stock: An incentive for research into companies that might be corrupt or doing shady things
For options it's just not so clear to me what the benefit is to others. Would love your thoughts on it
really appreciate hearing you guys talk about your options play, as I try to decide how to also play this SP500 inclusion with my own money. Certainly this is an extremely once-in-a-decade or maybe lifetime event, with such a large company going into SP500, and a company we're following very closely and believe in strongly.
Thanks for being real. Love these interviews.
The champs are back!
Thanks guys! Great interview! 😊 Please don't sell yet, I'll sell my Tesla shares once all my friends have a Tesla car. We can't buy here in the Philippines yet, it's not a household name like Apple yet. So yeah I'm super long in this.
Everytime I see you guys interacting, really very fascinating and wishful thinking, It is soooooo transparent, Its bcoz both you guys have the attitude of simple living and high thinking, always have positive mind to share your thoughts and knowledge.
I really appreciate the camera quality!
I am rooting for Emmet.
Don't try and time it... make the decisions based on where you want your money. I sold 80% of my TSLA shares in April because a downturn was guaranteed... was kicking myself for months and then finally got back in this summer at 2-3x the price... or 1/2 - 1/3 the shares. The subsequent run up has been awesome, but trying to time it was VERY painful.
Weve all been waiting for this
I just bought calls on Emmet and Dave convos. Feeling confident!
Love, love, love these - Intellectual but with humor incorporated
Love these chats.
So interesting. I love how Dave and Emmet get into so many different aspects of investing. I feel like there are many good advice for long term investors.
Emmet has a fascinating intuition for this type of stuff!
I’m similar to you guys been a Tesla investor for 8 years. I was playing with options and buying deep into margin and finally realized it’s better to just sit on the stock. It’s much less stress. Just shave off what you need while it’s high and let it ride.
Love the grounded and logical analysis. Thank-you.
Dave, Fantastic video! I appreciate the deep thoughts. Thank you!
You know Dave got bread when he said “as like a 2nd house ya know” lol
Hilarious I also keep looking at the Jan 15 700 strikes even though I don't own them!!!! We need a Emmet Meme
Entering the EV adoption S-curve and your bets make sense. But man, I would not be sleeping well until all that cleared. Rewards to the fearless!
Love your content Dave especially when you have Emmet on to give perspective of Tesla company thanks!!
The sound seems great. No worries. Maybe you hear but all good hearing just you.
I’m contemplating the same idea Dave. If it goes to the 800-900+ range I just can’t help thinking it’s going to come back down. But how far? That’s the risk. I want to hold my shares long term and would only try this to buy back in and have more shares long term. Just not sure it’s worth the risk and the stress. But I would also kick myself if it ran up super high, then fell back 20+% and I didn’t do anything to take advantage of it.
"One of those cases where people weren't prepared" - Dave Lee.
Nah. Don’t have a price in mind to sell any of my positions. Time in the market will beat timing the market every time. I look at years to sell rather than price to sell.
Pure gold! Amazing interviews you're doing Dave. I would love to hear your guys thoughts on the roblox ipo and how it could play out and how you guys are going to play it. Thanks so much!
Seattle is great 2-3 mos of the year. Lived there 15 yrs. Returned to LA because sunshine rocks
Emmett really knows how group psychology works, Dave if you are getting stressed it doesn't hurt to take a bit off the table, might be good to write some deep oom covered calls especially with the high premiums if you dont really want to sell
Thank you again for the wonderful discussion. I perhaps have a weird request, but can you be convinced to do a long-form discussion with Sven Carlin? He's a very dilligent value investor, and i think the contrasts and similarities between you two is fascinating. I think a crossover would be of benefit to both channel audiences
Im sorry about your mom. I wish her all the best 🙏
Dave, I heard you mention you’re having problems with your new sound studio. That could due to
1. Air gaps
2. Transmission thru ductwork
3. Vibration transmitted thru structure, door, or floor
You might need to:
1. Insulate more
2. Seal gaps
3. Decouple inside walls, floor, framework
4. Isolate air handling system from the rooms
This is all standard in pro studios but there are inexpensive ways to approximate with design and homedepot materials. I’d be happy to talk with you about it if you want
Ive been a musician and had my own studio for many years so I’ve dealt with this many times.
Henry
@Dave: I have the same question: when and how much of the TESLA stocks should I sell temporarily after a 2-3 times increase? I want to keep them for 5+ years, but I might have to preserve the gains before the new market drop (crash ?).
@Emmet: partially you answered my question, you said sell maybe 10% of them.
Of course, I have to do my calculations based on my portfolio. Nevertheless, it was great to hear that you both are hesitating on this question, and try to figure out (discuss).
BTW, this is a great chatting series here.
Thanks
Hahah yesss Emmett die hard tesla bull - “I would never put on shorts” 😂 awesome
I agree, spikes to $1000 are definitely possible as funds get squeezed.
Great content! Nice to see how emmet is doing. Part 2 will be great. Is it a skill or luck. If i can learn it, it would be great!
Great to learn from a master - thanks Dave. I also hold Jan TSLA calls, but at a $600 strike price. I didn't have the guts to buy so far out of the money like Emmet did!
TSLA 🚀 Lets goooooooooooooooo
Hey Dave, I just read a serious and well written critique of Tesla's reliability and service from the Seeking Alpha website. The article is called Tesla's Achilles Heel if you want to google it... As an investor and lover of the company, it was very troubling to read. Can you address some to the problems they bring up and let us know if there are plans in place to fix these issues in the company? Thanks for all the great videos!
your videos are so good, learning a log!! thanks a lot!
Made some entries yesterday 📈
Catching the supermove ; I love it
Surely if Tesla were bullish of the share price rising after the S&P inclusion they would have waited to sell their $5 billion of shares until after inclusion?
Yeah, come on up to Seattle! The beauty here is the gray and green kind, not sunny SD weather.
I think Tesla has achieved escape velocity due to their continual buildout of giga/tera factories, innovation and continuous improvement. TSLA may very well go to another level of evaluation.
Good way to wake up my brain! Thank you
Does anyone know if Quantumscape represents a real threat to Tesla with their claimed solid state battery technology? Just watching the FOMO on QS stock has given me pause to wonder on the solid state battery issue. I recall seeing Sandy Munroe basically say, not too long ago, that solid state batteries for cars is a pipe dream.
Dave, you appear to be stuck on when to sell and how much. Ron Baron has a great interview pointing out that when you start trying to time, it is as hard to get back in as it is to get out. You should interview Ron about Spacex. Kathy Wood has the right answer. Set yourself a % max. Maybe its 90%. For Ark its 10%. When Tesla gets over that %, sell some. For me, its 50%. Anytime TSLA is more than 50% of my personal worth, I sell some down. I won't do as well as others, but I don't have to worry about it. If I was 20 years younger, Id set it at 80% tesla cap. Love your interviews and all you do. Thanks! ! !
Wow, lawyers have gotten involved. CYA is important!🤪
Dave, what's the handle of the Frank guy you mention from the tesla Motors club who posted a Twitter thread on how the sp inclusion could play out?
Love these vids!
Dave - I’m located in the Seattle area, so ping me if you have any questions, etc. Happy to help!
I think today so far has been a good sign, there was some negative news I suppose around the executed sale of more stock by Tesla. But the stock rebounded after a drop so it shows resistance even when there is some pressure to sell. We probably won't see another Monday this week, but gradual gains again day over day. The next few weeks will be really interesting! I feel like for tax reasons, we wouldn't see a major drop even after the S&P inclusion, until after January.
Awesome video, thanks Dave
foreign investors who do not need to pay capital gain tax, they can sell and buy back the stock more frequently!? I am from Hong Kong and people/investors here do this like on a daily/weekly basis! Very much appreciate all the videos and information given out by you guys! Thank you
In US, no other company can compete with Tesla. But in China, NIO and XPEV both has potential to challenge TSLA. They are both founder managed and very nimble.
Dave dont be greedy no reason for stress listen to your wife 😂😂😂
Here's how to lower your stress Dave: 1) Look at your monthly budget and figure out how much your family spends per day on average. 2) Look at your total stock gains over the last 2 years and divide this number by 730 (365 x 2). 3) Take the number in step 2 and divide by the number is step 1. 4) If the result is greater than 3 you can chill out... Something tells me that your number is far greater than 3. 😊
TBH I wouldn't sell even some of my stock either at 1000, mb at 1500 for sure at 2000. In the EU we got taxes of 27,5% for capital gains . Emmet's bet makes me itchy ... but I believe the whole TSLA-adventure is a century-chance for decades to come.
If you have a bulk of your portfolio in a position that means you have faith in the company's future--doesn't make sense to time a sell to lower your cost basis, just hold unless you need the funds for life purposes. No stress decision, just go on living.
I expected one down day last week and one down day this week. To sell "some" stock the time would have been after hours or before hours - it certainly hit a new high before this morning where it looked like a lot of folks sold at opening bell. If today is the down day could consider buying...
I agree with Emmet where if you are watching the stock every day that's when you start to get a feel for it.
I love it my Tesla is in ROTH! NO TAXES!!!
Seattle? Why leave the Cali weather for rain? Have you considered Irvine Dave? It’s the safest city in America, schools are all 10/10 rating, tons of parks everywhere, 30 minutes from crystal cove and other beaches, close to Disney etc, and large Asian community.
Car sales growth is an X-factor in itself. Very few expects Tesla to sell 5M cars or more and it may not be that far into the future.
Dave I need more book recommendations!! I destroyed those Philip Fisher recommendations and I NEED more!
or even just your base concept knowledge of options, not in a gambling way.
0:55 Dave! Told you not to get your expectations too high ...To do this properly in existing construction is virtually impossible. Too bad I live so far away :(
Re: AEVs, I think the real opportunity for Tesla is to maintain over 100% utilization by renting the passenger compartment, trunk and frunk independently. It would be a boon for B2B deliveries if their time-flexible deliveries could be sent at ride-along rates. Waypoints are a key part of this working, however, because when a rider stops for milk and bread on the way home, nearby businesses have and opportunity to send/receive goods during the changover. The network effect will give Tesla a growing view of what goes where, when, so their ability to attain massive new logistical efficiencies is unparalleled. Tesla is effectively implementing the global logistics network that Amazon aspires to, but in Tesla's case customers are paying for the hardware directly.
I don't think people recognize that the Tesla Network will change B2B logistics, globaly.
FSD will be the natural way to drive even without robotaxis. There will be a 100% take rate at $8k.
Let it ride Dave. It won't dip. Maybe a small 5% correction and then up we go..
Like selling amazon at 800 which is now 3200
Teslas have less moving parts. Except the roof. Those fly off the vehicle at high speed. Call it a convertible feature
A recent analogy of the market going crazy (infinity squeeze in the last 15 minutes of trading) was when WTI Crude Futures for May delivery went negative.
Never saw your reply... dividend when do think?
..
these two are great
Dave and Emmet have a very different perspective from Cathy Wood on the upper limits of TSLA stock prices. $2,000 ???
There is less competition to Tesla that there has ever been for Apple.
I am selling CS Puts for some premiums, great income as stock is going up. Thanks for the analysis guys.
Is the $5B new offering going to dilute the current share price?
Emmet has some brass balls. I bought one 650 Tesla call and sold it when Tesla crossed 600.