Solving Basketball - Exposing the NBA’s Biggest Inefficiency
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- Опубликовано: 18 май 2024
- Do you think that basketball...has been solved?
Pundits would claim that "the game is simple"...just follow the fundamentals, and winning will transpire. Additionally, NBA analysts believe we have hit a plateau, and that easy advantages (such as 3 vs. 2) are no longer to be found.
Is this the end of strategic evolution..? Are there no more hoops secrets to be found, and all that matters now is player development?
In this video, we discuss the science of how minor adjustments can lead to disproportionately large differences in outcomes...the chaos theory of basketball. Where there is chaos, there is inefficiency, so I also wanted to touch on what I believe to be the biggest inefficiency in basketball.
Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:00 No More Secrets to be Found?
1:42 A Chaotic Game
2:35 A Global Inefficiency
05:20 The Other Spurs - A Data Analysis
06:52 A Misguided Thesis "The NBA is an Entertainment Business"
9:12 A New Secret...? A Massive Flaw?
12:05 An Inefficiency Is An Opportunity
#nba #nbaanalysis #dataanalytics #basketball #nbaanalysis #sportsanalytics
This is such an impressive video on all fronts. The editing, the writing, and the idea are all amazing. I hadn't put much thought into the importance of coaches before this video but putting it into perspective like this was a really big eye opener.
thank you! means a lot...we work hard to make it a fun experience rather than just a script/info.
@@michaelmackelvie No problem, you certainly succeeded in that endeavor
Bro, I was going to write nearly exactly that! LOL! First comment! You saved me the trouble, so I'll just say "+1."
Yuuuup. I feel like basketball just brings out the best in all aspects. Great video
Ml l
in football(soccer) big teams were doing what NBA teams are doing now, cycling through coaches for the most minor misstep, now there is a trend for fans trying to stay patient with a coach for at least 3/4 years bfr calling for their head, still don't know why NBA media don't understand coaches cant make systems with 1/2 off-season and continuous rotating players
are you suggesting that coaches shouldn't be fired after pre-season losses?
@@inazuma3gou more like coaches , who have shown some competence in the past should be given time , Atleast 2/3 years to develop systems
What are we doing anymore as a whole
@@chiragmc8374even tho I partially agree with you in your first comment I have to disagree with this second comment.
a coach who already proved in the past doesnt automatically mean that he get some pass to his future team.
I think Doc Rivers is a good example , the man earned respect after his title , got a documentary (on netflix?) where we can see how good his personality is but at the end of the day, people still have a negative image of him after what he did at the clippers and philly.
In Football (soccer) , not many coach survived this : they get popular after coaching a modest team and get totally exposed in a different situation and I think the example of Pep Guardiola is a good evidence.
He trained one of the best (if not the best) team in the football with Barcelona but got exposed at Bayern and City... until the previous season
Therefore, Guardiola earned some massive respect there.
@@Criminelsoyeuxguardiola got exposed at man city??? what are you halucinating, dude, are you even following football?
I would include Mike Malone and the Denver Nuggets in the list of teams that empower their coaches. Malone took lots of heat from the fans and press for not playing MPJ (former #1 prospect) more as a rookie due to occasional poor attitude and regular bad defensive effort. MPJ eventually bought into the system and is a more complete player for it. Murray has also spoken about how much he appreciates Malone's tough coaching.
I had a whole segment talking about him and the Nuggets patience…we cut it because the Spoelstra one illustrated the point and we didn’t want to drag on (sharing this because I totally agree with you…Denver finally got healthy and the patience paid off)
@@michaelmackelvie very true! Appreciate the reply!
of course, comments help me understand what folks take away...I am all but one perspective@@eriktorkelson2630
I think denver also emphasizes another important feature that San antonio also shares, ie the humility of the stars. Jokic and Duncan are stars who are willing to give up the spotlight to an extent, both in terms of allowing themselves to be coached and also in terms of giving opportunities to their teammates. It’s a lot harder to buy in to a system as a role player when the star who should be the center of that system is more concerned with their own individual success than that of the team. While an organization allowing a coach to coach is important, it’s also important that the players, particularly the stars, also let that happen.
The Nuggets once again illustrate this point, where if you look at the nuggets of the 2000s, you can see clearly that their main star Carmelo Anthony did not buy into the coaching of George Karl. The organization didn’t fire Karl until after Melo had already left the franchise, but his coaching wasn’t effective because of the extremely bad relationship between him and Melo.
Fast forward a couple of years, and the new star of the nuggets, Nikola Jokic, is more talented than Melo, has had more individual achievements than Melo, and is more celebrated than Melo, but has the humility to let Michael Malone coach him, even when that means Malone yelling at him or keeping him out of games. I won’t say that players shouldn’t advocate for themselves or let themselves be mistreated by coaches, but trust between players and coaches is in my mind the most important thing to creating a consistently good team
Perfect time to remind the people that downplay Boogie Cousins that he BEGGED Kings management to keep Mike Malone. The job he's done in Denver is immaculate.
I think Sam Presti realized this in his years back in san antonio and that's why he belives so much in coach Mark Daigneault. OKC this year is playing their system almost religeously and even when the bench warmers come in, instead of chucking up shots to stand out or get the game over with, they play the system and continue to drive and kick to find open shots. The best example is the last game against the blazers, it was the 4th game in 6 days and the second game of a back to back (the previous game was an overtime game in another city less than 24H before) but the team played smart basketball and never deviated from the system leading to a blowout win shooting 60/60/100 as a team.
100%, was looking for this comment!
He did the same thing with Donovan, gave him years to implement a system and didn’t rush it.
Best GM
Good point, bad example. OKC have a very clear talent advantage over the Blazers. But they do have an efficient system.
@@PassFirstPostthe example is not about comparing okc to the blazers but the fact it was the 4th game in 6 days for okc yet they still followed the script. It could have been any opponent
@@PassFirstPostYeah, that’s when you take the 40 point win into consideration.
Plenty of talented teams don’t dismantle teams like that. Why do you think OKC are shooting better than most of the league? It’s partly better players, but also better shots.
I've been enjoying watching the paradox of the Orlando Magic this season. They're very much rejecting the idea of shooting 3's at a high clip, but reverse passes are their entire offense and it leads to them having a 15th-ranked offense(held up by their #1 defense) despite having a top 3 worst 3-point shooting efficiency. Notably, it leads to many hockey assists if you look at advanced stats, though they have a lower direct assist percentage. Craziness.
I’d argue the only thing that team currently misses is a star-level offensive player. Paolo/Franz are, imo, trending that way though, so they have a BRIGHT future.
@@zeb_reynoldsI hope you’re right
If THE Inefficiency, on the world's premier stage for basketball, is the inability of coaches being able to establish new and innovative ways to play basketball, means there is a systemic problem in the NBA that is hindering us from finding even more inefficiencies. You're a literal basketball savant, a prophet. And I am merely a follower, subscriber if you will.
Thanks Will! It is strange…the money would suggest more franchises should let a coach, coach….
Michael you and I are 1000% aligned on this. Particularly over valued NBA franchises, superstar salaries and marketing stars over the primary form of entertainment which is “winning”.
I’m an old basketball fan and a purist who enjoys the NBA but can definitely point out the inefficiencies. One inefficiency is having the team’s star pegged to shoot the winning shot usually off an iso move. The rest of the guys usually just stand around.
Well done !!!
Michael may make the very reasonable argument that there is a long term path to victory by playing a certain way and hiring coaches who enforce it, but I'm going to point out that this methodology requires the wrinkled 70 year old owners of the teams to be disciplined and actually stay the coarse. If you don't understand how difficult being a disciplined shareholder is, look at practically every study on retail traders. Even with a market that trends upwards, meaning that they could just buy and hold and win, they consistently lose money because they lack discipline and they do what feels right to them. Trade. Trade. Trade. Market goes down? Sell, even though that's really not how you're supposed to play the game. Instant gratification. That new coach you hired loses a game? Completely undermine his authority and then fire him with half the season to go.
There, the actual inefficiency in the (edit NBA... Well, I guess leagues with teams owned by rich old men are interchangeable.)spelled out.
You’re basketball content is 10/10. We need more. The basketball community needs more.
This is good shit, and I don't usually say that about RUclips NBA pundits.
Turns out the ball moves faster than the players
We tested this in the last video
Humble superstars allow coaches to coach . Duncan,Curry,Jokic. Great video btw,new subscriber. Keep it up! Hello from Serbia.
Allow me to summarize:
NBA players egos create an inefficiency so great that even not as talented or physically gifted players can exploit through a sacrificial coaching system.
Who is the defending olympic gold medal holder currently? Remember how that went?
Rather than talent and physical gifts (that when referenced in the context of already being at the table of playing pro ball, mean VERY little) I think a better way of saying it would be: sacrificial coaching systems are SO important that if you ignore them, lesser SKILLED players can use it to be BETTER players by being better in that moment.
Totally false. Look at the last 30 years. Probably 27 or 28 of those years the championship was won by a team with a top3 player in the league
WRONG
FYI the biggest egos the game have ever seen HAVE WON THE MOST. Probably Tim Duncan is the exception.
My hometown basketball team CSKA Moscow used to play in Euroleague so it was what I watched when I was growing up, and back then, very many teams had really explosive coaches that aren't afraid to bench their best player or scream at the entire team or make them run during practice. When my family moved to US, I noticed that NBA coaches seemed more like mentors than coaches. They very rarely get angry with any player on team, let alone the star player, and I think that is reflected in the amount of energy the players play with on an average regular season game. I would really love for a coach like Zeljko Obradovic get a chance in NBA and see if that kind of coach can work with the pampered NBA players.
I see your point. For me I always performed better under chilled intelligent hands down coach, boss, leader. I tend to build walls on demanding people, becoming self destructive. To each it's own.
@@FirefighterBobby I don't think a coach should always be a screaming guy, but I feel like not many NBA coaches are good at motivating players when they are out of focus or not trying their hardest. You only see a few coaches like that like Popovich or Carlisle or maybe Thibs.
For me someone screaming at me once every so often gets me out of my own head and helps me listen and refocus myself. In my hockey team our coach only screamed when it was very important and it would always reset our minds.
My coaches in high school were Bobby knight like nutters always angry and I didn't like it. But looking back now I appreciate them
Already becoming one of my favorite RUclipsrs. Appreciate all the work that goes into making these
absolutely! his calm voice is helping, too.
It's also just so much easier to fire an HC after bad performances than for an owner/GM to look in the mirror and adjust their team building aspect or for the owner to just straight up fire their GM.
And if ''it might upset potential stars'' when you have an HC with a strong identity and playstyle, than I am on the boat you don't want that player in the first place if your goal is to ultimately win a championship. Those types of players don't lead to winning, because of them making secondary aspects (personal stats and success) their primary goal.
The nets a couple years ago are a perfect example. Not only did they fire the HC (twice), they made it a point to give their stars ANYTHING they wanted. Fast forward 18 months and all three were traded
I’m a really new NBA fan who started watching this season and I must say the way you analyze and explain is extremely well done! I honestly believe you’re one of the best NBA channels out there! Love your vids keep it up!
How do you still have less than 30k subscribers? That is criminal. You deserve much, much more. Your videos are excellent and so, so much better than a bunch of other content creators, particularly in the NBA / Basketball field. Keep it up!
Thank you! I really appreciate that…we put a lot of thought/energy into each one.
@@michaelmackelvie Agreed. I am not a general fan of American sports, yet your storytelling is great enough for me to follow along and the video production is very high. Subbing for that reason alone because we need more creators like you.
the quality of these videos are insane. Only a matter of time before you blow up
Definitely. I’m amazed. If this dude makes these by himself he is insanely talented
this is crazy, i am so blessed to be able to watch your content
Thank you! A lot of work but these comments make a big difference…much appreciated.
love your videos, I really enjoy that the ideas you develop can be applied in other areas and life endeavors
That’s sports!
What is the machine on the desk called?
Who are you?! This video just pops up and it is practically perfect in every way! Sharp commentary, sharp concepts, sharp shooting....the composition and scene changes I mean. As a fellow sports nerd, I love the how the video created a feeling that there is something hiding there in the numbers, the stats, the draft boards, the leagues...there is something hiding there that can teach you something, open new doors, answer a question or solve a problem. Just excellent all around!
Even the somewhat throw-away line (in the scope of the video) about the infinite complexity in an infinite universe is beautiful. (And a concept I'd argued in the past with my more determinism-minded friends.) Framing it all with the chaos pendulum and a data analytics hashtag...perfect video for me and a new follow of course.
About coaching. Same problem in football-soccer now. Players have too much power and its easier for team managment to fire coach then to put player (or players) in his place.
Gregg Popovich ran the whole thing in San Antonio
The Holt family gave him a mandate to do well on court and turn a profit
The constrains made the team creative
Thank you! Brilliantly articulated! I commented on your previous basketball video and I had a feeling these were the other parts of the game you were leaning towards discussing. Thank you for putting it into more elegant explanation than I ever could. I find the coaching portion is a problem in many leagues and it’s just exacerbated in the NBA due to the “star power”. Understanding these concepts must be why I’ve always had a dream to run a sports franchise yet I was born into the social class without generational billions.
One of the key things in Moneyball was that you can't moneyball the playoffs. Mike Budenholzer did what you can do; win as many games as you can in the regular season.
Yeah, the playoffs is too variable. Teams get hot or cold, injuries can make or break, but I think coaching and discipline is one of those things that matters more in the playoffs. Being able to read the players, call timeouts, draw up plays. But even then, players gotta play.
I was always fascinated about strategy in many different fields: board games, finance, sports and others. Thanks for your videos, your channels is a gem for me!
Tackling enduring questions is a lost art that you are refreshingly in touch with. We love sports because they mirror life. We can address existential questions in a less-threatening context where biases are generally less grave, thereby less polarizing, and therefore less menacing. Hopefully this allows us to slow down, set our egos aside, and face reality with greater courage and greater clarity. Attaining this on RUclips's platform is evidence of mastery in your chosen medium. Keep it up.
Just discovered the channel and watched a couple of your videos. This is the best basketball channel I’ve ever watched. Love the rhythm and the concept of your videos. Keep up the great work my brother !
I don't understand anything about basketball, but I still left this video with new knowledge. A testament to your abilities. Thanks
3:51 to add here, Serbia being such a small country, we could be having an extra motivation making our players fight harder having more to prove, pride plays a big role, not every player will feel pride in the same way, and the country as big as USA needs something to prove, but then again, we all do
Very interesting video, I really enjoyed this
this is a very well made video
i enjoyed it a lot
i'm looking forward for more from you
i agree about the 'letting the coach do his job' point and i enjoyed how you analyzed and presented your points
stay healthy ♥
Halfway through, but I love your take on this. Highly appreciated.
Edit: Really well done, subscribed. This is really a kind of sports channel that was needed, thanks!
Production value is stupidly good. Keep doin' what you're doin', man.
Thanks Jimmy!
Fantastic content. Thank you for the effort you put into this, not just with the production quality, but with the ideas and story you have to share. Already looking forward to your next one!
Absolutely love this kind of content. I think sports analytics is something everyone can be interested in and the way you smoothly integrated stats with opinions is spectacular!
First video of yours that I've seen, instantly intrigued and can't wait to watch more!
I feel like another point that lets coaches coach that wasn't brought up here is having your superstar being receptive to coaching; taking critique and playing within the system. that willingness spreads throughout the team. it's easy to get players to follow along when the franchise mega star is helping lead the way. makes you think "well if hes willing to get yelled at there has to be some credence to what the coach is saying". I feel teams like the spurs, warriors, and now nuggets benefit heavily from this; and it's why a lot of super teams in my opinion tend to fall way behind expectations. famously brooklyn nets with kyrie stating and im paraphrasing here that the players can coach depending on whos popping off that day.
Love to see you doing more sports vids! Love them!
I think of basketball as a sport of three variables: Where the ball is, where the players are and the player's momentum.
Moving the basketball and off ball alows you to exploit all three of those in the best way possible
Incredibly high quality video, keep up the good work!
I can’t believe how well this is made. Hidden gem. 11/10
This channel is outstanding. Im in awe of your editing and writing and video ideas.
This type of content is soooo so fresh in terms of basketball and the NBA, new subscriber here!
Love this production. Nicely done.
this is honestly the most fun i’ve had watching an analysis of basketball
Absolute gold. Great video!
My dude, you are undoubtedly the single best bball content creator on RUclips. The presentation, the analysis, the humor, it's all impeccable. I only wish I'd found you sooner, but I am 100% going to be watching every single video you put out from here out.
My only suggestion is the take what your analytics data is pretty clearly showing you, and focus exclusively on basketball related content going forward. The algorithm really wants creators to focus on a specific niche, and I think you've found yours.
This is one of the most entertaining, tasteful and insightful analysis I've ever seen. I am especially happy with its conclusion on the importance of coaches. Hats off to you, good sir! Greetings from Hungary!
Hey! Just watched the previous video to this one and now on this one… gotta say wow they are awesome!
I commented last video too and I was going to mention Greg PoppV. As it pertains to Steve Kerr and a different mindset of playing basketball, hence how the Spurs are well known at least in my hometown as “the ball movement team” along with the warriors really. Awesome videos, you use stats but also a different perspective to view and shine light on topics pertaining to “less efficient North American Basketball”
I love the pacing of your arguments in video form. Please keep making content ❤
Please keep it up with the sports videos, I love your analytical approach to sports and how you make and curate videos. Earned a new sub, please keep making stuff like this!
These just KEEP getting better. Subscribers will start coming in. Keep it up brother
This is one excellently constructed video brother. subbed!!
One of the most accurate and well explained sports analytics videos I've ever seen. Great Job!!!!
Really Underrated, hope the algorithm picks this up
Well put together subbed
Insightful stuff that is well presented, kudos man!
Another great video! I love the format and the editing.
This is insane quality. Keep it up!
iI just discovered this channel and im really impressed with what a well thought out and informing video with great diagrams to display the information youre providing. This channel is going to be huge some day soon. Keep up with the great work, youve just gained another supporter!
What an amazing video, had me hooked the entire time such high quality liked, subscribed, I have no idea you don’t have more subscribers!!!
This is by far the best basketball video ive ever seen
Wow! Amazing story telling and exploring basketball in a scientific manner is so captivating. Thanks for sharing. I look forward to following your work :) keep shining ☀️
Suprising not to even mention the Nuggets in this video. They are the most emblematic team of so many of these concepts in the current NBA. Otherwise, I loved the video. High quality content!
it's because of cost I think - Nuggets signed multiple players to max contracts and he's talking about winning more with .. LESS
A fat Serb turned out to be one of the biggest inefficiencies that the Nuggets reaped. Intelligence and skill was criminally undervalued in the NBA.
Dude your videos are always so good. Keep up the great work
Well thought out, researched and produced. Informative and educational. Thank You.
Great data, great way to talk about it, also a los of fun. Thanks
Great vid, great topic and presentation !
Incredibly well done video
This is interesting, hilarious, amazing content.
I'm in awe! Thank you for your work. Subscribed! 👍
I was expecting about 500k subscriber count. You are underrated! Great content!
This is an incredible vid thanks for your work! Keep it up
Really liked the discussion and the data provided with all this. Hopefully it catches the eyes of those in the NBA front offices to look more systematic approaches rather than just chasing titles by firing coaches left and right. Also, great production, editing, and writing too.
This was an enjoyable and informative watch. Going to look for more now😃 .
More sports videos!! Editing and production is rly good too man nice job
Dude your account is awesome. Amazing content.
This is good!! I couldn’t look away from the video.
Great video and great editing. Teams will eventually catch on to giving their coaches more control and time yeah.
Great video looking into what could be the future of the game. Earned that subscribe, thanks!
That was a fantastic video. I subscribed!
Love your videos man. Love statistical breakdowns and weird anomalies in the system.
Incredibly well made video. Well done.
awesome video, most underrated channel on youtube rn
this channel is awesome man
Great video! The diversity of your videos is admirable.
You are absolutely right, great show, keep it up. I would like something more about Denver, about Eurolleague... Greetings from Bosnia and Serbia!
Keep up the great work Coach MacKelvie. Your "small market" of subscribers is sure to grow as more and more of us buy into your system! I'm a brand new season ticket holder myself.
This was entertaining bro, great personality along with a really well put together video. Definitely earned a sub keep it up man!
Denver definitely exemplifies coach empowerment and much respect for addressing and agreeing in the comments. Great video!
The quality of your videos are amazing I hope you aren't overworking yourself
Wow, this level of production for a (relatively) small audience is insane. Great work bro
What a masterpiece, thank you very much, Michael!
One of the best basketball videos I’ve seen in a long time, and I watch a lot!
another great video man!
This video was something special man. It had all the ingredients from game economics to game inefficiency. 🙏
Thank you!
Next-level edit. wonderful.
Thank you!
I just amazed with this video. Important discussion!
My god your content is one of the best presented I've ever seen! reminds me of Neil halloran a bit. Love your work on sports and data in general; a lot of people analyze basketball stats in terms of performance, but such deep dives into salaries, markets, and other driving forces behind the sport is pretty novel.
Haven't even watched a minute of the video yet, but just based off of that intro I can tell you deserve a lot more subs, I'm definitely gonna watch this later 100%
First time watching one of your videos. Wow!!!! Just wow🔥👏🏽
Gonna go find some more....... 💯
You are going places these videos are amazing