We Measured "Luck" in the NFL. It’s a BIG deal.
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- Опубликовано: 9 июн 2024
- What role does luck play in football? In sports?
First, we need to figure out how we can measure “luck”…if we can measure it, then we can examine it.
Michael Mauboussin has done some research on this very topic…laying out the different sports from “Skill” to “Luck”. However, this isn’t the main fixation of this video…instead, we focus in on the role of luck in football. Specifically, it’s impact on winning, and losing.
First, we wanted to quantify “luck”. I want to thank Tom Bliss of the NFL for his help with this, as he provided me with a basic framework - four “luck” components that are essentially chance events.
Using these components, we can calculate their effects on win-probability-added (WPA). This allows us to see who has been lucky…and who has been unlucky.
I also want to thank Ben Baldwin for his time and help in connecting me to Tom…Ben does a wonderful job breaking down the world of football, and (just like Tom) is worth a follow.
00:00 Was this Luck?
00:48 Luck in Football, and Sports
04:19 Quantifying Luck in Football
07:13 Luck in the Postseason
11:30 Luck in the Regular Season
*I do not own any of the rights to the NFL footage used in this video, and this is not a film created by Tom Bliss, or the NFL.
As a colts fan, I miss having Luck
Felt 😔 but hopefully AR can take us back
ironic enough, Luck had one of the most unlucky careers of all time
@@MHNK77LMFAO yeah that IS ironic. Andrew Luck did have a lack of luck on his side
As a Titans fan, I do not miss Luck
Still a sore subject
It's honestly insane how a few millimetres can determine someone being a legend or a playoff choker.. but that's why i love sports
Well said
That’s the part I hate about sports
Kevin Durant's shoe is looking around nervously right now.
Titans:
@@peterranney9488 or the 2022 World Cup, Martinez's saved a game winner with under 30 seconds left
In his book, The Score Takes Care of Itself, Bill Walsh said, "The final score of a football game is decided, on average, 20 percent due to luck. I accepted the fact that I couldn’t control that 20 percent of each game. However, the rest of it-80 percent-could be under my control with comprehensive planning and preparation."
Cool stats. Of course if it’s actually closer to 50% the coach is just a figurehead.
This is hillarious this is about the same as the high end estimates where last time I saw a conversation about yugioh wins.
I’m gonna read it
@@tiggerbane4325go play yugioh nerd
@@sgttomasa figurehead? This is football, the coach is the defining individual on a team. Only the QB comes close in importance. Are you thinking of another sport?
“Kicks a man!” Is still one of the greatest calls in history.
After seeing this play i started watching football🤣
Hey man, don't quit RUclips. It's crazy the production value and quality you have. Keep up the great work and the subscribers and views will come. You seriously deserve more exposure than you're getting right now.
Thank you Bryson! Much appreciated
As a fellow Bryson, I approve of this message 👍
@@michaelmackelvie mate I'm an Australian, so i've got no clue about most American sports, and I love this content. Please keep making it
Yea dude got my sub！ more nfl vids！！
Regarding the lucky turnover on the punt that hit the players foot in Super Bowl 58, why was that player even there? He was there to block for the receiver. In fact there were two blockers back there. But in the first three punts, there were no blockers and the receiver kept getting tackled as soon as he caught the ball. As a consequence, Kyle moved one, and later, a second blocker back to facilitate a return. While it was luck that the ball hit the blockers foot, this bad luck was created by good play on the part of the Chiefs. An example of how good luck is created by good teams.
“You gotta be good to be lucky and lucky to be good” might be the best quote about it. In evenly matched games luck becomes a dominate factor but with enough skill you can push it to the margins.
I was scanning for the bears in the spreadsheet he scrolled through and saw that they had the 17th and 23rd luckiest seasons, yet ended both at 8-8. They were an extremely lucky team, but they just aren't good. No amount of luck will help with that.
@@TheKingOfToast If they weren't lucky, would they have been 8-8?
You have to be good to take advantage of good luck
The football is an oblong shape prone to chaos, and as the great Bud Grant said not long before he finally passed, "you have to learn to live with the bounce."
One of my biggest gripes with sports fans, particularly with the NFL, is how often people feel things that did not happen could not have happened. Lamar is seen as a loser and a choker whose playstyle does not lead to playoff success, but of course if he ever happens to get lucky all of that will dissipate. I’ll never get over how drastically people’s perceptions of Giannis and Jokic changed after their title runs, or how far Harden’s perception has dropped since his prime ended without that title stamp. I spent my entire childhood pounding on tables saying Stafford was better than people thought him to be, only to watch him leave my team and enter the conversations I long wanted him in because he found some team success.
I could talk endlessly about player perception in the NFL and its relation to luck. So many fans don’t get it. Excellent video
That is a great way to put it…
Exactly. It's mainly caused by these "Debate" shows running nonstop. They push black or white/ hero and villain narratives because they know that attracts views. Few people want or are able to consider nuisance and talk about luck.
All they want and are able to process is "This guy GOAT, that guy sucks, that other guys chokes"
People need to study more poker.
Stafford is an average QB with good toughness and a strong arm. He was on a stacked Rams team that blew their whole wad on one year and haven’t done shxt since 🤷♂️
@@poindextertunes they were a competitive playoff team this season and he missed almost the entirety of the only other year after the Super Bowl
Are you the son of Jon Bois? what we all needed brother, keep grinding
Now I’d love to see an analysis of “unluckiness” for losing teams rather than “least luck.” For example, if your OWN team drops a pass or missed a FG, that’s lucky for the other team, but failed execution by your own team. So what sort of breaks are just down right unlucky? Something that adversely affects one team that they have no control over?
I would honestly say fumble recovery after the ball is out of the hands of the player. Yeah they can cause the fumble but the bounce of the ball is completely random
Well there's a lot to this.
The point of these metrics is to try to analyse how good a team is. (Because betting.) SO it's about control. If my opponent keeps dropping passes, clearly I'm lucky (unless they're M V-S, In which case, I expected this) in the sense that, when I play someone else next week, that drop tells you Nada about how I will do. There's not really any other explanation *. If I'm the chiefs... my drop rate over the season is a predictive factor.
luck on your own plays _will_absolutey influence how your team does. if all kick units were equal then some would still only average 70% for the season. But the stats suggest that they arent: The falcons and ravens are outliers. Last year's best kicking team on average will be expected to do a bit worse this year, but still be good.
* well actually there's weather conditions and perhaps separation and maybe even crowd noise. But only some of that is a persistent effect. And with enough data maybe it's measurable
if your team drops a pass, the defense had no control over that so its lucky for them, but the reciever did have control of that, so its not unlucky for the offense because they could have caught it, thats the same with the missed field goals and interceptions
I also believe that how a team responds to their luck (good or bad) makes a big difference. The Chiefs force a fumble, recover, then proceed to give the ball back on downs. Skill meets luck, but the Chiefs failed to respond positively to that luck. Later in the same game, the kick that was referenced over and over, the Chiefs proceeded to score, capitalizing on that luck. Luck only matters if you can respond positively to that luck, good or bad.
Yeah, basically the definition of luck in this video is trash. "The other team making a mistake" isn't luck. Luck is something that *neither* team has influence over. Otherwise you find yourself saying "teams that played Carolina last season were like 10 times luckier than teams that played Baltimore" which is ridiculous. It's obvious that's a question of team quality...the opposite of luck. "Wow Kansas City was so lucky that their opponents made more mistakes than they did" is such a braindead take. There is absolutely luck in football. But this ain't it.
The quality of sports video you post are unmatched! You deserve all the success that WILL come to you
Thank you for a great video… and for including the video of the blown penalty on the Saints.
Incredible production quality, great analysis too! 😮
dude you are so next level with these sports analytical breakdowns this is the singular most impressive sports channel out rn and is on my mount rushmore with jon bois work, foolish baseball, or jxmyhighroller, you're a LEGEND Michael
These videos are AWESOME the analytics and the passion you guys show is insane i cant wait for the next video!
Thank you!
I love this channel. You make videos over things people would never think about and it’s always done so well
Luck also has a huge impact on individual players. Look at Tom Brady. He needed a serious injury to Bledsoe, Vinatieri's clutch kicking, a great coaching situation, beneficial officiating on the Tuck Rule play, and a very good defense to get his legendary career rolling. How many Super Bowls does Brady win if Bledsoe never gets hurt? Zero?
Not to mention *deep breath* willie mcghinist milking a injury vs the colts. No ty law rule in 03. John casey kicking it out of bounds. Early 2000s playoff peyton. Donavan mcnabb being sick in 39. And T.O playing on the broken foot but he still did work so eh....Troy brown stripping the int vs San Diego. Getting randy to throw to for 3 years. Philip rivers having to play on a torn ACL. And LT and Antonio gates being injured as well. Medical technology improving in the realm of knee rehab. The buttfumble. Julian Edelman being able to fill welkers shoes. Gronk. Multiple top 10 defensive units and offensive lines. The ravens missing a FG in 2011. Seahawks and the one yard line. And Jeremy lane going out after that tackle. The falcons forgetting how to football in the 4th quarter. The edelman catch. Winning the coin toss. Myles jack being ruled down. A bulls*** roughing the passer call. Another god damn
offsides on the defense at the worst possible time. The Rams forgetting how to offense despite being the No.1 offense in the NFC. And also the saints game having them be the match up to begin with. Drew Brees shoulder giving out after the 1st quarter. Yet another God damn pass interference on a 3rd down vs green Bay. Throwing 3 picks and still winning. Playing the Football team in the wild card. Playing at your home stadium for the super bowl. Covid. Whatever the hell made the chiefs offensive line disappear. Making the playoffs at 7-9......with your only win down the stretch being the trash ass Panthers. And your main competition qb wise in the east was mark Sanchez and Ryan f****g Fitzpatrick........ with confidence shattered Matt Ryan and 8 broken ribs Drew Brees in the south...... oh and only having to go thru Pittsburgh twice. Not the 05 or the 08 not even 2010 rosters. No the god damn 01 squad who lost to the special teams unit and the "killer" Bs in 2016.
@@Uemuuyou definitely could NOT but I’d love to see you try. Tom brady is the luckiest individual in NFL history, and maybe even sports history
Not to mention the Seahawks not running the ball 😂
More like the NFL scripting his whole carreer
@@idk-_-Did u not just see how his 2018 Super Bowl was the unluckiest to ever be recorded?
It was impressive seeing how those 2019 Seahawks outskilled everyone. I'm glad to see a media member recognizing their superiority! 😁
Such great little video docs, you can tell a lot of thought goes into both the preparation AND presentation. As long as you guys keep making em, we'll keep watching em!
I say this every video, but this is criminally undersubscribed. TOP TIER quality, engaging and entertaining videos. Keep it up, please. We all need this lol
Thank you my friend!
You continuously make the highest effort, highest quality, And just best videos I have ever seen on RUclips. Keep up everything you're doing, it's absolutely amazing, I am shocked you don't have millions of subscribers!
Thank you!
This is my favourite channel I've found recently. You've got a beautiful combination of storytelling, analysis, and visuals that make these videos better than most of professional TV.
I could watch you talk about sports all day. The end of each video is always ambiguous. Makes me want more!
You make wonderful content, I wish you’d upload more frequently. Great job once more!
Tbh the content is that good BECAUSE he uploads this infrequently.
You can't do this kind of research and presentation in mass produced content
I’m well aware of that, it’s just expressing my enjoyment for his content
"Luck is unpredictable, but talent takes advantage of it" Steve Sabol
These videos are so awesome. So excited every time you post
One of the most underrated sport channels on RUclips! Each video is well thought through, you have a great screen personality and i always click instantly when you post a video.
This video tells me teams should focus on 'controlling what you can control'.
WRs and DBs with better hands means less drops. RBs who can hold the ball means less fumbles. Reliable kickers means less missed kicks. Defensive players who can get strip sacks (which is a skill) means more fumbles for the other team.
If you commit less turnovers than the other team, and you make your kicks, you win.
You increase your floor that way, but you also dramatically decrease your ceiling. Even though winning requires luck, you don't see baseball teams stacked with contact hitters who get on base winning the WS. Same in the NFL. Many great "hands" guys are only in the NFL because of their hands, they lack other things like size, speed, or explosiveness. At RB it is even worse. It's fine to have one or two of those guys maybe, but you have to have a guy who can just WIN against his man every now and then
Gee this is a dumb comment. You're representing exactly what the video is pointing out that's wrong with the common narrative.
Michael, I love you
These videos are so well made, keep up the good work!
Love your videos man. Need YOU to get lucky and have the algorithm push your content to more people!
It’s remarkable how “unlucky” the Chiefs were for 47 years when they didn’t have an elite quarterback. A team has to be talented enough to take advantage of breaks.
Yes but then they play another team with a similarly elite QB (I didn't say the same I said similar so calm tf down) and they def get some luck. You know what I'm talking about.
Are you implying Purdy is elite? @@jd229
Mahomes has thrown bad (read: his fault) interceptions in the 2nd halves in three of his four Super Bowls-and all when the Chiefs were losing.
At that point, you’re quite at the mercy of the opponent and luck.
@@coyohma8947 and yet he was primarily responsible for winning two of the three.
Congrats, you made a point the video itself made. You did it.
This was a great video. Very well made. With that said, I would push back on a lot of the things you're considering as Luck. If you take a bunch of averages and then point out an outlier, sure you can call that lucky, but at the end of the day it wasn't the wind, it was the players. A dropped interception is a physical skill based mistake by the defense, that muffed punt is the fault of the blocker Luter and McCloud. Luter was unaware of the balls position and McCloud dropped what would have been a recovery by the 9ers while he scrambled for it. Even if we consider the moment of a kick, anything past a quick unpredictable gust of wind is either a mistake or a good play by the kicker. Of course luck has some say in football, but considering the amount of examples that could've been changed by a skill play on either side, I didn't find all the stats convincing, and I think there's something to be said for playing as a more buttoned up team that makes less mistakes when it counts in any given game.
Finally someone said it. This invalides every sport. If someone's lack of skill is boiled down to luck than what is the point of the sport at all. This guy assumes a field goal or a drop is luck period. Ridiculous
So glad I found your channel, you make incredible content. Congrats and thank you!
Incredible vid all around - analysis, presentation, format / style. Exactly what I’m looking for in data driven sports vids
Thank you James!
As a Chiefs fan I remember how lucky Brady was that we were half a second offsides in the AFC championship game and it was actually called and then how unlucky we were to have 4/5 starting O-Lineman injured in Bucs-Chiefs SB 😭
To be fair we have also been very lucky especially when u look at the last super bowl there were several freak events that helped us like the Greenlaw injury for instance
@@cuber3603 And yet, somehow even though Mahomes loses Tyreek, gets his ankle all wanged up, etc., he still wins the Super Bowl. Then this year, even though the Chiefs WRs led the league in drops and had the #1 and #2 most-penalized players in the NFL on their squad, they win a second straight. Bad luck like crazy--and they go back-to-back. Luck, schmuck.
Remember how lucky the Chiefs were that Devin McCourtey dropped a game losing INT by Mahomes in that game with 2 mins left? Or is that all you revisionist historians got?
@@israelp348 if Devin could catch he’d be a wide receiver… that’s a skill issue! 😉
in the chiefs case: when u have arrived at the afc champ game every year since 2018, and u have advantages in the most impactful positions, and u have a coach that makes u practice and simulate unlikely scenarios? when does a team create they're own luck? 2018 patriots won in the afc champ game because of a int that got called back, were they're lucky or was the chiefs undisciplined? And I would characterize possessions on a snap per snap basis, because a possession in the nfl is a series of actions compared to the nba were u have one shot at the rim and instantly change
Right, this video is looking at football from a purely statistical perspective, and there is so much more going on that its hard to look at almost any play and really call it luck.
While I see what you mean, each basketball possession includes passes, dribbles, handoffs, and can have more than one shot if you get an offensive rebound.
While each play in football can have lots of similar series of actions, they’re 1) not changing possession on incompletions or out of bounds, and 2) also not usually played from the red zone, unlike most of a basketball possession taking place in the half court.
And it also comes down to what the league rulebooks call a possession, so your gripe is perhaps more with the printed word than this video, lol.
Fantastic video, though I might counter - what truly constitutes an event as 100% chance? For me, the saying of “luck is when preparation meets hard work” is completely valid, as just like you mentioned, it acknowledges luck. But within football, there is a much more limited range of outcomes for a majority of the scenarios you presented than you gave off. While any of those outcomes could occur, many can be mitigated.
It's been a real joy to watch your videos my guy 👌
So you really believe the NFL is not rigged ? Come on !
It was literally created by the Mafia as a game to gamble on. They try to hide that nowadays but for those of us old enough to remember, we are not fooled. It used to hold the games in the middle of horse racing tracks and you would place your bets and get your tickets before the game started then cash em after if you won.
Phenomenal production and presentation. I felt myself glued to this video.
Thanks Bobby!
The content and production value of this channel is awesome. Also, your voice makes the video that much better as well.
Awesome video as always. Best channel on RUclips. Look forward to the next one.
One of the best sports creators out there right now. Great work man!
You have quickly become one of my favorite RUclipsrs, love these videos
Thoroughly enjoy your videos and the intellect and intelligence you bring to them and for people who refute analytics
Outstanding. You explained and more importantly, analysed this, so clearly.
This is the Jimmy high roller of the NFL. Love your content! Best football production value out there
Unreal production value. Can’t believe u don’t have a million yet, keep it up
My favorite RUclipsr right now. These videos are very well produced and edited. Notifications always on 🙏
I honestly cannot understand how the hell you still haven’t reached 100k subs considering how much effort you put in each one of your videos, keep it going!!!❤
He's getting biggerrrrrr!!!! Very deserved. He always released high quality stuff!!!
Bro these videos are so insanely good you're about to have a bunch of subscribers
High quality video. Great work
I love these videos, keep up the great work!
Another great video Michael. I'm glad you mentioned it was difficult to quantify "luck." I'd imagine one tough thing about quantifying "luck" is not only identifying it, but also applying its weight during the course of a game. WPA makes sense for this, but then again it (WPA) takes for granted everything that happened to that point. In other words, the only way for luck to decide a game is for the game to be close in the first place. When coaches speak of luck as just "preparation + opportunity," they are at least implicitly acknowledging this truth.
Yet another great video! Love your stuff.
One phrase I want to enter in the sports lexicon is Random is random. Originally a buddy of mine used it to describe the random number generator in video games. However it can definitely be applied in sports. Excellent video. It's a shame my guy isn't at 100K yet.
You could be the next Jon Bois. Keep it up dude. This is the first video of yours I've watched but I'll keep coming back if you keep posting stuff like this. Awesome video
Thank you my friend!
Wow, what a video! Great work, loved this
If you want a movie showcasing luck like this, do Nebraska football. They have some insane anomalies happening.
Like averaging top 25 in recruiting, but having 50 more turnovers than any other power 5 program the last 15 years.
You are an incredible content creator, views will come, keep grinding!
Ofc my team gets to be on the unfortunate side of the luck video😭 I expected it also makes me feel better in some ways. Awesome video as always this channel deserves so much more recognition
Thank you Lee! Given enough time…we all (painfully) have to experience being on the wrong side of luck
“A few inches changed everything” I feel that
It was difficult to navigate this…might have had to remove a few lines…
Seahawks fan; instantly subscribed when i saw that jersey on
I'm so happy the algorithm brought me to your channel
Whoever the editor is for this, you do a great job
Ridiculously good quality vids. Keep going man, I think u can really succeed at this
Thanks Joel! Much appreciated
About the OTs, 2019 was the first year the Seahawks had Geno Smith, and he did the coin flips and he had a knack for them
Just found this channel and I think I don’t know but you are seeing the deeper code underneath- fascinating more subs are definitely deserved here
Thank you!
How can we support you even more - show us the code in the matrix!
Absolutely love these videos
Insane Video Quality!!
Bro this was such a good vid keep it up man
First off this is an incredible video. One thing I'm wondering though, is how lucky or unlucky were the teams at the top/bottom of the charts (in quantified terms)? Like 1 in how many teams would you expect to have the luck of the chiefs or vikings over the playoffs or regular seasons? Also did you test your results to see if the total pool fits a bell curve like you would expect?
Michael, I love you and your content. Thanks
Its true that luck affects many aspects of life. It is interesting you identified 4 significant luck events in an NFL game. While doing that can be useful, there are so many other elements of luck in an NFL game that picking four may not be appropriate. I think injury is a major luck factor, that is perhaps worthy of a top 4 luck event list. And the kicking example I don't think was shown correctly. Not all NFL kickers have the same skill. The Chief's kicker (a year or two ago) had a 58 yard attempt that he made, but was made to do over for some reason I forget. The re-try was made also, but the opposing coach called time out to ice him on this 2nd try. The 3rd kick was also made, and none of them had any doubt. Now, I agree that a missed kick less than 30 yards you could say is luck for the opponent as all kickers in the NFL can and should make those. But, not all missed kicks are due to bad luck, as teams try kicks beyond their kicker's range. And, in my view, there is luck on every play. From the play called by the offense to the defensive play matching up. There are people slipping, and blockers missing hand placements or runners using the wrong foot work or hitting the wrong gap. We tend to want to say that whatever luck occurs late in the game is somehow proof that luck controlled the game, but really there is luck from opening coin toss through the last play. To prove this, didn't the Miracle in the Meadowlands end on the leading team failing a "kneel down", aka "victory formation"? Failed by not running the easiest play to execute. Failing to not recover the fumble. Failed by not tackling Herm as he ran in for a TD. I mean, as far as "most luckiest thing you can have", I think its that, but it didn't make the list. Enjoyed it.
Masterful video. Really appreciate this analysis.
Thank you my friend!
keep up the quality work man. youll blow up soon enough
Great video, man!
Subbed for production quality, awesome! Also you look and sound like Joel McHale imo.. 😂 nice video!
This page is amazing
I love your football videos, please make more!!
What an amazing video!
Great video. People sometimes like to pretend like certain sports are exactly like chess where everything is carefully planned out and determined by pure skill. But sometimes the random bounce of the ball creates variance in the short term. You're right, in a league with only 17 regular season games, those little short term bounces can have a huge impact
Yes.
I would love to see a video like this for NASCAR. It’s probably the sport where luck is most involved. A blown tire, engine trouble, or another driver’s mistake could end your day to no fault of your own.
Great video man, just one question if you still have that spredsheet I would like to take a look over it if possable.
I love that you showed your team! Go Hawks!
Attributing a team's performance solely to "luck" is an oversimplification. Football, like most complex systems, is deterministic - if you could measure and account for all relevant variables, the outcomes would become predictable.
However, the problem with that perspective is that it's nearly impossible to account for every single variable that influences a team's success. There are simply too many complex, interconnected factors at play.
Reducing team performance to luck alone is therefore an incomplete analysis. The reason why the data may suggest some teams are "inherently lucky" is likely because there are unknown variables that have not been sufficiently accounted for.
The simpler explanation is that the apparent "luck" of teams like the Chiefs over a 5-year span is actually a function of unmeasured factors that contribute to their sustained success. With insufficient data, it's easy to fall back on luck as an explanation. But in reality, the complex nature of football means that a more comprehensive analysis of all relevant variables would be required to truly understand a team's performance trends.
I look forward to hearing your response.
This video but with bad ref calls would be amazing.
People make fun of it but some managers in the premier league will mention expected goals. This is indirectly mentioning luck along with finishing ability. Love the video man!
Dang these videos are so good
Road to 100k. Keep it up big dog
Banger video, Wholly crap!!! Still sad as a 49ers fan😭😭😭
how do you have under a 10ok subs man this is amazing quality content
Another incredible video
Man that was an excellent video
Thanks Brady!
Such a great video man
Thank you!
Outstanding. Incredible. Beautiful.
This channel is incredible
Thanks Jacob!
Great video, i’m lucky to have found it
Need to see this for Nebraska football